Contenders
Brazil
While they haven't looked as dominant as they did during the Confederations Cup last summer, they still have to be considered a contender for the title. They currently lead their group and their remaining game is against the weakest team in their group in Cameroon. Even though they tied Mexico, it required Mexican goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa to make brilliant save after brilliant save in order for the result to end in a tie. Their opening round knockout stage match is shaping up to be a tough one with either the Netherlands or Chile waiting in the wings. With home country advantage and skill all around the squad, however, they should make a run in the tournament.
Netherlands
While their destruction of Spain got more attention, I was actually more impressed with their game against Australia, especially considering how mediocre Spain played in their second game against Chile. The Dutch opened the scoring as the Australians made a terrible turnover at center half, allowing Arjen Robben to dribble it all the way from there and slam it home for the first goal. Before assumptions could even be made about the outcome of the match, however, Australia's Tim Cahill struck back with what might be the goal of the tournament. Tied at halftime, the Australians made history and actually led the Dutch as they scored on a penalty shot early in the second half. A quick response by Robin Van Persie crushed Australian momentum as another Dutch goal ten minutes later turned out to be the winner in a 3-2 result. We'll know a lot more about the Dutch after their last match with Chile, but with the offensive explosion they are experiencing at this World Cup, they will be a tough out.
Colombia
Many thought that Colombia should be on upset alert after striker Radamel Falcao was announced out for this squad in the World Cup. Instead, in a relatively weak group, this team has thrived, using its speed to frustrate teams. They've also benefited by being Brazil's neighbors to the northwest as crowd support has been massive for them in both of their games so far (to be fair, the other teams in their group are Greece, Japan, and Ivory Coast). They've been shaky at the back at times, but their attacking play has been fantastic and fun to watch.
France
I was hesitant to call France a contender after the first round of games as they were facing Honduras who had ten men for a large part of the game. With the disaster from 2010 still in the back of my mind, I just wasn't ready to declare them having turned a new leaf. Following their decimation of Switzerland on Friday, however, I think it's time to believe. The Swiss are actually ranked higher than France in the FIFA rankings, but that should change after this tournament. Powered by Karim Benzema, who has carried his Champion's League winning form into the World Cup, France looks like arguably the best team in the tournament. They have yet to trail in this tournament and have won both of their games by at least three goals.
Germany
Nothing against Ghana, but the tie with Germany really shocked me. While Ghana played the US tough in a loss, Germany owned Portugal even before Pepe was sent off. It seemed effortless for them as I dubbed them the best looking team after the first round of games. Similar to the Dutch against Australia, the Germans scored first in their second game, but were met with an immediate response and a quick follow up. All of a sudden, with about 25 minutes left, Ghana had the lead over Germany. The Germans, however, had a quick response of their own as Miraslov Klose capped off a wild span of 20 minutes that saw four goals between the two teams. Similar to the Dutch, I think this was a great test of character by the Germans against a team desperate for a win to stay relevant in the group. While they didn't get the game winning goal like the Dutch, they are still in the driver's seat in their group. Regardless of the other teams in the group, if Germany wins or ties their last game against the US, they will win their group and likely avoid a dangerous Belgium squad in the first round of the knockout stage. Consider this a hiccup as I still see them making at least the semi-finals.
Pretenders
Costa Rica
Perhaps I'm just a sucker for rich soccer traditions, but I still don't believe in this Costa Rican team. Yes, they have two wins in two games, but the first was against a Luis Suarez-less Uruguay squad and the second was against an undisciplined Italian squad that was called for an astounding 11 off sides. They are guaranteed to advance, and it would take the meltdown of all meltdowns to not finish as the winner in the group. Winning the group would be crucial as they would avoid Colombia and get either the Ivory Coast, Japan, or Greece. Despite the soft first round knockout matchup, I think any thoughts of them going deep in the tournament will end sooner rather than later.
Argentina
For a team pegged as one of the contenders at the start of the tournament and placed in this group, Argentina have looked far from impressive. They seem to be waiting for Lionel Messi to provide the attack for this group, and so far he has been able to. Their narrow 1-0, extra time Messi goal game against Iran, however, shows how fine the line they are walking on is. They should still win their group to avoid France, but if they draw Switzerland in the opening knockout round, I think they could see an early exit. While the Swiss loss against France doesn't show it, the Swiss have a very good defensive team. If they manage to lock down Messi, even at the risk of letting others gain space, I think the Swiss could give Argentina trouble.
Ah, My Leg Is Snapped In Half! Oh Wait, I'm Better
The selling of calls is getting ridiculous. Touch a player with your fingernail and he'll go down like he just got shot. I understand doing so as the refs are human and sometimes if all you see is a player flailing in the air, you may give him the benefit of the doubt. From an integrity of the game and reputation standpoint, however, it is extremely frustrating. Once a team gets a lead late in a game, you can bet that a player will stay down and roll around longer than he needs to. After enough time has run off, however, he's back up at 100%. I get that they're trying to run the clock, but faking an injury is not alright in my book.
Now, I'm not opposed to all stalling techniques. When the ball goes out of play and maybe you take a little while to get it back in, that's alright. It's similar to sending the pitching coach out to the mound with the sole intention of giving the guy in the bullpen more time to warm up. Fine. But to fake an injury is a no-no. I get angry when I see the same thing in football when teams run hurry up offenses and defensive players just drop like stones to get some rest. Sorry if you can't keep up, just lay down in the backfield and get called for offsides while you get your rest. It has to be frustrating for the refs as well because it is their responsibility to protect the players on the field. It becomes increasingly difficult to determine injury severity if players are faking them. While you do want to keep the game flowing, you also don't want to have the other team pulling on a guy's arm to get him up if he legitimately just broke his arm.
