Buffalo Bills
Studs: LeSean McCoy, RB, Sammy Watkins, WR, Defense/Special Teams
McCoy's move from Philly to Buffalo should give owners both hope and caution when considering drafting him. The reasons for hope is that McCoy is firmly the number one RB and should see more touches, whereas he was substituted out for Darren Sproles and even Chris Polk in Philly. Rex Ryan is committed to the run and, with a terrible collection of QBs, will likely rely on the run game to control the clock. If McCoy can stay healthy, he is a candidate to lead the NFL in carries. The reasons for caution is that the Buffalo offensive line is a downgrade from Philly's and the run defenses in the AFC East are much stouter than the ones in the NFC East. I think McCoy certainly improves upon his five rushing TDs from last season, though the yards might be tough to come by. His value will increase if Rex decides to utilize him in the passing game.
I debated putting Watkins in here because of his QB situation and how poorly he finished 2014, but his talent is still above league average and he should still have WR2 value. Watkins had no trouble adjusting to the NFL early on, tallying three 100+ yard games and five TDs in the first eight weeks of the season. After the Bills' Week 9 bye, however, things went downhill in a hurry. He had only one more 100+ yard game the rest of the season and only scored one more time. He had five games where he only caught three balls and one game where he came away with a single catch. Watkins is far from a safe pick, but his athletic ability coupled with the triple digit targets he will probably get, should make him a reasonable pick at his falling draft position.
This D/ST unit finished first among D/ST in fantasy last season, and I doubt that changes this year. They had eight double digit performances last season and two of those were 20+ (vs Miami, vs New York Jets). They even held Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense to a mere 13 points in Week 15. They were able to keep defensive end Jerry Hughes and, along with Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, and Marcell Dareus, form one of the best defensive lines in the league. They addressed their secondary concerns by drafting cornerback Ronald Darby in the second round of this year's draft, though the front four should create enough pressure that the secondary can get by with average talent. Add in Rex Ryan's notorious defensive scheme, and you have the makings of an elite fantasy and real life defense.
Bust: None
With Watkins' draft stock plummeting, I think the three Studs above are being drafted at a reasonable position.
Sleeper: Fred Jackson, RB
Jackson continues to be that old veteran that can provide a bye week fill in or handle a larger workload if the starting RB goes down. With McCoy coming over in the offseason, I think a lot of people have already forgotten the stats that Jackson can put up. Jackson is getting up there in age and injury concerns are a problem, but he still got 207 touches last season, 66 of which were receptions. He's clearly not even in McCoy's league in terms of being an every down back, but could provide some value in PPR formats as he is a better receiver than McCoy out of the backfield. Also keep in mind that McCoy will be expected to do more in between the tackles running in Buffalo, leading to more hits and possibly more nicks for McCoy. If he were to miss any time Jackson would be at least a low end RB2.
Bottom Line
There is a lot of excitement in Buffalo in 2015, mainly due to Rex Ryan and LeSean McCoy joining the fold. Their defense is one of the best in the league, though their QB situation is one of the worst. If their QB can simply not turn the ball over and rely on this defense and run game, then Buffalo has a chance to sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 1999.
Miami Dolphins
Studs: Lamar Miller, RB, Jarvis Landry (PPR), WR
Miller's value is hurt because he does not see the heavy workload that a DeMarco Murray or LeSean McCoy does, but he is productive with his touches to go along with eight scores last season. I was actually low on Miller after the draft because the Dolphins selected Jay Ajayi out of Boise State, but Ajayi has struggled in camp so far, allowing Miller to distance himself for the starting role in this offense. His 5.1 yards per carry will probably go down this season, but the TDs and a 1000+ yard season seem within reach. The only problem is that if Miller is not productive with his touches, he could sink your team as the Dolphins do not seem to be willing to force feed Miller carries.
Landry will have a low TD total, a low yardage total, but can be a valuable WR2/FLEX in PPR leagues. While the Dolphins did pick up Kenny Stills from the Saints and drafted DeVante Parker, Landry at least knows the Dolphins' system and clearly gained Ryan Tannehill's trust in 2014. Despite not even playing in Week 1 and being overshadowed by Mike Wallace to start the season, Landry still wound up with 84 receptions on 111 targets, and never had less than five catches from Week 9 until the end of the season. The new additions might drop Landry's targets a bit, but keep in mind that Stills is more of a deep, stretch the field threat and Parker has been battling injuries throughout the offseason.
Bust: Landry, WR
As I mentioned before, targets could be an issue for Landry this season, and he needs to see a lot of them to be productive. While Parker has been injured, he seems like the real deal and could surpass Landry as the WR to own in Miami in PPR and standard leagues. Because Landry is not a big WR, his TDs will be few and far between, lessening his value even more. Injuries to Stills and/or Parker could open up the door for Landry, but even if that opportunity occurs, he is still no more than a WR2/FLEX in PPR leagues.
