Louisville, North Carolina A&T/Liberty, Colorado State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Oregon, St. Louis, New Mexico State, Memphis, Middle Tennessee/St. Mary's, Michigan State, Valparaiso, Creighton, Cincinnati, Duke, Albany
Team That Will Overachieve: Michigan State
State + Izzo seems to be the formula for a Final Four year in and year out. He has taken the Spartans to the Final Four six times, most recently in 2010 when they were a five seed. Now they are a three seed with a matchup against the winner of Memphis and one of the play in games awaiting in the second round (I don't consider the play-in games the first round). I believe that their conference schedule in the Big Ten will help them, and all the Big Ten teams, because they have been battle tested and are prepared for this tournament. They've beaten Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, and Kansas. They can definitely hang with the big boys and, in a beatable region, I think they could reach the Final Four again; possibly even the title game.
Team That Will Underachieve: Duke
This one could come back to bite me in the butt, but I'm not a believer in a deep Duke run this year. Brian Kelly certainly makes them much better as they have only lost once with him in the lineup. Another positive is Maryland is nowhere to be found, as the Terps beat them twice this year. Still, something about this team just doesn't seem title worthy. Down the stretch, they were average as they lost three of their last eight games, including an early exit in the ACC Tournament. They could possibly see a talented Creighton squad in the second round, or Sparty in the Sweet 16. Add in the debacle of last year that is still in their mind, and there's a recipe for a quick exit. Now that we know the 15/2 upset is possible in this day and age, don't think that they'll ease through the first round either against America East Conference Champion Albany.
Bold Prediction: Saint Louis Will Reach The Elite Eight
SLU won a competitive Atlantic 10 conference tournament by beating VCU. They have also picked up wins over Butler and New Mexico. Despite being from a "mid-major," SLU has been able to climb to #16 in the most recent rankings. They have been rolling down the stretch, winning 15 of their last 16 games. I think they'll take that momentum into the tournament and easily dispatch their first and second round opponents. Louisville will most likely be awaiting them in the Sweet 16, and I think with a little luck on their side, they can knock off the Cardinals. SLU doesn't beat themselves, plays sound defense, and focuses on the little things. A date with State will end their run, but a trip to the Elite Eight by a four seed from a mid major is nothing to sneeze at.
Difficulty of Region (1-10): 7
While this region has some powerhouses, it doesn't have a lot of depth. Even my bold prediction with SLU isn't really that bold, but I can't really justify any of the lower seeds in this region making a run. I wouldn't be surprised if any of the top four seeds (Duke, Louisville, SLU, or MSU) make it out of this region. I expect this region to go pretty much chalk. The only first round upsets I see looming are (11) St. Mary's over (6) Memphis (if St. Mary's wins their play in game) and (12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State. Other than that, I don't see much early drama in this region. With this top heavy region, making your selections should be fairly easy.
Winner Of Region: Michigan State
See above. State + Izzo = Final Four should be taught as a legitimate math equation in all Michigan schools.
Upcoming regional breakdowns
Monday - West
Tuesday - South
Wednesday - East
Matty O
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