1st place regular season, 3rd place playoffs (14-team PPR), 9th place (12-team Standard). This season had its share of ups and downs, twists and turns. In my PPR league, I started off okay, then rattled off seven straight wins to win the regular season. In my standard league, I felt like the Dallas Cowboys as of late. Just when it looked like I was on a roll and creeping into the playoffs, I suffered a big loss when I really needed a win and put myself behind the 8 ball. Now that it's over, it's time to take a look back at all the craziness of these past several weeks.
Best Draft Pick
DeMarco Murray (RB - Cowboys)
Honestly, I didn't really even want to draft him. I put him under my bust section in my fantasy football preview because of his past injury concerns and the Cowboys' baffling refusal to run the football. Both of those things actually happened, but he was still a great pick. I was able to snag him late in the 3rd round of a 14 team league with players like Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden taken ahead of Murray in the same round. By the time my pick rolled around, the value was too good to pass up. He did miss his usual couple games (Weeks 7 and 8), but excelled when he was on the field. As an added bonus, he played his best football at the end of the year including a three TD performance in Week 13 when a lot of on the fence owners needed a win to secure a playoff berth. His injuries still concern me, but Murray could be a first round, top 10 pick next year in fantasy drafts.
Worst Draft Pick
Stevan Ridley (RB - Patriots)
My standard league actually had a lot of candidates for this spot, but I'll go with Ridley due to the frustration he caused me. As Ridley owners know, he started off the season at a snail's pace posting rushing yards of 46, 40, 35, and 53. This is from a guy who was a second round pick in most leagues. Then, all of a sudden, he caught fire and played good football from Weeks 6-9. Unfortunately, that's also the time when the rest of my team decided to play their worst football, as I went 1-3 during that stretch. Then, following the Patriots' bye, Ridley put up a solid game in Carolina, but his chronic fumbling problem reared its ugly head once again as he was back in Bill Belichick's doghouse. He would never fully recover from that game as he lost carries to LeGarrette Blount, Brandon Bolden, and Shane Vereen. He was even a healthy inactive for the Week 13 Houston game. After this season, it's tough to tell what Ridley's future holds.
Best Waiver Pickup
Zac Stacy (RB - Rams)
I was fortunate enough to pick him up in both my leagues, mostly due to the fact that I had been starting the other Rams' running back Daryl Richardson as my RB2. Had I not been starting Richardson, I probably wouldn't have even picked Stacy up. I thought he would post okay numbers based on sheer volume, but nothing more than that. Instead, Stacy became a carrying and TD machine as he did his best to make the Rams forget about Steven Jackson. Just watching him was impressive as he always seemed to move the pile forward and read blocks well. I wound up trading him in my PPR league for DeSean Jackson so he still was an asset to my team when I picked him up. It's hard to find that kind of production off the waiver wire. Stacy will be a hot commodity next year as he will have a year under his belt, as the Rams hopefully find a franchise quarterback in the upcoming draft.
Worst Waiver Pickup
Jacob Tamme (TE - Broncos)
Of course, the one time I get to start a Bronco it doesn't work out for me. With Jordan Reed concussed, I was in quite a bind at tight end. Then, in Week 14, Wes Welker got injured and it was Tamme who filled in at Welker's slot position. Welker was out Week 15, and I was happy. All the experts were saying that Tamme would fill Welker's slot role and, in a PPR league, that means a good stat line. Unfortunately, that honor wound up going to Andre Caldwell of all people as Tamme was held to one catch for nine yards. This was in the semi-finals of my playoffs and was one of the reasons why I played in the third place game instead of the Championship. Apart from the every week starters (Gronk, Jordan Cameron, Reed, Gonzo, Julius Thomas, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates), tight end was very hit or miss this year. I missed badly on this one.
Player I'm Glad I Didn't Trade
Drew Brees (QB - Saints)
Believe it or not, there was a time when I proposed a trade that would send Drew Brees away and put Eli Manning on my team (a few other players were involved, but these two would have swung my season). Let me justify this proposal. It was right after Week 1 when Brees did his Brees thing and put up good numbers, but Eli also had a monster game as he threw for 450 yards and 4 TDs (passing TDs were worth 6 pts. in this league). Being a Cowboys fan, I knew the NFC East, Manning's division, had extremely bad defenses so I was intrigued. He had Victor Cruz and a healthy Hakeem Nicks so the weapons were there. Thankfully, this trade was rejected. Had it not been, I likely would have wound up towards the bottom of my league as Manning went in the tank, throwing interception after interception.
Best Sleeper Prediction
Alshon Jeffery (WR - Bears)
A surprising amount of options to choose from, but I'll go with Jeffery for you Bears fans out there. He was in my Sleeper section in 2012 as well, but I put him in the 2013 Sleeper section again because I knew he would be a monster. Jeffery has freakish athletic ability and made Calvin Johnson-like catches this year. He had a couple dud games (Weeks 2, 6, and 12), but his highs were awesome. The best moment for Jeffery owners was a 249 yard, 2 TD performance in a losing effort in Week 13 in Minnesota. I think it will be very interesting to see what the Bears do with their WR situation now. Do they keep both and try to build a juggernaut on offense or trade one to help out the defensive side of the ball which was atrocious this year? Marshall has one more year left on his deal so it will be interesting to see if they try and get something for him instead of just letting him walk.
Worst Sleeper Prediction
Ryan Broyles (WR - Lions)
Lots of options to choose from again, but I'll stay in the NFC North and go with a hugely disappointing Lions receiver. Broyles showed some promise last year and Titus Young was out of the picture so he was the clear number three behind Megatron and Nate Burleson. The Lions like to throw it all over the place so I thought Broyles would really step it up this year and be a valuable part of fantasy teams, especially in PPR. Things didn't go as planned as he never topped 34 yards in a game, put up multiple zeroes, and ultimately injured himself once again. After excelling at the University of Oklahoma, Broyles' stock has plummeted after only a couple years in the league. I doubt he is part of the Lions' plan moving forward.
Best Bust Prediction
Robert Griffin III (QB - Redskins)
There were certainly players in my bust sections that did worse than RG3, but with all the hype coming into this year, especially after the way he took the league by storm last year, he certainly did not live up to expectations in 2013. He did have a few good games here and there, but it was obvious that his speed wasn't where it was last year coming off his injury. As I've mentioned before, he's really not that great of a passer so when he can't run, or at least have the threat of the run, he will struggle. See the Denver game where, given Washington's porous defense, RG3 was going to have to match Peyton Manning point for point. RG3 finished with 132 yards, 1 TD, and 3 turnovers. He eventually got shut down at the end of the year, and wasn't even available for owners in the Championship week. It'll be interesting to see what moves are made in Washington this off season.
Worst Bust Prediction
DeMarco Murray (RB - Cowboys)
See above.
Other Notes
First Round Minefield
In 2013, the first round of most drafts was littered with busts. Adrian Peterson had decent numbers, but didn't do anything the final three weeks of the season for owners. Arian Foster and Doug Martin haven't played a snap since Week 7. Ray Rice and Trent Richardson were the kings of under performing this year. CJ Spiller had injury problems once again and shared the backfield with aging Fred Jackson. It was a mess at the top and you had to pray to get out alive. Luckily I wound up selecting Megatron (PPR) and Marshawn Lynch (Standard). If you made it out of the first round with either of those two, Jamaal Charles, or LeSean McCoy, you were probably on the right track.
Know When To Cut Bait
When it comes to trading players, or even clearing up a roster spot, it's important to know when a player is going to start struggling. It's important to know why a player is excelling and if that will continue or is just a phase. I'll use two Patriots that I owned as an example. Kenbrell Thompkins was a guy I selected in both my leagues because Tom Brady was throwing him the ball, Gronk and Aaron Hernandez were out, and Wes Welker was gone. His stock was at its highest after Week 4 when he posted back to back great numbers with a two TD performance in Week 3 and a 127 yard, 1 TD performance in Week 4. With that in mind, I pulled the trigger and traded him in both my leagues as it is rare for a rookie to keep on that pace, and Gronk was coming back. Thompkins stalled the rest of the way and was basically a non factor after Week 4.
Stevan Ridley, however, is an example of where I held on for too long. Granted, it was much harder to see this coming, and all it took was one fumble to make him irrelevant. Still, trading him when his value was at his peak would have saved me frustration, and possibly my team. Instead, I decided to ride it out as Ridley did absolutely nothing down the stretch. My team subsequently packed it in and we settled for the consolation bracket.
Who Would've Thunk It?
The best, and sometimes most frustrating, part about fantasy football is the uncertainty. Who would've guessed that the Giant's offense would have been this bad? Who would've guessed the Chiefs and Panthers defenses would have been this good? Who would've guessed that owners would be favoring Josh McCown over Jay Cutler? The uncertainty is what makes it so exciting. Like any other type of gambling, you can do all the analysis and improve you odds all you want, but all it takes it that one number or hand to trump you. You might have Peyton Manning and Jamaal Charles, but if they put up bad games and your opponent has some backup wide receiver break off an 80 yard TD run, you could be in trouble. This season was great, and 2014 should be even funner. Hopefully you'll play fantasy football again, or try it out if you haven't already.
Matty O
Hope you had a Happy Holiday and have a Happy New Year
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Breaking Down The Craziness of Week 15
Closer and closer, we inch towards the NFL playoffs. Only four of the twelve spots have been clinched thus far (Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis). While this past weekend was supposed to clear things up, I feel like it only made things more confusing. Numerous teams that were supposed to take care of business failed to do so. Some teams lost their games, but still control their fate (Dallas), while other teams won their games, but got booted from the one through six seeds in their conference (Miami). Here is a review of the bizzare scores and story lines from a whacky Week 15 in the NFL.
NFC East
Say what you will about the quality of play in this division, you cannot deny the entertainment value attached to these four teams on a week to week basis. The New York Giants were probably the most boring team from this division in Week 15 as they continued their awful season, losing 23-0 and gaining a grand total of 181 yards. The Redskins, meanwhile, may have gotten more news coverage on ESPN this week, than any 3-10 team has ever gotten. The drama surrounding Mike Shanahan and the quarterback situation finally got a bit of rest as the 'Skins actually had to play a game in the Georgia Dome against an equally disappointing Atlanta Falcons team. There was one stat in this game that showed how embarrassing these two teams have been this year: Washington's turnovers.
The 'Skins had seven turnovers, yet the Falcons only won by one point. There was one sequence where on three plays in a row, there was a turnover (Alfred Morris fumble, Matt Ryan sack and fumble, then a completion to Santana Moss and he fumbled). Then, wanting to keep things interesting, the Redskins decide to go for two after they scored a TD with 18 seconds left to make the score 27-26. Look, I understand their logic. You're on the road, with a chance to win, and it's not like another loss will hurt (Rams fans were rejoicing when this decision happened as they have Washington's first round pick). The problem I have was that if the Redskins were really trying to win that game, you kick the PAT for overtime. You have all the momentum, and turnovers have been the only thing that have halted your offense. They gained 476 yards on a 29th ranked defense! Shanahan decided against this, went for two, and failed. The 'Skins nightmare season continues and it feels like only a matter of time before Shanahan is out the door.
The real fun started in the Philly-Minnesota game as the Eagles needed to keep pace with the Cowboys. This seemed like a dream game for the Eagles. After playing through a snow apocalypse last week, they got to move their high flying offense indoors. The Vikings, despite their record, have played teams tough down the stretch, but I don't think anyone expected the Vikes to win this game. Matt Cassel looked like he was back in New England, Greg Jennings looked like he was back in Green Bay, and Matt Asiata is a player in the NFL. Surprisingly, they were able to out shoot the Eagles en route to a 48-30 victory, with most of the Eagles' points coming in the second half. There was now legit concern in Philly as they opened the door for Dallas to really put a good hold on the division. But remember, it's the Cowboys. They want to be the stars of this soap opera.
Rather than win against the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers, the Cowboys decided to make things interesting. 26-3 at the half. Game over. 'Boys win. "Let's just run the ball in the second half and control the clock," said Jason Garrett never. Rather than go with a rational game plan, the Cowboys decided to air it out in the second half. Do they have the weapons to do so? Yes, of course. But the Cowboys needed first downs to move the chains and kill the clock, not necessarily TDs. Keep in mind, DeMarco Murray averaged 7.4 yards per carry that game. The fact that he wound up with less carries than Eddie Lacy even though the Packers were trailing most of the game, is ridiculous. Watching this game, I kept thinking, 'Here we go again.'
Rather than follow Football 101, the 'Boys allowed Matt Flynn to lead the Packers on a comeback for the ages, and possibly the one that gets Garrett fired (especially if they don't make the playoffs). The most amazing part of this whole drama, however, is that it's actually the Cowboys who still control their own destiny. Despite this meltdown, if they win out, they will win the NFC East. They face the Redskins this week, and face the Eagles in Week 17, most likely with the division on the line. Predicting this division is impossible, but the games are entertaining as heck. Even if you're not affiliated with any of these teams, you should try and catch a couple of their games. They'll make you laugh, cry, scratch your head, make you say 'ooh' and 'aah,' and keep you on the edge of your seat.
Drama Division, Part II
Not to be outdone, the NFC North is also making a play for their own drama. Quarterback drama dominated the headlines this past weekend as Aaron Rodgers couldn't go, Matt Cassel did go, and Jay Cutler returned to a Bears' fan base that seems to have zero love for him. The Packers, with that miracle win at Dallas, are somehow still in the thick of things. That defense is awful, but if they get A-Rod back, it could be trouble for the rest of the division. They get the Steelers at home and close out the season in the Windy City, so it's by no means an easy stretch run. Still, if A-Rod is at full health, it gives the Packers a shot to make some noise.
The Lions, meanwhile, had everything going for them. They swept the first place Bears earlier in the season, and have their final two games against teams with losing records in domes (home vs Giants, at Minnesota). They also have, I believe, the most talent of any team in the North. Unfortunately, talent alone doesn't win you games. Megatron had some terrible drops last night as the Lions lost to the Ravens, despite Baltimore not even scoring a TD. They looked like the classic Lions with dumb penalties, questionable play calling (empty backfield on 3rd and 1?!), and Stafford driving fans crazy with his passes going everywhere. With that loss, they actually fall to third in the division and are in real danger of being out of the playoffs before Week 17 even comes around. Even if they are still in it, I fully expect them to choke away that opportunity in their last game at Minnesota.
The Bears, meanwhile, had their own drama begin before the game even started. The decision to bench Josh McCown and start Jay Cutler was met with more than its fair share of critics. I thought the criticism was completely unwarranted. I also thought it was a good thing this game was played in Cleveland and not Chicago. I guarantee you that on Cutler's first bad incompletion, and especially on that pick 6, that he would have gotten booed unmercifully. Who knows what that would have done to his psyche. Despite a rocky start, Cutler was able to rally the troops and beat a fairly stout Cleveland defense to the tune of 31 offensive points with him contributing to 21 of them. Would McCown have thrown for 400 yards and 5 TDs? Maybe, but going back to Cutler was certainly the right decision, and he should start as long as he's healthy.
AFC Top Teams Falter
Denver, New England, and Cincinnati all had a chance to make a move for a playoff bye and home field advantage in the AFC. All three had winnable games. All three faltered. It started Thursday night when the Broncos welcomed San Diego to Mile High. San Diego gave them a scare the first time they played, but Denver prevailed. Surprisingly, it was San Diego's defense, and not Phillip Rivers and the offense, that won this game for the Chargers. They held a Wes Welker-less Broncos team to only 295 total yards en route to a 27-20 victory. The Chargers remain on life support for the playoffs, while the Broncos left the door open for the Patriots to nab home field as the Pats beat the Broncos in a Week 12 thriller.
Rather than seize the opportunity, the Pats came up yards short against an improved, but beatable, Dolphins team. Still, when the Dolphins scored with 1:15 left and the crowd was going crazy, I was thinking that they left too much time on the clock. Brady will get the ball back, do his Brady thing, and crush the hearts of Dolphins fans. Well, almost did. He even converted a fourth down that would have won it for the Dolphins. Instead, he marched them down the field and had a couple good shots at the end zone. One was dropped by Amendola and the other should have been a defensive pass interference call as he was trying to get it to Michael Hoomanawanui. His final pass guaranteed they would stay in second place in the AFC for one more week as it was intercepted in the end zone. Not quite enough Brady magic.
The Bengals, playing on Sunday Night Football, were able to see all the carnage happen to the teams ahead of them. They could now move into a tie with New England for the second seed, and put distance between themselves and Baltimore for the AFC North crown. Everything fell apart in Pittsburgh as the Bengals weren't able to do anything. The Steelers defense played like the defense of old as they held the Bengals to only 57 total rushing yards, forcing Andy Dalton to throw 44 times. That is not a recipe for success for the Bengals. Now, since the Bengals lost to the Ravens earlier this year, it is actually Baltimore that controls their own destiny. If the Ravens win out (home vs Pats, at Bengals), it will be them that win the division crown and a home playoff game. They'll need to find some more offense as field goals likely won't get it done against the Patriots like it did last night, but the opportunity is at least there for them to take.
The Curious Case of the New Orleans Saints
Never before have I seen such a discrepancy between a team's performance when they are at home and when they are on the road. They've looked scary good at home this year, and I would probably pick them to beat anyone in the Superdome, including Seattle and Denver. Once they leave those confines, however, it's like they forget how to play football. Their only comfortable road game this year was in Chicago, and even that got hairy at the end. Their other ones? A two point win over the Josh Freeman, yes that Josh Freeman, led Bucs, a three point loss to New England, a loss to the lowly Jets, a four point win over a struggling Atlanta team, an absolute beat down loss in Seattle, and most recently an 11 point loss to the Kellen Clemens led Rams. Bummer.
