2016 Regional Breakdown: Final Four & Final Thoughts

Slow Your Roll
While everyone wants to label this year as the year for crazy things to happen because there is no "dominant" team out there, I think people need to remember that the one seeds and a couple of the twos are really good.  Noticeably-better-than-the-middling-seeds good.  That's why I have three number one seeds (North Carolina, Kansas, and Virginia) in my Final Four and really only have A&M in there because someone has to win the West Region.  If Michigan State had gotten a one seed instead of Oregon, I would've had four number one seeds.  There's still going to be upsets, sure, but to not pick some of these one seeds just because the regular season has been volatile is not recommended.

Final Four & Champion
The KU-A&M matchup I don't think will even be that close.  Kansas should wipe the floor with the Aggies, and really anyone that comes out of the West.  The other side of the bracket, however, should be very interesting.  It would be an all ACC matchup between Virginia and UNC.  They split their two matchups this season with Virginia winning by five at home in late February, and the Tar Heels winning by four last week in the ACC Championship game.  I would anticipate another close, tense game between two foes who know each other well, but I have to take Carolina's talent in the end.

This will set up the Roy Williams National Championship game as Roy takes his Tar Heels to face his old team, the Jayhawks.  I believe that these are the two best teams in the country because of their coaching, versatility, and depth.  Fans of basketball in general should be rooting for this matchup as I think it would be a classic title game that is contested until the end.  I'm going to take the Jayhawks because I think they are a little more consistent than the Tar Heels are, despite having less overall talent on their roster.

Gut Feeling
I've given you numbers, names, and reasons why Team A will beat Team B.  Sometimes, however, when the bracket comes out you see a matchup and before looking deep into the matchup just say, "That feels like it could be an upset."  While I didn't have the guts to actually pick these upsets, here are a few big time shockers that looked appealing when the bracket first came out.

14 Stephen F Austin over 3 West Virginia
13 Iona over 4 Iowa State
11 Gonzaga over 3 Utah and 2 Michigan State
12 Yale over 5 Baylor

Matty O

2016 Regional Breakdown: West

Participants
Oregon, Holy Cross/Southern, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, Baylor, Yale, Duke, UNC-Wilmington, Texas, Northern Iowa, Texas A&M, Green Bay, Oregon State, VCU, Oklahoma, Cal State Bakersfield

The "Meh" Region
When I look at this region, I shrug my shoulders and say, "Meh."  None of these teams really jump out at me, and while one of them has to make the Final Four by default, I can't see any of them being favored to win the whole thing.  Oregon is the only top seed that is a bit intriguing, though they play most of their games past my bedtime.  Oregon peaked at the right time to earn their one seed as they won the Pac-12 tournament by beating Arizona for the second time this season in the semifinals, then crushing Utah for the third time this season in the Championship game.  Oklahoma has Buddy Hield, but has basically no depth and lost five of its last eleven games, Texas A&M only had to face Kentucky once during the regular season in a down year for the SEC, Duke has dropped off noticeably from their title winning squad last year, and Baylor one upped Oklahoma by losing six of its last eleven games in the Big 12.  The low seeds also don't do much for me, which could lead to these struggling top teams advancing because of poor opponents rather than their good play.

Texas vs Everyone
The one storyline creator in this region could be if Texas goes far, simply because of the other teams they could face.  If things go chalk and they and Texas A&M win, well then you have one of the better in-state rivalries in all of sports that has been taken away from the two schools due to the Aggies' move to the SEC in 2012.  If Texas wins that game, then they have a chance to meet another rival in Oklahoma, who is still in the Big 12.  The two split the season series with each school winning at home, making a neutral site in the NCAA Tournament a great way to settle the score.  If, however, the number ten VCU Rams were to make it to the Sweet 16, then you would have Texas coach Shaka Smart facing his old VCU team.  Both teams run a variation of Smart's "havoc," high pressure defense which would make this an entertaining watch.  One problem, however, is that I don't think Texas gets to see any of those three teams as Northern Iowa knocks them out in the first game.

Wild Card:  Duke
In an unimpressive region like this, sometimes it's best to put your faith in talent and great coaching.  Duke checks both of those boxes.  They struggled mightily down the stretch and get a tough draw facing UNC-Wilmington, but Grayson Allen can score in bunches and Brandon Ingram hasn't even played up to his full potential even though he is likely to be a top pick in the NBA draft.  Oregon is the perceived "weakest" one seed in the tournament, so if they get knocked off by either St. Joe's or Cincy, then it is not out of the question to see Coach K in another Final Four.

