So maybe Marc Trestman wasn't the savior the Bears thought he would be. The two time Grey Cup winning coach in the Canadian Football League found much less success in the National Football League. The Bears finished 8-8 last year and couldn't win the division, despite Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers missing time. 2014 has been even more of a train wreck as the defense has somehow gotten worse, Jay Cutler has now been benched, and the Bears are guaranteed to have a losing record this year. While no action has been taken yet, it is becoming more and more likely that Trestman is fired at the end of the year.
The question now becomes who replaces him? The answer to that question may lie all the way on the West Coast, with a coach that is experiencing his own nightmare of a season. Jim Harbaugh had taken his San Francisco 49ers to the NFC Championship Game three years in a row prior to 2014. While four in a row is certainly hard to do, people had to believe that Harbaugh and the Niners would have a chance to be there, and at worst, make the playoffs. After Week 15, however, those possibilities are gone as the Niners are now eliminated from the playoffs. Depending on how the final two weeks of the season go, there is a chance that the currently 7-7 Niners will suffer their first losing season under Harbaugh. His QB, Colin Kaepernick, has regressed badly, and the dominant defense has been plagued by injury. Despite his first three successful years, Harbaugh, like Trestman, is rumored to be on the way out.
Harbaugh: The Real QB Whisperer
The three people at the top of Bears' fans' hate list currently are Trestman, GM Phil Emery, and QB Jay Cutler. While Harbaugh can do nothing to help Trestman or Emery, he can help out with Cutler. If there's one thing Harbaugh has shown he can do consistently, it's develop QBs, even those left for dead. Let's look at his time as the head coach at Stanford. While Andrew Luck is recognized as the best young QB in the game today, it was not always that way. Coming out of high school, Luck was the seventh rated QB behind the likes of Terrelle Pryor (1), Mike Glennon (3), Blaine Gabbert (5), and E.J. Manuel (6).
Harbaugh was there for Luck's redshirt freshman, freshman, and sophomore seasons. In his sophomore season, Stanford went 12-1, won the Orange Bowl with Luck as the game MVP, and Luck finished second in the Heisman voting. By that time, he was already considered the best QB prospect in college football, but bypassed the draft to come back for his junior season. Luck came back, but Harbaugh left to pursue the challenge of coaching in the NFL with the 49ers.
The QB he inherited in San Fran was Alex Smith. This is the same Alex Smith that was taken first overall by the Niners in the 2005 draft, and was deemed a bust and a joke by the time Harbaugh took the head coaching job in 2011. By that time, Smith had already had a disastrous rookie campaign (nine games, 1 TD, 11 interceptions), an entire season missed due to injury (2008), and had been pulled in favor of the likes of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith. From the moment Harbaugh signed on to the team, however, the entire narrative changed.
In 2011, Smith had, by far, his best season as a pro up to that point. He finished with his highest QB rating, best completion percentage, most yards, least interceptions (for a 16 game season), and most rushing yards than he had in any season prior. The Niners went 13-3 and made it to the NFC Championship Game. In 2012, Smith was actually having an even better season and looked like the guy they thought they were drafting first overall in 2005. Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on how you look at it, Smith went down with an injury in Week 10 against the Rams. This gave way to the Niners' second round pick in 2011, Colin Kaepernick.
Kaepernick actually had a very successful college career, but didn't get the attention because he went to the University of Nevada. He captured everyone's attention pretty quickly, however, as he displayed excellent athleticism and a surprisingly good arm. His play earned him the start over Smith once Smith was healthy. They rode Kaepernick's arm and legs all the way to an 11-4-1 record and a berth in the Super Bowl. They were so confident in Kaepernick that they decided to let Smith walk in the offseason to sign with Kansas City. It worked out for both sides as Kaepernick continued his stellar play in 2013 as he threw for over 3,000 yards and had 25 total TDs as the Niners went back to the NFC Championship Game. Smith, meanwhile, set career highs in passing yards, TDs, and rushing yards as he led KC to an 11-5 record but lost in a crazy playoff game against the Indianapolis Colts.
So, for the record, Harbaugh has turned a 7th rated QB in high school into a number one overall draft pick, a bust left for dead into a playoff-winning QB, and a backup QB out of Nevada into one of the more feared dual threat QBs in the league. It's obviously not a guarantee Cutler will even be in Chicago if Harbaugh were to come to the Bears, but whoever is there, I think Harbaugh can help tremendously.
Philosophy
Anyone that has seen the 49ers play during Harbaugh's tenure can tell exactly what his philosophy is. He wants to run the ball, control both lines of scrimmage, and play sound defense. It might not be pretty to watch, but it gets the W at the end of the day. Not only would running the ball get the ball to the Bears' most reliable player (Matt Forte), but it would also take the ball out of the hands of the Bears' most unreliable player (Cutler). Controlling the clock is key as it would allow the defense to face fewer plays, giving them less chances to be exposed.
While the defense is certainly devoid of talent, schemes and number of plays faced can help to mask some of the weaknesses. Look at the Cowboys this year. As far as talent is concerned, you could argue that their historically bad defense from last year had more. The difference is that Rod Marinelli is getting 110% out of his players and the Cowboy offense controls the ball, allowing the defense to rest and putting them in favorable positions. That needs to be the model for the Bears. They need to accept the fact that they don't have elite individual talent anymore on defense and try to minimize the amount of times they are on the field. A change in culture and philosophy can help that transition.
A Little Bit Of Crazy
Harbaugh is an interesting character. His boisterous and fiery demeanor has been seen as a pro and a con. He displays plenty of passion, but sometimes being in that kind of frenzy all the time can wear on people. That seems to have happened in San Fran. I think things would fare differently in the Windy City. Harbaugh's personality seems to be the exact opposite of Trestman's and I think that is what this team needs right now. I'm not saying someone with a calm demeanor like Trestman's can't be successful (Tony Dungy), but a little emotion is required. Harbaugh shows more emotion tying his shoe than Trestman does after a Bears' win. Some of the greats of the Bears (Mike Ditka, Mike Singletary), were known for their outbursts and loud personalities. Harbaugh fits that same kind of mold.
Obstacles
While I think Harbaugh would excel with the Bears, there are still some obstacles to point out. For starters, the Bears need to start drafting better. I mentioned how ball control can mask defensive deficiencies, but it would still be nice to have some help there. Not to take too much away from Harbaugh, but he inherited a stacked 49ers' roster, particularly on defense. Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Dashon Goldson, and Aldon Smith were all drafted by the 49ers by the time Harbaugh started coaching. The Bears have Kyle Fuller to build around, but nothing compared to what the Niners were supplied with. The offensive side of the ball is considerably better than in San Fran, though the line needs to be cleaned up. If the season ended today, the Bears would have the ninth overall pick, so it will be crucial to get a starter, and possible superstar on the defensive side of the ball or on the offensive line.
There's also the fact that Trestman hasn't been officially fired yet. While it is widely assumed that he will, there's a chance that a successful run these last two games by Jimmy Clausen could save his job. If Clausen does well, Trestman can point out that both Clausen and Josh McCown had success in his system, so the problem must be Cutler. While I doubt Clausen will be any kind of successful against the Lions and Vikings, he is the only guy who can possibly save Trestman's job.
The final issue is that coaching for the Oakland Raiders or Michigan Wolverines are also lucrative opportunities. He would be given total control at Michigan, his alma mater, to try and resurrect the once dominant college football program. With Oakland, he would be able to stay in the Bay Area where his family wants him to stay. While he would probably be given less total control than he would at Michigan, he would have more control than with the Bears. Oakland also has a project QB in Derek Carr, who has shown flashes this year, fifth overall pick in 2014 Khalil Mack, and likely a top five draft pick for the 2015 draft.
The attitude and culture that Harbaugh would bring would be beneficial to the Bears' organization. He's had success at the collegiate level, in the NFL, and has helped develop three productive quarterbacks in the league. After coming so close three times with San Fran, I think Harbaugh wants to stay in the NFL and capture the ultimate prize in football coaching. Chicago might just be the team and city that helps him fulfill that wish.
Matty O
Thursday, December 18, 2014
Monday, December 15, 2014
Matty O's 2015 Pro Bowl Ballot
Quarterback (pick 6)
Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger
Pretty easy selections here. Unfortunately you can only pick six QBs as Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Russell Wilson probably could make the argument to go to the Pro Bowl as well.
Running Back (pick 6)
Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Justin Forsett, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray
Five of these guys are no brainers, but Forsett might surprise you. Eddie Lacy and Arian Foster supporters would probably argue against Forsett being in, but here's a guy that started the year third on the depth chart and was thrust into the starting position due to suspension (Ray Rice) and injury (Bernard Pierce). He has run for 1,080 yards with an impressive 5.6 yards per carry average. He's also caught 37 passes and scored eight total TDs. I think a trip to the Pro Bowl is due for this player who is on his fourth team.
Wide Receiver (pick 8)
Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Jordy Nelson, Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas
Lots of new names here. This year has seen veteran guys fade (Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne), elite guys hampered by injury (AJ Green, Calvin Johnson), and a youngster come on strong at the end (Odell Beckham, Jr.), but the above eight guys have been consistently good all year. The three sort of unexpected guys on here are Hopkins, Maclin, and Sanders. Despite a carousel at QB, Hopkins has managed to go over 1,000 yards receiving and outperform Andre Johnson. Maclin has come back strong after he missed the entire 2013 season due to injury. He's gone over 1,100 yards and reached double digit TDs. Sanders, meanwhile, has kept pace with teammate Demaryius Thomas and posted nearly identical numbers.
Fullback (pick 2)
John Kuhn, Marcel Reece
Reece is the highlight here as he is, by far, the most versatile fullback in the league. He has 74 yards rushing, 215 yards receiving on 32 catches, and one TD. I'd really like to see him get out of Oakland and go to a team like Philly or New Orleans who would use him in creative ways.
Tight End (pick 4)
Martellus Bennett, Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Julius Thomas
This was probably the easiest category to pick as the top four are pretty clear cut. Jimmy Graham had a down year, as did the rest of the Saints' offense, and Antonio Gates just didn't put up the numbers that these four guys did.
Offensive Tackle (pick 6)
Bryan Bulaga, Ryan Clady, Doug Free, Russell Okung, Tyron Smith, Joe Thomas
I'm not going to pretend to have expertise when it comes to offensive line so my picks for offensive tackle, guard, and center will probably be based on names I'm familiar with and/or someone who really has stood out when I watched on TV.
Offensive Guard (pick 6)
Joel Bitonio, David DeCastro, Orlando Franklin, Zack Martin, Josh Sitton, Marshal Yanda
Center (pick 4)
Travis Frederick, Corey Linsley, Nick Mangold, Maurkice Pouncey
Defensive End (pick 6)
Everson Griffen, Robert Quinn, Cameron Wake, DeMarcus Ware, J.J. Watt, Mario Williams
DE was stacked this year. The next six that didn't make my ballot (Ezekiel Ansah, Willie Young, Calais Campbell, Jerry Hughes, Olivier Vernon, Chris Clemons) would still make up a formidable group of defensive ends. The highlight here is obviously Watt as I believe he should be the MVP of the league, even though he won't win it due to the award being skewed towards the offensive side of the ball.
Defensive Tackle (pick 6)
Marcell Dareus, Gerald McCoy, Stephen Paea, Sheldon Richardson, Ndamukong Suh, Muhammed Wilkerson
Another stacked category. The two guys I want to focus on are the two Jets, Wilkerson and Richardson. They have a combined 11 sacks, two forced fumbles, and have helped anchor the number four overall rushing defense in the league. It's important to note that the Jets were trailing in most of their games this year so even with the added "kill the clock" carries they faced, they were still holding up. If they could find some guys in the secondary, this defense could become elite once again.
Inside Linebacker (pick 4)
D'Qwell Jackson, Luke Kuechly, C.J. Mosley, Lawrence Timmons
Mosley is the one that has impressed me the most as he's a rookie on a team that prides itself on defense. He has responded with over 100 tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble, and two interceptions. I'm not ready to make any Ray Lewis comparisons yet, but he certainly gives this defense a bright future. He's turning out to be a steal, even at 17th overall in this year's draft.
Outside Linebacker (pick 6)
Connor Barwin, Elvis Dumervil, Justin Houston, Ryan Kerrigan, Brandon Marshall, Von Miller
The two guys I want to highlight here are Barwin and Marshall. Each time I've watched an Eagles (Barwin) or Broncos (Marshall) game, these two seem to be everywhere. Barwin flies all over the field and has 13 1/2 sacks and two forced fumbles to show for it. Marshall, meanwhile, seems to constantly fly under the radar with Miller and Ware also on the Broncos' defense, and a more famous Brandon Marshall playing receiver in Chicago. The Broncos' Marshall has over 100 tackles and seems to be a fundamentally sound football player.
Cornerback (pick 8)
Vontae Davis, Brent Grimes, Joe Haden, Keenan Lewis, Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, Buster Skrine, Aqib Talib
If the players actually give 100% effort in the Pro Bowl, I would love to see the CB vs WR matchups in this game. The three highlights here are Revis, Lewis, and Sherman. Revis Island is definitely back, and for a while, Lewis had his own island going before he got injured. Sherman is Sherman and can still shut down one side of the field, even though people have been trying to pick apart his game all year.
Strong Safety (pick 2)
Kam Chancellor, Donte Whitner
Not only are they the two best strong safties in the league, but they are two of the hardest hitters in the NFL.
Free Safety (pick 2)
Tashaun Gipson, Earl Thomas
Thomas was an easy pick, but it was tough to choose between Gipson and Chargers' safety Eric Weddle. Since Weddle and Thomas play a similar game, I went with Gipson as he is more of a play maker and ball hawk than either guy. Gipson leads all safeties in interceptions with six, and is allowed to float around with Whitner playing beside him.
Kicker (pick 2)
Dan Carpenter, Adam Vinatieri
Carpenter has attempted the most FGs this year and is 28/32 and has banged one through from 58. Vinatieri is a perfect 27/27 as he continues to build on his Hall of Fame career.
Punter (pick 2)
Shane Lechler, Pat McAfee
The two best punters in the league were playing against each other this past weekend. Both have done it for a while and both can absolutely crush the ball.
Return Specialist (pick 2)
Devin Hester, Darren Sproles
Two easy picks here. Hester looks like a new man in Atlanta, as he has the highest punt return average in the league, a punt return TD, and almost 1000 kickoff return yards. Sproles, meanwhile, has the second highest punt return average and two punt return TDs. Both are electric and you have to hold your breath whenever they get even a sliver of room on returns.
Special Teamer (pick 2)
Matt Slater
I know you're supposed to pick two, but I really don't know anything about any of the other candidates. Slater is almost always the first guy down the field on punts and kickoffs for the Patriots. He deserves to go. Coin flip for the rest.
Disagree with my picks? Want to see your favorite player make the trip to the Pro Bowl? Well then, go here to vote for your favorite players.
Matty O
Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger
Pretty easy selections here. Unfortunately you can only pick six QBs as Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Russell Wilson probably could make the argument to go to the Pro Bowl as well.
Running Back (pick 6)
Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Justin Forsett, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray
Five of these guys are no brainers, but Forsett might surprise you. Eddie Lacy and Arian Foster supporters would probably argue against Forsett being in, but here's a guy that started the year third on the depth chart and was thrust into the starting position due to suspension (Ray Rice) and injury (Bernard Pierce). He has run for 1,080 yards with an impressive 5.6 yards per carry average. He's also caught 37 passes and scored eight total TDs. I think a trip to the Pro Bowl is due for this player who is on his fourth team.
Wide Receiver (pick 8)
Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Jordy Nelson, Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas
Lots of new names here. This year has seen veteran guys fade (Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne), elite guys hampered by injury (AJ Green, Calvin Johnson), and a youngster come on strong at the end (Odell Beckham, Jr.), but the above eight guys have been consistently good all year. The three sort of unexpected guys on here are Hopkins, Maclin, and Sanders. Despite a carousel at QB, Hopkins has managed to go over 1,000 yards receiving and outperform Andre Johnson. Maclin has come back strong after he missed the entire 2013 season due to injury. He's gone over 1,100 yards and reached double digit TDs. Sanders, meanwhile, has kept pace with teammate Demaryius Thomas and posted nearly identical numbers.
Fullback (pick 2)
John Kuhn, Marcel Reece
Reece is the highlight here as he is, by far, the most versatile fullback in the league. He has 74 yards rushing, 215 yards receiving on 32 catches, and one TD. I'd really like to see him get out of Oakland and go to a team like Philly or New Orleans who would use him in creative ways.
Tight End (pick 4)
Martellus Bennett, Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Julius Thomas
This was probably the easiest category to pick as the top four are pretty clear cut. Jimmy Graham had a down year, as did the rest of the Saints' offense, and Antonio Gates just didn't put up the numbers that these four guys did.
