What a wild Week 1 it was in the fantasy football world. There were injuries, unexpected studs and duds, as well as predictable performances. This article will address notable trends or things that happened in Week 1 and whether you should write it off as a Week 1 anomaly (No Deal) or take it as a sign of things to come (Big Deal). I'll provide at least one nugget of info for each NFL team.
Arizona: Andre Ellington hurt (Big Deal)
Ellington has struggled with injuries since coming into the league in 2012 and 2015 started with more of the same. Reports are that Ellington strained his PCL, leaving him out 2-3 weeks. Chris and David Johnson have a chance to take over the Cards' backfield while Ellington is out. Ellington is shaping up as a bust already and is no sure bet to remain healthy once he returns to the field.
Atlanta: Julio Jones' dominance (Big Deal)
Jones was absolutely unstoppable Monday Night, despite being matched up against Philly's new star corner Byron Maxwell. He was targeted early and often and should benefit from an aging Roddy White and the Falcons showing mild success in the run game. This is a strong start to my prediction that he will be the number one overall fantasy WR this year.
Baltimore: Offensive ineptitude (No Deal)
The Ravens looked a mess against the Broncos in Week 1, but I expect a lot of teams to look that way against this attacking Broncos' defense this year. I think this was just a bad way to start the year for Baltimore on the road against one of the top defenses in the league. Luckily, they get a nice bounce back opponent in Oakland this weekend. Look for Justin Forsett and Steve Smith to put up their normal numbers.
Buffalo: Sammy Watkins shutout (Big Deal)
Things were already bleak for Watkins owners before Week 1 as Tyrod Taylor is not known for his arm, and head coach Rex Ryan would love to pound the football as much as possible. Fellow WR Percy Harvin actually managed to have a good game, but he's also had flashes of greatness with the Vikings and Seahawks only to fall flat the next week. I think Watkins has one or two good games this year, but who knows when those will take place? Watkins was likely drafted by many as a starter, but will probably be riding the bench after a zero point performance in Week 1.
Carolina: Greg Olsen held to one catch for 11 yards (No Deal)
Unlike Watkins, Olsen has a QB that he is comfortable with that has shown he will gladly funnel targets Olsens' way. It just didn't happen in Week 1. The Panthers pounded the ball against the hapless Jags, but likely will need to air it out more in this week's game against Houston. With no other reliable passing options beyond Olsen, expect a bounce back game this week and moving forward.
Chicago: Matt Forte's offensive involvement (Big Deal)
What a start for Forte! There was a lot of talk in the offseason about how Forte might lose some of his fantasy value with Mark Trestman leaving, but Forte looked even better this year as he racked up 141 carries on 24 yards and finished second on the team with eight targets in the passing game. They even split him out in the slot when they went with an empty backfield. His usage in the Green Bay game reminded me of Le'Veon Bell last year, who just so happened to finish as the number one overall RB in fantasy in 2014.
Cincinnati: Tyler Eifert breaks out (Big Deal)
I mentioned Eifert in my Fantasy Breakdown series as a potential sleeper, mainly because he had the TE position all to himself in 2015 with Jermaine Gresham in Arizona. I didn't think he would have such a successful debut though. Eifert was targeted 12 times and racked up 104 yards and two TDs in a blowout over the Raiders. With teams focusing on AJ Green, it should leave Eifert open in the slot and down the seams. Health permitting, Eifert could be the steal of a lot of people's drafts.
Cleveland: Offensive ineptitude (Big Deal)
Unlike the Ravens, I don't think Cleveland will bounce back. They looked dreadful on the offensive side of the ball. I know the Jets are a good defense, but they are now down to Johnny Manziel as their QB. While he did throw the only TD for the Browns of the game, he was also picked and lost two fumbles. The running stats might be even more hilarious as QB Josh McCown managed to out rush RBs Duke Johnson and Isiah Crowell. Looks like a long year for this team.
Dallas: Joseph Randle out-touches Darren McFadden 19-7 (Big Deal)
The Cowboys' backfield was a complete mystery coming into this year, but it looks like we got a bit of clarity. Randle is the lead back with McFadden picking up the scraps, while Lance Dunbar works as more of a WR than a true RB. So long as he stays out of trouble off the field, Randle should continue to dominate touches in the Cowboy backfield, with Dunbar being a valuable player in PPR leagues if Dallas has to play from behind like they did Sunday night.
Denver: Peyton Manning throws for 175 yards, zero TDs (Big Deal)
Maybe this is like Tom Brady from last year where he struggles early and comes on towards the end. Unfortunately, Manning struggled at the end of last year and looked off once again on Sunday. He was still his usual self calling plays at the line of scrimmage, but his deep ball was off, allowing the Ravens to condense their defense and put the clamps down on this offense as a whole. While I wouldn't bench Manning, I would have another QB in mind to add to your bench just in case things don't turn around. The Broncos go to Arrowhead this Thursday.
Detroit: Ameer Abdullah outplays Joique Bell (Big Deal)
In the preseason, you were either on the Abdullah hype train or you weren't. After Week 1, that train just got a whole lot fuller. While he only got one more carry than Bell, Abdullah easily outplayed him by totaling 50 rushing yards, 44 receiving yards, and one rushing TD. The Lions have been trying to become a more balanced team and they might finally have the RB to carry the load. I wouldn't be surprised if Bell is phased almost completely out of the picture by the Lions' Week 9 bye.
Green Bay: James Jones' 2 TDs (No Deal)
I could be completely off here, but I think that Jones just had his best game he will have this season, and he did it on a lot of people's benches and waiver wires. He's still the number three WR behind Davonte Adams and Randall Cobb, both of whom were targeted more than Jones. He might have the chemistry with Rodgers, but Adams and Cobb are more talented players. I like both of them over the long haul. Jones will be a TD-dependent, inconsistent option at best this season. He could very well get shutout this week if he draws Richard Sherman.
Houston: Backfield committee (Big Deal)
With Arian Foster injured, there was a chance for one of these Houston backs to emerge and take the starting job while he is out. Unfortunately, that didn't happen with Alfred Blue, Chris Polk, and Jonathan Grimes getting almost the same number of carries. I'm on record having said that I think Polk is the best of the bunch, but unfortunately I'm not on the coaching staff. This backfield may be a situation to avoid until Foster's return.
Indianapolis: Frank Gore totals 31 yards, zero TDs (No Deal)
The Colt offense struggled as a whole against the Bills, but at least Andrew Luck was able to deliver 2 TD passes and TY Hilton was able to snag seven balls for 88 yards. Gore, the other highly drafted Colt, was hardly a factor in the game and was completely bottled up. Everyone has been saying for years that this will be the year that Gore finally declines, but I think he'll still be okay. Week 2 against the Jets will probably give him another dud, but he should clear up after that. His backups Josh Robinson and Tyler Varga did little to impress in their limited action.
Jacksonville: Allen Robinson held to one catch, 27 yards (No Deal)
Robinson had a lot of factors working against him this game. He missed some time with a foot injury (he did return), was matched up against one of the better unknown corners in the league in Josh Norman, and was facing a Panthers team that had a running game plan in mind and held the ball for almost ten minutes more than the Jags. Like all the Jags' players, inconsistency is to be expected, but they should be trailing in most of their games, giving Robinson plenty of opportunities to catch balls, particularly with Julius Thomas out. Robinson did still see six targets.
Kansas City: Travis Kelce goes for 106 yards, 2 TDs (Big Deal)
Similar to Eifert of the Bengals, all Kelce needed was for the guy in front of him to go away. Limited by Anthony Fasano's presence last year, Kelce exploded to start 2015 as the Chiefs' main TE and passing weapon. He was consistently open and was an easy target for Alex Smith. While the Chiefs still can't get a WR in the end zone, expect Kelce to many times this season.
Miami: Offense struggles vs Redskins (No Deal)
This one is no deal, but with a bit of nervousness. I can understand the Dolphins struggling in the run game as Washington is stout in that category, but Ryan Tannehill should have carved up that secondary. While he was efficient, the Dolphins only mustered 10 offensive points and Tannehill threw for only 226 yards. That was good for 17th among Week 1 QBs, behind Brian Hoyer who didn't even finish the game. They get a break this week playing Jacksonville, but things could get ugly in Weeks 3 and 4 as the Bills and Jets come to town.
Minnesota: Adrian Peterson flops in return to field (No Deal)
For starters, I was absolutely shocked that Minnesota went with passing plays on their first possession leading to a three and out. Secondly, I don't think anyone expected the 49ers' defense to be that good this year. They not only ruined AP's night, but they made Bridgewater look absolutely lost out there. AP lined up in the shotgun a lot, which is not his style, so hopefully the Vikings go with bigger sets in the future. Just give him the ball, let the defense stack the box, and let him rumble.
New England: Dion Lewis gets 19 touches (Big Deal)
Obviously part of Lewis' usage was due to Legarrette Blount being suspended, but I still think Lewis has established himself in the Shane Vereen receiving RB role. He looked quick and decisive and caught four of his five targets for 51 yards. The Pats' backfield will always be opponent dependent, but when they play teams with stout defensive fronts (Jets, Bills), I expect Lewis to deliver, particularly in PPR leagues.
New Orleans: Mark Ingram catches eight balls for 98 yards (No Deal)
Ingram owners might take this as a great sign, but keep in mind that CJ Spiller was out this game and has a chance to come back in Week 2. He will be the unquestioned featured back in the passing game. Ingram will continue to get his carries, but don't treat Ingram as some kind of PPR maven all of a sudden. Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston also had down games, which I don't expect to happen often. Hope you enjoyed the Ingram PPR points while they lasted.
New York Giants: Odell Beckham Jr catches five passes for 44 yards (No Deal)
Beckham, a popular dark horse to finish as the number one overall WR this year, struggled in his 2015 debut. The Cowboys constantly were rolling safeties over the top of him, preventing any long, big plays. I wouldn't be too worried though as he was still targeted a team high eight times. Division rivals know each other well, so I expect him to have a bounce back game in an out of division matchup against the Falcons this week.
New York Jets: Chris Ivory is the Jets' workhorse (Big Deal)
Ivory mashed the Browns on the ground, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, totaling 90 yards and two rushing TDs. He probably would have had more if the game hadn't gotten out of hand and the Jets letting Bilal Powell finish out of the fourth quarter. Health will always be a concern for Ivory, but he should see 20+ carries weekly in the Jets' backfield. Feel free to upgrade him to a RB1, particularly against the Colts this coming Monday Night.
Oakland: Amari Cooper doesn't live up to hype (Big Deal)
I still think Cooper is a talented player, but the team situation that he is in is terrible for his value. Derek Carr was less than impressive before he got injured, and Matt McGloin did his damage when the game was well out of reach. Cooper also has to compete with Michael Crabtree for targets as Cooper only got one more target than Crabtree and the same number of catches (5). Cooper will be matched up against top corners week in and week out and still has to face Jimmy Smith, Joe Haden, Darrelle Revis, and Chris Harris (twice). He'll have good weeks in plus matchups, but he'll have less good performances than expected by those that took a chance on the rookie.
Philadelphia: Eagles' run game sputters (No Deal)
Despite the perception of this high flying, up tempo attack, Chip Kelly's offense is really built around the run game. They were unable to establish the line of scrimmage, limiting DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews to 13 yards combined. In fact, it was Darren Sproles who stole the show carrying the football as he toted it five times for 50 yards. I think the Eagles will make more of a commitment to the run in the weeks to come, though there is some concern that their defense will put them in positions where they have to play catch up. Bradford threw the ball a ridiculous 52 times on Monday Night. I don't expect him to come close to that many attempts for the rest of the season.
Pittsburgh: Big Ben throws for 351, one interception, one garbage time TD (No Deal/Big Deal)
It's no deal in the sense that I think he will improve upon these numbers, but it is a big deal if you bought into the idea that the Steelers would be able to throw the ball all over the place like last year and Big Ben would be a top five QB. They were without Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant, but their second WR Markus Wheaton, failed to step up to the plate once again and played poorly. If it weren't for Antonio Brown's skills and Heath Miller's reliability, Ben's line could have looked much worse. I think people fell in love with Big Ben's back to back six TD games last season and expected similar dominance this year. Not so fast my friend.
Saint Louis: Rams out gain Seahawks in total yardage (Big Deal)
The fact that the Rams beat the Seahawks didn't surprise me so much as how well the Rams played offensively. This team was known for their defense, but starting Benny Cunningham at RB and listing Brian Quick, their best WR, as a healthy scratch, had the makings of a blowout in favor of Seattle. Instead, Nick Foles finished with a 115.8 passer rating and threw the game winning TD in the waning moments of the game. Once the Rams get Tre Mason and possibly Todd Gurley healthy, they might actually have some fantasy relevant pieces, despite many, including myself, doubting they would even have one.
San Diego: Danny Woodhead outplays Melvin Gordon (Big Deal)
I warned people about this heading into 2015 and the first game of the year played out just like I predicted. Gordon got some between the 20s looks, but when it came down to the red zone, the Chargers simply trusted Woodhead more. Woodhead found the end zone two times and was his usual self out catching passes out of the backfield, hauling in four receptions for 20 yards. Gordon's 14 carries did lead the Chargers RBs, but without the TDs, Gordon will be a borderline bench player, despite being drafted as a RB2 by some people.
San Francisco: Carlos Hyde runs wild (Big Deal)
Everything about how the 49ers played on Monday Night shocked me, including Hyde. Hyde showed a surprising amount of quickness having being pigeonholed as a rumbling between the tackles back, and racked up 168 yards and 2 TDs on the Vikes defense. The Niners clearly want to continue to pound the football, and so long as their defense plays in dominant fashion, they should be able to. I try not to overreact to Week 1, but it was hard not to watch that game and think this Niners team could be a real threat in the NFC.
Seattle: Tyler Lockett totals 119 return yards on four kicks, scores once (Big Deal)
This kid is the real deal. A rookie out of Kansas State, Lockett is the new Devin Hester in the NFL, except he also can make noise on offense as well. While he might help some leagues that count return yards, he will help all owners of the Seattle D/ST with his return TDs. He is electric every time he touches the football and Pete Carroll is trying to work him into the offense as well.
Tampa Bay: Jameis Winston's terrible debut (Big Deal)
It's not so much Winston's fault as it is the people around him. The Bucs have multiple rookies on the offensive line and have their best receiving weapon in Mike Evans injured at the moment. Head coach Lovie Smith has never had incredible offenses anyways, and their defense looks putrid enough to put the Bucs in a lot of holes this year. With the Falcons showing an improved defense and Carolina still looking stout on D, expect the Bucs to wind up with a single digit draft pick in the 2016 draft, and for Winston's rookie numbers to look anything but impressive.
Tennessee: Marcus Mariota's wonderful debut (Big Deal/No Deal)
Similar to Big Ben, there's two sides to the coin here. It's a big deal in that I think he will be successful this year, but no deal if you think he's throwing for four TDs that easily every week. Mariota had a perfect passer rating and four TDs, but only had to throw the ball 16 times. I'd like to see how he performs when his defense has to face a great offense and Mariota has to use his arm to keep up. He is very startable in this week's matchup against the Browns, but will have to keep up with Andrew Luck in Week 3, then faces the Bills' D in Week 4. Let's see where he stands after that.
Washington: Alfred Morris runs for 121 on 25 carries (Big Deal)
There really wasn't too much to take away from this game apart from the fact that DeSean Jackson got injured. I think we all expected the Skins' pass game to be below average and Jordan Reed and Pierre Garcon to be the main targets. Morris' 121 yards stood out, however, because this Dolphin defense added Ndamukong Suh in the offseason to plug up the run. Morris was able to average 4.8 yards per carry and was the clear workhorse in the backfield. If they can get closer to the end zone more times than they did on Sunday, Morris will continue to be a solid and steady RB2, no matter who is behind center.
Matty O
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
Sunday, September 6, 2015
2015 AFC Outlook
Defending Champs: New England Patriots
I had my questions about the Pats prior to Brady being freed from suspension, and those questions still linger despite Brady having his four game suspension nullified. On the offensive side, their two leading receivers from last year, Brandon LaFell and Julian Edelman, have been struggling with injuries this offseason, with LaFell winding up on the reserve/PUP list to start the year, meaning he won't be available until Week 8. While Rob Gronkowski had a monster season last year, don't forget that 2014 was his first injury-free season since 2011. They also surprisingly released Jonas Gray, who was their leading rusher last season. I know that LeGarrette Blount did well down the stretch, but all that leaves in the Pats' backfield is Blount, Brandon Bolden, and James White. Defensively, they lost star cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis, and are counting on guys like Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan to replace them. Bill Belichick has a knack for getting the most out of no-name players, but eventually the Pats are going to experience a drop off. With the rest of their division improving in the offseason, I think 2015 is the year we see the Pats decline.
Most Likely To Fall Off: Pittsburgh Steelers
Obviously the Pats would be my choice if I had not written about them above, so I'll go with the offensively scary, defensively porous Steelers. Last season, the Steelers made the playoffs behind a career year from Ben Roethlisberger and a schedule that saw them play only two playoff teams outside their division (Panthers, Colts). This year, they face the AFC and NFC West (at Seattle in Week 12), along with going to New England to open the season and playing the Colts a week after their visit to Seattle. Le'Veon Bell is suspended for the first two games, budding young WR Martavis Bryant is suspended for the first four games, and Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey is injured and won't be back until around Week 12. Their defense is still extremely suspect and is unlikely to improve significantly upon their 18th overall total defense ranking last season. Some people view this team as a Super Bowl contender, but in a division that got three teams to the playoffs last year, I think the Steelers could be struggling to fight for a Wild Card spot.
Most Likely To Surprise: Miami Dolphins
On paper, this team looks like an elite club. Ryan Tannehill continues to improve at QB each season, and the Dolphins' front office has done an excellent job surrounding him with weapons for this upcoming season. Lamar Miller and Jarvis Landry were already there, but they added TE Jordan Cameron and WR Kenny Stills, along with drafting WR DeVante Parker and RB Jay Ajayi. Reports are that star left tackle Branden Albert will be ready for Week 1, giving Tannehill one less thing to worry about. Defensively, this team made the biggest offseason splash by landing defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. He will plop down right in the middle of edge rushers Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon. Those three should terrorize QBs from the get go, allowing Pro Bowl cornerback Brent Grimes to capitalize on badly thrown footballs. The hype train for the Dolphins has been rolling for a couple years now and I think they finally have the pieces in place to break through.
