Participants
Indiana, LIU Brooklyn, James Madison, North Carolina State, Temple, UNLV, California, Syracuse, Montana, Butler, Bucknell, Marquette, Davidson, Illinois, Colorado, Miami (FL), Pacific
I'm going to be doing this region a bit differently, and you'll see why with my bold prediction, which is what I'll start with. After that, the rest will be Illini related, with the end offering some filling out your bracket advice.
Bold Prediction: There Will Be Zero Upsets
That includes the 8-9 game. That includes the Round of 32, Sweet 16, and Elite Eight matchups. The only two I can realistically see happening is Bucknell over Butler, Butler over Marquette in the Round of 32, and, hate to say it, but Colorado over the Illini. Thankfully, I don't think that will happen. Looking at all the second round matchups, I like all the top seeds. I actually think number eight North Carolina State is the most dangerous low seed in the second round, but they get a matchup with Indiana. They'll push the Hoosiers, but won't topple them. Syracuse's 2-3 zone will disrupt UNLV, but won't be able to handle the inside zone breaker of Cody Zeller, dishing the ball out to the likes of Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls. Miami's well rounded team will take them past the Illini and Golden Eagles to face off against Indiana. Victor Oladipo will prove to everyone why he's so highly touted in this game, as the Hoosiers will go on to the Final Four.
Difficulty of Region (1-10): 5
This is, in my opinion, the weakest region as a whole. As I've mentioned before, the two seed in this region, Miami, has already lost to a 15 seed in the field, Florida Gulf Coast. As the bold prediction tells you, I don't think highly of the lower seeds in this region. I think if NC State got a better draw, they could make a run, but going up against the top seed in the second round kills those dreams. Indiana certainly raises the difficulty level of this region, but apart from them, I really don't see any serious contenders.
My Case For The Illini
Alright, Illinois people. As hard as it is, I'm going to try and make a case for the Illini to make a run. The good, and frustrating, part about this team is that if they play like they can play, the Illini can knock off anyone, yes anyone, in the nation. Other teams can claim the same thing, but they would need their opponent to play down to their level. In the Illini's two biggest wins this year, at Gonzaga and against Indiana, I would argue that neither of those teams played poorly that game. We were tied with the Zags at halftime at 41. That's only 10 less points than we scored all game in our Big 10 tournament win over Minnesota. See, that's called playing down to your opponent. The Zag win was powered by 35 points from Brandon Paul. Is he going to do that every game? No, and very few college players could claim they can. But 16 points, 1 assist, and 3 turnovers (his line against Indiana in the Big 10 tourney) won't cut it.
In the Illini's first matchup with the Hoosiers, Indiana was clobbering us, leading 41-29 at half. I turned it off midway through the second half because I thought our goose was cooked (a timely text from a friend helped me to see the last 15 seconds). Indiana was by no means playing down to us. Illinois just turned it on in the second half, like they should be able to do every game, for the full game. They pulled that game out of the fire, and might be able to do so in the tournament. We don't have to be better than the best teams, we just have to be better than our opponent on that day.
Colorado in the first round is by no means easy. They actually have a better overall and conference record than we do. When comparing the schedule and conferences, it makes sense that we are ranked higher. They have some quality wins on their resume, including two wins over Pac-12 Champion Oregon and a win over Arizona (though it should have been 2). Still, I like our best against their best, and if the Illini's three point shooting heats up, and that's a big if, we should be able to handle the Buffs. Getting even greedier, let's take a look at the Miami matchup.
I'll admit it will take a LOT of luck for us to beat the Canes, but at least we didn't lose to Florida Gulf Coast. I think this will come down to Illinois' three point shooting vs Miami's presence inside. Although Shane Larkin is the star of that Miami team, they would be wise to exploit a relatively weak inside game from the Illini. This matchup actually seems to play into the Illini's hand. The three pointer is the Illini's thing and when they're dropping, we're putting up Ws. Coincidentally, in Miami's losses, their opponents have shot the three quite well. Wake Forest shot 58.3%, Duke shot 47.8%, and Georgia Tech shot 44.4%. I'd say the Illini are better than two out of three of those teams. If Illinois heats up from three, again, a big if, we could see a huge seven seed over two upset. "Could" being the key word.
Filling Out Your Bracket
1. Only use one bracket. I'm sick and tired of people entering five different brackets in five different pools. They'll have Indiana winning in one, Louisville in one, Georgetown in one, Gonzaga in one, and James Madison in one. Forget that. Be confident in your picks. South Dakota State to the Sweet 16? You better believe it. Wisconsin, Final Four? Absolutely. Don't try and diversify your bonds. This isn't Wu Tang Financial. Enter the same bracket for all your pools. Win or go home baby.
2. There's a first time for everything. So many analysts will post stats about a certain seed knocking off another seed X amount of times in the past 10 years. My response, who cares? This is 2013. Not 2010, not 2003. The teams and circumstances are different. Now that it is well known that 12 seeds often beat five seeds, people will simply pick the 12 for no rhyme or reason. They'll say, "Hey man, those 12 seeds always do well." Yes, they have done well. Past tense. Perhaps this year, zero 12 seeds win. Maybe all the 13 seeds win. If there is a legit reason to pick that upset, then by all means do so, but don't do it based on past statistics.
3. Tinker with your bracket. I used to be opposed to this, but after last year, my opinion has changed. Many people adopt a strategy of simply filling out their bracket, going with their gut, then not changing anything despite what the experts say. I did that last year, until the last day, and it won me my pool. My original champion was Missouri. Now before you go all crazy and wonder why I had Mizzou, recall how good they looked last year. They finished the year ranked #3 in the AP poll and had the best overall record in the Big 12 (Kansas had the better conference record so they won the Big 12 regular season title). They went on to win the Big 12 tournament and had wins in the regular season over Kansas, Baylor (beat them three times), and Texas. They were steamrolling into the tournament and were a trendy pick to reach the Final Four.
But then, after hearing so much about Kentucky, I finally bought into the hype. What happened? Well, Mizzou unceremoniously lost in the first round to Norfolk State, a 15 seed, while UK went on to win the title, and me some money. I would say tinker away. A lot of your picks will feel good, but there will always be four or five matchups you just don't feel good about. Even when I switched my pick to UK, I saw that potential Indiana or Duke matchup and was nervous. Thankfully they disposed of the Hoosiers and never even saw Duke. Change, change, change.
4. Expect anything. This sort of ties in with my first point about being confident in your picks. I bet the two people in the world who picked Norfolk State to beat Mizzou last year were ridiculed mercilessly...until after the game. As ridiculous as your picks might sound, the tournament itself will probably be even more ridiculous. I've already been scoffed at for my South Dakota State in the Sweet 16 pick. But is it any more ridiculous than two number 15 seeds winning in the first round? Is it any more ridiculous than a team that played a First Four game (VCU) making it all the way to the Final Four? I think not.
Well, that's it folks. Good luck in your pools and with your picks. Could this be the year a 16 beats a one? Possibly. Will the Big 10 perform phenomenally in this tourney? Yes. Were these breakdowns helpful? We'll see. Will this be the year I don't win my pool? No, probably not. Confidence people!
Matty O
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