Houston Texans
Studs: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Defense/Special Teams
Hopkins is now in the same situation that Andre Johnson was for years and years, as he is now the only reliable option in the passing game, but has to catch balls from average to below average QBs. After a decent, but inconsistent rookie season in 2013, Hopkins became a solid fantasy starter in 2014 by putting up 1,210 yards and six TDs. He even outperformed fellow teammate Andre Johnson in yards and TDs. Johnson is now in Indy and his 147 targets in 2014 are up for grabs. Hopkins received 127 targets on his own last season with Johnson around, so expect Hopkins' target number to reach around 150. Hopkins is fast, strong, and can make plays on poorly thrown balls. From a fantasy perspective, owners should hope that Ryan Mallet wins the starting QB job as he has the better arm, but I think Hopkins will be successful regardless of who is under center.
Any discussions regarding this defensive unit begin and end with JJ Watt. Watt was a nominee for NFL MVP last season and is certainly the best defensive player in the NFL. He pressures QBs, gets sacks, knocks down balls, forces turnovers, and scores TDs. The Texans also added Vince Wilfork to go along with Watt on the defensive line, and Jadeveon Clowney appears as though he might return sometime this season, though his usage is unknown. Houston also decided to beef up their defense through the draft as they spent their first round pick on CB Kevin Johnson and their second round pick on LB Benardrick McKinney. This unit finished 4th in fantasy D/ST scoring last season and is locked in as a top 10 unit, particularly playing in the same division as a first and second year QB (they even had 22 combined fantasy points in two games against Andrew Luck last year).
Bust: Alfred Blue, RB
Blue was one of the more valuable handcuffs last season as Arian Foster has consistently struggled with injuries. The problem is that even though Blue got the first crack at carries when Foster went down, Blue did not excel when given his chances. In 2014, Foster missed Weeks 3, 11, and 12. In those three games, Blue totaled zero TDs and, although he had a 156 yard game, he needed 36 carries to get those yards. Blue will probably be the first healthy Texans' RB off the board, but I'm not so sure he is the one to own.
Sleeper: Chris Polk, RB
The Texans' backfield is full of unproven backs behind Foster, so why not take the guy who at least finds the end zone? While playing behind LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles in Philadelphia, Polk still managed to steal goal line looks, particularly towards the end of 2014. From Week 9 to the end of the season, Polk scored four rushing TDs on only 43 carries. McCoy, in that same time period, scored four rushing TDs on 177 carries. Polk's prowess between the 20s is unknown as he has only gotten 57 carries in two seasons with the Eagles, but Chip Kelly clearly trusted him in the red zone even with McCoy there. Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes are no LeSean McCoy so there's a good chance Polk finds the end zone multiple times this season. He might even continue to see goal line looks when/if Arian Foster is healthy. He'll probably go undrafted, but could rack up the most fantasy points while Foster is injured.
Bottom Line
If this team had a decent QB, they would be considered one of the more dangerous teams in the league. They have a solid offensive line, decent WR depth with the drafting of Jaelen Strong and signing Cecil Shorts, and one of the best defenses in the league. We already know what Brian Hoyer can bring to the table, but maybe Ryan Mallet finally lives up to expectations and becomes a good QB. If so, this is a team that could make the loaded Indianapolis Colts nervous as they battle for the AFC South crown.
Indianapolis Colts
Studs: Andrew Luck, QB, TY Hilton, WR, Andre Johnson, WR, Frank Gore, RB, Adam Vinatieri, K
Luck is quite clearly one of the two best fantasy QBs for 2015, and you could argue that he should be taken ahead of Aaron Rodgers. The Colts' offense was already a juggernaut in 2014, so of course they go out and get Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, and draft WR Phillip Dorsett in the first round. Luck will have no shortage of weapons to throw to, and should have plenty of opportunities to get fantasy points after attempting 616 passes last season. If he can keep his interceptions down, he has a real shot to be the overall fantasy MVP.
Hilton is one of the few non-new Colts to be featured in this offense. Once Reggie Wayne started to fade last season, Hilton took over and proved that he could be the next great Colt WR, following in Marvin Harrison and Wayne's footsteps. Hilton doesn't possess the size of Harrison or Wayne, but he does have wheels that neither of them had. Hilton received 130 targets in 2014, despite missing the final two games of the regular season. His inconsistency will sometimes frustrate you, though he has gotten better about stringing together solid performances. His red zone looks will be limited with Dwayne Allen and Johnson around, but he should be fine in regards to receptions and deep balls. Hilton is a safe WR2, possible WR1.
