If you missed the Auburn-Alabama game yesterday, I truly feel sorry for you. Even the SportsCenter highlights don't do it justice as the game was thrilling throughout. It was arguably the greatest college football game I've ever seen, second only to the USC-Texas National Championship game in 2006. The thing that perhaps gives USC-Texas the edge was that it was for all the marbles, both teams were undefeated, it was played at the Rose Bowl, and it was during USC's 2000s dynasty. Still, Auburn-Alabama had everything you could want as a football fan.
It had a blown coverage by Alabama early in the game, only to see Auburn QB Nick Marshall miss WR Ricardo Louis who was open by about 15 yards. It had a bobbled snap on an Alabama punt that got blocked. It had three missed Alabama field goals, which caused Nick Saban to go for it on fourth down when they were in field goal range only to be stuffed. It had a 99 yard TD pass from Alabama to take the lead in the fourth (a lead I thought they would not give up). It had a desperation, possibly illegal pass by Nick Marshall with under a minute left to tie the game. I'm still not sure why the refs didn't at least look at that play as he was very close to being past the line of scrimmage. It had a scenario where the game was over, one second was put back on the clock, and Auburn fans were booing the decision. Coincidentally, this led to the field goal attempt by Alabama, leading to the miraculous return to win the Iron Bowl for Auburn.
While the game itself was great, the mess it created at the top of the rankings is not. Ohio State fans would argue that there is no mess, but I would beg to differ. Florida State is the obvious number one, but behind them is an Ohio State team with a weak schedule and a couple close calls, a one loss Auburn team with the most momentum of any of the top teams after beating 'Bama, and a Missouri team whose only loss came in double overtime to a ranked South Carolina team. Now the debate begins, but a lot can still change. Let's take a look at what these teams face and their case for being in the title game.
Florida State
FSU is the obvious number one. If all three teams at the top win out (Mizzou plays Auburn in the SEC title game so one will lose), they are probably the only one that is guaranteed a spot in the title game. Apart from a fluky close game against Boston College, they have been blowing teams out of the water. They score points and prevent points as they have ripped the three ranked teams that they have played by a combined 155-28. They are a scary team, and it will take a great effort to beat them.
I only mention them here to say that they still have one more game, and Duke might give them trouble. Let's be honest, it's a long shot, but head coach David Cutcliffe has his Blue Devils playing up to their potential. There's really nothing in the stats to suggest an upset here, but you never know. If the Blue Devils do somehow pull the upset, it might still be possible for FSU to play for the title game. If Ohio State loses as well, then FSU, OSU, and the SEC Champion will all have one loss. Between the three, even losing the ACC Championship, I would still take FSU and the SEC Champion to battle it out for the National Championship.
Ohio State
Anyone who roots for the Buckeyes probably read articles like this and roll their eyes. They don't care about those one loss SEC teams, OSU points to the fact that they have zero losses. Undefeated. If you go undefeated in a major conference, shouldn't you get to play for the title? Well Buckeye fans, allow me to point out a few things working against you. For starters, OSU's schedule is certainly the weakest out of the four teams at the top. FSU's is pretty close, but they have demolished their opponents. OSU had close calls against Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and also gave up 35 points to Illinois. As an Illinois alum, I can safely say that allowing 35 points to the Illini, regardless of the score, is embarrassing.
There's also the fact that of the four teams at the top, OSU probably has the toughest match up, and that includes the SEC title game. I'll mention it later on in this article, but I actually think Auburn got a good draw with Mizzou and will handle their business. Michigan State, however, presents OSU's kryptonite; a good defense. The Spartans are fourth in the nation in points allowed, only giving up an average of 11.8 points per game. The thing about the Buckeyes is that they have a prolific offense, but their defense has been carved up this year, the latest of which being giving up 41 points to an unranked Michigan team (could have been worse had the Wolverines played for overtime). Although the Spartans don't have the firepower on offense that the Buckeyes do, they should be able to move the ball on that defense, while the Buckeyes will find a difficult time doing the same on the Spartans. As I mentioned before, if the top three teams all have one loss at the end of the year, I think the Buckeyes will be on the outside looking in.
Missouri & Auburn
I'll group these two teams together because they are playing each other, and both face similar scenarios. If they win, they will have a strong case to play in the title game, even over an undefeated Ohio State team. Auburn's list of impressive victories: Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, Georgia (when Aaron Murray was healthy), and Alabama. Missouri's list of impressive victories: at Georgia, at Ole Miss, and the clinching game yesterday against Texas A&M. Auburn has the best chance of jumping Ohio State simply because of the way their past two games have ended. Everyone has at least seen the highlights, and beating Alabama the past couple years has been no easy task. So now the SEC Championship might act as a preview of the playoff system next year. Win and you're in.
Personally, I thought Alabama would beat Auburn by a comfortable margin. Auburn was, and still is, a one dimensional team. If anyone can scheme to beat a one dimensional team, it's Nick Saban and the athletes he has on defense. I thought they would take that away, force Nick Marshall to throw to beat them, and shut them down. Alas, that was not the case as Auburn gashed Alabama for almost 300 yards. Now Auburn gets a less athletic Mizzou team that I think will be over matched. It's crazy to think that either of these teams are in the title game considering the awful seasons they had last year. An OSU loss will certainly help their cause, but either Mizzou or Auburn will walk out of this game with a victory over a top four team. On the last week of the season, how would they not jump OSU in that scenario?
Bottom Line
Here are the two most likely scenarios: FSU wins, OSU wins, and Auburn wins or FSU wins, OSU loses, and Auburn wins. In either scenario, I think it will be, and should be, Florida State facing Auburn for the National Title. The Big Ten has a less than favorable reputation as being a dominant football conference anymore, and OSU has its own bad reputation of not showing up recently in BCS games against teams from other conferences. I think that, coupled with the momentum that Auburn has built the past couple weeks will vault them past an undefeated OSU team if the Buckeyes win. OSU would need to blow out the Spartans and Auburn would have to play a sloppy game and barely get by Mizzou for Auburn to get left out. Momentum, history, and strength of schedule are all working against OSU. Can they hang on? Stay tuned.
Matty O
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