Kansas, Western Kentucky, North Carolina, Villanova, Virgina Commonwealth, Akron, Michigan, South Dakota State, UCLA, Minnesota, Florida, Northwestern State, San Diego State, Oklahoma, Georgetown, Florida Gulf Coast
Team That Will Overachieve: South Dakota State
Nate Wolters. Know him, watch him, love him if you love upsets. This SDSU team goes as he goes, but when he's on, this is one of the more dangerous lower seeded teams in the tournament. Wolters is a sure fire NBA draft pick in the upcoming draft. He averages 22.7 points per game and 5.8 assists per game while leading his team to a Summit League title. This team has shown how bad they can be without Wolters, when they lost by 24 to Minnesota earlier in the year. Just two weeks later, however, SDSU beat a now three seeded New Mexico team on the road, with Wolters dropping 28 points to go along with seven assists. This team reminds me a bit of the Davidson team in 2008. One star, NBA bound player (Stephen Curry in '08), on a low seeded team, going against the odds. Michigan and a VCU or Akron team stand in their way, but if I had to put my money on a 13 seed making the Sweet 16, this would be it.
Team That Will Underachieve: Kansas
I think that apart from a potential Indiana-North Carolina State second round matchup, Kansas will have the toughest test in the second round. Assuming UNC wins the 8-9 matchup, Kansas will have to deal with two young, but highly skilled players in PJ Hairston and James Michael McAdoo (possibly the best name in the tournament). They've had some growing pains this year, but when they're on their game, they can give anyone trouble. Their only bad losses were to Texas and Virginia this year, while Kansas' were to TCU and Baylor. Kansas' ceiling is obviously higher, but if they play down to the Tar Heels like they did to the TCU and Baylor, they could be gone in the round of 32. The Roy Williams factor will also add some intrigue to this game.
Villanova is going to be hit or miss. They've had some terrible losses against Providence and Seton Hall, yet they've beaten Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, and Syracuse, a one, two, three, and four seed, respectively. Unlike UNC, Kansas doesn't even have to play down to Nova's level, as they've proven that they can compete with the top teams in the country. If Nova has an off day, then it would be mighty helpful if the Jayhawks do as well. Don't be surprised if either of these teams springs the upset.
Bold Prediction: South Dakota State Makes The Sweet 16
I vaguely hinted at it in the above Overachieve section, but I'll make it official here. Two games is all it takes to get there. Two games, on one weekend, with a NBA pro on your team. Sometimes all you need is a player to get hot and Wolters can be that guy. I actually think their potential second round matchup against VCU will trouble them more than the Wolverines, but that's as far as they'll go as Kansas is too deep and will kill them inside with Jeff Withey, if it gets to that point. They're slowly becoming a "trendy" upset pick and for good reason. Those that take it a step further and place them in the Sweet 16 could get a nice payout for their bracket pool.
Difficulty of Region (1-10): 10
I believe this is the most difficult and deepest region. I've already discussed the 13 seeded Jackrabbits, as well as the Tar Heels and Nova, but even the 15 seeded Florida Gulf Coast team has already beaten a number two seed this year, Miami. That Georgetown game will be much closer than people think. Even though I have Kansas and Michigan on upset alert, they're still phenomenal basketball teams. Michigan has arguably the best 1-2 punch in the back court with Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. Kansas won the Big 12 title, led by Withey and Ben McLemore. Georgetown, Florida, and VCU have all proven their worth throughout the season. I could see any of those five teams coming out of this region.
Team Ranked 7th or Lower That Could Make A Run: South Dakota State
Winner Of Region: Georgetown
The Hoyas get my vote mainly because of the road they have to take to get to the Final Four. Florida Gulf Coast will test them, but I think they will prevail. Awaiting is either a 20-11 Oklahoma team or a 22-10 San Diego State team with a loss to Wyoming. I think they match up well against a potential Florida encounter and wouldn't have to face the top seeded Jayhawks until the Elite Eight. By then, as mentioned previously, Kansas might not even be there. I think the Final Four spot from the South is theirs to lose in a highly skilled and dangerous region.
Upcoming Regional Breakdowns
Wednesday - East
Matty O
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