Team With The Most To Prove: Indianapolis Colts
Although Andrew Luck seemed to be inducted into the Hall of Fame from the day he was drafted, he has yet to translate that into postseason success. The Colts are in arguably the weakest division in football, giving them fairly easy access to the playoffs year after year. Despite this, they have been absolutely destroyed by the Patriots the last two seasons in the playoffs, and were crushed by the Ravens in 2012 as well. I know he's only in his fourth year, but it's time for Luck to start putting up his regular season numbers in the playoffs. Thankfully for Luck, he now has new veteran teammates in Frank Gore and Andre Johnson, as well as 2015 first round WR Phillip Dorsett. This should be one of, if not the, best offenses in the league. The defense, however, is a problem. Vontae Davis is a legit shutdown corner, but their run defense is abysmal and doesn't project to be much better in 2015. The Colts can throw it all they want, but when they run into teams like the Ravens and Patriots who are more than willing to just pound the ball inside, then they crumble as a team. Again, maybe I'm being too hard on Luck considering he's still pretty young, but with a free pass to the playoffs on a yearly basis, it's time to start performing much better against the big boys in the AFC.
Division by Division Final Standings
East
1. Dolphins
2. Patriots
3. Bills
4. Jets
North
1. Ravens
2. Bengals
3. Steelers
4. Browns
South
1. Colts
2. Texans
3. Jaguars
4. Titans
West
1. Broncos
2. Chiefs
3. Chargers
4. Raiders
Playoff Seeding
1. Colts
2. Ravens
3. Broncos
4. Dolphins
WC1. Chiefs
WC2. Patriots
Matty O
I had my questions about the Pats prior to Brady being freed from suspension, and those questions still linger despite Brady having his four game suspension nullified. On the offensive side, their two leading receivers from last year, Brandon LaFell and Julian Edelman, have been struggling with injuries this offseason, with LaFell winding up on the reserve/PUP list to start the year, meaning he won't be available until Week 8. While Rob Gronkowski had a monster season last year, don't forget that 2014 was his first injury-free season since 2011. They also surprisingly released Jonas Gray, who was their leading rusher last season. I know that LeGarrette Blount did well down the stretch, but all that leaves in the Pats' backfield is Blount, Brandon Bolden, and James White. Defensively, they lost star cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis, and are counting on guys like Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan to replace them. Bill Belichick has a knack for getting the most out of no-name players, but eventually the Pats are going to experience a drop off. With the rest of their division improving in the offseason, I think 2015 is the year we see the Pats decline.
Most Likely To Fall Off: Pittsburgh Steelers
Obviously the Pats would be my choice if I had not written about them above, so I'll go with the offensively scary, defensively porous Steelers. Last season, the Steelers made the playoffs behind a career year from Ben Roethlisberger and a schedule that saw them play only two playoff teams outside their division (Panthers, Colts). This year, they face the AFC and NFC West (at Seattle in Week 12), along with going to New England to open the season and playing the Colts a week after their visit to Seattle. Le'Veon Bell is suspended for the first two games, budding young WR Martavis Bryant is suspended for the first four games, and Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey is injured and won't be back until around Week 12. Their defense is still extremely suspect and is unlikely to improve significantly upon their 18th overall total defense ranking last season. Some people view this team as a Super Bowl contender, but in a division that got three teams to the playoffs last year, I think the Steelers could be struggling to fight for a Wild Card spot.
Most Likely To Surprise: Miami Dolphins
On paper, this team looks like an elite club. Ryan Tannehill continues to improve at QB each season, and the Dolphins' front office has done an excellent job surrounding him with weapons for this upcoming season. Lamar Miller and Jarvis Landry were already there, but they added TE Jordan Cameron and WR Kenny Stills, along with drafting WR DeVante Parker and RB Jay Ajayi. Reports are that star left tackle Branden Albert will be ready for Week 1, giving Tannehill one less thing to worry about. Defensively, this team made the biggest offseason splash by landing defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. He will plop down right in the middle of edge rushers Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon. Those three should terrorize QBs from the get go, allowing Pro Bowl cornerback Brent Grimes to capitalize on badly thrown footballs. The hype train for the Dolphins has been rolling for a couple years now and I think they finally have the pieces in place to break through.
Team With The Most To Prove: Indianapolis Colts
Although Andrew Luck seemed to be inducted into the Hall of Fame from the day he was drafted, he has yet to translate that into postseason success. The Colts are in arguably the weakest division in football, giving them fairly easy access to the playoffs year after year. Despite this, they have been absolutely destroyed by the Patriots the last two seasons in the playoffs, and were crushed by the Ravens in 2012 as well. I know he's only in his fourth year, but it's time for Luck to start putting up his regular season numbers in the playoffs. Thankfully for Luck, he now has new veteran teammates in Frank Gore and Andre Johnson, as well as 2015 first round WR Phillip Dorsett. This should be one of, if not the, best offenses in the league. The defense, however, is a problem. Vontae Davis is a legit shutdown corner, but their run defense is abysmal and doesn't project to be much better in 2015. The Colts can throw it all they want, but when they run into teams like the Ravens and Patriots who are more than willing to just pound the ball inside, then they crumble as a team. Again, maybe I'm being too hard on Luck considering he's still pretty young, but with a free pass to the playoffs on a yearly basis, it's time to start performing much better against the big boys in the AFC.
Division by Division Final Standings
East
1. Dolphins
2. Patriots
3. Bills
4. Jets
North
1. Ravens
2. Bengals
3. Steelers
4. Browns
South
1. Colts
2. Texans
3. Jaguars
4. Titans
West
1. Broncos
2. Chiefs
3. Chargers
4. Raiders
Playoff Seeding
1. Colts
2. Ravens
3. Broncos
4. Dolphins
WC1. Chiefs
WC2. Patriots
Matty O
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
2015 NFC Outlook
Defending Champs: Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks look locked and loaded to once again make a run at another Super Bowl appearance. Despite losing cornerback Byron Maxwell and Pro Bowl center Max Unger, they still have the core of their team intact, acquired TE Jimmy Graham in the Unger trade, and drafted dynamic returner/wide receiver Tyler Lockett. A dangerous special teams returner has always been one thing missing from recent Seahawks squads, and Lockett has already proved this preseason that he will make an impact in the return game this year. Kam Chancellor's holdout is a legitimate concern, but I would be shocked if the two sides don't come to an agreement by Week 4 or 5. The Seahawks are also in a rather shaky division with Carson Palmer's health and durability a huge question mark in Arizona, a mass exodus of players in San Francisco, and an underwhelming offense in St. Louis. Non-divisional games in Green Bay, Dallas, and Baltimore are no walks in the park, but I expect the Seahawks to make the playoffs rather comfortably and make a run at the number one overall seed.
Most Likely To Fall Off: Dallas Cowboys
I love my Cowboys, but this season comes with more than a few question marks. After riding DeMarco Murray into the ground last season and letting him walk to the Eagles in the offseason, the Cowboys felt comfortable with the trio of Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden, and Lance Dunbar as their running backs and chose not to draft one. While a committee might work, there is still uncertainty if any of them can carry this run game even behind such a dominant offensive line. The run game was also what helped Tony Romo cut down on his turnovers last season, as he did not have to air it out as often. Will the lack of a bell cow back cause Romo to revert to his interception-throwing ways? Lastly, despite having Sean Lee healthy and signing Greg Hardy, this is still not a good defense. They will give up a fair amount of yards on the ground and a hilarious amount of yards through the air, particularly with CB Orlando Scandrick out for the year. With NFC East rivals Philly and New York both improving, the Cowboys could be in danger of not making the playoffs this year.
Most Likely To Surprise: Minnesota Vikings
The Eagles and Saints are close runners up, but I'm going to go with the Vikings with a second year QB in a division with the Packers. While I don't think they dethrone Aaron Rodgers and Co. this season, I do think they give them a scare throughout most of the regular season. Adrian Peterson's return would be enough for any offense in the league to be excited, but they also picked up Mike Wallce and are getting TE Kyle Rudolph back from injury. With Teddy Bridgewater playing decently his rookie year, this offense is a lock to improve upon their 27th ranked attack this year. Defensively, they have quietly built one of the more sound, young defenses in the league. They were 14th in total defense last season and bolstered their secondary by drafting CB Trae Waynes 11th overall in the 2015 draft. It's hard to see them winning the North with the Pack in their division, but a Wild Card spot is within reach. Don't be surprised if this squad dethrones Rodgers and the Pack in one or two years in this division.
Team With The Most To Prove: Philadelphia Eagles
You could make a case for the Packers because of how they lost the Seattle game last year or the Cowboys because of how they lost the Green Bay game last year, but I'm going to go with the team that put all its chips in Chip. The Eagles gave head coach Chip Kelly almost no restrictions this offseason in redesigning the team to his liking. Jordan Matthews and Darren Sproles are the only notable skill position offensive players returning, as Kelly is determined to make his Oregon based offense work in the NFL. He's either going to be hailed as an offensive genius and innovator or ridiculed for getting rid of the likes of Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy. I could see this team finishing 4-12 or 12-4. Neither would surprise me.
Division To Watch: NFC East (Dallas, Washington, New York Giants, Philadelphia)
Obviously I'm biased as a Cowboy fan, but this should be the most entertaining division this season. Chip Kelly has completely overhauled the entire Eagles' roster, and heads into the season with injury prone Sam Bradford at QB. This team is sure to put up points, but can the explosiveness last all season? The Cowboys are always in the media simply because they are the Cowboys, but their offense should be something to marvel at as well. They will be on a mission to avenge the Dez Bryant no catch game against the Packers in last year's playoffs. The Giants have improved immensely on offense with Victor Cruz coming back and Shane Vereen now in Giants blue. The defense is more than suspect, however, so they will have to out score everyone they face. Lastly, although they will likely finish in last place, the Redskins will get plenty of headlines so long as RG3 is there. Things will get really interesting if Kirk Cousins and/or Colt McCoy get hurt and RG3 has to play once again. With a NFC East team appearing six times on Monday Night Football, seven times on Sunday Night Football, and the Eagles and Cowboys both playing on Thanksgiving, the nation should get plenty of opportunities to see these teams in action.
Division by Division Final Standings
East
1. Eagles
2. Cowboys
3. Giants
4. Redskins
North
1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Lions
4. Bears
South
1. Saints
2. Falcons
3. Panthers
4. Bucs
West
1. Seahawks
2. Cardinals
3. 49ers
4. Rams
Playoff Seeding
1. Packers
2. Seahawks
3. Eagles
4. Saints
WC1. Cowboys
WC2. Vikings
Matty O
The Seahawks look locked and loaded to once again make a run at another Super Bowl appearance. Despite losing cornerback Byron Maxwell and Pro Bowl center Max Unger, they still have the core of their team intact, acquired TE Jimmy Graham in the Unger trade, and drafted dynamic returner/wide receiver Tyler Lockett. A dangerous special teams returner has always been one thing missing from recent Seahawks squads, and Lockett has already proved this preseason that he will make an impact in the return game this year. Kam Chancellor's holdout is a legitimate concern, but I would be shocked if the two sides don't come to an agreement by Week 4 or 5. The Seahawks are also in a rather shaky division with Carson Palmer's health and durability a huge question mark in Arizona, a mass exodus of players in San Francisco, and an underwhelming offense in St. Louis. Non-divisional games in Green Bay, Dallas, and Baltimore are no walks in the park, but I expect the Seahawks to make the playoffs rather comfortably and make a run at the number one overall seed.
Most Likely To Fall Off: Dallas Cowboys
I love my Cowboys, but this season comes with more than a few question marks. After riding DeMarco Murray into the ground last season and letting him walk to the Eagles in the offseason, the Cowboys felt comfortable with the trio of Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden, and Lance Dunbar as their running backs and chose not to draft one. While a committee might work, there is still uncertainty if any of them can carry this run game even behind such a dominant offensive line. The run game was also what helped Tony Romo cut down on his turnovers last season, as he did not have to air it out as often. Will the lack of a bell cow back cause Romo to revert to his interception-throwing ways? Lastly, despite having Sean Lee healthy and signing Greg Hardy, this is still not a good defense. They will give up a fair amount of yards on the ground and a hilarious amount of yards through the air, particularly with CB Orlando Scandrick out for the year. With NFC East rivals Philly and New York both improving, the Cowboys could be in danger of not making the playoffs this year.
Most Likely To Surprise: Minnesota Vikings
The Eagles and Saints are close runners up, but I'm going to go with the Vikings with a second year QB in a division with the Packers. While I don't think they dethrone Aaron Rodgers and Co. this season, I do think they give them a scare throughout most of the regular season. Adrian Peterson's return would be enough for any offense in the league to be excited, but they also picked up Mike Wallce and are getting TE Kyle Rudolph back from injury. With Teddy Bridgewater playing decently his rookie year, this offense is a lock to improve upon their 27th ranked attack this year. Defensively, they have quietly built one of the more sound, young defenses in the league. They were 14th in total defense last season and bolstered their secondary by drafting CB Trae Waynes 11th overall in the 2015 draft. It's hard to see them winning the North with the Pack in their division, but a Wild Card spot is within reach. Don't be surprised if this squad dethrones Rodgers and the Pack in one or two years in this division.
Team With The Most To Prove: Philadelphia Eagles
You could make a case for the Packers because of how they lost the Seattle game last year or the Cowboys because of how they lost the Green Bay game last year, but I'm going to go with the team that put all its chips in Chip. The Eagles gave head coach Chip Kelly almost no restrictions this offseason in redesigning the team to his liking. Jordan Matthews and Darren Sproles are the only notable skill position offensive players returning, as Kelly is determined to make his Oregon based offense work in the NFL. He's either going to be hailed as an offensive genius and innovator or ridiculed for getting rid of the likes of Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy. I could see this team finishing 4-12 or 12-4. Neither would surprise me.
Division To Watch: NFC East (Dallas, Washington, New York Giants, Philadelphia)
Obviously I'm biased as a Cowboy fan, but this should be the most entertaining division this season. Chip Kelly has completely overhauled the entire Eagles' roster, and heads into the season with injury prone Sam Bradford at QB. This team is sure to put up points, but can the explosiveness last all season? The Cowboys are always in the media simply because they are the Cowboys, but their offense should be something to marvel at as well. They will be on a mission to avenge the Dez Bryant no catch game against the Packers in last year's playoffs. The Giants have improved immensely on offense with Victor Cruz coming back and Shane Vereen now in Giants blue. The defense is more than suspect, however, so they will have to out score everyone they face. Lastly, although they will likely finish in last place, the Redskins will get plenty of headlines so long as RG3 is there. Things will get really interesting if Kirk Cousins and/or Colt McCoy get hurt and RG3 has to play once again. With a NFC East team appearing six times on Monday Night Football, seven times on Sunday Night Football, and the Eagles and Cowboys both playing on Thanksgiving, the nation should get plenty of opportunities to see these teams in action.
Division by Division Final Standings
East
1. Eagles
2. Cowboys
3. Giants
4. Redskins
North
1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Lions
4. Bears
South
1. Saints
2. Falcons
3. Panthers
4. Bucs
West
1. Seahawks
2. Cardinals
3. 49ers
4. Rams
Playoff Seeding
1. Packers
2. Seahawks
3. Eagles
4. Saints
WC1. Cowboys
WC2. Vikings
Matty O
Monday, August 24, 2015
2015 Fantasy Breakdown: NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Studs: Tony Romo, QB, Dez Bryant, WR
Despite finishing 23rd in pass attempts and missing a game due to injury, Romo still managed to finish 11th in fantasy points among QBs, making him a starter in 12 team leagues. He was able to achieve this by cutting down on the turnovers and consistently producing TDs. In fact, he had more TDs and the same amount of interceptions as Ben Roethlisberger, despite Big Ben throwing for six TDs in back to back games. The Cowboys will probably still want to establish the run behind their massive offensive line, but with DeMarco Murray gone, I think they will air it out a bit more in 2015. If Romo can stay healthy and get up to around 500 pass attempts (435 in 2014), he should be a top eight fantasy QB.
There was some concern this offseason that Dez would holdout into the regular season due to disagreements in contract negotiations. Thankfully, for the Cowboys and fantasy owners, the receiving TD leader in 2014 got a new contract and is good to go for 2015. Dez is one of the safer WRs to pick up as he has no real threat for targets behind him, has the trust of his QB, and is one of the best red zone threats in the league along with Rob Gronkowski and Demaryius Thomas. While Romo ranked 23rd in pass attempts, Dez ranked 12th in targets, though I expect him to rise in those ranks this season. Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, and Keenan Lewis are all on the schedule this season, but I still expect Dez to have a top five WR year.
Bust: Joseph Randle, RB
This pick is likely to blow up in my face, but I simply think that Randle's draft stock has risen too high. While it's true that he will be running behind one of the best lines in the league, it is likely he won't be the only one doing so. Word out of camp is that Darren McFadden will get a handful of reps and Lance Dunbar will see his share of passing down work. While McFadden is made of glass and gets injured every time he sneezes, Randle is not without his problems as well. Randle has been battling an oblique injury recently and has been in trouble off the field for drug charges and shoplifting. While neither were particularly serious charges, it's never a good sign to have that kind of stuff in your recent history, particularly with the league cracking down on off the field incidents. Randle could finish as a top 10 back if McFadden's health fails him once again, but his price is simply too high for me right now. Draft him as a high risk, high reward RB.
Sleeper: None
I'm tempted to put this D/ST unit here because Sean Lee is healthy (for now) and Greg Hardy will play at some point this season for this team, but the back end is so underwhelming that I can't bring myself to call them a Sleeper. They could have success late in the year however, as they face the Bucs, Panthers, Redskins, Jets, and Bills in the second half of the season, all of whom have questionable offenses at this point.
Bottom Line
The Cowboys should once again be in contention for a playoff spot, and possibly a deep run in the playoffs if one of their RBs emerges as a bell cow type RB. The defense is an obvious question mark, though they certainly look better on paper than the unit last year. Terrance Williams or Cole Beasley (PPR) might find some value in the passing game, but I think Dez hogs most of the targets for Dallas, leaving Williams and Beasley as bye week fill ins at best.