#FreeAndre. It actually looked like Johnson was going to another team last year, as he tried to force the Texans to trade him prior to the 2014 season, as he did not want to be part of another rebuilding project at the end of his career. Instead, the Texans stood firm and Johnson played out the 2014 season with more terrible QB play. Johnson still managed 85 receptions, but failed to top 1,000 yards and only hauled in three TDs. Now on a Super Bowl contending team with an elite QB, Johnson should find new fantasy life in Indy. While he may have lost some of his speed, his size still makes him a dangerous red zone threat and he should get plenty of work in between the 20s as well. I doubt he sees the 147 targets he saw last season, but the yards and certainly the TDs should go up.
While Frank Gore wasn't in as bad of a situation as Johnson, his new situation with the Colts is much better than the one in San Francisco. Gore would constantly be facing packed boxes in San Francisco as it was no secret the Niners liked to pound the ball, and Colin Kaepernick is a much poorer thrower of the football than Andrew Luck. The only downside I see here is that Gore did have a much better offensive line in San Fran, though I think facing defenses that have to worry about Luck's passes should offset that to some degree. Like Johnson, Gore is getting up there in age (32), but has played in all 16 games the last four seasons. His age and Dan Herron's pass catching success in 2014 might cause Gore to only be a two down player, but I still think he surpasses 1,000 yards and is a good bet for double digit TDs.
Yes, I put a kicker in the Stud category, but for good reason. In 2014, Vinatieri only missed one kick the entire season (30/31 on FG, 50/50 on PAT) in Week 17. He plays his home games in a dome and is in the same division as the Texans (retractable roof), Jaguars (Jacksonville weather), and the Titans (Tennessee weather). The Colts also get to go to Atlanta (dome) and sunny Miami late in the year. The Colt offense has the potential to be even better this season, giving Vinatieri even more chances to put up points. He's locked in as a top 3 kicker.
Bust: None
I see this offense being similar to the Denver Broncos in 2013, being able to support three WRs, a TE, and feature RB. This should be a near unstoppable force in 2015.
Sleeper: Dwayne Allen, TE
Allen is given a low draft position because he struggles to stay healthy, plays on a team with another regularly used TE in Coby Fleener, and doesn't rack up a lot of yardage or receptions. One thing he does well, however, is score TDs. Despite a very pedestrian 395 yards, Allen still hauled in eight TD receptions, vaulting him to 13th among all TEs last season in fantasy points. Allen is very TD dependent, but most TEs are late in the draft and he does it the best. He might burn you if he doesn't find the end zone, but will easily outperform his ranking when he does. His value would rise if anything were to happen to Fleener.
Bottom Line
The transition from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck has gone very smoothly as the Colts continue to dominate the mediocre AFC South. Their offense should be even better than last year's version, though their run defense will need to improve before they can hope to make it to the Super Bowl. They might finish with the best regular season record in the NFL this season, but I think they come up short of a Super Bowl appearance once again.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Stud: None
Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas are considerations for this category, but Robinson couldn't stay healthy last season and Thomas is going from the penthouse with Peyton Manning to the projects with Blake Bortles. His draft stock has predictably tumbled.
Bust: TJ Yeldon, RB
I was actually high on Yeldon early in the off season, but have cooled off on him since then. While he may have been the feature back at Alabama, he never finished higher than third in rushing yards in the SEC, 4th in TDs in the SEC, and 4th in plays from scrimmage in the SEC. He did carry an impressive yards per carry average (6.3 in 2012, 6.0 in 2013, 5.0 in 2014), but that is sure to go down as he switches from running behind Alabama's line to running behind the Jags' line. The good news for Yeldon is he has little competition and is at least competent in the pass game, but I think the offensive line and QB struggles will cap whatever upside Yeldon has. He could turn out to be a serviceable RB based solely on volume, but I think he gets held back by the team he is on.
