R.I.P. My Bracket & Final Four Predictions

Warren Buffet, you had me at Dayton.

One game in and I was toast.  My dream of winning a billion dollars by making a few clicks on my computer were out the window.  Not only that, but the team they beat (Ohio State), I had reaching the Sweet 16.  Oh well, no perfect bracket but the rest looks pretty darn good.  Missed on Harvard and Pitt, but got my North Dakota State upset and my sleeper Elite 8 team, UConn, rallied to beat St. Joseph's on a drama filled day of the tournament.  Then came day two.

Baylor, a shot to the ribs.  Stanford, a left jab.  North Carolina, an uppercut on the chin.  Mercer, a shot below the belt.  Stephen F. Austin, the knockout blow.  Needless to say, my bracket was pretty beat up by the time the first round was over.  Still, I tried to look at the positives.  All four of my final four teams were intact (Michigan State, Florida, Creighton, and Louisville), my sleeper Elite 8 was still alive (UConn), and Kentucky, who I had beating Wichita State in the second round, survived.  All was not lost.

The next two days would only exasperate the problem.  NDSU loses.  Oregon blows a 12 point halftime lead in a game that probably would have made my bracket seeing how everyone and their mother took Wisconsin.  Kansas choked once again as a high seed.  Kentucky came through with the win over Wichita, but the same could not be said for Creighton who got blasted by Baylor 85-55.  As the first weekend came to a close, I was on the outside looking in.

Now, the Monday after the second weekend, my bracket shows a red line though three of my Final Four picks, and one of my National Title game participants (Louisville).  In their place is a UConn team I should have had winning one more round, a Kentucky team led by all starting freshmen, and a Wisconsin team that I probably should not have doubted so much.  As it stands, my title winner (Florida) is still standing, but the rest of it is a mess.

Surprisingly, the region that I thought was going to be the toughest to call was the one I did the best in.  The East region had a Virginia team I didn't believe in, a fully healthy Michigan State, a talented, but not-deserving-of-a-two-seed Villanova, a Shabazz-led UConn team, and a North Carolina team that could beat the best team one night, then lose to a last place team the next.  North Carolina ruined my upset pick, and Harvard pulled the upset I didn't pick.  Those two, along with the Regional Final UConn/MSU game, were the only ones I got wrong.  I thought that the Spartans' overall team would be able to overcome Shabazz Napier and UConn, but Napier was a man on a mission.

 Now there are only four teams remaining.  Shabazz and the Huskies, the Freshmen of Kentucky, the suddenly offensive Badgers, and the best overall team in the tournament, the Florida Gators.  Hopefully my Final Four predictions will go better than my first few rounds did.  

Florida vs UConn
Even though I tipped my hand of who I think will win this game a couple of sentences ago, I will say that I thought MSU was an all-around better team than UConn.  I still do.  It just wasn't the Spartans' day.  They out-rebounded the Huskies, shot a better field goal percentage, shot a better three point percentage, and got more assists.  So how did they lose again?  Turnovers and free throws.  16 Spartan turnovers compared to eight for UConn really hurt.  UConn's ability to make 21 of 22 free throws, including three crucial ones by Napier at the end of the game with UConn only up by two, also helped put the nail in MSU's coffin.  The point is that no matter the talent, if you are sloppy with the ball and the other team makes free throws, you'll be in a good position to lose the game.

Having said that, it's going to take a lot of turnovers to beat this Florida team.  Despite Dayton putting up a good fight, and Albany giving them an early scare, Florida has been able to win all of their games in the tournament by double digits.  Senior guard and leader?  Check.  Scottie Wilbekin.  A beast down low in the post?  Check.  Patric Young, who also happens to be a senior.  Experienced head coach?  Check.  Billy Donovan has a couple championship trophies to his name.  This team has been rolling and should continue to roll, even against a talented team like UConn.

The UConn fans will be quick to point out that the Huskies were actually the last ones to beat the Gators.  If they did it then, they can do it again right?  Well, not exactly.  That game was all the way back in early December played at UConn.  This game will be played in early April in Texas.  UConn needed a last second shot by Napier, and 16 Florida turnovers to pull off the upset win (Florida was #15 at the time, UConn #12).  Both teams have changed for the better since that game, and there certainly won't be any fear factor going on despite the disparity in tournament seeding.  That said, I think UConn hangs around as Napier wills his team to a close game.  They take Florida's best shots, keep getting up, until Florida lands the haymaker that floors them for good.

Florida - 65  UConn - 60

Kentucky vs Wisconsin
These are two teams that I feel took a while to find themselves.  Had this tournament been played in January, these two teams might have been out in the first round.  Kentucky's January saw them get zero wins against ranked teams, an overtime loss at Arkansas, and a loss at LSU.  Wisconsin's January got them two wins over ranked-at-the-time opponents in Illinois and Iowa, but also saw them drop the ball in Indiana, at home against Michigan where they never lose, in Minnesota, and capping it off with a home loss to Northwestern.  Yikes!  Thankfully for the two programs, they have turned it around since.

Wisconsin has only lost three times since that dreaded month, all to teams that made the tournament (Ohio State, at Nebraska, Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament).  Kentucky has had five losses since that month, but three of the five came against the Gators (beaten at home, routed in Gainsville, a one point loss in the SEC Championship game).  Despite that loss, I think they gained a lot of confidence as they now believed they could play with anyone in the country.  Their road to the Final Four was by far the hardest of any of the other three teams, and perhaps one of the toughest runs of all time.  They beat a pretty good Kansas State team, an undefeated Wichita State team, last year's National Champion Louisville, and last year's runner-up in Michigan.  Could they cap it off by beating a great Wisconsin team and potentially, the number one overall seed in Florida?  I think they come up short.

Kentucky has the athletes to hang with anybody, that goes without saying.  Julius Randle is a double-double machine, and despite Wisconsin having some good defenders down in the post, I think Randle picks up another double-double this Saturday.  Still, I think the balance of Wisconsin is what wins out.  Bo Ryan has admitted that his defense this year isn't as good as year's past, but it's still awfully good.  A down year for Wisconsin's defense is about as good as a lot of team's good years.  The difference between this team and other Wisconsin teams that Ryan has coached that have exited before the Final Four, is offense.

They can still grind out a win if need be, but now they can hang with other teams who can score.  Just ask Oregon.  Wisconsin hung 85 on the Ducks who tried to out pace the Badgers.  I wouldn't say it backfired on them because they put up 77 of their own, it's just that Wisconsin can make buckets to hang with that kind of offense nowadays.  Kentucky has that run and gun in them, although they are very effective in their half court sets as well.  I just think the Kentucky lack of experience finally catches up with them, as well as the gauntlet of teams that they have had to play.  Randle keeps them in the game late, but a few timely Wisconsin buckets put the Badgers into the title game.

Wisconsin - 73  Kentucky - 65

Matty O