R.I.P. My Bracket & Final Four Predictions

Warren Buffet, you had me at Dayton.

One game in and I was toast.  My dream of winning a billion dollars by making a few clicks on my computer were out the window.  Not only that, but the team they beat (Ohio State), I had reaching the Sweet 16.  Oh well, no perfect bracket but the rest looks pretty darn good.  Missed on Harvard and Pitt, but got my North Dakota State upset and my sleeper Elite 8 team, UConn, rallied to beat St. Joseph's on a drama filled day of the tournament.  Then came day two.

Baylor, a shot to the ribs.  Stanford, a left jab.  North Carolina, an uppercut on the chin.  Mercer, a shot below the belt.  Stephen F. Austin, the knockout blow.  Needless to say, my bracket was pretty beat up by the time the first round was over.  Still, I tried to look at the positives.  All four of my final four teams were intact (Michigan State, Florida, Creighton, and Louisville), my sleeper Elite 8 was still alive (UConn), and Kentucky, who I had beating Wichita State in the second round, survived.  All was not lost.

The next two days would only exasperate the problem.  NDSU loses.  Oregon blows a 12 point halftime lead in a game that probably would have made my bracket seeing how everyone and their mother took Wisconsin.  Kansas choked once again as a high seed.  Kentucky came through with the win over Wichita, but the same could not be said for Creighton who got blasted by Baylor 85-55.  As the first weekend came to a close, I was on the outside looking in.

Now, the Monday after the second weekend, my bracket shows a red line though three of my Final Four picks, and one of my National Title game participants (Louisville).  In their place is a UConn team I should have had winning one more round, a Kentucky team led by all starting freshmen, and a Wisconsin team that I probably should not have doubted so much.  As it stands, my title winner (Florida) is still standing, but the rest of it is a mess.

Surprisingly, the region that I thought was going to be the toughest to call was the one I did the best in.  The East region had a Virginia team I didn't believe in, a fully healthy Michigan State, a talented, but not-deserving-of-a-two-seed Villanova, a Shabazz-led UConn team, and a North Carolina team that could beat the best team one night, then lose to a last place team the next.  North Carolina ruined my upset pick, and Harvard pulled the upset I didn't pick.  Those two, along with the Regional Final UConn/MSU game, were the only ones I got wrong.  I thought that the Spartans' overall team would be able to overcome Shabazz Napier and UConn, but Napier was a man on a mission.

 Now there are only four teams remaining.  Shabazz and the Huskies, the Freshmen of Kentucky, the suddenly offensive Badgers, and the best overall team in the tournament, the Florida Gators.  Hopefully my Final Four predictions will go better than my first few rounds did.  

Florida vs UConn
Even though I tipped my hand of who I think will win this game a couple of sentences ago, I will say that I thought MSU was an all-around better team than UConn.  I still do.  It just wasn't the Spartans' day.  They out-rebounded the Huskies, shot a better field goal percentage, shot a better three point percentage, and got more assists.  So how did they lose again?  Turnovers and free throws.  16 Spartan turnovers compared to eight for UConn really hurt.  UConn's ability to make 21 of 22 free throws, including three crucial ones by Napier at the end of the game with UConn only up by two, also helped put the nail in MSU's coffin.  The point is that no matter the talent, if you are sloppy with the ball and the other team makes free throws, you'll be in a good position to lose the game.

Having said that, it's going to take a lot of turnovers to beat this Florida team.  Despite Dayton putting up a good fight, and Albany giving them an early scare, Florida has been able to win all of their games in the tournament by double digits.  Senior guard and leader?  Check.  Scottie Wilbekin.  A beast down low in the post?  Check.  Patric Young, who also happens to be a senior.  Experienced head coach?  Check.  Billy Donovan has a couple championship trophies to his name.  This team has been rolling and should continue to roll, even against a talented team like UConn.

The UConn fans will be quick to point out that the Huskies were actually the last ones to beat the Gators.  If they did it then, they can do it again right?  Well, not exactly.  That game was all the way back in early December played at UConn.  This game will be played in early April in Texas.  UConn needed a last second shot by Napier, and 16 Florida turnovers to pull off the upset win (Florida was #15 at the time, UConn #12).  Both teams have changed for the better since that game, and there certainly won't be any fear factor going on despite the disparity in tournament seeding.  That said, I think UConn hangs around as Napier wills his team to a close game.  They take Florida's best shots, keep getting up, until Florida lands the haymaker that floors them for good.