While officials can't make the determination of real or fake injury, the players can, if they so choose, to stop this practice of delaying the game. Unlike in football where if a player goes down the entire game is stopped, in soccer, you can keep going unless a player is bleeding from the head or something like that. While it is proper etiquette to knock the ball out of play with the expectation that you'll get it back, a team isn't required by any rule to do that. All 11 guys could be down, but a team could keep right on playing if they wanted to. I saw a few games in the Premier League this season where teams just kept playing because they were down and needed a goal, but I've seen plenty of instances where the losing team will stop and play the ball out. While commendable, it not only hinders you from your team goal (winning the match), but also encourages this practice.
Referee: Not An Enviable Job
Controversial calls are nothing new to sports in general, and there have been quite a few in this World Cup already. Regardless of whether a call goes for or against the team I'm rooting for, I rarely try and blame the refs. The first reason is because I don't believe any given call costs a team a game. That call might have made it harder on a team, but unless they played a literal flawless game, there is no way you can blame a ref for a singular call. Let's say for instance, there's a zero-zero game in the 95th minute. Team A has a player in the box, doesn't get fouled by Team B, but the ref calls a penalty. Team A scores, game ends 1-0, and the attack on the refs begin. Well, unless Team B had zero total shots, they have nothing to complain about. Why didn't you do better during the other 94 minutes of the game? Why didn't you play better defense so Team A doesn't even get to the box? Thankfully, most players recognize that this is the case, but the majority of fans have no problem blaming one call for their lost game.
The other thing to realize, particularly in soccer, is that the refs don't get the benefit of replay. There's a lot of contact during any soccer game and the amount of times the ref has to make a call or no call is numerous. They actually do a good job and get the call right most of the time. When they get a call wrong, people watching TV will gladly say how horrible the call was...as they watch it in slow motion with a zoomed in camera. Trying to make a call with two men charging at each other trying to play the ball when one of them is partially obscuring your view is an extremely hard task. The next time a call goes against your team, just remember how difficult the ref's job is and give him a break.
CONCACAF Breakthrough
The Confederation of North, Central American, and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF) looks to finally have broken through in this World Cup. Despite the majority of the nations not being known as soccer powerhouses, the United States, Mexico, and particularly Costa Rica have all played well and are still in position to advance to the knockout round. CONCACAF usually just gets brushed to the side when talking about powerful soccer areas as Europe and South America are the two regions that easily come to mind. In this tournament, however, these three teams have tied Portugal, tied host Brazil, beaten Italy, and beaten Uruguay, and looked good doing so. The US and Mexico still have an uphill battle, but Costa Rica are guaranteed to advance. Hopefully this World Cup improves the reputation associated with this area of the world when it comes to soccer. Exposure and success are critical in getting the talented athletes in the States to play soccer instead of football, basketball, etc.
United States Outlook
There's good news and bad news from tonight's draw with Portugal. The good news is that they are still in the hunt and don't have to beat, or even tie Germany, to advance to the next round. The bad news is that there are still scenarios in place that will allow Ghana or Portugal to take the States' place in the next round. Also, they have to play Germany. While beating the Germans would guarantee them a place in the next round, that is far from likely. Even though the Germans tied Ghana, and the US beat Ghana, it will still be a difficult task. I thought the US played their most emotionally invested game against Ghana, and Germany was caught napping after the ease with which they disposed of Portugal. I expect Germany to come out focused with a different starting lineup from the Ghana game, one that should include Bastian Schweinsteiger who has interestingly been left out of the starting lineup the first two games for Germany.
From the US perspective, it will be interesting to see how they respond after that devastating late goal by Portugal. Clint Dempsey looked at full health so that shouldn't be a concern against Germany but the defense still should be. While they played better than the Ghana game, they still folded when it mattered most. They gave Ronaldo a lot of time and space to cross, then failed to cover Varela who scored the winning goal. With Jozy Altidore out, the US cannot afford to get into shootouts with any team, particularly Germany.
The best scenario for the US, or at least the one that require the least effort by the US, is if Ghana and Portugal tie. If that happens, then the US automatically advances. If there is a winner between Ghana and Portugal, then things get interesting. If Ghana or Portugal wins and the US loses, then they would be tied for points and it would come down to goal differential for the first tiebreaker. The US currently sits at +1 in that category while Ghana is at -1 and Portugal is at -4. Despite their tie today, Portugal is pretty much done for as nothing I've seen by either Ghana or Portugal tells me they can win by six goals over Ghana. Ghana beating Portugal by two, however, is certainly possible. If they win by three and the US loses, then Ghana will actually advance along with Germany. After goal differential, they go to goals scored for. Since I expect the US-Germany game to be low scoring and the Portugal-Ghana game to be anything but, then I would not want it to come down to that tiebreaker if you're a US fan.
Personally, I think the US will drop its game to Germany, Ghana and Portugal tie, allowing the US to advance to the knockout round. While this would guarantee an US advance, it would likely set up a first knockout round game against a very talented Belgium squad. The drama will be at an all time high in Group G this Thursday as both games will be going on at the same time. They both start at 11am central with Portugal-Ghana airing on ESPN2 and US-Germany airing on ESPN. Better find a TV that has the picture in picture function.
Matty O
No comments:
Post a Comment