There was one point in the St. Louis game where Brees had 0 TDs and 2 interceptions, while Clemens had 2 TDs and 0 interceptions. The players are still the same, the coaches are still the same, they just can't seem to get it done on the road. Up next is a trip to Carolina, a team they just destroyed in the Superdome a couple of weeks ago. I'm not one to bet against Drew Brees, mainly because he's on my fantasy team, but I think that he and the Saints will struggle and lose this game. They squeaked out wins against bad Tampa and Atlanta teams, but Carolina will show up to play having that awful Sunday Night Football performance fresh in their minds. With a very good defense and ball control offense, I could see the Panthers winning this one comfortably and making the race for the number two seed in the NFC very interesting.
Current Playoff Standings (As of today)
AFC NFC
1. Denver 1. Seattle
2. New England 2. New Orleans
3. Cincinnati 3. Philly
4. Indianapolis 4. Chicago
5. Kansas City 5. Carolina
6. Baltimore 6. San Fran
Matty O
NFC East
Say what you will about the quality of play in this division, you cannot deny the entertainment value attached to these four teams on a week to week basis. The New York Giants were probably the most boring team from this division in Week 15 as they continued their awful season, losing 23-0 and gaining a grand total of 181 yards. The Redskins, meanwhile, may have gotten more news coverage on ESPN this week, than any 3-10 team has ever gotten. The drama surrounding Mike Shanahan and the quarterback situation finally got a bit of rest as the 'Skins actually had to play a game in the Georgia Dome against an equally disappointing Atlanta Falcons team. There was one stat in this game that showed how embarrassing these two teams have been this year: Washington's turnovers.
The 'Skins had seven turnovers, yet the Falcons only won by one point. There was one sequence where on three plays in a row, there was a turnover (Alfred Morris fumble, Matt Ryan sack and fumble, then a completion to Santana Moss and he fumbled). Then, wanting to keep things interesting, the Redskins decide to go for two after they scored a TD with 18 seconds left to make the score 27-26. Look, I understand their logic. You're on the road, with a chance to win, and it's not like another loss will hurt (Rams fans were rejoicing when this decision happened as they have Washington's first round pick). The problem I have was that if the Redskins were really trying to win that game, you kick the PAT for overtime. You have all the momentum, and turnovers have been the only thing that have halted your offense. They gained 476 yards on a 29th ranked defense! Shanahan decided against this, went for two, and failed. The 'Skins nightmare season continues and it feels like only a matter of time before Shanahan is out the door.
The real fun started in the Philly-Minnesota game as the Eagles needed to keep pace with the Cowboys. This seemed like a dream game for the Eagles. After playing through a snow apocalypse last week, they got to move their high flying offense indoors. The Vikings, despite their record, have played teams tough down the stretch, but I don't think anyone expected the Vikes to win this game. Matt Cassel looked like he was back in New England, Greg Jennings looked like he was back in Green Bay, and Matt Asiata is a player in the NFL. Surprisingly, they were able to out shoot the Eagles en route to a 48-30 victory, with most of the Eagles' points coming in the second half. There was now legit concern in Philly as they opened the door for Dallas to really put a good hold on the division. But remember, it's the Cowboys. They want to be the stars of this soap opera.
Rather than win against the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers, the Cowboys decided to make things interesting. 26-3 at the half. Game over. 'Boys win. "Let's just run the ball in the second half and control the clock," said Jason Garrett never. Rather than go with a rational game plan, the Cowboys decided to air it out in the second half. Do they have the weapons to do so? Yes, of course. But the Cowboys needed first downs to move the chains and kill the clock, not necessarily TDs. Keep in mind, DeMarco Murray averaged 7.4 yards per carry that game. The fact that he wound up with less carries than Eddie Lacy even though the Packers were trailing most of the game, is ridiculous. Watching this game, I kept thinking, 'Here we go again.'
Rather than follow Football 101, the 'Boys allowed Matt Flynn to lead the Packers on a comeback for the ages, and possibly the one that gets Garrett fired (especially if they don't make the playoffs). The most amazing part of this whole drama, however, is that it's actually the Cowboys who still control their own destiny. Despite this meltdown, if they win out, they will win the NFC East. They face the Redskins this week, and face the Eagles in Week 17, most likely with the division on the line. Predicting this division is impossible, but the games are entertaining as heck. Even if you're not affiliated with any of these teams, you should try and catch a couple of their games. They'll make you laugh, cry, scratch your head, make you say 'ooh' and 'aah,' and keep you on the edge of your seat.
Drama Division, Part II
Not to be outdone, the NFC North is also making a play for their own drama. Quarterback drama dominated the headlines this past weekend as Aaron Rodgers couldn't go, Matt Cassel did go, and Jay Cutler returned to a Bears' fan base that seems to have zero love for him. The Packers, with that miracle win at Dallas, are somehow still in the thick of things. That defense is awful, but if they get A-Rod back, it could be trouble for the rest of the division. They get the Steelers at home and close out the season in the Windy City, so it's by no means an easy stretch run. Still, if A-Rod is at full health, it gives the Packers a shot to make some noise.
The Lions, meanwhile, had everything going for them. They swept the first place Bears earlier in the season, and have their final two games against teams with losing records in domes (home vs Giants, at Minnesota). They also have, I believe, the most talent of any team in the North. Unfortunately, talent alone doesn't win you games. Megatron had some terrible drops last night as the Lions lost to the Ravens, despite Baltimore not even scoring a TD. They looked like the classic Lions with dumb penalties, questionable play calling (empty backfield on 3rd and 1?!), and Stafford driving fans crazy with his passes going everywhere. With that loss, they actually fall to third in the division and are in real danger of being out of the playoffs before Week 17 even comes around. Even if they are still in it, I fully expect them to choke away that opportunity in their last game at Minnesota.
The Bears, meanwhile, had their own drama begin before the game even started. The decision to bench Josh McCown and start Jay Cutler was met with more than its fair share of critics. I thought the criticism was completely unwarranted. I also thought it was a good thing this game was played in Cleveland and not Chicago. I guarantee you that on Cutler's first bad incompletion, and especially on that pick 6, that he would have gotten booed unmercifully. Who knows what that would have done to his psyche. Despite a rocky start, Cutler was able to rally the troops and beat a fairly stout Cleveland defense to the tune of 31 offensive points with him contributing to 21 of them. Would McCown have thrown for 400 yards and 5 TDs? Maybe, but going back to Cutler was certainly the right decision, and he should start as long as he's healthy.
AFC Top Teams Falter
Denver, New England, and Cincinnati all had a chance to make a move for a playoff bye and home field advantage in the AFC. All three had winnable games. All three faltered. It started Thursday night when the Broncos welcomed San Diego to Mile High. San Diego gave them a scare the first time they played, but Denver prevailed. Surprisingly, it was San Diego's defense, and not Phillip Rivers and the offense, that won this game for the Chargers. They held a Wes Welker-less Broncos team to only 295 total yards en route to a 27-20 victory. The Chargers remain on life support for the playoffs, while the Broncos left the door open for the Patriots to nab home field as the Pats beat the Broncos in a Week 12 thriller.
Rather than seize the opportunity, the Pats came up yards short against an improved, but beatable, Dolphins team. Still, when the Dolphins scored with 1:15 left and the crowd was going crazy, I was thinking that they left too much time on the clock. Brady will get the ball back, do his Brady thing, and crush the hearts of Dolphins fans. Well, almost did. He even converted a fourth down that would have won it for the Dolphins. Instead, he marched them down the field and had a couple good shots at the end zone. One was dropped by Amendola and the other should have been a defensive pass interference call as he was trying to get it to Michael Hoomanawanui. His final pass guaranteed they would stay in second place in the AFC for one more week as it was intercepted in the end zone. Not quite enough Brady magic.
The Bengals, playing on Sunday Night Football, were able to see all the carnage happen to the teams ahead of them. They could now move into a tie with New England for the second seed, and put distance between themselves and Baltimore for the AFC North crown. Everything fell apart in Pittsburgh as the Bengals weren't able to do anything. The Steelers defense played like the defense of old as they held the Bengals to only 57 total rushing yards, forcing Andy Dalton to throw 44 times. That is not a recipe for success for the Bengals. Now, since the Bengals lost to the Ravens earlier this year, it is actually Baltimore that controls their own destiny. If the Ravens win out (home vs Pats, at Bengals), it will be them that win the division crown and a home playoff game. They'll need to find some more offense as field goals likely won't get it done against the Patriots like it did last night, but the opportunity is at least there for them to take.
The Curious Case of the New Orleans Saints
Never before have I seen such a discrepancy between a team's performance when they are at home and when they are on the road. They've looked scary good at home this year, and I would probably pick them to beat anyone in the Superdome, including Seattle and Denver. Once they leave those confines, however, it's like they forget how to play football. Their only comfortable road game this year was in Chicago, and even that got hairy at the end. Their other ones? A two point win over the Josh Freeman, yes that Josh Freeman, led Bucs, a three point loss to New England, a loss to the lowly Jets, a four point win over a struggling Atlanta team, an absolute beat down loss in Seattle, and most recently an 11 point loss to the Kellen Clemens led Rams. Bummer.
There was one point in the St. Louis game where Brees had 0 TDs and 2 interceptions, while Clemens had 2 TDs and 0 interceptions. The players are still the same, the coaches are still the same, they just can't seem to get it done on the road. Up next is a trip to Carolina, a team they just destroyed in the Superdome a couple of weeks ago. I'm not one to bet against Drew Brees, mainly because he's on my fantasy team, but I think that he and the Saints will struggle and lose this game. They squeaked out wins against bad Tampa and Atlanta teams, but Carolina will show up to play having that awful Sunday Night Football performance fresh in their minds. With a very good defense and ball control offense, I could see the Panthers winning this one comfortably and making the race for the number two seed in the NFC very interesting.
Current Playoff Standings (As of today)
AFC NFC
1. Denver 1. Seattle
2. New England 2. New Orleans
3. Cincinnati 3. Philly
4. Indianapolis 4. Chicago
5. Kansas City 5. Carolina
6. Baltimore 6. San Fran
Matty O
Monday, December 9, 2013
2013-14 Bowl Preview
Finally, after years of disagreement and controversy, the BCS will retire following this bowl season. Even better, is the fact that the National Championship game seems to feature the consensus top two teams in the nation. Auburn would have had a very strong argument even if Ohio State had won the Big Ten. Florida State has been the most consistently dominant team throughout this season, including a 45-7 thrashing of Duke in the ACC Championship. It should make for a great matchup on January 6th as Auburn looks to get the SEC its eighth consecutive National Championship, and FSU seeks its first since 1999. Prior to that date, however, are numerous intriguing bowl games that will surely whet your college football appetite.
Best Non-BCS Bowl Bowl Game
Oklahoma State vs Missouri, AT&T Cotton Bowl, January 3rd
This might actually wind up being the most entertaining bowl of the whole bowl season. Both teams will surely come into this game feeling disappointed after losing their final game of the season, I guarantee you they will both be up to play. They'll both want to prove that their season was no joke and finish strong. Adding to this is the fact that these two teams are actually quite familiar with each other, with Missouri being a former Big 12 member. OSU will want to represent the Big 12 well, while Mizzou will want to prove they were right to leave the Big 12 behind. This should be quite an offensive show as Missouri and OSU rank 16th and 15th in the nation, respectively, in points for. I'll take OSU in a slight upset as their defense is a bit better than Missouri's.
Disappointment Bowl
Oregon vs Texas, Valero Alamo Bowl, December 30th
Oregon came into 2013 guns a blazing, despite losing their head coach Chip Kelly to the Eagles. They were absolutely destroying teams early in the year, scoring a minimum of 42 points each of their first eight games. This included a trip to Washington and hosting #12 UCLA. Then came a tricky Thursday night game in early November in Stanford, where everything fell apart. They were held to 20 points, with 13 of those points coming in the final five minutes of the game. Despite this setback, they were still in the hunt for a BCS bowl game. Then, perhaps more surprisingly, they were dominated on the road by an unranked Arizona team and lost 42-16. Upsets are one thing, but getting destroyed in an upset is another. Now they wind up not even playing on New Year's Day. Ducks fans can find solace in the fact that Marcus Mariota announced he will come back to school next year.
Texas is an example of just how far a team can fall from grace. Normally a perennial contender under Mack Brown, the Longhorns lost back to back games early in the year at BYU and against Ole Miss. Despite beating Iowa State in controversial fashion, there was talk that Brown should be replaced. Brown took himself off the hot seat by beating down Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, but raised the question once again by getting hammered by the other two ranked teams they faced, as they fell to Oklahoma State (38-13) and Baylor (30-10) with the Big 12 Title on the line. If there's a silver lining for the Longhorns in this game, it's the fact that it is played in San Antonio. That likely won't be enough as Oregon should throttle the Longhorns. I'll take the Ducks by at least three TDs.
Game That Should Be A Bigger Deal
Fresno State vs USC, Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl, December 21st
For the most part, the later the bowl is, the more important it is and the better the teams are. Here is an exception. This is actually the second bowl to kick off the bowl season, yet features two teams who finished ranked. USC will be using its third different head coach this year, and Fresno State will be wondering what could have been. Fresno had a very similar story to NIU, as they played in a weak conference, but were undefeated and handling teams with ease. Then came a Friday game at San Jose State. Not sure if they still had a turkey hangover, but San Jose State dropped 62 points on them in a non-overtime game, and won 62-52. Fresno's BCS hopes were dashed and, due to the lack of Mountain West bowl tie-ins, they wind up as an 11-1 team playing in the Las Vegas Bowl.
USC disappointment meanwhile, happened throughout the year, not just at the end. They lost to Washington State and were pulverized by Arizona State before firing head coach Lane Kiffin. The team rallied behind interim head coach Ed Orgeron, but lost its remaining two rivalry games to Notre Dame and UCLA. After not being offered the head coaching job at USC, Orgeron left the team leaving the Trojans in a state of limbo. This game is hard to call, but I'll take Fresno to beat the team from the power conference.
Potential Biggest Blowout
Oklahoma vs Alabama, Allstate Sugar Bowl, January 2nd
I was going to pick LSU over Iowa as the biggest blowout, but starting LSU QB Zach Mettenberger got injured and won't play. A lot of people probably see the Baylor/UCF game as the biggest one, but I actually think UCF will keep it closer than people think. Alabama, meanwhile, had its only loss come on the road to a team playing in the National Championship game. It took three missed field goals and a missed field goal return for a TD just to beat them. I'm still not convinced that if Auburn and Alabama played 10 times, that Alabama wouldn't win the majority of time. Alas, Alabama still gets a BCS bowl berth, and should have a decidedly home crowd advantage.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, actually finished behind Oregon, South Carolina, and Missouri in the final rankings, but got into a BCS bowl. Go figure. Their case was certainly strengthened by a win over Oklahoma State this past weekend. Still, they have two losses on their record and have played a lesser schedule than Alabama. On top of that, Oklahoma's starting quarterback Trevor Knight got injured in the OSU game. Even though Blake Bell was able to come in and perform effectively to win the OSU game, it's still a downgrade. Alabama has one of the best defenses in the country, and they'll look to make a statement. Bold final score prediction: 'Bama - 45, OU - 3.
Defensive Bowl
Stanford vs Michigan State, Rose Bowl, January 1st
If scoring is your thing, this might be one to skip. Both teams are ranked in the top 10 in points against. Stanford has shut down the likes of Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona State, while the Spartans grounded Michigan and held Ohio State to its lowest point total of the season. Both team's offenses have the ability to put up points (see: Stanford's two games against Arizona State, Michigan State vs Ohio State), but I doubt they will. I expect an old school slug fest with little scoring, and plenty of hard hits. Ball control will be critical in this game as I expect few possessions for both teams and a field goal battle to ensue. I'll take the Spartans to end the Big 10's recent slump in the Rose Bowl.
National Championship
Auburn vs Florida State, National Championship, January 6th
While I would argue that from a matchup standpoint, Alabama would present more problems for Florida State, it is Auburn that wound up in the title game. The reason I think Florida State could run away with this one is how bad the Tigers' defense has been recently. Even though their three recent victories have been impressive and memorable, they have given up 38, 28, and 42 points in those games. Florida State's offense is more dangerous than the three Auburn faced in those games (Georgia, Alabama, Missouri), so I expect them to put up points in bunches. Florida State has actually scored 42 points in a half this season (42 vs Maryland). Auburn will have to keep up point for point with the Seminoles, and I don't think they can do so.
Auburn is still a one dimensional team, with a run first, middle, and last mentality. Florida State has one of, if not the, most athletic defenses in the country. Lost in the hype that their offense and Jameis Winston have gotten is the fact that Florida State's defense has been just as dominant. The Seminole defense has actually given up less points in their last five games than Auburn did this past Saturday. If they can stop, or at least slow down, this Auburn rushing attack, then I think the Seminoles have it in the bag. It'll be close early, but I think Florida State pulls away late as they win 38-14.