Sleeper: Allen Robinson, WR
While Robinson did suffer a season ending foot injury in the middle of last season and is only in his second year as a pro, he is also arguably the most reliable pass catcher on this roster. Robinson was expected to be eased into the offense last year, but due to Cecil Shorts and Marquise Lee struggling with injuries, Robinson was relied on to be a source of offense. He responded by having a very steady nine game stretch from Weeks 2-10, topping 60+ yards six times, hauling in 47 passes, and scoring two TDs. Those numbers wouldn't look impressive with the Packers or Steelers, but those are above average for this Jags team who had a rookie QB in 2014. Robinson will open the season as the Jags' number one WR, and hopefully he will benefit from Blake Bortles' progression from his rookie year to his sophomore year. Robinson could be a low end WR2, but will probably wind up as a solid WR3/FLEX.
Bottom Line
The Jags won't surpass the Colts or Texans, but they are definitely getting better. Their real life and fantasy success rests on the shoulders of Blake Bortles and whether or not he can make strides in his second year. This defense will be better, hopefully putting this team and Bortles in better spots where they don't simply have to play catch up. Julius Thomas might be a recognizable name, but he struggled with injuries in Denver and got most of his value from back to back 12 TD seasons. I think five scores is more likely in this offense, and that's if he stays healthy.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: Delanie Walker, TE
After years of being stuck behind Vernon Davis in San Francisco, Walker came over to the Titans in 2013 and finished 12th among TEs that season and 9th among TEs in 2014 in terms of fantasy scoring. He is sort of in the Jason Witten mold in that he's not going to burn you or do anything spectacular, but he's a good route runner and always seems to make himself available for his QB. He put up 63 receptions, almost 900 yards, and four TDs on a Titans' team that was near the bottom in every offensive statistical category last season. Whether or not you think Marcus Mariota is the answer at QB for the Titans, I don't think he is a drop off at all from Zach Mettenberger or Charlie Whitehurst. Walker's situation hasn't gotten better, but it hasn't gotten worse, so I think you can expect similar numbers from last season. He's a sneaky bet to finish in the top 10 for fantasy TEs, despite playing on a below average offense.
Bust: Bishop Sankey, RB
I'll admit that I was one of the guys that was drinking the Sankey Kool-Aid before the start of last season. Sankey got glowing remarks coming out of college and was in line to be the featured back in this Tennessee offense. While he did turn out to be the feature back, he put up very poor statistics to back that up. His highest yardage total in any game last season was 61 against the Jags and Bengals, and he only managed to score two rushing TDs all year. He got double digit carries in eight contests last season, and still finished with only 569 yards and a 3.7 yards per carry average. Sankey may be the starting RB for the Titans by default, but his leash will be much shorter with rookie fifth round pick David Cobb around. If Sankey continues to struggle, it would surprise no one if he becomes part of a committee with Cobb sometime this season.
Sleeper: Marcus Mariota, QB
Like any highly drafted QB that comes into the league, there will be those that believe in him and those that think he will be a bust. It's not that I believe Mariota will be a great overall QB that makes me put him in the Sleeper category, but rather that I think he has all the tools needed to be a good fantasy QB. The knock against Mariota is that people don't think he can throw in the NFL, but for fantasy purposes, based on how low his draft position is, I really don't care. All I care about is that he can absolutely fly if he finds space to run. Since rushing yards count for more points than passing yards in fantasy and rushing TDs count for more than passing TDs (in some leagues), then his legs should help to keep his fantasy floor high, even if his ceiling is capped. Another thing to keep in mind is that people knock Mariota because his receivers were wide open at Oregon, but they were often times wide open because defense had to account for Mariota's scrambling and play making ability. While defenses in the NFL might be bigger and faster, they will still need to account for Mariota's speed when he gets outside the pocket, which should open up passing lanes and make life easier for Marcus. Not everyone is going to see eye to eye when it comes to Martiota, but given his low draft stock, elite speed, and better-than-perceived arm, I think he provides some kind of fantasy value this season, particularly as the season wears on.
Bottom Line
Despite rumors of a Phillip Rivers to Tennessee trade prior to the draft, the Titans decided to go all-in on Marcus Mariota and took him second overall. It will be interesting to see if head coach Ken Whisenhunt tries to force Mariota to run his offense, or puts in some of the spread, up-tempo kind of plays that Mariota ran at Oregon. The WR situation is up in the air, though Kendall Wright might be able to return some value in PPR leagues. Brian Orakpo was a nice pick up through free agency, but their defense is still one of the worst in the league. Unless Mariota has an RG3 type rookie season, expect this team to finish under 500, and possibly last in the division.
Matty O
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