Where to start with the story lines for this one? Brother vs Brother. Ray Lewis in his last hurrah. Unknown backup quarterback Colin Kaepernick turning a defensive team into an offensive juggernaut. The 49ers with a chance to tie the record for most Super Bowls won as well as having never lost a Super Bowl they were in. The matchup, surprising as it is, presents a wide array of intriguing factors.
I Thought The Ravens Would Be In the Super Bowl When...
Well, this evening. When the clock struck 0:00, and not a second sooner with Tom Brady on the other side. I can honestly say that I did not see this coming and actually thought the Pats would blow out the Ravens. I thought the Ravens would handle Indy and rattle rookie QB Andrew Luck, which they did. The Broncos game was certainly an eye opener as they were able to win in double overtime, despite facing a Broncos team that had had the previous week off to rest and prepare. Then came a Patriots team that had averaged 35 points per game in the regular season and had just steamrolled a very talented Texans team the week before. Ray Lewis's motivation could only go so far, or so I thought.
The Ravens, a team that struggled mightily in the regular season on the road, (4-4, though the four wins were an ugly 9-6 game against the Chiefs, one against the Browns, by 3 against a Byron Leftwich led Steelers team, and by 3 in overtime to a struggling Chargers team) hung with the vaunted Patriots offense in the first half and pulled away in the second. Even when the score was 28-13, however, there was still a sense that Brady might be able to pull it off even with two minutes left. Heck, if anyone could do it, Brady was the guy. Instead, an emotional Lewis and a precise Joe Flacco led Ravens team are marching into New Orleans representing the AFC.
I Thought The 49ers Would Be In the Super Bowl When...
Well, right around here. This was when I bought into Kaepernick and realized he was a significant help to a 49ers offense that was really holding them back from being truly elite. Even though I thought they would face Seattle in the NFC Championship, they still got to the destination I believed they would. All of a sudden, this 49ers team that was known for its defense, is now a very formidable offensive team. They already hung 41 on the Packers in the divisional round, and racked up 28 on Atlanta in the Georgia Dome today. While I would not call either of those teams' defenses elite, it was still impressive to watch how easily Kap was able to dissect the defenses once he found his groove. They'll certainly face a greater test in the Super Bowl.
Ravens X-Factor - Vonta Leach
For those that don't know, Leach is the guy who has been clearing the way for Ray Rice the past two years, and previously was in Houston making Arian Foster a household name. Wherever he goes, good running backs tend to follow, and for good reason. He's an excellent blocker and reads plays well. He's also fairly good at catching balls out of the backfield for a fullback. It will be critical for the Ravens to control the tempo and establish the running game against an excellent 49ers defense. If you are one dimensional against that D, expect little to no success. If Leach can clear up some holes for Rice, not only will it help the running game, but it will also open up the play action pass allowing Flacco to bomb it deep to Torrey Smith for some big gains.
49ers X-Factor - LaMichael James
James, a former star running back at Oregon, does it all. He can run inside, outside, catch balls, and return kicks. In the NFC title game he had 3 returns for 64 yards, one catch for 4 yards, and 5 rushes for 34 yards and a score. He's a great compliment to Gore because James is much quicker and relies on speed rather than strength. The read option style attack that Kap now runs with the 49ers is very similar to the one he ran in his time at college, so he has been integrated into the offense seamlessly. His value as a kick returner allows the 49ers to start with great field position which will be crucial in the Super Bowl given the defenses of the two teams. I expect James to be integrated into the offense more going forward, and the Super Bowl would be a great place to have a breakout game. If the 49ers win, check out James's stat line. I bet it is outstanding.
Ravens Win If...Joe Flacco Protects The Ball
Flacco is an interesting QB. Since he came into the league, he has always been on the cusp of greatness. He's led his team deep into the playoffs, despite not putting up mind boggling numbers like the Aaron Rodgers and Tom Bradys of the world. I think some people use the "Mark Sanchez" excuse with Flacco, downgrading him because his defense is so good. It also helps to have Rice in the backfield with you. That being said, he has proved his worth and now is in the big game. The 49ers defense, however, is an active one with 25 takeaways this year, good for top 10 in the NFL. They swarm, wrap up, and tackle well. Flacco will be confronted with some make or break decisions this game because of the pressure San Fran will put on that offense. He needs to protect the ball and avoid giving the ball up, especially on their side of the field. In the AFC title game, he did not turn it over once. In the Ravens 6 losses this year, he had 10. Protect that ball Joe.
49ers Win If...Kaepernick Plays Like Kaepernick
He just needs to stay within himself. He is still in his second year and that start to the first half today was not the prettiest thing in the world. I'm not sure if he mounts the same comeback if they fall down to the Ravens. They need to continue to stick with the read option that has been working so well for them and trust Colin to make the right reads. While Lewis and the Ravens might be great at being in position, speed is speed and Colin has a lot of it. If he can find a seam, I think the age and wear and tear from the playoffs will show, and the Ravens won't be able to catch him. He has plenty of weapons in the passing game with Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Gore and James out of the backfield, and even Randy Moss. He needs to continue to have the confidence to make strong passes and trust his receivers to make a play. If he can do that, their offense should click like it has recently and they can rely on their defense to make the stops they need to.
John Harbaugh Could Have Lost The Season When...They Got Demolished By Houston
Defensive stars Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb got injured the week before in the Dallas game. Then, the Ravens go on the road and get absolutely destroyed by the Texans 43-13. They were probably the ugliest 5-2 team you could imagine. 4 of their 5 wins came by 7 points or less and they also lost to the Eagles, who turned out to be a bad team this year. Although the Bengals and Steelers were also struggling, it was anyone's division. After their bye week, they stormed out of the gates and won their next four games. Partly thanks to a Big Ben injury, the Ravens were able to take the division and advance to the playoffs. This was a team that was on the ropes and even struggled down the stretch, but John was able to keep the team together enough to get back the inspirational leader (Ray Lewis) of the team and lead them to the Super Bowl.
Jim Harbaugh Could Have Lost The Season When...He Stuck With Colin Kaepernick
Even though I finally came around to Kaepernick, I disagreed with the decision to stick with him. Say what you will about Alex Smith, he was having a pretty good year up to that point. They were 6-2 and had already beaten Green Bay in Lambeau, as well as division rivals Seattle and Arizona. Then, Smith gets hurt in the St. Louis game, and Kap comes in, plays well, and leads them to a...tie. But any quarterback can have a good game. Heck, Matt Flynn threw for 480 yards and six TDs about a year ago and spent all of this season warming the bench behind a rookie. Smith had the experience and, in my opinion, had earned his spot whenever he was well enough to come back. Harbaugh didn't see it that way and chose to go with the high flying, read option specialist Kaepernick. Imagine what happens if that doesn't work out. It very easily could have tanked.
Their next opponents were against Chicago, in the Superdome against the Saints, at St. Louis, Miami, then in New England and Seattle. If they start to slide, then you have a controversy of who to start. Then the offense has to shift back to a more conventional style with Alex Smith. Then you lose a few more games and throw Kap back in there because the fans are booing mercilessly. Then you're among a handful of other coaches unemployed at the end of the season. As it stands, Jim made the right, some might say risky, choice of sticking with his gut. Now we'll see if his gut can get them the Lombardi Trophy.
So Who Wins This Thing?
As much as I respect Ray Lewis for what he has brought to the game as well as effected people off the field, I got to give the edge to the 49ers. As I mentioned earlier, I think the speed of the 49ers will expose the Ravens, even Lewis as the game goes on. In close games like this, special teams always make a significant difference and you have to give the edge to the 49ers with James and Ted Ginn Jr. returning kicks and punts, respectively. Even with the defense of these two teams, I think it's a high scoring game with the 49ers winning 34-24. I would love for Ray to ride off into the sunset, but I think at the end of this game, it will be more so about the 49ers and their reemergence as a super power in the NFL. If Kap is indeed the solution, I expect multiple playoff appearances as well as Super Bowl appearances in the years to come.
Matty O
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Monday, January 7, 2013
What I Leanred During Bowl Season
There Are Way Too Many Bowls
I'm all for the little guys getting their chance to shine, but we can't let everyone into a bowl game, can we? Air Force, Iowa State, Duke, Minnesota, and Purdue all made bowl games and, due to their losses in their bowls, finished with a losing record. Teams like that do not and should not get a chance to display their "talents" in a bowl game. It's great for the sponsors, the conferences, and the teams, but at the end of the day someone needs to be left out. There were 35 bowl games this year, which I think is about 10 too many. It is as though we are rewarding mediocrity since a mere six wins makes a team bowl eligible nowadays. It's time the NCAA/BCS increases the qualifications to get into a bowl. This will make them more competitive, interesting to watch, and make the regular season more important.
Maybe The MAC Isn't That Good
Due to my ties to NIU, I've always been a MAC fan and supporter. Even though I think there are too many bowls nowadays, I've always been a fan of expansion because previously, the MAC only had two slots for bowl games when they usually had four or five quality teams. This year was horrendous though. The only wins were by Ohio (vs Louisiana Monroe) in a blowout and Central Michigan (vs Western Kentucky) by a mere three points. That was the good. The bad?
Kent State, a team I thought was pretty darn good, got held to 13 points and lost to Arkansas State 17-13. Toledo got destroyed by WAC member Utah State 41-15. Ball State fared a bit better against UCF, losing 38-17. Bowling Green suffered a similar fate when they lost to San Jose State 29-20. Then to top it all off, NIU gets beaten fairly easily by Florida State in the Orange Bowl. This is a conference that demands respect because they are competitive against Big Ten teams and can beat the lower tier ones. Well, no one really cares when schools from the WAC and Conference USA are destroying you in bowl games. And even though NIU played a big time team, I didn't really think they looked that good. I thought if all the bounces went their way, they could win. They pulled off a fake punt, on side kick, and forced a fumble when it was still 0-0 and still lost by 21. Even though 14 of FSU's points came in the 4th quarter, NIU never really looked in sync. MAC, time to step up your game if you want respect in college football.
Maybe the Big East Is That Good
The Big East has recently been thought of as a very weak conference, with questions over the worthiness of their inclusion in a BCS bowl. Well, they shut up all the naysayers, including myself, this bowl season. They did suffer two losses as Rutgers lost by three to Virginia Tech and Pitt got trounced by Ole Miss, but they showed up in the games that mattered. On top of a Cincinnati win over Duke, Syracuse destroyed West Virginia 38-14 at Yankee Stadium in the snow. Remember WVU was one of the top teams in the nation at one point and had Heisman runner Geno Smith at quarterback. In their statement game, Louisville, a severe underdog to Florida, had their way with the Gators as they dominated the game more than the 33-23 score suggests. Teddy Bridgewater had the Florida defense scrambling all night, and the Gators couldn't do enough on offense to keep up. The "Big Least" turned into the Big East as they proved that games are not won on paper.
Oregon Deserved A National Title Shot
Before the title game happened, I thought Oregon was more worthy of playing in the title game over both Alabama and Notre Dame, they just lost at the wrong time. Even after the Tide's demolishing of Notre Dame, I still think Oregon could beat both those teams. Oregon's offense was electric all season long, minus the Stanford game, and proved it once again against an extremely good Kansas State team. These two were on a collision course for the title game until they both lost on the same day with KSU going down to Baylor and Oregon losing in overtime to Stanford. That loss was not nearly as ugly as Alabama's loss to Texas A&M. Quite frankly, it was better than Notre Dame's win over Stanford earlier in the year.
The Ducks boasted an offense that had a quarterback in Marcus Mariota, running back Kenjon Barner, and speedy WR/RB/returner/anything De'Anthony Thomas with the ladder two being Heisman candidates at one point throughout the season. Thomas kept his bowl game mojo as he returned the opening kick for a TD and finished with 15 yards rushing, 60 yards receiving with a TD, and 120 kick return yards. And he only got 8 total touches! Their offense is an even better version of Texas A&M's, which steamrolled through Alabama's defense to the tune of 29 points and 418 yards. I think they would have put on a show against Alabama or shredded Notre Dame's defense. I still think they would have put up at least 40 on either team and won handily. We'll have to wait until next year's playoff when they can prove it, because I see them as a top 4 or 5 team next year as well.