Matty O
Best Non-BCS Bowl Bowl Game
Oklahoma State vs Missouri, AT&T Cotton Bowl, January 3rd
This might actually wind up being the most entertaining bowl of the whole bowl season. Both teams will surely come into this game feeling disappointed after losing their final game of the season, I guarantee you they will both be up to play. They'll both want to prove that their season was no joke and finish strong. Adding to this is the fact that these two teams are actually quite familiar with each other, with Missouri being a former Big 12 member. OSU will want to represent the Big 12 well, while Mizzou will want to prove they were right to leave the Big 12 behind. This should be quite an offensive show as Missouri and OSU rank 16th and 15th in the nation, respectively, in points for. I'll take OSU in a slight upset as their defense is a bit better than Missouri's.
Disappointment Bowl
Oregon vs Texas, Valero Alamo Bowl, December 30th
Oregon came into 2013 guns a blazing, despite losing their head coach Chip Kelly to the Eagles. They were absolutely destroying teams early in the year, scoring a minimum of 42 points each of their first eight games. This included a trip to Washington and hosting #12 UCLA. Then came a tricky Thursday night game in early November in Stanford, where everything fell apart. They were held to 20 points, with 13 of those points coming in the final five minutes of the game. Despite this setback, they were still in the hunt for a BCS bowl game. Then, perhaps more surprisingly, they were dominated on the road by an unranked Arizona team and lost 42-16. Upsets are one thing, but getting destroyed in an upset is another. Now they wind up not even playing on New Year's Day. Ducks fans can find solace in the fact that Marcus Mariota announced he will come back to school next year.
Texas is an example of just how far a team can fall from grace. Normally a perennial contender under Mack Brown, the Longhorns lost back to back games early in the year at BYU and against Ole Miss. Despite beating Iowa State in controversial fashion, there was talk that Brown should be replaced. Brown took himself off the hot seat by beating down Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, but raised the question once again by getting hammered by the other two ranked teams they faced, as they fell to Oklahoma State (38-13) and Baylor (30-10) with the Big 12 Title on the line. If there's a silver lining for the Longhorns in this game, it's the fact that it is played in San Antonio. That likely won't be enough as Oregon should throttle the Longhorns. I'll take the Ducks by at least three TDs.
Game That Should Be A Bigger Deal
Fresno State vs USC, Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl, December 21st
For the most part, the later the bowl is, the more important it is and the better the teams are. Here is an exception. This is actually the second bowl to kick off the bowl season, yet features two teams who finished ranked. USC will be using its third different head coach this year, and Fresno State will be wondering what could have been. Fresno had a very similar story to NIU, as they played in a weak conference, but were undefeated and handling teams with ease. Then came a Friday game at San Jose State. Not sure if they still had a turkey hangover, but San Jose State dropped 62 points on them in a non-overtime game, and won 62-52. Fresno's BCS hopes were dashed and, due to the lack of Mountain West bowl tie-ins, they wind up as an 11-1 team playing in the Las Vegas Bowl.
USC disappointment meanwhile, happened throughout the year, not just at the end. They lost to Washington State and were pulverized by Arizona State before firing head coach Lane Kiffin. The team rallied behind interim head coach Ed Orgeron, but lost its remaining two rivalry games to Notre Dame and UCLA. After not being offered the head coaching job at USC, Orgeron left the team leaving the Trojans in a state of limbo. This game is hard to call, but I'll take Fresno to beat the team from the power conference.
Potential Biggest Blowout
Oklahoma vs Alabama, Allstate Sugar Bowl, January 2nd
I was going to pick LSU over Iowa as the biggest blowout, but starting LSU QB Zach Mettenberger got injured and won't play. A lot of people probably see the Baylor/UCF game as the biggest one, but I actually think UCF will keep it closer than people think. Alabama, meanwhile, had its only loss come on the road to a team playing in the National Championship game. It took three missed field goals and a missed field goal return for a TD just to beat them. I'm still not convinced that if Auburn and Alabama played 10 times, that Alabama wouldn't win the majority of time. Alas, Alabama still gets a BCS bowl berth, and should have a decidedly home crowd advantage.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, actually finished behind Oregon, South Carolina, and Missouri in the final rankings, but got into a BCS bowl. Go figure. Their case was certainly strengthened by a win over Oklahoma State this past weekend. Still, they have two losses on their record and have played a lesser schedule than Alabama. On top of that, Oklahoma's starting quarterback Trevor Knight got injured in the OSU game. Even though Blake Bell was able to come in and perform effectively to win the OSU game, it's still a downgrade. Alabama has one of the best defenses in the country, and they'll look to make a statement. Bold final score prediction: 'Bama - 45, OU - 3.
Defensive Bowl
Stanford vs Michigan State, Rose Bowl, January 1st
If scoring is your thing, this might be one to skip. Both teams are ranked in the top 10 in points against. Stanford has shut down the likes of Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona State, while the Spartans grounded Michigan and held Ohio State to its lowest point total of the season. Both team's offenses have the ability to put up points (see: Stanford's two games against Arizona State, Michigan State vs Ohio State), but I doubt they will. I expect an old school slug fest with little scoring, and plenty of hard hits. Ball control will be critical in this game as I expect few possessions for both teams and a field goal battle to ensue. I'll take the Spartans to end the Big 10's recent slump in the Rose Bowl.
National Championship
Auburn vs Florida State, National Championship, January 6th
While I would argue that from a matchup standpoint, Alabama would present more problems for Florida State, it is Auburn that wound up in the title game. The reason I think Florida State could run away with this one is how bad the Tigers' defense has been recently. Even though their three recent victories have been impressive and memorable, they have given up 38, 28, and 42 points in those games. Florida State's offense is more dangerous than the three Auburn faced in those games (Georgia, Alabama, Missouri), so I expect them to put up points in bunches. Florida State has actually scored 42 points in a half this season (42 vs Maryland). Auburn will have to keep up point for point with the Seminoles, and I don't think they can do so.
Auburn is still a one dimensional team, with a run first, middle, and last mentality. Florida State has one of, if not the, most athletic defenses in the country. Lost in the hype that their offense and Jameis Winston have gotten is the fact that Florida State's defense has been just as dominant. The Seminole defense has actually given up less points in their last five games than Auburn did this past Saturday. If they can stop, or at least slow down, this Auburn rushing attack, then I think the Seminoles have it in the bag. It'll be close early, but I think Florida State pulls away late as they win 38-14.
Matty O
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
2013 Fantasy Football Playoffs Guide
Congrats fellow playoff-er, you've made it through 13 grueling weeks and have earned a spot in your league's fantasy playoffs. While some of you may still have a week of the regular season left with your playoffs starting Week 15, this will still be helpful to try and get into the playoffs if you need some extra help in your Week 14 matchup. For me, similar to last year, it was polar opposites how I did in my two leagues. 1st out of 14 in my PPR, 9th out of 12 in my standard (probably should have been worse). So hopefully you made the playoffs in at least one of your leagues and have a chance to become your league's fantasy football champion. This article will give you some tips, matchups, and things that I personally like to do to get an edge in the final three weeks of the season.
Back It Up
I mentioned this in my mid season fantasy football article, but it bears repeating. The ultimate equalizer/team destroyer, is injuries. It's great that Jamaal Charles is playing lights out this year, but if he goes down, I doubt anyone on your bench can replace him. There's also a good chance that one of your other league mates will pick up his backup the next week off the waiver wire. That is why this week, not after your star player gets injured is when you should pick up their back up regardless if he's a health risk or not.
The reason why you didn't carry a backup during the regular season is because you wanted to stash a player or were looking for potential. It's Week 14 and the fantasy season ends Week 16. The only player of note that still has yet to return is Ravens' tight end Dennis Pitta, and they're not even sure if he'll come back (Aaron Rodgers is also coming back, but I doubt he was dropped in your league). Michael Crabtree is back, Shane Vereen is back, Percy Harvin is on the way. At this point, there's really no star player to stash on one's bench in hopes that they will explode in the fantasy playoffs. With that in mind, you should have space on your bench for a backup.
For example, in my PPR league I have Drew Brees. I've started him every game this year, except his bye obviously, and he has had zero injury concerns. Even with two matchups against the Panthers looming, he's still a top 5 QB play in fantasy. Having said that, I'm still going to pick up a quarterback off the waiver wire this week. Thankfully I have a bye this week, but if Brees goes down in Week 14, I would be sunk in the playoffs without a decent option. The last thing you want is a situation like this and be forced to start Brandon Weeden when your opponent has Peyton Manning.
If you've made it this far, chances are your starting lineup looks about the same week to week. Assuming no injuries, I plan on starting the same nine players in my PPR league the rest of the way. You might have one or two players you swap in and out, but the point is that you should have room to get your backups. It's always good to be prepared, and even more important once the playoffs start.
Matchups
Although matchups can determine whether or not to start borderline players, it is not a reason to bench your studs. This past week, I still started Brees in Seattle, DeSean Jackson against Patrick Peterson and the Cards, and Vincent Jackson against a strong Carolina defense. Still winning my matchup probably made it easier to handle, but I'm not sorry I started any of them even if some of my bench players outscored them. The last thing you want is to put a Brees or Tom Brady on your bench, only to see them throw for 350 yards and 4 TDs. Even if you have a stud player going up to Seattle, I would still play them. Brees certainly struggled there last night, but keep in mind that rookie Mike Glennon threw for a pair of TDs and zero interceptions there, so they can be beat.
You should mainly watch matchups when thinking about defenses and kickers. Kicker is probably the hardest position to predict in fantasy. In a dream scenario, you want what happened with the Colts on Sunday. You want a good enough offense to move the ball facing a good enough defense to stop them when they get close to the end zone. A lot of the experts will rank kickers on potent offenses higher, but sometimes an offense can be too potent. Denver put up 35 points this weekend, but K Matt Prater only netted you 5 points. Compare that to the Colts who put up 22 points, but K Adam Vinatieri put up 20. I would say that easy matchups are actually dangerous for kickers, and you should look for matchups against middle of the road defenses.
Defense, on the other hand, is all about good matchups. Unless you own a team like the Seahawks or 49ers, chances are you choose defenses based on matchups week to week. A sound strategy and one that I used in both my leagues. The main thing to keep in mind is the difference between fantasy and reality. For fantasy purposes, the Jets' defense is lousy. They don't get a lot of turnovers and have to deal with short fields due to Geno Smith being so inept. In reality, however, they're a pretty stout defense. They pressure the QB, knock down passes, and make it difficult to move the football. You should also keep this in mind when looking for favorable matchups against offensive teams.
The Buccaneers, for example, are 3-9 and starting a rookie QB. Start whichever defense is playing them every week right? Not quite. They really don't turn the ball over that often as Glennon has only five interceptions in nine career starts. Two of them came in his first start against the talented Cardinals secondary, so I'll give him a bit of a pass for that one. The offense isn't going to light up the scoreboard, but it's not going to turn the ball over either, which is what you need from a fantasy defense. Be sure to tread carefully if you think you have a "good" matchup.
Safe Play vs Boom or Bust
Now that the playoffs have started, getting the most points is irrelevant. Points For is normally the first tiebreaker, but now it doesn't matter if you win by 1 or 100. A win advances you to the next round. With that in mind, you should seriously evaluate whether or not to play your safe players or your boom or bust players. An example of a safe player would be Pierre Garcon. You know he's going to get a good amount of targets, but is stuck in an offense that likes to run the ball and has no one else as a viable threat to draw coverage away from Garcon. That means, especially in PPR leagues, he'll get you solid production based on sheer volume, but will never approach the monster numbers a Calvin Johnson or AJ Green can put up.
An example of a boom or bust type player is Vincent Jackson. Speaking from personal experience, Jackson has been very up and down this year. Indeed, his lows have been bad, but his highs have been phenomenal. 114 yards and 2 TDs in Week 6 followed by 138 and 2 TDs in Week 7, and 165 and 1 TD in Week 11. He's proven, unlike someone like Garcon, that he can put up huge numbers, but also proven that he can kill your team with back to back yardage totals of 11 and 28 in Weeks 9 and 10 with zero TDs. Week 9 saw the Bucs face Seattle, so I'll give him a bit of a pass, but against the Miami secondary? C'mon man. The question becomes, how to determine which ones to play?
For starters, I would examine your own team. If your QB and RBs have favorable matchups, perhaps you play your safe option. You know your other team members will put up great numbers, so you just need decent production from this position. If you see a lot of tough matchups, however, I might go with the boom or bust guy. If I have a QB going against Seattle and my RBs going against San Francisco and the Jets, then chances are they won't put up a lot of points. In a PPR league, if I play my safe player, chances are I'll get between 12-18 points. That won't matter though if my other players put up low numbers. That is a scenario where you need the Vincent Jackson 30+ points. He might put up 10 or less as well, but you would have lost either way. You might as well take the risk and hope he booms, rather than take the guaranteed 12-18 knowing there's a good chance that won't be enough.
The other scenario is doing the same thing with your opponent, except reversing the logic. If he has a bunch of players with bad matchups, then play your safe ones. Chances are you won't need huge numbers from that boom or bust player and the safe player will help pad your lead. The final scenario is if you are behind heading into the late games and your opponent has already played all their players. The amount you're down by should determine who to play. Down by 25? Give me a Vincent Jackson or Mike Wallace who have the ability to break a big one. Down by 10? Give me a Steve Smith or Garcon who are guaranteed to see at least 7-8 targets. Know who is who on your roster.
Favorable Matchups
Denver Broncos
As if you needed another reason to start a Bronco. They get the Titans and Chargers at home before heading to Houston where Tom Brady just shredded the Texans' defense. Honestly, the only fear here is they get so far ahead that they pull their starters.
Kansas City Chiefs
If you have Jamaal Charles, he may just win you your title with these matchups. Washington, Oakland, and Indy all await this vaunted Chiefs' running attack and my guess is they'll do nothing to stop it.
San Diego Chargers
This is an endorsement of the entire Chargers' passing attack. They get the Giants and Raiders at home with the Broncos sandwiched in between at Denver. They'll have to throw in that game and the Raiders and Giants' passing defenses are nothing to write home about. Phillip Rivers has played lights out in favorable matchups this year.
Baltimore Ravens
The Vikings and Patriots at home and a game against the Lions in a dome on Monday Night Football. All the Ravens players will be great plays down the stretch, especially if they get Dennis Pitta back in the offense.
Houston Texans
Not only do they get to face the Jags, Colts, and Broncos, but they are the only team that won't have to worry about inclement weather the rest of the year. They go to Jacksonville, get Indy at Lucas Oil, and face the Broncos back at home.
Green Bay Packers
Atlanta at home, indoors at Cowboy stadium, then back home against the Steelers. No matter who is starting at QB, you have to like the matchups those defenses present.
Dallas Cowboys
They get the Bears in Chicago, Green Bay at home, and Washington in DC. Not the best of all weather scenarios, but certainly beatable defenses. Even Romo's December curse may not be enough to hold this offense back.
Philadelphia Eagles
Honestly, I think the Eagles have a good chance to put up 35+ points the rest of the year. The Lions at home, in Minnesota's dome, and then at the Bears. This offense moves at a million miles per hour, and should hit the turbo boosters against these porous defenses.
Bad Matchups
New Orleans Saints
Don't bench Drew Brees or Jimmy Graham. They do, however, have some tricky opponents. They face the Panthers twice in a home and home in Weeks 14 and 16. Getting the Rams in a dome certainly helps, but the Saints have played poorly on the road and the Rams have a great pass rush.
Indianapolis Colts
This may be the most brutal three game stretch in the NFL. In Cincinnati where the Bengals' defense has been unstoppable, Houston at home, and in Kansas City. Any Andrew Luck owners who somehow managed to make it to the playoffs, I would be concerned.
Tennessee Titans
Their Week 16 matchup against Jacksonville provides some relief, but Chris Johnson owners might not even make it that far. Week 14 has them going to Denver and Week 15 welcomes the Cardinals to town. I know the Broncos can be thrown on, but it's likely the only ownable player on this team is CJ?K (maybe Kendall Wright). Denver is ranked 7th against the run, Arizona is ranked 4th.
There you have it folks. Not too many brutal fantasy playoffs for teams, but a lot of favorable matchups. Good luck to all in your quest for the title!
Matty O
Back It Up
I mentioned this in my mid season fantasy football article, but it bears repeating. The ultimate equalizer/team destroyer, is injuries. It's great that Jamaal Charles is playing lights out this year, but if he goes down, I doubt anyone on your bench can replace him. There's also a good chance that one of your other league mates will pick up his backup the next week off the waiver wire. That is why this week, not after your star player gets injured is when you should pick up their back up regardless if he's a health risk or not.
The reason why you didn't carry a backup during the regular season is because you wanted to stash a player or were looking for potential. It's Week 14 and the fantasy season ends Week 16. The only player of note that still has yet to return is Ravens' tight end Dennis Pitta, and they're not even sure if he'll come back (Aaron Rodgers is also coming back, but I doubt he was dropped in your league). Michael Crabtree is back, Shane Vereen is back, Percy Harvin is on the way. At this point, there's really no star player to stash on one's bench in hopes that they will explode in the fantasy playoffs. With that in mind, you should have space on your bench for a backup.
For example, in my PPR league I have Drew Brees. I've started him every game this year, except his bye obviously, and he has had zero injury concerns. Even with two matchups against the Panthers looming, he's still a top 5 QB play in fantasy. Having said that, I'm still going to pick up a quarterback off the waiver wire this week. Thankfully I have a bye this week, but if Brees goes down in Week 14, I would be sunk in the playoffs without a decent option. The last thing you want is a situation like this and be forced to start Brandon Weeden when your opponent has Peyton Manning.