New York Giants
Studs: Odell Beckham, Jr., WR
ODB probably won a lot of people's leagues last year. People were wary of drafting or even claiming him off of waivers after it was known that he would miss the first quarter of the season with an injury. With no training camp and Victor Cruz to contend with, many thought that Beckham could contribute some, but certainly not reach the levels that he did. Well, Cruz went down with his own season ending injury, and Beckham became one of the best fantasy options at WR. In only 12 games last season, ODB had 91 receptions, 1305 yards, and 12 TDs. While Cruz is coming back this season, ODB has clearly established that he is the number one WR for the Giants, and certainly the best red zone threat on this team. The Giants' defense is arguably worse than it was last year, so expect them to fling the ball all over the place as they play catch up. Health permitting, ODB is a candidate for top overall WR this season.
Bust: Rashad Jennings, RB
Jennings started out the year strong, highlighted by a 176 yard, one TD performance in Week 3, but then cooled off on the stat sheet and was bitten by the injury bug. He wound up only playing in 11 games, perhaps showing that he is not built to handle a full workload. Before coming to the Giants, he had been a backup and only had to handle a lot of carries if the starter went down. In fact, he got more carries in 11 games last season than he did in 2013 in Oakland when he played in 15 games. I think the Giants are very aware of this fact and will likely give Andre Williams more between the tackles work. They also picked up Shane Vereen in the offseason, who will undoubtedly take most, if not all, of the passing down snaps. The decrease in workload coupled with a lot of games where the Giants will be trailing, puts Jennings in the FLEX or even bench role if his touches are severely limited.
Sleeper: Eli Manning, QB
Sometimes it's not how good you are, it's how good the players around you are. That is the case with Eli as he now has some of the best passing weapons in the game, though his tendency to throw head scratching interceptions will probably remain. ODB was a big reason why Eli was able to finish 10th among fantasy QBs last season, and now he gets Cruz back, along with the newly acquired Shane Vereen. While ODB might get a lot of the hype, I think Vereen is the most important guy in making Manning successful. He provides the short, dump off option that the Giants lacked last season, which resulted in Manning throwing the ball into coverage. Vereen's presence should allow for safer throws and less turnovers for Manning in 2015. There will still be occasional horrific games from Eli (Week 11 vs San Fran in 2014 he threw five interceptions), but his highs and lows should be better in 2015. Look for Eli to have a top eight QB season.
Bottom Line
Like the other teams in the NFC East, the offense is looking up, but the defense is a definite concern. The Gaints should air it out this season with ODB and Vereen being the most reliable options. If Cruz can stay healthy, he should be productive, particularly in PPR leagues where he plays out of the slot. Larry Donnell was a popular pick up early in 2014 at TE, but failed to score TDs with ODB playing. When Donnell doesn't find the end zone, he offers little to no fantasy value.
Philadelphia Eagles
Studs: DeMarco Murray, RB, Jordan Matthews, WR
After being the most productive RB in 2014, the Cowboys decided to let Murray go, and he just happened to wind up with the rival Philadelphia Eagles. The situation is so different for Murray that it is hard to project just how well he will do. The offensive line is a downgrade and he is sure to see a drop in his 393 rushes last season, but the Eagles operate their offense at a lightning fast pace, which should still allow Murray enough touches to make plays. He is one of the riskier top RBs to take because no one knows exactly how many touches he will get or what role he will play, but he has the upside to be a top five back.
I was high on Matthews coming out of Vanderbilt last season and, although it took him a while to get playing time, he made it count once he became a permanent starter. After the Eagles' Week 7 bye, Matthews hauled in six TDs and had three 100+ yard games. He was a reliable option out of the slot and should get even more looks now that Jeremy Maclin is in Kansas City. The tempo and movement of Chip Kelly's offense should get him into plenty of open space this season, making Matthews one of the better WR2 options, with upside to climb into the WR1 tier.
Bust: Eagles' RBs
I think this situation is going to turn into a DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart type situation where you have two talented backs that make for a dangerous combo for their real life team, but a frustrating combo for fantasy owners. While Murray is the number one back in Philly, Ryan Mathews is not far behind and should get his fair share of touches. Kelly likes to rotate backs to keep them fresh all game, which can lead to inconsistent numbers for his RBs at times. Darren Sproles is also still around to take receptions and a handful of carries away from Mathews and Murray. It is also important to note that, prior to 2014, Murray had not played a full 16 game season, and Mathews has only played a full 16 games once in his five year career. The pace of the offense and the demanding practices that Kelly runs could wear one, if not both of them down by the end of the year. Any player has upside with the tempo of this offense, but Murray and Mathews in particular, come with a high amount of risk.
Sleeper: Nelson Agholor, WR
The rookie out of USC could have a similar season to Matthews' 2014, as he is eased into the offense before putting up starting fantasy numbers late in the year. Agholor is a shifty slot WR who makes his money getting yards after the catch. He will probably be the go to guy on bubble screens or reveres, just to try and get him in the open field. While this offense is run oriented, it was able to support both Maclin and Matthews down the stretch last season, so Agholor has a chance to put up at least WR3/FLEX numbers. You can snag him late or off waivers.
Bottom Line
Everything with the Eagles hinges on if QB Sam Bradford can stay healthy, and if you truly believe in Chip Kelly's system. If Bradford goes down, I don't see the likes of Mark Sanchez or Matt Barkley leading this team to the playoffs. The value of a lot of the guys mentioned above would likely drop and Agholor could become a complete non-factor. This defense won't duplicate their 11 D/ST TDs from last season, but they should be a solid option in average to good matchups. The Eagles are the biggest threat to the Cowboys in the NFC East.
Washington Redskins
Studs: Alfred Morris, RB, DeSean Jackson, WR
Morris may not have the upside of a lot of the top NFL RBs, but he has one of the safest floors. Even with the entire offense in tatters last season, Morris still managed to go over 1,000 yards and score eight times. His value should be lowered in PPR leagues as he has never had more than 17 receptions in a season. Due to the uncertainty at QB and the fact that the Redskins play from behind a lot, Morris likely won't crack the top eight RBs, but he is someone you don't have to worry about and can feel good trotting him out as a RB2 any week of the season.
Jackson is the ultimate boom or bust, but if you don't mind players like that, then Jackson can provide some huge weeks for you. He racked up 1,169 receiving yards last season on only 56 receptions, an average of 20.9 yards per catch. That's the kind of player Jackson has been his whole career and that is what you'll get when you draft him. If he doesn't get that long bomb, he'll likely sink your fantasy team, but when he can connect on one or two of them, he can post WR1 numbers at a WR2 price. His volatility makes starting him and facing him a game long nightmare.
Bust: Robert Griffin III, QB
It's not really that he will be a bust as his draft stock has dropped significantly, but this will be RG3's last hurrah in Washington, and he should at least start in Week 1. He might post a couple good games to begin the year, but injuries and poor decision making will be his downfall for the Redskins and fantasy owners alike. When RG3 is starting and healthy, it raises the value of everyone around him, but once the threat of RG3 running is taken away, he becomes a mediocre QB at best. While I'm actually rooting for him to succeed, I think he flounders once again and ends his time in DC on a low note. It will be interesting to see if anyone can revitalize this talented, young QB's career.
Sleeper: Jordan Reed, TE
If not now, then when? The past two seasons Reed has shown incredible skill on the field as well as a knack for getting injured on it. He's only played 20 games the past two seasons, frustrating fantasy owners as he has posted good games when healthy. It looked as though Niles Paul was going to enter the season as the starting TE for the Redskins, but he has already suffered a season ending injury. Reed himself is already battling a hamstring injury this offseason, though it doesn't look to be serious. If he can somehow stay healthy, Reed would be in the TE1 conversation regardless of who Washington throws out at QB. He's currently going undrafted so it won't cost much to take a chance on him.
Bottom Line
An unstable QB situation, bottom of the league defense, and injuries before the season starts leads me to believe that the Redskins are heading for another last place finish. Morris is the only safe option in Washington, though Pierre Garcon could come back to fantasy relevance if RG3 somehow stays healthy, as those two had a solid connection in RG3's rookie season. This is not a good time to be a Redskins fan.
Matty O
Studs: Tony Romo, QB, Dez Bryant, WR
Despite finishing 23rd in pass attempts and missing a game due to injury, Romo still managed to finish 11th in fantasy points among QBs, making him a starter in 12 team leagues. He was able to achieve this by cutting down on the turnovers and consistently producing TDs. In fact, he had more TDs and the same amount of interceptions as Ben Roethlisberger, despite Big Ben throwing for six TDs in back to back games. The Cowboys will probably still want to establish the run behind their massive offensive line, but with DeMarco Murray gone, I think they will air it out a bit more in 2015. If Romo can stay healthy and get up to around 500 pass attempts (435 in 2014), he should be a top eight fantasy QB.
There was some concern this offseason that Dez would holdout into the regular season due to disagreements in contract negotiations. Thankfully, for the Cowboys and fantasy owners, the receiving TD leader in 2014 got a new contract and is good to go for 2015. Dez is one of the safer WRs to pick up as he has no real threat for targets behind him, has the trust of his QB, and is one of the best red zone threats in the league along with Rob Gronkowski and Demaryius Thomas. While Romo ranked 23rd in pass attempts, Dez ranked 12th in targets, though I expect him to rise in those ranks this season. Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, and Keenan Lewis are all on the schedule this season, but I still expect Dez to have a top five WR year.
Bust: Joseph Randle, RB
This pick is likely to blow up in my face, but I simply think that Randle's draft stock has risen too high. While it's true that he will be running behind one of the best lines in the league, it is likely he won't be the only one doing so. Word out of camp is that Darren McFadden will get a handful of reps and Lance Dunbar will see his share of passing down work. While McFadden is made of glass and gets injured every time he sneezes, Randle is not without his problems as well. Randle has been battling an oblique injury recently and has been in trouble off the field for drug charges and shoplifting. While neither were particularly serious charges, it's never a good sign to have that kind of stuff in your recent history, particularly with the league cracking down on off the field incidents. Randle could finish as a top 10 back if McFadden's health fails him once again, but his price is simply too high for me right now. Draft him as a high risk, high reward RB.
Sleeper: None
I'm tempted to put this D/ST unit here because Sean Lee is healthy (for now) and Greg Hardy will play at some point this season for this team, but the back end is so underwhelming that I can't bring myself to call them a Sleeper. They could have success late in the year however, as they face the Bucs, Panthers, Redskins, Jets, and Bills in the second half of the season, all of whom have questionable offenses at this point.
Bottom Line
The Cowboys should once again be in contention for a playoff spot, and possibly a deep run in the playoffs if one of their RBs emerges as a bell cow type RB. The defense is an obvious question mark, though they certainly look better on paper than the unit last year. Terrance Williams or Cole Beasley (PPR) might find some value in the passing game, but I think Dez hogs most of the targets for Dallas, leaving Williams and Beasley as bye week fill ins at best.
New York Giants
Studs: Odell Beckham, Jr., WR
ODB probably won a lot of people's leagues last year. People were wary of drafting or even claiming him off of waivers after it was known that he would miss the first quarter of the season with an injury. With no training camp and Victor Cruz to contend with, many thought that Beckham could contribute some, but certainly not reach the levels that he did. Well, Cruz went down with his own season ending injury, and Beckham became one of the best fantasy options at WR. In only 12 games last season, ODB had 91 receptions, 1305 yards, and 12 TDs. While Cruz is coming back this season, ODB has clearly established that he is the number one WR for the Giants, and certainly the best red zone threat on this team. The Giants' defense is arguably worse than it was last year, so expect them to fling the ball all over the place as they play catch up. Health permitting, ODB is a candidate for top overall WR this season.
Bust: Rashad Jennings, RB
Jennings started out the year strong, highlighted by a 176 yard, one TD performance in Week 3, but then cooled off on the stat sheet and was bitten by the injury bug. He wound up only playing in 11 games, perhaps showing that he is not built to handle a full workload. Before coming to the Giants, he had been a backup and only had to handle a lot of carries if the starter went down. In fact, he got more carries in 11 games last season than he did in 2013 in Oakland when he played in 15 games. I think the Giants are very aware of this fact and will likely give Andre Williams more between the tackles work. They also picked up Shane Vereen in the offseason, who will undoubtedly take most, if not all, of the passing down snaps. The decrease in workload coupled with a lot of games where the Giants will be trailing, puts Jennings in the FLEX or even bench role if his touches are severely limited.
Sleeper: Eli Manning, QB
Sometimes it's not how good you are, it's how good the players around you are. That is the case with Eli as he now has some of the best passing weapons in the game, though his tendency to throw head scratching interceptions will probably remain. ODB was a big reason why Eli was able to finish 10th among fantasy QBs last season, and now he gets Cruz back, along with the newly acquired Shane Vereen. While ODB might get a lot of the hype, I think Vereen is the most important guy in making Manning successful. He provides the short, dump off option that the Giants lacked last season, which resulted in Manning throwing the ball into coverage. Vereen's presence should allow for safer throws and less turnovers for Manning in 2015. There will still be occasional horrific games from Eli (Week 11 vs San Fran in 2014 he threw five interceptions), but his highs and lows should be better in 2015. Look for Eli to have a top eight QB season.
Bottom Line
Like the other teams in the NFC East, the offense is looking up, but the defense is a definite concern. The Gaints should air it out this season with ODB and Vereen being the most reliable options. If Cruz can stay healthy, he should be productive, particularly in PPR leagues where he plays out of the slot. Larry Donnell was a popular pick up early in 2014 at TE, but failed to score TDs with ODB playing. When Donnell doesn't find the end zone, he offers little to no fantasy value.
Philadelphia Eagles
Studs: DeMarco Murray, RB, Jordan Matthews, WR
After being the most productive RB in 2014, the Cowboys decided to let Murray go, and he just happened to wind up with the rival Philadelphia Eagles. The situation is so different for Murray that it is hard to project just how well he will do. The offensive line is a downgrade and he is sure to see a drop in his 393 rushes last season, but the Eagles operate their offense at a lightning fast pace, which should still allow Murray enough touches to make plays. He is one of the riskier top RBs to take because no one knows exactly how many touches he will get or what role he will play, but he has the upside to be a top five back.
I was high on Matthews coming out of Vanderbilt last season and, although it took him a while to get playing time, he made it count once he became a permanent starter. After the Eagles' Week 7 bye, Matthews hauled in six TDs and had three 100+ yard games. He was a reliable option out of the slot and should get even more looks now that Jeremy Maclin is in Kansas City. The tempo and movement of Chip Kelly's offense should get him into plenty of open space this season, making Matthews one of the better WR2 options, with upside to climb into the WR1 tier.
Bust: Eagles' RBs
I think this situation is going to turn into a DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart type situation where you have two talented backs that make for a dangerous combo for their real life team, but a frustrating combo for fantasy owners. While Murray is the number one back in Philly, Ryan Mathews is not far behind and should get his fair share of touches. Kelly likes to rotate backs to keep them fresh all game, which can lead to inconsistent numbers for his RBs at times. Darren Sproles is also still around to take receptions and a handful of carries away from Mathews and Murray. It is also important to note that, prior to 2014, Murray had not played a full 16 game season, and Mathews has only played a full 16 games once in his five year career. The pace of the offense and the demanding practices that Kelly runs could wear one, if not both of them down by the end of the year. Any player has upside with the tempo of this offense, but Murray and Mathews in particular, come with a high amount of risk.
Sleeper: Nelson Agholor, WR
The rookie out of USC could have a similar season to Matthews' 2014, as he is eased into the offense before putting up starting fantasy numbers late in the year. Agholor is a shifty slot WR who makes his money getting yards after the catch. He will probably be the go to guy on bubble screens or reveres, just to try and get him in the open field. While this offense is run oriented, it was able to support both Maclin and Matthews down the stretch last season, so Agholor has a chance to put up at least WR3/FLEX numbers. You can snag him late or off waivers.
Bottom Line
Everything with the Eagles hinges on if QB Sam Bradford can stay healthy, and if you truly believe in Chip Kelly's system. If Bradford goes down, I don't see the likes of Mark Sanchez or Matt Barkley leading this team to the playoffs. The value of a lot of the guys mentioned above would likely drop and Agholor could become a complete non-factor. This defense won't duplicate their 11 D/ST TDs from last season, but they should be a solid option in average to good matchups. The Eagles are the biggest threat to the Cowboys in the NFC East.
Washington Redskins
Studs: Alfred Morris, RB, DeSean Jackson, WR
Morris may not have the upside of a lot of the top NFL RBs, but he has one of the safest floors. Even with the entire offense in tatters last season, Morris still managed to go over 1,000 yards and score eight times. His value should be lowered in PPR leagues as he has never had more than 17 receptions in a season. Due to the uncertainty at QB and the fact that the Redskins play from behind a lot, Morris likely won't crack the top eight RBs, but he is someone you don't have to worry about and can feel good trotting him out as a RB2 any week of the season.
Jackson is the ultimate boom or bust, but if you don't mind players like that, then Jackson can provide some huge weeks for you. He racked up 1,169 receiving yards last season on only 56 receptions, an average of 20.9 yards per catch. That's the kind of player Jackson has been his whole career and that is what you'll get when you draft him. If he doesn't get that long bomb, he'll likely sink your fantasy team, but when he can connect on one or two of them, he can post WR1 numbers at a WR2 price. His volatility makes starting him and facing him a game long nightmare.
Bust: Robert Griffin III, QB
It's not really that he will be a bust as his draft stock has dropped significantly, but this will be RG3's last hurrah in Washington, and he should at least start in Week 1. He might post a couple good games to begin the year, but injuries and poor decision making will be his downfall for the Redskins and fantasy owners alike. When RG3 is starting and healthy, it raises the value of everyone around him, but once the threat of RG3 running is taken away, he becomes a mediocre QB at best. While I'm actually rooting for him to succeed, I think he flounders once again and ends his time in DC on a low note. It will be interesting to see if anyone can revitalize this talented, young QB's career.
Sleeper: Jordan Reed, TE
If not now, then when? The past two seasons Reed has shown incredible skill on the field as well as a knack for getting injured on it. He's only played 20 games the past two seasons, frustrating fantasy owners as he has posted good games when healthy. It looked as though Niles Paul was going to enter the season as the starting TE for the Redskins, but he has already suffered a season ending injury. Reed himself is already battling a hamstring injury this offseason, though it doesn't look to be serious. If he can somehow stay healthy, Reed would be in the TE1 conversation regardless of who Washington throws out at QB. He's currently going undrafted so it won't cost much to take a chance on him.