Notre Dame Did Not Deserve A National Title Shot
It's easy to say this now that the title game went the way it did, but I felt this way prior to the result. As mentioned above, I thought Oregon deserved to be there against the SEC Champion. While Oregon was blowing people out, Notre Dame was struggling to beat Purdue, Pitt, BYU, Michigan, and Stanford. Speaking of Michigan, Notre Dame beat them by 7 while Alabama beat them by 27. Just saying, you had to think a blowout might be coming in the title game. Maybe it's an anti-Notre Dame bias, but I think they are unfairly ranked higher than they actually deserve. Not just this year, but any year. They seem to be rewarded by their history and mystique rather than what they have accomplished. I watched a fair amount of Irish, Tide, and Ducks games this year and from the eye test, it was clear that the Tide and Ducks were better than the Irish. I also thought Georgia was a better team than the Irish, and possibly the Tide even though they lost the SEC title game. The Irish season was phenomenal, no doubt, and they certainly deserved a BCS bowl game and a high ranking. I just think in terms of competition and chance to win the title, Oregon and perhaps Georgia were much more worthy.
The SEC Is The Best Conference, Hands Down
I've not been a fan of the SEC dominating the college football landscape like they have recently. Each year they win the title and brag about it, I'm always trying to find ways to make excuses/cases for why the Big Ten, Big 12, or Pac 12 is better. Well, no more. You win SEC. Alabama now has an established dynasty. Texas A&M comes to the SEC and finds its freshman, Heisman winning quarterback and arguably should have gone to a BCS bowl game. Georgia could have made a similar case as Florida did wind up making it to the Sugar Bowl. South Carolina was also able to join in on the fun as they made a New Year's Day bowl game with a defensive Heisman runner for next year in Jadeveon Clowney. Their players are bigger, faster, and stronger than any other place in the country. Honestly, if you're a high school recruit, why go anywhere else? This conference will continue winning as the loaded recruiting classes keep coming in, and the other power conferences will just turn into conferences. There will be only one true power conference, and that will be/is the SEC.
If My Predictions Were Correct, A Playoff Would Have Solved Everything
Although the NCAA will use a different type of rankings system next year, the matchups for this year based on BCS rankings would have been #4 Oregon vs #1 Notre Dame and #3 Florida vs #2 Alabama. One thing we know about the new system is they do allow for more than one team from the same conference to be amongst the teams in the playoffs. In my opinion, the winners would have been Oregon and Alabama, setting up the most competitive and worthy title game. Oregon would have won and been crowned the National Champion. The SEC streak would have ended and Florida would not have had to suffer the embarrassment of losing to Louisville. Notre Dame would still have gotten blown out, but at least not in the title game. The argument over a rightful national champion would be over! Maybe next year. Wait, definitely next year. As coach Jim Mora might ask, "Playoffs? You kiddin me?"
Matty O
I'm all for the little guys getting their chance to shine, but we can't let everyone into a bowl game, can we? Air Force, Iowa State, Duke, Minnesota, and Purdue all made bowl games and, due to their losses in their bowls, finished with a losing record. Teams like that do not and should not get a chance to display their "talents" in a bowl game. It's great for the sponsors, the conferences, and the teams, but at the end of the day someone needs to be left out. There were 35 bowl games this year, which I think is about 10 too many. It is as though we are rewarding mediocrity since a mere six wins makes a team bowl eligible nowadays. It's time the NCAA/BCS increases the qualifications to get into a bowl. This will make them more competitive, interesting to watch, and make the regular season more important.
Maybe The MAC Isn't That Good
Due to my ties to NIU, I've always been a MAC fan and supporter. Even though I think there are too many bowls nowadays, I've always been a fan of expansion because previously, the MAC only had two slots for bowl games when they usually had four or five quality teams. This year was horrendous though. The only wins were by Ohio (vs Louisiana Monroe) in a blowout and Central Michigan (vs Western Kentucky) by a mere three points. That was the good. The bad?
Kent State, a team I thought was pretty darn good, got held to 13 points and lost to Arkansas State 17-13. Toledo got destroyed by WAC member Utah State 41-15. Ball State fared a bit better against UCF, losing 38-17. Bowling Green suffered a similar fate when they lost to San Jose State 29-20. Then to top it all off, NIU gets beaten fairly easily by Florida State in the Orange Bowl. This is a conference that demands respect because they are competitive against Big Ten teams and can beat the lower tier ones. Well, no one really cares when schools from the WAC and Conference USA are destroying you in bowl games. And even though NIU played a big time team, I didn't really think they looked that good. I thought if all the bounces went their way, they could win. They pulled off a fake punt, on side kick, and forced a fumble when it was still 0-0 and still lost by 21. Even though 14 of FSU's points came in the 4th quarter, NIU never really looked in sync. MAC, time to step up your game if you want respect in college football.
Maybe the Big East Is That Good
The Big East has recently been thought of as a very weak conference, with questions over the worthiness of their inclusion in a BCS bowl. Well, they shut up all the naysayers, including myself, this bowl season. They did suffer two losses as Rutgers lost by three to Virginia Tech and Pitt got trounced by Ole Miss, but they showed up in the games that mattered. On top of a Cincinnati win over Duke, Syracuse destroyed West Virginia 38-14 at Yankee Stadium in the snow. Remember WVU was one of the top teams in the nation at one point and had Heisman runner Geno Smith at quarterback. In their statement game, Louisville, a severe underdog to Florida, had their way with the Gators as they dominated the game more than the 33-23 score suggests. Teddy Bridgewater had the Florida defense scrambling all night, and the Gators couldn't do enough on offense to keep up. The "Big Least" turned into the Big East as they proved that games are not won on paper.
Oregon Deserved A National Title Shot
Before the title game happened, I thought Oregon was more worthy of playing in the title game over both Alabama and Notre Dame, they just lost at the wrong time. Even after the Tide's demolishing of Notre Dame, I still think Oregon could beat both those teams. Oregon's offense was electric all season long, minus the Stanford game, and proved it once again against an extremely good Kansas State team. These two were on a collision course for the title game until they both lost on the same day with KSU going down to Baylor and Oregon losing in overtime to Stanford. That loss was not nearly as ugly as Alabama's loss to Texas A&M. Quite frankly, it was better than Notre Dame's win over Stanford earlier in the year.
The Ducks boasted an offense that had a quarterback in Marcus Mariota, running back Kenjon Barner, and speedy WR/RB/returner/anything De'Anthony Thomas with the ladder two being Heisman candidates at one point throughout the season. Thomas kept his bowl game mojo as he returned the opening kick for a TD and finished with 15 yards rushing, 60 yards receiving with a TD, and 120 kick return yards. And he only got 8 total touches! Their offense is an even better version of Texas A&M's, which steamrolled through Alabama's defense to the tune of 29 points and 418 yards. I think they would have put on a show against Alabama or shredded Notre Dame's defense. I still think they would have put up at least 40 on either team and won handily. We'll have to wait until next year's playoff when they can prove it, because I see them as a top 4 or 5 team next year as well.
Notre Dame Did Not Deserve A National Title Shot
It's easy to say this now that the title game went the way it did, but I felt this way prior to the result. As mentioned above, I thought Oregon deserved to be there against the SEC Champion. While Oregon was blowing people out, Notre Dame was struggling to beat Purdue, Pitt, BYU, Michigan, and Stanford. Speaking of Michigan, Notre Dame beat them by 7 while Alabama beat them by 27. Just saying, you had to think a blowout might be coming in the title game. Maybe it's an anti-Notre Dame bias, but I think they are unfairly ranked higher than they actually deserve. Not just this year, but any year. They seem to be rewarded by their history and mystique rather than what they have accomplished. I watched a fair amount of Irish, Tide, and Ducks games this year and from the eye test, it was clear that the Tide and Ducks were better than the Irish. I also thought Georgia was a better team than the Irish, and possibly the Tide even though they lost the SEC title game. The Irish season was phenomenal, no doubt, and they certainly deserved a BCS bowl game and a high ranking. I just think in terms of competition and chance to win the title, Oregon and perhaps Georgia were much more worthy.
The SEC Is The Best Conference, Hands Down
I've not been a fan of the SEC dominating the college football landscape like they have recently. Each year they win the title and brag about it, I'm always trying to find ways to make excuses/cases for why the Big Ten, Big 12, or Pac 12 is better. Well, no more. You win SEC. Alabama now has an established dynasty. Texas A&M comes to the SEC and finds its freshman, Heisman winning quarterback and arguably should have gone to a BCS bowl game. Georgia could have made a similar case as Florida did wind up making it to the Sugar Bowl. South Carolina was also able to join in on the fun as they made a New Year's Day bowl game with a defensive Heisman runner for next year in Jadeveon Clowney. Their players are bigger, faster, and stronger than any other place in the country. Honestly, if you're a high school recruit, why go anywhere else? This conference will continue winning as the loaded recruiting classes keep coming in, and the other power conferences will just turn into conferences. There will be only one true power conference, and that will be/is the SEC.
If My Predictions Were Correct, A Playoff Would Have Solved Everything
Although the NCAA will use a different type of rankings system next year, the matchups for this year based on BCS rankings would have been #4 Oregon vs #1 Notre Dame and #3 Florida vs #2 Alabama. One thing we know about the new system is they do allow for more than one team from the same conference to be amongst the teams in the playoffs. In my opinion, the winners would have been Oregon and Alabama, setting up the most competitive and worthy title game. Oregon would have won and been crowned the National Champion. The SEC streak would have ended and Florida would not have had to suffer the embarrassment of losing to Louisville. Notre Dame would still have gotten blown out, but at least not in the title game. The argument over a rightful national champion would be over! Maybe next year. Wait, definitely next year. As coach Jim Mora might ask, "Playoffs? You kiddin me?"
Matty O
Sunday, December 23, 2012
My Awesome/Dissapointing/Happy/Sad Fantasy Football Review/Preview
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times." It is as though Charles Dickens was chronicling my fantasy season this year. Two different leagues, two vastly different results. One league for money, one for a Cubs game. One standard scoring, the other used point per reception (PPR). One was managed by myself, the other was part of a project in class with the team run by two others apart from myself. One saw a title win for me, the other saw a second to last place finish. Along the way I noticed things, regretted things, and rejoiced over things. Here are some highlights from this year, as well as previewing next year. Let's start at the draft.
Best Draft Pick
Dez Bryant (WR - Cowboys) - He was on my team in both leagues. Both leagues were 12 team leagues and I got him in the 4th in my pay league and the 5th in the other. Usually I would try to dig a bit deeper for best draft/value pick, but the bottom parts of both my drafts weren't the best. Having said that, getting Dez where I got him, is ridiculous. What do Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Demaryius Thomas, Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz all have in common? They were all WRs taken before Dez, but finishing behind him in fantasy points this season.
I can't fault people for not picking him and, as you'll find out later, I actually tried actively to trade him. He has had a history of drops and had his share of off the field problems. But c'mon, the dude is a physical freak. You had to figure he would break out at some point. He destroyed the opposition in the second half of the season and rewarded his owners with a 34.4 (43.4 in PPR) pt effort in the championship week for most leagues. The scary part is that he put up insane fantasy numbers despite three games early in the season with less than 2 pts and a broken finger in the last two weeks. Imagine what he'll do next year with a full off season. Yikes!
Worst Draft Pick
Phillip Rivers (QB - Chargers) - Where to begin with this clown? He has become my most hated player in football. I figured he got all the suckiness out of his system last year. There's no way he could be bad again this year right? Wrong! He only put up three games over 20 pts all season, whereas RG3 did that in his first three games. I actually watched a couple Chargers games and his interceptions were just awful. I'd just scratch my head and wonder what in the world he was throwing to/at? His talent makes him so tempting, but he had a banged up offensive line and made terrible decisions. Although I got him in the fifth round, I still took him ahead of the likes of Big Ben, Matt Ryan, and Andrew Luck. Get it together Phil!
Best Waiver Pickup
Alfred Morris (RB - Redskins) - Morris wasn't on my team for that long, but he was a key in a trade package that allowed me to get Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster (I gave LeSean McCoy, Roddy White, and Morris for AP and Foster). Even if I had kept him, he still had one heck of a season and finished ahead of the likes of Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Michael Turner to name a few. It is very rare that a player that productive is able to be scooped up off waivers, but he went undrafted in virtually every league. Anyone that was lucky enough to pick him up sure was a happy camper.
Worst Waiver Pickup
Ryan Tannehill (QB - Dolphins) - This was the contributing factor to one of only three losses in my PPR league. Aaron Rodgers was on a bye and Tannehill had put up decent numbers and was going up against the soft Titans defense. He should be good for 15-17 pts, at least double digits. What does this jamoke do? Puts up 2.58 pts. Those are Phillip Rivers numbers! Although we still finished first in the overall standings, that game made it closer than it needed to be.
