Dallas Cowboys
Studs: Tony Romo, QB, Dez Bryant, WR, Jason Witten, TE
Romo is the poster boy for why you should consider stats instead of reputation for fantasy football. For the second year in a row, he's ranked fairly low (outside the top 10 QBs) despite finishing in the top 10 for QBs the past three seasons. He plays on a pass happy team with one of the best WRs in the game, and is called upon to try and outscore the opposition given that the Cowboys' defense is so awful. I'm a Cowboys fan and I hate the real life Romo. He throws backbreaking interceptions and makes decisions that show why he was undrafted in the first place. For fantasy purposes, however, he's gold. Consider the Broncos game last year where he threw a terrible interception late in that game to seal the deal for Denver, but also had 506 yards and five TDs. He's one of the best values in all of fantasy football and should, once again, post a top 10 season.
The past two seasons, Dez has turned into one of the best WRs in the NFL. With his off the field problems seemingly behind him, Dez is now the number one option on this explosive offense. He finished sixth in fantasy points last year and proved how much of a TD machine he is with the third most TD grabs in the NFL, behind only Jimmy Graham and Demaryius Thomas. I would expect those numbers to stay about the same given his size, aggressiveness, and leaping ability. Calvin Johnson will still go first in most drafts, but Dez is in the tier right behind him with Thomas, AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, and Julio Jones. I'd take Dez behind only Calvin and Thomas. Having played a full season the past two years with at least 92 receptions and 12 TDs in each, Dez is an extremely safe pick.
Dez may have become the first option on this team, but Witten will still get his share of looks. Although his 851 yards in 2013 were his lowest since 2006, it was still good for fifth among TEs as he finished sixth in fantasy last year. He doesn't have the upside as a lot of the young TEs available and won't wow anyone on draft day. What he does have is a QB who still looks his way quite often and the size and route running ability to still be a threat in the passing game. The ceiling is low, but the floor is high. Expect another top eight finish, which is about how he's being drafted.
Bust: DeMarco Murray, RB
It's hard for me to slander this guy because he helped me to a third place finish in PPR last year, but, similar to someone like Knowshon Moreno, I think 2013 was more of an outlier than the norm. Owners of Murray, particularly those in PPR, were happy with his 1,471 all purpose yards, 10 TDs, and 53 receptions. The problem is that, including last year, injuries have always nagged him. He has yet to play a full 16 games, and will continue to be held back by the coaching staff. Unlike smart coaching staffs, Jason Garrett likes to throw it all the time instead of run it, even if the Boys are up by two with less than three minutes to go. The Cowboys, and the entire division see the NFC West this year which is bad news for any of these backs. While the 49ers, Cards, and Rams can be passed on, they're very stout in the run game (Seattle is the reverse of that). Murray is certainly safer in PPR formats because I do think the reception totals will be 40+, but drafting him as a top 10 back is risky.
Sleeper: Terrance Williams, WR
Defenses know who Dez Bryant is. Defenses know who Jason Witten is. This is good news for Williams. As a rookie, Williams put up great numbers for being the third option on this team with 736 yards and five TDs (by the way, those yardage totals are higher than Dez's rookie year when Dez was behind Miles Austin). While I don't think a Marshall/Jeffery or White/Jones situation develops, I do think Williams puts up enough stats to be a WR2 in any format. The Cowboys don't really have a viable WR3 so Williams should see just as much of the field as Dez. This could be his breakout year.
Bottom Line
Bad defense + good offense = awesome for fantasy. If Murray stays healthy, you could argue the Cowboys are right behind the Broncos for overall fantasy strength. Romo, Murray, Dez, and Witten all finished in the top 10 at their respective positions last year. They will be behind in most games and should have to rely on their offense to pick up wins.
New York Giants
Studs: Eli Manning, QB, Victor Cruz, WR
Just like Murray's case where one great season shouldn't cancel out the other bad ones, one bad season shouldn't cancel out all the other good ones either. Last year was a disaster for Eli and the entire Giants' offense. He had his lowest yardage totals since 2008, had a ridiculous 27 interceptions, and had his lowest TD total since he became a starter for the G-Men. The good news is that his passing attempts stayed about where he normally is (551 attempts), they're implementing a West Coast scheme which will get the ball out of Eli's hands quicker, and the Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams combo will be better than the disaster of a backfield they had last year. I'm not too concerned if the yardage stays about the same, but if he can bring his TDs up in the mid 20s and drop his INTs to the teens, he could be a great value considering he'll probably go undrafted in most leagues.