If you've made it this far, chances are your starting lineup looks about the same week to week. Assuming no injuries, I plan on starting the same nine players in my PPR league the rest of the way. You might have one or two players you swap in and out, but the point is that you should have room to get your backups. It's always good to be prepared, and even more important once the playoffs start.
Matchups
Although matchups can determine whether or not to start borderline players, it is not a reason to bench your studs. This past week, I still started Brees in Seattle, DeSean Jackson against Patrick Peterson and the Cards, and Vincent Jackson against a strong Carolina defense. Still winning my matchup probably made it easier to handle, but I'm not sorry I started any of them even if some of my bench players outscored them. The last thing you want is to put a Brees or Tom Brady on your bench, only to see them throw for 350 yards and 4 TDs. Even if you have a stud player going up to Seattle, I would still play them. Brees certainly struggled there last night, but keep in mind that rookie Mike Glennon threw for a pair of TDs and zero interceptions there, so they can be beat.
You should mainly watch matchups when thinking about defenses and kickers. Kicker is probably the hardest position to predict in fantasy. In a dream scenario, you want what happened with the Colts on Sunday. You want a good enough offense to move the ball facing a good enough defense to stop them when they get close to the end zone. A lot of the experts will rank kickers on potent offenses higher, but sometimes an offense can be too potent. Denver put up 35 points this weekend, but K Matt Prater only netted you 5 points. Compare that to the Colts who put up 22 points, but K Adam Vinatieri put up 20. I would say that easy matchups are actually dangerous for kickers, and you should look for matchups against middle of the road defenses.
Defense, on the other hand, is all about good matchups. Unless you own a team like the Seahawks or 49ers, chances are you choose defenses based on matchups week to week. A sound strategy and one that I used in both my leagues. The main thing to keep in mind is the difference between fantasy and reality. For fantasy purposes, the Jets' defense is lousy. They don't get a lot of turnovers and have to deal with short fields due to Geno Smith being so inept. In reality, however, they're a pretty stout defense. They pressure the QB, knock down passes, and make it difficult to move the football. You should also keep this in mind when looking for favorable matchups against offensive teams.
The Buccaneers, for example, are 3-9 and starting a rookie QB. Start whichever defense is playing them every week right? Not quite. They really don't turn the ball over that often as Glennon has only five interceptions in nine career starts. Two of them came in his first start against the talented Cardinals secondary, so I'll give him a bit of a pass for that one. The offense isn't going to light up the scoreboard, but it's not going to turn the ball over either, which is what you need from a fantasy defense. Be sure to tread carefully if you think you have a "good" matchup.
Safe Play vs Boom or Bust
Now that the playoffs have started, getting the most points is irrelevant. Points For is normally the first tiebreaker, but now it doesn't matter if you win by 1 or 100. A win advances you to the next round. With that in mind, you should seriously evaluate whether or not to play your safe players or your boom or bust players. An example of a safe player would be Pierre Garcon. You know he's going to get a good amount of targets, but is stuck in an offense that likes to run the ball and has no one else as a viable threat to draw coverage away from Garcon. That means, especially in PPR leagues, he'll get you solid production based on sheer volume, but will never approach the monster numbers a Calvin Johnson or AJ Green can put up.
An example of a boom or bust type player is Vincent Jackson. Speaking from personal experience, Jackson has been very up and down this year. Indeed, his lows have been bad, but his highs have been phenomenal. 114 yards and 2 TDs in Week 6 followed by 138 and 2 TDs in Week 7, and 165 and 1 TD in Week 11. He's proven, unlike someone like Garcon, that he can put up huge numbers, but also proven that he can kill your team with back to back yardage totals of 11 and 28 in Weeks 9 and 10 with zero TDs. Week 9 saw the Bucs face Seattle, so I'll give him a bit of a pass, but against the Miami secondary? C'mon man. The question becomes, how to determine which ones to play?
For starters, I would examine your own team. If your QB and RBs have favorable matchups, perhaps you play your safe option. You know your other team members will put up great numbers, so you just need decent production from this position. If you see a lot of tough matchups, however, I might go with the boom or bust guy. If I have a QB going against Seattle and my RBs going against San Francisco and the Jets, then chances are they won't put up a lot of points. In a PPR league, if I play my safe player, chances are I'll get between 12-18 points. That won't matter though if my other players put up low numbers. That is a scenario where you need the Vincent Jackson 30+ points. He might put up 10 or less as well, but you would have lost either way. You might as well take the risk and hope he booms, rather than take the guaranteed 12-18 knowing there's a good chance that won't be enough.
The other scenario is doing the same thing with your opponent, except reversing the logic. If he has a bunch of players with bad matchups, then play your safe ones. Chances are you won't need huge numbers from that boom or bust player and the safe player will help pad your lead. The final scenario is if you are behind heading into the late games and your opponent has already played all their players. The amount you're down by should determine who to play. Down by 25? Give me a Vincent Jackson or Mike Wallace who have the ability to break a big one. Down by 10? Give me a Steve Smith or Garcon who are guaranteed to see at least 7-8 targets. Know who is who on your roster.
Favorable Matchups
Denver Broncos
As if you needed another reason to start a Bronco. They get the Titans and Chargers at home before heading to Houston where Tom Brady just shredded the Texans' defense. Honestly, the only fear here is they get so far ahead that they pull their starters.
Kansas City Chiefs
If you have Jamaal Charles, he may just win you your title with these matchups. Washington, Oakland, and Indy all await this vaunted Chiefs' running attack and my guess is they'll do nothing to stop it.
San Diego Chargers
This is an endorsement of the entire Chargers' passing attack. They get the Giants and Raiders at home with the Broncos sandwiched in between at Denver. They'll have to throw in that game and the Raiders and Giants' passing defenses are nothing to write home about. Phillip Rivers has played lights out in favorable matchups this year.
Baltimore Ravens
The Vikings and Patriots at home and a game against the Lions in a dome on Monday Night Football. All the Ravens players will be great plays down the stretch, especially if they get Dennis Pitta back in the offense.
Houston Texans
Not only do they get to face the Jags, Colts, and Broncos, but they are the only team that won't have to worry about inclement weather the rest of the year. They go to Jacksonville, get Indy at Lucas Oil, and face the Broncos back at home.
Green Bay Packers
Atlanta at home, indoors at Cowboy stadium, then back home against the Steelers. No matter who is starting at QB, you have to like the matchups those defenses present.
Dallas Cowboys
They get the Bears in Chicago, Green Bay at home, and Washington in DC. Not the best of all weather scenarios, but certainly beatable defenses. Even Romo's December curse may not be enough to hold this offense back.
Philadelphia Eagles
Honestly, I think the Eagles have a good chance to put up 35+ points the rest of the year. The Lions at home, in Minnesota's dome, and then at the Bears. This offense moves at a million miles per hour, and should hit the turbo boosters against these porous defenses.
Bad Matchups
New Orleans Saints
Don't bench Drew Brees or Jimmy Graham. They do, however, have some tricky opponents. They face the Panthers twice in a home and home in Weeks 14 and 16. Getting the Rams in a dome certainly helps, but the Saints have played poorly on the road and the Rams have a great pass rush.
Indianapolis Colts
This may be the most brutal three game stretch in the NFL. In Cincinnati where the Bengals' defense has been unstoppable, Houston at home, and in Kansas City. Any Andrew Luck owners who somehow managed to make it to the playoffs, I would be concerned.
Tennessee Titans
Their Week 16 matchup against Jacksonville provides some relief, but Chris Johnson owners might not even make it that far. Week 14 has them going to Denver and Week 15 welcomes the Cardinals to town. I know the Broncos can be thrown on, but it's likely the only ownable player on this team is CJ?K (maybe Kendall Wright). Denver is ranked 7th against the run, Arizona is ranked 4th.
There you have it folks. Not too many brutal fantasy playoffs for teams, but a lot of favorable matchups. Good luck to all in your quest for the title!
Matty O
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Who's Number Two?
If you missed the Auburn-Alabama game yesterday, I truly feel sorry for you. Even the SportsCenter highlights don't do it justice as the game was thrilling throughout. It was arguably the greatest college football game I've ever seen, second only to the USC-Texas National Championship game in 2006. The thing that perhaps gives USC-Texas the edge was that it was for all the marbles, both teams were undefeated, it was played at the Rose Bowl, and it was during USC's 2000s dynasty. Still, Auburn-Alabama had everything you could want as a football fan.
It had a blown coverage by Alabama early in the game, only to see Auburn QB Nick Marshall miss WR Ricardo Louis who was open by about 15 yards. It had a bobbled snap on an Alabama punt that got blocked. It had three missed Alabama field goals, which caused Nick Saban to go for it on fourth down when they were in field goal range only to be stuffed. It had a 99 yard TD pass from Alabama to take the lead in the fourth (a lead I thought they would not give up). It had a desperation, possibly illegal pass by Nick Marshall with under a minute left to tie the game. I'm still not sure why the refs didn't at least look at that play as he was very close to being past the line of scrimmage. It had a scenario where the game was over, one second was put back on the clock, and Auburn fans were booing the decision. Coincidentally, this led to the field goal attempt by Alabama, leading to the miraculous return to win the Iron Bowl for Auburn.
While the game itself was great, the mess it created at the top of the rankings is not. Ohio State fans would argue that there is no mess, but I would beg to differ. Florida State is the obvious number one, but behind them is an Ohio State team with a weak schedule and a couple close calls, a one loss Auburn team with the most momentum of any of the top teams after beating 'Bama, and a Missouri team whose only loss came in double overtime to a ranked South Carolina team. Now the debate begins, but a lot can still change. Let's take a look at what these teams face and their case for being in the title game.
Florida State
FSU is the obvious number one. If all three teams at the top win out (Mizzou plays Auburn in the SEC title game so one will lose), they are probably the only one that is guaranteed a spot in the title game. Apart from a fluky close game against Boston College, they have been blowing teams out of the water. They score points and prevent points as they have ripped the three ranked teams that they have played by a combined 155-28. They are a scary team, and it will take a great effort to beat them.
I only mention them here to say that they still have one more game, and Duke might give them trouble. Let's be honest, it's a long shot, but head coach David Cutcliffe has his Blue Devils playing up to their potential. There's really nothing in the stats to suggest an upset here, but you never know. If the Blue Devils do somehow pull the upset, it might still be possible for FSU to play for the title game. If Ohio State loses as well, then FSU, OSU, and the SEC Champion will all have one loss. Between the three, even losing the ACC Championship, I would still take FSU and the SEC Champion to battle it out for the National Championship.
Ohio State
Anyone who roots for the Buckeyes probably read articles like this and roll their eyes. They don't care about those one loss SEC teams, OSU points to the fact that they have zero losses. Undefeated. If you go undefeated in a major conference, shouldn't you get to play for the title? Well Buckeye fans, allow me to point out a few things working against you. For starters, OSU's schedule is certainly the weakest out of the four teams at the top. FSU's is pretty close, but they have demolished their opponents. OSU had close calls against Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and also gave up 35 points to Illinois. As an Illinois alum, I can safely say that allowing 35 points to the Illini, regardless of the score, is embarrassing.
There's also the fact that of the four teams at the top, OSU probably has the toughest match up, and that includes the SEC title game. I'll mention it later on in this article, but I actually think Auburn got a good draw with Mizzou and will handle their business. Michigan State, however, presents OSU's kryptonite; a good defense. The Spartans are fourth in the nation in points allowed, only giving up an average of 11.8 points per game. The thing about the Buckeyes is that they have a prolific offense, but their defense has been carved up this year, the latest of which being giving up 41 points to an unranked Michigan team (could have been worse had the Wolverines played for overtime). Although the Spartans don't have the firepower on offense that the Buckeyes do, they should be able to move the ball on that defense, while the Buckeyes will find a difficult time doing the same on the Spartans. As I mentioned before, if the top three teams all have one loss at the end of the year, I think the Buckeyes will be on the outside looking in.
Missouri & Auburn
I'll group these two teams together because they are playing each other, and both face similar scenarios. If they win, they will have a strong case to play in the title game, even over an undefeated Ohio State team. Auburn's list of impressive victories: Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, Georgia (when Aaron Murray was healthy), and Alabama. Missouri's list of impressive victories: at Georgia, at Ole Miss, and the clinching game yesterday against Texas A&M. Auburn has the best chance of jumping Ohio State simply because of the way their past two games have ended. Everyone has at least seen the highlights, and beating Alabama the past couple years has been no easy task. So now the SEC Championship might act as a preview of the playoff system next year. Win and you're in.
Personally, I thought Alabama would beat Auburn by a comfortable margin. Auburn was, and still is, a one dimensional team. If anyone can scheme to beat a one dimensional team, it's Nick Saban and the athletes he has on defense. I thought they would take that away, force Nick Marshall to throw to beat them, and shut them down. Alas, that was not the case as Auburn gashed Alabama for almost 300 yards. Now Auburn gets a less athletic Mizzou team that I think will be over matched. It's crazy to think that either of these teams are in the title game considering the awful seasons they had last year. An OSU loss will certainly help their cause, but either Mizzou or Auburn will walk out of this game with a victory over a top four team. On the last week of the season, how would they not jump OSU in that scenario?
Bottom Line
Here are the two most likely scenarios: FSU wins, OSU wins, and Auburn wins or FSU wins, OSU loses, and Auburn wins. In either scenario, I think it will be, and should be, Florida State facing Auburn for the National Title. The Big Ten has a less than favorable reputation as being a dominant football conference anymore, and OSU has its own bad reputation of not showing up recently in BCS games against teams from other conferences. I think that, coupled with the momentum that Auburn has built the past couple weeks will vault them past an undefeated OSU team if the Buckeyes win. OSU would need to blow out the Spartans and Auburn would have to play a sloppy game and barely get by Mizzou for Auburn to get left out. Momentum, history, and strength of schedule are all working against OSU. Can they hang on? Stay tuned.
Matty O
It had a blown coverage by Alabama early in the game, only to see Auburn QB Nick Marshall miss WR Ricardo Louis who was open by about 15 yards. It had a bobbled snap on an Alabama punt that got blocked. It had three missed Alabama field goals, which caused Nick Saban to go for it on fourth down when they were in field goal range only to be stuffed. It had a 99 yard TD pass from Alabama to take the lead in the fourth (a lead I thought they would not give up). It had a desperation, possibly illegal pass by Nick Marshall with under a minute left to tie the game. I'm still not sure why the refs didn't at least look at that play as he was very close to being past the line of scrimmage. It had a scenario where the game was over, one second was put back on the clock, and Auburn fans were booing the decision. Coincidentally, this led to the field goal attempt by Alabama, leading to the miraculous return to win the Iron Bowl for Auburn.
While the game itself was great, the mess it created at the top of the rankings is not. Ohio State fans would argue that there is no mess, but I would beg to differ. Florida State is the obvious number one, but behind them is an Ohio State team with a weak schedule and a couple close calls, a one loss Auburn team with the most momentum of any of the top teams after beating 'Bama, and a Missouri team whose only loss came in double overtime to a ranked South Carolina team. Now the debate begins, but a lot can still change. Let's take a look at what these teams face and their case for being in the title game.
Florida State
FSU is the obvious number one. If all three teams at the top win out (Mizzou plays Auburn in the SEC title game so one will lose), they are probably the only one that is guaranteed a spot in the title game. Apart from a fluky close game against Boston College, they have been blowing teams out of the water. They score points and prevent points as they have ripped the three ranked teams that they have played by a combined 155-28. They are a scary team, and it will take a great effort to beat them.
I only mention them here to say that they still have one more game, and Duke might give them trouble. Let's be honest, it's a long shot, but head coach David Cutcliffe has his Blue Devils playing up to their potential. There's really nothing in the stats to suggest an upset here, but you never know. If the Blue Devils do somehow pull the upset, it might still be possible for FSU to play for the title game. If Ohio State loses as well, then FSU, OSU, and the SEC Champion will all have one loss. Between the three, even losing the ACC Championship, I would still take FSU and the SEC Champion to battle it out for the National Championship.
Ohio State
Anyone who roots for the Buckeyes probably read articles like this and roll their eyes. They don't care about those one loss SEC teams, OSU points to the fact that they have zero losses. Undefeated. If you go undefeated in a major conference, shouldn't you get to play for the title? Well Buckeye fans, allow me to point out a few things working against you. For starters, OSU's schedule is certainly the weakest out of the four teams at the top. FSU's is pretty close, but they have demolished their opponents. OSU had close calls against Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and also gave up 35 points to Illinois. As an Illinois alum, I can safely say that allowing 35 points to the Illini, regardless of the score, is embarrassing.
There's also the fact that of the four teams at the top, OSU probably has the toughest match up, and that includes the SEC title game. I'll mention it later on in this article, but I actually think Auburn got a good draw with Mizzou and will handle their business. Michigan State, however, presents OSU's kryptonite; a good defense. The Spartans are fourth in the nation in points allowed, only giving up an average of 11.8 points per game. The thing about the Buckeyes is that they have a prolific offense, but their defense has been carved up this year, the latest of which being giving up 41 points to an unranked Michigan team (could have been worse had the Wolverines played for overtime). Although the Spartans don't have the firepower on offense that the Buckeyes do, they should be able to move the ball on that defense, while the Buckeyes will find a difficult time doing the same on the Spartans. As I mentioned before, if the top three teams all have one loss at the end of the year, I think the Buckeyes will be on the outside looking in.