Player I'm Glad I Didn't Trade
Dez Bryant - See a theme here? Dez is awesome. Thankfully, his awesomeness did not show until late in the season. Before then, I'm pretty sure I tried to trade Dez on a daily basis. I packaged him with others, tried trading straight up, I just thought he would struggle down the stretch and Romo would go back to throwing to Miles Austin a lot. My quest to trade him started after his week 10 performance against Philly where he posted 14 (ESPN Standard Scoring) pts. The offer I thought would have the most success was Dez, Titus Young (a nine point effort in week 10 and 22 pts two weeks before that), and Josh Freeman (guy I was trading with was a Vick owner) for Calvin Johnson. It was declined and Dez by himself went on to post 121 points from week 11 on, whereas Megatron went for only 104. Fortunately for him, his team still made the playoffs, but lost last week in the semis, by 12.
Player I Can't Believe I Traded
Adrian Peterson (RB - Vikings) - Yep, I'm the doofus that traded AP. Hear me out though. When I traded him, he constantly had injury updates saying something was hurting. I still didn't trust his knee all that much either and cringed whenever I saw him take a hit. Before I traded him (week 9 when he went bananas), he had only put up two good games, against Jacksonville and Arizona. He also still had to face Seattle, the Bears (twice), Houston, and his bye. He was getting his yards, but not his TDs, and I didn't think that would change. Silly me. He went for 31 pts in week 9 against Seattle and finished the year with at least 25 points in 5 of his last 7 games. Lesson learned: Never doubt AP's recovery from injury. Ever.
Best Sleeper Prediction
Matt Ryan (QB - Falcons) - This was a toss up between Ryan, Seattle's D, and Reggie Wayne, but Ryan takes the cake. Ryan's draft position was all over the place as he dropped to the eighth in one of mine, and was taken as high as the third in my other. A discussion on value based drafting will be presented later. The fact is he was taken after a number of quarterbacks due to him not putting up monster numbers in the past and the Falcons leaning on Michael Turner and the run game to win them games. Instead, the Falcons unveiled a hurry up, no huddle offense which Ryan thrived in. Sure he had some bad games (Oakland and Arizona come to mind), but he also had spectacular ones such as the opener against KC, at the Superdome against New Orleans, and most recently on the road against the Lions to clinch the #1 seed in the playoffs. He won't go nearly as low next year since the secret is out, but he gave great value if you snagged him in 2012.
Worst Sleeper Prediction
Christian Ponder (QB - Vikings) - Similar to the Best Sleeper section, there were a few to choose from here. I thought Ponder would make great strides this year with AP and Percy Harvin helping out as well as another year in the Viking's system. Nope. Even though the Vikings are playing outstanding this year, Ponder has been far from great. He's had a couple nice games such as against San Fran (go figure) and at Washington, but his inconsistency continues to hurt him. It didn't help that Harvin got injured and the offense started to lean heavily on AP. I actually still agree with everything I wrote in his sleeper section, it just didn't pan out. Maybe next year buddy.
Best Bust Prediction
Jermichael Finley (TE - Packers) - What happened to this guy? He used to be the next Antonio Gates, but drops and broken chemistry with A-Rod have led him to many fantasy benches and even the waiver wire in some leagues. His talent and size are there, he just couldn't put it all together this year. He had two, yes two, double digit fantasy outings. He finished behind the likes of Brandon Myers, Jared Cook, and Scott Chandler. Not exactly an All Star group of TEs right there. In a twist of fate, I think I'll actually put him in my sleeper section next year because I think his draft stock will fall significantly. The guy can still play and if he could catch the ball, he has the potential to put up Gronk and Graham type numbers. Only time will tell.
Worst Bust Prediction
Bears D/SPT - Here's one for the Bears fans reading this. I was wrong about your defense. They put up five games of over 20 points and got takeaways left and right. I thought this group would start the aging/breaking down process this year, but it was not to be. For those that picked the Steelers D over this group, sorry. My prediction of bust actually started to come true towards the end of the season. Urlacher got hurt (which I thought would happen at the start of the season) along with many other players and the Bears put up -1, 5, and 6 points in weeks 13, 14, and 15, respectively. I still don't like them for next season as I think they were way too dependent on turnovers this year. I'll say that next year is the year they bust. Gotta get it right sometime don't I?
Just a few other tidbits of info:
A note on value based drafting
I mentioned this before when talking about Matt Ryan. Value based drafting is what all fantasy players should do. This is the reason why your draft probably saw a number of running backs go early and very few WRs. Why is that? The reason is because I can find a quality WR in the later rounds, but that is very hard to do with running backs. For example, in one of my leagues, Mike Williams (WR - TB) was taken in the 13th round. This was the number 2 WR on the Bucs. He would be on the field, playing, after having only one down year last year. By comparison, Rashard Mendenhall was taken in that same round, a few spots after Williams. The thing is, Mendenhall was injured, was already guaranteed to miss some games, and had to adjust to a new system with new offensive coordinator Todd Haley. So in the 13th round you can have a solid #2 WR or a RB with injury issues that is guaranteed to miss games. See the point? You can get good receivers late, not so much with running backs.
The other example I will bring up is the drafting of RG3. He was taken in the second round in one of my drafts. Despite the fact he put up first round numbers, this was not a good pick. It took all of us drafting by surprise. Why is it not a good pick, you might ask given his extraordinary season? Well, consider some of the players taken after that pick in the same round were Matt Forte, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, and Wes Welker. RG3 was being taken around the 6th round in most drafts. This person's selection in the sixth round was Shonn Greene. So his team could have had RG3/Forte instead of RG3/Greene. Realize that even with Greene's 34 point performance, Forte missing the St. Louis game, and Forte not scoring more than 20 points, he still finished ahead of Grenne. The difference is even more staggering if you consider if he would have drafted Marshall or one of the Falcons receivers. Just keep that in mind about players that are projected low. As great as you think they will be, you'd be better off getting them at their appropriate spot rather than passing up a great player in the first or second round.
RG3 Works For Me
Along these lines, anyone who did draft RG3 should have at least been in their league's playoffs. Even the person described above made it. The team I played in the PPR league for the title had RG3. If you had RG3 on your team and did not make the playoffs, never play fantasy again (unless you drafted MJD and DeMarco Murray). Heck, as long as you found a viable backup for week 15, you should have made your title game. Period. Some people I know had RG3 and A-Rod on the same team! Imagine the trade possibilities. So, again, although I don't want to deter people from fantasy football, if you had RG3 and didn't make the playoffs, it might be time to find a new hobby.
PPR Awesomeness
I didn't really notice the difference between PPR and non until this year. I had always been in a standard league, but I like the PPR a lot more. I feel there is much more skill in player selection involved. With standard leagues, players essentially are rewarded for the big plays and TDs. Mike Wallace might only have one catch, but if that catch is for 60 yards and a TD then BAM, 12 points and you're glad you started him. PPR is great because you can have a player like Danny Amendola, who will not get drafted anywhere near Mike Wallace, get 6 catches for 60 yards and he's got 12. I feel like standard is a lot more luck and PPR rewards true contributors to their teams. Wallace's one deep catch might come in garbage time, whereas Amendola contributes throughout the game and probably helps the Rams pick up one or two first downs. Obviously the big names like Megatron and AJ Green will be great in both formats, but it allows the Amendolas and Antonio Browns of the world to make a difference in fantasy football.
Luck, No, Not Andrew
Last, but not least, luck. I'm beginning to lose faith in my fantasy predictions and wonder how people like Matthew Berry have jobs. I'm not saying there's zero skill involved. If you start Mark Sanchez, the Jaguars D, and Shane Vereen then yeah, you'll probably lose. But there were so many instances this year where my team would outscore nearly every other team, except the one I was facing. Players that have no business having big games, would have big games against my team. My team, in the regular season, outscored 6 out of the other 11 teams in my league including two teams that went to the playoffs. For points against, however, I had the most points scored against me by 40 points. One team barely got 1000 scored against him which is ridiculous. Here is my shout out to all the players that pushed the luck NOT in my favor
Oh hey, Reggie Bush wanna drop 30 on me, the only time you will all season? Sure. "Don't worry," says Jamaal Charles, "I can top that." 35 dropped on my face. Rams rookie kicker, bet you feel like putting up 17? Yep! Jordy Nelson knows how to put up 30 too (I actually won that week though). Issac Redman about to drop 20 on me? Seriously? You haven't been playing all year. Andre Johnson, time to remember how to play when you play my team. Oh right, here's 33 for ya.
Whew. Deep breath. I actually won three of my last four matchups including the Sacko Bowl, so no hilarious, embarrassing stunts for me. Also, a title win in my PPR league helped to ease the pain. All I know is my Sundays are about to become much more productive, and I cannot wait for next year. Worst to first baby!
My Top 10 for next year
1. AP
2. Foster
3. RG3
4. A-Rod
5. Brady
6. Rice
7. Lynch
8. Megatron
9. Brees
10. AJ Green/Doug Martin
Matty O
Best Draft Pick
Dez Bryant (WR - Cowboys) - He was on my team in both leagues. Both leagues were 12 team leagues and I got him in the 4th in my pay league and the 5th in the other. Usually I would try to dig a bit deeper for best draft/value pick, but the bottom parts of both my drafts weren't the best. Having said that, getting Dez where I got him, is ridiculous. What do Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Demaryius Thomas, Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz all have in common? They were all WRs taken before Dez, but finishing behind him in fantasy points this season.
I can't fault people for not picking him and, as you'll find out later, I actually tried actively to trade him. He has had a history of drops and had his share of off the field problems. But c'mon, the dude is a physical freak. You had to figure he would break out at some point. He destroyed the opposition in the second half of the season and rewarded his owners with a 34.4 (43.4 in PPR) pt effort in the championship week for most leagues. The scary part is that he put up insane fantasy numbers despite three games early in the season with less than 2 pts and a broken finger in the last two weeks. Imagine what he'll do next year with a full off season. Yikes!
Worst Draft Pick
Phillip Rivers (QB - Chargers) - Where to begin with this clown? He has become my most hated player in football. I figured he got all the suckiness out of his system last year. There's no way he could be bad again this year right? Wrong! He only put up three games over 20 pts all season, whereas RG3 did that in his first three games. I actually watched a couple Chargers games and his interceptions were just awful. I'd just scratch my head and wonder what in the world he was throwing to/at? His talent makes him so tempting, but he had a banged up offensive line and made terrible decisions. Although I got him in the fifth round, I still took him ahead of the likes of Big Ben, Matt Ryan, and Andrew Luck. Get it together Phil!
Best Waiver Pickup
Alfred Morris (RB - Redskins) - Morris wasn't on my team for that long, but he was a key in a trade package that allowed me to get Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster (I gave LeSean McCoy, Roddy White, and Morris for AP and Foster). Even if I had kept him, he still had one heck of a season and finished ahead of the likes of Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Michael Turner to name a few. It is very rare that a player that productive is able to be scooped up off waivers, but he went undrafted in virtually every league. Anyone that was lucky enough to pick him up sure was a happy camper.
Worst Waiver Pickup
Ryan Tannehill (QB - Dolphins) - This was the contributing factor to one of only three losses in my PPR league. Aaron Rodgers was on a bye and Tannehill had put up decent numbers and was going up against the soft Titans defense. He should be good for 15-17 pts, at least double digits. What does this jamoke do? Puts up 2.58 pts. Those are Phillip Rivers numbers! Although we still finished first in the overall standings, that game made it closer than it needed to be.
Player I'm Glad I Didn't Trade
Dez Bryant - See a theme here? Dez is awesome. Thankfully, his awesomeness did not show until late in the season. Before then, I'm pretty sure I tried to trade Dez on a daily basis. I packaged him with others, tried trading straight up, I just thought he would struggle down the stretch and Romo would go back to throwing to Miles Austin a lot. My quest to trade him started after his week 10 performance against Philly where he posted 14 (ESPN Standard Scoring) pts. The offer I thought would have the most success was Dez, Titus Young (a nine point effort in week 10 and 22 pts two weeks before that), and Josh Freeman (guy I was trading with was a Vick owner) for Calvin Johnson. It was declined and Dez by himself went on to post 121 points from week 11 on, whereas Megatron went for only 104. Fortunately for him, his team still made the playoffs, but lost last week in the semis, by 12.