Florida - 65  UConn - 60

Kentucky vs Wisconsin
These are two teams that I feel took a while to find themselves.  Had this tournament been played in January, these two teams might have been out in the first round.  Kentucky's January saw them get zero wins against ranked teams, an overtime loss at Arkansas, and a loss at LSU.  Wisconsin's January got them two wins over ranked-at-the-time opponents in Illinois and Iowa, but also saw them drop the ball in Indiana, at home against Michigan where they never lose, in Minnesota, and capping it off with a home loss to Northwestern.  Yikes!  Thankfully for the two programs, they have turned it around since.

Wisconsin has only lost three times since that dreaded month, all to teams that made the tournament (Ohio State, at Nebraska, Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament).  Kentucky has had five losses since that month, but three of the five came against the Gators (beaten at home, routed in Gainsville, a one point loss in the SEC Championship game).  Despite that loss, I think they gained a lot of confidence as they now believed they could play with anyone in the country.  Their road to the Final Four was by far the hardest of any of the other three teams, and perhaps one of the toughest runs of all time.  They beat a pretty good Kansas State team, an undefeated Wichita State team, last year's National Champion Louisville, and last year's runner-up in Michigan.  Could they cap it off by beating a great Wisconsin team and potentially, the number one overall seed in Florida?  I think they come up short.

Kentucky has the athletes to hang with anybody, that goes without saying.  Julius Randle is a double-double machine, and despite Wisconsin having some good defenders down in the post, I think Randle picks up another double-double this Saturday.  Still, I think the balance of Wisconsin is what wins out.  Bo Ryan has admitted that his defense this year isn't as good as year's past, but it's still awfully good.  A down year for Wisconsin's defense is about as good as a lot of team's good years.  The difference between this team and other Wisconsin teams that Ryan has coached that have exited before the Final Four, is offense.

They can still grind out a win if need be, but now they can hang with other teams who can score.  Just ask Oregon.  Wisconsin hung 85 on the Ducks who tried to out pace the Badgers.  I wouldn't say it backfired on them because they put up 77 of their own, it's just that Wisconsin can make buckets to hang with that kind of offense nowadays.  Kentucky has that run and gun in them, although they are very effective in their half court sets as well.  I just think the Kentucky lack of experience finally catches up with them, as well as the gauntlet of teams that they have had to play.  Randle keeps them in the game late, but a few timely Wisconsin buckets put the Badgers into the title game.

Wisconsin - 73  Kentucky - 65

Matty O

2014 Regional Breakdown: Final Four

Florida vs Michigan State
This could be one for the ages.  As mentioned in my East article, I think Michigan State have the talent as a healthy team to have been a number one seed.  Florida has been dominant all year long and match up well with the Spartans.  If these two teams wind up facing each other, I think it could be the best game of the tournament.  It's really a toss up between these two things, but I think Florida will hit more shots when they need to as they knock off the Spartans in a classic.

Louisville vs Creighton
Unfortunately, I don't think this game is nearly as close or exciting.  My main reason for picking Creighton to come out of their region is because I just didn't see a serious threat to them until the Arizona game.  Had they been the three seed in the East for example, and North Carolina was waiting for them, I might have my doubts.  Doug McDermott will still put up points, but the overall talent of Louisville will eventually take over in the second half.  Louisville wins in a game that will be closer than the final score will indicate.

National Championship:  Florida vs Louisville
Louisville returns to the title game to try and win back to back titles, while Florida appears in the title game for the first time since winning back to back titles in 2006 and 2007.  This should be another great battle, but I think Florida's overall team beats out Louisville.  Louisville has a tendency at times to rely on Russ Smith a bit too much.  While he's a great player to rely on, I think it could cost them against an all around solid team like Florida.  Close but no cigar for Louisville, while Billy Donovan wins his third national title.

