1st place regular season, 3rd place playoffs (14-team PPR), 9th place (12-team Standard). This season had its share of ups and downs, twists and turns. In my PPR league, I started off okay, then rattled off seven straight wins to win the regular season. In my standard league, I felt like the Dallas Cowboys as of late. Just when it looked like I was on a roll and creeping into the playoffs, I suffered a big loss when I really needed a win and put myself behind the 8 ball. Now that it's over, it's time to take a look back at all the craziness of these past several weeks.
Best Draft Pick
DeMarco Murray (RB - Cowboys)
Honestly, I didn't really even want to draft him. I put him under my bust section in my fantasy football preview because of his past injury concerns and the Cowboys' baffling refusal to run the football. Both of those things actually happened, but he was still a great pick. I was able to snag him late in the 3rd round of a 14 team league with players like Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden taken ahead of Murray in the same round. By the time my pick rolled around, the value was too good to pass up. He did miss his usual couple games (Weeks 7 and 8), but excelled when he was on the field. As an added bonus, he played his best football at the end of the year including a three TD performance in Week 13 when a lot of on the fence owners needed a win to secure a playoff berth. His injuries still concern me, but Murray could be a first round, top 10 pick next year in fantasy drafts.
Worst Draft Pick
Stevan Ridley (RB - Patriots)
My standard league actually had a lot of candidates for this spot, but I'll go with Ridley due to the frustration he caused me. As Ridley owners know, he started off the season at a snail's pace posting rushing yards of 46, 40, 35, and 53. This is from a guy who was a second round pick in most leagues. Then, all of a sudden, he caught fire and played good football from Weeks 6-9. Unfortunately, that's also the time when the rest of my team decided to play their worst football, as I went 1-3 during that stretch. Then, following the Patriots' bye, Ridley put up a solid game in Carolina, but his chronic fumbling problem reared its ugly head once again as he was back in Bill Belichick's doghouse. He would never fully recover from that game as he lost carries to LeGarrette Blount, Brandon Bolden, and Shane Vereen. He was even a healthy inactive for the Week 13 Houston game. After this season, it's tough to tell what Ridley's future holds.
Best Waiver Pickup
Zac Stacy (RB - Rams)
I was fortunate enough to pick him up in both my leagues, mostly due to the fact that I had been starting the other Rams' running back Daryl Richardson as my RB2. Had I not been starting Richardson, I probably wouldn't have even picked Stacy up. I thought he would post okay numbers based on sheer volume, but nothing more than that. Instead, Stacy became a carrying and TD machine as he did his best to make the Rams forget about Steven Jackson. Just watching him was impressive as he always seemed to move the pile forward and read blocks well. I wound up trading him in my PPR league for DeSean Jackson so he still was an asset to my team when I picked him up. It's hard to find that kind of production off the waiver wire. Stacy will be a hot commodity next year as he will have a year under his belt, as the Rams hopefully find a franchise quarterback in the upcoming draft.
Worst Waiver Pickup
Jacob Tamme (TE - Broncos)
Of course, the one time I get to start a Bronco it doesn't work out for me. With Jordan Reed concussed, I was in quite a bind at tight end. Then, in Week 14, Wes Welker got injured and it was Tamme who filled in at Welker's slot position. Welker was out Week 15, and I was happy. All the experts were saying that Tamme would fill Welker's slot role and, in a PPR league, that means a good stat line. Unfortunately, that honor wound up going to Andre Caldwell of all people as Tamme was held to one catch for nine yards. This was in the semi-finals of my playoffs and was one of the reasons why I played in the third place game instead of the Championship. Apart from the every week starters (Gronk, Jordan Cameron, Reed, Gonzo, Julius Thomas, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates), tight end was very hit or miss this year. I missed badly on this one.
Player I'm Glad I Didn't Trade
Drew Brees (QB - Saints)
Believe it or not, there was a time when I proposed a trade that would send Drew Brees away and put Eli Manning on my team (a few other players were involved, but these two would have swung my season). Let me justify this proposal. It was right after Week 1 when Brees did his Brees thing and put up good numbers, but Eli also had a monster game as he threw for 450 yards and 4 TDs (passing TDs were worth 6 pts. in this league). Being a Cowboys fan, I knew the NFC East, Manning's division, had extremely bad defenses so I was intrigued. He had Victor Cruz and a healthy Hakeem Nicks so the weapons were there. Thankfully, this trade was rejected. Had it not been, I likely would have wound up towards the bottom of my league as Manning went in the tank, throwing interception after interception.