Bottom Line
An unstable QB situation, bottom of the league defense, and injuries before the season starts leads me to believe that the Redskins are heading for another last place finish. Morris is the only safe option in Washington, though Pierre Garcon could come back to fantasy relevance if RG3 somehow stays healthy, as those two had a solid connection in RG3's rookie season. This is not a good time to be a Redskins fan.
Matty O
Saturday, August 22, 2015
2015 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Studs: LeSean McCoy, RB, Sammy Watkins, WR, Defense/Special Teams
McCoy's move from Philly to Buffalo should give owners both hope and caution when considering drafting him. The reasons for hope is that McCoy is firmly the number one RB and should see more touches, whereas he was substituted out for Darren Sproles and even Chris Polk in Philly. Rex Ryan is committed to the run and, with a terrible collection of QBs, will likely rely on the run game to control the clock. If McCoy can stay healthy, he is a candidate to lead the NFL in carries. The reasons for caution is that the Buffalo offensive line is a downgrade from Philly's and the run defenses in the AFC East are much stouter than the ones in the NFC East. I think McCoy certainly improves upon his five rushing TDs from last season, though the yards might be tough to come by. His value will increase if Rex decides to utilize him in the passing game.
I debated putting Watkins in here because of his QB situation and how poorly he finished 2014, but his talent is still above league average and he should still have WR2 value. Watkins had no trouble adjusting to the NFL early on, tallying three 100+ yard games and five TDs in the first eight weeks of the season. After the Bills' Week 9 bye, however, things went downhill in a hurry. He had only one more 100+ yard game the rest of the season and only scored one more time. He had five games where he only caught three balls and one game where he came away with a single catch. Watkins is far from a safe pick, but his athletic ability coupled with the triple digit targets he will probably get, should make him a reasonable pick at his falling draft position.
This D/ST unit finished first among D/ST in fantasy last season, and I doubt that changes this year. They had eight double digit performances last season and two of those were 20+ (vs Miami, vs New York Jets). They even held Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense to a mere 13 points in Week 15. They were able to keep defensive end Jerry Hughes and, along with Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, and Marcell Dareus, form one of the best defensive lines in the league. They addressed their secondary concerns by drafting cornerback Ronald Darby in the second round of this year's draft, though the front four should create enough pressure that the secondary can get by with average talent. Add in Rex Ryan's notorious defensive scheme, and you have the makings of an elite fantasy and real life defense.
Bust: None
With Watkins' draft stock plummeting, I think the three Studs above are being drafted at a reasonable position.
Sleeper: Fred Jackson, RB
Jackson continues to be that old veteran that can provide a bye week fill in or handle a larger workload if the starting RB goes down. With McCoy coming over in the offseason, I think a lot of people have already forgotten the stats that Jackson can put up. Jackson is getting up there in age and injury concerns are a problem, but he still got 207 touches last season, 66 of which were receptions. He's clearly not even in McCoy's league in terms of being an every down back, but could provide some value in PPR formats as he is a better receiver than McCoy out of the backfield. Also keep in mind that McCoy will be expected to do more in between the tackles running in Buffalo, leading to more hits and possibly more nicks for McCoy. If he were to miss any time Jackson would be at least a low end RB2.
Bottom Line
There is a lot of excitement in Buffalo in 2015, mainly due to Rex Ryan and LeSean McCoy joining the fold. Their defense is one of the best in the league, though their QB situation is one of the worst. If their QB can simply not turn the ball over and rely on this defense and run game, then Buffalo has a chance to sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 1999.
Miami Dolphins
Studs: Lamar Miller, RB, Jarvis Landry (PPR), WR
Miller's value is hurt because he does not see the heavy workload that a DeMarco Murray or LeSean McCoy does, but he is productive with his touches to go along with eight scores last season. I was actually low on Miller after the draft because the Dolphins selected Jay Ajayi out of Boise State, but Ajayi has struggled in camp so far, allowing Miller to distance himself for the starting role in this offense. His 5.1 yards per carry will probably go down this season, but the TDs and a 1000+ yard season seem within reach. The only problem is that if Miller is not productive with his touches, he could sink your team as the Dolphins do not seem to be willing to force feed Miller carries.
Landry will have a low TD total, a low yardage total, but can be a valuable WR2/FLEX in PPR leagues. While the Dolphins did pick up Kenny Stills from the Saints and drafted DeVante Parker, Landry at least knows the Dolphins' system and clearly gained Ryan Tannehill's trust in 2014. Despite not even playing in Week 1 and being overshadowed by Mike Wallace to start the season, Landry still wound up with 84 receptions on 111 targets, and never had less than five catches from Week 9 until the end of the season. The new additions might drop Landry's targets a bit, but keep in mind that Stills is more of a deep, stretch the field threat and Parker has been battling injuries throughout the offseason.
Bust: Landry, WR
As I mentioned before, targets could be an issue for Landry this season, and he needs to see a lot of them to be productive. While Parker has been injured, he seems like the real deal and could surpass Landry as the WR to own in Miami in PPR and standard leagues. Because Landry is not a big WR, his TDs will be few and far between, lessening his value even more. Injuries to Stills and/or Parker could open up the door for Landry, but even if that opportunity occurs, he is still no more than a WR2/FLEX in PPR leagues.
Sleeper: Ryan Tannehill, QB
Tannehill seems poised for a big year in 2015. He has increased his passing yards and TDs every year he has been in the league, and posted a career low 12 interceptions in 2014. It is the second year in offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's offense, which emphasizes quick throws and an up tempo pace to the offense. While the Dolphins did lose WR Mike Wallace, they still have Landry, Parker, Stills, and new TE Jordan Cameron. If Jay Ajayi can get over his rookie struggles, that will provide RB depth that the Dolphins lacked last season. If LT Branden Albert can come back from his ACL and MCL tear last season, then this offense looks locked and loaded to put up points, even in a division with the Jets' and Bills' defenses. Tannehill should be the main beneficiary.
Bottom Line
The Dolphins looked impressive in Week 1 last season, beating the mighty Patriots by 13 at home to start the season. Even with the Pats' early struggles, however, New England still won the division and got revenge in a big way by blasting the Dolphins 41-13 in Foxborough. This Dolphin team is improved, but they still need to clear the hurdle of the dominant Patriots. Hopefully the addition of Ndamukong Suh to an already talented defense, can put them over the hump.
New England Patriots
Studs: Tom Brady, QB, Julian Edleman (PPR), WR, Rob Gronkowski, TE
Obviously things are still up in the air with Brady as Deflategate continues to drag on, but there's no doubting that Brady still has it from a fantasy perspective. While he currently is going to be suspended for the first four games of this season, he played fairly awful the first four games of the season last year anyways. He had three single digit games, and only managed 13 fantasy points against the Oakland Raiders. There were talks of benching Brady or even sending him to the waiver wire. Well, after the debacle in Kansas City in Week 4, Brady tore up the NFL, looking like vintage Brady and still finishing as the eighth best fantasy QB last season. The loss of Shane Vereen will hurt more than people think, but he still has Edleman, Brandon LaFell, and the Gronk to throw to. Regardless of when Brady plays, he should perform at a high QB1 level. It will be interesting to see how far he falls in drafts.
Edleman is a rich man's Jarvis Landry. Similar to Landry, Edleman is a poor bet to score a significant amount of TDs, but he is guaranteed to get triple digit targets and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 90+ receptions like he did in 2014. Brady will be throwing to him at some point this season but, because of how well Edleman creates separation at the line, I still think he can be decently productive if Jimmy Garoppolo is under center. Shane Vereen's absence might mean even more short targets his way, though I doubt he tops 1,000 yards. If you're just looking for consistent receptions, however, then Edleman is your guy and a player a wouldn't mind reaching for.
Gronk gets plenty of attention for his partying and goofy antics off the field, but on Sundays (also Mondays, Thursdays, and sometimes Saturdays) he shows up to play. Gronk is one of the most un-coverable players in the red zone as he has double digit TDs in every season except for 2013, when he only played seven games. Gronk even sees his fair share of targets between the 20s as he racked up 100 more receiving yards than any other TE. His 130 targets make WRs jealous, as Gronk should also perform at an adequate, but perhaps not elite, level when Garoppolo is under center. Gronk is the unquestioned fantasy TE1 and is worthy of his high draft cost.
Bust: Patriot RBs
For now, the presumed starter for between the tackles running is LeGarrette Blount. Blount, however, will miss the Patriots' Week 1 game and has to contend with Jonas Gray breathing down his neck. If it weren't for a missed team meeting following a 201 yard 4 TD performance against the Colts in Week 11 last year, I think Gray might have won the job down the stretch. Instead, Blount performed well to close the season out after coming over from Pittsburgh, though Gray looked good in the preseason opener this year against Green Bay. Gray will be the starter Week 1, and could have a chance to supplant Blount as the lead back. The problem is, I see a committee forming where one back does well, then the other one does. Belichick always makes game plans tailor made to the defense he is facing, so sometimes his RBs don't even get double digit carries. The Shane Vereen passing role is up for grabs, but James White and Brandon Bolden are two underwhelming candidates. This situation could work itself out during the season, but don't be surprised if you have a few headaches if you own any of these backs.
Sleeper: None
I don't see anyone on this squad greatly outperforming their draft position. Garoppolo could be considered a four game sleeper, as I think he does reasonably well while Brady is out.
Bottom Line
Could this be the year that the Pats are finally dethroned from the AFC East? Brady's ruling is in limbo, Shane Vereen is with the Giants, and Darrelle Revis went to the rival New York Jets. While all those losses are significant, we've seen Belichick work wonders with no name players before. I'm sure there are guys that no one has heard about that will make a difference for the Pats in some way this season. So, while a lot of signs are pointing to this team declining, I still wouldn't count them out for another AFC East crown.
New York Jets
Studs: Brandon Marshall, WR, Defense/Special Teams
Marshall struggled with injuries and off the field distractions during his last season in Chicago, finishing with less than 750 yards, though he did haul in eight TDs. Now with a fresh start in New York, I expect Marshall to bounce back and have a nice season in 2015. The QB situation in New York is shaky at best, but Marshall, like in Chicago, is sure to get footballs thrown his way early and often. He is probably the Jets' best red zone threat and should get his chances to score when the Jets do get down there, however rarely that may be. His numbers will be held back by poor QB play, but people seem to have completely forgotten about him because he left Chicago. Don't forget, and snag him as a WR2.
Rarely do I put an unproven player or unit in the Stud section, but this is a special case. The Jets D/ST finished 27th in fantasy points among D/ST units last season, largely because they couldn't produce turnovers and couldn't stop the pass. Things are looking much brighter after they picked up Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie through free agency, and then they drafted the best defensive player in this year's draft in Leonard Williams. Their front seven was already stout and the Revis and Cromartie additions should significantly shore up their secondary. Add in new head coach, former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles calling the shots, and I see this unit returning to top 10, possibly top 5 status.
Bust: Eric Decker, WR
I simply don't think this offense can support two WRs. I have no doubt that, health permitting, Marshall will lead this team in targets. The Jets also selected WR Devin Smith in the second round, though his early season status may be in jeopardy due to injury. The Jets will likely emphasize the run due to their poor QB situation and rely on their stout defense to give them good field position and more time of possession. I don't think Decker is a bad player by any means, but this offense will be limited in their aerial attack and Marshall is the only one that I think puts up enough numbers to be a fantasy starter.
Sleeper: Chris Ivory, RB
Ivory has great value this season as a lot of backs that also play two downs and are their teams' thumper (Alfred Morris, Mark Ingram) are going way ahead of him. Let others get those guys, and you wait to snag Ivory. Ivory struggled with injuries early in his career in New Orleans, but has played in every game except one since coming over to the Jets in 2013. He's faster than you think for his size and has always done well with his touches, never dipping under 4.1 yards per carry in any of his five NFL seasons. The Jets have terrible and/or injured backups behind Ivory, so perhaps he will finally get the full workload that the Jets have been hesitant to give him the last couple years. He is a lock to get all the goal line looks, and there has even been talk about getting him involved in the passing game. Ivory is one of my favorite sleepers in 2015.
Bottom Line
It's going to be ugly, it might be boring to watch, but I think the Jets are going to grind out a lot more victories than people think. With all the question marks the Patriots have, this division is really up for grabs and the Jets have a shot if they can cut down on the turnovers and create some with their defense. That formula might make it hard to win the division, but I could see them getting a Wild Card spot.
Matty O
Studs: LeSean McCoy, RB, Sammy Watkins, WR, Defense/Special Teams
McCoy's move from Philly to Buffalo should give owners both hope and caution when considering drafting him. The reasons for hope is that McCoy is firmly the number one RB and should see more touches, whereas he was substituted out for Darren Sproles and even Chris Polk in Philly. Rex Ryan is committed to the run and, with a terrible collection of QBs, will likely rely on the run game to control the clock. If McCoy can stay healthy, he is a candidate to lead the NFL in carries. The reasons for caution is that the Buffalo offensive line is a downgrade from Philly's and the run defenses in the AFC East are much stouter than the ones in the NFC East. I think McCoy certainly improves upon his five rushing TDs from last season, though the yards might be tough to come by. His value will increase if Rex decides to utilize him in the passing game.
I debated putting Watkins in here because of his QB situation and how poorly he finished 2014, but his talent is still above league average and he should still have WR2 value. Watkins had no trouble adjusting to the NFL early on, tallying three 100+ yard games and five TDs in the first eight weeks of the season. After the Bills' Week 9 bye, however, things went downhill in a hurry. He had only one more 100+ yard game the rest of the season and only scored one more time. He had five games where he only caught three balls and one game where he came away with a single catch. Watkins is far from a safe pick, but his athletic ability coupled with the triple digit targets he will probably get, should make him a reasonable pick at his falling draft position.
This D/ST unit finished first among D/ST in fantasy last season, and I doubt that changes this year. They had eight double digit performances last season and two of those were 20+ (vs Miami, vs New York Jets). They even held Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense to a mere 13 points in Week 15. They were able to keep defensive end Jerry Hughes and, along with Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, and Marcell Dareus, form one of the best defensive lines in the league. They addressed their secondary concerns by drafting cornerback Ronald Darby in the second round of this year's draft, though the front four should create enough pressure that the secondary can get by with average talent. Add in Rex Ryan's notorious defensive scheme, and you have the makings of an elite fantasy and real life defense.
Bust: None
With Watkins' draft stock plummeting, I think the three Studs above are being drafted at a reasonable position.
Sleeper: Fred Jackson, RB
Jackson continues to be that old veteran that can provide a bye week fill in or handle a larger workload if the starting RB goes down. With McCoy coming over in the offseason, I think a lot of people have already forgotten the stats that Jackson can put up. Jackson is getting up there in age and injury concerns are a problem, but he still got 207 touches last season, 66 of which were receptions. He's clearly not even in McCoy's league in terms of being an every down back, but could provide some value in PPR formats as he is a better receiver than McCoy out of the backfield. Also keep in mind that McCoy will be expected to do more in between the tackles running in Buffalo, leading to more hits and possibly more nicks for McCoy. If he were to miss any time Jackson would be at least a low end RB2.
Bottom Line
There is a lot of excitement in Buffalo in 2015, mainly due to Rex Ryan and LeSean McCoy joining the fold. Their defense is one of the best in the league, though their QB situation is one of the worst. If their QB can simply not turn the ball over and rely on this defense and run game, then Buffalo has a chance to sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 1999.
Miami Dolphins
Studs: Lamar Miller, RB, Jarvis Landry (PPR), WR
Miller's value is hurt because he does not see the heavy workload that a DeMarco Murray or LeSean McCoy does, but he is productive with his touches to go along with eight scores last season. I was actually low on Miller after the draft because the Dolphins selected Jay Ajayi out of Boise State, but Ajayi has struggled in camp so far, allowing Miller to distance himself for the starting role in this offense. His 5.1 yards per carry will probably go down this season, but the TDs and a 1000+ yard season seem within reach. The only problem is that if Miller is not productive with his touches, he could sink your team as the Dolphins do not seem to be willing to force feed Miller carries.
Landry will have a low TD total, a low yardage total, but can be a valuable WR2/FLEX in PPR leagues. While the Dolphins did pick up Kenny Stills from the Saints and drafted DeVante Parker, Landry at least knows the Dolphins' system and clearly gained Ryan Tannehill's trust in 2014. Despite not even playing in Week 1 and being overshadowed by Mike Wallace to start the season, Landry still wound up with 84 receptions on 111 targets, and never had less than five catches from Week 9 until the end of the season. The new additions might drop Landry's targets a bit, but keep in mind that Stills is more of a deep, stretch the field threat and Parker has been battling injuries throughout the offseason.
Bust: Landry, WR
As I mentioned before, targets could be an issue for Landry this season, and he needs to see a lot of them to be productive. While Parker has been injured, he seems like the real deal and could surpass Landry as the WR to own in Miami in PPR and standard leagues. Because Landry is not a big WR, his TDs will be few and far between, lessening his value even more. Injuries to Stills and/or Parker could open up the door for Landry, but even if that opportunity occurs, he is still no more than a WR2/FLEX in PPR leagues.
Sleeper: Ryan Tannehill, QB
Tannehill seems poised for a big year in 2015. He has increased his passing yards and TDs every year he has been in the league, and posted a career low 12 interceptions in 2014. It is the second year in offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's offense, which emphasizes quick throws and an up tempo pace to the offense. While the Dolphins did lose WR Mike Wallace, they still have Landry, Parker, Stills, and new TE Jordan Cameron. If Jay Ajayi can get over his rookie struggles, that will provide RB depth that the Dolphins lacked last season. If LT Branden Albert can come back from his ACL and MCL tear last season, then this offense looks locked and loaded to put up points, even in a division with the Jets' and Bills' defenses. Tannehill should be the main beneficiary.
Bottom Line
The Dolphins looked impressive in Week 1 last season, beating the mighty Patriots by 13 at home to start the season. Even with the Pats' early struggles, however, New England still won the division and got revenge in a big way by blasting the Dolphins 41-13 in Foxborough. This Dolphin team is improved, but they still need to clear the hurdle of the dominant Patriots. Hopefully the addition of Ndamukong Suh to an already talented defense, can put them over the hump.