Cruz got off to an amazing start last year, finishing with 118+ yards in three of his first four games with four total TDs. After that, you could have dropped him to waivers. He didn't score another TD, only had one more triple digit yard game, and didn't play the last two weeks of the season. Amazingly, he still almost finished among the top 25 WRs for fantasy, despite the lack of offense. If he'll finish as a top 25 WR when everything went wrong, then definitely sign me up as a Cruz believer in 2014. He still has big play ability and can turn a five yard slant into a TD at any time. He's Manning's unquestioned number one option and should get plenty of chances to shine with the porous Giants' defense. Look for Cruz to challenge for a spot among the top 12 WRs.
Bust: None
I actually think most players on this team are being under drafted, probably due to their disaster 2013. Remember folks, this is 2014.
Sleeper: Andre Williams and Rashad Jennings, RB
It's very rare that two players at the same position are sleepers, but that is the case here. Jennings gained recognition in Oakland, filling the "guy who would come in when Darren McFadden got injured" role and did quite well. He had six double digit fantasy games last year in his limited work. Now he'll pretty much be a featured back in this offense as the Giants try to find a consistent backfield option. He's being drafted around the number 25 RB, but I think he easily finishes in the top 20, maybe top 15 but it would require a few injuries to the guys ahead of him.
The reason why I'm skeptical Jennings will break the top 15 is because of Williams. If you're in a PPR league, you can stop reading right now because Williams doesn't really have value there. He caught a grand total of zero passes in 13 games at BC last year and I expect that number to be about the same. Standard leagues, however, are more reliant on TDs and that is what Williams will bring. He's a great, bowling ball style runner who should see pretty much all of the goal line carries for this squad. He may even see some between the 20s early down work given how well he's played this preseason. A Heisman candidate a year ago, Williams will be a TD dependent player on a better than most think offense.
Bottom Line
The hope here with the Giants is that they can't be as bad as they were last year. All members of this team became useless by year's end. New pieces are always good to a team who performed like they did last year, while Cruz and Manning should be expected to return to form, or at least better than last year.
Philadelphia Eagles
Studs: LeSean McCoy, RB
Chip Kelly's no huddle offense has upgraded McCoy from a great player to an elite player. Along with Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, and Matt Forte, McCoy will be one of the first picks off the board in all drafts (number one or two in PPR). He's one of the most talented runners in the game and catches his fair share of balls out of the backfield (52 in 2013). Sure, newly acquired RB Darren Sproles could eat into some of that, but there will be plenty to go around with the volume of plays the Eagles run. McCoy is a safe bet to finish in the top five with a number one RB finish not out of the question.
Bust: Nick Foles, QB
To be fair, I still think he puts up solid numbers and should be someone's starter in a 10 team league. This is simply a warning against reaching for his 27 TD/2 INT performance last year. That crazy ratio isn't going to happen again. Also keep in mind that more than a quarter of his TDs came in one game last year when he tossed seven of them against the Raiders. Despite playing in a defensively weak division, he performed rather poorly against the NFC East last year. There's also the fact that defense is very reactionary. Consider the RG3/Kaepernick/Cam Newton read option year when they were going bananas. It took defenses a year, but they closed the gap. We've seen hurry up offense in the NFL before, but never like the Eagles ran last year. It will still be effective, but to a lesser extent this season as teams have dissected it in the offseason. Apart from Trent Richardson, Foles may be the most polarizing player in this year's draft. Some say last year was a fluke, some say it's a sign of things to come. I'm in the middle, leaning towards the fluke side, but still think he stays as a top 10 QB.
Sleeper: Jeremy Maclin, WR
Heading into last season, I was really high on Maclin in Kelly's explosive offense. Unfortunately, he suffered an ACL injury and missed all of 2013. It sounds like he'll be healthy to start the year in 2014, and should start the year as the number one WR on this squad with DeSean Jackson now in Washington. In 2012, Maclin's last playing season, he put up 857 yards and seven TDs in 15 games without a no huddle offense. With Jackson's departure, I think Maclin eclipses 1,000 yards (career high is 964 in 2010) and finishes in the 6-9 TD range. His upside is huge playing in this offense. He's going behind the likes of Percy Harvin, Julian Edelman, and Cordarrelle Patterson, all of whom I think he outperforms.
Bottom Line
Kelly's offense hit the NFL like a hurricane last year as defenses struggled to keep up. It won't be quite as explosive this year, but should be one of the top five offensive units in the league. A lot rests on Foles' development as a QB and if he can sustain close to the same success he had last year. If so, then you can feel safe taking just about anyone on this squad.
