Atlanta Falcons
Studs: Matt Ryan, QB, Julio Jones, WR
Ryan will never amaze in fantasy (never finished higher than the 7th best QB), but he is consistently in the top 10 and usually has a draft position that is reasonable. Ryan has one of the best wide receiver weapons in the game in Julio Jones, along with aging, but still capable, Roddy White. The Falcons also drafted Tevin Coleman to go along with Devonta Freeman to try and create a more balanced offense so that Ryan doesn't have to single handedly save the Falcons every game. New head coach Dan Quinn should make this defense somewhat better, putting Ryan and this offense in better situations. Again, he won't put up Rodgers or Luck type numbers, but he will rarely sink your fantasy team.
Jones is my pick to finish as the number one overall fantasy WR. Jones is in a contract year and will be wanting to prove that he deserves more than the lucrative contracts given to Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas this offseason. Jones caught 104 passes last season (3rd among WRs), but only reeled in six TDs (tied for 23rd among WRs). I expect those TD numbers to go up as he has been the best red zone target for the Falcons since Tony Gonzalez retired. He's an athletic freak that should become a target vacuum as Roddy White's age and declining health start to rear its ugly head. Expect big things from Julio this season.
Bust: Devonta Freeman, RB
Freeman's status was looking up prior to the draft as Steven Jackson finally left Atlanta, leaving Freeman to take over the starting role. Then came the NFL Draft when the Falcons selected Tevin Coleman out of Indiana with the 73rd overall pick. Coleman, a speedster who finished last season with 2,036 rushing yards, caused Freeman's value to drop and set up the makings of a committee, with perhaps Antone Smith involved as well. Freeman did little to impress when relieving Jackson last season, and should not be viewed as someone that has a firm grip on the starting job. I wouldn't be surprised if the Falcons use a rotation at the start of the season, before settling on Coleman as their workhorse back.
Sleeper: Tevin Coleman, RB
See Above. Coleman's stock is slowly rising, however, so make sure you still don't reach for him. Even if he does get starting duties, Atlanta's line is still one of the shakier in the league and the Falcons have never been shy about throwing the ball around. Coleman is probably only a low end RB2.
Bottom Line
The Ryan to Jones connection will be one to watch this season, particularly for owners who snag those two players. The RB situation should work itself out, hopefully before the start of the regular season. Targets are there for the likes of Roddy White and their group of TEs, but inconsistency will make all of them non-startable. Dan Quinn should get this defense out of the cellar, but not enough to be fantasy relevant.
Carolina Panthers
Studs: Greg Olsen, TE
I was already high on Olsen, but when Kelvin Benjamin went down with a season ending injury, I was through the roof. Some might think that all this will do is draw more defensive attention towards Olsen. That may be true. Remember, however, that people thought the same thing last season because the only other option was a rookie WR (Benjamin). Subsequently, Olsen went out and had his best year as a pro, finishing with career highs in targets, receptions, and yards. Olsen is such a crisp route runner and has great body positioning, that extra defensive attention is usually not an issue. Benjamin's injury will certainly mean more targets Olsen's way and I think he is productive with said targets. He is comfortably the number three overall TE, and could creep up to number two if the Seahawks underutilize Jimmy Graham.
Bust: Cam Newton, QB
After the Benjamin injury, it is hard to call Newton a bust because his draft stock will likely fall as well. Consider this the "Player Who Will Do Bad" section instead of the Bust section. While Newton still has Olsen, he now has to throw to WRs Devin Funchess (rookie), Jerricho Cotchery, and Domenik Hixon, making this WR corps one of the worst in the league. Funchess has the body to be a good WR, but never impressed me at Michigan and won't come close to the production they lost with Benjamin. Newton also has to play with an oft injured RB (Jonathan Stewart), backed up by a rookie RB (Cameron Artis-Payne). Playing behind a middle of the road offensive line, 2015 looks like a rough year for Cam.
Sleeper: Cameron Artis-Payne, RB
He may be a rookie, but CAP has a few things going for him. The starter in this backfield is Jonathan Stewart who looked good towards the end of last season, but also hasn't played a full 16 games since 2011. CAP also put up great numbers in college last season, rushing for 1608 yards and 13 TDs at Auburn. While playing at Auburn, he became comfortable with the zone read kind of plays that Newton likes to run, particularly down in the red zone. It will probably take a Stewart injury for CAP to have standalone value, but a Stewart injury is a distinct possibility. You must handcuff Stewart with CAP if you draft Stewart.
Bottom Line
Somehow winning the division with a 7-8-1 record in 2014, I see the Panthers taking a turn for the worse this season. Greg Hardy's absence was obvious with this defense as it was not nearly as dominant as it had been the year prior. Benjamin's injury really sinks this passing game as Olsen should be the only one that finds any sort of success. It will take a Superman-type effort from Cam Newton, and a bit of luck, if the Panthers are to win the division again this season.
New Orleans Saints
Studs: Drew Brees, QB, Mark Ingram, RB, Brandin Cooks (PPR), WR
While Brees may have had a down 2014 and lost Jimmy Graham in the offseason, there is still reason for optimism when drafting this guy. Brees finished sixth in fantasy scoring, despite having his first sub-5,000 yard season since 2010 and his lowest TD total since 2010. The good news is that he still led all QBs in attempts by 31 and has more than enough weapons around him to make up for the loss of Graham. WR Brandin Cooks, unavailable from Week 12 to the end of the season last year, returns healthy to start 2015. Old reliable Marques Colston returns, who has Brees' trust. They even brought in CJ Spiller and undrafted rookie Brandon Coleman to help out in the pass game. The Saints acquired Pro Bowler Max Unger in the Graham trade to protect Brees in 2015, after he was constantly under fire last season. Brees doesn't have the hype surrounding him as in past years, but I think he finishes as a top five QB.