New England Patriots
Studs: Tom Brady, QB, Julian Edleman (PPR), WR, Rob Gronkowski, TE
Obviously things are still up in the air with Brady as Deflategate continues to drag on, but there's no doubting that Brady still has it from a fantasy perspective. While he currently is going to be suspended for the first four games of this season, he played fairly awful the first four games of the season last year anyways. He had three single digit games, and only managed 13 fantasy points against the Oakland Raiders. There were talks of benching Brady or even sending him to the waiver wire. Well, after the debacle in Kansas City in Week 4, Brady tore up the NFL, looking like vintage Brady and still finishing as the eighth best fantasy QB last season. The loss of Shane Vereen will hurt more than people think, but he still has Edleman, Brandon LaFell, and the Gronk to throw to. Regardless of when Brady plays, he should perform at a high QB1 level. It will be interesting to see how far he falls in drafts.
Edleman is a rich man's Jarvis Landry. Similar to Landry, Edleman is a poor bet to score a significant amount of TDs, but he is guaranteed to get triple digit targets and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 90+ receptions like he did in 2014. Brady will be throwing to him at some point this season but, because of how well Edleman creates separation at the line, I still think he can be decently productive if Jimmy Garoppolo is under center. Shane Vereen's absence might mean even more short targets his way, though I doubt he tops 1,000 yards. If you're just looking for consistent receptions, however, then Edleman is your guy and a player a wouldn't mind reaching for.
Gronk gets plenty of attention for his partying and goofy antics off the field, but on Sundays (also Mondays, Thursdays, and sometimes Saturdays) he shows up to play. Gronk is one of the most un-coverable players in the red zone as he has double digit TDs in every season except for 2013, when he only played seven games. Gronk even sees his fair share of targets between the 20s as he racked up 100 more receiving yards than any other TE. His 130 targets make WRs jealous, as Gronk should also perform at an adequate, but perhaps not elite, level when Garoppolo is under center. Gronk is the unquestioned fantasy TE1 and is worthy of his high draft cost.
Bust: Patriot RBs
For now, the presumed starter for between the tackles running is LeGarrette Blount. Blount, however, will miss the Patriots' Week 1 game and has to contend with Jonas Gray breathing down his neck. If it weren't for a missed team meeting following a 201 yard 4 TD performance against the Colts in Week 11 last year, I think Gray might have won the job down the stretch. Instead, Blount performed well to close the season out after coming over from Pittsburgh, though Gray looked good in the preseason opener this year against Green Bay. Gray will be the starter Week 1, and could have a chance to supplant Blount as the lead back. The problem is, I see a committee forming where one back does well, then the other one does. Belichick always makes game plans tailor made to the defense he is facing, so sometimes his RBs don't even get double digit carries. The Shane Vereen passing role is up for grabs, but James White and Brandon Bolden are two underwhelming candidates. This situation could work itself out during the season, but don't be surprised if you have a few headaches if you own any of these backs.
Sleeper: None
I don't see anyone on this squad greatly outperforming their draft position. Garoppolo could be considered a four game sleeper, as I think he does reasonably well while Brady is out.
Bottom Line
Could this be the year that the Pats are finally dethroned from the AFC East? Brady's ruling is in limbo, Shane Vereen is with the Giants, and Darrelle Revis went to the rival New York Jets. While all those losses are significant, we've seen Belichick work wonders with no name players before. I'm sure there are guys that no one has heard about that will make a difference for the Pats in some way this season. So, while a lot of signs are pointing to this team declining, I still wouldn't count them out for another AFC East crown.
New York Jets
Studs: Brandon Marshall, WR, Defense/Special Teams
Marshall struggled with injuries and off the field distractions during his last season in Chicago, finishing with less than 750 yards, though he did haul in eight TDs. Now with a fresh start in New York, I expect Marshall to bounce back and have a nice season in 2015. The QB situation in New York is shaky at best, but Marshall, like in Chicago, is sure to get footballs thrown his way early and often. He is probably the Jets' best red zone threat and should get his chances to score when the Jets do get down there, however rarely that may be. His numbers will be held back by poor QB play, but people seem to have completely forgotten about him because he left Chicago. Don't forget, and snag him as a WR2.
Rarely do I put an unproven player or unit in the Stud section, but this is a special case. The Jets D/ST finished 27th in fantasy points among D/ST units last season, largely because they couldn't produce turnovers and couldn't stop the pass. Things are looking much brighter after they picked up Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie through free agency, and then they drafted the best defensive player in this year's draft in Leonard Williams. Their front seven was already stout and the Revis and Cromartie additions should significantly shore up their secondary. Add in new head coach, former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles calling the shots, and I see this unit returning to top 10, possibly top 5 status.
Bust: Eric Decker, WR
I simply don't think this offense can support two WRs. I have no doubt that, health permitting, Marshall will lead this team in targets. The Jets also selected WR Devin Smith in the second round, though his early season status may be in jeopardy due to injury. The Jets will likely emphasize the run due to their poor QB situation and rely on their stout defense to give them good field position and more time of possession. I don't think Decker is a bad player by any means, but this offense will be limited in their aerial attack and Marshall is the only one that I think puts up enough numbers to be a fantasy starter.
Sleeper: Chris Ivory, RB
Ivory has great value this season as a lot of backs that also play two downs and are their teams' thumper (Alfred Morris, Mark Ingram) are going way ahead of him. Let others get those guys, and you wait to snag Ivory. Ivory struggled with injuries early in his career in New Orleans, but has played in every game except one since coming over to the Jets in 2013. He's faster than you think for his size and has always done well with his touches, never dipping under 4.1 yards per carry in any of his five NFL seasons. The Jets have terrible and/or injured backups behind Ivory, so perhaps he will finally get the full workload that the Jets have been hesitant to give him the last couple years. He is a lock to get all the goal line looks, and there has even been talk about getting him involved in the passing game. Ivory is one of my favorite sleepers in 2015.
Bottom Line
It's going to be ugly, it might be boring to watch, but I think the Jets are going to grind out a lot more victories than people think. With all the question marks the Patriots have, this division is really up for grabs and the Jets have a shot if they can cut down on the turnovers and create some with their defense. That formula might make it hard to win the division, but I could see them getting a Wild Card spot.
Matty O
Thursday, August 20, 2015
2015 Fantasy Breakdown: NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Studs: Matt Ryan, QB, Julio Jones, WR
Ryan will never amaze in fantasy (never finished higher than the 7th best QB), but he is consistently in the top 10 and usually has a draft position that is reasonable. Ryan has one of the best wide receiver weapons in the game in Julio Jones, along with aging, but still capable, Roddy White. The Falcons also drafted Tevin Coleman to go along with Devonta Freeman to try and create a more balanced offense so that Ryan doesn't have to single handedly save the Falcons every game. New head coach Dan Quinn should make this defense somewhat better, putting Ryan and this offense in better situations. Again, he won't put up Rodgers or Luck type numbers, but he will rarely sink your fantasy team.
Jones is my pick to finish as the number one overall fantasy WR. Jones is in a contract year and will be wanting to prove that he deserves more than the lucrative contracts given to Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas this offseason. Jones caught 104 passes last season (3rd among WRs), but only reeled in six TDs (tied for 23rd among WRs). I expect those TD numbers to go up as he has been the best red zone target for the Falcons since Tony Gonzalez retired. He's an athletic freak that should become a target vacuum as Roddy White's age and declining health start to rear its ugly head. Expect big things from Julio this season.
Bust: Devonta Freeman, RB
Freeman's status was looking up prior to the draft as Steven Jackson finally left Atlanta, leaving Freeman to take over the starting role. Then came the NFL Draft when the Falcons selected Tevin Coleman out of Indiana with the 73rd overall pick. Coleman, a speedster who finished last season with 2,036 rushing yards, caused Freeman's value to drop and set up the makings of a committee, with perhaps Antone Smith involved as well. Freeman did little to impress when relieving Jackson last season, and should not be viewed as someone that has a firm grip on the starting job. I wouldn't be surprised if the Falcons use a rotation at the start of the season, before settling on Coleman as their workhorse back.
Sleeper: Tevin Coleman, RB
See Above. Coleman's stock is slowly rising, however, so make sure you still don't reach for him. Even if he does get starting duties, Atlanta's line is still one of the shakier in the league and the Falcons have never been shy about throwing the ball around. Coleman is probably only a low end RB2.
Bottom Line
The Ryan to Jones connection will be one to watch this season, particularly for owners who snag those two players. The RB situation should work itself out, hopefully before the start of the regular season. Targets are there for the likes of Roddy White and their group of TEs, but inconsistency will make all of them non-startable. Dan Quinn should get this defense out of the cellar, but not enough to be fantasy relevant.
Carolina Panthers
Studs: Greg Olsen, TE
I was already high on Olsen, but when Kelvin Benjamin went down with a season ending injury, I was through the roof. Some might think that all this will do is draw more defensive attention towards Olsen. That may be true. Remember, however, that people thought the same thing last season because the only other option was a rookie WR (Benjamin). Subsequently, Olsen went out and had his best year as a pro, finishing with career highs in targets, receptions, and yards. Olsen is such a crisp route runner and has great body positioning, that extra defensive attention is usually not an issue. Benjamin's injury will certainly mean more targets Olsen's way and I think he is productive with said targets. He is comfortably the number three overall TE, and could creep up to number two if the Seahawks underutilize Jimmy Graham.
Bust: Cam Newton, QB
After the Benjamin injury, it is hard to call Newton a bust because his draft stock will likely fall as well. Consider this the "Player Who Will Do Bad" section instead of the Bust section. While Newton still has Olsen, he now has to throw to WRs Devin Funchess (rookie), Jerricho Cotchery, and Domenik Hixon, making this WR corps one of the worst in the league. Funchess has the body to be a good WR, but never impressed me at Michigan and won't come close to the production they lost with Benjamin. Newton also has to play with an oft injured RB (Jonathan Stewart), backed up by a rookie RB (Cameron Artis-Payne). Playing behind a middle of the road offensive line, 2015 looks like a rough year for Cam.
Sleeper: Cameron Artis-Payne, RB
He may be a rookie, but CAP has a few things going for him. The starter in this backfield is Jonathan Stewart who looked good towards the end of last season, but also hasn't played a full 16 games since 2011. CAP also put up great numbers in college last season, rushing for 1608 yards and 13 TDs at Auburn. While playing at Auburn, he became comfortable with the zone read kind of plays that Newton likes to run, particularly down in the red zone. It will probably take a Stewart injury for CAP to have standalone value, but a Stewart injury is a distinct possibility. You must handcuff Stewart with CAP if you draft Stewart.
Bottom Line
Somehow winning the division with a 7-8-1 record in 2014, I see the Panthers taking a turn for the worse this season. Greg Hardy's absence was obvious with this defense as it was not nearly as dominant as it had been the year prior. Benjamin's injury really sinks this passing game as Olsen should be the only one that finds any sort of success. It will take a Superman-type effort from Cam Newton, and a bit of luck, if the Panthers are to win the division again this season.
New Orleans Saints
Studs: Drew Brees, QB, Mark Ingram, RB, Brandin Cooks (PPR), WR
While Brees may have had a down 2014 and lost Jimmy Graham in the offseason, there is still reason for optimism when drafting this guy. Brees finished sixth in fantasy scoring, despite having his first sub-5,000 yard season since 2010 and his lowest TD total since 2010. The good news is that he still led all QBs in attempts by 31 and has more than enough weapons around him to make up for the loss of Graham. WR Brandin Cooks, unavailable from Week 12 to the end of the season last year, returns healthy to start 2015. Old reliable Marques Colston returns, who has Brees' trust. They even brought in CJ Spiller and undrafted rookie Brandon Coleman to help out in the pass game. The Saints acquired Pro Bowler Max Unger in the Graham trade to protect Brees in 2015, after he was constantly under fire last season. Brees doesn't have the hype surrounding him as in past years, but I think he finishes as a top five QB.
After years of keeping Ingram in a committee of RBs, the Saints finally allowed Ingram to shoulder the load, giving him 226 carries in 13 games last season. While he wasn't able to top 1,000 yards, he did have four 100+ yard games and found the end zone nine times. I think the Saints finally realized they needed a more balanced attack and knew that Ingram was the guy to carry the load. The Saints did bring in CJ Spiller this year, but Spiller will be for the passing downs and will not get many, if any, red zone carries. Spiller is an intriguing PPR play, but Ingram should be the more consistent and reliable back. Max Unger's presence will also help the run game.
Cooks should only be considered a Stud in PPR leagues because of the crazy amount of targets he got as a rookie last season. In only ten games played, Cooks received 70 targets playing alongside the likes of Graham, Colston, and Pierre Thomas. He was inconsistent at times, but lit up the Falcons, Packers, and 49ers. With Graham's targets now in Seattle and Marques Colston's stats declining since 2012, expect Cooks to become the focal point of this passing game. Standard league owners may want to beware, as he never topped 94 yards in any game last season, but PPR owners should feel safe snagging Cooks.
Bust: Ingram, RB
It's not so much that Ingram will have a poor season, it's that he won't live up to his draft position. Guys like Alfred Morris and Chris Ivory are going after Ingram, despite also being two down thumping backs that will likely rely on TDs and a high number of carries to produce good fantasy numbers. I also don't think this Saints defense got any better, putting them in positions where they have to play catch up. In those scenarios, Spiller will see more time than Ingram. The numbers for Ingram might be decent, but I think you can get similar production later in the draft.
Sleeper: Marques Colston, WR
The more I read other people's opinions, the more I dislike this sleeper pick, but Colston has always been one of my favorite players, so I'm going to give him one last shot to be fantasy relevant. Targets in the passing game are up for grabs with Graham, Thomas, and Kenny Stills no longer part of the team. Regardless of the amount of targets Cooks got last season, Colston is still the WR that Brees trusts the most as the two of them have been playing with the Saints since Colston's rookie year in 2006. Although his numbers have dropped, Colston has remained healthy so he'll at least have a chance to capitalize on the available targets. His numbers aren't what they used to be, but I think he could have one last resurgence in 2015. He'll be a low-risk, medium-reward player.
Bottom Line
If this defense can turn around, the Saints could be the comeback story of the year. They lost their star TE, but still have one of the best QBs in the game, along with a deep and dynamic array of passing weapons. The balanced offensive attack sounds nice in theory, but I think they still air it out more than the average NFL team. I expect the Saints and the Falcons to be the two teams that battle it out for the NFC South crown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Studs: Mike Evans, WR
I wasn't too high on Evans last year, simply because he was an unproven rookie playing with the hilarious duo of Mike Glennon and Josh McCown at QB. While the QB play did lead to inconsistency at times, Evans quickly became a TD machine, as he racked up 12 in his rookie season. He had a three game stretch from Weeks 9-11 where he gained over 124 yards in each of those three games, including a 209 yarder in Washington. Evans does not come without risk, however. Towards the end of the season, he became way too TD dependent as he registered five TDs from Weeks 12-17, but never topped 54 yards. With those low yardage totals, even if he gets a TD, it's still only an average fantasy day. I think his current draft position is reasonable, but it would be foolish to reach for him.
Bust: All Bucs RBs
First it was Doug Martin. Then Bobby Rainey. Then Charles Sims. Then back to Martin. The Bucs' carousel of backs was dizzying last season and I think it continues into 2015. Lovie Smith has already said that he expects Martin to be the bell cow back to start the season, but I'll believe that when I see it. No matter who gets the carries, they will still be running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league as the Bucs finished 4th to last in rushing yards in 2014, despite starting their "best" back every week. One or two of them may have a good game here or there, but it will likely come out of nowhere while they are still on the waiver wire. I would avoid this group, even if one is named the number one back.
Sleeper: Vincent Jackson, WR
A few years ago, calling Jackson a sleeper when he was with Phillip Rivers in San Diego, would have been ludicrous. Flash forward to 2015, and his draft stock has absolutely tumbled because he plays for the Bucs and was overshadowed by the rookie Evans last season. Even with Evans' offensive explosion, Jackson still managed to go over 1,000 yards for the fourth straight season, and even garnered more targets and receptions than Evans. The thing that killed Jackson's fantasy value was the two receiving TDs. I would chalk that up to poor QB play and view it as an outlier, as Jackson had TD totals of 8 and 7 in his previous two years in Tampa. Jackson, once an injury concern, has yet to miss a game in a Bucs' uniform and might get less coverage this season as teams focus on Evans. Having a rookie as your QB will lead to inconsistencies, but I think Jackson will still be able to be productive. I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson actually outperforms Evans this year if Jackson's TDs return to normal and Evans' TDs regress.
Bottom Line
Jameis Winston actually has a fair bit of talent around him, but it will be up to him to make smart decisions and keep drives alive. The offensive line is a real question mark, as is the pass catching depth behind Jackson and Evans. While Lovie Smith might be a defensive coach, this defensive unit still has a couple more years until it can be considered solid. The Bucs look headed towards another single digit draft pick in the 2016 draft.
Matty O
Studs: Matt Ryan, QB, Julio Jones, WR
Ryan will never amaze in fantasy (never finished higher than the 7th best QB), but he is consistently in the top 10 and usually has a draft position that is reasonable. Ryan has one of the best wide receiver weapons in the game in Julio Jones, along with aging, but still capable, Roddy White. The Falcons also drafted Tevin Coleman to go along with Devonta Freeman to try and create a more balanced offense so that Ryan doesn't have to single handedly save the Falcons every game. New head coach Dan Quinn should make this defense somewhat better, putting Ryan and this offense in better situations. Again, he won't put up Rodgers or Luck type numbers, but he will rarely sink your fantasy team.
Jones is my pick to finish as the number one overall fantasy WR. Jones is in a contract year and will be wanting to prove that he deserves more than the lucrative contracts given to Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas this offseason. Jones caught 104 passes last season (3rd among WRs), but only reeled in six TDs (tied for 23rd among WRs). I expect those TD numbers to go up as he has been the best red zone target for the Falcons since Tony Gonzalez retired. He's an athletic freak that should become a target vacuum as Roddy White's age and declining health start to rear its ugly head. Expect big things from Julio this season.
Bust: Devonta Freeman, RB
Freeman's status was looking up prior to the draft as Steven Jackson finally left Atlanta, leaving Freeman to take over the starting role. Then came the NFL Draft when the Falcons selected Tevin Coleman out of Indiana with the 73rd overall pick. Coleman, a speedster who finished last season with 2,036 rushing yards, caused Freeman's value to drop and set up the makings of a committee, with perhaps Antone Smith involved as well. Freeman did little to impress when relieving Jackson last season, and should not be viewed as someone that has a firm grip on the starting job. I wouldn't be surprised if the Falcons use a rotation at the start of the season, before settling on Coleman as their workhorse back.