Player I Can't Believe I Traded
Adrian Peterson (RB - Vikings) - Yep, I'm the doofus that traded AP. Hear me out though. When I traded him, he constantly had injury updates saying something was hurting. I still didn't trust his knee all that much either and cringed whenever I saw him take a hit. Before I traded him (week 9 when he went bananas), he had only put up two good games, against Jacksonville and Arizona. He also still had to face Seattle, the Bears (twice), Houston, and his bye. He was getting his yards, but not his TDs, and I didn't think that would change. Silly me. He went for 31 pts in week 9 against Seattle and finished the year with at least 25 points in 5 of his last 7 games. Lesson learned: Never doubt AP's recovery from injury. Ever.
Best Sleeper Prediction
Matt Ryan (QB - Falcons) - This was a toss up between Ryan, Seattle's D, and Reggie Wayne, but Ryan takes the cake. Ryan's draft position was all over the place as he dropped to the eighth in one of mine, and was taken as high as the third in my other. A discussion on value based drafting will be presented later. The fact is he was taken after a number of quarterbacks due to him not putting up monster numbers in the past and the Falcons leaning on Michael Turner and the run game to win them games. Instead, the Falcons unveiled a hurry up, no huddle offense which Ryan thrived in. Sure he had some bad games (Oakland and Arizona come to mind), but he also had spectacular ones such as the opener against KC, at the Superdome against New Orleans, and most recently on the road against the Lions to clinch the #1 seed in the playoffs. He won't go nearly as low next year since the secret is out, but he gave great value if you snagged him in 2012.
Worst Sleeper Prediction
Christian Ponder (QB - Vikings) - Similar to the Best Sleeper section, there were a few to choose from here. I thought Ponder would make great strides this year with AP and Percy Harvin helping out as well as another year in the Viking's system. Nope. Even though the Vikings are playing outstanding this year, Ponder has been far from great. He's had a couple nice games such as against San Fran (go figure) and at Washington, but his inconsistency continues to hurt him. It didn't help that Harvin got injured and the offense started to lean heavily on AP. I actually still agree with everything I wrote in his sleeper section, it just didn't pan out. Maybe next year buddy.
Best Bust Prediction
Jermichael Finley (TE - Packers) - What happened to this guy? He used to be the next Antonio Gates, but drops and broken chemistry with A-Rod have led him to many fantasy benches and even the waiver wire in some leagues. His talent and size are there, he just couldn't put it all together this year. He had two, yes two, double digit fantasy outings. He finished behind the likes of Brandon Myers, Jared Cook, and Scott Chandler. Not exactly an All Star group of TEs right there. In a twist of fate, I think I'll actually put him in my sleeper section next year because I think his draft stock will fall significantly. The guy can still play and if he could catch the ball, he has the potential to put up Gronk and Graham type numbers. Only time will tell.
Worst Bust Prediction
Bears D/SPT - Here's one for the Bears fans reading this. I was wrong about your defense. They put up five games of over 20 points and got takeaways left and right. I thought this group would start the aging/breaking down process this year, but it was not to be. For those that picked the Steelers D over this group, sorry. My prediction of bust actually started to come true towards the end of the season. Urlacher got hurt (which I thought would happen at the start of the season) along with many other players and the Bears put up -1, 5, and 6 points in weeks 13, 14, and 15, respectively. I still don't like them for next season as I think they were way too dependent on turnovers this year. I'll say that next year is the year they bust. Gotta get it right sometime don't I?
Just a few other tidbits of info:
A note on value based drafting
I mentioned this before when talking about Matt Ryan. Value based drafting is what all fantasy players should do. This is the reason why your draft probably saw a number of running backs go early and very few WRs. Why is that? The reason is because I can find a quality WR in the later rounds, but that is very hard to do with running backs. For example, in one of my leagues, Mike Williams (WR - TB) was taken in the 13th round. This was the number 2 WR on the Bucs. He would be on the field, playing, after having only one down year last year. By comparison, Rashard Mendenhall was taken in that same round, a few spots after Williams. The thing is, Mendenhall was injured, was already guaranteed to miss some games, and had to adjust to a new system with new offensive coordinator Todd Haley. So in the 13th round you can have a solid #2 WR or a RB with injury issues that is guaranteed to miss games. See the point? You can get good receivers late, not so much with running backs.
The other example I will bring up is the drafting of RG3. He was taken in the second round in one of my drafts. Despite the fact he put up first round numbers, this was not a good pick. It took all of us drafting by surprise. Why is it not a good pick, you might ask given his extraordinary season? Well, consider some of the players taken after that pick in the same round were Matt Forte, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, and Wes Welker. RG3 was being taken around the 6th round in most drafts. This person's selection in the sixth round was Shonn Greene. So his team could have had RG3/Forte instead of RG3/Greene. Realize that even with Greene's 34 point performance, Forte missing the St. Louis game, and Forte not scoring more than 20 points, he still finished ahead of Grenne. The difference is even more staggering if you consider if he would have drafted Marshall or one of the Falcons receivers. Just keep that in mind about players that are projected low. As great as you think they will be, you'd be better off getting them at their appropriate spot rather than passing up a great player in the first or second round.
RG3 Works For Me
Along these lines, anyone who did draft RG3 should have at least been in their league's playoffs. Even the person described above made it. The team I played in the PPR league for the title had RG3. If you had RG3 on your team and did not make the playoffs, never play fantasy again (unless you drafted MJD and DeMarco Murray). Heck, as long as you found a viable backup for week 15, you should have made your title game. Period. Some people I know had RG3 and A-Rod on the same team! Imagine the trade possibilities. So, again, although I don't want to deter people from fantasy football, if you had RG3 and didn't make the playoffs, it might be time to find a new hobby.
PPR Awesomeness
I didn't really notice the difference between PPR and non until this year. I had always been in a standard league, but I like the PPR a lot more. I feel there is much more skill in player selection involved. With standard leagues, players essentially are rewarded for the big plays and TDs. Mike Wallace might only have one catch, but if that catch is for 60 yards and a TD then BAM, 12 points and you're glad you started him. PPR is great because you can have a player like Danny Amendola, who will not get drafted anywhere near Mike Wallace, get 6 catches for 60 yards and he's got 12. I feel like standard is a lot more luck and PPR rewards true contributors to their teams. Wallace's one deep catch might come in garbage time, whereas Amendola contributes throughout the game and probably helps the Rams pick up one or two first downs. Obviously the big names like Megatron and AJ Green will be great in both formats, but it allows the Amendolas and Antonio Browns of the world to make a difference in fantasy football.
Luck, No, Not Andrew
Last, but not least, luck. I'm beginning to lose faith in my fantasy predictions and wonder how people like Matthew Berry have jobs. I'm not saying there's zero skill involved. If you start Mark Sanchez, the Jaguars D, and Shane Vereen then yeah, you'll probably lose. But there were so many instances this year where my team would outscore nearly every other team, except the one I was facing. Players that have no business having big games, would have big games against my team. My team, in the regular season, outscored 6 out of the other 11 teams in my league including two teams that went to the playoffs. For points against, however, I had the most points scored against me by 40 points. One team barely got 1000 scored against him which is ridiculous. Here is my shout out to all the players that pushed the luck NOT in my favor
Oh hey, Reggie Bush wanna drop 30 on me, the only time you will all season? Sure. "Don't worry," says Jamaal Charles, "I can top that." 35 dropped on my face. Rams rookie kicker, bet you feel like putting up 17? Yep! Jordy Nelson knows how to put up 30 too (I actually won that week though). Issac Redman about to drop 20 on me? Seriously? You haven't been playing all year. Andre Johnson, time to remember how to play when you play my team. Oh right, here's 33 for ya.
Whew. Deep breath. I actually won three of my last four matchups including the Sacko Bowl, so no hilarious, embarrassing stunts for me. Also, a title win in my PPR league helped to ease the pain. All I know is my Sundays are about to become much more productive, and I cannot wait for next year. Worst to first baby!
My Top 10 for next year
1. AP
2. Foster
3. RG3
4. A-Rod
5. Brady
6. Rice
7. Lynch
8. Megatron
9. Brees
10. AJ Green/Doug Martin
Matty O
Monday, December 17, 2012
49ers: Ya Got Me Convinced
If you don't read the whole thing, at least check out the part at the end.
Ever since last year when the 49ers made their Super Bowl run, I've doubted them. Sure that defense is nasty, and their special teams is fundamentally sound (even though it cost them in the NFC Title Game last year), but am I supposed to believe that Alex Smith can quarterback a Super Bowl winning team? Thankfully, it looks like I won't have to. Enter Colin Kaepernick.
Kaepernick was a second round draft pick out of the University of Nevada. Had he played at a more prominent university, he might not have come out of nowhere like he has. Consider that at Nevada, he was the only FBS quarterback to ever pass for over 10,000 yards and rushed for over 4,000 yards in a career. He made Nevada a relevant program and was a thorn in Boise State's side for the years he was there. Early this year, he was learning and sitting patiently behind Alex Smith as he watched his 49ers go 6-2 heading into their bye week. Then came week 10 against the Rams. Smith, who had been playing well so far, went down with a concussion.
Down 17 entering the 4th quarter, the 49ers needed a stellar performance from Kaepernick, and he delivered. He passed for 117 and ran for 66 with a touchdown. The most important stat was zero, as in number of turnovers. He took care of the ball, didn't try to be Aaron Rodgers, and let the stellar defense keep the 49ers in the game. It worked, sort of. Despite tying the game in regulation, both teams missed field goals in OT, and the game ended in a tie. This was the start of the Kaepernick movement and may even become the Kaepernick era if he keeps it up. While there was some controversy and confusion at first over who would start, Kaepernick has solidified his spot as the starter to the delight of 49er, and fantasy football fans everywhere.
Since that tie, he has gone 4-1 with his only loss coming against the Rams in OT. Thankfully for the 49ers it doesn't look like they will be facing the Rams in any context until next season as the Rams will likely miss the playoffs. San Fran, meanwhile, have already clinched a playoff spot and can win the division with a win over Seattle this Sunday. His most recent virtuoso came against the Patriots yesterday in prime time, in Foxborough, in the rain, on Sunday Night Football. This is when I became a believer.
The Patriots, at home, in the second half of the season? Forget about it. Frequent flyer miles aside, there's really no good reason to even go play them. Stay home, enjoy California, take the L. Instead, Kaepernick and the defense came out on a tear and jumped out to an early lead. By the end of the first quarter, the Pats had already thrown an interception and fumbled the ball, while Kaepernick had already thrown a TD to ex-Patriot Randy Moss. By the end of the first half, it was 17-3 as the defense had smothered Brady and the vaunted hurry up Pats offense. In the third quarter, when the Pats had halftime to make adjustments, it got worse.
Their first two possessions of the third quarter, the Pats fumbled and threw yet another interception. The fumble led to a whacky touchdown when Kaepernick fumbled the snap (a common occurrence for the 49ers in this game) and an alert Frank Gore picked it up and ran it in for a TD. The interception led to a Michael Crabtree TD catch from Kaepernick. With ten minutes left in the third, it was San Fran - 31, Pats - 3. People may have picked the 49ers to win, but no one expected a blasting of this magnitude. Then, as if content with their lead, the 49ers played a kind of prevent defense. They were still getting pressure and making tackles, but it wasn't as intense as early on as anyone who saw the game will tell you. Not the best of all decisions. No matter how good your defense is, if you give players like Brady or Rodgers time back there, they will tear your defense to shreds. And he did.
New England rattled off 28 straight points with Brady contributing to two of them (ran for one, threw for one). He was shredding the defense, as the atmosphere in the stands picked back up, and defense found itself once again. Three and out became the name of the game as the Pats tied the game with around seven minutes still left to play. The way the Pats were moving the ball, it wasn't that crazy to think they might win by a couple scores after being down 31-3. The Pats then fell victim to special teams and the Kap. Following the TD that tied the game, returner LaMichael James, who should be used more in their regular offense, raced down the sideline and returned it for 62 yards. The very next play, Kap showed poise in the pocket and found a wide open Crabtree for a 38 yard TD. San Fran's D seemed to wake up and they sacked Brady twice on the Pats next possession. A late field goal by the 49ers put it pretty much out of reach, though Brady made it interesting at the end. After a Pats FG put them within striking distance, a failed onside kick ended the game at 41-34. Regardless of the score, this was a big win.
Colin proved to me, he can ball. His other victories were impressive, but I still needed to see something. The Chicago win was impressive, but as we're seeing now and as I've tried to warn people all year, the Bears are overrated. When that defense doesn't get turnovers for the offense (49ers turned it over 0 times) they are a mediocre team at best as the 49ers proved in destroying them 32-7. I started to get a bit more belief when they beat the Saints in the Superdome, but that was against the Saints D. I could grab ten other random friends and we could go put up a few scores on that D, so I still wasn't that impressed. His other victory came against the Dolphins and well, they're the Dolphins. This win spoke volumes about how good this team is. On the road, in a place where no one wins, and they pull it out with a guy who wasn't even in the conversation of starter a few weeks ago.
