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Wednesday, June 18, 2014

World Cup Review (1st Round of Group Stage Matches)

Team of the Tournament
Netherlands
Germany could certainly make an argument of their own for this spot, but the way the Dutch beat the defending champion Spanish squad was simply amazing.  What's even more amazing is that they had to come back to do so.  Diego Costa, seen as a traitor in Brazil for playing for Spain, was constantly showered with boos, but was making some promising runs in the first half.  He got good looks a couple of occasions, but failed to finish.  Finally, on another of his runs, he was clipped in the box, as a penalty shot was called.  Spain converted, and it seemed like we were heading towards another classic case of Spain winning and the Dutch underachieving.

Then, in a goal that will forever be remembered, Robin Van Persie made a diving header that looped perfectly over a frozen Iker Casillas into the back of the net.  While it was a huge momentum boost for them going into halftime, it was still tied and Spain was still the defending champs.  In the second half, however, the Dutch absolutely throttled Spain as Spain looked lethargic and old.  The Dutch scored four goals in the second half, including two beauties by Arjen Robben, to cap off their convincing victory.

It is now the Dutch that are in the driver's seat in group B.  While they are in control, this is no time to relax as Chile also got their three points and are certainly capable of challenging the Dutch.  The battle for first place is crucial as the runner up of this group will play the winner of group A.  That winner is most likely to be the host country, Brazil. 

Disappointment of the Tournament
Portugal
It wasn't just that they lost 4-0 to Germany, it was the way they lost.  While you could argue about the quality of the other players on the pitch, the Portuguese boasted the best player in the world in Christiano Ronaldo.  There were questions about his health coming into the match, but from what I saw, he looked fine.  Portugal as a whole, however, was abysmal.  They got a few good looks, particularly in the first half, as they tried to match Germany's attacking play.  At the same time, they also would go on breaks and get opportunities, only to squander them with a silly dribble or pass.

Ronaldo was very demonstrative throughout the match as you could see how upset he was when the Portuguese attack fizzled out.  Despite going down early, Portugal was still within striking distance to tie the match.  The wheels came off, however, when Pepe and Thomas Muller got tangled up.  Pepe took exception for what looked like a regular soccer play, got in Muller's face while he was still on the ground and head butted him.  The referee saw it and gave Pepe a straight red card, banning him from the rest of that game, as well as Portugal's next game against the US.  From that point on, it was almost a moot point that the Germans would win as Portugal couldn't commit as many players to help Ronaldo up front.  One Muller hat trick later, and Portugal find themselves on the outside of their group looking in.

Opportunity Knocks
United States
Staying in Group G, the US was able to get by Ghana on a late header from John Brooks to exorcise demons from the past two World Cups.  They now sit in second place in the group, tied in points with the Germans.  With all the turmoil that the Portuguese are going through, the path is set up for the US to advance.  I still don't think they can beat the Germans, and the Germans will beat Ghana, so it really is a fight for runner up in the group.  There's certainly a couple scenarios where the US could win the group, but they seem unlikely as they would require the Germans to have a drop off in form.

One concern that the US needs to have, and one that Landon Donovan mentioned on ESPN, is the fact that this was such an emotional game and that it is sometimes hard to turn around and play your next match.  The US wanted this game, probably more than any in this group stage, and it showed.  The emotion and effort was there, but still, it only counts as one win.  If they don't take care of business against Portugal, then this exciting win against Ghana will all be for naught. 

Where Is The Defense?
This question seems obvious to ask Spain and Portugal who gave up a combined nine goals, but this could be asked about a lot of teams in the tournament.  Even though the US won, their defense was absolutely atrocious.  Luckily for them, Ghana does not have the best of all strikers.  If they concede those opportunities to Ronaldo next game, then the US could get blown out.  I'm not sure if it was lack of experience, lack of communication, a faulty defensive system, or a combination of the three, but Ghana had people free nearly all game.  The chances were there with Tim Howard making a couple saves, but most shots missing the frame of goal.  They need to shore that up going forward.

Then I look at the host country of Brazil and am not impressed by their defense either.  Even though they wound up winning 3-1, including a very questionable penalty to give them their second goal and take the lead, they gave up some good looks to a talented Croatian squad.  Brazil gets a bit of a pass as their team was clearly focused on attack and was willing to simply outscore Croatia if need be.  They start Dani Alves at defense, even though he's a defensive liability, because he helps so much on the offensive side.  They might be able to get away with sloppy defensive play in the group stages, but the knockout stage will be a completely different story.

Down, But Not Out
Spain
Their destruction by the Dutch was certainly a terrible one, both on paper and watching the game.  Still, you look at this squad and find it hard to believe that this team can't respond in some way.  The best thing Spain has going for them is their bench, which could probably beat a few teams in the World Cup on their own.  The starting lineup is guaranteed to have a few changes before their next match, but the drop off in skill will not be nearly as severe as it would with other, less bench-loaded teams.  Another thing to remember is that, although it wasn't nearly as devastating as this game, they did lose their World Cup opener in 2010.  Then they turned around and won the whole Cup.  I don't think they will win it this year, but to count them out after one game, no matter the final score, would be foolish.  Since Australia will likely get swept by all the teams in this group, Spain's next match against Chile will likely decide who advances with the Dutch.  Win or lose, don't anticipate another blowout.

Uruguay
The highest ranked country in their group, Uruguay now finds itself at the bottom after a shocking opening loss to Costa Rica.  It was a convincing loss as well as Uruguay struggled to find offense, tallying their only goal on a penalty kick.  Uruguay should feel some sense of hope, however, as striker Luis Suarez wasn't fully back to health.  He should play in the next couple games and his talent is such that he can completely change how the Uruguayan squad plays.  He had an outstanding season for Liverpool in 2013 and will look to carry that over into the Cup.  With England falling to Italy, the matchup between Uruguay and England becomes crucial for advancing to the next round.  I don't think Costa Rica continues their upsets, so the Uruguay-England game could be a knockout game in its own right.

Key 2nd Round of Group Stage Matches
June 18th, Spain vs Chile
June 19th, Uruguay vs England
June 20th, Switzerland vs France
June 22nd, Belgium vs Russia
June 22nd, United States vs Portugal

Matty O



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