Best Sleeper Prediction
Alshon Jeffery (WR - Bears)
A surprising amount of options to choose from, but I'll go with Jeffery for you Bears fans out there. He was in my Sleeper section in 2012 as well, but I put him in the 2013 Sleeper section again because I knew he would be a monster. Jeffery has freakish athletic ability and made Calvin Johnson-like catches this year. He had a couple dud games (Weeks 2, 6, and 12), but his highs were awesome. The best moment for Jeffery owners was a 249 yard, 2 TD performance in a losing effort in Week 13 in Minnesota. I think it will be very interesting to see what the Bears do with their WR situation now. Do they keep both and try to build a juggernaut on offense or trade one to help out the defensive side of the ball which was atrocious this year? Marshall has one more year left on his deal so it will be interesting to see if they try and get something for him instead of just letting him walk.
Worst Sleeper Prediction
Ryan Broyles (WR - Lions)
Lots of options to choose from again, but I'll stay in the NFC North and go with a hugely disappointing Lions receiver. Broyles showed some promise last year and Titus Young was out of the picture so he was the clear number three behind Megatron and Nate Burleson. The Lions like to throw it all over the place so I thought Broyles would really step it up this year and be a valuable part of fantasy teams, especially in PPR. Things didn't go as planned as he never topped 34 yards in a game, put up multiple zeroes, and ultimately injured himself once again. After excelling at the University of Oklahoma, Broyles' stock has plummeted after only a couple years in the league. I doubt he is part of the Lions' plan moving forward.
Best Bust Prediction
Robert Griffin III (QB - Redskins)
There were certainly players in my bust sections that did worse than RG3, but with all the hype coming into this year, especially after the way he took the league by storm last year, he certainly did not live up to expectations in 2013. He did have a few good games here and there, but it was obvious that his speed wasn't where it was last year coming off his injury. As I've mentioned before, he's really not that great of a passer so when he can't run, or at least have the threat of the run, he will struggle. See the Denver game where, given Washington's porous defense, RG3 was going to have to match Peyton Manning point for point. RG3 finished with 132 yards, 1 TD, and 3 turnovers. He eventually got shut down at the end of the year, and wasn't even available for owners in the Championship week. It'll be interesting to see what moves are made in Washington this off season.
Worst Bust Prediction
DeMarco Murray (RB - Cowboys)
See above.
Other Notes
First Round Minefield
In 2013, the first round of most drafts was littered with busts. Adrian Peterson had decent numbers, but didn't do anything the final three weeks of the season for owners. Arian Foster and Doug Martin haven't played a snap since Week 7. Ray Rice and Trent Richardson were the kings of under performing this year. CJ Spiller had injury problems once again and shared the backfield with aging Fred Jackson. It was a mess at the top and you had to pray to get out alive. Luckily I wound up selecting Megatron (PPR) and Marshawn Lynch (Standard). If you made it out of the first round with either of those two, Jamaal Charles, or LeSean McCoy, you were probably on the right track.
Know When To Cut Bait
When it comes to trading players, or even clearing up a roster spot, it's important to know when a player is going to start struggling. It's important to know why a player is excelling and if that will continue or is just a phase. I'll use two Patriots that I owned as an example. Kenbrell Thompkins was a guy I selected in both my leagues because Tom Brady was throwing him the ball, Gronk and Aaron Hernandez were out, and Wes Welker was gone. His stock was at its highest after Week 4 when he posted back to back great numbers with a two TD performance in Week 3 and a 127 yard, 1 TD performance in Week 4. With that in mind, I pulled the trigger and traded him in both my leagues as it is rare for a rookie to keep on that pace, and Gronk was coming back. Thompkins stalled the rest of the way and was basically a non factor after Week 4.
Stevan Ridley, however, is an example of where I held on for too long. Granted, it was much harder to see this coming, and all it took was one fumble to make him irrelevant. Still, trading him when his value was at his peak would have saved me frustration, and possibly my team. Instead, I decided to ride it out as Ridley did absolutely nothing down the stretch. My team subsequently packed it in and we settled for the consolation bracket.
Who Would've Thunk It?
The best, and sometimes most frustrating, part about fantasy football is the uncertainty. Who would've guessed that the Giant's offense would have been this bad? Who would've guessed the Chiefs and Panthers defenses would have been this good? Who would've guessed that owners would be favoring Josh McCown over Jay Cutler? The uncertainty is what makes it so exciting. Like any other type of gambling, you can do all the analysis and improve you odds all you want, but all it takes it that one number or hand to trump you. You might have Peyton Manning and Jamaal Charles, but if they put up bad games and your opponent has some backup wide receiver break off an 80 yard TD run, you could be in trouble. This season was great, and 2014 should be even funner. Hopefully you'll play fantasy football again, or try it out if you haven't already.
Matty O
Hope you had a Happy Holiday and have a Happy New Year
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