This post will go through everything you need to know to have the most successful draft possible. Even though you can trade and acquire players off the waiver wire in season, the draft is usually what determines how well you will do in fantasy that year. Save for a lopsided trade or an Alfred Morris type who explodes off the waiver wire, most people will have to ride it out with their draft day players whether they want to or not. Here are some helpful strategies to make your roster the envy of your league mates.
League Types (The most common I have seen)
Standard - This is just your standard league with default settings. Great for beginners or people who just want to jump right in without worrying about how changing points or lineups will affect the league. Most of the articles you see that contains fantasy advice are based off of standard leagues.
PPR - PPR, or point per reception, are leagues that award one point for every catch a player makes. This obviously raises the value of wide receivers and pass catching running backs (Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush). At the same time, this decreases the value of quarterbacks and blocking tight ends. PPR was developed because of the over emphasis of having elite running backs in standard leagues. This allows players like Danny Amendola to be elite options.
2 Quarterback - I've personally never been in such a league, but some leagues use two quarterbacks with the reasoning that picking a QB in a 10 or 12 team league is too easy since there are 32 teams in the NFL. These leagues obviously boost the value of QBs and force you to take a QB earlier than you normally would.
Bonus Points - This is my least favorite kind of scoring, but some leagues award bonuses when players reach certain statistical categories or do certain things. For instance, you might get a point bonus for a TD pass of 60+ yards, then a higher bonus for one of 70+ yards, and so on. I think that system is a bit gimmicky, but if you are doing that, then I would target players like Torrey Smith and Chris Givens who may only catch a few balls a game, but one of them is probably going deep.
You Are Creating A Team, Not Picking A Player
This is particularly important to remember in the early rounds. For instance, Calvin Johnson will be very tempting to take in the first round. There's a good chance that if you're picking at the end of the first round that the players available will be something like Johnson, Alfred Morris, and LeSean McCoy. Will Johnson outscore the two backs in overall points at the end of the year? Probably. But given how deep wide receiver is and how shallow running back is, it would make more sense to draft Morris or McCoy. Here's an example.
Team X will have the 9th pick and choose Johnson . Team Y will have the 10th and 11th picks (due to the snake draft format) and they will go with the RB-RB strategy and pick Morris and McCoy. Team X, in need of a RB, could go with Steven Jackson with the 12th pick. At this point, the teams look fairly even, but the problems start at the next picks for these teams. Team X won't get another pick until number 29. At this point, the next three running backs available will be David Wilson, Darren McFadden, and DeMarco Murray. A timeshare, unproven back, and two injury prone players. Team Y, meanwhile already has his two backs. The wide receivers available when he picks will be Andre Johnson, Randall Cobb, and Larry Fitzgerald. I would trust these three receivers over those three running backs any day of the week. This situation will continue for these two teams even further into the draft, causing Team X to reach for players, while Team Y can draft fairly comfortably. Just remember that your 8th round pick can be just as important as your 1st round pick.
If You Ain't First, You Better Be Last
I'm talking here about quarterback and tight end. At the QB position, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are the only two I would even consider taking early. Then, I would load up on RBs and WRs. As mentioned in the above section, if you take a non-RB early, you're just setting yourself up for a bad draft. Brees and Rodgers are good players and will probably finish with the most fantasy points this year, but the point differential between the first and 10th QB in 2012 (78) was not as much as the differential between the first and 10th RB (107). If you have already secured your two starting RBs, then I would consider going after Brees or Rodgers, but if not, hold steady and take a Tony Romo or Matthew Stafford who will finish in the top 10 anyways.
The same goes for tight end where Jimmy Graham should be the only one taken early. PPR obviously changes this as I would also recommend Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez to be taken higher than normal. For standard leagues, however, you can find plenty of guys late. Graham will most likely lead all tight ends in points this year, but with so many upside guys (Jordan Cameron, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett), there's no reason to waste a high pick on a TE early. The one owner that gets Graham will probably outscore your TE most weeks, but you'll probably be competitive with the rest of your league mates because their TEs won't be any good either.
Since there are 32 teams in the league, you can find a quality QB or TE in the 10th round because, well, there are 10 pretty good QBs and TEs out there. Since every owner only needs one, it doesn't make sense to reach for them. It's very possible this year that you could actually draft two QBs late and just rotate them in and out and play the matchups. Any QB can go off with a good matchup, and there are certainly more than 10 decent QBs in the NFL. A rotational system might work this year, allowing you to load up on your other positions.
Risky vs Safe
There will come a point in the draft where someone is staring Darren McFadden in the face. The knock on McFadden is he is injury prone, plays behind a horrendous offensive line, and will probably see stacked boxes since his QB play is so bad. But every time he is up to be drafted, there's that one owner that says to himself, "Alright, this is the year he stays healthy and plays like the pro he was supposed to be." He is drafted, he is injured in Week 6, and the owner scrambles to find a decent replacement. This is really a boom or bust strategy when drafting players like these with known risks. If McFadden were to play all 16 games and somehow play up to his skill level, then that owner would probably be in the playoffs, if not in the championship game. If not, however, then the pick is wasted and the mad dash to the waiver wire is on.
