Baltimore Ravens
Studs: Justin Forsett, RB, Steve Smith, WR, Defense/Special Teams
Forsett, already on his fourth NFL team prior to turning 30, paid dividends last year as he took advantage of off field (Ray Rice) and on field (Bernard Pierce) RB problems to become the Ravens' number one RB. From Week 6 to the end of the season, he only had one game where he saw single digit carries, and he had four games of 20+ carries. While some experts think this was more of an anomaly than a sign of things to come, I still think he will excel in 2015. With Ray Rice officially out of the picture, his only competition is Lorenzo Taliaferro and rookie Buck Allen. The Ravens also added Mark Trestman as their offensive coordinator, who gave Matt Forte 266 carries and 130 targets in the passing game last season. Forsett was already a capable pass catcher (44 receptions in 2014) and should flirt with the 70-90 range with Trestman calling the shots. I'm high on Forsett this season, and think he finishes as a top 10 PPR back, and top 20 standard league back.
Even at age 36, I'm still listing Smith as a Stud for a few reasons. For starters, he had a rather productive year in 2014, topping 1,000 yards, while hauling in 79 receptions and six TDs. He did struggle down the stretch, but so did the Ravens' passing game as a whole. Similar to Forsett, he has little to no competition for targets behind him as Torrey Smith is now in San Francisco and rookie Breshad Perriman has been struggling with injuries all of training camp. He and Joe Flacco have had a year to establish chemistry together, and I expect that to continue in 2015. Smith already announced that 2015 will be his last season and I have no doubt that he will be motivated to make it a memorable one. A motivated Steve Smith is a scary thing.
This D/ST unit tied for sixth among fantasy defenses last season, never had a zero or negative fantasy point game, and did all this despite scoring only three D/ST TDs. Their run defense was once again stout, but they struggled to stop the pass, finishing in the bottom half of the league in pass defense. The good news is their pass defense woes of 2014 were likely to due to injuries piling up, allowing some of the guys lower on the depth chart to get some playing time and experience. They are healthier to start the year and should improve upon their 23rd ranked pass defense. This will always be one of the most feared defenses in the NFL, and is one of the safer defenses to pick for fantasy purposes.
Bust: None
I suppose Perriman could go here, but I'd have to wait until he gets healthy. His draft stock is slowly falling, even though he should make some noise once he actually gets on the field. Everyone else in the Stud category seems pretty safe where they are ranked.
Sleeper: Maxx Williams, TE
Although rookie TEs traditionally struggle in their transition from college to the NFL, Williams has at least landed in a lucrative situation. Starting Ravens TE Dennis Pitta is still recovering from injury and is likely to start the year on injured reserve, with some people thinking he might miss all of 2015. That leaves unimposing Crockett Gillmore as the only competition for TE targets. Williams, selected in the second round of this year's draft, has a big body (6'4" 254 lbs.) and is sure to be a red zone target for Flacco throughout the season. The yards might not be there, but once you get past the likes of Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, you're really looking for red zone looks and TDs at the TE position, which is what Williams will offer. Williams may be slow out of the gates, but I think he becomes a fantasy starter by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around.
Bottom Line
This is shaping up to be your typical Ravens team; run the ball, control the clock, and rely on a fierce defense to win you games. While the depth may be lacking, I think whoever the starters are will be successful, seeing as how the Ravens have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. With a defense that should be improved now that they are healthy, the Ravens are my pick to come out of the AFC this season.
Cincinnati Bengals
Studs: Jeremy Hill, RB, AJ Green, WR
Hill was the reason why Giovanni Bernard was in my Bust category last season. Taken in the second round, Hill predictably got a lot of the between the tackles work out of the backfield, as Bernard is not built to take that kind of repetitive beating. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson eased Hill into the NFL to start the season before unleashing him in Week 9. From then on, Hill got 12+ carries all but once and registered five 100+ yard games. The coaching staff showed plenty of trust in him as Hill became the feature back, while Bernard was relegated to third and passing down situations. His successful end of 2014 has seen Hill's draft stock rise to the late first, early second round in 2015.
For the first time in his NFL career, Green battled injuries throughout the season, struggling to appear in only 13 games. Despite his nicks and bruises, Green still topped 1,000 yards receiving and saw triple digit targets, though his six TDs were the lowest of his career. Healthy to start 2015, expect Green to go back to catching 90+ balls and scoring double digit TDs. He is the best WR on this team by a mile and commands Andy Dalton's passes whenever he is on the field. Green is a safe bet to bounce back in 2015.
Bust: Hill, RB
What happens so often in fantasy football is that one awesome season by a player will cause his draft stock the following season to rise to unreasonable heights. This is what has happened to Hill. He's still a good back and certainly a viable starter, but I think the hype has gone too far. He's still only a two down back, and Bernard got a fair amount of touches in the running and passing game even after Hill established himself as a workhorse back. There are backs you can find later in the draft (Mark Ingram, Alfred Morris) that have a similar narrative of only being a two down, yet effective back. Hill is being drafted as a RB1, but I think he slips into mid-RB2 territory as the season progresses.