Matty O

2014 Regional Breakdown: East

Participants
Virginia, Coastal Carolina, Memphis, George Washington, Cincinnati, Harvard, Michigan State, Delaware, North Carolina, Providence, Iowa State, North Carolina Central, UConn, St. Joseph's, Villanova, UW-Milwaukee

Team That Will Overachieve:  Michigan State
It's more so "Team That Is Now A Whole Team."  State had numerous injuries throughout the year, which contributed to an up and down stretch from late January to early March.  Now, with all their stars healthy, they come roaring into the tournament after winning the Big 10 tourney including a 69-55 beat down of in-state rival Michigan.   Unlike Louisville, who I thought got seeded incorrectly, I think the four seed is the correct spot for this MSU team based on their body of work.  Had they been healthy the whole year, however, I think some of those Ls would be Ws and they would be a two or possibly even a one seed had they won the Big Ten regular season.  As it stands, they're a four and should breeze through the first weekend.  I'm not sold on Virginia, and I think the bottom half of the region is up for grabs.  Regardless, whether it's Iowa State, North Carolina, Villanova, or even UConn, I don't think the Spartans will be stopped as Tom Izzo will add another Final Four to his resume.

Team That Will Underachieve:  Virginia
Similar to Wichita State, UVA is a team that could win you or lose you your bracket pool.  The reason to be confident in them is that they've gone 16-1 since a loss to Duke in mid-January, they play great defense, and won the ACC regular season and tournament championships.  The reason to be concerned is that they have lost to Green Bay, were destroyed by Tennessee, and only had to play Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, and Pitt once each in the regular season.  They certainly don't have a rich basketball history, and I wonder if they have been tested enough.  While I have them advancing to the Sweet 16 to get knocked off by MSU, it certainly wouldn't shock me if they lost their second round game to Memphis.  They rely on tempo and defense, but don't put up points all that well.  One cold night shooting could be all it takes for an early exit.

Bold Prediction:  UConn Reaches The Elite 8
UConn got a great draw.  I think Villanova is the weakest of the two seeds and have them going out in the second round.  Many people think Iowa State will make the Sweet 16, but I think it will be closer than people think.  Providence is hot after winning the Big East Tournament, including a win over Creighton in the Championship game.  North Carolina has been the ultimate up and down team, but when they're on the up, they can beat anyone in the nation.  I wouldn't be surprised if one of those two teams were waiting to play UConn in the Sweet 16.  UConn's win/loss is not as impressive because they were bested three times by Louisville during the season.  Luckily, the only time they'll see them again this season would be in the title game.  Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright provide a great one two punch in the back court.  Look for them to make it to the Elite Eight, but fall to Sparty.

Difficulty of Region (1-10):  8
Honestly, I don't know what to make of this region.  The hype behind the Spartan train is building, but are too many people picking them now?  Is Virginia going to show the nation that their tempo can win a title?  What about North Carolina who has looked like the best team in the nation and a mid major school all in the same week?  Providence just won their conference tournament, yet enter as an 11 seed?  Harvard is also getting a lot of love to upset Cincinnati.  I think a lot of people will see a lot of red in this region when it's all said and done.  There's so much up in the air in this region that it's hard to say definitively who will win each game, much less who will make it to the Final Four.

Winner of Region:  Michigan State
Izzo and a healthy Spartan squad.

Matty O

2014 Regional Breakdown: West

Participants
Arizona, Weber State, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, North Dakota State, San Diego State, New Mexico State, Baylor, Nebraska, Creighton, Louisiana Lafayette, Oregon, BYU, Wisconsin, American

Team That Will Overachieve:  North Dakota State
5/12 upsets are common in the tournament, and Oklahoma is primed to be knocked off.  OU's signature wins came back in January when they beat Iowa State at home, won at Baylor, and beat Oklahoma State at home.  On the flip side, they were handled easily by Michigan State, lost both games to Kansas, lost to second to last place Texas Tech, and lost their first game in the Big 12 tournament to Baylor.  NDSU meanwhile, haven't lost since February 1st, beat Notre Dame, and are first in the nation in field goal percentage at 50.9%.  I think they beat an over seeded OU team.  Taking it a step further, I think they will also knock off San Diego State in the following round.  SDSU has the advantage in size, but as long as NDSU keeps up that field goal percentage, they should be fine.  I think they eventually lose out to the depth and athleticism of Arizona, but here's to the Bison making the Sweet 16.

