The HBO show Hard Knocks, which follows a NFL team during training camp and preseason, is entering its ninth season but has yet to select a team. In 2013, the NFL passed a rule that allows the league to force a team to be on Hard Knocks unless they are exempt. Teams can be exempt from being on hard knocks if they have a new head coach, if they have made the postseason in one of the last two seasons, and/or if they were on the show in the last 10 years. Teams can still volunteer to be on Hard Knocks, but if there are no volunteers then the NFL can force a team if they do not meet any of those criteria. This year, the teams that potentially could be forced to appear on Hard Knocks are the Chicago Bears, Buffalo Bills, Arizona Cardinals, New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, and Pittsburgh Steelers.
While there are a couple intriguing names amongst those teams, most of them don't really have much going for them in terms of intriguing storylines and entertainment. With that in mind, I'd like to mention my Top 10 for teams that would be the best for Hard Knocks, regardless of the criteria that exempts teams. Some are from the pool of teams that can be forced to do it, but most are from teams that are exempt, but can still volunteer.
10. Dallas Cowboys
My team, and America's team, is always good for drama. They were on the show back in 2008, so they are exempt from being forced to do it. While that year was entertaining, this year has more intrigue and questions surrounding it. For starters, Tony Romo is coming back from back surgery and has to be seeing his window of opportunity closing in Dallas in win a Super Bowl. Dez Bryant has recently said that he deserves to be paid as one of the top receivers, if not the best receiver, in the game. While I agree with that statement, it will be interesting to see how contract talks go.
While the offensive side of the ball has its storylines, the defensive side is where it gets entertaining because there is so much uncertainty surrounding it. They lost DeMarcus Ware in free agency and Sean Lee once again got injured, this time in OTAs. They will need to find a replacement for both of them during OTAs and training camp. Rod Marinelli, the Cowboys' defensive line coach last year, has been promoted to defensive coordinator. I think this will help out this defense a lot considering the lack of raw talent on the defensive side of the ball. He's going to need to find diamonds in the rough and come up with creative schemes to try and hide some of the glaring weaknesses they have on defense.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are intriguing because of all the newness that they have this year. Lovie Smith is the new head coach, Josh McCown is a new quarterback, Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are two pass catching giants they drafted, and Alterraun Verner is a talented corner coming from Tennessee to try and compensate for the loss of Darrelle Revis. It appears as though the Bucs are trying to replicate what McCown had in Chicago, and that is tall, physical pass catchers that can fight for the ball. In Chicago, McCown had 6'4" Brandon Marshall, 6'3" Alshon Jeffery, and 6'6" Martellus Bennett. In Tampa, McCown will now be throwing to 6'5" Vincent Jackson, 6'5" Evans, and 6'6" Seferian-Jenkins. This is great for replicating the Bears system, but McCown still might not be the starter.
Mike Glennon, the Bucs third round pick last year, had an up and down rookie season, but proved that he can at least do decent in the NFL. While he only finished with 2,608 yards passing, he did have a 19 to 9 touchdown to interception ratio. He only won four games, but pushed the Seahawks to overtime in Seattle before falling by a field goal. I think the battle for starter between Glennon and McCown will be closer than people think as Glennon currently is on the outside looking in.
The departure of Revis, one of the best corners in the game, cannot be overlooked. The Bucs realized that by signing Verner, although I don't think he's reached Revis' skill level yet but I think he can. Add in that Lovie is a defensive minded coach, and I think he can continue to improve this young defense. It probably won't happen this year, but if he can get players to buy into his system and improve as individuals, they should have better showings in the future against division quarterbacks Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton.
8. New York Jets
Similar to the Cowboys, the Jets have already been on Hard Knocks back in 2010. While they were fairly sure of who was going to start on offense back in 2010, things are a bit muddier this time around. Geno Smith, the incumbent, will be battling veteran Michael Vick for the starting job. The big debate going on is do you allow Smith to progress by playing him and having an okay record, or allow Vick to come in and try to produce his Atlanta magic and lead this team to the playoffs? Another issue is the position right behind the QB and the position the QB will be throwing to. The Jets picked up Chris Johnson in free agency who has gone from CJ2K in 2009 to CJBarelyK in 2013, prompting the Titans to part ways with him. A few years ago, it would be a no brainer that he's the starter, but Chris Ivory showed flashes last year and I wouldn't be surprised if there's some kind of split that develops there.
