Virginia, Coastal Carolina, Memphis, George Washington, Cincinnati, Harvard, Michigan State, Delaware, North Carolina, Providence, Iowa State, North Carolina Central, UConn, St. Joseph's, Villanova, UW-Milwaukee
Team That Will Overachieve: Michigan State
It's more so "Team That Is Now A Whole Team." State had numerous injuries throughout the year, which contributed to an up and down stretch from late January to early March. Now, with all their stars healthy, they come roaring into the tournament after winning the Big 10 tourney including a 69-55 beat down of in-state rival Michigan. Unlike Louisville, who I thought got seeded incorrectly, I think the four seed is the correct spot for this MSU team based on their body of work. Had they been healthy the whole year, however, I think some of those Ls would be Ws and they would be a two or possibly even a one seed had they won the Big Ten regular season. As it stands, they're a four and should breeze through the first weekend. I'm not sold on Virginia, and I think the bottom half of the region is up for grabs. Regardless, whether it's Iowa State, North Carolina, Villanova, or even UConn, I don't think the Spartans will be stopped as Tom Izzo will add another Final Four to his resume.
Team That Will Underachieve: Virginia
Similar to Wichita State, UVA is a team that could win you or lose you your bracket pool. The reason to be confident in them is that they've gone 16-1 since a loss to Duke in mid-January, they play great defense, and won the ACC regular season and tournament championships. The reason to be concerned is that they have lost to Green Bay, were destroyed by Tennessee, and only had to play Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, and Pitt once each in the regular season. They certainly don't have a rich basketball history, and I wonder if they have been tested enough. While I have them advancing to the Sweet 16 to get knocked off by MSU, it certainly wouldn't shock me if they lost their second round game to Memphis. They rely on tempo and defense, but don't put up points all that well. One cold night shooting could be all it takes for an early exit.
Bold Prediction: UConn Reaches The Elite 8
UConn got a great draw. I think Villanova is the weakest of the two seeds and have them going out in the second round. Many people think Iowa State will make the Sweet 16, but I think it will be closer than people think. Providence is hot after winning the Big East Tournament, including a win over Creighton in the Championship game. North Carolina has been the ultimate up and down team, but when they're on the up, they can beat anyone in the nation. I wouldn't be surprised if one of those two teams were waiting to play UConn in the Sweet 16. UConn's win/loss is not as impressive because they were bested three times by Louisville during the season. Luckily, the only time they'll see them again this season would be in the title game. Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright provide a great one two punch in the back court. Look for them to make it to the Elite Eight, but fall to Sparty.
Difficulty of Region (1-10): 8
Honestly, I don't know what to make of this region. The hype behind the Spartan train is building, but are too many people picking them now? Is Virginia going to show the nation that their tempo can win a title? What about North Carolina who has looked like the best team in the nation and a mid major school all in the same week? Providence just won their conference tournament, yet enter as an 11 seed? Harvard is also getting a lot of love to upset Cincinnati. I think a lot of people will see a lot of red in this region when it's all said and done. There's so much up in the air in this region that it's hard to say definitively who will win each game, much less who will make it to the Final Four.
Winner of Region: Michigan State
Izzo and a healthy Spartan squad.
Matty O
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