Arizona, Weber State, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, North Dakota State, San Diego State, New Mexico State, Baylor, Nebraska, Creighton, Louisiana Lafayette, Oregon, BYU, Wisconsin, American
Team That Will Overachieve: North Dakota State
5/12 upsets are common in the tournament, and Oklahoma is primed to be knocked off. OU's signature wins came back in January when they beat Iowa State at home, won at Baylor, and beat Oklahoma State at home. On the flip side, they were handled easily by Michigan State, lost both games to Kansas, lost to second to last place Texas Tech, and lost their first game in the Big 12 tournament to Baylor. NDSU meanwhile, haven't lost since February 1st, beat Notre Dame, and are first in the nation in field goal percentage at 50.9%. I think they beat an over seeded OU team. Taking it a step further, I think they will also knock off San Diego State in the following round. SDSU has the advantage in size, but as long as NDSU keeps up that field goal percentage, they should be fine. I think they eventually lose out to the depth and athleticism of Arizona, but here's to the Bison making the Sweet 16.
Team That Will Underachieve: Oklahoma State
I know it's crazy to say that a nine seed will underachieve, but I feel like the OSU train is building quite a bit of momentum. Some are predicting OSU to make a deep run on the shoulders of Marcus Smart, but I don't see that happening. Some see them knocking off Arizona in the second round. I don't see that happening either because it will be Gonzaga, not OSU that will be facing Arizona. Smart is a great player, and should turn into a solid role player for whoever picks him up in the NBA. Despite this, the Cowboys have endured a seven game losing streak this year, and lost two of their last three games. Their two signature wins came at home (vs Memphis, vs Kansas), but this game will be played in San Diego. The Zags are an experienced bunch led by Kevin Pangos and Sam Dower. I think they give the Cowboys trouble and knock them off, with this game likely being Smart's last in college.
Bold Prediction: Oregon Joins NDSU in the Sweet 16
All it took was a rough stretch during January for everyone to forget how good this Ducks team is. They were number 19 in the preseason polls and didn't lose until January 5th. From then until February 16th, they went 3-7. The thing is, most of those losses were within five points and all but two (Cal, Washington) came against teams in the tournament. They lost by two to Stanford, four to Washington, two to UCLA, two to Arizona, and two to Arizona State. Since then, they've beaten Arizona, and hadn't lost until the Pac-12 tournament when they fell to UCLA. They should win their first game handily, then most likely face Wisconsin. While Wisconsin has certainly improved offensively from past years, I think this team can be upset. Oregon is a highly athletic and fast team, and a better version of Nebraska. Wisconsin only got to face Nebraska once this year, and got beat by them a little over a week ago. Wisconsin also does not have the greatest track record under Bo Ryan. Despite getting high to middle seeds, the Badgers haven't made it to the Elite Eight since 2004-05, and have exited in the second round four times. Consider this the fifth.
Difficulty of Region (1-10): 8
As shown by my Oregon and NDSU picks, I like this region's depth. On top of those upsets, I have Nebraska knocking off Baylor and wouldn't be at all surprised if New Mexico State knocked off San Diego State. Arizona and Creighton are a strong one and three seed, but I think the two and four are in trouble. Oklahoma State could be the team that breaks my bracket, but I just don't think Marcus Smart will be enough, by himself, to take over this region and tournament.
Winner of Region: Creighton
While I don't think Smart can, I do think that Doug McDermott can carry his Bluejays. I might not have had this much confidence in them in prior years, but now that they are in the Big East, I think the regular season prepares them much better for a deep run in the tourney, and not just a one or two game flash in the pan. They start four seniors and a junior so the experience is there. I think they reach the Sweet 16 with ease where Oregon pushes them, but can't knock them off. I'm not as high on Arizona this year as some other people are, mainly because their games start so late so I can't watch them, and the only time I did see them was in their Pac-12 Championship loss to UCLA. I'm going to give Creighton the benefit of the doubt here and have them advancing to the Final Four.
Upcoming Regional Breakdowns
Wednesday - East & Final Four
Matty O
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