Kansas, Austin Peay, Colorado, UConn, Maryland, South Dakota State, Cal, Hawaii, Arizona, Wichita State, Miami, Buffalo, Iowa, Temple, Villanova, UNC-Ashville
The Prove-It Region
The top seeds in this region, whether it be because of recent tournament history, late season slumps, or being overshadowed by other teams in their conference, all have to prove to the nation that they are worthy of their high seedings. The top two seeds, Kansas and Villanova, have had great 2015-16 seasons, but have faltered in recent tournaments. In the past ten years, Kansas has only made it out of their region twice, despite being a number one or two seed eight out of those ten years. They have also dropped Round of 32 games the past two seasons as a number two seed. Villanova, meanwhile, was a two seed in 2014 before losing in the Round of 32, then was a one seed last year before losing to NC State in the Round of 32 again. Miami was overshadowed on the court by fellow ACC members Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia. While they did beat Duke and Virginia, they also lost to Virginia Tech, NC State, and Clemson. Cal snagged a four seed despite losing ten games and going 5-10 away from home. Maryland's W-L record might be impressive, but they failed to answer the bell in almost all of their big games as they lost to North Carolina, Michigan State (twice), once against Purdue, and in Indiana. If you don't have at least a sliver of doubt about any of the top five teams in this region, you're crazy.
Let's Talk Wildcats
With questions surrounding the top seeds and how far they might go in this region, it is fair to believe that a team seeded 6-12 might emerge. For me, that team is the sixth seeded Arizona Wildcats. Arizona is almost the complete opposite of Kansas and Villanova with their recent tournament success. The Wildcats have been in the tournament five times since 2009 and have advanced to the Elite Eight three times and the Sweet 16 the other two times. During those five years they have been a one, two, five, six, and twelve seed, and have put together successful runs each time. They only have eight losses on the year, two of them overtime losses, and none of them having a margin of defeat greater than eight points (a late January loss to Oregon). Kaleb Tarczewski is a senior presence down low and they have three players who average 15+ points per game. I was hoping Wichita State would have lost the play in game as they are another sleeper Cinderella team, but I think Arizona takes care of business, surprises a couple teams, and makes it all the way to the Elite Eight.
Wild Card: Iowa
Are you getting the late December/early January Iowa that swept their season series with both Michigan State and Purdue, or are you getting the late season Iowa that went 4-6 since February started? I think you'll probably get closer to the latter than the former, but losing early in the Big Ten tournament might have given them time to regroup. Perhaps they did overachieve in the middle of the season and they will find themselves overwhelmed by Temple in the first round. The fact still remains that they did still beat Purdue and MSU twice each. Beating both of those teams twice is not a fluke. Their draw isn't frightening at all and if we do see the mid-season Hawkeyes, I could also see them getting to the Elite Eight instead of the Wildcats.
Winner of Region: Kansas
I tried to find a reason or a place to knock Kansas off in this region, but I just couldn't do it. While I did mention that they failed to make it out of their region eight out of the past ten years, the two times that they did make it out of their region they went to the National Championship game. This team is talented enough and deep enough to make a similar kind of run. This team hasn't lost since late January, despite facing the likes of Kentucky, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas, and Iowa State during that span. I think a potential Round of 32 game against UConn will give them and everyone's bracket a scare, but I think they charge on and make their first Final Four since 2012.
Matty O
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