Wichita State, Texas Southern/Cal Poly, Kentucky, Kansas State, Saint Louis, North Carolina State/Xavier, Louisville, Manhattan, UMass, Iowa/Tennessee, Duke, Mercer, Texas, Arizona State, Michigan, Wofford
Team That Will Overachieve: Louisville
As you may have heard by now, there is a lot of disagreement over Louisville's seeding. Many think that they deserved a higher seed, and I am one of those people. They're the defending National Champion, have a Hall of Fame head coach, one of the best guards in the country in Russ Smith, and only have five losses (all of them came against teams that were ranked at the time). While the American Athletic Conference was not as daunting as the old Big East, they were still able to dominate opponents, particularly this past weekend in the conference tournament, which they won. They play aggressive defense and can put points on the board. This team could easily make a run at back to back National Championships.
Team That Will Underachieve: Wichita State
Wichita State will be the make or break team in everyone's bracket. There are some who like their undefeated record, and others like myself, who don't believe their schedule tested them enough and they will fold in the tournament. I think if they were in a different region they might make a nice run, but the Midwest is by far the toughest region. Add in the fact that they will most likely play an extremely talented Kentucky team in the second round, and you have the recipe for a short run in the tournament. Kentucky has beaten Louisville and most recently, lost against the number one team in the nation by one point. While the Wildcats are inconsistent, I think if they put it together, they can knock off Wichita State. I have the Shockers losing in the second round.
Bold Prediction: Louisville will win all their games in this region by at least 10 points
As you can tell, I'm high on Louisville. They have been thrashing opponents lately, and haven't won by less than 10 points since March 1st when they lost in Memphis. This included games over a ranked SMU team and twice over a ranked UConn team. I don't see a real suffocating defensive team that they would have to face, and Louisville's offense puts up points in bunches. The bracket actually works out nicely for them as I think the only teams that would give Louisville trouble in this region would be Duke and the winner of the Iowa/Tennessee game. Luckily Louisville won't see any of them until the Elite Eight, where I expect Michigan to be waiting instead of one of those three teams.
Difficulty of Region (1-10): 10
When the preseason number one team is an eight seed in your region, you know you're in trouble. This region is loaded from top to bottom as I think the winner of the Iowa/Tennessee game will knock off UMass and then give Duke a real run for its money. The 5-12 matchup could also get interesting particularly if NC State beats Xavier in the play in game. Then you have an undefeated Wichita State, Duke, and the two teams that played for the National Championship last year. Yikes! Wichita State definitely drew the short straw amongst the one seeds.
Winner of Region: Louisville
See above. This team should be a number two seed, or a high three at worst.
Upcoming Regional Breakdowns
Tuesday - West
Wednesday - East & Final Four
Matty O
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