Offensive Tackle (pick 6)
Bryan Bulaga, Ryan Clady, Doug Free, Russell Okung, Tyron Smith, Joe Thomas
I'm not going to pretend to have expertise when it comes to offensive line so my picks for offensive tackle, guard, and center will probably be based on names I'm familiar with and/or someone who really has stood out when I watched on TV.
Offensive Guard (pick 6)
Joel Bitonio, David DeCastro, Orlando Franklin, Zack Martin, Josh Sitton, Marshal Yanda
Center (pick 4)
Travis Frederick, Corey Linsley, Nick Mangold, Maurkice Pouncey
Defensive End (pick 6)
Everson Griffen, Robert Quinn, Cameron Wake, DeMarcus Ware, J.J. Watt, Mario Williams
DE was stacked this year. The next six that didn't make my ballot (Ezekiel Ansah, Willie Young, Calais Campbell, Jerry Hughes, Olivier Vernon, Chris Clemons) would still make up a formidable group of defensive ends. The highlight here is obviously Watt as I believe he should be the MVP of the league, even though he won't win it due to the award being skewed towards the offensive side of the ball.
Defensive Tackle (pick 6)
Marcell Dareus, Gerald McCoy, Stephen Paea, Sheldon Richardson, Ndamukong Suh, Muhammed Wilkerson
Another stacked category. The two guys I want to focus on are the two Jets, Wilkerson and Richardson. They have a combined 11 sacks, two forced fumbles, and have helped anchor the number four overall rushing defense in the league. It's important to note that the Jets were trailing in most of their games this year so even with the added "kill the clock" carries they faced, they were still holding up. If they could find some guys in the secondary, this defense could become elite once again.
Inside Linebacker (pick 4)
D'Qwell Jackson, Luke Kuechly, C.J. Mosley, Lawrence Timmons
Mosley is the one that has impressed me the most as he's a rookie on a team that prides itself on defense. He has responded with over 100 tackles, two sacks, a forced fumble, and two interceptions. I'm not ready to make any Ray Lewis comparisons yet, but he certainly gives this defense a bright future. He's turning out to be a steal, even at 17th overall in this year's draft.
Outside Linebacker (pick 6)
Connor Barwin, Elvis Dumervil, Justin Houston, Ryan Kerrigan, Brandon Marshall, Von Miller
The two guys I want to highlight here are Barwin and Marshall. Each time I've watched an Eagles (Barwin) or Broncos (Marshall) game, these two seem to be everywhere. Barwin flies all over the field and has 13 1/2 sacks and two forced fumbles to show for it. Marshall, meanwhile, seems to constantly fly under the radar with Miller and Ware also on the Broncos' defense, and a more famous Brandon Marshall playing receiver in Chicago. The Broncos' Marshall has over 100 tackles and seems to be a fundamentally sound football player.
Cornerback (pick 8)
Vontae Davis, Brent Grimes, Joe Haden, Keenan Lewis, Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, Buster Skrine, Aqib Talib
If the players actually give 100% effort in the Pro Bowl, I would love to see the CB vs WR matchups in this game. The three highlights here are Revis, Lewis, and Sherman. Revis Island is definitely back, and for a while, Lewis had his own island going before he got injured. Sherman is Sherman and can still shut down one side of the field, even though people have been trying to pick apart his game all year.
Strong Safety (pick 2)
Kam Chancellor, Donte Whitner
Not only are they the two best strong safties in the league, but they are two of the hardest hitters in the NFL.
Free Safety (pick 2)
Tashaun Gipson, Earl Thomas
Thomas was an easy pick, but it was tough to choose between Gipson and Chargers' safety Eric Weddle. Since Weddle and Thomas play a similar game, I went with Gipson as he is more of a play maker and ball hawk than either guy. Gipson leads all safeties in interceptions with six, and is allowed to float around with Whitner playing beside him.
Kicker (pick 2)
Dan Carpenter, Adam Vinatieri
Carpenter has attempted the most FGs this year and is 28/32 and has banged one through from 58. Vinatieri is a perfect 27/27 as he continues to build on his Hall of Fame career.
Punter (pick 2)
Shane Lechler, Pat McAfee
The two best punters in the league were playing against each other this past weekend. Both have done it for a while and both can absolutely crush the ball.
Return Specialist (pick 2)
Devin Hester, Darren Sproles
Two easy picks here. Hester looks like a new man in Atlanta, as he has the highest punt return average in the league, a punt return TD, and almost 1000 kickoff return yards. Sproles, meanwhile, has the second highest punt return average and two punt return TDs. Both are electric and you have to hold your breath whenever they get even a sliver of room on returns.
Special Teamer (pick 2)
Matt Slater
I know you're supposed to pick two, but I really don't know anything about any of the other candidates. Slater is almost always the first guy down the field on punts and kickoffs for the Patriots. He deserves to go. Coin flip for the rest.
Disagree with my picks? Want to see your favorite player make the trip to the Pro Bowl? Well then, go here to vote for your favorite players.
Matty O
Friday, December 12, 2014
2014-15 Bowl/Playoff Preview
Did you hear the one about how the playoff system would get rid of controversy? That was a good one. In year number one of the playoff system, we wound up with a final four of Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, and Ohio State. Baylor and TCU, meanwhile, were shunned from the playoffs despite having "better losses" than Ohio State's 35-21 early season loss at home to Virginia Tech. Since Baylor and TCU are in a conference that doesn't have a conference championship game, however, it was extremely hard to prove to the committee just how worthy they were on the final weekend of the season. With no outright Big 12 champion, the committee went with the SEC, Pac-12, ACC, and Big 10 champions to square off in the first ever college football playoff. Lost in all the playoff hype is the fact that there are still bowl games to be played, and some that should command your attention.
Best Non-Playoff Bowl
Michigan State vs Baylor, Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Jan. 1st
What better way to kick off the new year than with an "unstoppable force vs immovable object" matchup? Michigan State is your classic Big 10 team, utilizing a strong run game led by Jeremy Langford to compliment their stout defense. State ranks 7th in overall defense in the nation and 12th in points against. The Spartans want nothing more than to turn this game into an ugly slug fest. On the flip side is Baylor, who puts up points at an alarming rate. They are 3rd in the nation in overall offense and 1st in points for, averaging a ridiculous 48.8 points per game. State is by far the best defense Baylor will have played, so it will be interesting to see how NFL prospect Bryce Petty fares in this game. The only time State played an offense this explosive was in Oregon early in the season. They kept it close, until the Ducks pulled away and hung 46 points on them. Something's gotta give.
Best Non-Power 5 Conference Bowl
Northern Illinois vs Marshall, Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 23rd
Marshall picked up right where they left off after last year's 10-4 finish and jumped out to an 11-0 start, reaching as high as number 18 in the AP Poll. While the final four playoff was never a realistic option given their conference and weak out of conference schedule, an appearance in one of the other four major bowls (Fiesta, Cotton, Peach, Orange) was not out of the question. One wacky 67-66 overtime loss to Western Kentucky later, and their hopes were pretty much gone. They rallied to win their conference title and have an explosive offense led by quarterback Rakeem Cato.
NIU, meanwhile, beat a Big 10 team again this year in Northwestern, but were demolished in Arkansas to close out their out of conference schedule. A loss to an SEC team wasn't crippling to NIU's high bowl aspirations, but a loss three weeks later to Central Michigan was. They finished strong, but were on the outside looking in and needed Boise State to falter. That didn't happen. Now they have a dangerous matchup in a game that should see plenty of points. Both teams will look to finish strong and show the nation that there is real talent in the non-Power 5 conferences.
Disappointment Bowl
Ole Miss vs TCU, Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, Dec. 31st
For a while, it looked like both of these teams were headed to the playoffs. Ole Miss was on top of the world after beating Alabama in Oxford, and backed it up the next week by beating Texas A&M in College Station. A trip to LSU was not as daunting as it looked in the preseason, but Ole Miss and their offense were stifled as they lost 10-7 on a final drive interception even though they were already in field goal range. The following week was arguably more heartbreaking as they lost 35-31 at home to Auburn when Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell fumbled the ball right before crossing the goal line, and Auburn recovered for a touchback. The final nail in the coffin came three weeks later in Arkansas as they were inexplicably shut out 30-0.
TCU's heartbreak didn't come until this past weekend when they dropped from #3 to #6 despite winning their last game 55-3 and not having lost since mid-October to a top 5 Baylor team in Waco. Due to Ohio State blasting Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game, TCU was jumped and fell behind Florida State, Ohio State, and the only team that beat TCU this year, Baylor. I still think TCU is one of the top four teams in the country and they should be out for blood against Ole Miss. I have a feeling that this could get ugly and fast, as I think TCU beats Ole Miss by at least two touchdowns.
Upset Alert Bowl
Minnesota vs Missouri, Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl, Jan. 1st
This is one of four matchups that feature an SEC vs Big 10 setup. Missouri reached their championship game by winning a weak SEC East, while Minnesota has alternated wins and losses since mid-October and came in second behind Wisconsin in the Big 10 West. Mizzou are almost a TD favorite, but they're not as good as their #16 ranking suggests. They avoided Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Auburn, and LSU, and were shutout by Georgia at home and steamrolled by Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Minnesota was crushed by TCU early on, but played their last three ranked opponents tough. They almost knocked off Ohio State, they picked up a big win in Lincoln against Nebraska, and they lost by 10 in Madison the final game of their season. It won't be pretty, but if Minnesota can run the ball and grind the game to a halt, I think they have a chance to pull the upset.
Potential Record Breaking Bowl
Wisconsin vs Auburn, Outback Bowl, Jan. 1st
Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon needs 293 yards in this bowl to break Barry Sanders' single season rushing record of 2,628 yards. He has easily been the best rusher in college football this year and this will be the last chance to see him in college as he is going pro after this game. It won't be easy as Auburn only gives up an average of 149.5 rushing yards per game. Wisconsin should feed Gordon plenty, however, to try and keep Auburn's explosive, up-tempo offense off the field. A motivated Wisconsin offense that wants to get Gordon the record and a run based offense could make it happen. Should be a good game either way.
The Final Four
Oregon vs Florida State, Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual, Jan. 1st
By all accounts, Florida State should lose this game. Then again, they should have lost against Clemson, against Notre Dame, at Louisville, at Miami, against Boston College, against Florida, and against Georgia Tech as well. This is a team that lives on the edge and somehow gets away with it week after week. It's a bit hard to explain as their defense is good but not great, and their offense can look both unstoppable and unwatchable in the same game. While the balancing act has been fun to watch, I think the fun ends on New Year's Day against Oregon.
The Ducks have the second ranked offense in the country, score the third most points per game (46.3), should have a massive home field advantage with the game at the Rose Bowl, and will probably be wearing some pretty bad ass new uniforms. Their only hiccup this year was a wacky Thursday night loss at home to Arizona, which was avenged in the Pac-12 Championship as the Ducks pounded Arizona, 51-13. Technically, both of these teams have beaten all the teams on their schedules. I think the Ducks will simply overwhelm Florida State early and often. Florida State, like in their other games, will find life in the second half, only to realize that the Ducks can actually hang with them offensively. I think this turns into a shootout with the Ducks coming out on top. Oregon - 52, Florida State - 38.
Alabama vs Ohio State, Allstate Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1st
I don't think even Braxton Miller could save this Buckeye team in this game. While third string QB Cardale Jones did have a nice game in the Big 10 Championship Game, he's still a third string QB and will now face the Crimson Tide defense instead of the Badgers. Alabama, meanwhile, has a much more mature Blake Sims at QB and Heisman candidate Amari Cooper at WR. That combo has been lethal this season, and I see no reason why they won't have continued success against the Buckeyes. Ohio State is riding high coming off that impressive Big 10 Championship Game, but I think they get a very rude wake up call from a Nick Saban Alabama team looking for its third National Championship in the last four years. Alabama - 38, Ohio State - 20.
Matty O
Best Non-Playoff Bowl
Michigan State vs Baylor, Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Jan. 1st
What better way to kick off the new year than with an "unstoppable force vs immovable object" matchup? Michigan State is your classic Big 10 team, utilizing a strong run game led by Jeremy Langford to compliment their stout defense. State ranks 7th in overall defense in the nation and 12th in points against. The Spartans want nothing more than to turn this game into an ugly slug fest. On the flip side is Baylor, who puts up points at an alarming rate. They are 3rd in the nation in overall offense and 1st in points for, averaging a ridiculous 48.8 points per game. State is by far the best defense Baylor will have played, so it will be interesting to see how NFL prospect Bryce Petty fares in this game. The only time State played an offense this explosive was in Oregon early in the season. They kept it close, until the Ducks pulled away and hung 46 points on them. Something's gotta give.
Best Non-Power 5 Conference Bowl
Northern Illinois vs Marshall, Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 23rd
Marshall picked up right where they left off after last year's 10-4 finish and jumped out to an 11-0 start, reaching as high as number 18 in the AP Poll. While the final four playoff was never a realistic option given their conference and weak out of conference schedule, an appearance in one of the other four major bowls (Fiesta, Cotton, Peach, Orange) was not out of the question. One wacky 67-66 overtime loss to Western Kentucky later, and their hopes were pretty much gone. They rallied to win their conference title and have an explosive offense led by quarterback Rakeem Cato.
NIU, meanwhile, beat a Big 10 team again this year in Northwestern, but were demolished in Arkansas to close out their out of conference schedule. A loss to an SEC team wasn't crippling to NIU's high bowl aspirations, but a loss three weeks later to Central Michigan was. They finished strong, but were on the outside looking in and needed Boise State to falter. That didn't happen. Now they have a dangerous matchup in a game that should see plenty of points. Both teams will look to finish strong and show the nation that there is real talent in the non-Power 5 conferences.
Disappointment Bowl
Ole Miss vs TCU, Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, Dec. 31st
For a while, it looked like both of these teams were headed to the playoffs. Ole Miss was on top of the world after beating Alabama in Oxford, and backed it up the next week by beating Texas A&M in College Station. A trip to LSU was not as daunting as it looked in the preseason, but Ole Miss and their offense were stifled as they lost 10-7 on a final drive interception even though they were already in field goal range. The following week was arguably more heartbreaking as they lost 35-31 at home to Auburn when Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell fumbled the ball right before crossing the goal line, and Auburn recovered for a touchback. The final nail in the coffin came three weeks later in Arkansas as they were inexplicably shut out 30-0.
TCU's heartbreak didn't come until this past weekend when they dropped from #3 to #6 despite winning their last game 55-3 and not having lost since mid-October to a top 5 Baylor team in Waco. Due to Ohio State blasting Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game, TCU was jumped and fell behind Florida State, Ohio State, and the only team that beat TCU this year, Baylor. I still think TCU is one of the top four teams in the country and they should be out for blood against Ole Miss. I have a feeling that this could get ugly and fast, as I think TCU beats Ole Miss by at least two touchdowns.
Upset Alert Bowl
Minnesota vs Missouri, Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl, Jan. 1st
This is one of four matchups that feature an SEC vs Big 10 setup. Missouri reached their championship game by winning a weak SEC East, while Minnesota has alternated wins and losses since mid-October and came in second behind Wisconsin in the Big 10 West. Mizzou are almost a TD favorite, but they're not as good as their #16 ranking suggests. They avoided Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Auburn, and LSU, and were shutout by Georgia at home and steamrolled by Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Minnesota was crushed by TCU early on, but played their last three ranked opponents tough. They almost knocked off Ohio State, they picked up a big win in Lincoln against Nebraska, and they lost by 10 in Madison the final game of their season. It won't be pretty, but if Minnesota can run the ball and grind the game to a halt, I think they have a chance to pull the upset.
Potential Record Breaking Bowl
Wisconsin vs Auburn, Outback Bowl, Jan. 1st
Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon needs 293 yards in this bowl to break Barry Sanders' single season rushing record of 2,628 yards. He has easily been the best rusher in college football this year and this will be the last chance to see him in college as he is going pro after this game. It won't be easy as Auburn only gives up an average of 149.5 rushing yards per game. Wisconsin should feed Gordon plenty, however, to try and keep Auburn's explosive, up-tempo offense off the field. A motivated Wisconsin offense that wants to get Gordon the record and a run based offense could make it happen. Should be a good game either way.
The Final Four
Oregon vs Florida State, Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual, Jan. 1st
By all accounts, Florida State should lose this game. Then again, they should have lost against Clemson, against Notre Dame, at Louisville, at Miami, against Boston College, against Florida, and against Georgia Tech as well. This is a team that lives on the edge and somehow gets away with it week after week. It's a bit hard to explain as their defense is good but not great, and their offense can look both unstoppable and unwatchable in the same game. While the balancing act has been fun to watch, I think the fun ends on New Year's Day against Oregon.