Missouri & Auburn
I'll group these two teams together because they are playing each other, and both face similar scenarios. If they win, they will have a strong case to play in the title game, even over an undefeated Ohio State team. Auburn's list of impressive victories: Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, Georgia (when Aaron Murray was healthy), and Alabama. Missouri's list of impressive victories: at Georgia, at Ole Miss, and the clinching game yesterday against Texas A&M. Auburn has the best chance of jumping Ohio State simply because of the way their past two games have ended. Everyone has at least seen the highlights, and beating Alabama the past couple years has been no easy task. So now the SEC Championship might act as a preview of the playoff system next year. Win and you're in.
Personally, I thought Alabama would beat Auburn by a comfortable margin. Auburn was, and still is, a one dimensional team. If anyone can scheme to beat a one dimensional team, it's Nick Saban and the athletes he has on defense. I thought they would take that away, force Nick Marshall to throw to beat them, and shut them down. Alas, that was not the case as Auburn gashed Alabama for almost 300 yards. Now Auburn gets a less athletic Mizzou team that I think will be over matched. It's crazy to think that either of these teams are in the title game considering the awful seasons they had last year. An OSU loss will certainly help their cause, but either Mizzou or Auburn will walk out of this game with a victory over a top four team. On the last week of the season, how would they not jump OSU in that scenario?
Bottom Line
Here are the two most likely scenarios: FSU wins, OSU wins, and Auburn wins or FSU wins, OSU loses, and Auburn wins. In either scenario, I think it will be, and should be, Florida State facing Auburn for the National Title. The Big Ten has a less than favorable reputation as being a dominant football conference anymore, and OSU has its own bad reputation of not showing up recently in BCS games against teams from other conferences. I think that, coupled with the momentum that Auburn has built the past couple weeks will vault them past an undefeated OSU team if the Buckeyes win. OSU would need to blow out the Spartans and Auburn would have to play a sloppy game and barely get by Mizzou for Auburn to get left out. Momentum, history, and strength of schedule are all working against OSU. Can they hang on? Stay tuned.
Matty O
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Where's The Love For These Heisman Candidates?
The Heisman Trophy. The MVP of college football. A trophy with seemingly simple criteria to crown a winner, is often left open to debate. The front runner for this year's award has gone from Teddy Bridgewater to Johnny Manziel to Marcus Mariota to Jameis Winston, even Texas A&M tight end Mike Evans has been suggested for it by his head coach Kevin Sumlin. As is the case every year, however, there are always those players that never get the respect they deserve in the voting. Heck, some of them don't even get invited to the Heisman Trophy ceremony as a finalist. Now that these aforementioned top candidates for the trophy have suffered setbacks, on the field and off, it leaves the door open for the following three players to make their mark. Two are from non-automatic qualifying conferences, but one is from a major conference. Maybe the best conference in college football. Yet, despite quarterbacking the number one team in the nation, I still don't think he's gotten the attention he deserves.
A.J. McCarron, QB, University of Alabama
From a statistics perspective, McCarron is anything but impressive. He doesn't put up video game-like numbers that some of the other front runners have. He ranks a pedestrian 45th in passing yards, behind quarterbacks from the likes of Buffalo and North Texas. So why should he be getting more attention? Consistency, efficiency, and wins. While he ranks 45th in passing yards, he ranks 10th in passer rating and 11th in completion percentage, with a 23:5 TD to interception ratio. The knocks against McCarron are that he is surrounded with four and five star recruits on offense, and is often labeled an Alex Smith-esque game manager.
Even though he has talented players around him, it's not like Alabama is playing scrub teams. They faced Virginia Tech in non-conference play, then opened up SEC play at Texas A&M, while getting Ole Miss and LSU at home. As far as the game manager label is concerned, I think he shed that in the game at A&M. Going up against fellow Heisman candidate Manziel, McCarron went 20/29 for 334 yards, four TDs, and zero interceptions, including some clutch throws late in the game. Final score: Alabama - 49 Texas A&M - 42. Manziel had an impressive performance himself, but lost the game, threw two interceptions, and should have thrown a third. This game showed not only that McCarron deserved Heisman hype, but also shed some light on why his numbers might not be as high as the others mentioned for the Heisman.
Defense might win championships, but it might also prevent a quarterback from winning the Heisman. That A&M game was the only one this season where a team was able to match Alabama point for point. They have absolutely drubbed teams this year, causing Alabama to run the ball and play their backups. Head coach Nick Saban could care less who wins the Heisman, he just wants to win the National Championship. To accomplish that goal, he's not going to leave his quarterback out there in a blowout game.
Take the Arkansas game for example, where Alabama won 52-0. McCarron only threw for 180 yards, but had three TDs and zero interceptions. Saban put in backup QB Blake Sims and pounded the ball on the ground towards the end of the game. Nothing McCarron could do. I think that if he were called upon to put up gaudy numbers, he could do it on a week to week basis. The Auburn game next Saturday will be very telling. If McCarron beats Auburn to put him in line for a third National Championship, he has to be the front runner. How can you deny a player, who could potentially win three National Championships, a Heisman Trophy at least one of those years?
Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State University
Being a fan of NIU, I must say that I hope Fresno State loses if a BCS bowl berth is on the line between them and NIU. That being said, there is no denying what Fresno's quarterback has been able to do. Unlike McCarron, Carr does have the big numbers to support his cause. He's second in the nation in passing yards with 3,948 and first in the nation with 39 TDs (only four interceptions as well). His team is undefeated and ranked 15th in the BCS as of this writing, and should go up. So why has he barely, if at all, been mentioned for the Heisman? Basically, it comes down to who he plays.
Wins over Idaho, Hawaii, and Wyoming aren't exactly going to catch the national media's eye. They're in the Mountain West Conference, which certainly brings down their level of competition. I've always thought the argument against star players from smaller schools was always unfair because people would say that they're playing a bunch of cupcake teams. They would never survive against the Ohio State and LSU's of the world. Maybe, maybe not. But it's not like these players are playing with the recruits that go to the Ohio State and LSU's of the world. A five star recruit who is the second coming of Jerry Rice isn't going to go to a Fresno State or San Jose State. Often times, these players at smaller schools have to carry the burden for their entire team and lead them to victory. And this year, Carr has had to do that more than once.
Unlike the stout Alabama defense, Fresno State's defense has been like swiss cheese this year. They have given up a staggering amount of points, forcing Fresno to often times get into high scoring contests. Bad for looking good to BCS voters, good for looking good to Heisman voters. They've now had two games go to overtime, including their first game against Rutgers where their defense surrendered 51 points. Since September 21st, Alabama's defense has surrendered a combined total of 50 points. Fresno has also had a one point victory over Boise State, and a five point victory over Hawaii.
Carr has been sensational in all of those games, saving Fresno's BCS chances. Fresno's Carr led offense has scored at least 35 points in every game this season. His passing numbers are even more impressive when you consider that Fresno has only played 10 games this year due to a postponed game in Colorado back in September, whereas most teams have played 11 games by this point. While Carr probably has the longest shot out of these three players to get invited as a Heisman finalist, I think it's criminal that he is hardly even getting mentioned in the discussion.
Jordan Lynch, QB, Northern Illinois University
Lynch and Carr pretty much have the same narrative going. Great player, great numbers, small school, under appreciated skills. Unlike Carr and McCarron who make a name for themselves throwing the ball, Lynch also has outstanding running ability. He currently ranks 7th in total rushing yards with 1,434, the highest ranking of any quarterback in the nation. While his passing numbers aren't as outstanding, he has been efficient, tossing a 21:5 TD to interception ratio and ranking 25th in passer rating. Similar to Carr, his defense has put him in some close calls this year, but he's been able to pull them out of every one as NIU is undefeated and currently ranked one spot below Fresno in the BCS standings.
The difference between Carr and Lynch however, is twofold. The first difference is that Lynch has been able to build off of momentum from last year. People at least sort of, kind of knew who he was with NIU's appearance in the Orange Bowl. Was it the stuff of legends? No, but it was national exposure in a BCS game. Now that Lynch is following up last season with another outstanding season, people are starting to realize this guy isn't a fluke. Carr unfortunately didn't have that momentum coming into this year, so he's been fighting an uphill battle since late August. The problem is I don't think he'll have turned enough heads by the time the Heisman voting comes around.
The second difference is that the Huskies have played two teams (Iowa, Purdue) from major conferences, whereas Fresno State did not get that chance. This allows us and voters to be able to compare players on different teams against a mutual opponent. Purdue has been abysmal this year, so I'll disregard them, but Iowa was a respectable opponent, particularly their defense. They currently are 7-4 and rank 13th in points against. They played NIU in Kinnick Stadium the first game of the year. Lynch was able to account for 331 of NIU's 438 total yards and passed for every one of NIU's scores as they won on a last second field goal.
By comparison, Iowa played Ohio State's Braxton Miller, arguably the Big Ten's Heisman front runner and possibly national Heisman front runner had it not been for injury, in mid-October in the Horseshoe. Miller had a great day as well, accounting for 324 total yards with two TD tosses and no turnovers. So here you have two great QBs, going up against the same defense, both getting wins, but Lynch doing it with a lesser supporting cast. There's no telling if Lynch and the Huskies could do that game in and game out in the Big Ten, but putting up better numbers than a QB in the Big Ten against the same team has to count for something right?
Given the recent on the field struggles of Bridgewater, Manziel, and Mariota, and Winston's off the field issues, it would be a travesty if Lynch isn't at least invited. Barring a disaster against Western Michigan this Tuesday, Lynch will have put up ridiculous numbers two years in a row. If NIU gets invited to another BCS bowl, that just makes his argument even stronger. Some people are already writing him off saying he won't get invited, but the way things are going, how can you not? If McCarron, Carr, and Lynch aren't at least in the discussion for the Heisman Trophy, then something is seriously wrong with the system that determines who the best player in college football is.
Matty O
A.J. McCarron, QB, University of Alabama
From a statistics perspective, McCarron is anything but impressive. He doesn't put up video game-like numbers that some of the other front runners have. He ranks a pedestrian 45th in passing yards, behind quarterbacks from the likes of Buffalo and North Texas. So why should he be getting more attention? Consistency, efficiency, and wins. While he ranks 45th in passing yards, he ranks 10th in passer rating and 11th in completion percentage, with a 23:5 TD to interception ratio. The knocks against McCarron are that he is surrounded with four and five star recruits on offense, and is often labeled an Alex Smith-esque game manager.
Even though he has talented players around him, it's not like Alabama is playing scrub teams. They faced Virginia Tech in non-conference play, then opened up SEC play at Texas A&M, while getting Ole Miss and LSU at home. As far as the game manager label is concerned, I think he shed that in the game at A&M. Going up against fellow Heisman candidate Manziel, McCarron went 20/29 for 334 yards, four TDs, and zero interceptions, including some clutch throws late in the game. Final score: Alabama - 49 Texas A&M - 42. Manziel had an impressive performance himself, but lost the game, threw two interceptions, and should have thrown a third. This game showed not only that McCarron deserved Heisman hype, but also shed some light on why his numbers might not be as high as the others mentioned for the Heisman.
Defense might win championships, but it might also prevent a quarterback from winning the Heisman. That A&M game was the only one this season where a team was able to match Alabama point for point. They have absolutely drubbed teams this year, causing Alabama to run the ball and play their backups. Head coach Nick Saban could care less who wins the Heisman, he just wants to win the National Championship. To accomplish that goal, he's not going to leave his quarterback out there in a blowout game.
Take the Arkansas game for example, where Alabama won 52-0. McCarron only threw for 180 yards, but had three TDs and zero interceptions. Saban put in backup QB Blake Sims and pounded the ball on the ground towards the end of the game. Nothing McCarron could do. I think that if he were called upon to put up gaudy numbers, he could do it on a week to week basis. The Auburn game next Saturday will be very telling. If McCarron beats Auburn to put him in line for a third National Championship, he has to be the front runner. How can you deny a player, who could potentially win three National Championships, a Heisman Trophy at least one of those years?
Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State University
Being a fan of NIU, I must say that I hope Fresno State loses if a BCS bowl berth is on the line between them and NIU. That being said, there is no denying what Fresno's quarterback has been able to do. Unlike McCarron, Carr does have the big numbers to support his cause. He's second in the nation in passing yards with 3,948 and first in the nation with 39 TDs (only four interceptions as well). His team is undefeated and ranked 15th in the BCS as of this writing, and should go up. So why has he barely, if at all, been mentioned for the Heisman? Basically, it comes down to who he plays.
Wins over Idaho, Hawaii, and Wyoming aren't exactly going to catch the national media's eye. They're in the Mountain West Conference, which certainly brings down their level of competition. I've always thought the argument against star players from smaller schools was always unfair because people would say that they're playing a bunch of cupcake teams. They would never survive against the Ohio State and LSU's of the world. Maybe, maybe not. But it's not like these players are playing with the recruits that go to the Ohio State and LSU's of the world. A five star recruit who is the second coming of Jerry Rice isn't going to go to a Fresno State or San Jose State. Often times, these players at smaller schools have to carry the burden for their entire team and lead them to victory. And this year, Carr has had to do that more than once.
Unlike the stout Alabama defense, Fresno State's defense has been like swiss cheese this year. They have given up a staggering amount of points, forcing Fresno to often times get into high scoring contests. Bad for looking good to BCS voters, good for looking good to Heisman voters. They've now had two games go to overtime, including their first game against Rutgers where their defense surrendered 51 points. Since September 21st, Alabama's defense has surrendered a combined total of 50 points. Fresno has also had a one point victory over Boise State, and a five point victory over Hawaii.
Carr has been sensational in all of those games, saving Fresno's BCS chances. Fresno's Carr led offense has scored at least 35 points in every game this season. His passing numbers are even more impressive when you consider that Fresno has only played 10 games this year due to a postponed game in Colorado back in September, whereas most teams have played 11 games by this point. While Carr probably has the longest shot out of these three players to get invited as a Heisman finalist, I think it's criminal that he is hardly even getting mentioned in the discussion.
Jordan Lynch, QB, Northern Illinois University
Lynch and Carr pretty much have the same narrative going. Great player, great numbers, small school, under appreciated skills. Unlike Carr and McCarron who make a name for themselves throwing the ball, Lynch also has outstanding running ability. He currently ranks 7th in total rushing yards with 1,434, the highest ranking of any quarterback in the nation. While his passing numbers aren't as outstanding, he has been efficient, tossing a 21:5 TD to interception ratio and ranking 25th in passer rating. Similar to Carr, his defense has put him in some close calls this year, but he's been able to pull them out of every one as NIU is undefeated and currently ranked one spot below Fresno in the BCS standings.
The difference between Carr and Lynch however, is twofold. The first difference is that Lynch has been able to build off of momentum from last year. People at least sort of, kind of knew who he was with NIU's appearance in the Orange Bowl. Was it the stuff of legends? No, but it was national exposure in a BCS game. Now that Lynch is following up last season with another outstanding season, people are starting to realize this guy isn't a fluke. Carr unfortunately didn't have that momentum coming into this year, so he's been fighting an uphill battle since late August. The problem is I don't think he'll have turned enough heads by the time the Heisman voting comes around.
The second difference is that the Huskies have played two teams (Iowa, Purdue) from major conferences, whereas Fresno State did not get that chance. This allows us and voters to be able to compare players on different teams against a mutual opponent. Purdue has been abysmal this year, so I'll disregard them, but Iowa was a respectable opponent, particularly their defense. They currently are 7-4 and rank 13th in points against. They played NIU in Kinnick Stadium the first game of the year. Lynch was able to account for 331 of NIU's 438 total yards and passed for every one of NIU's scores as they won on a last second field goal.
By comparison, Iowa played Ohio State's Braxton Miller, arguably the Big Ten's Heisman front runner and possibly national Heisman front runner had it not been for injury, in mid-October in the Horseshoe. Miller had a great day as well, accounting for 324 total yards with two TD tosses and no turnovers. So here you have two great QBs, going up against the same defense, both getting wins, but Lynch doing it with a lesser supporting cast. There's no telling if Lynch and the Huskies could do that game in and game out in the Big Ten, but putting up better numbers than a QB in the Big Ten against the same team has to count for something right?
Given the recent on the field struggles of Bridgewater, Manziel, and Mariota, and Winston's off the field issues, it would be a travesty if Lynch isn't at least invited. Barring a disaster against Western Michigan this Tuesday, Lynch will have put up ridiculous numbers two years in a row. If NIU gets invited to another BCS bowl, that just makes his argument even stronger. Some people are already writing him off saying he won't get invited, but the way things are going, how can you not? If McCarron, Carr, and Lynch aren't at least in the discussion for the Heisman Trophy, then something is seriously wrong with the system that determines who the best player in college football is.
Matty O
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Fantasy Football: Halfway Mark
We're halfway to the fantasy playoffs, where does your team stand? Undefeated? Winless? Happy? Frustrated? Fear not, for although we're halfway there (most leagues have playoffs that start in Week 14 or Week 15 with the Championship matchup Week 16), you still have time to catch up. With a few well placed trades and timely pick ups, you might be able to sneak into the playoffs yet if you're at the bottom. For those at the top, don't get too comfortable. Every team is one injury, coaching change, or schedule alignment away from going on a losing streak. Here now is a review of the season thus far and things to watch for going forward.
Injuries
The ultimate equalizer. Take Jay Cutler this week for example. Having put up three solid outings in a row heading into Sunday, Cutler would have probably put up fairly decent numbers. Although he already threw one interception, he was injured early in the second quarter in a game that was, and became, a shootout. The Bears only led two times during that game, as Josh McCown threw the ball 20 times in Cutler's relief. In both of my leagues, it could be argued that had Cutler played the whole game, those teams that owned him would have won.