The upcoming schedule is going to be tough and test Kap. If he can knock off the Seahawks in Seattle, then you would simply have to be ignorant to not give this kid his props. His dual threat running and passing keeps defenses guessing and he rarely makes the bad decision that costs his team the game (excluding the 16-13 OT loss to St. Louis, though he did a lot to put his team in a position to win). I could certainly see this team Super Bowl bound. As of right now, they have a first round bye and finally have their man at quarterback. The other teams in the playoffs would be the Falcons, Packers, Redskins, Vikings, and Seahawks. They've already beaten the Pack and Seahawks. They have not and will not play the Redskins or Falcons. Their loss to the Vikings was early on when Alex Smith played like, well, Alex Smith with an INT and a fumble lost. I think it would be a different story this time around. Hop on the bandwagon while there's still seats available. This wagon is going all the way down to New Orleans. See you there New England!
Matty O
On a much more serious note and just something that I've noticed the last couple days, people need to take a different perspective when thinking about the shooting in Newtown, CT. I've seen multiple, long threads on Facebook about gun control and recently numerous people posting about Deadspin.com's article regarding Sunday Night Football and Obama's speech. Stop it. You like gun control? Fine. Write a letter to your senator or read up on gun policy instead of giving reasons like "guns are evil." All those gun control posts do is just wind up in 10 people going at it over guns, freedom of speech, and finally ending up at why Coke is better than Pepsi. It's pointless. Were those tweets mentioned in the article appropriate? No, of course not. But what good are you trying to accomplish by posting that? Are you trying to go after football, even though all stadiums and players paid tribute to those victims? I bet your workplace won't do that today. Were you trying to go after people that hate Obama, and try to associate hating Obama with rudeness and classlessness? Or are you just trying to make other people look bad? You can disagree with me on this and I probably won't see eye to eye with everyone, but if you really do care, then post stuff like the Morgan Freeman post.
To those that have not read it, he makes the point that the media will "glorify" this shooter which gives others something to strive for or top. Everyone will know the shooter's name by week's end yet many of the victims will go unknown and lost from memory. If you really want to take something away from this, research a news article like this, that makes you familiar with one of the victims involved. You can also donate to United Way CT or the Red Cross. Again, don't take my head off for this if you don't agree, but just think about which of your actions will have the desired results you want. Thanks for reading!
Ever since last year when the 49ers made their Super Bowl run, I've doubted them. Sure that defense is nasty, and their special teams is fundamentally sound (even though it cost them in the NFC Title Game last year), but am I supposed to believe that Alex Smith can quarterback a Super Bowl winning team? Thankfully, it looks like I won't have to. Enter Colin Kaepernick.
Kaepernick was a second round draft pick out of the University of Nevada. Had he played at a more prominent university, he might not have come out of nowhere like he has. Consider that at Nevada, he was the only FBS quarterback to ever pass for over 10,000 yards and rushed for over 4,000 yards in a career. He made Nevada a relevant program and was a thorn in Boise State's side for the years he was there. Early this year, he was learning and sitting patiently behind Alex Smith as he watched his 49ers go 6-2 heading into their bye week. Then came week 10 against the Rams. Smith, who had been playing well so far, went down with a concussion.
Down 17 entering the 4th quarter, the 49ers needed a stellar performance from Kaepernick, and he delivered. He passed for 117 and ran for 66 with a touchdown. The most important stat was zero, as in number of turnovers. He took care of the ball, didn't try to be Aaron Rodgers, and let the stellar defense keep the 49ers in the game. It worked, sort of. Despite tying the game in regulation, both teams missed field goals in OT, and the game ended in a tie. This was the start of the Kaepernick movement and may even become the Kaepernick era if he keeps it up. While there was some controversy and confusion at first over who would start, Kaepernick has solidified his spot as the starter to the delight of 49er, and fantasy football fans everywhere.
Since that tie, he has gone 4-1 with his only loss coming against the Rams in OT. Thankfully for the 49ers it doesn't look like they will be facing the Rams in any context until next season as the Rams will likely miss the playoffs. San Fran, meanwhile, have already clinched a playoff spot and can win the division with a win over Seattle this Sunday. His most recent virtuoso came against the Patriots yesterday in prime time, in Foxborough, in the rain, on Sunday Night Football. This is when I became a believer.
The Patriots, at home, in the second half of the season? Forget about it. Frequent flyer miles aside, there's really no good reason to even go play them. Stay home, enjoy California, take the L. Instead, Kaepernick and the defense came out on a tear and jumped out to an early lead. By the end of the first quarter, the Pats had already thrown an interception and fumbled the ball, while Kaepernick had already thrown a TD to ex-Patriot Randy Moss. By the end of the first half, it was 17-3 as the defense had smothered Brady and the vaunted hurry up Pats offense. In the third quarter, when the Pats had halftime to make adjustments, it got worse.
Their first two possessions of the third quarter, the Pats fumbled and threw yet another interception. The fumble led to a whacky touchdown when Kaepernick fumbled the snap (a common occurrence for the 49ers in this game) and an alert Frank Gore picked it up and ran it in for a TD. The interception led to a Michael Crabtree TD catch from Kaepernick. With ten minutes left in the third, it was San Fran - 31, Pats - 3. People may have picked the 49ers to win, but no one expected a blasting of this magnitude. Then, as if content with their lead, the 49ers played a kind of prevent defense. They were still getting pressure and making tackles, but it wasn't as intense as early on as anyone who saw the game will tell you. Not the best of all decisions. No matter how good your defense is, if you give players like Brady or Rodgers time back there, they will tear your defense to shreds. And he did.
New England rattled off 28 straight points with Brady contributing to two of them (ran for one, threw for one). He was shredding the defense, as the atmosphere in the stands picked back up, and defense found itself once again. Three and out became the name of the game as the Pats tied the game with around seven minutes still left to play. The way the Pats were moving the ball, it wasn't that crazy to think they might win by a couple scores after being down 31-3. The Pats then fell victim to special teams and the Kap. Following the TD that tied the game, returner LaMichael James, who should be used more in their regular offense, raced down the sideline and returned it for 62 yards. The very next play, Kap showed poise in the pocket and found a wide open Crabtree for a 38 yard TD. San Fran's D seemed to wake up and they sacked Brady twice on the Pats next possession. A late field goal by the 49ers put it pretty much out of reach, though Brady made it interesting at the end. After a Pats FG put them within striking distance, a failed onside kick ended the game at 41-34. Regardless of the score, this was a big win.
Colin proved to me, he can ball. His other victories were impressive, but I still needed to see something. The Chicago win was impressive, but as we're seeing now and as I've tried to warn people all year, the Bears are overrated. When that defense doesn't get turnovers for the offense (49ers turned it over 0 times) they are a mediocre team at best as the 49ers proved in destroying them 32-7. I started to get a bit more belief when they beat the Saints in the Superdome, but that was against the Saints D. I could grab ten other random friends and we could go put up a few scores on that D, so I still wasn't that impressed. His other victory came against the Dolphins and well, they're the Dolphins. This win spoke volumes about how good this team is. On the road, in a place where no one wins, and they pull it out with a guy who wasn't even in the conversation of starter a few weeks ago.
The upcoming schedule is going to be tough and test Kap. If he can knock off the Seahawks in Seattle, then you would simply have to be ignorant to not give this kid his props. His dual threat running and passing keeps defenses guessing and he rarely makes the bad decision that costs his team the game (excluding the 16-13 OT loss to St. Louis, though he did a lot to put his team in a position to win). I could certainly see this team Super Bowl bound. As of right now, they have a first round bye and finally have their man at quarterback. The other teams in the playoffs would be the Falcons, Packers, Redskins, Vikings, and Seahawks. They've already beaten the Pack and Seahawks. They have not and will not play the Redskins or Falcons. Their loss to the Vikings was early on when Alex Smith played like, well, Alex Smith with an INT and a fumble lost. I think it would be a different story this time around. Hop on the bandwagon while there's still seats available. This wagon is going all the way down to New Orleans. See you there New England!
Matty O
On a much more serious note and just something that I've noticed the last couple days, people need to take a different perspective when thinking about the shooting in Newtown, CT. I've seen multiple, long threads on Facebook about gun control and recently numerous people posting about Deadspin.com's article regarding Sunday Night Football and Obama's speech. Stop it. You like gun control? Fine. Write a letter to your senator or read up on gun policy instead of giving reasons like "guns are evil." All those gun control posts do is just wind up in 10 people going at it over guns, freedom of speech, and finally ending up at why Coke is better than Pepsi. It's pointless. Were those tweets mentioned in the article appropriate? No, of course not. But what good are you trying to accomplish by posting that? Are you trying to go after football, even though all stadiums and players paid tribute to those victims? I bet your workplace won't do that today. Were you trying to go after people that hate Obama, and try to associate hating Obama with rudeness and classlessness? Or are you just trying to make other people look bad? You can disagree with me on this and I probably won't see eye to eye with everyone, but if you really do care, then post stuff like the Morgan Freeman post.
To those that have not read it, he makes the point that the media will "glorify" this shooter which gives others something to strive for or top. Everyone will know the shooter's name by week's end yet many of the victims will go unknown and lost from memory. If you really want to take something away from this, research a news article like this, that makes you familiar with one of the victims involved. You can also donate to United Way CT or the Red Cross. Again, don't take my head off for this if you don't agree, but just think about which of your actions will have the desired results you want. Thanks for reading!
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
NIU in the BCS
Like it or not, the Huskies are in. 12-1, undefeated in the MAC, and crashing the BCS as the first non-automatic qualifying conference team to make a BCS bowl that was not undefeated. Since the announcement, the decision has caused quite a bit of controversy. Even as a Huskies fan, I can see both sides to it, although I do think in the end, they deserve to be there.
For those who don't follow NIU, Kirk Herbstreit is public enemy number one amongst Huskie fans. During the Selection Show that put NIU against 11-2 Florida State, Herbstreit called it a sad state for college football that the Huskies got in, going so far as to call it a joke. While his choice of words was probably not the best, he did bring up some good points (hear me out Huskie fans). Unlike all the "BCS busters" in the past, this Huskies team doesn't really have that hype or signature win. The only team from a major conference they beat was Kansas, and they finished last in the Big 12. Their other big win was against a questionable number 17 Kent State in the MAC Championship. I actually thought the Kent State and NIU rankings should have been reversed going into that game (NIU was No. 21). Add in a close win against Army, and you have a less than impressive resume to say the least. The lackluster schedule that lesser conference teams play has been used against teams for years. The thing that should give people pause when seeing NIU in a BCS game is the way they went through their "easy" schedule.
One point ESPN analysts kept bringing up, that is a good point, is the BCS busters of old absolutely DOMINATED their competition. Take the 2006 Boise State team that beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. They only played one team from a power conference in Oregon State, who eventually finished the year in the top 25. Apart from that, they played the likes of Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, and Idaho. Similar to NIU's Toledo, BSU also had a formidable team in their conference that year that finished 11-3 and 7-1 in the WAC in Hawaii. So while the easiness of schedule is comparable, the dominance is not. NIU beat a last place Kansas team by 7. BSU beat said Oregon State team who finished in the top 25, by 28. They rolled through their schedule, surviving a scare against San Jose State, but ultimately finishing undefeated. Due to Ohio State losing in the National Championship, they wound up as the only undefeated team that year. It was a memorable team, who played in one of the most memorable bowl games ever.
To be fair to NIU, they also had a stretch of conference games where they were blowing teams out, and they have yet to play their bowl game which could turn into a classic. Still, I wouldn't even call this NIU team the most memorable one in recent years. The team I would turn to would be the 2003 Huskies team led by Michael Turner. They started the year beating a top 20 Maryland team, went on the road and beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and beat Iowa State of the Big 12. Realize that the Iowa State win that year was the icing on the cake, whereas the Kansas win this year was a "big" deal. Unfortunately, that NIU team lost to a ranked Bowling Green team whose only losses that year were to #4 Ohio State and twice to a Ben Roethlisberger-led Miami of Ohio team, and rival Toledo, both games away from home. Due to the lack of bowl tie-ins, the 10-2 Huskies were left watching bowl games instead of playing in them. Instead of a worthy Huskies team, Northwestern, Kansas, and UCLA played in bowls, lost, and finished with losing records (6-7). Now the shoe is on the other foot due to the BCS system. It is for this reason that the Huskies deserve to be in the Orange Bowl.