The Ducks have the second ranked offense in the country, score the third most points per game (46.3), should have a massive home field advantage with the game at the Rose Bowl, and will probably be wearing some pretty bad ass new uniforms. Their only hiccup this year was a wacky Thursday night loss at home to Arizona, which was avenged in the Pac-12 Championship as the Ducks pounded Arizona, 51-13. Technically, both of these teams have beaten all the teams on their schedules. I think the Ducks will simply overwhelm Florida State early and often. Florida State, like in their other games, will find life in the second half, only to realize that the Ducks can actually hang with them offensively. I think this turns into a shootout with the Ducks coming out on top. Oregon - 52, Florida State - 38.
Alabama vs Ohio State, Allstate Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1st
I don't think even Braxton Miller could save this Buckeye team in this game. While third string QB Cardale Jones did have a nice game in the Big 10 Championship Game, he's still a third string QB and will now face the Crimson Tide defense instead of the Badgers. Alabama, meanwhile, has a much more mature Blake Sims at QB and Heisman candidate Amari Cooper at WR. That combo has been lethal this season, and I see no reason why they won't have continued success against the Buckeyes. Ohio State is riding high coming off that impressive Big 10 Championship Game, but I think they get a very rude wake up call from a Nick Saban Alabama team looking for its third National Championship in the last four years. Alabama - 38, Ohio State - 20.
Matty O
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
NFL Teams Giving Thanks
In the spirit of Thanksgiving, here are what NFL teams should be thankful for with five games left to go in the season.
The Arizona Cardinals are thankful that their defense is so good. That's really all they have to hang their hat on entering the playoffs as their offense cannot thrive with Drew Stanton under center. They've scored 17 total points in their past two games with Stanton under center combined. It was against two of the better defenses in the NFL (Seattle and Detroit), but it's not like those kind of defenses won't be there in the playoffs.
The Atlanta Falcons are thankful that they play six games against NFC South opponents. They are 4-0 in their division and 0-7 outside of it. They have three outside their division left and two in their division. That would give them a final record of 6-10 if everything keeps going this way. Sadly, that may be enough to win the NFC South.
The Baltimore Ravens are thankful that they signed Justin Forsett. Forsett, a journeyman NFL player on his fourth NFL team in six seasons, was buried on the depth chart behind Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. After Rice got suspended and Pierce got hurt, however, it was Forsett who had to pick up the slack for the Ravens. He's performed tremendously as he's already topped his single season high in rushing yards and TDs with five games left to play.
The Buffalo Bills are thankful that they made a quarterback change. While some teams stubbornly stick with their young, project QBs (Jets, Redskins), the Bills decided to remove the young EJ Manuel and put in the wily veteran Kyle Orton, after Manuel put up back to back duds against the Chargers and Texans in Weeks 3 and 4. They've gone 4-3 since then with their losses coming to the Pats, against KC, and in Miami on a Thursday. They're still in the playoff hunt at the end of November, which is a welcome change for Bills fans.
The Carolina Panthers are thankful that they don't play anymore prime time games. Their three this year were Sunday Night Football against Pittsburgh in Week 3, Thursday Night Football against New Orleans in Week 9, and Monday Night Football in Philly in Week 10. They allowed the Steelers' offense to do whatever they wanted in Week 3, Cam Newton went 10/28 for 151 yards and an interception in Week 9, and then Cam put up an 8.4 QBR in Week 10 and struggled to even stand. Luckily, the rest of their games are at noon so the Panthers' fans suffering can at least be early in the day.
The Chicago Bears are thankful that they don't listen to the fans. Cutler would be gone, Trestman would be back in Canada, and Mike from the butcher shop would be the new coach because he drew up some pretty cool plays at the bar last night. The reality is Cutler is locked in contractually and still gives them their best chance to win. No free agents are as good as Cutler and the Bears don't lose enough to get a high enough draft pick for a good QB. Also remember that this is only Trestman's second year with players that he didn't draft.
The Cincinnati Bengals are thankful that their schedule has been so easy. The only team that they've beaten with a winning record have been the Ravens, twice. On the other hand, the Patriots embarrassed them, they somehow tied the woeful Panthers in Cincinnati, were shut out by the Colts, and were blown out by Cleveland. They're setting themselves up for the same narrative once again. They'll make the playoffs, then be a quick out as they beat the teams they're supposed to and get thrashed by the great teams.
The Cleveland Browns are thankful that Josh Gordon is back. They were 6-4 without him, but Gordon is the key for their offense to go from mediocre to pretty good. They used their improved offense this past weekend to win in the Georgia Dome against the Falcons. All roads to the Super Bowl seem to have to go through New England or Denver so they'll need an offensive weapon that can keep up with Brady and Manning. Gordon provides that spark.
The Dallas Cowboys are thankful that they didn't draft Johnny Manziel this past spring. He was there. The high flying Texas A&M phenom staying in state to play for the most prominent team and owner in the NFL. They would've won the offseason, but that's not what this team is trying to do. Instead they took offensive lineman Zack Martin, who has been an important part of Dallas' new found running game. It has put Dallas in a position to make a deep run in the playoffs, while Manziel continues to sit in Cleveland.
The Denver Broncos are thankful that John Elway is their owner. He realizes what his team needs, who is available that can help those needs, and acts without hesitation. Getting Peyton Manning a couple years ago was obviously a huge move, but this past offseason might have been even better. TJ Ward, Demarcus Ware, and Aqib Talib have all made the Denver defense much better than last year, and Emmanuel Sanders has predictably slid right in and outperformed Eric Decker, whom they lost to free agency.
The Detroit Lions are thankful that they don't use the college football ranking system in the NFL. If they did, the Lions would fail the eye test and margin of victory test terribly. Watching the Lions, they just don't look like a good team. They got blown out by the Panthers, lost to the Bills, put up six in a loss to Arizona, and looked like the mid-2000s Lions as they got blown out by the Patriots. Even when they win, they still do head scratching Lion like things.
The Green Bay Packers are thankful that Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback. I mean, not much else to say here. He's good.
The Houston Texans are thankful that defensive end JJ Watt is not a real human being. He's got to be some kind of machine, right? He has 9 1/2 sacks, two defensive TDs, two receiving TDs, and is disruptive to a game plan at all times. DeAndre Hopkins is the only Texans' wide receiver with more receiving TDs than Watt. He's a legitimate NFL MVP candidate and would probably win if Brady, Rodgers, and DeMarco Murray weren't having such good years.
The Indianapolis Colts are thankful that Ahmad Bradshaw was healthy this year. Obviously he just got injured a couple weeks ago, and I'm not sure the Colts sit at 7-4 without him. Trent Richardson, contrary to what I thought when they traded for him, just isn't working out in Indy. Enter Bradshaw who has rushed for eight less yards than Richardson, but also has received 37 less carries. He has the fourth most receptions on the team and the second most receiving TDs. It will be interesting to see how this offense does down the stretch without him.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are thankful that they have pieces in place. It might not seem like it because of their 1-10 record, but the Jags are close to becoming a decent team in this league, particularly offensively. Blake Bortles is a rookie doing rookie things, but should improve given his physical traits. Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson have both shown they can play in this league, though Robinson is done for the year. Denard Robinson has come out of nowhere and has gone from Michigan quarterback to bell cow back for this team. Don't sleep on this team in the near future.
The Kansas City Chiefs are thankful that their receivers are not selfish and/or outspoken. The Chiefs have a meager 13 passing TDs this year. Of those 13, zero have gone to a wide receiver. And they say the NFL has evolved into a passing league. At some point though, they're going to need some explosive plays in the passing game to make a deep run in the playoffs. Sunday Night's game against the Broncos in Arrowhead will be a good test to determine where both teams are.
The Miami Dolphins are thankful that Ryan Tannehill has been unleashed. It sounds funny to say, but Tannehill has actually started to play well now that the training wheels are off. He should shatter his season high for TD passes, he's cut down on his fumbles, and he's already topped his season high for total rushing yards with only 11 games played. The Dolphins sit at 6-5 after a hard fought loss in Denver and have key games against the Ravens in Week 14 and in New England in Week 15.
The Minnesota Vikings are thankful that their team still plays hard? Look, I'm stretching here as the Vikes have very little to be thankful for. They lost their star running back to suspension, Teddy Bridgewater hasn't been as good as advertised, their division is tough, and they have to play their games outside in the freezing cold of Minnesota instead of indoors. They played the Bears and Packers tough their last two games, but came out losers. They seem to at least be trying, but the skill gap is just too great. It will be interesting to see if Adrian Peterson ever wears the purple and gold again.
The New England Patriots are thankful that they just don't care. If Bill Belichick and Jay Cutler ever teamed up, they would be the best non-caring coach/QB combo in NFL history. People, including myself, pretty much wrote off the Patriots after their Week 4 meltdown in Kansas City. People were even calling for Jimmy Garoppolo to start over Tom Brady. Wouldn't you know that since Week 4, the Pats haven't lost a game and have looked like the best team in the NFL. If the demolition continues in Green Bay this weekend, I'm not sure how the Patriots aren't everyone's Super Bowl pick.
The New Orleans Saints are thankful that they have found a running game. Despite their 4-7 record, they're still in first place and can still secure a home playoff game. Without Mark Ingram finally playing like a first round draft pick, they might be in Tampa Bay territory record wise. Ingram has already topped his career rushing yardage and TD totals in only eight games. He was a big reason why the Saints got their first road win in forever this year as they fed him the ball 30 times in Carolina in Week 9. Dropping three straight at home was a head scratcher, but their running game could help them stay afloat in the weak NFC South.
The New York Giants are thankful that they drafted Odell Beckham Jr. Beckham's insane catch will probably be the highlight of the year, surrounded by moments of sadness and dread. Once Victor Cruz went down for the year, the Giants needed someone to make their offense respectable. Beckham filled that role nicely and has shown that he has some of the best hands in the game, even as a rookie. Giants fans might be the most thankful after the season, if Tom Coughlin and/or Eli Manning are run out of town.
The New York Jets are thankful that they have a quarterback controversy. If they didn't, no one would be talking about them this year. Instead, the media enjoys a good back and forth on whether Michael Vick or Geno Smith should be the starting QB. Personally, I think you could have both on the field at the same time, both with live footballs, and they still couldn't move the chains. Vick is past his prime and Geno just isn't good. A top 10 draft pick seems like a certainty for the Jets. Scholars will be forever puzzled how this team beat the Steelers in Week 10.
The Oakland Raiders are thankful that they're not the Jets. People stopped talking about the Raiders months ago and they actually won in their only prime time spot, beating the Chiefs 24-20 for their first and probably only win. People will pretty much forget about them unless they win or do something awesome. That's not the worst situation to be in. Also, they're making a strong push for the number one overall draft pick!
The Philadelphia Eagles are thankful that Chip Kelly's system is so quarterback friendly. Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez are names that shouldn't strike fear into the hearts of anyone, let alone NFL teams. Somehow, with those two signal callers, the Eagles are 8-3 with losses in San Fran, Arizona, and Green Bay. Not bad. Because of the pace at which the offense runs and the threat of LeSean McCoy getting the ball, it puts tremendous pressure on the defense and allows quarterbacks to thrive no matter who is back there. Their next three games (at Dallas, vs Seattle, vs Dallas) will tell us a lot about a Mark Sanchez-led offense moving forward, and should decide the NFC East.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are thankful that no one can cover Antonio Brown. Having him for fantasy football makes you realize how much they feed him the ball. Brown has a ridiculous 123 targets with 70 targets for Le'Veon Bell coming in second. He's in the top 10 in the NFL in receiving yards, TDs, and yards after catch. He's a significant reason why Big Ben has had such a good year and why this Steelers passing game is now feared by defenses.
The Saint Louis Rams are thankful that they know what they have with each of their quarterbacks. Sam Bradford just can't stay healthy and will likely be gone from the team either next year or in 2016 when he becomes a free agent. Austin Davis is a replacement level QB at best. Shaun Hill can get the job done, but won't take a team to the next level. The Rams are a fairly good team overall, but have been looking for answers at quarterback since Kurt Warner and have yet to find one. Maybe the 2015 draft will bring them good fortune.
The San Diego Chargers are thankful that they accumulated wins early in the season. Recently, the Chargers have looked bad. Weeks 7-9 saw three straight losses, capped off by a 37-0 drubbing at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. Their past two games have been won by a combined 10 points against the Raiders and Rams. Their upcoming schedule takes them to Baltimore, at home against New England and Denver, then to San Fran, and finishing up in Arrowhead. At 7-4 in the AFC West, they'll be lucky to make the playoffs.
The San Francisco 49ers are thankful that they have played through distractions. Their two most significant distractions were their decision to play Ray McDonald while a domestic violence investigation was ongoing against him, and the rumors that Jim Harbaugh had lost the locker room and was leaving after this year. No charges ended up being filed against McDonald, although at the time, I thought he should not have played simply because it looked bad for the organization. The Harbaugh rumors have died off pretty quickly as they now sit at 7-4 in a division they can still win. Their home and home with Seattle in the next three weeks could eliminate one of them from playoff contention.
The Seattle Seahawks are thankful that their home field advantage remains one of the best in the NFL. It lost some of its luster when the Broncos drove down the field at the end of regulation to force overtime in Week 3, and when Dallas actually beat the Seahawks in Week 6, but it's still not a pleasant place to play. They just smothered the division leading Arizona Cardinals at home and now get the Niners twice sandwiched around a game in Philly. The Seahawks need a great stretch run to secure at least one home home playoff game to have that thunderous crowd backing them.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are thankful that they play in the NFC South. You could really say that about any team in that division, but the Bucs are probably the ones that benefit the most. The glass half empty folks will say that they are losers and are only one game behind Oakland and Jacksonville for the number one overall pick in the draft. The glass half full folks will say that they're an up and coming team that are only two games out of first place in their division. Both are true. Go figure.
The Tennessee Titans are thankful that they drafted Zach Mettenberger. The Titans with Mettenberger are in the same boat as the Giants with his LSU teammate, Beckham. Both have lost seasons, but are at least giving their rookies valuable reps. At LSU, he had all the physical ability but would occasionally make awful decisions. This has carried over into the NFL, but can be fixed with time. He's certainly better than the other two QBs on the roster (Jake Locker and Charlie Whitehurst) and his sixth round draft selection makes him easy to part ways with if the experiment doesn't work out.
The Washington Redskins are thankful that Robert Griffin III only has one year left on his contract. It just hasn't worked out and the Redskins need to acknowledge that. I'm not sure he'll ever be as dynamic of a runner as he was in his rookie season. I've mentioned on my fantasy football articles that without the threat of his legs, RG3 is no more than an average passer in the NFL. I think his athleticism and skill that he showed his rookie year is what keeps Redskins fans wanting him to turn it around, but I doubt he will for the Redskins, or any other NFL team for that matter.
Matty O
The Arizona Cardinals are thankful that their defense is so good. That's really all they have to hang their hat on entering the playoffs as their offense cannot thrive with Drew Stanton under center. They've scored 17 total points in their past two games with Stanton under center combined. It was against two of the better defenses in the NFL (Seattle and Detroit), but it's not like those kind of defenses won't be there in the playoffs.
The Atlanta Falcons are thankful that they play six games against NFC South opponents. They are 4-0 in their division and 0-7 outside of it. They have three outside their division left and two in their division. That would give them a final record of 6-10 if everything keeps going this way. Sadly, that may be enough to win the NFC South.
The Baltimore Ravens are thankful that they signed Justin Forsett. Forsett, a journeyman NFL player on his fourth NFL team in six seasons, was buried on the depth chart behind Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. After Rice got suspended and Pierce got hurt, however, it was Forsett who had to pick up the slack for the Ravens. He's performed tremendously as he's already topped his single season high in rushing yards and TDs with five games left to play.
The Buffalo Bills are thankful that they made a quarterback change. While some teams stubbornly stick with their young, project QBs (Jets, Redskins), the Bills decided to remove the young EJ Manuel and put in the wily veteran Kyle Orton, after Manuel put up back to back duds against the Chargers and Texans in Weeks 3 and 4. They've gone 4-3 since then with their losses coming to the Pats, against KC, and in Miami on a Thursday. They're still in the playoff hunt at the end of November, which is a welcome change for Bills fans.
The Carolina Panthers are thankful that they don't play anymore prime time games. Their three this year were Sunday Night Football against Pittsburgh in Week 3, Thursday Night Football against New Orleans in Week 9, and Monday Night Football in Philly in Week 10. They allowed the Steelers' offense to do whatever they wanted in Week 3, Cam Newton went 10/28 for 151 yards and an interception in Week 9, and then Cam put up an 8.4 QBR in Week 10 and struggled to even stand. Luckily, the rest of their games are at noon so the Panthers' fans suffering can at least be early in the day.
The Chicago Bears are thankful that they don't listen to the fans. Cutler would be gone, Trestman would be back in Canada, and Mike from the butcher shop would be the new coach because he drew up some pretty cool plays at the bar last night. The reality is Cutler is locked in contractually and still gives them their best chance to win. No free agents are as good as Cutler and the Bears don't lose enough to get a high enough draft pick for a good QB. Also remember that this is only Trestman's second year with players that he didn't draft.