The problem is that, unless it's a player like Darren McFadden or DeMarco Murray, it is nearly impossible to predict an injury. Who would have guessed that Cutler, Arian Foster, Jermichael Finley, Sam Bradford, Doug Martin, Nick Foles, and others would have gotten injured this past weekend? I sure didn't. This is why depth for your team going forward is so important. Come playoff time, if you don't have a solid player at every position, chances are you're going to lose. Injuries are hard to predict, but being prepared for those injuries is not.
Injuries, Part Deux
While players getting injured is bad news, players coming back from injury is great news! Percy Harvin, Mario Manningham, Andre Brown, Nate Burleson, Michael Crabtree, Shane Vereen, and Dennis Pitta are just a few marquee names that are coming back from injury. When assessing whether to stash a player and use up a roster spot, there are two things to keep in mind. First off, when are they coming back? Harvin reportedly could be back for the Monday night game this week, and Brown should be back in Week 9 after the Giants' bye, so those two should be owned in all leagues. The other players have less clear timetables. Teams toss around weeks when a player is expected back, but no one really knows for sure. Just look at the Gronk debacle at the start of this year. With the other players, I would say track their progress unless you have a spot you can spare, but since bye weeks are still not over, it's unlikely that you do.
The second thing to keep in mind is how effective will this player be? Take Michael Crabtree for example. He will be coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon. Not the easiest thing to come back from. Once the injury itself has healed, then he has to get back into game shape. Then he has to get back into the flow of the game (thankfully he played with Kaepernick last year). Then, in the playoffs, he'll likely have to face Richard Sherman of the Seahawks, followed by Darrelle Rivas of the Bucs. No thanks. Kaepernick does not look nearly as good as he did last year. While Crabtree's absence probably has something to do with it, it cannot account for all of it. Kaepernick is 24th in the league in passing attempts, despite the 49ers being 11th in points per game. They're a very run heavy team and I don't see Crabtree producing like he did last year. So while he is a big name that is coming back, it's likely that he won't be as effective as last year, and you might waste a roster spot, or lose a matchup if he puts up a dud and he's in your starting lineup.
Strength of Schedule
Strength of schedule can sometimes be the difference between hanging onto a player or trading him away. It might also be the explanation for a player's early, unexpected dominance, or conversely a player's early, unexpected struggles. Take a guy like Chris Johnson for example. The defenses he's had to face so far along with their rank in rush defense have been the Steelers (11th), Texans (27th), Chargers (19th), Jets (5th), Chiefs (22nd), Seahawks (10th), and 49ers (20th). While that might not seem that bad, I will say that the Chiefs and 49ers are much better than their ranking would imply. The Chiefs were gashed in the Thursday night game against the Eagles back in September, but have tightened up since. San Fran was pummeled in all phases of the game in Seattle, then followed it up with another dud against Indy where they were run all over. Apart from that, they've been stout.
Johnson, predictably, ran for his two highest rushing totals against the Texans and Chargers, gaining 96 and 90 yards, respectively. He gained 70 yards against the Steelers, but needed 25 carries to do so, and he has rushed for no more than 39 yards in any of the other four contests. A forward looking owner, however, will see the Titans play the Rams, Jacksonville (twice), Indy (twice), Raiders, Broncos, and Cardinals. Juicy matchups to say the least. There's certainly a chance he still doesn't perform as his yards per carry is at a terrible 3.2, good for 41st in the league. But if you're looking for a reason to hold onto a player, strength of schedule might be it.
They Are Who We Thought They Were...Well, Maybe Not
Before the season starts, everyone thinks they have all the answers. Adrian Peterson will break the rushing record, the Texans will be an elite team, and Jacksonville will be terrible. Well, 1 for 3, baseball Hall of Fame batting average right there. By now though, it is safe to assume that players are who they are. Unfortunately, I watched the Monday Night game last night and there's no way I can believe that Eli Manning will get better later on in the year. I thought that at one point and even tried to trade for him (thankfully that was rejected). He is after all a two time Super Bowl winning quarterback and should have to throw the ball because their defense is so bad. His offensive line though, is just so bad, and his receivers aren't as good as they would have you believe. Yes, he avoided the huge, costly mistake last night, but it's not like the Vikings defense is the '85 Bears.
At this point, barring an injury, most players will give you the production you have come to expect. With that in mind, would it be crazy to bench Tom Brady as your QB this year? No, of course not. Look at his numbers. Even with Gronk back Sunday, he still put up pedestrian numbers. I mentioned in my fantasy football preview of the AFC East that the Pats actually run the ball a lot, despite Brady's reputation as a great QB. Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden both got rushing TDs, while Brady threw for zero and had an interception. He's a big name player, putting up mediocre to awful production. Speaking of which...
Fantasy Football Is A Stats Game, Not A Name Game
Did you know that Denarius Moore, who has already had his bye week, has more fantasy points than the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, and Steve Smith? Fred Jackson and Knowshon Moreno are in the Top 10 for running backs. Sam Bradford is in the top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks. The Chiefs, not the Seahawks, Bears, or 49ers, are the top scoring fantasy defense. Knowing that this is a stats game, and not a name game, will help you when putting players in your starting lineup and making trades. I don't care if the guy is named Mark Sanchez, if he's able to put up consistent fantasy numbers, then I want him in my lineup. Use this knowledge to your advantage if you're trying to sell high or buy low on a player.
Trades on Trades on Trades
Trading is awesome. I've heard of no-trade leagues, and those sound like no-fun leagues to me. Started From The Bottom by Drake should be the official theme song of trading because it allows new life to be breathed into your team. It also just shakes up the league and makes things more interesting down the stretch. I have made 5 trades so far this year, and will probably make more before it's all said and done. My luck this year has actually come in the form of trades I have proposed to other players that have gotten rejected. Players I tried to trade for: Eli Manning, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Reggie Wayne, and David Wilson. Players I have gotten in trades: Vincent Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Calvin Johnson (but then traded him away, sad face), Ray Rice, Andrew Luck, and Stevie Johnson. Players I have given away: Johnson, Kenbrell Thompkins (in both leagues), Cecil Shorts, Daryl Richardson, Tony Gonzalez (after his Monday Night explosion), and Marshawn Lynch.
So as you can see, with any trade, there's some give and take. I made a mistake giving up Johnson and Lynch, but I like all the players I've received. The Johnson trade is a perfect example, however, of trading for need. The trade was Johnson for Rice and we swapped defenses as well, although that's turning out to be a non-factor. Anyways, I had Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson, and Stevie Johnson as my other receivers in a non-PPR league. My running backs, however, were Stevan Ridley (who had not performed well up to that point), Zac Stacy, Ronnie Hillman, and Ben Tate. With that in mind, I felt I could afford to give up an elite receiver for what I thought was, and still think can be, an elite RB. Johnson will probably help the team I traded him to more than Rice will help me, but that's the thing; Rice will still help me. Trades are about improving your team, not about how much you will think it will help the other team. In the end, the question was would Rice and the player I put in to replace Johnson outscore Johnson and one of my other RBs on a weekly basis? I thought the answer was yes, so I pulled the trigger. You might win some, you'll definitely lose some, but trades are one of the more exciting aspects of fantasy football.
Also, be sure to know when your league's trade deadline is, if you have one. Most deadlines are early to mid-November.
Follow The Future, Don't Follow The Points
This is just to remind you that just because a player put up a monster game last week out of nowhere, doesn't mean you should scramble to pick him up. Obviously a guy like Julius Thomas is an exception to the rule, but most of the time when a player out of nowhere puts up a good game, that will be their best game of the year. So if you pick him up, chances are, he'll never be as good on your team as he was off of it. For instance, Joseph Fauria tight end for the Lions, was a popular add this past week due to his three touchdown performance the week prior. The problem was no one had him on their team that week, he only had three catches, he had already put up three zeroes earlier in the year, and he predictably put up one catch for 15 yards this past Sunday when people were probably actually playing him. I will say it right now that Fauria will not have another game like that the rest of the year, and might not even put up three more TDs the rest of the way. A better option would have been a guy like Jordan Reed or Timothy Wright who were getting targets and, while maybe not putting up a monster day like Fauria, would give you consistent chances to make an impact. The hype train builds up on some of these players fast. Just don't be the one driving the train when it crashes.
Players That Will Do Better The Second Half of the Season
Chris Johnson, everyone on Pittsburgh, Josh Freeman, Zach Ertz, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, Cordarrelle Patterson, Miles Austin, Adrian Peterson (scary, I know), Rashard Mendenhall, Trent Richardson, RG3, Cam Newton, Daniel Thomas, Jordan Reed, Roddy White
Players That Will Do Worse The Second Half of the Season
Phillip Rivers, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, Bilal Powell, Alfred Morris, Panthers D/ST, Tony Gonzalez, Charles Clay, DeSean Jackson, Wes Welker, Alshon Jeffery
Players In The Top 5 Of Their Position That Will Do Even Better
Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, AJ Green, Jordan Cameron, Vernon Davis, Seattle D/ST, 49ers D/ST
Matty O
Injuries
The ultimate equalizer. Take Jay Cutler this week for example. Having put up three solid outings in a row heading into Sunday, Cutler would have probably put up fairly decent numbers. Although he already threw one interception, he was injured early in the second quarter in a game that was, and became, a shootout. The Bears only led two times during that game, as Josh McCown threw the ball 20 times in Cutler's relief. In both of my leagues, it could be argued that had Cutler played the whole game, those teams that owned him would have won.
The problem is that, unless it's a player like Darren McFadden or DeMarco Murray, it is nearly impossible to predict an injury. Who would have guessed that Cutler, Arian Foster, Jermichael Finley, Sam Bradford, Doug Martin, Nick Foles, and others would have gotten injured this past weekend? I sure didn't. This is why depth for your team going forward is so important. Come playoff time, if you don't have a solid player at every position, chances are you're going to lose. Injuries are hard to predict, but being prepared for those injuries is not.
Injuries, Part Deux
While players getting injured is bad news, players coming back from injury is great news! Percy Harvin, Mario Manningham, Andre Brown, Nate Burleson, Michael Crabtree, Shane Vereen, and Dennis Pitta are just a few marquee names that are coming back from injury. When assessing whether to stash a player and use up a roster spot, there are two things to keep in mind. First off, when are they coming back? Harvin reportedly could be back for the Monday night game this week, and Brown should be back in Week 9 after the Giants' bye, so those two should be owned in all leagues. The other players have less clear timetables. Teams toss around weeks when a player is expected back, but no one really knows for sure. Just look at the Gronk debacle at the start of this year. With the other players, I would say track their progress unless you have a spot you can spare, but since bye weeks are still not over, it's unlikely that you do.
The second thing to keep in mind is how effective will this player be? Take Michael Crabtree for example. He will be coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon. Not the easiest thing to come back from. Once the injury itself has healed, then he has to get back into game shape. Then he has to get back into the flow of the game (thankfully he played with Kaepernick last year). Then, in the playoffs, he'll likely have to face Richard Sherman of the Seahawks, followed by Darrelle Rivas of the Bucs. No thanks. Kaepernick does not look nearly as good as he did last year. While Crabtree's absence probably has something to do with it, it cannot account for all of it. Kaepernick is 24th in the league in passing attempts, despite the 49ers being 11th in points per game. They're a very run heavy team and I don't see Crabtree producing like he did last year. So while he is a big name that is coming back, it's likely that he won't be as effective as last year, and you might waste a roster spot, or lose a matchup if he puts up a dud and he's in your starting lineup.
Strength of Schedule
Strength of schedule can sometimes be the difference between hanging onto a player or trading him away. It might also be the explanation for a player's early, unexpected dominance, or conversely a player's early, unexpected struggles. Take a guy like Chris Johnson for example. The defenses he's had to face so far along with their rank in rush defense have been the Steelers (11th), Texans (27th), Chargers (19th), Jets (5th), Chiefs (22nd), Seahawks (10th), and 49ers (20th). While that might not seem that bad, I will say that the Chiefs and 49ers are much better than their ranking would imply. The Chiefs were gashed in the Thursday night game against the Eagles back in September, but have tightened up since. San Fran was pummeled in all phases of the game in Seattle, then followed it up with another dud against Indy where they were run all over. Apart from that, they've been stout.
Johnson, predictably, ran for his two highest rushing totals against the Texans and Chargers, gaining 96 and 90 yards, respectively. He gained 70 yards against the Steelers, but needed 25 carries to do so, and he has rushed for no more than 39 yards in any of the other four contests. A forward looking owner, however, will see the Titans play the Rams, Jacksonville (twice), Indy (twice), Raiders, Broncos, and Cardinals. Juicy matchups to say the least. There's certainly a chance he still doesn't perform as his yards per carry is at a terrible 3.2, good for 41st in the league. But if you're looking for a reason to hold onto a player, strength of schedule might be it.
They Are Who We Thought They Were...Well, Maybe Not
Before the season starts, everyone thinks they have all the answers. Adrian Peterson will break the rushing record, the Texans will be an elite team, and Jacksonville will be terrible. Well, 1 for 3, baseball Hall of Fame batting average right there. By now though, it is safe to assume that players are who they are. Unfortunately, I watched the Monday Night game last night and there's no way I can believe that Eli Manning will get better later on in the year. I thought that at one point and even tried to trade for him (thankfully that was rejected). He is after all a two time Super Bowl winning quarterback and should have to throw the ball because their defense is so bad. His offensive line though, is just so bad, and his receivers aren't as good as they would have you believe. Yes, he avoided the huge, costly mistake last night, but it's not like the Vikings defense is the '85 Bears.
At this point, barring an injury, most players will give you the production you have come to expect. With that in mind, would it be crazy to bench Tom Brady as your QB this year? No, of course not. Look at his numbers. Even with Gronk back Sunday, he still put up pedestrian numbers. I mentioned in my fantasy football preview of the AFC East that the Pats actually run the ball a lot, despite Brady's reputation as a great QB. Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden both got rushing TDs, while Brady threw for zero and had an interception. He's a big name player, putting up mediocre to awful production. Speaking of which...
Fantasy Football Is A Stats Game, Not A Name Game
Did you know that Denarius Moore, who has already had his bye week, has more fantasy points than the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, and Steve Smith? Fred Jackson and Knowshon Moreno are in the Top 10 for running backs. Sam Bradford is in the top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks. The Chiefs, not the Seahawks, Bears, or 49ers, are the top scoring fantasy defense. Knowing that this is a stats game, and not a name game, will help you when putting players in your starting lineup and making trades. I don't care if the guy is named Mark Sanchez, if he's able to put up consistent fantasy numbers, then I want him in my lineup. Use this knowledge to your advantage if you're trying to sell high or buy low on a player.
Trades on Trades on Trades
Trading is awesome. I've heard of no-trade leagues, and those sound like no-fun leagues to me. Started From The Bottom by Drake should be the official theme song of trading because it allows new life to be breathed into your team. It also just shakes up the league and makes things more interesting down the stretch. I have made 5 trades so far this year, and will probably make more before it's all said and done. My luck this year has actually come in the form of trades I have proposed to other players that have gotten rejected. Players I tried to trade for: Eli Manning, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Reggie Wayne, and David Wilson. Players I have gotten in trades: Vincent Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Calvin Johnson (but then traded him away, sad face), Ray Rice, Andrew Luck, and Stevie Johnson. Players I have given away: Johnson, Kenbrell Thompkins (in both leagues), Cecil Shorts, Daryl Richardson, Tony Gonzalez (after his Monday Night explosion), and Marshawn Lynch.
So as you can see, with any trade, there's some give and take. I made a mistake giving up Johnson and Lynch, but I like all the players I've received. The Johnson trade is a perfect example, however, of trading for need. The trade was Johnson for Rice and we swapped defenses as well, although that's turning out to be a non-factor. Anyways, I had Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson, and Stevie Johnson as my other receivers in a non-PPR league. My running backs, however, were Stevan Ridley (who had not performed well up to that point), Zac Stacy, Ronnie Hillman, and Ben Tate. With that in mind, I felt I could afford to give up an elite receiver for what I thought was, and still think can be, an elite RB. Johnson will probably help the team I traded him to more than Rice will help me, but that's the thing; Rice will still help me. Trades are about improving your team, not about how much you will think it will help the other team. In the end, the question was would Rice and the player I put in to replace Johnson outscore Johnson and one of my other RBs on a weekly basis? I thought the answer was yes, so I pulled the trigger. You might win some, you'll definitely lose some, but trades are one of the more exciting aspects of fantasy football.
Also, be sure to know when your league's trade deadline is, if you have one. Most deadlines are early to mid-November.
Follow The Future, Don't Follow The Points
This is just to remind you that just because a player put up a monster game last week out of nowhere, doesn't mean you should scramble to pick him up. Obviously a guy like Julius Thomas is an exception to the rule, but most of the time when a player out of nowhere puts up a good game, that will be their best game of the year. So if you pick him up, chances are, he'll never be as good on your team as he was off of it. For instance, Joseph Fauria tight end for the Lions, was a popular add this past week due to his three touchdown performance the week prior. The problem was no one had him on their team that week, he only had three catches, he had already put up three zeroes earlier in the year, and he predictably put up one catch for 15 yards this past Sunday when people were probably actually playing him. I will say it right now that Fauria will not have another game like that the rest of the year, and might not even put up three more TDs the rest of the way. A better option would have been a guy like Jordan Reed or Timothy Wright who were getting targets and, while maybe not putting up a monster day like Fauria, would give you consistent chances to make an impact. The hype train builds up on some of these players fast. Just don't be the one driving the train when it crashes.