The only teams that I do have sympathy for in this whole BCS mess are Georgia and Texas A&M. Georgia played the #2 ranked Crimson Tide hard and lost the game in a heart breaking way. I thought they would wind up beating the Tide and playing Notre Dame for the title. They improved greatly throughout the year and deserve a BCS bowl spot. A&M actually did beat that Crimson Tide team and had potential Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel electrifying stadiums all year. Their only losses were by three to #3 Florida and by five to #8 ranked LSU. But don't remove NIU to get those two great teams in there. Instead, if we're trying to keep mediocre teams out of the BCS, remove Louisville and Wisconsin.
Louisville won the Big East. Big whoop. One could easily make the argument that the MAC is better than the Big East overall. Unlike NIU, who played a ranked Kent State team, Louisville went the entire season without having to do so. While NIU's loss came by one to Iowa, Louisville was throttled by 7-5 Syracuse by 19 and lost in triple overtime to a 5-7 Connecticut team. They won by seven points or less in six of their ten wins, compared to four such wins for NIU. Wisconsin, meanwhile, might have destroyed Nebraska in the Big Ten title game, but their overall record is 8-5 and only 4-4 in the Big Ten. The only reason they were even there is because the two teams ahead of them in their division, Ohio State and Penn State, are ineligible to play in the Big Ten title game. The only ranked team they played this year was Nebraska, having lost in the regular season but winning when it counted. This is also a team that beat Northern Iowa and Utah State by a combined seven points. SEVEN! And these two teams belong in the BCS? That Mr. Herbstreit, is the true joke of the BCS.
Look, NIU can't change its schedule. They don't control who is in the MAC. They play who they play. Larger programs refuse to face NIU at home and, given NIU's recent success, refuse to play them at all. This is one of the reasons why Iowa played NIU at Soldier Field rather than a home and home. NIU beat everyone on their schedule besides that Iowa team, although it was only by one the first game of the season. The team wasn't nearly as good as it is now and they had their chances to win that game. After that game, they went on a tear, averaging 42 points per game the rest of the year. They hung 63 points on UMass and 55 on Central Michigan, both Divison I FBS teams. Before you write that off as just beating up on bad teams, realize that NIU's Orange Bowl opponent Florida State hung 55 on Savannah State. Savannah State is a Division I FCS or I-AA team who finished last in their conference this year. Clearly, despite a flawed BCS system, NIU deserves to be there. They won their conference, beating a tough Kent State team in the process, and finished with only one loss. It's not their fault the Georgias and A&Ms of the world got left out.
This may be one of the last years that something like this happens because of the approaching playoff system. I hope NIU takes advantage of it. It seems people are pushing this game to the side and ready to call it a blow out. Not so fast my friend. Hope comes in the form of Jordan Lynch and the Clemson game that Florida State won. Although they beat the Tigers, Clemson's quarterback Tajh Boyd presents similar problems for defenses that Lynch has. Both are more than capable runners and can throw the ball when called upon. Boyd threw for 237 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, and 44 rushing yards before the Tigers fell. If Lynch can have the kind of patience he displayed in the MAC title game, I think he can have success against this FSU defense. I do think some of the bounces and "lucky" plays will have to go NIU's way to win this game, but it will be closer than people think. Apart from the Fiesta Bowl (Oregon vs Kansas State), this is the bowl that you should tune into as far as the BCS is concerned.
BCS Bowl Matchups as it should be
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs Kansas State - They got this one right in what should be the best bowl game out of all of them, BCS or not
Orange Bowl: Florida vs Florida State - Rivalry game in a BCS bowl? Taking place in Miami? Yes please. All the legends would come back for that game. It would be great for the sport
Sugar Bowl: Stanford vs NIU - This would be a great game in my opinion with superstar Lynch going against freshman quarterback Kevin Hogan in a surprisingly evenly matched game. Also, putting this game in New Orleans would get rid of Stanford's closeness to the Rose Bowl and put NIU in a dome (see MAC Championship for NIU's success in domes)
Rose Bowl: Texas A&M vs Georgia - Regardless of who is playing, the Rose Bowl is always a big deal, so why not let the two SEC titans battle it out. Being in separate divisions kept them from playing each other this year. Manziel and veteran Aaron Murray would get to duke it out in what would be an exciting, high scoring affair
Matty O
For those who don't follow NIU, Kirk Herbstreit is public enemy number one amongst Huskie fans. During the Selection Show that put NIU against 11-2 Florida State, Herbstreit called it a sad state for college football that the Huskies got in, going so far as to call it a joke. While his choice of words was probably not the best, he did bring up some good points (hear me out Huskie fans). Unlike all the "BCS busters" in the past, this Huskies team doesn't really have that hype or signature win. The only team from a major conference they beat was Kansas, and they finished last in the Big 12. Their other big win was against a questionable number 17 Kent State in the MAC Championship. I actually thought the Kent State and NIU rankings should have been reversed going into that game (NIU was No. 21). Add in a close win against Army, and you have a less than impressive resume to say the least. The lackluster schedule that lesser conference teams play has been used against teams for years. The thing that should give people pause when seeing NIU in a BCS game is the way they went through their "easy" schedule.
One point ESPN analysts kept bringing up, that is a good point, is the BCS busters of old absolutely DOMINATED their competition. Take the 2006 Boise State team that beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. They only played one team from a power conference in Oregon State, who eventually finished the year in the top 25. Apart from that, they played the likes of Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, and Idaho. Similar to NIU's Toledo, BSU also had a formidable team in their conference that year that finished 11-3 and 7-1 in the WAC in Hawaii. So while the easiness of schedule is comparable, the dominance is not. NIU beat a last place Kansas team by 7. BSU beat said Oregon State team who finished in the top 25, by 28. They rolled through their schedule, surviving a scare against San Jose State, but ultimately finishing undefeated. Due to Ohio State losing in the National Championship, they wound up as the only undefeated team that year. It was a memorable team, who played in one of the most memorable bowl games ever.
To be fair to NIU, they also had a stretch of conference games where they were blowing teams out, and they have yet to play their bowl game which could turn into a classic. Still, I wouldn't even call this NIU team the most memorable one in recent years. The team I would turn to would be the 2003 Huskies team led by Michael Turner. They started the year beating a top 20 Maryland team, went on the road and beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and beat Iowa State of the Big 12. Realize that the Iowa State win that year was the icing on the cake, whereas the Kansas win this year was a "big" deal. Unfortunately, that NIU team lost to a ranked Bowling Green team whose only losses that year were to #4 Ohio State and twice to a Ben Roethlisberger-led Miami of Ohio team, and rival Toledo, both games away from home. Due to the lack of bowl tie-ins, the 10-2 Huskies were left watching bowl games instead of playing in them. Instead of a worthy Huskies team, Northwestern, Kansas, and UCLA played in bowls, lost, and finished with losing records (6-7). Now the shoe is on the other foot due to the BCS system. It is for this reason that the Huskies deserve to be in the Orange Bowl.
The only teams that I do have sympathy for in this whole BCS mess are Georgia and Texas A&M. Georgia played the #2 ranked Crimson Tide hard and lost the game in a heart breaking way. I thought they would wind up beating the Tide and playing Notre Dame for the title. They improved greatly throughout the year and deserve a BCS bowl spot. A&M actually did beat that Crimson Tide team and had potential Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel electrifying stadiums all year. Their only losses were by three to #3 Florida and by five to #8 ranked LSU. But don't remove NIU to get those two great teams in there. Instead, if we're trying to keep mediocre teams out of the BCS, remove Louisville and Wisconsin.
Louisville won the Big East. Big whoop. One could easily make the argument that the MAC is better than the Big East overall. Unlike NIU, who played a ranked Kent State team, Louisville went the entire season without having to do so. While NIU's loss came by one to Iowa, Louisville was throttled by 7-5 Syracuse by 19 and lost in triple overtime to a 5-7 Connecticut team. They won by seven points or less in six of their ten wins, compared to four such wins for NIU. Wisconsin, meanwhile, might have destroyed Nebraska in the Big Ten title game, but their overall record is 8-5 and only 4-4 in the Big Ten. The only reason they were even there is because the two teams ahead of them in their division, Ohio State and Penn State, are ineligible to play in the Big Ten title game. The only ranked team they played this year was Nebraska, having lost in the regular season but winning when it counted. This is also a team that beat Northern Iowa and Utah State by a combined seven points. SEVEN! And these two teams belong in the BCS? That Mr. Herbstreit, is the true joke of the BCS.
Look, NIU can't change its schedule. They don't control who is in the MAC. They play who they play. Larger programs refuse to face NIU at home and, given NIU's recent success, refuse to play them at all. This is one of the reasons why Iowa played NIU at Soldier Field rather than a home and home. NIU beat everyone on their schedule besides that Iowa team, although it was only by one the first game of the season. The team wasn't nearly as good as it is now and they had their chances to win that game. After that game, they went on a tear, averaging 42 points per game the rest of the year. They hung 63 points on UMass and 55 on Central Michigan, both Divison I FBS teams. Before you write that off as just beating up on bad teams, realize that NIU's Orange Bowl opponent Florida State hung 55 on Savannah State. Savannah State is a Division I FCS or I-AA team who finished last in their conference this year. Clearly, despite a flawed BCS system, NIU deserves to be there. They won their conference, beating a tough Kent State team in the process, and finished with only one loss. It's not their fault the Georgias and A&Ms of the world got left out.
This may be one of the last years that something like this happens because of the approaching playoff system. I hope NIU takes advantage of it. It seems people are pushing this game to the side and ready to call it a blow out. Not so fast my friend. Hope comes in the form of Jordan Lynch and the Clemson game that Florida State won. Although they beat the Tigers, Clemson's quarterback Tajh Boyd presents similar problems for defenses that Lynch has. Both are more than capable runners and can throw the ball when called upon. Boyd threw for 237 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, and 44 rushing yards before the Tigers fell. If Lynch can have the kind of patience he displayed in the MAC title game, I think he can have success against this FSU defense. I do think some of the bounces and "lucky" plays will have to go NIU's way to win this game, but it will be closer than people think. Apart from the Fiesta Bowl (Oregon vs Kansas State), this is the bowl that you should tune into as far as the BCS is concerned.
BCS Bowl Matchups as it should be
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs Kansas State - They got this one right in what should be the best bowl game out of all of them, BCS or not
Orange Bowl: Florida vs Florida State - Rivalry game in a BCS bowl? Taking place in Miami? Yes please. All the legends would come back for that game. It would be great for the sport
Sugar Bowl: Stanford vs NIU - This would be a great game in my opinion with superstar Lynch going against freshman quarterback Kevin Hogan in a surprisingly evenly matched game. Also, putting this game in New Orleans would get rid of Stanford's closeness to the Rose Bowl and put NIU in a dome (see MAC Championship for NIU's success in domes)
Rose Bowl: Texas A&M vs Georgia - Regardless of who is playing, the Rose Bowl is always a big deal, so why not let the two SEC titans battle it out. Being in separate divisions kept them from playing each other this year. Manziel and veteran Aaron Murray would get to duke it out in what would be an exciting, high scoring affair
Matty O
Monday, November 5, 2012
Why You Should Get Behind The Colts
In sports, people are always looking for that feel good story. A team rising up against the odds to overcome some insurmountable obstacle. There seems to be one team almost every year that, from a neutral perspective, you can cheer for. The team this year is the Indianapolis Colts.
Before discussing their off the field story, let's examine their play on the field. I mentioned obstacles before, but that was only brushing the surface of this team. Their 2011-12 campaign saw their franchise quarterback miss the entire season, caused their head coach to get fired, and saw their season reach an 0-13 mark (they finished 2-14). Their defense, while never great, looked horrendous at times even with the likes of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, both four time pro bowlers. Their star wide receiver Reggie Wayne had a down year, leading some to question if his skills had declined as rumors circulated that he might leave the team, especially if Peyton Manning left.
As if turned out, with the Colts holding the number one pick in the draft, Manning decided to leave. Owner Jim Irsay hired a new head coach in Chuck Pagano and a new GM in Ryan Grigson. Wayne, surprisingly decided to stay to help lead in this new era for the Colts. The Colts selected Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, who was considered by many to be the most NFL ready of all the quarterbacks in his draft. While he may have had the skills, his players around him were a disaster. Jeff Saturday, Peyton's longtime, Pro Bowl center, left to join Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Outside of Wayne, they did not have a decent or known wide receiver on their roster. Their starting running back was Donald Brown, entering his fourth year in the league but never eclipsing more than 645 yards or 5 touchdowns in one season.