Team That Will Underachieve:  Oklahoma State
I know it's crazy to say that a nine seed will underachieve, but I feel like the OSU train is building quite a bit of momentum.  Some are predicting OSU to make a deep run on the shoulders of Marcus Smart, but I don't see that happening.  Some see them knocking off Arizona in the second round.  I don't see that happening either because it will be Gonzaga, not OSU that will be facing Arizona.  Smart is a great player, and should turn into a solid role player for whoever picks him up in the NBA.  Despite this, the Cowboys have endured a seven game losing streak this year, and lost two of their last three games.  Their two signature wins came at home (vs Memphis, vs Kansas), but this game will be played in San Diego.  The Zags are an experienced bunch led by Kevin Pangos and Sam Dower.  I think they give the Cowboys trouble and knock them off, with this game likely being Smart's last in college.

Bold Prediction:  Oregon Joins NDSU in the Sweet 16
All it took was a rough stretch during January for everyone to forget how good this Ducks team is.  They were number 19 in the preseason polls and didn't lose until January 5th.  From then until February 16th, they went 3-7.  The thing is, most of those losses were within five points and all but two (Cal, Washington) came against teams in the tournament.  They lost by two to Stanford, four to Washington, two to UCLA, two to Arizona, and two to Arizona State.  Since then, they've beaten Arizona, and hadn't lost until the Pac-12 tournament when they fell to UCLA.  They should win their first game handily, then most likely face Wisconsin.  While Wisconsin has certainly improved offensively from past years, I think this team can be upset.  Oregon is a highly athletic and fast team, and a better version of Nebraska.  Wisconsin only got to face Nebraska once this year, and got beat by them a little over a week ago.  Wisconsin also does not have the greatest track record under Bo Ryan.  Despite getting high to middle seeds, the Badgers haven't made it to the Elite Eight since 2004-05, and have exited in the second round four times.  Consider this the fifth.

Difficulty of Region (1-10):  8
As shown by my Oregon and NDSU picks, I like this region's depth.  On top of those upsets, I have Nebraska knocking off Baylor and wouldn't be at all surprised if New Mexico State knocked off San Diego State.  Arizona and Creighton are a strong one and three seed, but I think the two and four are in trouble.  Oklahoma State could be the team that breaks my bracket, but I just don't think Marcus Smart will be enough, by himself, to take over this region and tournament.

Winner of Region:  Creighton
While I don't think Smart can, I do think that Doug McDermott can carry his Bluejays.  I might not have had this much confidence in them in prior years, but now that they are in the Big East, I think the regular season prepares them much better for a deep run in the tourney, and not just a one or two game flash in the pan.  They start four seniors and a junior so the experience is there.  I think they reach the Sweet 16 with ease where Oregon pushes them, but can't knock them off.  I'm not as high on Arizona this year as some other people are, mainly because their games start so late so I can't watch them, and the only time I did see them was in their Pac-12 Championship loss to UCLA.  I'm going to give Creighton the benefit of the doubt here and have them advancing to the Final Four.

Upcoming Regional Breakdowns
Wednesday - East & Final Four

Matty O

2014 Regional Breakdown: Midwest

Participants
Wichita State, Texas Southern/Cal Poly, Kentucky, Kansas State, Saint Louis, North Carolina State/Xavier, Louisville, Manhattan, UMass, Iowa/Tennessee, Duke, Mercer, Texas, Arizona State, Michigan, Wofford

Team That Will Overachieve:  Louisville
As you may have heard by now, there is a lot of disagreement over Louisville's seeding.  Many think that they deserved a higher seed, and I am one of those people.  They're the defending National Champion, have a Hall of Fame head coach, one of the best guards in the country in Russ Smith, and only have five losses (all of them came against teams that were ranked at the time).  While the American Athletic Conference was not as daunting as the old Big East, they were still able to dominate opponents, particularly this past weekend in the conference tournament, which they won.  They play aggressive defense and can put points on the board.  This team could easily make a run at back to back National Championships.

Team That Will Underachieve:  Wichita State
Wichita State will be the make or break team in everyone's bracket.  There are some who like their undefeated record, and others like myself, who don't believe their schedule tested them enough and they will fold in the tournament.  I think if they were in a different region they might make a nice run, but the Midwest is by far the toughest region.  Add in the fact that they will most likely play an extremely talented Kentucky team in the second round, and you have the recipe for a short run in the tournament.  Kentucky has beaten Louisville and most recently, lost against the number one team in the nation by one point.  While the Wildcats are inconsistent, I think if they put it together, they can knock off Wichita State.  I have the Shockers losing in the second round.