Winner of Region:  Texas A&M
This pick is more so because of the draw that they get rather than how good this team is.  The Aggies did split with Kentucky, but are rather unproven outside of a win over Iowa State and pre-2016 games against Baylor and the 'Zags.  They get off the hook in the second round as I don't think Texas or Nothern Iowa is any threat to knock them off, and Oklahoma will have their hands full with VCU in the second round before potentially facing the Aggies.

Matty O

2016 Regional Breakdown: South

Participants
Kansas, Austin Peay, Colorado, UConn, Maryland, South Dakota State, Cal, Hawaii, Arizona, Wichita State, Miami, Buffalo, Iowa, Temple, Villanova, UNC-Ashville

The Prove-It Region
The top seeds in this region, whether it be because of recent tournament history, late season slumps, or being overshadowed by other teams in their conference, all have to prove to the nation that they are worthy of their high seedings.  The top two seeds, Kansas and Villanova, have had great 2015-16 seasons, but have faltered in recent tournaments.  In the past ten years, Kansas has only made it out of their region twice, despite being a number one or two seed eight out of those ten years.  They have also dropped Round of 32 games the past two seasons as a number two seed.  Villanova, meanwhile, was a two seed in 2014 before losing in the Round of 32, then was a one seed last year before losing to NC State in the Round of 32 again.  Miami was overshadowed on the court by fellow ACC members Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia.  While they did beat Duke and Virginia, they also lost to Virginia Tech, NC State, and Clemson.  Cal snagged a four seed despite losing ten games and going 5-10 away from home.  Maryland's W-L record might be impressive, but they failed to answer the bell in almost all of their big games as they lost to North Carolina, Michigan State (twice), once against Purdue, and in Indiana.  If you don't have at least a sliver of doubt about any of the top five teams in this region, you're crazy.

Let's Talk Wildcats
With questions surrounding the top seeds and how far they might go in this region, it is fair to believe that a team seeded 6-12 might emerge.  For me, that team is the sixth seeded Arizona Wildcats.  Arizona is almost the complete opposite of Kansas and Villanova with their recent tournament success.  The Wildcats have been in the tournament five times since 2009 and have advanced to the Elite Eight three times and the Sweet 16 the other two times.  During those five years they have been a one, two, five, six, and twelve seed, and have put together successful runs each time.  They only have eight losses on the year, two of them overtime losses, and none of them having a margin of defeat greater than eight points (a late January loss to Oregon).  Kaleb Tarczewski is a senior presence down low and they have three players who average 15+ points per game.  I was hoping Wichita State would have lost the play in game as they are another sleeper Cinderella team, but I think Arizona takes care of business, surprises a couple teams, and makes it all the way to the Elite Eight.

Wild Card:  Iowa
Are you getting the late December/early January Iowa that swept their season series with both Michigan State and Purdue, or are you getting the late season Iowa that went 4-6 since February started?  I think you'll probably get closer to the latter than the former, but losing early in the Big Ten tournament might have given them time to regroup.  Perhaps they did overachieve in the middle of the season and they will find themselves overwhelmed by Temple in the first round.  The fact still remains that they did still beat Purdue and MSU twice each.  Beating both of those teams twice is not a fluke.  Their draw isn't frightening at all and if we do see the mid-season Hawkeyes, I could also see them getting to the Elite Eight instead of the Wildcats.

Winner of Region:  Kansas
I tried to find a reason or a place to knock Kansas off in this region, but I just couldn't do it.  While I did mention that they failed to make it out of their region eight out of the past ten years, the two times that they did make it out of their region they went to the National Championship game.  This team is talented enough and deep enough to make a similar kind of run.  This team hasn't lost since late January, despite facing the likes of Kentucky, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas, and Iowa State during that span.  I think a potential Round of 32 game against UConn will give them and everyone's bracket a scare, but I think they charge on and make their first Final Four since 2012.

Matty O

2016 Regional Breakdown: Midwest

Participants
Virginia, Hampton, Texas Tech, Butler, Purdue, Arkansas Little Rock, Iowa State, Iona, Seton Hall, Gonzaga, Utah, Fresno State, Dayton Syracuase, Michigan State, Middle Tennessee State

Upset City
While it is almost a consensus that Michigan State and Virginia will meet each other in this region's final, I think the rest of this bracket is wide open.  Gonzaga, having been a dominant program for the past decade or so, now finds itself back as a double digit seed having been no worse than an eight seed the past four tournaments.  Iowa State and Purdue make for two extremely suspect four and five seeds, respectively, as the Cyclones went 5-7 down the stretch and are tied for 257th in the country in points allowed, while Purdue struggled mightily away from home, though they were impressive in the Big Ten Title Game loss.  Iona and Arkansas Little Rock, meanwhile, are potential Cinderella stories as Iona has star AJ English carrying their team, and Arkansas LR plays at a snail's pace, but only allows 59.9 points per game, good for 3rd in the country.  If there was ever a time to take a chance on a 12-13 matchup in the Round of 32, this would be the place to do so.