Washington Redskins
Studs: Pierre Garcon, WR, DeSean Jackson, WR, Alfred Morris, RB, Robert Griffin III, QB
After four years of playing with Peyton Manning in Indy, Garcon seems to have found a nice landing spot in DC. For PPR purposes, he's as safe as you can get as he had 5+ catches in every game last year while putting up 1,346 yards and 5 TDs. RG3 looks to him early and often, and I don't think that changes even with the signing of D-Jax and Jordan Reed's emergence. He runs any route they need him to and should be drafted ahead of fellow wideout D-Jax.
The deep ball is D-Jax's calling card. While Garcon can make those plays, Jackson is better at it. He's lightning fast and just has a knack for getting open deep, even with safety help. As you might have guessed, this can lead to weeks where he wins it for you, and others where he does close to nothing. He had just as many 100+ yard games last year as he did games where he had 36 yards or less. If you're willing to deal with that week to week fluctuation, then D-Jax could be a solid pick for you.
Morris is extremely TD dependent and loses quite a bit of value in PPR as he rarely catches the ball. After finishing as the fifth best fantasy RB in 2012 thanks to 13 TDs, he dropped all the way to 15th due to only scoring seven TDs. The good news is he has yet to miss a game in his NFL career and should still finish in the top 20 in standard leagues. He seems to have the backfield job sewn up so it's really just a matter of finding the end zone, as the yards should be there. Low ceiling, high floor, but be wary in PPR leagues.
RG3 retains his stud status, though he certainly regressed last year. He may have thrown for more yards, but his 16:12 TD to INT ratio was a major step back from his rookie year 20:5 ratio. Injury was once again a concern for him as he only played in 13 games and looked almost scared to run free like he did his rookie year. RG3's usage is probably what will limit his value, but if he is unleashed, I think he returns to his unstoppable rookie year form. I've been saying it since he got drafted, but RG3 is an average thrower, at best. When the threat of the running game is there, however, he's lethal. The problem is the Redskins view RG3 as an investment and are trying to protect him physically by telling him to stay in the pocket and limit his runs. This, in turn, limits his effectiveness as well as his fantasy value. He has the potential to finish top five, but will likely finish towards the back of the top 10. Still a starter.
Bust: DeSean Jackson, WR
While Jackson is a nice pickup for the Redskins' team, I think it kills his value. Garcon is the number one option with his team as he already has chemistry with RG3 and has proved he can put up the numbers. He was inconsistent in Philly and will bring the same boom or bust style over to DC. Last year was great for him, but that was mainly a product of the quick tempo offense that the Eagles ran last year. He had 20 more catches than he ever had in a season last year, out gained his previous career high in yards by a little under 200, and tied his career high in TDs that he got back in 2009. I think he puts up two or three huge games, then does very little in between. His threat of the deep ball should help his teammates, but I don't like his current second round draft position. I actually think Jackson is a candidate for one of the worst busts of the year.
Sleeper: Jordan Reed, TE
Had Reed not gotten a concussion which cost him the rest of the year in Week 11, there's a chance he would be ranked higher. Good news for those who know how effective Reed was last year. Reed started off slow, but really came on in Weeks 7-10, highlighted by a 9 catch, 134 yard, 1 TD performance against the Bears. The sample size is obviously small, but for those who watched him those games, you could tell that he was another TE in the recent line of athletic, mismatch TEs. He's extremely athletic with decent hands, and great ability to run after the catch. D-Jax over the top should help clear up even more space than last year. He, along with Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz are guys that are being drafted outside of the top five TEs that have a real shot of being there by the end of the year.
Bottom Line
There's a bit of unpredictability surrounding the Redskins this year, even if it's mixed with feelings of excitement. They have a new OC, a new deep threat WR, and RG3 and Reed coming back from injury. On paper, this offense looks unstoppable. Still, everyone except Morris has a bit of injury history and all it takes is one hit on RG3 for the whole narrative in DC to change.
That'll wrap up another year of breakdowns for fantasy football. Thanks for reading along and hopefully these have confirmed your preexisting thoughts about a player or made you look at a player in a different light for better or worse. Remember, the draft is just the starting point and weekly start/sit decisions and working the waiver wire are just as important. Good luck to all of you in your drafts, unless you're in a league with me. In that case, I advise you take the Cowboys defense first round. Trust me, they're due. Happy drafting!
Matty O
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