Sleeper: Tevin Coleman, RB
See Above. Coleman's stock is slowly rising, however, so make sure you still don't reach for him. Even if he does get starting duties, Atlanta's line is still one of the shakier in the league and the Falcons have never been shy about throwing the ball around. Coleman is probably only a low end RB2.
Bottom Line
The Ryan to Jones connection will be one to watch this season, particularly for owners who snag those two players. The RB situation should work itself out, hopefully before the start of the regular season. Targets are there for the likes of Roddy White and their group of TEs, but inconsistency will make all of them non-startable. Dan Quinn should get this defense out of the cellar, but not enough to be fantasy relevant.
Carolina Panthers
Studs: Greg Olsen, TE
I was already high on Olsen, but when Kelvin Benjamin went down with a season ending injury, I was through the roof. Some might think that all this will do is draw more defensive attention towards Olsen. That may be true. Remember, however, that people thought the same thing last season because the only other option was a rookie WR (Benjamin). Subsequently, Olsen went out and had his best year as a pro, finishing with career highs in targets, receptions, and yards. Olsen is such a crisp route runner and has great body positioning, that extra defensive attention is usually not an issue. Benjamin's injury will certainly mean more targets Olsen's way and I think he is productive with said targets. He is comfortably the number three overall TE, and could creep up to number two if the Seahawks underutilize Jimmy Graham.
Bust: Cam Newton, QB
After the Benjamin injury, it is hard to call Newton a bust because his draft stock will likely fall as well. Consider this the "Player Who Will Do Bad" section instead of the Bust section. While Newton still has Olsen, he now has to throw to WRs Devin Funchess (rookie), Jerricho Cotchery, and Domenik Hixon, making this WR corps one of the worst in the league. Funchess has the body to be a good WR, but never impressed me at Michigan and won't come close to the production they lost with Benjamin. Newton also has to play with an oft injured RB (Jonathan Stewart), backed up by a rookie RB (Cameron Artis-Payne). Playing behind a middle of the road offensive line, 2015 looks like a rough year for Cam.
Sleeper: Cameron Artis-Payne, RB
He may be a rookie, but CAP has a few things going for him. The starter in this backfield is Jonathan Stewart who looked good towards the end of last season, but also hasn't played a full 16 games since 2011. CAP also put up great numbers in college last season, rushing for 1608 yards and 13 TDs at Auburn. While playing at Auburn, he became comfortable with the zone read kind of plays that Newton likes to run, particularly down in the red zone. It will probably take a Stewart injury for CAP to have standalone value, but a Stewart injury is a distinct possibility. You must handcuff Stewart with CAP if you draft Stewart.
Bottom Line
Somehow winning the division with a 7-8-1 record in 2014, I see the Panthers taking a turn for the worse this season. Greg Hardy's absence was obvious with this defense as it was not nearly as dominant as it had been the year prior. Benjamin's injury really sinks this passing game as Olsen should be the only one that finds any sort of success. It will take a Superman-type effort from Cam Newton, and a bit of luck, if the Panthers are to win the division again this season.
New Orleans Saints
Studs: Drew Brees, QB, Mark Ingram, RB, Brandin Cooks (PPR), WR
While Brees may have had a down 2014 and lost Jimmy Graham in the offseason, there is still reason for optimism when drafting this guy. Brees finished sixth in fantasy scoring, despite having his first sub-5,000 yard season since 2010 and his lowest TD total since 2010. The good news is that he still led all QBs in attempts by 31 and has more than enough weapons around him to make up for the loss of Graham. WR Brandin Cooks, unavailable from Week 12 to the end of the season last year, returns healthy to start 2015. Old reliable Marques Colston returns, who has Brees' trust. They even brought in CJ Spiller and undrafted rookie Brandon Coleman to help out in the pass game. The Saints acquired Pro Bowler Max Unger in the Graham trade to protect Brees in 2015, after he was constantly under fire last season. Brees doesn't have the hype surrounding him as in past years, but I think he finishes as a top five QB.
After years of keeping Ingram in a committee of RBs, the Saints finally allowed Ingram to shoulder the load, giving him 226 carries in 13 games last season. While he wasn't able to top 1,000 yards, he did have four 100+ yard games and found the end zone nine times. I think the Saints finally realized they needed a more balanced attack and knew that Ingram was the guy to carry the load. The Saints did bring in CJ Spiller this year, but Spiller will be for the passing downs and will not get many, if any, red zone carries. Spiller is an intriguing PPR play, but Ingram should be the more consistent and reliable back. Max Unger's presence will also help the run game.
Cooks should only be considered a Stud in PPR leagues because of the crazy amount of targets he got as a rookie last season. In only ten games played, Cooks received 70 targets playing alongside the likes of Graham, Colston, and Pierre Thomas. He was inconsistent at times, but lit up the Falcons, Packers, and 49ers. With Graham's targets now in Seattle and Marques Colston's stats declining since 2012, expect Cooks to become the focal point of this passing game. Standard league owners may want to beware, as he never topped 94 yards in any game last season, but PPR owners should feel safe snagging Cooks.
Bust: Ingram, RB
It's not so much that Ingram will have a poor season, it's that he won't live up to his draft position. Guys like Alfred Morris and Chris Ivory are going after Ingram, despite also being two down thumping backs that will likely rely on TDs and a high number of carries to produce good fantasy numbers. I also don't think this Saints defense got any better, putting them in positions where they have to play catch up. In those scenarios, Spiller will see more time than Ingram. The numbers for Ingram might be decent, but I think you can get similar production later in the draft.
Sleeper: Marques Colston, WR
The more I read other people's opinions, the more I dislike this sleeper pick, but Colston has always been one of my favorite players, so I'm going to give him one last shot to be fantasy relevant. Targets in the passing game are up for grabs with Graham, Thomas, and Kenny Stills no longer part of the team. Regardless of the amount of targets Cooks got last season, Colston is still the WR that Brees trusts the most as the two of them have been playing with the Saints since Colston's rookie year in 2006. Although his numbers have dropped, Colston has remained healthy so he'll at least have a chance to capitalize on the available targets. His numbers aren't what they used to be, but I think he could have one last resurgence in 2015. He'll be a low-risk, medium-reward player.
Bottom Line
If this defense can turn around, the Saints could be the comeback story of the year. They lost their star TE, but still have one of the best QBs in the game, along with a deep and dynamic array of passing weapons. The balanced offensive attack sounds nice in theory, but I think they still air it out more than the average NFL team. I expect the Saints and the Falcons to be the two teams that battle it out for the NFC South crown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Studs: Mike Evans, WR
I wasn't too high on Evans last year, simply because he was an unproven rookie playing with the hilarious duo of Mike Glennon and Josh McCown at QB. While the QB play did lead to inconsistency at times, Evans quickly became a TD machine, as he racked up 12 in his rookie season. He had a three game stretch from Weeks 9-11 where he gained over 124 yards in each of those three games, including a 209 yarder in Washington. Evans does not come without risk, however. Towards the end of the season, he became way too TD dependent as he registered five TDs from Weeks 12-17, but never topped 54 yards. With those low yardage totals, even if he gets a TD, it's still only an average fantasy day. I think his current draft position is reasonable, but it would be foolish to reach for him.
Bust: All Bucs RBs
First it was Doug Martin. Then Bobby Rainey. Then Charles Sims. Then back to Martin. The Bucs' carousel of backs was dizzying last season and I think it continues into 2015. Lovie Smith has already said that he expects Martin to be the bell cow back to start the season, but I'll believe that when I see it. No matter who gets the carries, they will still be running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league as the Bucs finished 4th to last in rushing yards in 2014, despite starting their "best" back every week. One or two of them may have a good game here or there, but it will likely come out of nowhere while they are still on the waiver wire. I would avoid this group, even if one is named the number one back.
Sleeper: Vincent Jackson, WR
A few years ago, calling Jackson a sleeper when he was with Phillip Rivers in San Diego, would have been ludicrous. Flash forward to 2015, and his draft stock has absolutely tumbled because he plays for the Bucs and was overshadowed by the rookie Evans last season. Even with Evans' offensive explosion, Jackson still managed to go over 1,000 yards for the fourth straight season, and even garnered more targets and receptions than Evans. The thing that killed Jackson's fantasy value was the two receiving TDs. I would chalk that up to poor QB play and view it as an outlier, as Jackson had TD totals of 8 and 7 in his previous two years in Tampa. Jackson, once an injury concern, has yet to miss a game in a Bucs' uniform and might get less coverage this season as teams focus on Evans. Having a rookie as your QB will lead to inconsistencies, but I think Jackson will still be able to be productive. I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson actually outperforms Evans this year if Jackson's TDs return to normal and Evans' TDs regress.
Bottom Line
Jameis Winston actually has a fair bit of talent around him, but it will be up to him to make smart decisions and keep drives alive. The offensive line is a real question mark, as is the pass catching depth behind Jackson and Evans. While Lovie Smith might be a defensive coach, this defensive unit still has a couple more years until it can be considered solid. The Bucs look headed towards another single digit draft pick in the 2016 draft.
Matty O
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
2015 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC South
Houston Texans
Studs: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Defense/Special Teams
Hopkins is now in the same situation that Andre Johnson was for years and years, as he is now the only reliable option in the passing game, but has to catch balls from average to below average QBs. After a decent, but inconsistent rookie season in 2013, Hopkins became a solid fantasy starter in 2014 by putting up 1,210 yards and six TDs. He even outperformed fellow teammate Andre Johnson in yards and TDs. Johnson is now in Indy and his 147 targets in 2014 are up for grabs. Hopkins received 127 targets on his own last season with Johnson around, so expect Hopkins' target number to reach around 150. Hopkins is fast, strong, and can make plays on poorly thrown balls. From a fantasy perspective, owners should hope that Ryan Mallet wins the starting QB job as he has the better arm, but I think Hopkins will be successful regardless of who is under center.
Any discussions regarding this defensive unit begin and end with JJ Watt. Watt was a nominee for NFL MVP last season and is certainly the best defensive player in the NFL. He pressures QBs, gets sacks, knocks down balls, forces turnovers, and scores TDs. The Texans also added Vince Wilfork to go along with Watt on the defensive line, and Jadeveon Clowney appears as though he might return sometime this season, though his usage is unknown. Houston also decided to beef up their defense through the draft as they spent their first round pick on CB Kevin Johnson and their second round pick on LB Benardrick McKinney. This unit finished 4th in fantasy D/ST scoring last season and is locked in as a top 10 unit, particularly playing in the same division as a first and second year QB (they even had 22 combined fantasy points in two games against Andrew Luck last year).
Bust: Alfred Blue, RB
Blue was one of the more valuable handcuffs last season as Arian Foster has consistently struggled with injuries. The problem is that even though Blue got the first crack at carries when Foster went down, Blue did not excel when given his chances. In 2014, Foster missed Weeks 3, 11, and 12. In those three games, Blue totaled zero TDs and, although he had a 156 yard game, he needed 36 carries to get those yards. Blue will probably be the first healthy Texans' RB off the board, but I'm not so sure he is the one to own.
Sleeper: Chris Polk, RB
The Texans' backfield is full of unproven backs behind Foster, so why not take the guy who at least finds the end zone? While playing behind LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles in Philadelphia, Polk still managed to steal goal line looks, particularly towards the end of 2014. From Week 9 to the end of the season, Polk scored four rushing TDs on only 43 carries. McCoy, in that same time period, scored four rushing TDs on 177 carries. Polk's prowess between the 20s is unknown as he has only gotten 57 carries in two seasons with the Eagles, but Chip Kelly clearly trusted him in the red zone even with McCoy there. Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes are no LeSean McCoy so there's a good chance Polk finds the end zone multiple times this season. He might even continue to see goal line looks when/if Arian Foster is healthy. He'll probably go undrafted, but could rack up the most fantasy points while Foster is injured.
Bottom Line
If this team had a decent QB, they would be considered one of the more dangerous teams in the league. They have a solid offensive line, decent WR depth with the drafting of Jaelen Strong and signing Cecil Shorts, and one of the best defenses in the league. We already know what Brian Hoyer can bring to the table, but maybe Ryan Mallet finally lives up to expectations and becomes a good QB. If so, this is a team that could make the loaded Indianapolis Colts nervous as they battle for the AFC South crown.
Indianapolis Colts
Studs: Andrew Luck, QB, TY Hilton, WR, Andre Johnson, WR, Frank Gore, RB, Adam Vinatieri, K
Luck is quite clearly one of the two best fantasy QBs for 2015, and you could argue that he should be taken ahead of Aaron Rodgers. The Colts' offense was already a juggernaut in 2014, so of course they go out and get Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, and draft WR Phillip Dorsett in the first round. Luck will have no shortage of weapons to throw to, and should have plenty of opportunities to get fantasy points after attempting 616 passes last season. If he can keep his interceptions down, he has a real shot to be the overall fantasy MVP.
Hilton is one of the few non-new Colts to be featured in this offense. Once Reggie Wayne started to fade last season, Hilton took over and proved that he could be the next great Colt WR, following in Marvin Harrison and Wayne's footsteps. Hilton doesn't possess the size of Harrison or Wayne, but he does have wheels that neither of them had. Hilton received 130 targets in 2014, despite missing the final two games of the regular season. His inconsistency will sometimes frustrate you, though he has gotten better about stringing together solid performances. His red zone looks will be limited with Dwayne Allen and Johnson around, but he should be fine in regards to receptions and deep balls. Hilton is a safe WR2, possible WR1.
#FreeAndre. It actually looked like Johnson was going to another team last year, as he tried to force the Texans to trade him prior to the 2014 season, as he did not want to be part of another rebuilding project at the end of his career. Instead, the Texans stood firm and Johnson played out the 2014 season with more terrible QB play. Johnson still managed 85 receptions, but failed to top 1,000 yards and only hauled in three TDs. Now on a Super Bowl contending team with an elite QB, Johnson should find new fantasy life in Indy. While he may have lost some of his speed, his size still makes him a dangerous red zone threat and he should get plenty of work in between the 20s as well. I doubt he sees the 147 targets he saw last season, but the yards and certainly the TDs should go up.
While Frank Gore wasn't in as bad of a situation as Johnson, his new situation with the Colts is much better than the one in San Francisco. Gore would constantly be facing packed boxes in San Francisco as it was no secret the Niners liked to pound the ball, and Colin Kaepernick is a much poorer thrower of the football than Andrew Luck. The only downside I see here is that Gore did have a much better offensive line in San Fran, though I think facing defenses that have to worry about Luck's passes should offset that to some degree. Like Johnson, Gore is getting up there in age (32), but has played in all 16 games the last four seasons. His age and Dan Herron's pass catching success in 2014 might cause Gore to only be a two down player, but I still think he surpasses 1,000 yards and is a good bet for double digit TDs.
Yes, I put a kicker in the Stud category, but for good reason. In 2014, Vinatieri only missed one kick the entire season (30/31 on FG, 50/50 on PAT) in Week 17. He plays his home games in a dome and is in the same division as the Texans (retractable roof), Jaguars (Jacksonville weather), and the Titans (Tennessee weather). The Colts also get to go to Atlanta (dome) and sunny Miami late in the year. The Colt offense has the potential to be even better this season, giving Vinatieri even more chances to put up points. He's locked in as a top 3 kicker.
Bust: None
I see this offense being similar to the Denver Broncos in 2013, being able to support three WRs, a TE, and feature RB. This should be a near unstoppable force in 2015.
Sleeper: Dwayne Allen, TE
Allen is given a low draft position because he struggles to stay healthy, plays on a team with another regularly used TE in Coby Fleener, and doesn't rack up a lot of yardage or receptions. One thing he does well, however, is score TDs. Despite a very pedestrian 395 yards, Allen still hauled in eight TD receptions, vaulting him to 13th among all TEs last season in fantasy points. Allen is very TD dependent, but most TEs are late in the draft and he does it the best. He might burn you if he doesn't find the end zone, but will easily outperform his ranking when he does. His value would rise if anything were to happen to Fleener.
Bottom Line
The transition from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck has gone very smoothly as the Colts continue to dominate the mediocre AFC South. Their offense should be even better than last year's version, though their run defense will need to improve before they can hope to make it to the Super Bowl. They might finish with the best regular season record in the NFL this season, but I think they come up short of a Super Bowl appearance once again.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Stud: None
Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas are considerations for this category, but Robinson couldn't stay healthy last season and Thomas is going from the penthouse with Peyton Manning to the projects with Blake Bortles. His draft stock has predictably tumbled.
Bust: TJ Yeldon, RB
I was actually high on Yeldon early in the off season, but have cooled off on him since then. While he may have been the feature back at Alabama, he never finished higher than third in rushing yards in the SEC, 4th in TDs in the SEC, and 4th in plays from scrimmage in the SEC. He did carry an impressive yards per carry average (6.3 in 2012, 6.0 in 2013, 5.0 in 2014), but that is sure to go down as he switches from running behind Alabama's line to running behind the Jags' line. The good news for Yeldon is he has little competition and is at least competent in the pass game, but I think the offensive line and QB struggles will cap whatever upside Yeldon has. He could turn out to be a serviceable RB based solely on volume, but I think he gets held back by the team he is on.
Sleeper: Allen Robinson, WR
While Robinson did suffer a season ending foot injury in the middle of last season and is only in his second year as a pro, he is also arguably the most reliable pass catcher on this roster. Robinson was expected to be eased into the offense last year, but due to Cecil Shorts and Marquise Lee struggling with injuries, Robinson was relied on to be a source of offense. He responded by having a very steady nine game stretch from Weeks 2-10, topping 60+ yards six times, hauling in 47 passes, and scoring two TDs. Those numbers wouldn't look impressive with the Packers or Steelers, but those are above average for this Jags team who had a rookie QB in 2014. Robinson will open the season as the Jags' number one WR, and hopefully he will benefit from Blake Bortles' progression from his rookie year to his sophomore year. Robinson could be a low end WR2, but will probably wind up as a solid WR3/FLEX.
