Congrats fellow playoff-er, you've made it through 13 grueling weeks and have earned a spot in your league's fantasy playoffs. While some of you may still have a week of the regular season left with your playoffs starting Week 15, this will still be helpful to try and get into the playoffs if you need some extra help in your Week 14 matchup. For me, similar to last year, it was polar opposites how I did in my two leagues. 1st out of 14 in my PPR, 9th out of 12 in my standard (probably should have been worse). So hopefully you made the playoffs in at least one of your leagues and have a chance to become your league's fantasy football champion. This article will give you some tips, matchups, and things that I personally like to do to get an edge in the final three weeks of the season.
Back It Up
I mentioned this in my mid season fantasy football article, but it bears repeating. The ultimate equalizer/team destroyer, is injuries. It's great that Jamaal Charles is playing lights out this year, but if he goes down, I doubt anyone on your bench can replace him. There's also a good chance that one of your other league mates will pick up his backup the next week off the waiver wire. That is why this week, not after your star player gets injured is when you should pick up their back up regardless if he's a health risk or not.
The reason why you didn't carry a backup during the regular season is because you wanted to stash a player or were looking for potential. It's Week 14 and the fantasy season ends Week 16. The only player of note that still has yet to return is Ravens' tight end Dennis Pitta, and they're not even sure if he'll come back (Aaron Rodgers is also coming back, but I doubt he was dropped in your league). Michael Crabtree is back, Shane Vereen is back, Percy Harvin is on the way. At this point, there's really no star player to stash on one's bench in hopes that they will explode in the fantasy playoffs. With that in mind, you should have space on your bench for a backup.
For example, in my PPR league I have Drew Brees. I've started him every game this year, except his bye obviously, and he has had zero injury concerns. Even with two matchups against the Panthers looming, he's still a top 5 QB play in fantasy. Having said that, I'm still going to pick up a quarterback off the waiver wire this week. Thankfully I have a bye this week, but if Brees goes down in Week 14, I would be sunk in the playoffs without a decent option. The last thing you want is a situation like this and be forced to start Brandon Weeden when your opponent has Peyton Manning.
If you've made it this far, chances are your starting lineup looks about the same week to week. Assuming no injuries, I plan on starting the same nine players in my PPR league the rest of the way. You might have one or two players you swap in and out, but the point is that you should have room to get your backups. It's always good to be prepared, and even more important once the playoffs start.
Matchups
Although matchups can determine whether or not to start borderline players, it is not a reason to bench your studs. This past week, I still started Brees in Seattle, DeSean Jackson against Patrick Peterson and the Cards, and Vincent Jackson against a strong Carolina defense. Still winning my matchup probably made it easier to handle, but I'm not sorry I started any of them even if some of my bench players outscored them. The last thing you want is to put a Brees or Tom Brady on your bench, only to see them throw for 350 yards and 4 TDs. Even if you have a stud player going up to Seattle, I would still play them. Brees certainly struggled there last night, but keep in mind that rookie Mike Glennon threw for a pair of TDs and zero interceptions there, so they can be beat.
You should mainly watch matchups when thinking about defenses and kickers. Kicker is probably the hardest position to predict in fantasy. In a dream scenario, you want what happened with the Colts on Sunday. You want a good enough offense to move the ball facing a good enough defense to stop them when they get close to the end zone. A lot of the experts will rank kickers on potent offenses higher, but sometimes an offense can be too potent. Denver put up 35 points this weekend, but K Matt Prater only netted you 5 points. Compare that to the Colts who put up 22 points, but K Adam Vinatieri put up 20. I would say that easy matchups are actually dangerous for kickers, and you should look for matchups against middle of the road defenses.
Defense, on the other hand, is all about good matchups. Unless you own a team like the Seahawks or 49ers, chances are you choose defenses based on matchups week to week. A sound strategy and one that I used in both my leagues. The main thing to keep in mind is the difference between fantasy and reality. For fantasy purposes, the Jets' defense is lousy. They don't get a lot of turnovers and have to deal with short fields due to Geno Smith being so inept. In reality, however, they're a pretty stout defense. They pressure the QB, knock down passes, and make it difficult to move the football. You should also keep this in mind when looking for favorable matchups against offensive teams.
The Buccaneers, for example, are 3-9 and starting a rookie QB. Start whichever defense is playing them every week right? Not quite. They really don't turn the ball over that often as Glennon has only five interceptions in nine career starts. Two of them came in his first start against the talented Cardinals secondary, so I'll give him a bit of a pass for that one. The offense isn't going to light up the scoreboard, but it's not going to turn the ball over either, which is what you need from a fantasy defense. Be sure to tread carefully if you think you have a "good" matchup.
Safe Play vs Boom or Bust
Now that the playoffs have started, getting the most points is irrelevant. Points For is normally the first tiebreaker, but now it doesn't matter if you win by 1 or 100. A win advances you to the next round. With that in mind, you should seriously evaluate whether or not to play your safe players or your boom or bust players. An example of a safe player would be Pierre Garcon. You know he's going to get a good amount of targets, but is stuck in an offense that likes to run the ball and has no one else as a viable threat to draw coverage away from Garcon. That means, especially in PPR leagues, he'll get you solid production based on sheer volume, but will never approach the monster numbers a Calvin Johnson or AJ Green can put up.