Players That Will Do Better The Second Half of the Season
Chris Johnson, everyone on Pittsburgh, Josh Freeman, Zach Ertz, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, Cordarrelle Patterson, Miles Austin, Adrian Peterson (scary, I know), Rashard Mendenhall, Trent Richardson, RG3, Cam Newton, Daniel Thomas, Jordan Reed, Roddy White
Players That Will Do Worse The Second Half of the Season
Phillip Rivers, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, Bilal Powell, Alfred Morris, Panthers D/ST, Tony Gonzalez, Charles Clay, DeSean Jackson, Wes Welker, Alshon Jeffery
Players In The Top 5 Of Their Position That Will Do Even Better
Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, AJ Green, Jordan Cameron, Vernon Davis, Seattle D/ST, 49ers D/ST
Matty O
Thursday, September 19, 2013
Trent Richardson Trade In Depth
If you haven't heard the news yet, then I would like to inform you that Trent Richardson of the Cleveland Browns has been traded to the Indianapolis Colts for a first round draft pick. Richardson, the number three overall pick in 2012 from Alabama, rushed for 950 yards and 11 TDs his rookie year in 15 games. It's not so much the trade that surprised me, but just that there were no rumblings about this going on before the trade was made. Usually you'll hear about guys who are on the block or teams that are looking for help, but this one threw me off guard. Yes the Colts just lost Vick Ballard for the year, but wasn't he supposed to be the number two back anyways behind Ahmad Bradshaw? The timing was also strange as we are just two games into the NFL season. I've already seen reactions supporting and lamenting this trade, so I will take a look from both sides and dig deeper into this trade.
Indianapolis Colts
If I'm the Colts, as of right now, I am ecstatic about this trade. You give up a first round pick next year which, given how well the Colts are projected to do this year, would have been somewhere in the range of the mid to late 20s, for the third overall draft pick from two drafts ago. Yes, please! The Colts now have a franchise QB (Andrew Luck), a veteran play maker at WR (Reggie Wayne), and a quality RB (Richardson). Even though they have all these weapons on offense, I still think they need to shore up their defense before thinking Super Bowl, but getting Richardson for their first rounder is a steal in my opinion.
The only thing that confuses me a bit about this deal is, as I mentioned before, the fact that they brought in Ahmad Bradshaw in the offseason to be the featured back. Obviously Bradshaw does not have the best of all injury histories, but if they wanted to, they could have held onto their pick next year and picked up a veteran free agent to fill the void left by Vick Ballard. Clearly though, the Colts feel they are set for the future and are willing to bypass said draft pick next year.
Cleveland Browns
From the Colts perspective, it was a pretty simple deal. From the Browns perspective, there's a whole lot of stuff to analyze. Let's start with the current state of their team. Now that Richardson is gone, that leaves Chris Ogbonnaya and Bobby Rainey as the two RBs on the roster. As of this writing Willis McGahee is not on the roster, though there are many rumors suggesting he will be. Regardless, a significant downgrade at that position. With starting QB Bradon Weeden now out as well, it looks like the Browns are chasing after the number one overall pick next year.
Another stat that it looks like they could be chasing is the dreaded 0-16. They still have to face teams like the Patriots, Packers, and Bears. The only games left on their slate that I could see them winning would be Week 13 vs Jacksonville (which could decide who gets the number one overall pick), and Week 16 at the Jets. The Jets game is a bit of a reach given how good the Jets defense is and how awful the Browns offense is now, but you never know. Just trying to give them some hope. They've pretty much given up on 2013 and are looking towards the future. The question is, by giving up Richardson, did they truly make the best choice for the future of this franchise? Let's investigate.
Although the Browns won't outright say it, this trade makes it clear that they do not trust Brandon Weeden and are looking to obtain a high draft pick to select a QB in the 2014 draft. Some of the more talked about QB names are Teddy Bridgewater, Tahj Boyd, and Johnny Manziel. So what they are banking on is that they can find a RB later in the draft to replace Richardson (No. 3 overall), but they need this top pick to get a quality QB. Well Cleveland, I ran some numbers for you and here's what I found:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ahl64bit0mEodHdQT0hRNVEzX01JQm91MjVPbjJvTkE&output=html
There you will find all 32 teams with their starting QB and RB and the pick that they were selected at. I also made columns for if I felt they were an established starter or not. I didn't really set exact parameters so you may disagree with some of the choices, but for the most part, I feel it is accurate (also, those a's in the column were supposed to be check marks, but didn't transfer correctly from Excel to Google Spreadsheet). Also, some teams currently do not have a clear cut RB starter (Saints, Steelers) so I just went with what their team website depth chart said. So what does this data tell us?
Well, on the surface, it would appear that the Browns made the right move. Romo and Pryor were the only QBs not selected in the actual NFL draft (remember Pryor had to be selected in the supplemental draft due to an NCAA investigation), while four running backs went undrafted. The average pick for a starting QB in the NFL is about 37, or the beginning of the second round, whereas the average pick for a starting RB in the NFL is about 83, or the middle of the third round. This implies that you have to get your QB early, but you can find a RB late. Digging deeper, however, reveals this discrepancy to not be so large.
The Browns are clearly looking for a QB they can ride for the future and to postseason success, not just one to have around. If you calculate the average pick of QBs that I feel are established starters in the league, the number stays about the same at 36.86. If I do the same thing for RBs, however, the difference between QBs and RBs becomes much smaller as the average pick of RBs that I feel are established starters in the league goes down to 62. This would sneak them into the second round along with the QBs. Now, I realize there are tons of other factors involved and, again, the established starters metric is subjective, but this tells me that your chances of getting a quality RB early in the draft is about the same as getting a quality QB in the draft.
Now, let's take a look at Cleveland's draft history. The hype that is building in Cleveland is that now for the 2014 draft, they will have two first round picks and seven in the first four rounds. That's nice, if you know what to do with them. Let's go year by year and see how the Browns have done recently in the first four rounds. I'll start with 2007 to give them the benefit of the doubt because they selected Joe Thomas in the first round, one of the best offensive linemen in the game right now. Also drafted that year, however, was Brady Quinn (22) and Eric Wright (53), neither of which are still on the team.
The Browns had zero picks in 2008 in the first three rounds and used their two fourth rounders on Beau Bell (104) and Martin Rucker (111). They had a grand total of one start for the Browns between them. 2009 brought more picks, but the same disappointing results. Alex Mack (21) worked out, but Brian Robiskie (36), Mohamed Massaquoi (50), David Veikune (52), and Kaluka Maiava (104) are no longer on the team. 2010 brought in Joe Haden (7), but also Montario Hardesty (59) and Colt McCoy (85). 2011 may have been their best draft selecting Phil Taylor (21), Greg Little (59), and Jordan Cameron (102) who is turning out to be an elite TE in this league. Then 2012 came and Richardson (3) and Weeden (22) were united to supposedly be the future for the Browns. Well, Richardson is now off the team and it looks like Weeden is about to be replaced in the next year or two. So should there really be all this hype in Cleveland about how these draft picks will translate to the future?
Personally, I think it was a mistake to get rid of Richardson. I think he'll be a solid player in this league for years to come. Is Weeden old? Yep. Does he need to be replaced? Probably. But I still think you have about as good odds of finding a quality QB late in the draft as you do of finding a quality RB late. With Richardson, you know that you have a quality player. Can we be certain that Teddy Bridgewater will be the next great QB? I'm sure Mel Kiper will tell you so, but we can't be 100% certain until we see him at the NFL level. We've seen Richardson excel at this level on a bad team. I understand needing to rebuild, but giving up a second year RB for the possibility of drafting a QB who might be good is risky to say the least.
Maybe I'm underestimating the Browns' ability to draft. Maybe they know something about Richardson that I don't know. Perhaps he was bad for team chemistry or had private off the field issues. All I know is he was a quality back in a day and age where good RBs seem to be a dying breed. I just think that rebuilding around Richardson would have been better than rebuilding around whoever they draft next year.
Matty O
Indianapolis Colts
If I'm the Colts, as of right now, I am ecstatic about this trade. You give up a first round pick next year which, given how well the Colts are projected to do this year, would have been somewhere in the range of the mid to late 20s, for the third overall draft pick from two drafts ago. Yes, please! The Colts now have a franchise QB (Andrew Luck), a veteran play maker at WR (Reggie Wayne), and a quality RB (Richardson). Even though they have all these weapons on offense, I still think they need to shore up their defense before thinking Super Bowl, but getting Richardson for their first rounder is a steal in my opinion.
The only thing that confuses me a bit about this deal is, as I mentioned before, the fact that they brought in Ahmad Bradshaw in the offseason to be the featured back. Obviously Bradshaw does not have the best of all injury histories, but if they wanted to, they could have held onto their pick next year and picked up a veteran free agent to fill the void left by Vick Ballard. Clearly though, the Colts feel they are set for the future and are willing to bypass said draft pick next year.
Cleveland Browns
From the Colts perspective, it was a pretty simple deal. From the Browns perspective, there's a whole lot of stuff to analyze. Let's start with the current state of their team. Now that Richardson is gone, that leaves Chris Ogbonnaya and Bobby Rainey as the two RBs on the roster. As of this writing Willis McGahee is not on the roster, though there are many rumors suggesting he will be. Regardless, a significant downgrade at that position. With starting QB Bradon Weeden now out as well, it looks like the Browns are chasing after the number one overall pick next year.
Another stat that it looks like they could be chasing is the dreaded 0-16. They still have to face teams like the Patriots, Packers, and Bears. The only games left on their slate that I could see them winning would be Week 13 vs Jacksonville (which could decide who gets the number one overall pick), and Week 16 at the Jets. The Jets game is a bit of a reach given how good the Jets defense is and how awful the Browns offense is now, but you never know. Just trying to give them some hope. They've pretty much given up on 2013 and are looking towards the future. The question is, by giving up Richardson, did they truly make the best choice for the future of this franchise? Let's investigate.
Although the Browns won't outright say it, this trade makes it clear that they do not trust Brandon Weeden and are looking to obtain a high draft pick to select a QB in the 2014 draft. Some of the more talked about QB names are Teddy Bridgewater, Tahj Boyd, and Johnny Manziel. So what they are banking on is that they can find a RB later in the draft to replace Richardson (No. 3 overall), but they need this top pick to get a quality QB. Well Cleveland, I ran some numbers for you and here's what I found:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ahl64bit0mEodHdQT0hRNVEzX01JQm91MjVPbjJvTkE&output=html
There you will find all 32 teams with their starting QB and RB and the pick that they were selected at. I also made columns for if I felt they were an established starter or not. I didn't really set exact parameters so you may disagree with some of the choices, but for the most part, I feel it is accurate (also, those a's in the column were supposed to be check marks, but didn't transfer correctly from Excel to Google Spreadsheet). Also, some teams currently do not have a clear cut RB starter (Saints, Steelers) so I just went with what their team website depth chart said. So what does this data tell us?
Well, on the surface, it would appear that the Browns made the right move. Romo and Pryor were the only QBs not selected in the actual NFL draft (remember Pryor had to be selected in the supplemental draft due to an NCAA investigation), while four running backs went undrafted. The average pick for a starting QB in the NFL is about 37, or the beginning of the second round, whereas the average pick for a starting RB in the NFL is about 83, or the middle of the third round. This implies that you have to get your QB early, but you can find a RB late. Digging deeper, however, reveals this discrepancy to not be so large.
The Browns are clearly looking for a QB they can ride for the future and to postseason success, not just one to have around. If you calculate the average pick of QBs that I feel are established starters in the league, the number stays about the same at 36.86. If I do the same thing for RBs, however, the difference between QBs and RBs becomes much smaller as the average pick of RBs that I feel are established starters in the league goes down to 62. This would sneak them into the second round along with the QBs. Now, I realize there are tons of other factors involved and, again, the established starters metric is subjective, but this tells me that your chances of getting a quality RB early in the draft is about the same as getting a quality QB in the draft.
Now, let's take a look at Cleveland's draft history. The hype that is building in Cleveland is that now for the 2014 draft, they will have two first round picks and seven in the first four rounds. That's nice, if you know what to do with them. Let's go year by year and see how the Browns have done recently in the first four rounds. I'll start with 2007 to give them the benefit of the doubt because they selected Joe Thomas in the first round, one of the best offensive linemen in the game right now. Also drafted that year, however, was Brady Quinn (22) and Eric Wright (53), neither of which are still on the team.
The Browns had zero picks in 2008 in the first three rounds and used their two fourth rounders on Beau Bell (104) and Martin Rucker (111). They had a grand total of one start for the Browns between them. 2009 brought more picks, but the same disappointing results. Alex Mack (21) worked out, but Brian Robiskie (36), Mohamed Massaquoi (50), David Veikune (52), and Kaluka Maiava (104) are no longer on the team. 2010 brought in Joe Haden (7), but also Montario Hardesty (59) and Colt McCoy (85). 2011 may have been their best draft selecting Phil Taylor (21), Greg Little (59), and Jordan Cameron (102) who is turning out to be an elite TE in this league. Then 2012 came and Richardson (3) and Weeden (22) were united to supposedly be the future for the Browns. Well, Richardson is now off the team and it looks like Weeden is about to be replaced in the next year or two. So should there really be all this hype in Cleveland about how these draft picks will translate to the future?
Personally, I think it was a mistake to get rid of Richardson. I think he'll be a solid player in this league for years to come. Is Weeden old? Yep. Does he need to be replaced? Probably. But I still think you have about as good odds of finding a quality QB late in the draft as you do of finding a quality RB late. With Richardson, you know that you have a quality player. Can we be certain that Teddy Bridgewater will be the next great QB? I'm sure Mel Kiper will tell you so, but we can't be 100% certain until we see him at the NFL level. We've seen Richardson excel at this level on a bad team. I understand needing to rebuild, but giving up a second year RB for the possibility of drafting a QB who might be good is risky to say the least.
Maybe I'm underestimating the Browns' ability to draft. Maybe they know something about Richardson that I don't know. Perhaps he was bad for team chemistry or had private off the field issues. All I know is he was a quality back in a day and age where good RBs seem to be a dying breed. I just think that rebuilding around Richardson would have been better than rebuilding around whoever they draft next year.
Matty O
Friday, August 23, 2013
Fantasy Draft Strategy
This post will go through everything you need to know to have the most successful draft possible. Even though you can trade and acquire players off the waiver wire in season, the draft is usually what determines how well you will do in fantasy that year. Save for a lopsided trade or an Alfred Morris type who explodes off the waiver wire, most people will have to ride it out with their draft day players whether they want to or not. Here are some helpful strategies to make your roster the envy of your league mates.
League Types (The most common I have seen)
Standard - This is just your standard league with default settings. Great for beginners or people who just want to jump right in without worrying about how changing points or lineups will affect the league. Most of the articles you see that contains fantasy advice are based off of standard leagues.
PPR - PPR, or point per reception, are leagues that award one point for every catch a player makes. This obviously raises the value of wide receivers and pass catching running backs (Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush). At the same time, this decreases the value of quarterbacks and blocking tight ends. PPR was developed because of the over emphasis of having elite running backs in standard leagues. This allows players like Danny Amendola to be elite options.
2 Quarterback - I've personally never been in such a league, but some leagues use two quarterbacks with the reasoning that picking a QB in a 10 or 12 team league is too easy since there are 32 teams in the NFL. These leagues obviously boost the value of QBs and force you to take a QB earlier than you normally would.
Bonus Points - This is my least favorite kind of scoring, but some leagues award bonuses when players reach certain statistical categories or do certain things. For instance, you might get a point bonus for a TD pass of 60+ yards, then a higher bonus for one of 70+ yards, and so on. I think that system is a bit gimmicky, but if you are doing that, then I would target players like Torrey Smith and Chris Givens who may only catch a few balls a game, but one of them is probably going deep.
You Are Creating A Team, Not Picking A Player
This is particularly important to remember in the early rounds. For instance, Calvin Johnson will be very tempting to take in the first round. There's a good chance that if you're picking at the end of the first round that the players available will be something like Johnson, Alfred Morris, and LeSean McCoy. Will Johnson outscore the two backs in overall points at the end of the year? Probably. But given how deep wide receiver is and how shallow running back is, it would make more sense to draft Morris or McCoy. Here's an example.
Team X will have the 9th pick and choose Johnson . Team Y will have the 10th and 11th picks (due to the snake draft format) and they will go with the RB-RB strategy and pick Morris and McCoy. Team X, in need of a RB, could go with Steven Jackson with the 12th pick. At this point, the teams look fairly even, but the problems start at the next picks for these teams. Team X won't get another pick until number 29. At this point, the next three running backs available will be David Wilson, Darren McFadden, and DeMarco Murray. A timeshare, unproven back, and two injury prone players. Team Y, meanwhile already has his two backs. The wide receivers available when he picks will be Andre Johnson, Randall Cobb, and Larry Fitzgerald. I would trust these three receivers over those three running backs any day of the week. This situation will continue for these two teams even further into the draft, causing Team X to reach for players, while Team Y can draft fairly comfortably. Just remember that your 8th round pick can be just as important as your 1st round pick.
If You Ain't First, You Better Be Last
I'm talking here about quarterback and tight end. At the QB position, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are the only two I would even consider taking early. Then, I would load up on RBs and WRs. As mentioned in the above section, if you take a non-RB early, you're just setting yourself up for a bad draft. Brees and Rodgers are good players and will probably finish with the most fantasy points this year, but the point differential between the first and 10th QB in 2012 (78) was not as much as the differential between the first and 10th RB (107). If you have already secured your two starting RBs, then I would consider going after Brees or Rodgers, but if not, hold steady and take a Tony Romo or Matthew Stafford who will finish in the top 10 anyways.