The safe owner picks players with a history of being low risk, putting up numbers, but with perhaps a more limited ceiling than a McFadden. An example of a player like that would be Steve Smith, WR for the Panthers. He's not going to win you any matchups by himself and won't wow any of the other owners when you select him on draft day. Still, you know he's going to go for at least 1,000 yards and a few scores as he's proven throughout his career. He's performed well with different QBs, and particularly well with current QB Cam Newton. His upside is certainly lower than a McFadden, but you're pretty much guaranteed that he will put up solid numbers and will be available all year.
Neither strategy is particularly "right," it just depends on if you want to roll the dice or not. I'm also not saying that the safe way guarantees that you won't have a team that does poorly, as anything can happen in football. The safe way just decreases the amount of worry that you'll probably have from week to week about your team.
Pass With Your Heart, But Don't Reach With Your Heart
What I mean by this is that you can come into the draft with a bias towards your favorite team and against your rivals, but don't let it cause you to make dumb draft choices. For instance, if you are a Bears fan and Packers WR James Jones is the best available player on the board, then by all means pass him for someone that you know might perform a little less poorly, but is not a Packer. On the other hand, don't go taking Matt Forte with the number one overall pick just because he's your homeboy and you think he's going to do well this year. He probably will do well, but reaching for a guy just because he plays for your favorite team is a bit absurd.
The Same Team Debate
There are differing schools of thought when it comes to drafting players that are on the same team. For instance, would it be smart for me to draft Matt Forte as well as Brandon Marshall even though they're both on the Bears? Well, it depends. For me, I don't like drafting a RB and WR on the same team, but I wouldn't mind a QB and WR or two WRs. The QB-WR combo is especially enticing because you get "double points" every time a pass is completed to that WR. For instance, if you own Jay Cutler and Marshall and they connect for a 25 yard TD, then you would get 1 point for Cutler's 25 passing yards, 2.5 points for Marshall's receiving yards, 4 or 6 (depending on your scoring settings) points for Cutler's passing TD, and 6 points for Marshall's receiving TD. Up to 15.5 points on one play! The downside is that during their bye week or if they have a bad game, then you'll have two positions that will under perform instead of just one.
This strategy obviously works best with the offenses that score the most. For instance, if you had Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White last year, you probably did pretty good even though they are all on the same team. Jones and White take targets away from each other, but when that offense is clicking (and is usually is) both of them can put up more points than a different receiver, who might get the most targets, on another team. This year, I would say this strategy applies to players on the Packers, Saints, Broncos, Patriots, Eagles, and Falcons.
Bye Week Vacation
One strategy I have seen utilized to combat bye weeks in the middle of the year is to draft all of your starters with the same bye week. This way, even though, barring a miracle, you essentially forfeit that week, you are at full strength for the other weeks while your opponents will likely be missing one or multiple starters. It's an interesting strategy to use, but very shortsighted. With all the injuries and depth chart movement that goes on during the year, it is highly likely that one of your starters won't even play all 16 weeks. There's usually also plenty of players to plug in during bye weeks that can have a good week based on their matchup. For instance, last year my QB had his bye in Week 7. I picked up Josh Freeman off of waivers because they were playing the hilariously bad Saints defense. Freeman went for 420 yards, three TDs, and no picks. Trying to get all your starter's bye weeks to match up is near impossible on draft day, so just draft as you normally would.
Handcuff
A handcuff in fantasy football applies to running backs and the strategy of drafting their backup regardless of where he is projected to be taken. Handcuffs will usually start going later in drafts. For example, Arian Foster is the number one guy in Houston. If anything were to happen to him, Ben Tate would be the next guy in line. If you didn't have Tate, you essentially just wasted your first round pick because now you have to find someone on waivers or trade for a serviceable back. If you have Tate, however, then you still have a decent back on a good running offense.
This isn't to say you should always take a handcuff. Handcuffs should really only be taken for players on teams that a) have a good offensive line or b) run the ball a lot. For example, drafting a handcuff to the Packers' starting RB wouldn't make much sense. Their offensive line is average at best and they don't run that often. Would that backup RB put up numbers if he were inserted in the lineup? It would just make more sense to pick a high upside player than a handcuff in that scenario. Taking Michael Bush as a handcuff to Forte, however, would make a lot of sense. Forte has missed some games recently and Bush has shown, in Chicago and Oakland, that he can perform when called upon. The Bears' offensive line is much better run blocking than they are at pass blocking, so it is more than likely that Bush will still put up good numbers if anything were to happen to Forte.
The Last 2 Rounds
The last two rounds should be reserved for defenses and kickers. Your league will more than likely have someone reach for Seattle or San Fran's defense and maybe even for a kicker. Do not be that person. The later rounds is when you should be drafting players with upside that could develop into starters or trade bait. Last year, Arizona, St. Louis, San Diego, Cincinnati, Denver, and New England were all ranked outside of the preseason top 10 last year, but all finished in the top 10 by the end of the year. Defensive staples like the Steelers, Ravens, and Jets however, were projected to be sure thing top 10 defenses and finished 23rd, 14th, and 20th, respectively. There are always multiple defenses that can be taken late that will emerge to be startable.
If you take a kicker prior to the last round, you need to have your head checked. Just wait until the last round and pick one on a good offense.
There it is folks, the last of my fantasy advice I can give you before draft day. I know a lot of drafts will probably be taking place this weekend, with some more taking place next weekend. Drafting well is the first key to a successful fantasy season so just remember a) wait on TE and QB b) RB is shallow and WR is deep c) brains over emotion d) handcuff when necessary e) for the love of God wait until the last round to draft a kicker.
Matty O
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