Sleeper: Tyler Eifert, TE
If Eifert had proven he could be an elite TE in the NFL, his stock would be through the roof. Unfortunately, he played second fiddle to Jermaine Gresham in 2013, then missed pretty much all of 2014 with an elbow injury. He has recovered well from that injury and slides into a TE position vacated by Gresham, who is now in the desert in Arizona. This is Eifert's first chance since being drafted in the first round in 2013 to be the undisputed number one TE in Cincinnati, and prove that he was worth taking in the first round. He's still a boom or bust option due to Cincy's run first mentality and Eifert's absent NFL track record, but he won't cost you anything and could finish as a top eight TE.
Bottom Line
The fantasy success of the Bengals lies with Green and Hill, while the real life success of the Bengals hinges on Andy Dalton delivering in the playoffs. This defense didn't get markedly better and should remain in the bottom half of the league, putting even more pressure on this offense to perform. Giovanni Bernard is a sneaky PPR pickup as he has been kind of forgotten in the Hill hoopla.
Cleveland Browns
Studs: None
If there is one on this roster, me and every other fantasy football analyzer would love to know where he's hiding.
Bust: Isiah Crowell, RB
It's hard to call anyone on this team a bust because none of them are going that high, but the Crow should be the first Brown off the board. Crowell was part of one of the most frustrating RB committees last season as he, Ben Tate, and Terrance West seemed to get RB starts at random. The Browns' coaching staff seemed to go with an in-game hot hand approach, so sometimes the starter wouldn't even wind up with the most yards or touches. The Browns seem set in refusing to name a true bell cow back, despite Crow being built for that kind of workload, and even drafted Duke Johnson this year just to frustrate fantasy owners even more. I would stay far away from this backfield unless someone goes down with a serious injury.
Sleeper: Andrew Hawkins, WR
You have to dig deep to find some sleepers on this roster. Hawkins made my Sleeper section last year for basically the same reasons; there is almost no competition for targets and he at least puts up reception numbers, though the yards and TDs will certainly be lacking. New addition Dwayne Bowe might be the starter on the outside, but while playing in the slot, Hawkins still wound up with more receptions, yards, and TDs than Bowe in 2014. Hawkins likely won't provide anything more than PPR WR depth and/or a bye week fill in, but he is probably the safest option in the wasteland that is the Cleveland Browns offense.
Bottom Line
This is arguably the worst team from a fantasy perspective in the NFL. Josh McCown is somehow their starter, while Johnny Manziel looked laughable as a NFL QB last season. Their backfield is once again shaping up as a frustrating committee and their WRs will struggle to finish in the top 40 for fantasy. A high draft pick is looking likely once again for this team next season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Le'Veon Bell, RB, Antonio Brown, WR
It has been pretty incredible to see the Steelers transform from a ground and pound conservative offense to a high flying, high scoring one. Big Ben has transformed from a back end QB in fantasy to a legitimate elite starter. He's been helped by offensive coordinator Todd Haley's system as well as the Steelers' front office surrounding him with elite talent. Bell is a versitile RB, Antonio Brown is one of the best WRs in the league, Heath Miller is a reliable safety blanket, and the young trio of Markus Wheaton, Martavis Bryant, and rookie Sammie Coates provide plenty of depth at the WR position. Expect lots of attempts, yards, and TDs from Big Ben this season. He has huge upside.
The only bad thing I can say about Bell is that he is suspended for the first two games of the season. When his suspension is up, regardless of how well DeAngelo Williams plays, Bell will take over his role as an every down back. Bell showed his versatility last year by tallying 1361 rushing yards, 854 receiving yards, and 11 total TDs, establishing himself as one of fantasy football's most coveted assets. With playmakers on the outside, Bell faces soft boxes when he is called upon to run and is a mismatch for most linebackers when he comes out of the backfield. From Week 3 to the end of the season, Bell will be a top three RB.
You could make the argument that Brown should be taken first overall in a PPR draft. He got a ridiculous 182 targets from Big Ben last season and caught 129 of them. He came up two yards short of 1700 receiving yards and scored 13 receiving TDs, both of which should be sustainable in 2015. Big Ben looks for him as the first option, and Brown is also the guy who usually makes plays when Ben is scrambling around, shedding potential tacklers. The Steelers have a stable of young WRs behind Brown, but I don't see them taking a significant chunk of production away from Brown. Expect Brown to finish as the top WR in PPR and possibly standard leagues as well.
Bust: None
Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown are the only three Steelers that will be taken high, while the rest of them will be late round fliers. No bust to be seen here.
Sleeper: Markus Wheaton, WR
The Steelers and the fantasy football community have been waiting for Wheaton to break out for the past two seasons. Wheaton is a burner that can play in the slot or on the outside, and is the second most versatile WR on the Steelers behind Brown. Martavis Bryant is getting a lot of hype this year because he finished with 29 more fantasy points than Wheaton, but keep in mind that Bryant's point total was boosted by his eight TDs, most of which were of the long variety. Also of note is that Bryant had a measly 26 receptions on 49 targets. Bryant is probably their best deep threat, but I would prefer Wheaton, who is the better overall player. Big Ben topped 600 attempts last season and all things point to him throwing for a similar amount of attempts. Wheaton will only cost you a late round pick and should easily outperform his low draft position.
Bottom Line
This Steeler team will have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. Bell should rack up the points once his suspension is up, and newly acquired RB DeAngelo Williams should find some sort of success in the first two games while Bell is sidelined. Brown is practically unstoppable and one of these young WRs, hopefully Wheaton, is bound to break out with all the attempts Big Ben will throw this year. The Steelers will be a legitimate contender for the AFC Title.
Matty O
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