After years of keeping Ingram in a committee of RBs, the Saints finally allowed Ingram to shoulder the load, giving him 226 carries in 13 games last season. While he wasn't able to top 1,000 yards, he did have four 100+ yard games and found the end zone nine times. I think the Saints finally realized they needed a more balanced attack and knew that Ingram was the guy to carry the load. The Saints did bring in CJ Spiller this year, but Spiller will be for the passing downs and will not get many, if any, red zone carries. Spiller is an intriguing PPR play, but Ingram should be the more consistent and reliable back. Max Unger's presence will also help the run game.
Cooks should only be considered a Stud in PPR leagues because of the crazy amount of targets he got as a rookie last season. In only ten games played, Cooks received 70 targets playing alongside the likes of Graham, Colston, and Pierre Thomas. He was inconsistent at times, but lit up the Falcons, Packers, and 49ers. With Graham's targets now in Seattle and Marques Colston's stats declining since 2012, expect Cooks to become the focal point of this passing game. Standard league owners may want to beware, as he never topped 94 yards in any game last season, but PPR owners should feel safe snagging Cooks.
Bust: Ingram, RB
It's not so much that Ingram will have a poor season, it's that he won't live up to his draft position. Guys like Alfred Morris and Chris Ivory are going after Ingram, despite also being two down thumping backs that will likely rely on TDs and a high number of carries to produce good fantasy numbers. I also don't think this Saints defense got any better, putting them in positions where they have to play catch up. In those scenarios, Spiller will see more time than Ingram. The numbers for Ingram might be decent, but I think you can get similar production later in the draft.
Sleeper: Marques Colston, WR
The more I read other people's opinions, the more I dislike this sleeper pick, but Colston has always been one of my favorite players, so I'm going to give him one last shot to be fantasy relevant. Targets in the passing game are up for grabs with Graham, Thomas, and Kenny Stills no longer part of the team. Regardless of the amount of targets Cooks got last season, Colston is still the WR that Brees trusts the most as the two of them have been playing with the Saints since Colston's rookie year in 2006. Although his numbers have dropped, Colston has remained healthy so he'll at least have a chance to capitalize on the available targets. His numbers aren't what they used to be, but I think he could have one last resurgence in 2015. He'll be a low-risk, medium-reward player.
Bottom Line
If this defense can turn around, the Saints could be the comeback story of the year. They lost their star TE, but still have one of the best QBs in the game, along with a deep and dynamic array of passing weapons. The balanced offensive attack sounds nice in theory, but I think they still air it out more than the average NFL team. I expect the Saints and the Falcons to be the two teams that battle it out for the NFC South crown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Studs: Mike Evans, WR
I wasn't too high on Evans last year, simply because he was an unproven rookie playing with the hilarious duo of Mike Glennon and Josh McCown at QB. While the QB play did lead to inconsistency at times, Evans quickly became a TD machine, as he racked up 12 in his rookie season. He had a three game stretch from Weeks 9-11 where he gained over 124 yards in each of those three games, including a 209 yarder in Washington. Evans does not come without risk, however. Towards the end of the season, he became way too TD dependent as he registered five TDs from Weeks 12-17, but never topped 54 yards. With those low yardage totals, even if he gets a TD, it's still only an average fantasy day. I think his current draft position is reasonable, but it would be foolish to reach for him.
Bust: All Bucs RBs
First it was Doug Martin. Then Bobby Rainey. Then Charles Sims. Then back to Martin. The Bucs' carousel of backs was dizzying last season and I think it continues into 2015. Lovie Smith has already said that he expects Martin to be the bell cow back to start the season, but I'll believe that when I see it. No matter who gets the carries, they will still be running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league as the Bucs finished 4th to last in rushing yards in 2014, despite starting their "best" back every week. One or two of them may have a good game here or there, but it will likely come out of nowhere while they are still on the waiver wire. I would avoid this group, even if one is named the number one back.
Sleeper: Vincent Jackson, WR
A few years ago, calling Jackson a sleeper when he was with Phillip Rivers in San Diego, would have been ludicrous. Flash forward to 2015, and his draft stock has absolutely tumbled because he plays for the Bucs and was overshadowed by the rookie Evans last season. Even with Evans' offensive explosion, Jackson still managed to go over 1,000 yards for the fourth straight season, and even garnered more targets and receptions than Evans. The thing that killed Jackson's fantasy value was the two receiving TDs. I would chalk that up to poor QB play and view it as an outlier, as Jackson had TD totals of 8 and 7 in his previous two years in Tampa. Jackson, once an injury concern, has yet to miss a game in a Bucs' uniform and might get less coverage this season as teams focus on Evans. Having a rookie as your QB will lead to inconsistencies, but I think Jackson will still be able to be productive. I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson actually outperforms Evans this year if Jackson's TDs return to normal and Evans' TDs regress.
Bottom Line
Jameis Winston actually has a fair bit of talent around him, but it will be up to him to make smart decisions and keep drives alive. The offensive line is a real question mark, as is the pass catching depth behind Jackson and Evans. While Lovie Smith might be a defensive coach, this defensive unit still has a couple more years until it can be considered solid. The Bucs look headed towards another single digit draft pick in the 2016 draft.
Matty O
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