The Disney movie script for this is they went undefeated and Luck threw for a record number of yards. Well, not quite. it certainly did not help to face the Bears in Chicago for Luck's first game, especially seeing how well their defense has played this year. Having said that, even in a 41-21 loss, Luck did not look lost out there. Sure he threw three interceptions, but Tony Romo threw five against this defense. Luck threw for 309 yards, more yards than Romo, Rodgers, or Matthew Stafford threw against the Bears this year. There was a fair amount of pressure on him throughout the game, but he stayed strong in the pocket and made some good, strong throws. So while it might not have been Cam Newton's 422 yard rookie debut, it still showed signs of promise and growth.
The Colts first win came the following week against the Minnesota Vikings. While passing yards might have been his most impressive stat in his debut, his zero turnovers were the most impressive part in the Vikings game. He only threw for 224 yards and two touchdowns, but paced the game and seemed in more control than a rookie should be. In the meantime, he became comfortable with Wayne to the tune of 71 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. He also discovered a formidable number two receiver in Donnie Avery who gained 111 yards on nine catches. The Vikings had actually tied the game with 31 seconds left, setting up Luck's first game winning drive. He was able to get the Colts into field goal range as Adam Vinatieri knocked in a 53 yard field goal for the win.
After a heartbreaking loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars (Jags scored an 80 yard TD pass with 45 seconds left) the team received more bad news. New head coach Chuck Pagano had been diagnosed with promyelocytic leukemia and would be undergoing treatment at a nearby hospital. It is a serious condition with a high risk of remission, which could cause treatment to last for years. The players had rallied around Pagano, as he was able to keep the ship afloat even after the loss of Peyton Manning while installing a new coaching scheme. Unlike the Sean Payton situation in New Orleans, the Colts rallied around their situation and gave an emotional effort the likes of which had not been seen in a while.
Their next game after this incident was against the Green Bay Packers. The Pack were 2-2 going into that game, but their record was slightly misleading. They had played arguably the best defense at the time in the 49ers and lost their first game. Then they beat the Bears pretty soundly with the final score being 23-10. They followed that up with a loss in a hostile Seattle environment on Monday Night Football and may or may not have been robbed by the replacement officials. Their game before the Colts saw them fend off a desperate Saints team that seemed to give everything they had. The Saints came up short, however, 28-27.
Enter the Colts. Even though the emotion and desire to win for their coach was there, this seemed like quite the task. The Packers offense had struggled early on, but looked like they hit their stride against the Saints. Some might say that everyone can score on the Saints, but it's not like the Colts defense was doing all that well either. They let the Bears hang 41, the Vikings to post 20, and the lowly Jags to post 22. Now they faced MVP Aaron Rodgers who puts up video game numbers in the passing game. Oh boy.
The game started out like everyone thought. The Packers dominated on both sides of the ball and led 21-3 at half. Then in the third quarter, the Colts had an offensive explosion. Luck threw a TD and ran for one in the quarter as the defense posted a shutout. Add on a field goal and it was a 21-19 game. The Colts managed to actually grab the lead with a fourth quarter field goal, but Rodgers had the response. After a long Alex Green run, Rodgers found James Jones for an eight yard TD, although they missed the two point conversion. It was Packers 27, Colts 22 with 4:30 left to play.
Luck then drove the Colts 80 yards while missing only three out of eleven passes on the drive, ending in a four yard touchdown to Reggie Wayne. The crowd was going crazy, especially after Donald Brown was able to run in the two point conversion. The Colts now led 30-27 with 35 seconds left. Unfortunately, that's about all the time Rodgers needs. He went from his own 20 to the Colts 33 in three plays, not counting the spike to stop the clock. This set up a Mason Crosby 51 yard field goal, a lengthy kick but not unreasonable in the domed stadium of the Colts. Instead Crosby missed it wide right and the Colts won an improbable victory. After the game, they found out that Pagano had been released from the hospital and watched their win from the comfort of his own home. A great ending to a great day.
Fast forward to today. The Colts sit at 5-3 and are the 5th overall seed in the AFC. Bet no one saw that coming. Unfortunately Houston plays in their division so they would likely need to secure a wild card spot to get into the playoffs. Is it possible? Given the recent play of Andrew Luck (passed for a rookie record 433 yards yesterday against the Dolphins) I wouldn't count them out. Their remaining schedule is at Jacksonville, at New England, home against Buffalo, at Detroit, home against Tennessee, then a home and home with Houston with a game at Kansas City sandwiched between. The New England and two Houston games would be the only ones where it might be a stretch to pick them. Still, New England has lost to Arizona this year and the Houston games are at the end of the year. This may result in Houston resting some of their starters if they have the number one seed in the AFC locked up.
Not just that, but Coach Pagano was well enough to be able to give an emotional post game speech to his players in the locker room after their Dolphin victory. Doesn't get much better than that. So if you're not with the Bears, given up on the Cowboys (myself), or a diehard Jaguars fan, consider rooting for these guys. Luck is making people ask "RG-Who?" and their story with their coach is awesome. They might not win the Super Bowl, but they could have more fans than any team in the playoffs.
Before discussing their off the field story, let's examine their play on the field. I mentioned obstacles before, but that was only brushing the surface of this team. Their 2011-12 campaign saw their franchise quarterback miss the entire season, caused their head coach to get fired, and saw their season reach an 0-13 mark (they finished 2-14). Their defense, while never great, looked horrendous at times even with the likes of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, both four time pro bowlers. Their star wide receiver Reggie Wayne had a down year, leading some to question if his skills had declined as rumors circulated that he might leave the team, especially if Peyton Manning left.
As if turned out, with the Colts holding the number one pick in the draft, Manning decided to leave. Owner Jim Irsay hired a new head coach in Chuck Pagano and a new GM in Ryan Grigson. Wayne, surprisingly decided to stay to help lead in this new era for the Colts. The Colts selected Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, who was considered by many to be the most NFL ready of all the quarterbacks in his draft. While he may have had the skills, his players around him were a disaster. Jeff Saturday, Peyton's longtime, Pro Bowl center, left to join Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Outside of Wayne, they did not have a decent or known wide receiver on their roster. Their starting running back was Donald Brown, entering his fourth year in the league but never eclipsing more than 645 yards or 5 touchdowns in one season.
The Disney movie script for this is they went undefeated and Luck threw for a record number of yards. Well, not quite. it certainly did not help to face the Bears in Chicago for Luck's first game, especially seeing how well their defense has played this year. Having said that, even in a 41-21 loss, Luck did not look lost out there. Sure he threw three interceptions, but Tony Romo threw five against this defense. Luck threw for 309 yards, more yards than Romo, Rodgers, or Matthew Stafford threw against the Bears this year. There was a fair amount of pressure on him throughout the game, but he stayed strong in the pocket and made some good, strong throws. So while it might not have been Cam Newton's 422 yard rookie debut, it still showed signs of promise and growth.
The Colts first win came the following week against the Minnesota Vikings. While passing yards might have been his most impressive stat in his debut, his zero turnovers were the most impressive part in the Vikings game. He only threw for 224 yards and two touchdowns, but paced the game and seemed in more control than a rookie should be. In the meantime, he became comfortable with Wayne to the tune of 71 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. He also discovered a formidable number two receiver in Donnie Avery who gained 111 yards on nine catches. The Vikings had actually tied the game with 31 seconds left, setting up Luck's first game winning drive. He was able to get the Colts into field goal range as Adam Vinatieri knocked in a 53 yard field goal for the win.
After a heartbreaking loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars (Jags scored an 80 yard TD pass with 45 seconds left) the team received more bad news. New head coach Chuck Pagano had been diagnosed with promyelocytic leukemia and would be undergoing treatment at a nearby hospital. It is a serious condition with a high risk of remission, which could cause treatment to last for years. The players had rallied around Pagano, as he was able to keep the ship afloat even after the loss of Peyton Manning while installing a new coaching scheme. Unlike the Sean Payton situation in New Orleans, the Colts rallied around their situation and gave an emotional effort the likes of which had not been seen in a while.
Their next game after this incident was against the Green Bay Packers. The Pack were 2-2 going into that game, but their record was slightly misleading. They had played arguably the best defense at the time in the 49ers and lost their first game. Then they beat the Bears pretty soundly with the final score being 23-10. They followed that up with a loss in a hostile Seattle environment on Monday Night Football and may or may not have been robbed by the replacement officials. Their game before the Colts saw them fend off a desperate Saints team that seemed to give everything they had. The Saints came up short, however, 28-27.
Enter the Colts. Even though the emotion and desire to win for their coach was there, this seemed like quite the task. The Packers offense had struggled early on, but looked like they hit their stride against the Saints. Some might say that everyone can score on the Saints, but it's not like the Colts defense was doing all that well either. They let the Bears hang 41, the Vikings to post 20, and the lowly Jags to post 22. Now they faced MVP Aaron Rodgers who puts up video game numbers in the passing game. Oh boy.
The game started out like everyone thought. The Packers dominated on both sides of the ball and led 21-3 at half. Then in the third quarter, the Colts had an offensive explosion. Luck threw a TD and ran for one in the quarter as the defense posted a shutout. Add on a field goal and it was a 21-19 game. The Colts managed to actually grab the lead with a fourth quarter field goal, but Rodgers had the response. After a long Alex Green run, Rodgers found James Jones for an eight yard TD, although they missed the two point conversion. It was Packers 27, Colts 22 with 4:30 left to play.
Luck then drove the Colts 80 yards while missing only three out of eleven passes on the drive, ending in a four yard touchdown to Reggie Wayne. The crowd was going crazy, especially after Donald Brown was able to run in the two point conversion. The Colts now led 30-27 with 35 seconds left. Unfortunately, that's about all the time Rodgers needs. He went from his own 20 to the Colts 33 in three plays, not counting the spike to stop the clock. This set up a Mason Crosby 51 yard field goal, a lengthy kick but not unreasonable in the domed stadium of the Colts. Instead Crosby missed it wide right and the Colts won an improbable victory. After the game, they found out that Pagano had been released from the hospital and watched their win from the comfort of his own home. A great ending to a great day.
Fast forward to today. The Colts sit at 5-3 and are the 5th overall seed in the AFC. Bet no one saw that coming. Unfortunately Houston plays in their division so they would likely need to secure a wild card spot to get into the playoffs. Is it possible? Given the recent play of Andrew Luck (passed for a rookie record 433 yards yesterday against the Dolphins) I wouldn't count them out. Their remaining schedule is at Jacksonville, at New England, home against Buffalo, at Detroit, home against Tennessee, then a home and home with Houston with a game at Kansas City sandwiched between. The New England and two Houston games would be the only ones where it might be a stretch to pick them. Still, New England has lost to Arizona this year and the Houston games are at the end of the year. This may result in Houston resting some of their starters if they have the number one seed in the AFC locked up.
Not just that, but Coach Pagano was well enough to be able to give an emotional post game speech to his players in the locker room after their Dolphin victory. Doesn't get much better than that. So if you're not with the Bears, given up on the Cowboys (myself), or a diehard Jaguars fan, consider rooting for these guys. Luck is making people ask "RG-Who?" and their story with their coach is awesome. They might not win the Super Bowl, but they could have more fans than any team in the playoffs.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Pro vs College
I was watching Mike and Mike this morning and they were discussing an interesting notion of the best college team in a sport going up against the worst pro team in a sport. They brought up some great points and reasoning on who might win. The two sports they covered were basketball and football.
This whole discussion stemmed from comments South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier made when he claimed Alabama, the number one team in the country, could beat some NFL teams and claimed Vegas odds makers might favor Alabama by a bit. Hold on there. Vegas odds makers actually did, and after analyzing everything, gave the Jaguars a 24 point spread. That is absolutely ridiculous and whoever made that spread should not be making spreads anymore. The best point Mike and Mike brought up is the fact that the NFL is such a team game. An NFL roster is made up of 53 people. Obviously there are 11 starters on defense, and 11 on offense. The issue is that most of those starters do not play the whole game. If you include special teams, pretty much everyone that suits up for a game, barring injury, will play.
That is one of the main issues. I suppose you could make a case that Alabama's starters could hang for a series or two against the Jags starters, but Alabama's reserves would get destroyed by the Jags reserves. Realize the Jags players get NFL type workouts, professional diets, and do this for a living. As good as this Alabama team is, many of them won't sniff the pros. Starting quarterback AJ McCarron has struggled in the past against elite college defenses such as LSU. Realize that Aaron Rodgers recently struggled against the "bad" Jags defense. McCarron and Rodgers aren't even in the same class yet, to cover a 24 point spread, McCarron will have to lead at least a few drives down the field. Not going to happen.