On the outside, the Jets picked up Eric Decker and...no one else. Well, they actually picked up Jacoby Ford and drafted Shaq Evans, but c'mon. Their receiving corps doesn't scare anyone. With Smith, or a less-mobile-than-he-used-to-be Vick starting, I think the Jets should have done more to emphasize getting weapons around both of these QBs. It will be interesting to see who will emerge and develop some kind of chemistry with either one of them.
7. Seattle Seahawks
I wouldn't say this team has a lot of questions at positions, but they would surely be entertaining (except Marshawn Lynch). The obvious ringleader for this show would be Richard Sherman and the Legion of Boom. I think he, more than anyone in the league, would relish having cameras around 24/7. Then you have the rah rah coach Pete Carroll who shows his emotion more than a lot of other coaches in the NFL. The only real positional battle that would be intriguing is out at WR. They lost Golden Tate to the Lions, and the only new players at that position are three rookies they drafted this year. Their best WR is Percy Harvin, but he's been anything but a picture of health (has played in only 12 games the past two years in Minnesota and Seattle). I would also like to see what the Seahawks think they need to improve, even though they won a Super Bowl. Teams improve and change every year so if the Seahawks want to repeat, they cannot be satisfied and stand back without changing and improving in certain areas.
6. Cleveland Browns
Johnny Manziel. That is all.
Just kidding, there's actually more to this team than just him. Manziel would certainly be the focal point though as he tries to win the starting job against the starter from last year and Ohio native, Brian Hoyer. Hoyer only started three games last year, but the Browns won all three, although he was injured in the third and never played the rest of the year. The Browns were 3-2 when he went out, and they finished the year 4-12. The coaches will have to decide if they want the flash (Manziel) or the calm (Hoyer).
Then there's the whole Josh Gordon saga, that might clear up before Hard Knocks would even begin. Gordon failed a drug test again, putting him at risk for a year long suspension. This wouldn't be a big deal if he was a third stringer, but he proved to be the Browns' best WR last year, and one of the best ones in the league. Despite knowing the potential suspension, the Browns were stubborn to a fault and refused to draft a WR in a fairly deep class. Even if Gordon isn't suspended, they don't have someone behind him to draw coverage away. They picked up veterans Miles Austin, Earl Bennett, and Nate Burleson, but each come with their own questions (injury, lack of production). Someone is bound to emerge during training camp, I just couldn't tell you who.
One great thing that would come from the Browns on Hard Knocks is allowing people to realize that this defense is pretty good. A good defense isn't usually associated with a 4-12 team, but the Browns finished 9th in overall defense last year and 6th in passing defense thanks to cover corner Joe Haden. The Browns finally got a corner to play opposite Haden by drafting Justin Gilbert out of Oklahoma State in the first round. It looks like they're building their defense like Arizona has built theirs with solid cover corners and letting everything else fall into place. Safety is still an issue, but their front seven is decent. Unfortunately, the Browns declined Hard Knocks this past week so we won't be seeing them this year.
5. Houston Texans
These last five really could have been put in any order as they all have their fair share of intrigue. Talk about the Texans recently has circled around their number one overall pick Jadeveon Clowney. I think Hard Knocks could be great for Clowney considering one of the knocks against him coming out of college was his lack of work ethic. Here, he could show the hard work he puts in during the week away from game day. He now joins a defense looking to slow down Andrew Luck and claim the AFC South.
The offensive side is much more worrisome. Andre Johnson, arguably their best player and lifetime Houston Texan, is extremely unhappy with the way the Texans' front office is assembling this team. His view is that they are rebuilding and, at 32 without even a whiff of the Super Bowl, Johnson wants to be on a contender. In truth, there's very little he can do because of his contract, but you have to wonder how committed he will be to giving it his all in training camp and throughout the season. He's a great player and far from a "diva" WR, but it is hard to get 100% effort from an unhappy employee in any job.
The Texans, similar to the Browns, were also incredibly stubborn by not taking a QB during the draft until the end of the fourth round when they took Pittsburgh's Tom Savage. There were some experts that believed Savage can be a good QB in this league, and maybe he can. But when your current QBs are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, and TJ Yates, I would think the urgency would be greater if you truly want to win now. Out of those four, it's anyone guess who will win the starting job. Fitzpatrick had his moments in Buffalo, Savage is a rookie, Keenum played eight games last year and lost all eight with a 9 to 6 touchdown to interception ratio, and Yates has a career 3 to 6 touchdown to interception ratio, but did win a playoff game in 2012 for the Texans.