The Cincinnati Bengals are thankful that their schedule has been so easy. The only team that they've beaten with a winning record have been the Ravens, twice. On the other hand, the Patriots embarrassed them, they somehow tied the woeful Panthers in Cincinnati, were shut out by the Colts, and were blown out by Cleveland. They're setting themselves up for the same narrative once again. They'll make the playoffs, then be a quick out as they beat the teams they're supposed to and get thrashed by the great teams.
The Cleveland Browns are thankful that Josh Gordon is back. They were 6-4 without him, but Gordon is the key for their offense to go from mediocre to pretty good. They used their improved offense this past weekend to win in the Georgia Dome against the Falcons. All roads to the Super Bowl seem to have to go through New England or Denver so they'll need an offensive weapon that can keep up with Brady and Manning. Gordon provides that spark.
The Dallas Cowboys are thankful that they didn't draft Johnny Manziel this past spring. He was there. The high flying Texas A&M phenom staying in state to play for the most prominent team and owner in the NFL. They would've won the offseason, but that's not what this team is trying to do. Instead they took offensive lineman Zack Martin, who has been an important part of Dallas' new found running game. It has put Dallas in a position to make a deep run in the playoffs, while Manziel continues to sit in Cleveland.
The Denver Broncos are thankful that John Elway is their owner. He realizes what his team needs, who is available that can help those needs, and acts without hesitation. Getting Peyton Manning a couple years ago was obviously a huge move, but this past offseason might have been even better. TJ Ward, Demarcus Ware, and Aqib Talib have all made the Denver defense much better than last year, and Emmanuel Sanders has predictably slid right in and outperformed Eric Decker, whom they lost to free agency.
The Detroit Lions are thankful that they don't use the college football ranking system in the NFL. If they did, the Lions would fail the eye test and margin of victory test terribly. Watching the Lions, they just don't look like a good team. They got blown out by the Panthers, lost to the Bills, put up six in a loss to Arizona, and looked like the mid-2000s Lions as they got blown out by the Patriots. Even when they win, they still do head scratching Lion like things.
The Green Bay Packers are thankful that Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback. I mean, not much else to say here. He's good.
The Houston Texans are thankful that defensive end JJ Watt is not a real human being. He's got to be some kind of machine, right? He has 9 1/2 sacks, two defensive TDs, two receiving TDs, and is disruptive to a game plan at all times. DeAndre Hopkins is the only Texans' wide receiver with more receiving TDs than Watt. He's a legitimate NFL MVP candidate and would probably win if Brady, Rodgers, and DeMarco Murray weren't having such good years.
The Indianapolis Colts are thankful that Ahmad Bradshaw was healthy this year. Obviously he just got injured a couple weeks ago, and I'm not sure the Colts sit at 7-4 without him. Trent Richardson, contrary to what I thought when they traded for him, just isn't working out in Indy. Enter Bradshaw who has rushed for eight less yards than Richardson, but also has received 37 less carries. He has the fourth most receptions on the team and the second most receiving TDs. It will be interesting to see how this offense does down the stretch without him.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are thankful that they have pieces in place. It might not seem like it because of their 1-10 record, but the Jags are close to becoming a decent team in this league, particularly offensively. Blake Bortles is a rookie doing rookie things, but should improve given his physical traits. Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson have both shown they can play in this league, though Robinson is done for the year. Denard Robinson has come out of nowhere and has gone from Michigan quarterback to bell cow back for this team. Don't sleep on this team in the near future.
The Kansas City Chiefs are thankful that their receivers are not selfish and/or outspoken. The Chiefs have a meager 13 passing TDs this year. Of those 13, zero have gone to a wide receiver. And they say the NFL has evolved into a passing league. At some point though, they're going to need some explosive plays in the passing game to make a deep run in the playoffs. Sunday Night's game against the Broncos in Arrowhead will be a good test to determine where both teams are.
The Miami Dolphins are thankful that Ryan Tannehill has been unleashed. It sounds funny to say, but Tannehill has actually started to play well now that the training wheels are off. He should shatter his season high for TD passes, he's cut down on his fumbles, and he's already topped his season high for total rushing yards with only 11 games played. The Dolphins sit at 6-5 after a hard fought loss in Denver and have key games against the Ravens in Week 14 and in New England in Week 15.
The Minnesota Vikings are thankful that their team still plays hard? Look, I'm stretching here as the Vikes have very little to be thankful for. They lost their star running back to suspension, Teddy Bridgewater hasn't been as good as advertised, their division is tough, and they have to play their games outside in the freezing cold of Minnesota instead of indoors. They played the Bears and Packers tough their last two games, but came out losers. They seem to at least be trying, but the skill gap is just too great. It will be interesting to see if Adrian Peterson ever wears the purple and gold again.
The New England Patriots are thankful that they just don't care. If Bill Belichick and Jay Cutler ever teamed up, they would be the best non-caring coach/QB combo in NFL history. People, including myself, pretty much wrote off the Patriots after their Week 4 meltdown in Kansas City. People were even calling for Jimmy Garoppolo to start over Tom Brady. Wouldn't you know that since Week 4, the Pats haven't lost a game and have looked like the best team in the NFL. If the demolition continues in Green Bay this weekend, I'm not sure how the Patriots aren't everyone's Super Bowl pick.
The New Orleans Saints are thankful that they have found a running game. Despite their 4-7 record, they're still in first place and can still secure a home playoff game. Without Mark Ingram finally playing like a first round draft pick, they might be in Tampa Bay territory record wise. Ingram has already topped his career rushing yardage and TD totals in only eight games. He was a big reason why the Saints got their first road win in forever this year as they fed him the ball 30 times in Carolina in Week 9. Dropping three straight at home was a head scratcher, but their running game could help them stay afloat in the weak NFC South.
The New York Giants are thankful that they drafted Odell Beckham Jr. Beckham's insane catch will probably be the highlight of the year, surrounded by moments of sadness and dread. Once Victor Cruz went down for the year, the Giants needed someone to make their offense respectable. Beckham filled that role nicely and has shown that he has some of the best hands in the game, even as a rookie. Giants fans might be the most thankful after the season, if Tom Coughlin and/or Eli Manning are run out of town.
The New York Jets are thankful that they have a quarterback controversy. If they didn't, no one would be talking about them this year. Instead, the media enjoys a good back and forth on whether Michael Vick or Geno Smith should be the starting QB. Personally, I think you could have both on the field at the same time, both with live footballs, and they still couldn't move the chains. Vick is past his prime and Geno just isn't good. A top 10 draft pick seems like a certainty for the Jets. Scholars will be forever puzzled how this team beat the Steelers in Week 10.
The Oakland Raiders are thankful that they're not the Jets. People stopped talking about the Raiders months ago and they actually won in their only prime time spot, beating the Chiefs 24-20 for their first and probably only win. People will pretty much forget about them unless they win or do something awesome. That's not the worst situation to be in. Also, they're making a strong push for the number one overall draft pick!
The Philadelphia Eagles are thankful that Chip Kelly's system is so quarterback friendly. Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez are names that shouldn't strike fear into the hearts of anyone, let alone NFL teams. Somehow, with those two signal callers, the Eagles are 8-3 with losses in San Fran, Arizona, and Green Bay. Not bad. Because of the pace at which the offense runs and the threat of LeSean McCoy getting the ball, it puts tremendous pressure on the defense and allows quarterbacks to thrive no matter who is back there. Their next three games (at Dallas, vs Seattle, vs Dallas) will tell us a lot about a Mark Sanchez-led offense moving forward, and should decide the NFC East.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are thankful that no one can cover Antonio Brown. Having him for fantasy football makes you realize how much they feed him the ball. Brown has a ridiculous 123 targets with 70 targets for Le'Veon Bell coming in second. He's in the top 10 in the NFL in receiving yards, TDs, and yards after catch. He's a significant reason why Big Ben has had such a good year and why this Steelers passing game is now feared by defenses.
The Saint Louis Rams are thankful that they know what they have with each of their quarterbacks. Sam Bradford just can't stay healthy and will likely be gone from the team either next year or in 2016 when he becomes a free agent. Austin Davis is a replacement level QB at best. Shaun Hill can get the job done, but won't take a team to the next level. The Rams are a fairly good team overall, but have been looking for answers at quarterback since Kurt Warner and have yet to find one. Maybe the 2015 draft will bring them good fortune.
The San Diego Chargers are thankful that they accumulated wins early in the season. Recently, the Chargers have looked bad. Weeks 7-9 saw three straight losses, capped off by a 37-0 drubbing at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. Their past two games have been won by a combined 10 points against the Raiders and Rams. Their upcoming schedule takes them to Baltimore, at home against New England and Denver, then to San Fran, and finishing up in Arrowhead. At 7-4 in the AFC West, they'll be lucky to make the playoffs.
The San Francisco 49ers are thankful that they have played through distractions. Their two most significant distractions were their decision to play Ray McDonald while a domestic violence investigation was ongoing against him, and the rumors that Jim Harbaugh had lost the locker room and was leaving after this year. No charges ended up being filed against McDonald, although at the time, I thought he should not have played simply because it looked bad for the organization. The Harbaugh rumors have died off pretty quickly as they now sit at 7-4 in a division they can still win. Their home and home with Seattle in the next three weeks could eliminate one of them from playoff contention.
The Seattle Seahawks are thankful that their home field advantage remains one of the best in the NFL. It lost some of its luster when the Broncos drove down the field at the end of regulation to force overtime in Week 3, and when Dallas actually beat the Seahawks in Week 6, but it's still not a pleasant place to play. They just smothered the division leading Arizona Cardinals at home and now get the Niners twice sandwiched around a game in Philly. The Seahawks need a great stretch run to secure at least one home home playoff game to have that thunderous crowd backing them.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are thankful that they play in the NFC South. You could really say that about any team in that division, but the Bucs are probably the ones that benefit the most. The glass half empty folks will say that they are losers and are only one game behind Oakland and Jacksonville for the number one overall pick in the draft. The glass half full folks will say that they're an up and coming team that are only two games out of first place in their division. Both are true. Go figure.
The Tennessee Titans are thankful that they drafted Zach Mettenberger. The Titans with Mettenberger are in the same boat as the Giants with his LSU teammate, Beckham. Both have lost seasons, but are at least giving their rookies valuable reps. At LSU, he had all the physical ability but would occasionally make awful decisions. This has carried over into the NFL, but can be fixed with time. He's certainly better than the other two QBs on the roster (Jake Locker and Charlie Whitehurst) and his sixth round draft selection makes him easy to part ways with if the experiment doesn't work out.
The Washington Redskins are thankful that Robert Griffin III only has one year left on his contract. It just hasn't worked out and the Redskins need to acknowledge that. I'm not sure he'll ever be as dynamic of a runner as he was in his rookie season. I've mentioned on my fantasy football articles that without the threat of his legs, RG3 is no more than an average passer in the NFL. I think his athleticism and skill that he showed his rookie year is what keeps Redskins fans wanting him to turn it around, but I doubt he will for the Redskins, or any other NFL team for that matter.
Matty O
Friday, November 14, 2014
When Does Injury Outweigh Potential?
What is Derrick Rose's lower body made of? Whether it's ankles, knees, and last night a hamstring, it seems that anytime he plays, he gets hurt. What's even more concerning is his style of play and the aggression he plays with. He goes 100% all the time, which is what makes him such a great player and gives Bulls' fans heart attacks whenever he drives the lane. The question now becomes whether the injury plagued Rose is really the franchise player that the Bulls had imagined.
When he's fully healthy, he's arguably the best point guard in the league. He's at least in the top three with Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook. Unfortunately, you can't turn injuries off like in a video game. His first three seasons went by without any notable injuries. Notable awards collected during that time were Rookie of the Year, MVP, and a couple All-Star games. Then came the 2011-12 season. He had toe, groin, and back injuries, but those were pretty minor. They caused him to miss time in the regular season, but the Bulls still finished four games ahead of the Miami Big 3 for the number one seed in the East. The general belief was the Bulls would advance to the Conference Finals and meet up with the winner of the Pacers-Heat series in the second round.
Then came the infamous ACL injury in the first game against the Sixers. The Bulls were far and away the better team on paper, but I think the loss of Rose rattled them the rest of the series as they lost 4-2 to the eighth seeded Sixers. Still, this didn't and shouldn't have deterred any Rose or Bulls supporters. Major injuries happen, but the core of the Bulls was still intact, Rose had a full offseason to heal, and they were going to come back bigger and badder than ever the next season. Oh, what could have been.
Instead, he missed the entire 2012-13 season, only to come back during the 2013-14 campaign and tear his meniscus. This is when people really started to become concerned. He would now have missed the better part of three seasons with injury problems and hadn't played in a playoff game since the spring of 2012. In the meantime, the Bulls had gone through a revolving door of point guards who, to their credit, played admirably, but not well enough to get them to the NBA Finals. This season when Rose is on the floor, you can almost feel the anxiety of everyone in the stands. Anytime he takes a step, you quietly wonder if this is it. Is this when the injury returns?
With that in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the Bulls' front office handles the next couple of off-seasons. On the one hand, you have a former MVP and a guy who could point guard a championship team...when he's healthy. On the other hand, you have a walking injury risk who is as likely to put up 25 points in one night as he is to miss 25 nights with one injury. He's signed through the 2016-17 season, which is when a serious decision will have to be made. Is it worth it to keep Derrick Rose?
The main appeal with Rose, apart from his play on the court, was that he was the hometown kid. He played high school ball at Simeon, unfortunately left for Memphis (could have used him down in Champaign for a year), then was drafted by the Bulls, who had a 1.7% chance of getting the number one overall pick. This seemed like the pick of destiny, just without Tenacious D. The excitement that was there early on, however, has seemed to wane. A lot of fans were turned off by comments made this past week about how he thinks about life after basketball, though I thought that got blown out of proportion. That was more a case of Rose not saying what he said how he should have said it. He's not getting paid to talk, he's getting paid to play and that really came out in those comments.
Without strong local support for Rose, what is keeping management from allowing him to walk in a couple years? Prior to this season, the city of Chicago essentially forgave him for sitting out an entire season. If the Bulls had acquired Russell Westbrook, a similar player but with no local ties, would the leash have been as long? I would argue no. So now, from a purely business perspective, I'm not sure it makes much sense to keep him.
You can certainly adjust contracts, particularly with guaranteed money and incentives (like games played/started), to make life easier on you financially. The problem is that players are less likely to take those kind of contracts, particularly with Rose who will still be under 30 years old when his contract is up. There's also the fact that you miss out on any superstar point guard that would be coming out of the draft as long as you have Rose. This is why the Colts made such a great decision with the whole Peyton Manning situation. They could have kept him coming off neck surgery and he probably still could have given them four or five more years of quality QB play. Just look at what he's doing in Denver. By re-signing Manning, however, they would also be passing on Andrew Luck.
While there are no guarantees, Luck looked like the best QB prospect to come out of college in a while. Luck could have doubled or even tripled the amount of good years he could give the Colts over how long Peyton could give them. I don't follow high school basketball that much, but there's a decent chance that an attractive one-and-done point guard option will be available in the next couple of years. So do you take that guy who could give you double digit seasons of production, or sign Rose to a three or four year deal where he gives you spectacular nights along with stretches of injured time away from the court? Obviously it will depend on what the coming draft classes look like, but I would argue for taking the young gun over re-signing Rose.
A philosophy that I have in fantasy football is that bench points don't count. Actually, that's not a philosophy, that's a fact. It doesn't matter if Tom Brady throws for 700 yards and Calvin Johnson catches 8 TD passes if they're on your bench. It doesn't count, those stats don't matter. While Rose can't score from the bench in real life, he can continue to collect money that could be going to someone that will actually play. He might have been a former MVP and he might be able to average over 20 points per game, but, like fantasy football bench stats, those things don't matter if you're in the trainer's room.
This year is critical for Rose's future in Chicago. He needs to prove that his health won't be a concern going forward, even though he's already had a couple scares this year. The Bulls will make the playoffs, with or without him, but the playoffs are where he needs to shine. If he can lead the Bulls deep into the playoffs, maybe with a berth in the NBA Finals, I believe he will be forgiven once again. Heck, if he wins the NBA Finals I know he will be forgiven and he could retire that day and go to all the graduations he wants to. Pain free! If not, he might be exiled by the fans that once embraced him as the Bulls continue to try and find the next Jordan.
Matty O
When he's fully healthy, he's arguably the best point guard in the league. He's at least in the top three with Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook. Unfortunately, you can't turn injuries off like in a video game. His first three seasons went by without any notable injuries. Notable awards collected during that time were Rookie of the Year, MVP, and a couple All-Star games. Then came the 2011-12 season. He had toe, groin, and back injuries, but those were pretty minor. They caused him to miss time in the regular season, but the Bulls still finished four games ahead of the Miami Big 3 for the number one seed in the East. The general belief was the Bulls would advance to the Conference Finals and meet up with the winner of the Pacers-Heat series in the second round.