Bottom Line
The Jags won't surpass the Colts or Texans, but they are definitely getting better. Their real life and fantasy success rests on the shoulders of Blake Bortles and whether or not he can make strides in his second year. This defense will be better, hopefully putting this team and Bortles in better spots where they don't simply have to play catch up. Julius Thomas might be a recognizable name, but he struggled with injuries in Denver and got most of his value from back to back 12 TD seasons. I think five scores is more likely in this offense, and that's if he stays healthy.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: Delanie Walker, TE
After years of being stuck behind Vernon Davis in San Francisco, Walker came over to the Titans in 2013 and finished 12th among TEs that season and 9th among TEs in 2014 in terms of fantasy scoring. He is sort of in the Jason Witten mold in that he's not going to burn you or do anything spectacular, but he's a good route runner and always seems to make himself available for his QB. He put up 63 receptions, almost 900 yards, and four TDs on a Titans' team that was near the bottom in every offensive statistical category last season. Whether or not you think Marcus Mariota is the answer at QB for the Titans, I don't think he is a drop off at all from Zach Mettenberger or Charlie Whitehurst. Walker's situation hasn't gotten better, but it hasn't gotten worse, so I think you can expect similar numbers from last season. He's a sneaky bet to finish in the top 10 for fantasy TEs, despite playing on a below average offense.
Bust: Bishop Sankey, RB
I'll admit that I was one of the guys that was drinking the Sankey Kool-Aid before the start of last season. Sankey got glowing remarks coming out of college and was in line to be the featured back in this Tennessee offense. While he did turn out to be the feature back, he put up very poor statistics to back that up. His highest yardage total in any game last season was 61 against the Jags and Bengals, and he only managed to score two rushing TDs all year. He got double digit carries in eight contests last season, and still finished with only 569 yards and a 3.7 yards per carry average. Sankey may be the starting RB for the Titans by default, but his leash will be much shorter with rookie fifth round pick David Cobb around. If Sankey continues to struggle, it would surprise no one if he becomes part of a committee with Cobb sometime this season.
Sleeper: Marcus Mariota, QB
Like any highly drafted QB that comes into the league, there will be those that believe in him and those that think he will be a bust. It's not that I believe Mariota will be a great overall QB that makes me put him in the Sleeper category, but rather that I think he has all the tools needed to be a good fantasy QB. The knock against Mariota is that people don't think he can throw in the NFL, but for fantasy purposes, based on how low his draft position is, I really don't care. All I care about is that he can absolutely fly if he finds space to run. Since rushing yards count for more points than passing yards in fantasy and rushing TDs count for more than passing TDs (in some leagues), then his legs should help to keep his fantasy floor high, even if his ceiling is capped. Another thing to keep in mind is that people knock Mariota because his receivers were wide open at Oregon, but they were often times wide open because defense had to account for Mariota's scrambling and play making ability. While defenses in the NFL might be bigger and faster, they will still need to account for Mariota's speed when he gets outside the pocket, which should open up passing lanes and make life easier for Marcus. Not everyone is going to see eye to eye when it comes to Martiota, but given his low draft stock, elite speed, and better-than-perceived arm, I think he provides some kind of fantasy value this season, particularly as the season wears on.
Bottom Line
Despite rumors of a Phillip Rivers to Tennessee trade prior to the draft, the Titans decided to go all-in on Marcus Mariota and took him second overall. It will be interesting to see if head coach Ken Whisenhunt tries to force Mariota to run his offense, or puts in some of the spread, up-tempo kind of plays that Mariota ran at Oregon. The WR situation is up in the air, though Kendall Wright might be able to return some value in PPR leagues. Brian Orakpo was a nice pick up through free agency, but their defense is still one of the worst in the league. Unless Mariota has an RG3 type rookie season, expect this team to finish under 500, and possibly last in the division.
Matty O
Studs: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Defense/Special Teams
Hopkins is now in the same situation that Andre Johnson was for years and years, as he is now the only reliable option in the passing game, but has to catch balls from average to below average QBs. After a decent, but inconsistent rookie season in 2013, Hopkins became a solid fantasy starter in 2014 by putting up 1,210 yards and six TDs. He even outperformed fellow teammate Andre Johnson in yards and TDs. Johnson is now in Indy and his 147 targets in 2014 are up for grabs. Hopkins received 127 targets on his own last season with Johnson around, so expect Hopkins' target number to reach around 150. Hopkins is fast, strong, and can make plays on poorly thrown balls. From a fantasy perspective, owners should hope that Ryan Mallet wins the starting QB job as he has the better arm, but I think Hopkins will be successful regardless of who is under center.
Any discussions regarding this defensive unit begin and end with JJ Watt. Watt was a nominee for NFL MVP last season and is certainly the best defensive player in the NFL. He pressures QBs, gets sacks, knocks down balls, forces turnovers, and scores TDs. The Texans also added Vince Wilfork to go along with Watt on the defensive line, and Jadeveon Clowney appears as though he might return sometime this season, though his usage is unknown. Houston also decided to beef up their defense through the draft as they spent their first round pick on CB Kevin Johnson and their second round pick on LB Benardrick McKinney. This unit finished 4th in fantasy D/ST scoring last season and is locked in as a top 10 unit, particularly playing in the same division as a first and second year QB (they even had 22 combined fantasy points in two games against Andrew Luck last year).
Bust: Alfred Blue, RB
Blue was one of the more valuable handcuffs last season as Arian Foster has consistently struggled with injuries. The problem is that even though Blue got the first crack at carries when Foster went down, Blue did not excel when given his chances. In 2014, Foster missed Weeks 3, 11, and 12. In those three games, Blue totaled zero TDs and, although he had a 156 yard game, he needed 36 carries to get those yards. Blue will probably be the first healthy Texans' RB off the board, but I'm not so sure he is the one to own.
Sleeper: Chris Polk, RB
The Texans' backfield is full of unproven backs behind Foster, so why not take the guy who at least finds the end zone? While playing behind LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles in Philadelphia, Polk still managed to steal goal line looks, particularly towards the end of 2014. From Week 9 to the end of the season, Polk scored four rushing TDs on only 43 carries. McCoy, in that same time period, scored four rushing TDs on 177 carries. Polk's prowess between the 20s is unknown as he has only gotten 57 carries in two seasons with the Eagles, but Chip Kelly clearly trusted him in the red zone even with McCoy there. Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes are no LeSean McCoy so there's a good chance Polk finds the end zone multiple times this season. He might even continue to see goal line looks when/if Arian Foster is healthy. He'll probably go undrafted, but could rack up the most fantasy points while Foster is injured.
Bottom Line
If this team had a decent QB, they would be considered one of the more dangerous teams in the league. They have a solid offensive line, decent WR depth with the drafting of Jaelen Strong and signing Cecil Shorts, and one of the best defenses in the league. We already know what Brian Hoyer can bring to the table, but maybe Ryan Mallet finally lives up to expectations and becomes a good QB. If so, this is a team that could make the loaded Indianapolis Colts nervous as they battle for the AFC South crown.
Indianapolis Colts
Studs: Andrew Luck, QB, TY Hilton, WR, Andre Johnson, WR, Frank Gore, RB, Adam Vinatieri, K
Luck is quite clearly one of the two best fantasy QBs for 2015, and you could argue that he should be taken ahead of Aaron Rodgers. The Colts' offense was already a juggernaut in 2014, so of course they go out and get Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, and draft WR Phillip Dorsett in the first round. Luck will have no shortage of weapons to throw to, and should have plenty of opportunities to get fantasy points after attempting 616 passes last season. If he can keep his interceptions down, he has a real shot to be the overall fantasy MVP.
Hilton is one of the few non-new Colts to be featured in this offense. Once Reggie Wayne started to fade last season, Hilton took over and proved that he could be the next great Colt WR, following in Marvin Harrison and Wayne's footsteps. Hilton doesn't possess the size of Harrison or Wayne, but he does have wheels that neither of them had. Hilton received 130 targets in 2014, despite missing the final two games of the regular season. His inconsistency will sometimes frustrate you, though he has gotten better about stringing together solid performances. His red zone looks will be limited with Dwayne Allen and Johnson around, but he should be fine in regards to receptions and deep balls. Hilton is a safe WR2, possible WR1.
#FreeAndre. It actually looked like Johnson was going to another team last year, as he tried to force the Texans to trade him prior to the 2014 season, as he did not want to be part of another rebuilding project at the end of his career. Instead, the Texans stood firm and Johnson played out the 2014 season with more terrible QB play. Johnson still managed 85 receptions, but failed to top 1,000 yards and only hauled in three TDs. Now on a Super Bowl contending team with an elite QB, Johnson should find new fantasy life in Indy. While he may have lost some of his speed, his size still makes him a dangerous red zone threat and he should get plenty of work in between the 20s as well. I doubt he sees the 147 targets he saw last season, but the yards and certainly the TDs should go up.
While Frank Gore wasn't in as bad of a situation as Johnson, his new situation with the Colts is much better than the one in San Francisco. Gore would constantly be facing packed boxes in San Francisco as it was no secret the Niners liked to pound the ball, and Colin Kaepernick is a much poorer thrower of the football than Andrew Luck. The only downside I see here is that Gore did have a much better offensive line in San Fran, though I think facing defenses that have to worry about Luck's passes should offset that to some degree. Like Johnson, Gore is getting up there in age (32), but has played in all 16 games the last four seasons. His age and Dan Herron's pass catching success in 2014 might cause Gore to only be a two down player, but I still think he surpasses 1,000 yards and is a good bet for double digit TDs.
Yes, I put a kicker in the Stud category, but for good reason. In 2014, Vinatieri only missed one kick the entire season (30/31 on FG, 50/50 on PAT) in Week 17. He plays his home games in a dome and is in the same division as the Texans (retractable roof), Jaguars (Jacksonville weather), and the Titans (Tennessee weather). The Colts also get to go to Atlanta (dome) and sunny Miami late in the year. The Colt offense has the potential to be even better this season, giving Vinatieri even more chances to put up points. He's locked in as a top 3 kicker.
Bust: None
I see this offense being similar to the Denver Broncos in 2013, being able to support three WRs, a TE, and feature RB. This should be a near unstoppable force in 2015.
Sleeper: Dwayne Allen, TE
Allen is given a low draft position because he struggles to stay healthy, plays on a team with another regularly used TE in Coby Fleener, and doesn't rack up a lot of yardage or receptions. One thing he does well, however, is score TDs. Despite a very pedestrian 395 yards, Allen still hauled in eight TD receptions, vaulting him to 13th among all TEs last season in fantasy points. Allen is very TD dependent, but most TEs are late in the draft and he does it the best. He might burn you if he doesn't find the end zone, but will easily outperform his ranking when he does. His value would rise if anything were to happen to Fleener.
Bottom Line
The transition from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck has gone very smoothly as the Colts continue to dominate the mediocre AFC South. Their offense should be even better than last year's version, though their run defense will need to improve before they can hope to make it to the Super Bowl. They might finish with the best regular season record in the NFL this season, but I think they come up short of a Super Bowl appearance once again.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Stud: None
Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas are considerations for this category, but Robinson couldn't stay healthy last season and Thomas is going from the penthouse with Peyton Manning to the projects with Blake Bortles. His draft stock has predictably tumbled.
Bust: TJ Yeldon, RB
I was actually high on Yeldon early in the off season, but have cooled off on him since then. While he may have been the feature back at Alabama, he never finished higher than third in rushing yards in the SEC, 4th in TDs in the SEC, and 4th in plays from scrimmage in the SEC. He did carry an impressive yards per carry average (6.3 in 2012, 6.0 in 2013, 5.0 in 2014), but that is sure to go down as he switches from running behind Alabama's line to running behind the Jags' line. The good news for Yeldon is he has little competition and is at least competent in the pass game, but I think the offensive line and QB struggles will cap whatever upside Yeldon has. He could turn out to be a serviceable RB based solely on volume, but I think he gets held back by the team he is on.
Sleeper: Allen Robinson, WR
While Robinson did suffer a season ending foot injury in the middle of last season and is only in his second year as a pro, he is also arguably the most reliable pass catcher on this roster. Robinson was expected to be eased into the offense last year, but due to Cecil Shorts and Marquise Lee struggling with injuries, Robinson was relied on to be a source of offense. He responded by having a very steady nine game stretch from Weeks 2-10, topping 60+ yards six times, hauling in 47 passes, and scoring two TDs. Those numbers wouldn't look impressive with the Packers or Steelers, but those are above average for this Jags team who had a rookie QB in 2014. Robinson will open the season as the Jags' number one WR, and hopefully he will benefit from Blake Bortles' progression from his rookie year to his sophomore year. Robinson could be a low end WR2, but will probably wind up as a solid WR3/FLEX.
Bottom Line
The Jags won't surpass the Colts or Texans, but they are definitely getting better. Their real life and fantasy success rests on the shoulders of Blake Bortles and whether or not he can make strides in his second year. This defense will be better, hopefully putting this team and Bortles in better spots where they don't simply have to play catch up. Julius Thomas might be a recognizable name, but he struggled with injuries in Denver and got most of his value from back to back 12 TD seasons. I think five scores is more likely in this offense, and that's if he stays healthy.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: Delanie Walker, TE
After years of being stuck behind Vernon Davis in San Francisco, Walker came over to the Titans in 2013 and finished 12th among TEs that season and 9th among TEs in 2014 in terms of fantasy scoring. He is sort of in the Jason Witten mold in that he's not going to burn you or do anything spectacular, but he's a good route runner and always seems to make himself available for his QB. He put up 63 receptions, almost 900 yards, and four TDs on a Titans' team that was near the bottom in every offensive statistical category last season. Whether or not you think Marcus Mariota is the answer at QB for the Titans, I don't think he is a drop off at all from Zach Mettenberger or Charlie Whitehurst. Walker's situation hasn't gotten better, but it hasn't gotten worse, so I think you can expect similar numbers from last season. He's a sneaky bet to finish in the top 10 for fantasy TEs, despite playing on a below average offense.
Bust: Bishop Sankey, RB
I'll admit that I was one of the guys that was drinking the Sankey Kool-Aid before the start of last season. Sankey got glowing remarks coming out of college and was in line to be the featured back in this Tennessee offense. While he did turn out to be the feature back, he put up very poor statistics to back that up. His highest yardage total in any game last season was 61 against the Jags and Bengals, and he only managed to score two rushing TDs all year. He got double digit carries in eight contests last season, and still finished with only 569 yards and a 3.7 yards per carry average. Sankey may be the starting RB for the Titans by default, but his leash will be much shorter with rookie fifth round pick David Cobb around. If Sankey continues to struggle, it would surprise no one if he becomes part of a committee with Cobb sometime this season.
Sleeper: Marcus Mariota, QB
Like any highly drafted QB that comes into the league, there will be those that believe in him and those that think he will be a bust. It's not that I believe Mariota will be a great overall QB that makes me put him in the Sleeper category, but rather that I think he has all the tools needed to be a good fantasy QB. The knock against Mariota is that people don't think he can throw in the NFL, but for fantasy purposes, based on how low his draft position is, I really don't care. All I care about is that he can absolutely fly if he finds space to run. Since rushing yards count for more points than passing yards in fantasy and rushing TDs count for more than passing TDs (in some leagues), then his legs should help to keep his fantasy floor high, even if his ceiling is capped. Another thing to keep in mind is that people knock Mariota because his receivers were wide open at Oregon, but they were often times wide open because defense had to account for Mariota's scrambling and play making ability. While defenses in the NFL might be bigger and faster, they will still need to account for Mariota's speed when he gets outside the pocket, which should open up passing lanes and make life easier for Marcus. Not everyone is going to see eye to eye when it comes to Martiota, but given his low draft stock, elite speed, and better-than-perceived arm, I think he provides some kind of fantasy value this season, particularly as the season wears on.
Bottom Line
Despite rumors of a Phillip Rivers to Tennessee trade prior to the draft, the Titans decided to go all-in on Marcus Mariota and took him second overall. It will be interesting to see if head coach Ken Whisenhunt tries to force Mariota to run his offense, or puts in some of the spread, up-tempo kind of plays that Mariota ran at Oregon. The WR situation is up in the air, though Kendall Wright might be able to return some value in PPR leagues. Brian Orakpo was a nice pick up through free agency, but their defense is still one of the worst in the league. Unless Mariota has an RG3 type rookie season, expect this team to finish under 500, and possibly last in the division.
Matty O
Sunday, August 16, 2015
2015 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Studs: Justin Forsett, RB, Steve Smith, WR, Defense/Special Teams
Forsett, already on his fourth NFL team prior to turning 30, paid dividends last year as he took advantage of off field (Ray Rice) and on field (Bernard Pierce) RB problems to become the Ravens' number one RB. From Week 6 to the end of the season, he only had one game where he saw single digit carries, and he had four games of 20+ carries. While some experts think this was more of an anomaly than a sign of things to come, I still think he will excel in 2015. With Ray Rice officially out of the picture, his only competition is Lorenzo Taliaferro and rookie Buck Allen. The Ravens also added Mark Trestman as their offensive coordinator, who gave Matt Forte 266 carries and 130 targets in the passing game last season. Forsett was already a capable pass catcher (44 receptions in 2014) and should flirt with the 70-90 range with Trestman calling the shots. I'm high on Forsett this season, and think he finishes as a top 10 PPR back, and top 20 standard league back.
Even at age 36, I'm still listing Smith as a Stud for a few reasons. For starters, he had a rather productive year in 2014, topping 1,000 yards, while hauling in 79 receptions and six TDs. He did struggle down the stretch, but so did the Ravens' passing game as a whole. Similar to Forsett, he has little to no competition for targets behind him as Torrey Smith is now in San Francisco and rookie Breshad Perriman has been struggling with injuries all of training camp. He and Joe Flacco have had a year to establish chemistry together, and I expect that to continue in 2015. Smith already announced that 2015 will be his last season and I have no doubt that he will be motivated to make it a memorable one. A motivated Steve Smith is a scary thing.
This D/ST unit tied for sixth among fantasy defenses last season, never had a zero or negative fantasy point game, and did all this despite scoring only three D/ST TDs. Their run defense was once again stout, but they struggled to stop the pass, finishing in the bottom half of the league in pass defense. The good news is their pass defense woes of 2014 were likely to due to injuries piling up, allowing some of the guys lower on the depth chart to get some playing time and experience. They are healthier to start the year and should improve upon their 23rd ranked pass defense. This will always be one of the most feared defenses in the NFL, and is one of the safer defenses to pick for fantasy purposes.
Bust: None
I suppose Perriman could go here, but I'd have to wait until he gets healthy. His draft stock is slowly falling, even though he should make some noise once he actually gets on the field. Everyone else in the Stud category seems pretty safe where they are ranked.