The last difference with football is the sheer size of players. The NFL and NCAA have a rule in place to keep kids in college for a longer period before they go to the pros. This is smart for safety reasons. There are certainly some big, scary players in college. But the scariest linebacker in college couldn't hold a candle to Ray Lewis or Patrick Willis. These college kids would get crushed. Quarterbacks are usually the ones getting all the publicity about staying in school, but I think they are the ones that are able to come out earlier. They really don't need to bulk up and should stay in school only to either achieve personal goals, earn their degree, or get better mentally. All other positions should stay in school all four years to have extra years with their lifting program and to bulk up before they start seeing the likes of Lewis and Willis running full speed to take their head off.
Last year's basketball situation, however, provides a different story. That Kentucky team last year was probably the best college basketball team I've ever seen. I understand that, unlike potentially Alabama football this year, they did not go undefeated. They lost in the SEC tournament, which I still can't explain, and in Indiana. The Indiana game I can forgive them for because that was one of the most loud and hostile environments I had ever seen. Indiana also turned out to be a really good squad and gave Kentucky a run for their money in the NCAA tournament before losing in a 102-90 shootout. But look at that score. 100 points! Obviously their defense was shaky that game, but college teams usually only drop triple digits on the Illinois State's of the world. Not a top 20 team. Their starting five was simply scary from a skill standpoint.
Anthony Davis (#1 overall pick), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (#2 overall pick), Terrence Jones (#18 overall pick), Marquis Teague (#29 overall pick, Go Bulls), and Doron Lamb (#42 overall pick). Darius Miller, one of their bench players, was also taken as the number 46 overall pick. Davis was so good that he actually played on the US Olympic team. Even though this was more so the result of injuries to other big men, he still contributed and made a great first impression playing with the big boys. On the flip side of this, you have the Charlotte Bobcats from a year ago.
My goodness what a bad team. The Not Top 10 on Sportscenter just became a Bobcats highlight reel. The best squad they could probably put out there would be DJ Augustin, Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson, Bismack Biyombo, and Derrick Brown. To be fair, all these players, except for Brown, were first round draft picks (Brown went in the second round, 40th overall). The problem is they were all selected by the Bobcats. Given Michael Jordan's prowess for drafting busts, it makes the first round thing kind of irrelevant when equating it to actual skill. Mike and Mike were suggesting that unlike football, this matchup would be a playoff like seven game series. I think this actually gives Kentucky a huge advantage.
For those of you that don't watch college basketball, Rupp Arena, where Kentucky plays, is a madhouse. People are gaga for their basketball there and the place is always sold out and rocking no matter who they play. The Bobcats meanwhile, recently offered a deal where fans could purchase this year's season tickets and get next year's for free, just to get more people in the seats. That is an unheard of deal and exemplifies the sorry state the Bobcats are in (personally, if I lived in Charlotte I probably would have gotten in on that deal. A free season of basketball? Insane). I feel that NBA arenas in general are not nearly as raucous or hard to play in as places like Rupp Arena, Cameron Indoor Stadium at Duke, or Fogg Allen Fieldhouse at Kansas. I think the Wildcats would actually sweep at home, meaning they would only need to steal one in Charlotte. Although the home court would certainly help, that is not the only thing going for Kentucky.
Unlike football, you don't have to be extremely bulked up to compete at an NBA level. It certainly helps, as Lebron James has shown by becoming more explosive as he gets stronger, but is not a necessity. James did well coming straight out of high school. While this may be an extreme example given James's unique athleticism, the discrepancy is not as great as in football. I think that length is much more important, which Anthony Davis has in spades.
If Kentucky were to win this matchup, I think that is where they do it. Davis inside blocking shots, and using his unique ability to pass and jump shoot, would be the difference. I actually think the Bobcats have favorable matchups with Kemba and Henderson. Both are great slashers and cutters to the basket and can shoot when called upon. Henderson and Kemba are probably the best defensive players on that team as well so they could make it difficult to get the ball to Davis or have Gilchrist put up his jump shot. I still think that Kentucky would be able to exploit their other matchups and give Charlotte a hard time.
The final difference between the basketball debate and the football debate is that apart from the starters in basketball, most other guys don't play. In last year's National Championship game against a very good Kansas Jayhawks team, the Wildcats only played three players from their bench. Darius Miller, who was drafted, played 25 minutes, while Eloy Vargas and Kyle Wiltjer only played three minutes each. So essentially Kentucky played six people the whole game. Three minutes in basketball is not enough to cause a substantial change in my opinion. Yes a team could go on a run, but as a coach you can slow the game down or limit the amount of times the backups touch the ball. Football is not the same.
I've seen times where a backup offensive lineman comes into a game, gets dominated by the defensive lineman, forces a fumble, and causes a turnover. Special teams could probably expose those problems even more because those players usually are the backups on defense and offense. NFL backups can work over college ones, which I guarantee would cause at least one turnover and terrible field position for the college team, in this case Alabama.
Maybe I'm giving too much credit to the Jags and Wildcats and not enough to Alabama and Charlotte. Honestly though, Alabama would get blown off the line if they played the Jags and 24 points might be the spread at halftime. I would crank that up to about 50 if you wanted a fair spread for that game. Kentucky-Charlotte would be a much more interesting proposition but given how poorly the Bobcats played and the way Kentucky dominated the college basketball scene last year, it is certainly plausible the Wildcats could pull it off in a seven game series, and certainly in just one game. While the ratings and publicity for those matchups would be great, for now we'll have to settle for Alabama-LSU, Jacksonville-Detroit, Charlotte-Indiana, and Kentucky-Maryland. Enjoy.
Matty O
This whole discussion stemmed from comments South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier made when he claimed Alabama, the number one team in the country, could beat some NFL teams and claimed Vegas odds makers might favor Alabama by a bit. Hold on there. Vegas odds makers actually did, and after analyzing everything, gave the Jaguars a 24 point spread. That is absolutely ridiculous and whoever made that spread should not be making spreads anymore. The best point Mike and Mike brought up is the fact that the NFL is such a team game. An NFL roster is made up of 53 people. Obviously there are 11 starters on defense, and 11 on offense. The issue is that most of those starters do not play the whole game. If you include special teams, pretty much everyone that suits up for a game, barring injury, will play.
That is one of the main issues. I suppose you could make a case that Alabama's starters could hang for a series or two against the Jags starters, but Alabama's reserves would get destroyed by the Jags reserves. Realize the Jags players get NFL type workouts, professional diets, and do this for a living. As good as this Alabama team is, many of them won't sniff the pros. Starting quarterback AJ McCarron has struggled in the past against elite college defenses such as LSU. Realize that Aaron Rodgers recently struggled against the "bad" Jags defense. McCarron and Rodgers aren't even in the same class yet, to cover a 24 point spread, McCarron will have to lead at least a few drives down the field. Not going to happen.
The last difference with football is the sheer size of players. The NFL and NCAA have a rule in place to keep kids in college for a longer period before they go to the pros. This is smart for safety reasons. There are certainly some big, scary players in college. But the scariest linebacker in college couldn't hold a candle to Ray Lewis or Patrick Willis. These college kids would get crushed. Quarterbacks are usually the ones getting all the publicity about staying in school, but I think they are the ones that are able to come out earlier. They really don't need to bulk up and should stay in school only to either achieve personal goals, earn their degree, or get better mentally. All other positions should stay in school all four years to have extra years with their lifting program and to bulk up before they start seeing the likes of Lewis and Willis running full speed to take their head off.
Last year's basketball situation, however, provides a different story. That Kentucky team last year was probably the best college basketball team I've ever seen. I understand that, unlike potentially Alabama football this year, they did not go undefeated. They lost in the SEC tournament, which I still can't explain, and in Indiana. The Indiana game I can forgive them for because that was one of the most loud and hostile environments I had ever seen. Indiana also turned out to be a really good squad and gave Kentucky a run for their money in the NCAA tournament before losing in a 102-90 shootout. But look at that score. 100 points! Obviously their defense was shaky that game, but college teams usually only drop triple digits on the Illinois State's of the world. Not a top 20 team. Their starting five was simply scary from a skill standpoint.
Anthony Davis (#1 overall pick), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (#2 overall pick), Terrence Jones (#18 overall pick), Marquis Teague (#29 overall pick, Go Bulls), and Doron Lamb (#42 overall pick). Darius Miller, one of their bench players, was also taken as the number 46 overall pick. Davis was so good that he actually played on the US Olympic team. Even though this was more so the result of injuries to other big men, he still contributed and made a great first impression playing with the big boys. On the flip side of this, you have the Charlotte Bobcats from a year ago.
My goodness what a bad team. The Not Top 10 on Sportscenter just became a Bobcats highlight reel. The best squad they could probably put out there would be DJ Augustin, Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson, Bismack Biyombo, and Derrick Brown. To be fair, all these players, except for Brown, were first round draft picks (Brown went in the second round, 40th overall). The problem is they were all selected by the Bobcats. Given Michael Jordan's prowess for drafting busts, it makes the first round thing kind of irrelevant when equating it to actual skill. Mike and Mike were suggesting that unlike football, this matchup would be a playoff like seven game series. I think this actually gives Kentucky a huge advantage.
For those of you that don't watch college basketball, Rupp Arena, where Kentucky plays, is a madhouse. People are gaga for their basketball there and the place is always sold out and rocking no matter who they play. The Bobcats meanwhile, recently offered a deal where fans could purchase this year's season tickets and get next year's for free, just to get more people in the seats. That is an unheard of deal and exemplifies the sorry state the Bobcats are in (personally, if I lived in Charlotte I probably would have gotten in on that deal. A free season of basketball? Insane). I feel that NBA arenas in general are not nearly as raucous or hard to play in as places like Rupp Arena, Cameron Indoor Stadium at Duke, or Fogg Allen Fieldhouse at Kansas. I think the Wildcats would actually sweep at home, meaning they would only need to steal one in Charlotte. Although the home court would certainly help, that is not the only thing going for Kentucky.
Unlike football, you don't have to be extremely bulked up to compete at an NBA level. It certainly helps, as Lebron James has shown by becoming more explosive as he gets stronger, but is not a necessity. James did well coming straight out of high school. While this may be an extreme example given James's unique athleticism, the discrepancy is not as great as in football. I think that length is much more important, which Anthony Davis has in spades.
If Kentucky were to win this matchup, I think that is where they do it. Davis inside blocking shots, and using his unique ability to pass and jump shoot, would be the difference. I actually think the Bobcats have favorable matchups with Kemba and Henderson. Both are great slashers and cutters to the basket and can shoot when called upon. Henderson and Kemba are probably the best defensive players on that team as well so they could make it difficult to get the ball to Davis or have Gilchrist put up his jump shot. I still think that Kentucky would be able to exploit their other matchups and give Charlotte a hard time.
The final difference between the basketball debate and the football debate is that apart from the starters in basketball, most other guys don't play. In last year's National Championship game against a very good Kansas Jayhawks team, the Wildcats only played three players from their bench. Darius Miller, who was drafted, played 25 minutes, while Eloy Vargas and Kyle Wiltjer only played three minutes each. So essentially Kentucky played six people the whole game. Three minutes in basketball is not enough to cause a substantial change in my opinion. Yes a team could go on a run, but as a coach you can slow the game down or limit the amount of times the backups touch the ball. Football is not the same.
I've seen times where a backup offensive lineman comes into a game, gets dominated by the defensive lineman, forces a fumble, and causes a turnover. Special teams could probably expose those problems even more because those players usually are the backups on defense and offense. NFL backups can work over college ones, which I guarantee would cause at least one turnover and terrible field position for the college team, in this case Alabama.
Maybe I'm giving too much credit to the Jags and Wildcats and not enough to Alabama and Charlotte. Honestly though, Alabama would get blown off the line if they played the Jags and 24 points might be the spread at halftime. I would crank that up to about 50 if you wanted a fair spread for that game. Kentucky-Charlotte would be a much more interesting proposition but given how poorly the Bobcats played and the way Kentucky dominated the college basketball scene last year, it is certainly plausible the Wildcats could pull it off in a seven game series, and certainly in just one game. While the ratings and publicity for those matchups would be great, for now we'll have to settle for Alabama-LSU, Jacksonville-Detroit, Charlotte-Indiana, and Kentucky-Maryland. Enjoy.
Matty O
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