Then came the infamous ACL injury in the first game against the Sixers. The Bulls were far and away the better team on paper, but I think the loss of Rose rattled them the rest of the series as they lost 4-2 to the eighth seeded Sixers. Still, this didn't and shouldn't have deterred any Rose or Bulls supporters. Major injuries happen, but the core of the Bulls was still intact, Rose had a full offseason to heal, and they were going to come back bigger and badder than ever the next season. Oh, what could have been.
Instead, he missed the entire 2012-13 season, only to come back during the 2013-14 campaign and tear his meniscus. This is when people really started to become concerned. He would now have missed the better part of three seasons with injury problems and hadn't played in a playoff game since the spring of 2012. In the meantime, the Bulls had gone through a revolving door of point guards who, to their credit, played admirably, but not well enough to get them to the NBA Finals. This season when Rose is on the floor, you can almost feel the anxiety of everyone in the stands. Anytime he takes a step, you quietly wonder if this is it. Is this when the injury returns?
With that in mind, it will be very interesting to see how the Bulls' front office handles the next couple of off-seasons. On the one hand, you have a former MVP and a guy who could point guard a championship team...when he's healthy. On the other hand, you have a walking injury risk who is as likely to put up 25 points in one night as he is to miss 25 nights with one injury. He's signed through the 2016-17 season, which is when a serious decision will have to be made. Is it worth it to keep Derrick Rose?
The main appeal with Rose, apart from his play on the court, was that he was the hometown kid. He played high school ball at Simeon, unfortunately left for Memphis (could have used him down in Champaign for a year), then was drafted by the Bulls, who had a 1.7% chance of getting the number one overall pick. This seemed like the pick of destiny, just without Tenacious D. The excitement that was there early on, however, has seemed to wane. A lot of fans were turned off by comments made this past week about how he thinks about life after basketball, though I thought that got blown out of proportion. That was more a case of Rose not saying what he said how he should have said it. He's not getting paid to talk, he's getting paid to play and that really came out in those comments.
Without strong local support for Rose, what is keeping management from allowing him to walk in a couple years? Prior to this season, the city of Chicago essentially forgave him for sitting out an entire season. If the Bulls had acquired Russell Westbrook, a similar player but with no local ties, would the leash have been as long? I would argue no. So now, from a purely business perspective, I'm not sure it makes much sense to keep him.
You can certainly adjust contracts, particularly with guaranteed money and incentives (like games played/started), to make life easier on you financially. The problem is that players are less likely to take those kind of contracts, particularly with Rose who will still be under 30 years old when his contract is up. There's also the fact that you miss out on any superstar point guard that would be coming out of the draft as long as you have Rose. This is why the Colts made such a great decision with the whole Peyton Manning situation. They could have kept him coming off neck surgery and he probably still could have given them four or five more years of quality QB play. Just look at what he's doing in Denver. By re-signing Manning, however, they would also be passing on Andrew Luck.
While there are no guarantees, Luck looked like the best QB prospect to come out of college in a while. Luck could have doubled or even tripled the amount of good years he could give the Colts over how long Peyton could give them. I don't follow high school basketball that much, but there's a decent chance that an attractive one-and-done point guard option will be available in the next couple of years. So do you take that guy who could give you double digit seasons of production, or sign Rose to a three or four year deal where he gives you spectacular nights along with stretches of injured time away from the court? Obviously it will depend on what the coming draft classes look like, but I would argue for taking the young gun over re-signing Rose.
A philosophy that I have in fantasy football is that bench points don't count. Actually, that's not a philosophy, that's a fact. It doesn't matter if Tom Brady throws for 700 yards and Calvin Johnson catches 8 TD passes if they're on your bench. It doesn't count, those stats don't matter. While Rose can't score from the bench in real life, he can continue to collect money that could be going to someone that will actually play. He might have been a former MVP and he might be able to average over 20 points per game, but, like fantasy football bench stats, those things don't matter if you're in the trainer's room.
This year is critical for Rose's future in Chicago. He needs to prove that his health won't be a concern going forward, even though he's already had a couple scares this year. The Bulls will make the playoffs, with or without him, but the playoffs are where he needs to shine. If he can lead the Bulls deep into the playoffs, maybe with a berth in the NBA Finals, I believe he will be forgiven once again. Heck, if he wins the NBA Finals I know he will be forgiven and he could retire that day and go to all the graduations he wants to. Pain free! If not, he might be exiled by the fans that once embraced him as the Bulls continue to try and find the next Jordan.
Matty O
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Fantasy Football: The Stretch Run
With a lot of league's playoffs starting in either Week 14 or Week 15, it's getting to be crunch time for a lot of fantasy teams. Whether you are on the cusp of getting into your playoffs or at the top, trying to secure a high seed and/or bye, you'll need to set yourself up for success. Weather, matchups, and injuries can all change the value of a player down the stretch, regardless of what they've done up to this point. This article will help you decide which players look favorable down the stretch and what to keep an eye out for.
Weather
Checking the weather before setting your lineups in the upcoming weeks isn't the worst idea in the world. Wind, rain, snow, and sleet are all headed to a lot of stadiums near you. The severity of it could effect your lineup decisions. A slight drizzle might not deter you, but blizzard conditions like in the Eagles-Lions game last year should. In that game there were eight touchdowns scored. Guess how many points both kickers had combined? Yep, zero. One extra point was attempted, only to be missed. That's how bad conditions were. Nick Foles threw for a whopping 179 yards with one TD and one pick. Not to be outdone, Matthew Stafford threw for 151 yards with zero TDs and zero picks.
Keep in mind that these were two teams, despite this game, that still finished in the top six in overall offense last year. Chances are you were pretty hyped to start Calvin Johnson, only to see him snatch three catches for 52 yards. While these conditions were extreme, they're not uncommon. I expect more than a few games this season to force people to make tough lineup decisions based on weather. While I don't expect weather to completely shut a player out, it will cap his upside. Instead of expecting a 180 yard, 2 TD ceiling, perhaps it now drops down to 60 yards and a TD. Based on what your team needs and how good your opponent is, will help you decide whether or not to put that person in your lineup.
Players Coming Back
Josh Gordon
He should be ready to rock right out of the gates. Cleveland's offense isn't setting the world on fire, but they are moving the football and have a favorable schedule moving forward. Gordon will likely get peppered with targets upon his return given that the Browns' receiving corps is not very good. During his suspension, he's still been allowed to train and workout at the Browns' facility, so he should still be in good shape. Back to back matchups in Buffalo and against Indy in Weeks 13 and 14 are the only speed bumps on the road to Gordon being a WR1 once again.
Kyle Rudolph
With the tight end position so thin this year, Rudolph is a guy that could be a nice pickup. He played decent to start the year before getting injured in Week 3. He returns to a tight end friendly offense, as evidenced by Chase Ford's decent stats in Rudolph's absence, and a new rookie QB who will utilize safety valves like Rudolph. There's a chance Adrian Peterson comes back this year, which will only help Rudolph even more. Not only will it open up the offense, but it will allow them to get more red zone opportunities, which is where Rudolph excels. If you've been streaming TEs this year, Rudolph might be your guy.
Adrian Peterson
Speaking of Peterson, rumor has it he might play this year. For that reason alone, he should be owned in all leagues, particularly by owners in need of a running back. Very rarely do you get a chance at a Pro-Bowl RB off the waiver wire. Obviously there's still a chance the NFL suspends him, but the Vikings' coaching staff and players say they are willing to welcome him back. If that happens, he'll immediately reclaim his starting RB job and be in the RB1 conversation. The only downside is that the Vikings' fantasy playoffs schedule is a gauntlet of tough run defenses. They get the Jets Week 14, at the Lions Week 15, then at Miami Week 16. Knowing the kind of player AP is though, I wouldn't be too concerned.
Montee Ball
Maybe I'm biased as a Ball owner in one of my leagues, but I think people have gotten way too low on Ball. I understand that his only good game came in Week 1, but I think that was mainly because of his emergency appendectomy. I thought it wouldn't be an issue at the time, but given that he lost a lot of weight since being injured, I do think it effected him and made him less agile. Now he'll be fully rested and gets to come back to a backfield that still hasn't been sorted out. Ronnie Hillman is now injured, and although CJ Anderson looked good last week, it was really the only time he has this year. Also, they were playing the Raiders, so there's that. Even if Ball doesn't get his starting gig back, realize that in Weeks 11-16 last year, he had a 5.8 yards per carry average and three TDs despite being the change of pace back to Knowshon Moreno. He still won't return RB1 value like he was drafted, but I think he could be a solid RB2 down the stretch.
Rashad Jennings
Jennings, who has been out since Week 5, comes into a much clearer backfield picture than Ball. Andre Williams, the next man up, did little to solidify his place in the Giants' backfield as he failed to top 59 yards since Jennings has been out and has only scored two TDs. As was the case when he was at Boston College, Williams still plays poorly in the passing game so Jennings should slide right back into his starting role. Williams might vulture a score here and there, but Jennings should see most of the work.
Ryan Mathews
Mathews returns to a backfield that looks like would be lost for a couple weeks, but now looks open for Mathews to return as the lead dog. Branden Oliver exploded onto the fantasy scene in Weeks 5 and 6, but has done very little since then. It's not entirely his fault as he faced Kansas City, Denver, and Miami. This leaves the door open for Mathews to resume his early down role with Oliver becoming more of a Danny Woodhead type than a full time back. The next two weeks present favorable matchups, but the playoff slate is not pretty. Week 13 is in Baltimore, in 14 they host New England, in 15 they host Denver, and if you're lucky enough to make it to Championship Weekend with Mathews, you'll be greeted by the San Francisco 49ers front seven. Ouch.
Players And Teams Are Who They Are
We're more than halfway through the season. By now, teams have established their identities and they are unlikely to change. Tom Brady had a rough start to the season, but it is clear that he is back to playing at a high level. Cam Newton had a lot of hype coming into this year, but it is clear, especially after last night's game, that he is no longer an elite or even start-able option at QB for fantasy. The Jets are elite against the run and the Packers are not so hot. Players can still put up a dud once in a while, but for the most part, you know what to expect from your stars and which matchups to be excited or worried about. Plan your lineups accordingly.
Handcuffs
Depth in fantasy football is really only for bye weeks. Once Week 12 is over, however, all teams will be at full strength the rest of the way. With that in mind, once the playoffs roll around, it is important to handcuff, or backup, your stars. For example, let's say you have DeMarco Murray as one of your RBs and your WRs are AJ Green, TY Hilton, Sammy Watkins, and Martavis Bryant. Depending on what your other needs are, it would make sense to drop Bryant for Murray's backup, Julius Randle, for the playoffs.
Bryant is a great player and will put up good numbers, but he won't put up significantly more than any of your other WRs. On the other hand, if you lose Murray and don't have his backup, you may be stuck with someone along the lines of James Starks. Rather than having Randle who is less talented than Murray, but would likely see around 20 touches a game, you'd now have Starks who is lucky to get five. A scenario where you keep both of them would be great, but I'd rather have the handcuff that would prevent a disaster at a position, than a talented player who racks up a lot of points...while sitting on my bench.
Favorable Matchups
Passing Games
Indianapolis Colts
As though you needed another reason to start any and all Colt offensive players. After this week against New England, their remaining schedule is a joke. Jacksonville, Washington, and Houston all come to Lucas Oil, while they go to Cleveland Week 14 and to Dallas in Week 16. With the way Andrew Luck is playing, I really don't think it matters what defense they're going up against. The Colts should feast down the stretch.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are a very close second for easiest stretch run. They have to go to Arizona this week and to New England next week, but then comes the cake walk. They get Chicago, Tampa, and Minnesota in the dome at Ford Field, then play Week 16 in Chicago. Barring a snowstorm in Chicago to end the year, nothing about that stretch should scare anyone. The Lions looked much sharper last week with Calvin Johnson back.
New York Giants
The Giants, similar to the Bears and Bengals, are extremely hard to trust on a week to week basis, but their remaining schedule is very soft. Their Week 12-16 schedule is Dallas, in Jacksonville, in Tennessee, Washington, and in St. Louis. This passing offense has shown flashes this season and Odell Beckham, Jr. has emerged into a legit WR1 option for Manning after Victor Cruz went down. If this no huddle passing offense gets clicking down the stretch, then it's very possible that Eli of House Manning could win some leagues this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Unfortunately they have a bye in Week 12, but their remaining schedule is fairly easy. After their bye, they get New Orleans at home away from the Superdome, at Cincy, at Atlanta, then against Kansas City. In Atlanta could be tricky as the Falcons are always a threat to put up a great performance in the Georgia Dome, but even the home fans might not be enough to derail Big Ben and his talented receiving corps.
New Orleans Saints
If Brees can take care of the ball, the Saints should excel in both fantasy and real life football down the stretch. The Saints are pretty much invincible at home (49ers got a lot of breaks this past Sunday) and the Saints get four more in the dome. In Pittsburgh will depend on which Steelers' D shows up, but in Chicago in Week 15 should be fine, even for Brees. Cincy, Baltimore, Carolina, and Atlanta all come to the 'Dome where the Saints passing offense should be able to move the ball at will.
Running Games
Cleveland Browns
The problem here is that no one knows who will be the go to RB any given week. One week it's Isaiah Crowell, the next it's Terrance West, then it's Ben Tate. If you're going to roll the dice with a committee, however, the Browns are a pretty good bet. They get Indy and Cincy at home in Weeks 14 and 15, then finish in Carolina for Championship Weekend. The Bengals and Panthers are in the top five for most fantasy points allowed to RBs while Indy sits at a not so intimidating 13th. Fire your Cleveland backs up and pray for the best.
Houston Texans
Championship Weekend against the Ravens won't be fun, but everything leading up to Week 16 will be. Cleveland, Cincy, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Indy are all next in line for Arian Foster to run over. As mentioned before in the handcuff section, it would be wise to pick up Alfred Blue as a Foster handcuff given his storied injury history. You'll want a Texans RB down the stretch.
Washington Redskins
Despite an easy schedule which includes the Rams, Giants, and Eagles in Weeks 14-16, this endorsement of their run game is entirely dependent on the health of RG3. Alfred Morris is a legit RB1 when RG3 has the threat to run the ball. When he's not there, Morris can still put up okay numbers, but they'll be more mid to low end RB2 numbers than ones that will win you a matchup.
Dallas Cowboys
A home and home with Philly, a trip to New York to face the Giants, a trip to Solider Field, and hosting the Colts should make DeMarco Murray owners very happy (although I'm sure they already are). Don't forget to handcuff with Joseph Randle as Murray's injury history is far from perfect.
New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions
As evidenced by these three teams making it into the favorable passing games section, the defenses they will be playing just aren't that good. At anything.
Kicking Game
Indianapolis Colts
The only time the Colts play outside the rest of the year is Week 14 in Cleveland.
Arizona Cardinals
The only time the Cards play outside the rest of the year is Week 12 in Seattle.
San Francisco 49ers
Three home games in San Fran, a trip to Oakland, then two toss up weather games in New York and in Seattle.
Houston Texans
In Cleveland this week, but then indoors the rest of the way except for a Week 14 trip to sunny Jacksonville.
San Diego Chargers
Home cooking down the stretch except for a Week 13 game in Baltimore, and a Week 16 matchup against fellow west coast-er San Fran.
St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite favorable weather matchups, you're not playing kickers on these pathetic offenses.
Good luck in your leagues down the stretch. While the matchups might be favorable, remember that the NFL is a week to week league and anything can happen. The Steelers had the matchup of all matchups going up against the terrible Jets secondary and they laid an egg this past Sunday. Expectations, however, should still be high for any player involved with the teams on this page. Watch the weather, play the matchups, and handcuff. Do that, and you'll put yourself in a good position to make a run in the playoffs.
Matty O
Keep in mind that these were two teams, despite this game, that still finished in the top six in overall offense last year. Chances are you were pretty hyped to start Calvin Johnson, only to see him snatch three catches for 52 yards. While these conditions were extreme, they're not uncommon. I expect more than a few games this season to force people to make tough lineup decisions based on weather. While I don't expect weather to completely shut a player out, it will cap his upside. Instead of expecting a 180 yard, 2 TD ceiling, perhaps it now drops down to 60 yards and a TD. Based on what your team needs and how good your opponent is, will help you decide whether or not to put that person in your lineup.
Players Coming Back
Josh Gordon
He should be ready to rock right out of the gates. Cleveland's offense isn't setting the world on fire, but they are moving the football and have a favorable schedule moving forward. Gordon will likely get peppered with targets upon his return given that the Browns' receiving corps is not very good. During his suspension, he's still been allowed to train and workout at the Browns' facility, so he should still be in good shape. Back to back matchups in Buffalo and against Indy in Weeks 13 and 14 are the only speed bumps on the road to Gordon being a WR1 once again.