4. Oakland Raiders
Unlike teams that built themselves during the draft, the Raiders decided to throw money around in free agency and improve their team that way. They brought in Antonio Smith from the Texans, Carlos Rogers from the 49ers, James Jones from the Pack, Justin Tuck from the Giants, LaMarr Woodley from the Steelers, Maurice Jones-Drew from the Jaguars, and traded for Matt Schaub from the Texans. Wow, welcome to the team. Schuab was an interesting trade considering the dreadful year that he had for the Texans (10 TDs, 14 INTs, 2,310 yards). The Raiders are banking on the fact that he has been a 4,000+ yard passer three times in his career and that last year was just a fluke. The Raiders hedged their bet by taking Derek Carr in the second round. Believed by some to be a first round, even top 10 talent, Carr will battle with Schuab to determine the starting QB.
Jones-Drew enters an interesting situation because Darren McFadden is still in Oakland. They're almost complete opposites with McFadden wanting space to use his speed, and Jones-Drew being a little bowling ball with enough quickness to bounce it outside if need be. There's also the fact that McFadden has bones made of glass and has yet to play more than 13 games in six years, whereas Jones-Drew has played 15 or more games six times in his eight year career. Will they play them both in a thunder and lightning kind of role? Will they allow one to take over the starting job with the other getting little touches? Will we see some Wildcat? A lot of uncertainty, but a lot of excitement as well at that position.
The defense is where they need the most improvement, and I think they got it with their free agent signings and by taking Khalil Mack fifth overall in this year's draft. In a division with Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles, and Phillip Rivers, the Raiders need to have players to slow them down. They went 1-5 in the division last year including giving up 34+ to the Broncos twice, and Kansas City dropping 56 on them. The Raiders actually scored 31 points that game, which is normally enough to win in the NFL. Mack, who will have a great mentor in Woodley, will need to come along and play like a fifth overall pick. I don't think they'll overtake the Broncos for the division crown, at least not until Manning is gone, but I think they could push for runner up, possibly even a Wild Card if they can steal a couple games.
3. St. Louis Rams
Just like the Browns and Manziel, the big topic with the Rams will be with Michael Sam. Just like the Browns, however, there's a lot more to this team than just the player that has been shown by the media. To be clear, Sam is an interesting story, regardless of his sexual orientation. Every year on Hard Knocks they follow players scrapping for a roster spot and Sam is no exception. A SEC Defensive Player of the Year last year, Sam steps into a situation where the starters are already set at his position. Chris Long and Robert Quinn are two of the best defensive ends in the game and there's no way Sam is supplanting them between now and the start of the season. Sam will have to grind it out on special teams, like most late draft picks do, to make the team and possibly get in a couple defensive packages. The public would also be able to see how other players interact and respond with Sam during camp.
Offensively, this team has the potential to be explosive. The first step in that process is getting Sam Bradford back to full health. Even going back to his Oklahoma days, Bradford has struggled with injury and this past year as well as 2011 were no different. The good news is that when Bradford has been healthy, he's been a fairly good NFL QB. He won't be winning MVP anytime soon, but he's thrown for 3,500+ both times he played a full season and saw his touchdown to interception ratio improve from 18 to 15 his rookie year to 21 to 13 in 2012. No one will challenge him for the starting gig, but he needs to progress and establish chemistry with the young corps of WRs that they have if St. Louis is to make the playoffs out of a tough NFC West.
The WR and RB positions, however, will see some battles. At WR, Tavon Austin was electric when the ball was in his hands last year, but his chances were limited. He played in 13 games and finished with 40 receptions. By comparison, Julio Jones played in 5 games last year and finished with 41 receptions. If Austin is to be a true number one WR, he's going to need to be sharper running routes and be more reliable. Lots of times he wasn't even on the field in some formations. He has the chance to separate himself from the oft injured Kenny Britt, and fellow Rams from last year Chris Givens, Brian Quick, and Austin Pettis.