Bold Prediction:  Louisville will win all their games in this region by at least 10 points
As you can tell, I'm high on Louisville.  They have been thrashing opponents lately, and haven't won by less than 10 points since March 1st when they lost in Memphis.  This included games over a ranked SMU team and twice over a ranked UConn team.  I don't see a real suffocating defensive team that they would have to face, and Louisville's offense puts up points in bunches.  The bracket actually works out nicely for them as I think the only teams that would give Louisville trouble in this region would be Duke and the winner of the Iowa/Tennessee game.  Luckily Louisville won't see any of them until the Elite Eight, where I expect Michigan to be waiting instead of one of those three teams.

Difficulty of Region (1-10):  10
When the preseason number one team is an eight seed in your region, you know you're in trouble.  This region is loaded from top to bottom as I think the winner of the Iowa/Tennessee game will knock off UMass and then give Duke a real run for its money.  The 5-12 matchup could also get interesting particularly if NC State beats Xavier in the play in game.  Then you have an undefeated Wichita State, Duke, and the two teams that played for the National Championship last year.  Yikes!  Wichita State definitely drew the short straw amongst the one seeds.

Winner of Region:  Louisville
See above.  This team should be a number two seed, or a high three at worst.

Upcoming Regional Breakdowns
Tuesday - West
Wednesday - East & Final Four

Matty O

2014 Regional Breakdown: South

Participants
Florida, Albany/Mount St. Mary's, Colorado, Pittsburgh, VCU, Stephen F. Austin, UCLA, Tulsa, Syracuse, Western Michigan, Ohio State, Dayton, Kansas, Eastern Kentucky, New Mexico, Stanford

Team That Will Overachieve:  VCU
While I don't see a deep run for them, I don't see one from any of the other lower seeds.  VCU also finds itself going up against a two loss Stephen F. Austin team that hasn't lost since November 23rd.  Then, most likely, they'll have to go up against a UCLA team that finished second in the Pac-12 regular season, then won the Pac-12 tournament, capping it off with a 75-71 win over number one Arizona.  Still, I think Shaka Smart will have his team ready.  They've beaten Virginia and St. Louis this year and have tournament experience.  I see them making it to the Sweet 16, pushing Florida for a half, but eventually falling.

Team That Will Underachieve:  Syracuse
Man, what has happened with Syracuse lately?  After starting the season 25-0, which included wins over Duke, Pitt, Villanova, Baylor, and North Carolina, Syracuse has now lost five out of its last seven games including losses to Boston College, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina State.  This team certainly has the talent to go far led by C.J. Fair and Tyler Ennis, and when their 2-3 zone is clicking, it is next to impossible to run an effective offense against them.  This team, along with North Carolina, are the two hardest teams to figure out this year.  I'm going to bet on the bad, recent Syracuse showing up.  They might struggle in the first round against Western Michigan, but should still win.  The second round will be a different story, especially if Ohio State gets through.  I don't see this team making the Sweet 16, and certainly not the Final Four.

Bold Prediction:  No First Round Upsets
Upsets are what make the NCAA tournament exciting.  If that's the case, consider this round in this region boring.  While I have my doubts about Syracuse and concerns with VCU's matchup, I think all the higher seeds will prevail in their first games.  Ohio State and New Mexico might also be primed for an upset, but should be okay.

Difficulty of Region (1-10):  6
As mentioned in my Bold Prediction section, I don't see this region as being very deep.  I think the top two seeds in Florida and Kansas have the potential to win the National Title this year.  VCU, Syracuse, and UCLA are interesting 3-5 seeds, but I don't see any of them having a chance to reach the Final Four.  As the number one overall one seed, Florida certainly got a fairly easy road to the Final Four.

Winner of Region:  Florida
Florida has it all.  An experienced coach in Billy Donovan who has won back to back titles before, a big presence in the paint with 6'9", 240 pound Patric Young, and a talented guard in Scottie Wilbekin.  They have been absolutely rolling as of late and haven't lost since December 2nd by one point to UConn.  I think they make the Final Four rather easily and turn their sights to the National Championship game.

Upcoming Regional Breakdowns
Monday - Midwest
Tuesday - West
Wednesday - East & Final Four

Matty O