Kyle Rudolph
With the tight end position so thin this year, Rudolph is a guy that could be a nice pickup. He played decent to start the year before getting injured in Week 3. He returns to a tight end friendly offense, as evidenced by Chase Ford's decent stats in Rudolph's absence, and a new rookie QB who will utilize safety valves like Rudolph. There's a chance Adrian Peterson comes back this year, which will only help Rudolph even more. Not only will it open up the offense, but it will allow them to get more red zone opportunities, which is where Rudolph excels. If you've been streaming TEs this year, Rudolph might be your guy.
Adrian Peterson
Speaking of Peterson, rumor has it he might play this year. For that reason alone, he should be owned in all leagues, particularly by owners in need of a running back. Very rarely do you get a chance at a Pro-Bowl RB off the waiver wire. Obviously there's still a chance the NFL suspends him, but the Vikings' coaching staff and players say they are willing to welcome him back. If that happens, he'll immediately reclaim his starting RB job and be in the RB1 conversation. The only downside is that the Vikings' fantasy playoffs schedule is a gauntlet of tough run defenses. They get the Jets Week 14, at the Lions Week 15, then at Miami Week 16. Knowing the kind of player AP is though, I wouldn't be too concerned.
Montee Ball
Maybe I'm biased as a Ball owner in one of my leagues, but I think people have gotten way too low on Ball. I understand that his only good game came in Week 1, but I think that was mainly because of his emergency appendectomy. I thought it wouldn't be an issue at the time, but given that he lost a lot of weight since being injured, I do think it effected him and made him less agile. Now he'll be fully rested and gets to come back to a backfield that still hasn't been sorted out. Ronnie Hillman is now injured, and although CJ Anderson looked good last week, it was really the only time he has this year. Also, they were playing the Raiders, so there's that. Even if Ball doesn't get his starting gig back, realize that in Weeks 11-16 last year, he had a 5.8 yards per carry average and three TDs despite being the change of pace back to Knowshon Moreno. He still won't return RB1 value like he was drafted, but I think he could be a solid RB2 down the stretch.
Rashad Jennings
Jennings, who has been out since Week 5, comes into a much clearer backfield picture than Ball. Andre Williams, the next man up, did little to solidify his place in the Giants' backfield as he failed to top 59 yards since Jennings has been out and has only scored two TDs. As was the case when he was at Boston College, Williams still plays poorly in the passing game so Jennings should slide right back into his starting role. Williams might vulture a score here and there, but Jennings should see most of the work.
Ryan Mathews
Mathews returns to a backfield that looks like would be lost for a couple weeks, but now looks open for Mathews to return as the lead dog. Branden Oliver exploded onto the fantasy scene in Weeks 5 and 6, but has done very little since then. It's not entirely his fault as he faced Kansas City, Denver, and Miami. This leaves the door open for Mathews to resume his early down role with Oliver becoming more of a Danny Woodhead type than a full time back. The next two weeks present favorable matchups, but the playoff slate is not pretty. Week 13 is in Baltimore, in 14 they host New England, in 15 they host Denver, and if you're lucky enough to make it to Championship Weekend with Mathews, you'll be greeted by the San Francisco 49ers front seven. Ouch.
Players And Teams Are Who They Are
We're more than halfway through the season. By now, teams have established their identities and they are unlikely to change. Tom Brady had a rough start to the season, but it is clear that he is back to playing at a high level. Cam Newton had a lot of hype coming into this year, but it is clear, especially after last night's game, that he is no longer an elite or even start-able option at QB for fantasy. The Jets are elite against the run and the Packers are not so hot. Players can still put up a dud once in a while, but for the most part, you know what to expect from your stars and which matchups to be excited or worried about. Plan your lineups accordingly.
Handcuffs
Depth in fantasy football is really only for bye weeks. Once Week 12 is over, however, all teams will be at full strength the rest of the way. With that in mind, once the playoffs roll around, it is important to handcuff, or backup, your stars. For example, let's say you have DeMarco Murray as one of your RBs and your WRs are AJ Green, TY Hilton, Sammy Watkins, and Martavis Bryant. Depending on what your other needs are, it would make sense to drop Bryant for Murray's backup, Julius Randle, for the playoffs.
Bryant is a great player and will put up good numbers, but he won't put up significantly more than any of your other WRs. On the other hand, if you lose Murray and don't have his backup, you may be stuck with someone along the lines of James Starks. Rather than having Randle who is less talented than Murray, but would likely see around 20 touches a game, you'd now have Starks who is lucky to get five. A scenario where you keep both of them would be great, but I'd rather have the handcuff that would prevent a disaster at a position, than a talented player who racks up a lot of points...while sitting on my bench.
Favorable Matchups
Passing Games
Indianapolis Colts
As though you needed another reason to start any and all Colt offensive players. After this week against New England, their remaining schedule is a joke. Jacksonville, Washington, and Houston all come to Lucas Oil, while they go to Cleveland Week 14 and to Dallas in Week 16. With the way Andrew Luck is playing, I really don't think it matters what defense they're going up against. The Colts should feast down the stretch.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are a very close second for easiest stretch run. They have to go to Arizona this week and to New England next week, but then comes the cake walk. They get Chicago, Tampa, and Minnesota in the dome at Ford Field, then play Week 16 in Chicago. Barring a snowstorm in Chicago to end the year, nothing about that stretch should scare anyone. The Lions looked much sharper last week with Calvin Johnson back.
New York Giants
The Giants, similar to the Bears and Bengals, are extremely hard to trust on a week to week basis, but their remaining schedule is very soft. Their Week 12-16 schedule is Dallas, in Jacksonville, in Tennessee, Washington, and in St. Louis. This passing offense has shown flashes this season and Odell Beckham, Jr. has emerged into a legit WR1 option for Manning after Victor Cruz went down. If this no huddle passing offense gets clicking down the stretch, then it's very possible that Eli of House Manning could win some leagues this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Unfortunately they have a bye in Week 12, but their remaining schedule is fairly easy. After their bye, they get New Orleans at home away from the Superdome, at Cincy, at Atlanta, then against Kansas City. In Atlanta could be tricky as the Falcons are always a threat to put up a great performance in the Georgia Dome, but even the home fans might not be enough to derail Big Ben and his talented receiving corps.
New Orleans Saints
If Brees can take care of the ball, the Saints should excel in both fantasy and real life football down the stretch. The Saints are pretty much invincible at home (49ers got a lot of breaks this past Sunday) and the Saints get four more in the dome. In Pittsburgh will depend on which Steelers' D shows up, but in Chicago in Week 15 should be fine, even for Brees. Cincy, Baltimore, Carolina, and Atlanta all come to the 'Dome where the Saints passing offense should be able to move the ball at will.
Running Games
Cleveland Browns
The problem here is that no one knows who will be the go to RB any given week. One week it's Isaiah Crowell, the next it's Terrance West, then it's Ben Tate. If you're going to roll the dice with a committee, however, the Browns are a pretty good bet. They get Indy and Cincy at home in Weeks 14 and 15, then finish in Carolina for Championship Weekend. The Bengals and Panthers are in the top five for most fantasy points allowed to RBs while Indy sits at a not so intimidating 13th. Fire your Cleveland backs up and pray for the best.
Houston Texans
Championship Weekend against the Ravens won't be fun, but everything leading up to Week 16 will be. Cleveland, Cincy, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Indy are all next in line for Arian Foster to run over. As mentioned before in the handcuff section, it would be wise to pick up Alfred Blue as a Foster handcuff given his storied injury history. You'll want a Texans RB down the stretch.
Washington Redskins
Despite an easy schedule which includes the Rams, Giants, and Eagles in Weeks 14-16, this endorsement of their run game is entirely dependent on the health of RG3. Alfred Morris is a legit RB1 when RG3 has the threat to run the ball. When he's not there, Morris can still put up okay numbers, but they'll be more mid to low end RB2 numbers than ones that will win you a matchup.
Dallas Cowboys
A home and home with Philly, a trip to New York to face the Giants, a trip to Solider Field, and hosting the Colts should make DeMarco Murray owners very happy (although I'm sure they already are). Don't forget to handcuff with Joseph Randle as Murray's injury history is far from perfect.
New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions
As evidenced by these three teams making it into the favorable passing games section, the defenses they will be playing just aren't that good. At anything.
Kicking Game
Indianapolis Colts
The only time the Colts play outside the rest of the year is Week 14 in Cleveland.
Arizona Cardinals
The only time the Cards play outside the rest of the year is Week 12 in Seattle.
San Francisco 49ers
Three home games in San Fran, a trip to Oakland, then two toss up weather games in New York and in Seattle.
Houston Texans
In Cleveland this week, but then indoors the rest of the way except for a Week 14 trip to sunny Jacksonville.
San Diego Chargers
Home cooking down the stretch except for a Week 13 game in Baltimore, and a Week 16 matchup against fellow west coast-er San Fran.
St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite favorable weather matchups, you're not playing kickers on these pathetic offenses.
Good luck in your leagues down the stretch. While the matchups might be favorable, remember that the NFL is a week to week league and anything can happen. The Steelers had the matchup of all matchups going up against the terrible Jets secondary and they laid an egg this past Sunday. Expectations, however, should still be high for any player involved with the teams on this page. Watch the weather, play the matchups, and handcuff. Do that, and you'll put yourself in a good position to make a run in the playoffs.
Matty O
Friday, October 17, 2014
Addition By Subtraction: How The Seahawks Became Better By Giving Up Their Biggest Name
Percy Harvin. Along with Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, Harvin is one of the three players that most people could probably identify on the Seattle Seahawks' offense. Heck, you might only know one or two of them. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, names don't make plays; players make plays. Harvin, who was acquired by the Seahawks from the Vikings in 2013, was traded today to the Jets for a conditional 2015 draft pick (2nd-4th round). I'm sure a fair amount of Seahawk fans will view this trade as puzzling, but this actually has the makings of a turning point move in a positive way for Seattle.
What Has He Contributed?
Seriously. What has he done? The excitement surrounding Harvin exploded in the opening game against the Packers as they essentially force fed him the ball leading to seven receptions for 59 yards, and four rushes for 41 yards. I watched that game and it seemed like he was in motion for a jet sweep or fake jet sweep on every other play. It seemed like they wanted to make a point about not being wrong by trading for him. Despite moving the chains in that game, he has done very little since.
Their second game was the Antonio Gates-Phillip Rivers show where the Chargers beat the Seahawks. Harvin advocates will point to his 51 yard TD run in the first quarter, although that run should not have even counted. For the rest of the game, Harvin pulled off a great disappearing act and registered one catch for exactly five yards. Harvin then put up an active stat line in the Denver game, but did very little to stand out. Lynch and Wilson were the two main catalysts on offense that day, particularly down the stretch.
Washington, their fourth game, saw multiple Harvin TDs called back. Tough break. Even tougher was the 27 total yards he put up. Then, this past weekend, he hit a new low. America's Team, the Dallas Cowboys, bottled up Harvin like no team has before. He had three catches for zero yards and three rushes for negative one yards. That means that me, sitting on my couch on Sunday, gained more yards than Harvin. I'm available for contract talks, NFL teams!
To summarize, that's 225 total yards and one TD that shouldn't have counted. And people still consider him one of the most dynamic and dangerous players in the league? Really?! By comparison, 31 year old Greg Jennings, the current WR1 in Minnesota has 268 total yards and one TD while having to deal with the QB trio of Matt Cassel, Christian Ponder, and Teddy Bridgewater. Yikes. His name may be feared league wide, but he's doing very little to justify anyone being scared of him.
Offensive Gameplan Issues
It's hard to blame Harvin in Seattle's wins, so let's take a look at their two losses. Harvin's three total touches in the San Diego game weren't the problem, it was the 10 total touches (six carries) by Lynch that was the issue. The same thing happened in the Dallas game as Lynch only received 11 total touches while Harvin received six for negative yardage. The Seahawks were in both of those games, so it's not like they were in comeback mode and needed to abandon the run. The problem was that this offense now relies on deception, which mostly consists of moving Harvin every which way, and Wilson's ability to make spectacular plays out of nothing. That's not the current generation Seahawks' style of football.
They are at their most dangerous when they are grounding and pounding teams into submission with Lynch. Wilson is at his best when the run game sets up play action. He's an extremely dynamic play maker, but as shown in the Dallas game, he is simply an okay QB if you contain him and force him to throw from the pocket. Apart from his nine yard TD scamper, he was basically a non factor as he was held to 126 yards, one interception, and 12 total rushing yards. Without the threat of a running game, the still not elite Dallas D shut down the Seattle offense.
Having a home run hitter like Harvin is great, so long as it is not a detriment to the team. With him gone, I think the Seahawks go back to a more smash mouth approach on the offensive side of the ball. This team doesn't need all that crazy deception, sweeps, and quick screens. Their mantra should be that we're going to run Lynch, you know that we're going to run Lynch, and have fun trying to stop him. They seem to have gotten away from that since Harvin came on board, particularly this year (he played hardly any offense, or football for that matter, last year).
Looking Ahead
The good news for Seattle fans is that they seem to have identified their mistake early and addressed it. Often times, in an effort to not be wrong about a player, teams will hang on for too long and ultimately wind up hurting their team in the short term and the long term. Not only will running Lynch help their offense, but it will swing the time of possession back in their favor, giving their defense some time to rest. San Diego possessed the ball for a ridiculous 42:15, while the Cowboys held the ball for 37:39. I don't care if you're the Legion of Boom, the '85 Bears, or the Steel Curtain, that time of possession is going to wear on you. Ball control needs to be priority number one for this offense rather than trying to make SportsCenter's Top 10.
As far as their schedule goes, this is the calm in between the storms. They've already faced four of the best teams in the NFL (Broncos, Packers, Cowboys, Chargers) and went 2-2. They get a four week reprieve until Week 11 when they may have the most daunting six game stretch in the history of football. They go to Arrowhead, have a home and home with Arizona, have a home and home with San Fran, and go to Philly the first weekend in December. They will need to have a running game established by then.
The last thing about this trade that should not go overlooked is the draft pick they acquired. It will be in the 2nd-4th round range and, recently, Seattle has had pretty good success there. Since 2007, the Seahawks have drafted Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant, Max Unger, Golden Tate, Walter Thurmond III, K. J. Wright, Bobby Wagner, and Russell Wilson in that pick range. Obviously there's no guarantee, but if I'm putting my money on a team to make the best pick for their team, regardless of the round, Seattle would have to be pretty high up there.
Despite the pedestrian numbers put up by Harvin so far, this was a bold move for Seattle. They gave him a big contract and traded away draft picks just to acquire him. Even though I pointed out that he doesn't fit the Seahawks' system, he is still an electric player in terms of raw speed and elusiveness. It's a bit odd that the Jets wanted Harvin as I doubt any one player in the entire league, no matter how talented, could turn that team around this year. Seattle, even with Harvin, was one of the best teams in the NFL, and I think they just got a bit better. If they make another deep run into the playoffs, expect this trade to stand out as one of the reasons why they remain a contender for the Super Bowl.
Matty O
What Has He Contributed?
Seriously. What has he done? The excitement surrounding Harvin exploded in the opening game against the Packers as they essentially force fed him the ball leading to seven receptions for 59 yards, and four rushes for 41 yards. I watched that game and it seemed like he was in motion for a jet sweep or fake jet sweep on every other play. It seemed like they wanted to make a point about not being wrong by trading for him. Despite moving the chains in that game, he has done very little since.
Their second game was the Antonio Gates-Phillip Rivers show where the Chargers beat the Seahawks. Harvin advocates will point to his 51 yard TD run in the first quarter, although that run should not have even counted. For the rest of the game, Harvin pulled off a great disappearing act and registered one catch for exactly five yards. Harvin then put up an active stat line in the Denver game, but did very little to stand out. Lynch and Wilson were the two main catalysts on offense that day, particularly down the stretch.
Washington, their fourth game, saw multiple Harvin TDs called back. Tough break. Even tougher was the 27 total yards he put up. Then, this past weekend, he hit a new low. America's Team, the Dallas Cowboys, bottled up Harvin like no team has before. He had three catches for zero yards and three rushes for negative one yards. That means that me, sitting on my couch on Sunday, gained more yards than Harvin. I'm available for contract talks, NFL teams!
To summarize, that's 225 total yards and one TD that shouldn't have counted. And people still consider him one of the most dynamic and dangerous players in the league? Really?! By comparison, 31 year old Greg Jennings, the current WR1 in Minnesota has 268 total yards and one TD while having to deal with the QB trio of Matt Cassel, Christian Ponder, and Teddy Bridgewater. Yikes. His name may be feared league wide, but he's doing very little to justify anyone being scared of him.
Offensive Gameplan Issues
It's hard to blame Harvin in Seattle's wins, so let's take a look at their two losses. Harvin's three total touches in the San Diego game weren't the problem, it was the 10 total touches (six carries) by Lynch that was the issue. The same thing happened in the Dallas game as Lynch only received 11 total touches while Harvin received six for negative yardage. The Seahawks were in both of those games, so it's not like they were in comeback mode and needed to abandon the run. The problem was that this offense now relies on deception, which mostly consists of moving Harvin every which way, and Wilson's ability to make spectacular plays out of nothing. That's not the current generation Seahawks' style of football.