At RB, Zac Stacy finished the year with a bang, but the Rams needed a solid backup or challenger for the starting position. Enter Auburn's Tre Mason who was a key reason why the Tigers made it to the National Championship game. While Stacy had success when called upon, the sample size is very small and it never hurts to have depth at the RB position. Mason is a faster than he looks runner who should settle into the number two position behind Stacy. Should anything happen with Stacy, however, I think Mason will be a more than capable backup.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Was it a fluke or sign of things to come? That is the question that will be asked throughout this season about Chip Kelly's offense and Nick Foles' QB play. Kelly's offense looked and worked just like it did at Oregon. No huddle was the norm as the offense spread your defense out looking for matchups that favored the Eagles. LeSean McCoy finished with his best rushing yardage total of his career with 1,607 and Foles had an insane 29 to 2 touchdown to interception ratio in the 13 games he played. It didn't look like anyone could stop them. Turns out that they weren't the only one with a juggernaut offense as the Saints beat them in Philly in the playoffs with the Eagles being outgained and running less plays than the Saints. Now Kelly will have time to fine tune and tweak his system as Foles tries to continue his success from last year.
One glaring name that will be missing on that offense will be DeSean Jackson. Jackson, released by the Eagles reportedly because of off the field concerns, was Philly's number one WR for a few years now. He led the Eagles in receiving yards and TDs last year and was, and still is, a dangerous kick returner when called upon. Jackson denies the off the field issues, but now finds himself playing for division rival Washington and Robert Griffin III. The Eagles need to find a WR to step up to replace him. Riley Cooper had a nice season last year and Jeremy Maclin has played well despite missing all of last year with an injury. They also picked up Jordan Matthews in the draft, who I think has star potential. Despite their successes, none of them have the elite speed and deep threat down the field that Jackson brought to the table. If Matthews fails to progress and Maclin's injury flares up, this offense could be in serious trouble no matter what system they run.
Similar to Kelly's offense that relies on speed, his defensive system also relies on speed. Unlike the offense, they did not find immediate success last year. They finished 4th to last in yards allowed and middle of the pack in points allowed per game. I realize that because their offense moves so quickly that their defense will be out there more often than other teams'. That does not excuse the high yardage and point totals that they gave up to some teams last year. They grabbed safety Malcolm Jenkins from the Saints in the offseason and drafted defensive end Marcus Smith in the first round. With Tony Romo, RGIII, and Eli Manning in their division, they will need to be better defensively to win another division crown. If that offense struggles in Year 2, the defensive side will be even more critical to their success.
1. Denver Broncos
Veteran nearing end of career? Check. Big name free agent signings? Check. Questions at critical positions? Check. Super Bowl Champion or bust mentality? Check. The Broncos have it all for a show like Hard Knocks. Let's start with the obvious name of Peyton Manning. Obviously no one is coming for his job, but you have to wonder if this will be his last rodeo? He can still play given his past two years in Denver, but eventually father time catches up with everyone. Getting an inside look at his preparation and the teaching that he does with his WRs and offensive line would be pretty cool to see. It also might be the last training camp he goes through, especially if they win the Super Bowl this year.
If there's one position that has to concern Broncos' fans, it has to be RB. In fact, it was probably concerning to them last year as well. This year, their leading rusher Knowshon Moreno departed for the Miami Dolphins. While I don't see this as a significant loss (Moreno has injury problems and had routinely underachieved prior to last year), it still leaves a question at RB. The obvious choice for starter is Montee Ball, but there were those that thought he would take control of the starting job last year. Instead, he caught a case of the fumbleitis and finished with half of the rushing attempts that Moreno did. Ball will have to prove during camp that those days are behind him and that he can take on an every down role. Improving at pass protection will also be key as protecting Manning is priority number one for this offense.
Despite not making much noise in free agency on the offensive side (lost Eric Decker, gained Emmanuel Sanders), the Broncos bullied their way into the free agent market and took Aqib Talib from New England, TJ Ward from Cleveland, and DeMarcus Ware from Dallas. The Broncos clearly saw defense as a need to go from Super Bowl Runner-up to Super Bowl Champion, and rightly so. Similar to the Eagles, because of how quick and efficient Manning is at running that offense, consequently the defense will be on the field more than normal, as well as some garbage time points given up since the game was wrapped up. Still, they were 19th in overall defense last year and gave up point totals of 48 (Dallas), 39 (Indianapolis), 34 (New England), and of course, 43 in the Super Bowl (Seattle). While these big name free agents were good with their former teams, they will need to establish chemistry and learn the system in Denver. Hard Knocks would be able to show this progression and learning experience for what could be a top five, and possible Super Bowl winning, defense next year.
Matty O
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