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Wednesday, March 16, 2016

2016 Regional Breakdown: West

Participants
Oregon, Holy Cross/Southern, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, Baylor, Yale, Duke, UNC-Wilmington, Texas, Northern Iowa, Texas A&M, Green Bay, Oregon State, VCU, Oklahoma, Cal State Bakersfield

The "Meh" Region
When I look at this region, I shrug my shoulders and say, "Meh."  None of these teams really jump out at me, and while one of them has to make the Final Four by default, I can't see any of them being favored to win the whole thing.  Oregon is the only top seed that is a bit intriguing, though they play most of their games past my bedtime.  Oregon peaked at the right time to earn their one seed as they won the Pac-12 tournament by beating Arizona for the second time this season in the semifinals, then crushing Utah for the third time this season in the Championship game.  Oklahoma has Buddy Hield, but has basically no depth and lost five of its last eleven games, Texas A&M only had to face Kentucky once during the regular season in a down year for the SEC, Duke has dropped off noticeably from their title winning squad last year, and Baylor one upped Oklahoma by losing six of its last eleven games in the Big 12.  The low seeds also don't do much for me, which could lead to these struggling top teams advancing because of poor opponents rather than their good play.

Texas vs Everyone
The one storyline creator in this region could be if Texas goes far, simply because of the other teams they could face.  If things go chalk and they and Texas A&M win, well then you have one of the better in-state rivalries in all of sports that has been taken away from the two schools due to the Aggies' move to the SEC in 2012.  If Texas wins that game, then they have a chance to meet another rival in Oklahoma, who is still in the Big 12.  The two split the season series with each school winning at home, making a neutral site in the NCAA Tournament a great way to settle the score.  If, however, the number ten VCU Rams were to make it to the Sweet 16, then you would have Texas coach Shaka Smart facing his old VCU team.  Both teams run a variation of Smart's "havoc," high pressure defense which would make this an entertaining watch.  One problem, however, is that I don't think Texas gets to see any of those three teams as Northern Iowa knocks them out in the first game.

Wild Card:  Duke
In an unimpressive region like this, sometimes it's best to put your faith in talent and great coaching.  Duke checks both of those boxes.  They struggled mightily down the stretch and get a tough draw facing UNC-Wilmington, but Grayson Allen can score in bunches and Brandon Ingram hasn't even played up to his full potential even though he is likely to be a top pick in the NBA draft.  Oregon is the perceived "weakest" one seed in the tournament, so if they get knocked off by either St. Joe's or Cincy, then it is not out of the question to see Coach K in another Final Four.

Winner of Region:  Texas A&M
This pick is more so because of the draw that they get rather than how good this team is.  The Aggies did split with Kentucky, but are rather unproven outside of a win over Iowa State and pre-2016 games against Baylor and the 'Zags.  They get off the hook in the second round as I don't think Texas or Nothern Iowa is any threat to knock them off, and Oklahoma will have their hands full with VCU in the second round before potentially facing the Aggies.

Matty O



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