They are at their most dangerous when they are grounding and pounding teams into submission with Lynch. Wilson is at his best when the run game sets up play action. He's an extremely dynamic play maker, but as shown in the Dallas game, he is simply an okay QB if you contain him and force him to throw from the pocket. Apart from his nine yard TD scamper, he was basically a non factor as he was held to 126 yards, one interception, and 12 total rushing yards. Without the threat of a running game, the still not elite Dallas D shut down the Seattle offense.
Having a home run hitter like Harvin is great, so long as it is not a detriment to the team. With him gone, I think the Seahawks go back to a more smash mouth approach on the offensive side of the ball. This team doesn't need all that crazy deception, sweeps, and quick screens. Their mantra should be that we're going to run Lynch, you know that we're going to run Lynch, and have fun trying to stop him. They seem to have gotten away from that since Harvin came on board, particularly this year (he played hardly any offense, or football for that matter, last year).
Looking Ahead
The good news for Seattle fans is that they seem to have identified their mistake early and addressed it. Often times, in an effort to not be wrong about a player, teams will hang on for too long and ultimately wind up hurting their team in the short term and the long term. Not only will running Lynch help their offense, but it will swing the time of possession back in their favor, giving their defense some time to rest. San Diego possessed the ball for a ridiculous 42:15, while the Cowboys held the ball for 37:39. I don't care if you're the Legion of Boom, the '85 Bears, or the Steel Curtain, that time of possession is going to wear on you. Ball control needs to be priority number one for this offense rather than trying to make SportsCenter's Top 10.
As far as their schedule goes, this is the calm in between the storms. They've already faced four of the best teams in the NFL (Broncos, Packers, Cowboys, Chargers) and went 2-2. They get a four week reprieve until Week 11 when they may have the most daunting six game stretch in the history of football. They go to Arrowhead, have a home and home with Arizona, have a home and home with San Fran, and go to Philly the first weekend in December. They will need to have a running game established by then.
The last thing about this trade that should not go overlooked is the draft pick they acquired. It will be in the 2nd-4th round range and, recently, Seattle has had pretty good success there. Since 2007, the Seahawks have drafted Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant, Max Unger, Golden Tate, Walter Thurmond III, K. J. Wright, Bobby Wagner, and Russell Wilson in that pick range. Obviously there's no guarantee, but if I'm putting my money on a team to make the best pick for their team, regardless of the round, Seattle would have to be pretty high up there.
Despite the pedestrian numbers put up by Harvin so far, this was a bold move for Seattle. They gave him a big contract and traded away draft picks just to acquire him. Even though I pointed out that he doesn't fit the Seahawks' system, he is still an electric player in terms of raw speed and elusiveness. It's a bit odd that the Jets wanted Harvin as I doubt any one player in the entire league, no matter how talented, could turn that team around this year. Seattle, even with Harvin, was one of the best teams in the NFL, and I think they just got a bit better. If they make another deep run into the playoffs, expect this trade to stand out as one of the reasons why they remain a contender for the Super Bowl.
Matty O
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Fantasy Football: Real Or Pretender
Ahmad Bradshaw, Allen Hurns, Delanie Walker. These are odd names to see in the top eight at their respective positions three weeks through the season. Yet here they sit ahead of names like LeSean McCoy, Dez Bryant, and Rob Gronkowski. The thing that owners need to decide is whether they stay ahead or equal to those big time names, or if this is just an early season oddity and they fall back into the fantasy abyss. This piece will try and help you decide if you should ride their numbers the rest of the year, or send that player back to the bench.
(Players who have benefited from a starter's absence, while doing little prior to said absence, with the starter returning, won't be on here. For instance, Knile Davis had a nice couple weeks, but Jamaal Charles will be the man once he's healthy, which is probably this week)
QB
Jay Cutler
Not too many QBs to talk about as most of them have either lived up to their hype or under performed, but Cutler is one that has certainly outplayed his draft position. He was being drafted outside the top 12 of QBs, meaning he wouldn't be a starter in most fantasy leagues, but sits at the number four spot among QBs after three weeks. Unfortunately for owners, you might not have even started him during his most productive week in San Francisco. You should probably start starting him no matter what. Mark Trestman's system is very QB friendly and, apart from Week 1 vs Buffalo, Cutler has looked surprisingly patient and isn't just slinging the ball wherever he feels like it. With the weapons he has along with the soft passing defense schedule the rest of the way, look for Cutler to hang around the top six QB area the rest of the way.
Verdict: Real
Blake Bortles
Obviously it's too early to decide on Bortles because he has yet to make a start, but just wanted to put him in here because I've been hyping him up and now he gets his chance. I said early in the season that if he played all 16 games, he would finish as a top 12 QB and I stand by that assertion. The Jags have a porous offensive line, but the weapons around Bortles actually aren't the worst in the world, especially once Marquise Lee gets healthy. Bortles is tall, strong, and is an above average runner. The Jags will be down most games because of their defense so Bortles will get a good number of pass attempts. He'll throw a fair share of interceptions, but also a good amount of TDs. I think he's really going to shock some people with how good he is.
RB
Rashad Jennings
Jennings had a low ranking in the preseason simply because of all the unknowns. No one knew how he would handle a full time load after backing up Darren McFadden. No one knew if rookie Andre Williams would be taking touches, particularly in the red zone, away from Jennings. No one knew if the Giants offense would improve from the disaster last year. Turns out Jennings can handle it, Williams is not taking his touches, and the Giants offense is much better than last year. He's clearly their workhorse back after receiving a whopping 34 carries last week, and sits at second in the NFL in number of carries. Two dates with Washington and matchups against Seattle and San Fran are tough, but all his others are cake walks. I'm not sure he keeps up a top five rate, but top 10 is well within reach.
Verdict: Real
Ahmad Bradshaw
Speaking of Giants running backs, Bradshaw looks like he used to in New York, showing power and surprising quickness. The one concern with Bradshaw was his injury history, but that hasn't been a problem so far. The opportunity was there because of the way Trent Richardson has played since his rookie year, and the Indy coaching staff is finally starting to realize that. The snap count is becoming closer to favoring Bradshaw, and even when he gets less opportunities, he still outperforms Richardson. Given Bradshaw's injury history, it's actually probably a good thing Richardson still gets some work since Bradshaw isn't volume dependent. His passing game and red zone usage are particularly encouraging and I don't see that stopping anytime soon with Richardson as his only competition for RB snaps.
Verdict: Real
Chris Ivory
Chances are, many of you drafted the wrong Chris. The popular belief in the offseason was that Chris Johnson was the Jets running back to own. Johnson went multiple rounds ahead of Ivory, but it will be Ivory that will finish multiple spots ahead of Johnson in the final rankings. At this point in his career, Johnson is a get what's blocked kind of runner who relies on his no longer world class speed to pick up yards. That is not, nor will it ever be, the kind of runner Rex Ryan wants for the Jets. Ivory might be a hair slower than Johnson, but he's a powerful runner who welcomes taking on defenders. Ivory has two more rushing TDs and 66 more rushing yards than Johnson, despite getting two less carries. The Jets will always be a ground and pound team and Ivory is a much better fit for that than Johnson.
Verdict: Real
Darren Sproles
Sproles has looked like a steal for the Philadelphia Eagles this season as he broke off a long run for a TD in their first game against Jacksonville, then dominated the Colts in Week 2. He's especially helpful in PPR leagues as he is second behind only Matt Forte in total receptions among RBs. While it's hard to go against anyone in an offense like Chip Kelly's, I do think Sproles will slow down. Last year, in another successful offense (Saints), Sproles started off like a man on fire, but cooled off greatly down the stretch. He's 31 years old and isn't getting any younger. It's also obvious that LeSean McCoy is still the feature back as Kelly gave McCoy 19 carries last week even though he gained only 22 yards. Sproles received two. His pass catching ability might save him a couple weeks in PPR, but in standard leagues, I think he becomes a waiver wire afterthought.
Verdict: Pretender
WR
Jeremy Maclin
Another Eagle. I actually liked Maclin more heading into 2013 before he had a season ending injury before the season even started. I was a bit more skeptical this year with him coming off of injury and with DeSean Jackson no longer there to draw defenses his way. So far, I've been dead wrong. He has a TD in each game so far this year and has benefited from Nick Foles' continuing progression as a QB. With McCoy, Sproles, and Zach Ertz also on the field, Maclin usually finds himself in favorable coverage. He's the unquestioned number one WR on one of the top three offenses in the league. He'll finish with WR1 numbers having been drafted as a FLEX or worse.
Verdict: Real
Kelvin Benjamin
Benjamin has looked the most impressive out of the rookie WRs despite having his backup for the first game, and a clearly not 100% Cam Newton this past Sunday night. In those two games, however, he's posted lines of 6-92-1 and 8-115-1. His only poor outing was a drop-filled performance against Detroit. The targets were there, but he had a "rookie" kind of day. The Panthers seem to be more pass oriented right now with Jonathan Stewart once again injured and with the read option essentially removed from the playbook for fear of having Cam exposed to big hits. The passing attack should continue to be a significant part of the offense going forward, and it only helps to have Atlanta's, New Orleans', and Tampa Bay's awful secondaries in your division.
Verdict: Real
Steve Smith, Sr.
I mentioned this in my Patience Or Panic piece yesterday, as it appears that Smith has become the number one guy on the Ravens. With Dennis Pitta now out for the year, more targets and receptions can be expected for Smith. I have to admit, I thought his time was up after last year and he would get lost in the depth chart behind Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones. Instead, he's surged ahead of both and seems to be Flacco's first look and safety valve all in one. Age is really the only knock people can make against him, but it's clear his skills are far from diminished.
Verdict: Real
Brian Quick
Some of you still might not know who he plays for, and that's understandable. He's part of the unknown or forgotten group of NFL players that make up the Rams' receiving corps. Fantasy owners, and PPR ones in particular, know him as the guy who put up back to back seven catch, 74+ yard games to start the year, then finally got his first TD last week while playing with a third string QB. The reason I can't buy into him is that the Rams still want to establish the run with Zac Stacy and they have played an incredibly easy three games in terms of pass defense. Minnesota is nothing scary, Tampa Bay got shredded by Matt Ryan and Derek Anderson, and Dallas is Dallas. There are other mouths to feed in that offense as well and Tavon Austin should be back after the Rams' bye. Quick will still outperform his draft position, but that isn't saying much. Maybe if you're in a bye week crunch you start him, but sit him otherwise. Also, San Fran (twice), Seattle, Patrick Peterson (twice), and Aqib Talib are still on the schedule, so there's that.
Verdict: Pretender
Allen Hurns
In his best week so far in the NFL, Hurns helped absolutely no one as he sat on the waiver wire. After going off for 110 yards and two TDs in the opening game, Hurns has come back down to Earth. He gained 13 yards in Week 2 and was only saved in Week 3 by a 63 yard TD in garbage time, which was his only catch of the game. Because of his monster Week 1 and fluky catch and run in Week 3, Hurns now sits in the top 10 for WRs. That won't last. Bortles will make this offense better, but not elite. Cecil Shorts, Allen Robinson, and a healthy Marquise Lee are all ahead of him on the depth chart and are all arguably better players. The only offense in the NFL I've seen that can sustain three true WRs are the Broncos, and the Jags are certainly not that.
Verdict: Pretender
TE
Martellus Bennett
The oft forgotten third piece in the passing game for the Bears offense, Bennett is coming off his best season as a pro in 2013 and has started strong out of the gates. He is currently second among TEs in receptions, 10th in yards, and second in TDs. With Marshall and Jeffery demanding extra attention and coverage on the outside, it opens up the middle for Bennett to thrive. He has a TD in every game this year and that should continue given his size and the Bears' lack of a run game. The only warning I'll give is he can produce some extreme duds from time to time. While 2013 was his best year, he did have six games with three catches or less and only had one TD the final nine games of last year after starting with four in the first seven.
Verdict: Real
Delanie Walker
Walker has emerged as the only consistent starting option on the entire Titans' team. He was lost for years behind Vernon Davis in San Fran, but actually had a fairly good season last year for the Titans. Unlike someone like Jason Witten who gets started for his name despite not posting stats, Walker gets benched because of his name, despite posting great stats. Remember folks, fantasy football is about the numbers, not the names. Walker has a 17-233-2 line heading into Week 4 and is tied for second in targets among all tight ends (only Jimmy Graham has more). There's some concern over Jake Locker's health, but I don't think it matters who is at QB. Walker should finish as a top 10 tight end.
Verdict: Real
Larry Donnell
No one knew what a Larry Donnell was until Monday Night in Week 1. The Giants stunk it up in Detroit that night, but Donnell was one of the bright spots. Manning found his lumbering tight end often, leading to a 5-56-1 line for the undrafted second year pro. He's yet to score a TD since then, but has given owners at least five receptions and 45 yards on the year, giving him added value in PPR leagues. Despite his early success, I think he fades. He's not the fastest of all guys and had his best games when Eli was under pressure basically from the snap (Detroit), and against Arizona, who is consistently terrible against tight ends. There's also the fact that Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle are still there, with Odell Beckham Jr. on the way to making his NFL debut. Beckham is someone who projects like a Brandin Cooks/Darren Sproles kind of guy who is quicker than he is fast and will be dependent on high receptions and high yards after catch. The Donnell targets will start going more to Beckham who can do more than Donnell with those targets. I'd sell high with Donnell.
Verdict: Pretender
Hopefully this helped to confirm or change your doubts about a player, giving you a better idea of whether or not you should keep starting these early bloomers. Remember, these are simply educated guesses and aren't certainties. Maybe Jay Cutler reverts to bad Cutler and throws 25 interceptions the rest of the way. Maybe Larry Donnell really is Eli's favorite target and finishes in the top five TEs. This was all based on stats, players coming back or getting injured, and a player's upcoming schedule. You're free to do what you want, but don't say I didn't warn you.
Matty O
Verdict: Real
Larry Donnell
No one knew what a Larry Donnell was until Monday Night in Week 1. The Giants stunk it up in Detroit that night, but Donnell was one of the bright spots. Manning found his lumbering tight end often, leading to a 5-56-1 line for the undrafted second year pro. He's yet to score a TD since then, but has given owners at least five receptions and 45 yards on the year, giving him added value in PPR leagues. Despite his early success, I think he fades. He's not the fastest of all guys and had his best games when Eli was under pressure basically from the snap (Detroit), and against Arizona, who is consistently terrible against tight ends. There's also the fact that Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle are still there, with Odell Beckham Jr. on the way to making his NFL debut. Beckham is someone who projects like a Brandin Cooks/Darren Sproles kind of guy who is quicker than he is fast and will be dependent on high receptions and high yards after catch. The Donnell targets will start going more to Beckham who can do more than Donnell with those targets. I'd sell high with Donnell.
Verdict: Pretender
Hopefully this helped to confirm or change your doubts about a player, giving you a better idea of whether or not you should keep starting these early bloomers. Remember, these are simply educated guesses and aren't certainties. Maybe Jay Cutler reverts to bad Cutler and throws 25 interceptions the rest of the way. Maybe Larry Donnell really is Eli's favorite target and finishes in the top five TEs. This was all based on stats, players coming back or getting injured, and a player's upcoming schedule. You're free to do what you want, but don't say I didn't warn you.
Matty O
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Fantasy Football: Patience Or Panic
Believe it or not, we're almost a quarter of the way done with the fantasy football season. Some owners may be looking at their rosters in disgust, wondering how they'll even win a game this year. Others will be brimming with confidence, fully expecting an undefeated season as they steamroll through their league. However you're feeling, it's important to remember that everyone's still in it, regardless of record. Having said that, it's important to recognize trends, whether they are based on injury or depth chart movement, that changes a player's value.
It's very easy to overreact to one bad performance, but sticking with a player who under performs the rest of the year when the warning signs were there early on, would be foolish. Speaking from personal experience, holding onto and starting players like Stevan Ridley and Victor Cruz last year probably sank your team. I'm not saying you should drop them, but trading them away or stashing them on the bench wouldn't be the dumbest of all ideas. Conversely, there are some players who might be struggling right now, but have enough upside to help you down the road. The following are some players who have head scratching numbers, and my advice on if owners should have patience or if they should panic. They'll be rated on a scale from 1-10 with 1 meaning owners should be the most patient, and 10 meaning owners should be having mini panic attacks.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers & Matthew Stafford
I put these two QBs together because they should give owners about the same level of panic and have similar reasons for being optimistic and concerned. Rodgers and Stafford currently sit 9th and 11th, respectively, in the QB ranks. Both have had one monster game (Week 2 for Rodgers, Week 1 for Stafford), one nightmare opponent (Rodgers in Seattle, Stafford in Carolina), and one head to head matchup that neither performed well in. There's still hope to be had here, however.