An example of a boom or bust type player is Vincent Jackson. Speaking from personal experience, Jackson has been very up and down this year. Indeed, his lows have been bad, but his highs have been phenomenal. 114 yards and 2 TDs in Week 6 followed by 138 and 2 TDs in Week 7, and 165 and 1 TD in Week 11. He's proven, unlike someone like Garcon, that he can put up huge numbers, but also proven that he can kill your team with back to back yardage totals of 11 and 28 in Weeks 9 and 10 with zero TDs. Week 9 saw the Bucs face Seattle, so I'll give him a bit of a pass, but against the Miami secondary? C'mon man. The question becomes, how to determine which ones to play?
For starters, I would examine your own team. If your QB and RBs have favorable matchups, perhaps you play your safe option. You know your other team members will put up great numbers, so you just need decent production from this position. If you see a lot of tough matchups, however, I might go with the boom or bust guy. If I have a QB going against Seattle and my RBs going against San Francisco and the Jets, then chances are they won't put up a lot of points. In a PPR league, if I play my safe player, chances are I'll get between 12-18 points. That won't matter though if my other players put up low numbers. That is a scenario where you need the Vincent Jackson 30+ points. He might put up 10 or less as well, but you would have lost either way. You might as well take the risk and hope he booms, rather than take the guaranteed 12-18 knowing there's a good chance that won't be enough.
The other scenario is doing the same thing with your opponent, except reversing the logic. If he has a bunch of players with bad matchups, then play your safe ones. Chances are you won't need huge numbers from that boom or bust player and the safe player will help pad your lead. The final scenario is if you are behind heading into the late games and your opponent has already played all their players. The amount you're down by should determine who to play. Down by 25? Give me a Vincent Jackson or Mike Wallace who have the ability to break a big one. Down by 10? Give me a Steve Smith or Garcon who are guaranteed to see at least 7-8 targets. Know who is who on your roster.
Favorable Matchups
Denver Broncos
As if you needed another reason to start a Bronco. They get the Titans and Chargers at home before heading to Houston where Tom Brady just shredded the Texans' defense. Honestly, the only fear here is they get so far ahead that they pull their starters.
Kansas City Chiefs
If you have Jamaal Charles, he may just win you your title with these matchups. Washington, Oakland, and Indy all await this vaunted Chiefs' running attack and my guess is they'll do nothing to stop it.
San Diego Chargers
This is an endorsement of the entire Chargers' passing attack. They get the Giants and Raiders at home with the Broncos sandwiched in between at Denver. They'll have to throw in that game and the Raiders and Giants' passing defenses are nothing to write home about. Phillip Rivers has played lights out in favorable matchups this year.
Baltimore Ravens
The Vikings and Patriots at home and a game against the Lions in a dome on Monday Night Football. All the Ravens players will be great plays down the stretch, especially if they get Dennis Pitta back in the offense.
Houston Texans
Not only do they get to face the Jags, Colts, and Broncos, but they are the only team that won't have to worry about inclement weather the rest of the year. They go to Jacksonville, get Indy at Lucas Oil, and face the Broncos back at home.
Green Bay Packers
Atlanta at home, indoors at Cowboy stadium, then back home against the Steelers. No matter who is starting at QB, you have to like the matchups those defenses present.
Dallas Cowboys
They get the Bears in Chicago, Green Bay at home, and Washington in DC. Not the best of all weather scenarios, but certainly beatable defenses. Even Romo's December curse may not be enough to hold this offense back.
Philadelphia Eagles
Honestly, I think the Eagles have a good chance to put up 35+ points the rest of the year. The Lions at home, in Minnesota's dome, and then at the Bears. This offense moves at a million miles per hour, and should hit the turbo boosters against these porous defenses.
Bad Matchups
New Orleans Saints
Don't bench Drew Brees or Jimmy Graham. They do, however, have some tricky opponents. They face the Panthers twice in a home and home in Weeks 14 and 16. Getting the Rams in a dome certainly helps, but the Saints have played poorly on the road and the Rams have a great pass rush.
Indianapolis Colts
This may be the most brutal three game stretch in the NFL. In Cincinnati where the Bengals' defense has been unstoppable, Houston at home, and in Kansas City. Any Andrew Luck owners who somehow managed to make it to the playoffs, I would be concerned.
Tennessee Titans
Their Week 16 matchup against Jacksonville provides some relief, but Chris Johnson owners might not even make it that far. Week 14 has them going to Denver and Week 15 welcomes the Cardinals to town. I know the Broncos can be thrown on, but it's likely the only ownable player on this team is CJ?K (maybe Kendall Wright). Denver is ranked 7th against the run, Arizona is ranked 4th.
There you have it folks. Not too many brutal fantasy playoffs for teams, but a lot of favorable matchups. Good luck to all in your quest for the title!
Matty O
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