Sleeper: Maxx Williams, TE
Although rookie TEs traditionally struggle in their transition from college to the NFL, Williams has at least landed in a lucrative situation. Starting Ravens TE Dennis Pitta is still recovering from injury and is likely to start the year on injured reserve, with some people thinking he might miss all of 2015. That leaves unimposing Crockett Gillmore as the only competition for TE targets. Williams, selected in the second round of this year's draft, has a big body (6'4" 254 lbs.) and is sure to be a red zone target for Flacco throughout the season. The yards might not be there, but once you get past the likes of Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, you're really looking for red zone looks and TDs at the TE position, which is what Williams will offer. Williams may be slow out of the gates, but I think he becomes a fantasy starter by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around.
Bottom Line
This is shaping up to be your typical Ravens team; run the ball, control the clock, and rely on a fierce defense to win you games. While the depth may be lacking, I think whoever the starters are will be successful, seeing as how the Ravens have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. With a defense that should be improved now that they are healthy, the Ravens are my pick to come out of the AFC this season.
Cincinnati Bengals
Studs: Jeremy Hill, RB, AJ Green, WR
Hill was the reason why Giovanni Bernard was in my Bust category last season. Taken in the second round, Hill predictably got a lot of the between the tackles work out of the backfield, as Bernard is not built to take that kind of repetitive beating. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson eased Hill into the NFL to start the season before unleashing him in Week 9. From then on, Hill got 12+ carries all but once and registered five 100+ yard games. The coaching staff showed plenty of trust in him as Hill became the feature back, while Bernard was relegated to third and passing down situations. His successful end of 2014 has seen Hill's draft stock rise to the late first, early second round in 2015.
For the first time in his NFL career, Green battled injuries throughout the season, struggling to appear in only 13 games. Despite his nicks and bruises, Green still topped 1,000 yards receiving and saw triple digit targets, though his six TDs were the lowest of his career. Healthy to start 2015, expect Green to go back to catching 90+ balls and scoring double digit TDs. He is the best WR on this team by a mile and commands Andy Dalton's passes whenever he is on the field. Green is a safe bet to bounce back in 2015.
Bust: Hill, RB
What happens so often in fantasy football is that one awesome season by a player will cause his draft stock the following season to rise to unreasonable heights. This is what has happened to Hill. He's still a good back and certainly a viable starter, but I think the hype has gone too far. He's still only a two down back, and Bernard got a fair amount of touches in the running and passing game even after Hill established himself as a workhorse back. There are backs you can find later in the draft (Mark Ingram, Alfred Morris) that have a similar narrative of only being a two down, yet effective back. Hill is being drafted as a RB1, but I think he slips into mid-RB2 territory as the season progresses.
Sleeper: Tyler Eifert, TE
If Eifert had proven he could be an elite TE in the NFL, his stock would be through the roof. Unfortunately, he played second fiddle to Jermaine Gresham in 2013, then missed pretty much all of 2014 with an elbow injury. He has recovered well from that injury and slides into a TE position vacated by Gresham, who is now in the desert in Arizona. This is Eifert's first chance since being drafted in the first round in 2013 to be the undisputed number one TE in Cincinnati, and prove that he was worth taking in the first round. He's still a boom or bust option due to Cincy's run first mentality and Eifert's absent NFL track record, but he won't cost you anything and could finish as a top eight TE.
Bottom Line
The fantasy success of the Bengals lies with Green and Hill, while the real life success of the Bengals hinges on Andy Dalton delivering in the playoffs. This defense didn't get markedly better and should remain in the bottom half of the league, putting even more pressure on this offense to perform. Giovanni Bernard is a sneaky PPR pickup as he has been kind of forgotten in the Hill hoopla.
Cleveland Browns
Studs: None
If there is one on this roster, me and every other fantasy football analyzer would love to know where he's hiding.
Bust: Isiah Crowell, RB
It's hard to call anyone on this team a bust because none of them are going that high, but the Crow should be the first Brown off the board. Crowell was part of one of the most frustrating RB committees last season as he, Ben Tate, and Terrance West seemed to get RB starts at random. The Browns' coaching staff seemed to go with an in-game hot hand approach, so sometimes the starter wouldn't even wind up with the most yards or touches. The Browns seem set in refusing to name a true bell cow back, despite Crow being built for that kind of workload, and even drafted Duke Johnson this year just to frustrate fantasy owners even more. I would stay far away from this backfield unless someone goes down with a serious injury.
Sleeper: Andrew Hawkins, WR
You have to dig deep to find some sleepers on this roster. Hawkins made my Sleeper section last year for basically the same reasons; there is almost no competition for targets and he at least puts up reception numbers, though the yards and TDs will certainly be lacking. New addition Dwayne Bowe might be the starter on the outside, but while playing in the slot, Hawkins still wound up with more receptions, yards, and TDs than Bowe in 2014. Hawkins likely won't provide anything more than PPR WR depth and/or a bye week fill in, but he is probably the safest option in the wasteland that is the Cleveland Browns offense.
Bottom Line
This is arguably the worst team from a fantasy perspective in the NFL. Josh McCown is somehow their starter, while Johnny Manziel looked laughable as a NFL QB last season. Their backfield is once again shaping up as a frustrating committee and their WRs will struggle to finish in the top 40 for fantasy. A high draft pick is looking likely once again for this team next season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Le'Veon Bell, RB, Antonio Brown, WR
It has been pretty incredible to see the Steelers transform from a ground and pound conservative offense to a high flying, high scoring one. Big Ben has transformed from a back end QB in fantasy to a legitimate elite starter. He's been helped by offensive coordinator Todd Haley's system as well as the Steelers' front office surrounding him with elite talent. Bell is a versitile RB, Antonio Brown is one of the best WRs in the league, Heath Miller is a reliable safety blanket, and the young trio of Markus Wheaton, Martavis Bryant, and rookie Sammie Coates provide plenty of depth at the WR position. Expect lots of attempts, yards, and TDs from Big Ben this season. He has huge upside.
The only bad thing I can say about Bell is that he is suspended for the first two games of the season. When his suspension is up, regardless of how well DeAngelo Williams plays, Bell will take over his role as an every down back. Bell showed his versatility last year by tallying 1361 rushing yards, 854 receiving yards, and 11 total TDs, establishing himself as one of fantasy football's most coveted assets. With playmakers on the outside, Bell faces soft boxes when he is called upon to run and is a mismatch for most linebackers when he comes out of the backfield. From Week 3 to the end of the season, Bell will be a top three RB.
You could make the argument that Brown should be taken first overall in a PPR draft. He got a ridiculous 182 targets from Big Ben last season and caught 129 of them. He came up two yards short of 1700 receiving yards and scored 13 receiving TDs, both of which should be sustainable in 2015. Big Ben looks for him as the first option, and Brown is also the guy who usually makes plays when Ben is scrambling around, shedding potential tacklers. The Steelers have a stable of young WRs behind Brown, but I don't see them taking a significant chunk of production away from Brown. Expect Brown to finish as the top WR in PPR and possibly standard leagues as well.
Bust: None
Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown are the only three Steelers that will be taken high, while the rest of them will be late round fliers. No bust to be seen here.
Sleeper: Markus Wheaton, WR
The Steelers and the fantasy football community have been waiting for Wheaton to break out for the past two seasons. Wheaton is a burner that can play in the slot or on the outside, and is the second most versatile WR on the Steelers behind Brown. Martavis Bryant is getting a lot of hype this year because he finished with 29 more fantasy points than Wheaton, but keep in mind that Bryant's point total was boosted by his eight TDs, most of which were of the long variety. Also of note is that Bryant had a measly 26 receptions on 49 targets. Bryant is probably their best deep threat, but I would prefer Wheaton, who is the better overall player. Big Ben topped 600 attempts last season and all things point to him throwing for a similar amount of attempts. Wheaton will only cost you a late round pick and should easily outperform his low draft position.
Bottom Line
This Steeler team will have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. Bell should rack up the points once his suspension is up, and newly acquired RB DeAngelo Williams should find some sort of success in the first two games while Bell is sidelined. Brown is practically unstoppable and one of these young WRs, hopefully Wheaton, is bound to break out with all the attempts Big Ben will throw this year. The Steelers will be a legitimate contender for the AFC Title.
Matty O
Studs: Justin Forsett, RB, Steve Smith, WR, Defense/Special Teams
Forsett, already on his fourth NFL team prior to turning 30, paid dividends last year as he took advantage of off field (Ray Rice) and on field (Bernard Pierce) RB problems to become the Ravens' number one RB. From Week 6 to the end of the season, he only had one game where he saw single digit carries, and he had four games of 20+ carries. While some experts think this was more of an anomaly than a sign of things to come, I still think he will excel in 2015. With Ray Rice officially out of the picture, his only competition is Lorenzo Taliaferro and rookie Buck Allen. The Ravens also added Mark Trestman as their offensive coordinator, who gave Matt Forte 266 carries and 130 targets in the passing game last season. Forsett was already a capable pass catcher (44 receptions in 2014) and should flirt with the 70-90 range with Trestman calling the shots. I'm high on Forsett this season, and think he finishes as a top 10 PPR back, and top 20 standard league back.
Even at age 36, I'm still listing Smith as a Stud for a few reasons. For starters, he had a rather productive year in 2014, topping 1,000 yards, while hauling in 79 receptions and six TDs. He did struggle down the stretch, but so did the Ravens' passing game as a whole. Similar to Forsett, he has little to no competition for targets behind him as Torrey Smith is now in San Francisco and rookie Breshad Perriman has been struggling with injuries all of training camp. He and Joe Flacco have had a year to establish chemistry together, and I expect that to continue in 2015. Smith already announced that 2015 will be his last season and I have no doubt that he will be motivated to make it a memorable one. A motivated Steve Smith is a scary thing.
This D/ST unit tied for sixth among fantasy defenses last season, never had a zero or negative fantasy point game, and did all this despite scoring only three D/ST TDs. Their run defense was once again stout, but they struggled to stop the pass, finishing in the bottom half of the league in pass defense. The good news is their pass defense woes of 2014 were likely to due to injuries piling up, allowing some of the guys lower on the depth chart to get some playing time and experience. They are healthier to start the year and should improve upon their 23rd ranked pass defense. This will always be one of the most feared defenses in the NFL, and is one of the safer defenses to pick for fantasy purposes.
Bust: None
I suppose Perriman could go here, but I'd have to wait until he gets healthy. His draft stock is slowly falling, even though he should make some noise once he actually gets on the field. Everyone else in the Stud category seems pretty safe where they are ranked.
Sleeper: Maxx Williams, TE
Although rookie TEs traditionally struggle in their transition from college to the NFL, Williams has at least landed in a lucrative situation. Starting Ravens TE Dennis Pitta is still recovering from injury and is likely to start the year on injured reserve, with some people thinking he might miss all of 2015. That leaves unimposing Crockett Gillmore as the only competition for TE targets. Williams, selected in the second round of this year's draft, has a big body (6'4" 254 lbs.) and is sure to be a red zone target for Flacco throughout the season. The yards might not be there, but once you get past the likes of Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, you're really looking for red zone looks and TDs at the TE position, which is what Williams will offer. Williams may be slow out of the gates, but I think he becomes a fantasy starter by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around.
Bottom Line
This is shaping up to be your typical Ravens team; run the ball, control the clock, and rely on a fierce defense to win you games. While the depth may be lacking, I think whoever the starters are will be successful, seeing as how the Ravens have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. With a defense that should be improved now that they are healthy, the Ravens are my pick to come out of the AFC this season.
Cincinnati Bengals
Studs: Jeremy Hill, RB, AJ Green, WR
Hill was the reason why Giovanni Bernard was in my Bust category last season. Taken in the second round, Hill predictably got a lot of the between the tackles work out of the backfield, as Bernard is not built to take that kind of repetitive beating. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson eased Hill into the NFL to start the season before unleashing him in Week 9. From then on, Hill got 12+ carries all but once and registered five 100+ yard games. The coaching staff showed plenty of trust in him as Hill became the feature back, while Bernard was relegated to third and passing down situations. His successful end of 2014 has seen Hill's draft stock rise to the late first, early second round in 2015.
For the first time in his NFL career, Green battled injuries throughout the season, struggling to appear in only 13 games. Despite his nicks and bruises, Green still topped 1,000 yards receiving and saw triple digit targets, though his six TDs were the lowest of his career. Healthy to start 2015, expect Green to go back to catching 90+ balls and scoring double digit TDs. He is the best WR on this team by a mile and commands Andy Dalton's passes whenever he is on the field. Green is a safe bet to bounce back in 2015.
Bust: Hill, RB
What happens so often in fantasy football is that one awesome season by a player will cause his draft stock the following season to rise to unreasonable heights. This is what has happened to Hill. He's still a good back and certainly a viable starter, but I think the hype has gone too far. He's still only a two down back, and Bernard got a fair amount of touches in the running and passing game even after Hill established himself as a workhorse back. There are backs you can find later in the draft (Mark Ingram, Alfred Morris) that have a similar narrative of only being a two down, yet effective back. Hill is being drafted as a RB1, but I think he slips into mid-RB2 territory as the season progresses.
Sleeper: Tyler Eifert, TE
If Eifert had proven he could be an elite TE in the NFL, his stock would be through the roof. Unfortunately, he played second fiddle to Jermaine Gresham in 2013, then missed pretty much all of 2014 with an elbow injury. He has recovered well from that injury and slides into a TE position vacated by Gresham, who is now in the desert in Arizona. This is Eifert's first chance since being drafted in the first round in 2013 to be the undisputed number one TE in Cincinnati, and prove that he was worth taking in the first round. He's still a boom or bust option due to Cincy's run first mentality and Eifert's absent NFL track record, but he won't cost you anything and could finish as a top eight TE.
Bottom Line
The fantasy success of the Bengals lies with Green and Hill, while the real life success of the Bengals hinges on Andy Dalton delivering in the playoffs. This defense didn't get markedly better and should remain in the bottom half of the league, putting even more pressure on this offense to perform. Giovanni Bernard is a sneaky PPR pickup as he has been kind of forgotten in the Hill hoopla.
Cleveland Browns
Studs: None
If there is one on this roster, me and every other fantasy football analyzer would love to know where he's hiding.
Bust: Isiah Crowell, RB
It's hard to call anyone on this team a bust because none of them are going that high, but the Crow should be the first Brown off the board. Crowell was part of one of the most frustrating RB committees last season as he, Ben Tate, and Terrance West seemed to get RB starts at random. The Browns' coaching staff seemed to go with an in-game hot hand approach, so sometimes the starter wouldn't even wind up with the most yards or touches. The Browns seem set in refusing to name a true bell cow back, despite Crow being built for that kind of workload, and even drafted Duke Johnson this year just to frustrate fantasy owners even more. I would stay far away from this backfield unless someone goes down with a serious injury.
Sleeper: Andrew Hawkins, WR
You have to dig deep to find some sleepers on this roster. Hawkins made my Sleeper section last year for basically the same reasons; there is almost no competition for targets and he at least puts up reception numbers, though the yards and TDs will certainly be lacking. New addition Dwayne Bowe might be the starter on the outside, but while playing in the slot, Hawkins still wound up with more receptions, yards, and TDs than Bowe in 2014. Hawkins likely won't provide anything more than PPR WR depth and/or a bye week fill in, but he is probably the safest option in the wasteland that is the Cleveland Browns offense.
Bottom Line
This is arguably the worst team from a fantasy perspective in the NFL. Josh McCown is somehow their starter, while Johnny Manziel looked laughable as a NFL QB last season. Their backfield is once again shaping up as a frustrating committee and their WRs will struggle to finish in the top 40 for fantasy. A high draft pick is looking likely once again for this team next season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Le'Veon Bell, RB, Antonio Brown, WR
It has been pretty incredible to see the Steelers transform from a ground and pound conservative offense to a high flying, high scoring one. Big Ben has transformed from a back end QB in fantasy to a legitimate elite starter. He's been helped by offensive coordinator Todd Haley's system as well as the Steelers' front office surrounding him with elite talent. Bell is a versitile RB, Antonio Brown is one of the best WRs in the league, Heath Miller is a reliable safety blanket, and the young trio of Markus Wheaton, Martavis Bryant, and rookie Sammie Coates provide plenty of depth at the WR position. Expect lots of attempts, yards, and TDs from Big Ben this season. He has huge upside.
The only bad thing I can say about Bell is that he is suspended for the first two games of the season. When his suspension is up, regardless of how well DeAngelo Williams plays, Bell will take over his role as an every down back. Bell showed his versatility last year by tallying 1361 rushing yards, 854 receiving yards, and 11 total TDs, establishing himself as one of fantasy football's most coveted assets. With playmakers on the outside, Bell faces soft boxes when he is called upon to run and is a mismatch for most linebackers when he comes out of the backfield. From Week 3 to the end of the season, Bell will be a top three RB.
You could make the argument that Brown should be taken first overall in a PPR draft. He got a ridiculous 182 targets from Big Ben last season and caught 129 of them. He came up two yards short of 1700 receiving yards and scored 13 receiving TDs, both of which should be sustainable in 2015. Big Ben looks for him as the first option, and Brown is also the guy who usually makes plays when Ben is scrambling around, shedding potential tacklers. The Steelers have a stable of young WRs behind Brown, but I don't see them taking a significant chunk of production away from Brown. Expect Brown to finish as the top WR in PPR and possibly standard leagues as well.
Bust: None
Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown are the only three Steelers that will be taken high, while the rest of them will be late round fliers. No bust to be seen here.
Sleeper: Markus Wheaton, WR
The Steelers and the fantasy football community have been waiting for Wheaton to break out for the past two seasons. Wheaton is a burner that can play in the slot or on the outside, and is the second most versatile WR on the Steelers behind Brown. Martavis Bryant is getting a lot of hype this year because he finished with 29 more fantasy points than Wheaton, but keep in mind that Bryant's point total was boosted by his eight TDs, most of which were of the long variety. Also of note is that Bryant had a measly 26 receptions on 49 targets. Bryant is probably their best deep threat, but I would prefer Wheaton, who is the better overall player. Big Ben topped 600 attempts last season and all things point to him throwing for a similar amount of attempts. Wheaton will only cost you a late round pick and should easily outperform his low draft position.
Bottom Line
This Steeler team will have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. Bell should rack up the points once his suspension is up, and newly acquired RB DeAngelo Williams should find some sort of success in the first two games while Bell is sidelined. Brown is practically unstoppable and one of these young WRs, hopefully Wheaton, is bound to break out with all the attempts Big Ben will throw this year. The Steelers will be a legitimate contender for the AFC Title.
Matty O
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