Gonzaga, Southern, Pitt, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Ole Miss, Kansas State, Boise State/La Salle, Arizona, Belmont, New Mexico, Harvard, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Ohio State, Iona
Team That Will Overachieve: Arizona
Zona gets a bad rap and a lower seed due to their finish to the season. Despite a 14-0 start, they fell apart down the stretch and finished 25-7 and didn't even make the Pac-12 title game. That's the bad. The good news is all of their losses came in conference. The only time they would even see another Pac-12 team would be in the Final Four. Prior to conference play? This is a team that beat Florida, Miami, and San Diego State. They have future NBA draft pick Solomon Hill who can carry this team when his teammates have an off day. Their first round matchup is a bit scary with a decent Belmont team there, but if they get past that, they could make a run. Maybe I'm influenced too much by the history and prestige of Arizona basketball, but I believe this team could surprise some people.
Team That Will Underachieve: Kansas State
This is, in my opinion, the weakest team out of the top four seeds in each region. Sure they knocked off Florida earlier in the year, but they lost all their other significant games in a relatively weak Big 12. Michigan and Gonzaga blew them out earlier in the year. They lost all three of their matchups with Kansas, with the last two not even being that close. They split their season series with Oklahoma State, but lost when they visited Ames to Iowa State. They get a break by playing against a play in team in the first round, but Wisconsin or Ole Miss should dispatch of them in the second. If anything, Wisconsin should be the higher seed playing in a tougher conference and having actually won their big games (Ohio State, at Indiana, Michigan). I think Bruce Weber's team will make an early exit.
Bold Prediction: Wisconsin Will Win This Region
Yeah, you read that right. Going off of the above section, Wisconsin will probably not be tested until the Gonzaga matchup in the Sweet 16. Personally, I don't think the Zags are as dangerous as some believe and, as I mentioned in the Midwest breakdown, I think playing in the competitive Big 10 will help teams rather than hurt them. Gonzaga's West Coast Conference is a joke compared to the Big 10. If they can get by the Zags, who have already lost to a Big 10 team (Illinois), then they will most likely see familiar Big 10 foe Ohio State in the Elite Eight. Despite the three seed difference, Wisconsin has already blown them out once this year, and played them well the other two times, most recently in the Big 10 title game where OSU won 50-43. I actually think OSU has the harder road with potential matchups against a competitive Iowa State team and a matchup with my overachiever, Arizona. I believe Wisconsin will make it this far. OSU might get knocked off. That would make Wisconsin's Elite Eight game, and journey to the Final Four, even easier.
Difficulty of Region (1-10): 6
I gave this region a 6 because, although there are a few teams that could make a run, I don't really see a dominant team. The 6 is also due to the fact that I don't believe the Zags are all that anyways. It is an interesting region for me because I don't like the one seeded Zags or three seed New Mexico's chances, but I think teams like number six Arizona or number five Wisconsin could get the ball rolling and make a deep run in this region. I think this is the weakest region but could wind up being the most exciting.
Team Ranked 7th or Lower That Could Make A Run: Iowa State
Someone asked this question on Mike and Mike, so I thought I'd include it for these breakdowns. Realize these picks will be a stretch, but hey, it's March Madness.
The Cyclones are a tough team that have beaten Kansas State and Oklahoma State, as well as taken Kansas to OT twice this year. Their draw is what really hurts them as they face battle tested Notre Dame in the first round, only to potentially see Big 10 Champion Ohio State in the second. Still, if you're looking for that VCU or George Mason, this team could be it. They have six seniors on their team, which always seems to be the recipe for upsetting higher seeds in the tournament. A few lucky bounces here and there, and this team could make a Sweet 16 run.
Winner Of Region: Wisconsin
Yeah, maybe I do have a bit of a Big Ten bias (picked Michigan State to come out of the Midwest region), but you almost have to if you watched that conference's basketball this year. Why should I think that a Gonzaga team who has played no one can beat a control the pace Wisconsin team? A Big 10 vs Big 10 Elite Eight in this region, just means one more opportunity for the Badgers to even the score against the Buckeyes.
Upcoming Regional Breakdowns
Tuesday - South
Wednesday - East
Spoiler Alert: Wisconsin and Michigan State aren't the only Big 10 teams making the Final Four
Matty O
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