For starters, none of the passing defenses in the NFC North should scare anyone. The only difficult matchup remaining for Rodgers is hosting the Panthers and the only one for Stafford is in Arizona. They both have elite WRs and are in offenses that put an emphasis on throwing the ball. Rodgers has the stronger arm but a weaker offensive line, while Stafford has a better system but continues to make ill advised throws. I think both round into form and finish in the top five QBs this year.
Panic Scale: 1
Tom Brady
While Brady wasn't projected to set the world on fire this year, I don't think anyone saw this coming. Drafted as a starter in 10+ team leagues, Brady is squarely off the fantasy radar. Consider that Rams' QB Austin Davis has more points than Brady, and the QB leader Andrew Luck has more than doubled Brady's point output. What's more concerning is the soft schedule he's already faced (Miami, Minnesota, Oakland), and the fact that all his weapons are relatively healthy. Brady now has to go to Arrowhead on Monday Night, host the Bengals, and gets the Jets twice (Rex Ryan has historically done well against Brady). It will be very difficult to bet against Brady and the Pats, but this really is turning ugly. If this continues, you could find Brady on a lot of waiver wires later this year.
Panic Scale: 10
Running Back
LeSean McCoy
Similar to last year, the first ten or so RBs have failed to live up to the hype, whether it be because of injury (Charles, Foster, Martin), suspension (Peterson), or under performing (McCoy, Lacy). The good news for McCoy owners is that the Eagles play at such a frantic pace that it makes McCoy's floor extremely high. Obviously he put up a dud this week, but that's because the Redskins have an above average run defense and really sold out to stop McCoy, while the Eagles' wide receivers ran wild on them Sunday afternoon. Chip Kelly's offense is still run oriented and McCoy is still the workhorse in the backfield despite Darren Sproles' early surge. The one concern I do have is the Eagles' offensive line which is extremely banged up right now. He also still has San Fran, Arizona, Carolina, and Seattle left to face, but none of them have seen an offense like Chip's yet. There's a bit to worry about here, but I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.
Panic Scale: 3
Eddie Lacy
As mentioned above, Lacy is also struggling to give owners a return on investment. The preseason outlook looked great for Lacy as Rodgers was returning and there was talk in the preseason about the Pack wanting to run more so Rodgers didn't have to throw 200 times a game. Unfortunately, the numbers haven't been there as Lacy has 113 rushing yards and zero TDs in three games so far. By comparison, DeMarco Murray has posted better numbers than that in one game. Working in Lacy's favor when it comes to future success is the fact that the Pack have faced Seattle, the Jets, and Detroit. All three are notorious for stopping the run so a not so good outing is to be expected. Still, James Starks has taken some playing time away from Lacy and Lacy still gets to run against soft boxes, so better production should have been there by now. I'll keep the panic level relatively low right now, but if he has a bad outing this Sunday against a weak Bears' run defense, then it will be time to worry a lot.
Panic Scale: 5
Doug Martin
This might be a bit unfair because he has missed the past two games with an injury, but I've been trying to warn against drafting Martin for the past two years now. He's wildly inconsistent and for some reason is still highly regarded solely for his dominant performance in 2012 against the Raiders. Prior to getting injured in Week 1, Martin had nine yards on nine carries. A lot of you reading this are probably thinking you could get more than nine yards on nine carries and I'd be inclined to agree with you. Martin's backup, Bobby Rainey, put up great numbers in Week 2, and while he struggled in Week 3, so did everyone on the Bucs. Martin seems healthy, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucs go with some kind of rotation. They also still want to give targets to Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans. Even if he gets the lead back position, he'll give you more duds than good performances.
Panic Scale: 8
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen
The lack of TDs or even yards isn't really that concerning, since Allen's value mostly comes from high amounts of receptions. He's not getting those early on this season. The Chargers have emphasized the run, and when they do pass, Phillip Rivers has instead completed passes to the likes of Eddie Royal and Antonio Gates. Ironically, Allen actually had his best game so far against the Seattle secondary, but failed to take advantage of a nice Week 3 matchup in Buffalo. The targets are there, but the production isn't. The Chargers get an incredibly favorable run of horrible pass defenses the next three weeks (Jacksonville, the Jets, at Oakland) so better days should be ahead.
Panic Scale: 2
Demaryius Thomas
With Eric Decker out of town and Wes Welker suspended, things looked great for D-Thomas as targets should be flying his way. Owners were probably extremely bummed when those targets instead went the way of Emmanuel Sanders between the 20s and Julius Thomas in the red zone. Even in D-Thomas' most productive week, when he had five catches for 62 yards and a TD, he was still outperformed in PPR leagues by Emmanuel Sanders who put up an eight catch, 108 yard line. Wes Welker came back last week and Sanders once again outperformed Thomas badly. I'm not ready to declare Sanders the number one option on this team yet, but it's certainly getting close. Similar to LeSean McCoy, being on an explosive offense with Thomas' athleticism and history with Manning will get Thomas respectable lines. The problem is most people drafted him as a high end WR1, and he may only produce WR2 numbers.
Panic Scale: 4
Andre Johnson
Johnson retained his lofty position in fantasy drafts because, despite a new QB, Johnson had put up great numbers with bad QBs before. Similar to Thomas, however, another emerging WR may be to blame for Johnson's slow start. DeAndre Hopkins had an up and down 2013, but really seems to be clicking with new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Hopkins has 227 yards and three TDs in three games and is a solid WR2. Johnson, meanwhile, has yet to score a TD and hasn't posted a double digit game in standard scoring yet. While the TDs should come, I think there is legitimate concern that Hopkins is the Texans' WR to own. Unlike Thomas, Johnson isn't in an offense that will keep his floor high. The Texans emphasize the run, leaving Johnson to make the most of the few targets that come his way. So far, he hasn't.
Panic Scale: 6
Larry Fitzgerald
I mean, you had to see this coming. He struggled last year and has now, without a doubt, been surpassed by Michael Floyd in the pecking order. Carson Palmer isn't the worst QB in the league, but he's far from elite. Now with Drew Stanton at the helm, I don't see a turnaround coming for Fitz anytime soon. It's a shame because I like Fitz as a player and he stuck with the Cards through their laughably bad times. He gets a favorable stretch in the middle of the season, but faces Seattle down the stretch twice. I probably wouldn't drop him with bye weeks coming up, but he has become a desperation matchup play at best nowadays.
Panic Scale: 9
Torrey Smith
Like the other guys on this list, Smith's production has been cut into by another WR on his team. Steve Smith Sr., formerly Steve Smith no Sr. of the Carolina Panthers, has immediately contributed to the Ravens' passing game. Joe Flacco looks to him early and often, even when the game was on the line last week and they needed a big play to get into field goal range. Torrey Smith wasn't drafted as a WR1, but he wasn't drafted to be dropped either. He's slowly, but surely heading that way. The most concerning week was Week 1 when Flacco threw it an astounding 62 times and Torrey finished with three catches for 50 yards. Torrey was boom or bust to begin with, but now he might just be bust or bust.
Panic Scale: 10
Tight End
Jason Witten
Witten is probably still being started based on name alone. Popular perception might still be that the Cowboys are still a passing team, but surprisingly, the Boys seem to now be a run first team. Great for DeMarco Murray, but not so great for pass catchers not named Dez Bryant. Witten will still play a high number of snaps, but he'll be blocking much more than in years past which is something he can do quite well. He is also likely behind Murray and Dez for red zone touches. He has zero TDs, has yet to post 50 yards in a game, and has 10 total catches in three games. A few years ago, he'd put up 10 catches in three quarters. With the emergence of guys like Travis Kelce, Larry Donnell, and Delanie Walker, Witten might become a waiver wire occupant soon.
Panic Scale: 9
Hopefully this will help you in the coming weeks with start/sit decisions as well as with potential trades. Tune in tomorrow for my Real Or Pretender piece. It will be like this one, expect instead of disappointing starts, it will be surprisingly good starts and whether or not you can expect them to continue.
Matty O
It's very easy to overreact to one bad performance, but sticking with a player who under performs the rest of the year when the warning signs were there early on, would be foolish. Speaking from personal experience, holding onto and starting players like Stevan Ridley and Victor Cruz last year probably sank your team. I'm not saying you should drop them, but trading them away or stashing them on the bench wouldn't be the dumbest of all ideas. Conversely, there are some players who might be struggling right now, but have enough upside to help you down the road. The following are some players who have head scratching numbers, and my advice on if owners should have patience or if they should panic. They'll be rated on a scale from 1-10 with 1 meaning owners should be the most patient, and 10 meaning owners should be having mini panic attacks.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers & Matthew Stafford
I put these two QBs together because they should give owners about the same level of panic and have similar reasons for being optimistic and concerned. Rodgers and Stafford currently sit 9th and 11th, respectively, in the QB ranks. Both have had one monster game (Week 2 for Rodgers, Week 1 for Stafford), one nightmare opponent (Rodgers in Seattle, Stafford in Carolina), and one head to head matchup that neither performed well in. There's still hope to be had here, however.
For starters, none of the passing defenses in the NFC North should scare anyone. The only difficult matchup remaining for Rodgers is hosting the Panthers and the only one for Stafford is in Arizona. They both have elite WRs and are in offenses that put an emphasis on throwing the ball. Rodgers has the stronger arm but a weaker offensive line, while Stafford has a better system but continues to make ill advised throws. I think both round into form and finish in the top five QBs this year.
Panic Scale: 1
Tom Brady
While Brady wasn't projected to set the world on fire this year, I don't think anyone saw this coming. Drafted as a starter in 10+ team leagues, Brady is squarely off the fantasy radar. Consider that Rams' QB Austin Davis has more points than Brady, and the QB leader Andrew Luck has more than doubled Brady's point output. What's more concerning is the soft schedule he's already faced (Miami, Minnesota, Oakland), and the fact that all his weapons are relatively healthy. Brady now has to go to Arrowhead on Monday Night, host the Bengals, and gets the Jets twice (Rex Ryan has historically done well against Brady). It will be very difficult to bet against Brady and the Pats, but this really is turning ugly. If this continues, you could find Brady on a lot of waiver wires later this year.
Panic Scale: 10
Running Back
LeSean McCoy
Similar to last year, the first ten or so RBs have failed to live up to the hype, whether it be because of injury (Charles, Foster, Martin), suspension (Peterson), or under performing (McCoy, Lacy). The good news for McCoy owners is that the Eagles play at such a frantic pace that it makes McCoy's floor extremely high. Obviously he put up a dud this week, but that's because the Redskins have an above average run defense and really sold out to stop McCoy, while the Eagles' wide receivers ran wild on them Sunday afternoon. Chip Kelly's offense is still run oriented and McCoy is still the workhorse in the backfield despite Darren Sproles' early surge. The one concern I do have is the Eagles' offensive line which is extremely banged up right now. He also still has San Fran, Arizona, Carolina, and Seattle left to face, but none of them have seen an offense like Chip's yet. There's a bit to worry about here, but I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.
Panic Scale: 3
Eddie Lacy
As mentioned above, Lacy is also struggling to give owners a return on investment. The preseason outlook looked great for Lacy as Rodgers was returning and there was talk in the preseason about the Pack wanting to run more so Rodgers didn't have to throw 200 times a game. Unfortunately, the numbers haven't been there as Lacy has 113 rushing yards and zero TDs in three games so far. By comparison, DeMarco Murray has posted better numbers than that in one game. Working in Lacy's favor when it comes to future success is the fact that the Pack have faced Seattle, the Jets, and Detroit. All three are notorious for stopping the run so a not so good outing is to be expected. Still, James Starks has taken some playing time away from Lacy and Lacy still gets to run against soft boxes, so better production should have been there by now. I'll keep the panic level relatively low right now, but if he has a bad outing this Sunday against a weak Bears' run defense, then it will be time to worry a lot.
Panic Scale: 5
Doug Martin
This might be a bit unfair because he has missed the past two games with an injury, but I've been trying to warn against drafting Martin for the past two years now. He's wildly inconsistent and for some reason is still highly regarded solely for his dominant performance in 2012 against the Raiders. Prior to getting injured in Week 1, Martin had nine yards on nine carries. A lot of you reading this are probably thinking you could get more than nine yards on nine carries and I'd be inclined to agree with you. Martin's backup, Bobby Rainey, put up great numbers in Week 2, and while he struggled in Week 3, so did everyone on the Bucs. Martin seems healthy, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucs go with some kind of rotation. They also still want to give targets to Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans. Even if he gets the lead back position, he'll give you more duds than good performances.
Panic Scale: 8
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen
The lack of TDs or even yards isn't really that concerning, since Allen's value mostly comes from high amounts of receptions. He's not getting those early on this season. The Chargers have emphasized the run, and when they do pass, Phillip Rivers has instead completed passes to the likes of Eddie Royal and Antonio Gates. Ironically, Allen actually had his best game so far against the Seattle secondary, but failed to take advantage of a nice Week 3 matchup in Buffalo. The targets are there, but the production isn't. The Chargers get an incredibly favorable run of horrible pass defenses the next three weeks (Jacksonville, the Jets, at Oakland) so better days should be ahead.
Panic Scale: 2
Demaryius Thomas
With Eric Decker out of town and Wes Welker suspended, things looked great for D-Thomas as targets should be flying his way. Owners were probably extremely bummed when those targets instead went the way of Emmanuel Sanders between the 20s and Julius Thomas in the red zone. Even in D-Thomas' most productive week, when he had five catches for 62 yards and a TD, he was still outperformed in PPR leagues by Emmanuel Sanders who put up an eight catch, 108 yard line. Wes Welker came back last week and Sanders once again outperformed Thomas badly. I'm not ready to declare Sanders the number one option on this team yet, but it's certainly getting close. Similar to LeSean McCoy, being on an explosive offense with Thomas' athleticism and history with Manning will get Thomas respectable lines. The problem is most people drafted him as a high end WR1, and he may only produce WR2 numbers.
Panic Scale: 4
Andre Johnson
Johnson retained his lofty position in fantasy drafts because, despite a new QB, Johnson had put up great numbers with bad QBs before. Similar to Thomas, however, another emerging WR may be to blame for Johnson's slow start. DeAndre Hopkins had an up and down 2013, but really seems to be clicking with new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Hopkins has 227 yards and three TDs in three games and is a solid WR2. Johnson, meanwhile, has yet to score a TD and hasn't posted a double digit game in standard scoring yet. While the TDs should come, I think there is legitimate concern that Hopkins is the Texans' WR to own. Unlike Thomas, Johnson isn't in an offense that will keep his floor high. The Texans emphasize the run, leaving Johnson to make the most of the few targets that come his way. So far, he hasn't.
Panic Scale: 6
Larry Fitzgerald
I mean, you had to see this coming. He struggled last year and has now, without a doubt, been surpassed by Michael Floyd in the pecking order. Carson Palmer isn't the worst QB in the league, but he's far from elite. Now with Drew Stanton at the helm, I don't see a turnaround coming for Fitz anytime soon. It's a shame because I like Fitz as a player and he stuck with the Cards through their laughably bad times. He gets a favorable stretch in the middle of the season, but faces Seattle down the stretch twice. I probably wouldn't drop him with bye weeks coming up, but he has become a desperation matchup play at best nowadays.
Panic Scale: 9
Torrey Smith
Like the other guys on this list, Smith's production has been cut into by another WR on his team. Steve Smith Sr., formerly Steve Smith no Sr. of the Carolina Panthers, has immediately contributed to the Ravens' passing game. Joe Flacco looks to him early and often, even when the game was on the line last week and they needed a big play to get into field goal range. Torrey Smith wasn't drafted as a WR1, but he wasn't drafted to be dropped either. He's slowly, but surely heading that way. The most concerning week was Week 1 when Flacco threw it an astounding 62 times and Torrey finished with three catches for 50 yards. Torrey was boom or bust to begin with, but now he might just be bust or bust.
Panic Scale: 10
Tight End
Jason Witten
Witten is probably still being started based on name alone. Popular perception might still be that the Cowboys are still a passing team, but surprisingly, the Boys seem to now be a run first team. Great for DeMarco Murray, but not so great for pass catchers not named Dez Bryant. Witten will still play a high number of snaps, but he'll be blocking much more than in years past which is something he can do quite well. He is also likely behind Murray and Dez for red zone touches. He has zero TDs, has yet to post 50 yards in a game, and has 10 total catches in three games. A few years ago, he'd put up 10 catches in three quarters. With the emergence of guys like Travis Kelce, Larry Donnell, and Delanie Walker, Witten might become a waiver wire occupant soon.
Panic Scale: 9
Hopefully this will help you in the coming weeks with start/sit decisions as well as with potential trades. Tune in tomorrow for my Real Or Pretender piece. It will be like this one, expect instead of disappointing starts, it will be surprisingly good starts and whether or not you can expect them to continue.
Matty O
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