The same goes for tight end where Jimmy Graham should be the only one taken early. PPR obviously changes this as I would also recommend Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez to be taken higher than normal. For standard leagues, however, you can find plenty of guys late. Graham will most likely lead all tight ends in points this year, but with so many upside guys (Jordan Cameron, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett), there's no reason to waste a high pick on a TE early. The one owner that gets Graham will probably outscore your TE most weeks, but you'll probably be competitive with the rest of your league mates because their TEs won't be any good either.
Since there are 32 teams in the league, you can find a quality QB or TE in the 10th round because, well, there are 10 pretty good QBs and TEs out there. Since every owner only needs one, it doesn't make sense to reach for them. It's very possible this year that you could actually draft two QBs late and just rotate them in and out and play the matchups. Any QB can go off with a good matchup, and there are certainly more than 10 decent QBs in the NFL. A rotational system might work this year, allowing you to load up on your other positions.
Risky vs Safe
There will come a point in the draft where someone is staring Darren McFadden in the face. The knock on McFadden is he is injury prone, plays behind a horrendous offensive line, and will probably see stacked boxes since his QB play is so bad. But every time he is up to be drafted, there's that one owner that says to himself, "Alright, this is the year he stays healthy and plays like the pro he was supposed to be." He is drafted, he is injured in Week 6, and the owner scrambles to find a decent replacement. This is really a boom or bust strategy when drafting players like these with known risks. If McFadden were to play all 16 games and somehow play up to his skill level, then that owner would probably be in the playoffs, if not in the championship game. If not, however, then the pick is wasted and the mad dash to the waiver wire is on.
The safe owner picks players with a history of being low risk, putting up numbers, but with perhaps a more limited ceiling than a McFadden. An example of a player like that would be Steve Smith, WR for the Panthers. He's not going to win you any matchups by himself and won't wow any of the other owners when you select him on draft day. Still, you know he's going to go for at least 1,000 yards and a few scores as he's proven throughout his career. He's performed well with different QBs, and particularly well with current QB Cam Newton. His upside is certainly lower than a McFadden, but you're pretty much guaranteed that he will put up solid numbers and will be available all year.
Neither strategy is particularly "right," it just depends on if you want to roll the dice or not. I'm also not saying that the safe way guarantees that you won't have a team that does poorly, as anything can happen in football. The safe way just decreases the amount of worry that you'll probably have from week to week about your team.
Pass With Your Heart, But Don't Reach With Your Heart
What I mean by this is that you can come into the draft with a bias towards your favorite team and against your rivals, but don't let it cause you to make dumb draft choices. For instance, if you are a Bears fan and Packers WR James Jones is the best available player on the board, then by all means pass him for someone that you know might perform a little less poorly, but is not a Packer. On the other hand, don't go taking Matt Forte with the number one overall pick just because he's your homeboy and you think he's going to do well this year. He probably will do well, but reaching for a guy just because he plays for your favorite team is a bit absurd.
The Same Team Debate
There are differing schools of thought when it comes to drafting players that are on the same team. For instance, would it be smart for me to draft Matt Forte as well as Brandon Marshall even though they're both on the Bears? Well, it depends. For me, I don't like drafting a RB and WR on the same team, but I wouldn't mind a QB and WR or two WRs. The QB-WR combo is especially enticing because you get "double points" every time a pass is completed to that WR. For instance, if you own Jay Cutler and Marshall and they connect for a 25 yard TD, then you would get 1 point for Cutler's 25 passing yards, 2.5 points for Marshall's receiving yards, 4 or 6 (depending on your scoring settings) points for Cutler's passing TD, and 6 points for Marshall's receiving TD. Up to 15.5 points on one play! The downside is that during their bye week or if they have a bad game, then you'll have two positions that will under perform instead of just one.
This strategy obviously works best with the offenses that score the most. For instance, if you had Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White last year, you probably did pretty good even though they are all on the same team. Jones and White take targets away from each other, but when that offense is clicking (and is usually is) both of them can put up more points than a different receiver, who might get the most targets, on another team. This year, I would say this strategy applies to players on the Packers, Saints, Broncos, Patriots, Eagles, and Falcons.
Bye Week Vacation
One strategy I have seen utilized to combat bye weeks in the middle of the year is to draft all of your starters with the same bye week. This way, even though, barring a miracle, you essentially forfeit that week, you are at full strength for the other weeks while your opponents will likely be missing one or multiple starters. It's an interesting strategy to use, but very shortsighted. With all the injuries and depth chart movement that goes on during the year, it is highly likely that one of your starters won't even play all 16 weeks. There's usually also plenty of players to plug in during bye weeks that can have a good week based on their matchup. For instance, last year my QB had his bye in Week 7. I picked up Josh Freeman off of waivers because they were playing the hilariously bad Saints defense. Freeman went for 420 yards, three TDs, and no picks. Trying to get all your starter's bye weeks to match up is near impossible on draft day, so just draft as you normally would.
Handcuff
A handcuff in fantasy football applies to running backs and the strategy of drafting their backup regardless of where he is projected to be taken. Handcuffs will usually start going later in drafts. For example, Arian Foster is the number one guy in Houston. If anything were to happen to him, Ben Tate would be the next guy in line. If you didn't have Tate, you essentially just wasted your first round pick because now you have to find someone on waivers or trade for a serviceable back. If you have Tate, however, then you still have a decent back on a good running offense.
This isn't to say you should always take a handcuff. Handcuffs should really only be taken for players on teams that a) have a good offensive line or b) run the ball a lot. For example, drafting a handcuff to the Packers' starting RB wouldn't make much sense. Their offensive line is average at best and they don't run that often. Would that backup RB put up numbers if he were inserted in the lineup? It would just make more sense to pick a high upside player than a handcuff in that scenario. Taking Michael Bush as a handcuff to Forte, however, would make a lot of sense. Forte has missed some games recently and Bush has shown, in Chicago and Oakland, that he can perform when called upon. The Bears' offensive line is much better run blocking than they are at pass blocking, so it is more than likely that Bush will still put up good numbers if anything were to happen to Forte.
The Last 2 Rounds
The last two rounds should be reserved for defenses and kickers. Your league will more than likely have someone reach for Seattle or San Fran's defense and maybe even for a kicker. Do not be that person. The later rounds is when you should be drafting players with upside that could develop into starters or trade bait. Last year, Arizona, St. Louis, San Diego, Cincinnati, Denver, and New England were all ranked outside of the preseason top 10 last year, but all finished in the top 10 by the end of the year. Defensive staples like the Steelers, Ravens, and Jets however, were projected to be sure thing top 10 defenses and finished 23rd, 14th, and 20th, respectively. There are always multiple defenses that can be taken late that will emerge to be startable.
If you take a kicker prior to the last round, you need to have your head checked. Just wait until the last round and pick one on a good offense.
There it is folks, the last of my fantasy advice I can give you before draft day. I know a lot of drafts will probably be taking place this weekend, with some more taking place next weekend. Drafting well is the first key to a successful fantasy season so just remember a) wait on TE and QB b) RB is shallow and WR is deep c) brains over emotion d) handcuff when necessary e) for the love of God wait until the last round to draft a kicker.
Matty O
League Types (The most common I have seen)
Standard - This is just your standard league with default settings. Great for beginners or people who just want to jump right in without worrying about how changing points or lineups will affect the league. Most of the articles you see that contains fantasy advice are based off of standard leagues.
PPR - PPR, or point per reception, are leagues that award one point for every catch a player makes. This obviously raises the value of wide receivers and pass catching running backs (Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush). At the same time, this decreases the value of quarterbacks and blocking tight ends. PPR was developed because of the over emphasis of having elite running backs in standard leagues. This allows players like Danny Amendola to be elite options.
2 Quarterback - I've personally never been in such a league, but some leagues use two quarterbacks with the reasoning that picking a QB in a 10 or 12 team league is too easy since there are 32 teams in the NFL. These leagues obviously boost the value of QBs and force you to take a QB earlier than you normally would.
Bonus Points - This is my least favorite kind of scoring, but some leagues award bonuses when players reach certain statistical categories or do certain things. For instance, you might get a point bonus for a TD pass of 60+ yards, then a higher bonus for one of 70+ yards, and so on. I think that system is a bit gimmicky, but if you are doing that, then I would target players like Torrey Smith and Chris Givens who may only catch a few balls a game, but one of them is probably going deep.
You Are Creating A Team, Not Picking A Player
This is particularly important to remember in the early rounds. For instance, Calvin Johnson will be very tempting to take in the first round. There's a good chance that if you're picking at the end of the first round that the players available will be something like Johnson, Alfred Morris, and LeSean McCoy. Will Johnson outscore the two backs in overall points at the end of the year? Probably. But given how deep wide receiver is and how shallow running back is, it would make more sense to draft Morris or McCoy. Here's an example.
Team X will have the 9th pick and choose Johnson . Team Y will have the 10th and 11th picks (due to the snake draft format) and they will go with the RB-RB strategy and pick Morris and McCoy. Team X, in need of a RB, could go with Steven Jackson with the 12th pick. At this point, the teams look fairly even, but the problems start at the next picks for these teams. Team X won't get another pick until number 29. At this point, the next three running backs available will be David Wilson, Darren McFadden, and DeMarco Murray. A timeshare, unproven back, and two injury prone players. Team Y, meanwhile already has his two backs. The wide receivers available when he picks will be Andre Johnson, Randall Cobb, and Larry Fitzgerald. I would trust these three receivers over those three running backs any day of the week. This situation will continue for these two teams even further into the draft, causing Team X to reach for players, while Team Y can draft fairly comfortably. Just remember that your 8th round pick can be just as important as your 1st round pick.
If You Ain't First, You Better Be Last
I'm talking here about quarterback and tight end. At the QB position, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are the only two I would even consider taking early. Then, I would load up on RBs and WRs. As mentioned in the above section, if you take a non-RB early, you're just setting yourself up for a bad draft. Brees and Rodgers are good players and will probably finish with the most fantasy points this year, but the point differential between the first and 10th QB in 2012 (78) was not as much as the differential between the first and 10th RB (107). If you have already secured your two starting RBs, then I would consider going after Brees or Rodgers, but if not, hold steady and take a Tony Romo or Matthew Stafford who will finish in the top 10 anyways.
The same goes for tight end where Jimmy Graham should be the only one taken early. PPR obviously changes this as I would also recommend Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez to be taken higher than normal. For standard leagues, however, you can find plenty of guys late. Graham will most likely lead all tight ends in points this year, but with so many upside guys (Jordan Cameron, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett), there's no reason to waste a high pick on a TE early. The one owner that gets Graham will probably outscore your TE most weeks, but you'll probably be competitive with the rest of your league mates because their TEs won't be any good either.
Since there are 32 teams in the league, you can find a quality QB or TE in the 10th round because, well, there are 10 pretty good QBs and TEs out there. Since every owner only needs one, it doesn't make sense to reach for them. It's very possible this year that you could actually draft two QBs late and just rotate them in and out and play the matchups. Any QB can go off with a good matchup, and there are certainly more than 10 decent QBs in the NFL. A rotational system might work this year, allowing you to load up on your other positions.
Risky vs Safe
There will come a point in the draft where someone is staring Darren McFadden in the face. The knock on McFadden is he is injury prone, plays behind a horrendous offensive line, and will probably see stacked boxes since his QB play is so bad. But every time he is up to be drafted, there's that one owner that says to himself, "Alright, this is the year he stays healthy and plays like the pro he was supposed to be." He is drafted, he is injured in Week 6, and the owner scrambles to find a decent replacement. This is really a boom or bust strategy when drafting players like these with known risks. If McFadden were to play all 16 games and somehow play up to his skill level, then that owner would probably be in the playoffs, if not in the championship game. If not, however, then the pick is wasted and the mad dash to the waiver wire is on.
The safe owner picks players with a history of being low risk, putting up numbers, but with perhaps a more limited ceiling than a McFadden. An example of a player like that would be Steve Smith, WR for the Panthers. He's not going to win you any matchups by himself and won't wow any of the other owners when you select him on draft day. Still, you know he's going to go for at least 1,000 yards and a few scores as he's proven throughout his career. He's performed well with different QBs, and particularly well with current QB Cam Newton. His upside is certainly lower than a McFadden, but you're pretty much guaranteed that he will put up solid numbers and will be available all year.
Neither strategy is particularly "right," it just depends on if you want to roll the dice or not. I'm also not saying that the safe way guarantees that you won't have a team that does poorly, as anything can happen in football. The safe way just decreases the amount of worry that you'll probably have from week to week about your team.
Pass With Your Heart, But Don't Reach With Your Heart
What I mean by this is that you can come into the draft with a bias towards your favorite team and against your rivals, but don't let it cause you to make dumb draft choices. For instance, if you are a Bears fan and Packers WR James Jones is the best available player on the board, then by all means pass him for someone that you know might perform a little less poorly, but is not a Packer. On the other hand, don't go taking Matt Forte with the number one overall pick just because he's your homeboy and you think he's going to do well this year. He probably will do well, but reaching for a guy just because he plays for your favorite team is a bit absurd.
The Same Team Debate
There are differing schools of thought when it comes to drafting players that are on the same team. For instance, would it be smart for me to draft Matt Forte as well as Brandon Marshall even though they're both on the Bears? Well, it depends. For me, I don't like drafting a RB and WR on the same team, but I wouldn't mind a QB and WR or two WRs. The QB-WR combo is especially enticing because you get "double points" every time a pass is completed to that WR. For instance, if you own Jay Cutler and Marshall and they connect for a 25 yard TD, then you would get 1 point for Cutler's 25 passing yards, 2.5 points for Marshall's receiving yards, 4 or 6 (depending on your scoring settings) points for Cutler's passing TD, and 6 points for Marshall's receiving TD. Up to 15.5 points on one play! The downside is that during their bye week or if they have a bad game, then you'll have two positions that will under perform instead of just one.
This strategy obviously works best with the offenses that score the most. For instance, if you had Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White last year, you probably did pretty good even though they are all on the same team. Jones and White take targets away from each other, but when that offense is clicking (and is usually is) both of them can put up more points than a different receiver, who might get the most targets, on another team. This year, I would say this strategy applies to players on the Packers, Saints, Broncos, Patriots, Eagles, and Falcons.
Bye Week Vacation
One strategy I have seen utilized to combat bye weeks in the middle of the year is to draft all of your starters with the same bye week. This way, even though, barring a miracle, you essentially forfeit that week, you are at full strength for the other weeks while your opponents will likely be missing one or multiple starters. It's an interesting strategy to use, but very shortsighted. With all the injuries and depth chart movement that goes on during the year, it is highly likely that one of your starters won't even play all 16 weeks. There's usually also plenty of players to plug in during bye weeks that can have a good week based on their matchup. For instance, last year my QB had his bye in Week 7. I picked up Josh Freeman off of waivers because they were playing the hilariously bad Saints defense. Freeman went for 420 yards, three TDs, and no picks. Trying to get all your starter's bye weeks to match up is near impossible on draft day, so just draft as you normally would.
Handcuff
A handcuff in fantasy football applies to running backs and the strategy of drafting their backup regardless of where he is projected to be taken. Handcuffs will usually start going later in drafts. For example, Arian Foster is the number one guy in Houston. If anything were to happen to him, Ben Tate would be the next guy in line. If you didn't have Tate, you essentially just wasted your first round pick because now you have to find someone on waivers or trade for a serviceable back. If you have Tate, however, then you still have a decent back on a good running offense.
This isn't to say you should always take a handcuff. Handcuffs should really only be taken for players on teams that a) have a good offensive line or b) run the ball a lot. For example, drafting a handcuff to the Packers' starting RB wouldn't make much sense. Their offensive line is average at best and they don't run that often. Would that backup RB put up numbers if he were inserted in the lineup? It would just make more sense to pick a high upside player than a handcuff in that scenario. Taking Michael Bush as a handcuff to Forte, however, would make a lot of sense. Forte has missed some games recently and Bush has shown, in Chicago and Oakland, that he can perform when called upon. The Bears' offensive line is much better run blocking than they are at pass blocking, so it is more than likely that Bush will still put up good numbers if anything were to happen to Forte.
The Last 2 Rounds
The last two rounds should be reserved for defenses and kickers. Your league will more than likely have someone reach for Seattle or San Fran's defense and maybe even for a kicker. Do not be that person. The later rounds is when you should be drafting players with upside that could develop into starters or trade bait. Last year, Arizona, St. Louis, San Diego, Cincinnati, Denver, and New England were all ranked outside of the preseason top 10 last year, but all finished in the top 10 by the end of the year. Defensive staples like the Steelers, Ravens, and Jets however, were projected to be sure thing top 10 defenses and finished 23rd, 14th, and 20th, respectively. There are always multiple defenses that can be taken late that will emerge to be startable.
If you take a kicker prior to the last round, you need to have your head checked. Just wait until the last round and pick one on a good offense.
There it is folks, the last of my fantasy advice I can give you before draft day. I know a lot of drafts will probably be taking place this weekend, with some more taking place next weekend. Drafting well is the first key to a successful fantasy season so just remember a) wait on TE and QB b) RB is shallow and WR is deep c) brains over emotion d) handcuff when necessary e) for the love of God wait until the last round to draft a kicker.
Matty O
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