Virginia Hosed Again
Someone has got it out for the Cavaliers.  For the third year in a row they have a potential matchup with Michigan State in their region.  The Cavs were a two seed last year, only to have to face Michigan State, a seven seed, in the second round of the 2015 tournament.  That should have been an Elite Eight game.  Luckily for the Cavs, it will be an Elite Eight game if they meet this year.  Unluckily for the Cavs, the Spartans are better this year.  Not only will Virginia, the one seed, have to beat the Spartans, but they will have to do it in Big Ten country in Chicago, rather than a site on the east coast that would favor Virginia.  It's unfortunate that both of these teams are worthy of being a Final Four team, but only one will make it.

Wild Card:  Utah
I know it sounds weird to call a three seed a wild card, but with Virginia and MSU so heavily favored to come out of this region, you really could've picked anyone.  Utah is one of those teams that doesn't do anything exceptionally, but they really don't do anything terrible either.  In conference play, they lost to the number one seeded Oregon Ducks three times, but went 2-1 against fourth seeded Cal and beat the sixth seeded Arizona Wildcats in their only meeting this season.  Their road to get to the Sweet 16 is fairly easy where a likely matchup with Michigan State looms.  While I think they drop that game, I think they give the Spartans all they can handle, which is really all you can ask for a non-Virginia, non-Michigan State team in this region.

Winner of Region:  Virginia
The popular pick to come out of this region, and popular pick by many to win the whole thing is Michigan State, so this is going against the grain here.  Maybe I'm a sucker for defense, but I am always so impressed with how well they play on the defensive end whenever I watch them, as they rank 2nd in the nation in points per game allowed.  They always seem to hang around and it is pretty much impossible to blow them out as their largest margin of defeat in any of their seven losses was seven points.  They've answered the call against the big boys, defeating North Carolina, Miami, and Louisville all in the past month.  They've also beaten non-ACC, top seeded foes such as Villanova, Cal, and West Virginia.  The third time will be a charm for this team as the matchup with the Spartans will be a grind-it-out kind of game, but I think the Cavs make just enough plays at the end.

Matty O

2016 Regional Breakdown: East

Participants
North Carolina, Florida Gulf Coast/Fairleigh Dickinson, USC, Providence, Indiana, Chattanooga, Kentucky, Stony Brook, Notre Dame, Michigan/Tulsa, West Virginia, Stephen F. Austin, Wisconsin, Pitt, Xavier, Weber State

Blue Bloods Bracket
The East region is absolutely stacked, though slightly top heavy.  I don't see a lot of upsets happening in this region, which should create some excellent Round of 32 matchups.  Kentucky-Indiana will pit two traditional powerhouses against each other, North Carolina-Providence could be a lot closer than people think with Kris Dunn leading the Friars, and a prove-it kind of game for Xavier against a deep, slow, but methodical Wisconsin squad.  The fan bases for the teams in this region travel well, so expect to see large and loud crowds with great atmospheres.

Wild Card:  West Virginia
WVU is the wild card for this region because of their press style of play.  For those that haven't seen them play, they will full court press and trap for essentially the entire game, hoping to force opponents into bad turnovers and easy buckets.  The downside is that when they don't get those easy buckets, they can be fairly easy to beat as they are not a great shooting team.  They only have one "bad" loss (88-71 at Florida), but lost two out of three to Kansas with the lone win coming at home, and were swept by Texas during the season.  Their road is relatively easy compared to the top half of the bracket, and they have the system to go deep in the tournament.  If their press fails, however, I wouldn't be shocked to see them go out in the first round to Stephen F. Austin.

Potential Party Crasher:  Providence
As I mentioned before, and as you'll see with my picks below, it is going to be hard for any low seed to make noise in this region.  Providence in particular has a daunting draw with potential matchups against North Carolina and/or Kentucky looming.  What the Friars do have, however, is a great player in Kris Dunn, who is shaping up to be a first round NBA draft pick.  He is the floor general for Providence and led them through a difficult Big East conference, defeating Butler three times this season, and winning at Villanova.  While it is hard to see them advancing farther than the round of 32 in this region, crazier things have happened.

Winner of Region:  North Carolina
The Tar Heels have easily the most difficult road to the Final Four of any of the one seeds, but I think they can handle it.  They go eight deep, can score with anyone, and are solid defensively.  They won the regular season ACC Championship as well as the ACC tournament Championship.  That's an ACC that has seven teams in the tournament, and should have eight if Louisville were not banned from postseason play this year.  UNC should be rooting this butts off for Chattanooga and Stony Brook to pull the early round upsets, but the Tar Heels should still represent this region even if they see Indiana, Kentucky, or Xavier.

Matty O