Sleeper: Ryan Tannehill, QB
Tannehill seems poised for a big year in 2015. He has increased his passing yards and TDs every year he has been in the league, and posted a career low 12 interceptions in 2014. It is the second year in offensive coordinator Bill Lazor's offense, which emphasizes quick throws and an up tempo pace to the offense. While the Dolphins did lose WR Mike Wallace, they still have Landry, Parker, Stills, and new TE Jordan Cameron. If Jay Ajayi can get over his rookie struggles, that will provide RB depth that the Dolphins lacked last season. If LT Branden Albert can come back from his ACL and MCL tear last season, then this offense looks locked and loaded to put up points, even in a division with the Jets' and Bills' defenses. Tannehill should be the main beneficiary.
Bottom Line
The Dolphins looked impressive in Week 1 last season, beating the mighty Patriots by 13 at home to start the season. Even with the Pats' early struggles, however, New England still won the division and got revenge in a big way by blasting the Dolphins 41-13 in Foxborough. This Dolphin team is improved, but they still need to clear the hurdle of the dominant Patriots. Hopefully the addition of Ndamukong Suh to an already talented defense, can put them over the hump.
New England Patriots
Studs: Tom Brady, QB, Julian Edleman (PPR), WR, Rob Gronkowski, TE
Obviously things are still up in the air with Brady as Deflategate continues to drag on, but there's no doubting that Brady still has it from a fantasy perspective. While he currently is going to be suspended for the first four games of this season, he played fairly awful the first four games of the season last year anyways. He had three single digit games, and only managed 13 fantasy points against the Oakland Raiders. There were talks of benching Brady or even sending him to the waiver wire. Well, after the debacle in Kansas City in Week 4, Brady tore up the NFL, looking like vintage Brady and still finishing as the eighth best fantasy QB last season. The loss of Shane Vereen will hurt more than people think, but he still has Edleman, Brandon LaFell, and the Gronk to throw to. Regardless of when Brady plays, he should perform at a high QB1 level. It will be interesting to see how far he falls in drafts.
Edleman is a rich man's Jarvis Landry. Similar to Landry, Edleman is a poor bet to score a significant amount of TDs, but he is guaranteed to get triple digit targets and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 90+ receptions like he did in 2014. Brady will be throwing to him at some point this season but, because of how well Edleman creates separation at the line, I still think he can be decently productive if Jimmy Garoppolo is under center. Shane Vereen's absence might mean even more short targets his way, though I doubt he tops 1,000 yards. If you're just looking for consistent receptions, however, then Edleman is your guy and a player a wouldn't mind reaching for.
Gronk gets plenty of attention for his partying and goofy antics off the field, but on Sundays (also Mondays, Thursdays, and sometimes Saturdays) he shows up to play. Gronk is one of the most un-coverable players in the red zone as he has double digit TDs in every season except for 2013, when he only played seven games. Gronk even sees his fair share of targets between the 20s as he racked up 100 more receiving yards than any other TE. His 130 targets make WRs jealous, as Gronk should also perform at an adequate, but perhaps not elite, level when Garoppolo is under center. Gronk is the unquestioned fantasy TE1 and is worthy of his high draft cost.
Bust: Patriot RBs
For now, the presumed starter for between the tackles running is LeGarrette Blount. Blount, however, will miss the Patriots' Week 1 game and has to contend with Jonas Gray breathing down his neck. If it weren't for a missed team meeting following a 201 yard 4 TD performance against the Colts in Week 11 last year, I think Gray might have won the job down the stretch. Instead, Blount performed well to close the season out after coming over from Pittsburgh, though Gray looked good in the preseason opener this year against Green Bay. Gray will be the starter Week 1, and could have a chance to supplant Blount as the lead back. The problem is, I see a committee forming where one back does well, then the other one does. Belichick always makes game plans tailor made to the defense he is facing, so sometimes his RBs don't even get double digit carries. The Shane Vereen passing role is up for grabs, but James White and Brandon Bolden are two underwhelming candidates. This situation could work itself out during the season, but don't be surprised if you have a few headaches if you own any of these backs.
Sleeper: None
I don't see anyone on this squad greatly outperforming their draft position. Garoppolo could be considered a four game sleeper, as I think he does reasonably well while Brady is out.
Bottom Line
Could this be the year that the Pats are finally dethroned from the AFC East? Brady's ruling is in limbo, Shane Vereen is with the Giants, and Darrelle Revis went to the rival New York Jets. While all those losses are significant, we've seen Belichick work wonders with no name players before. I'm sure there are guys that no one has heard about that will make a difference for the Pats in some way this season. So, while a lot of signs are pointing to this team declining, I still wouldn't count them out for another AFC East crown.
New York Jets
Studs: Brandon Marshall, WR, Defense/Special Teams
Marshall struggled with injuries and off the field distractions during his last season in Chicago, finishing with less than 750 yards, though he did haul in eight TDs. Now with a fresh start in New York, I expect Marshall to bounce back and have a nice season in 2015. The QB situation in New York is shaky at best, but Marshall, like in Chicago, is sure to get footballs thrown his way early and often. He is probably the Jets' best red zone threat and should get his chances to score when the Jets do get down there, however rarely that may be. His numbers will be held back by poor QB play, but people seem to have completely forgotten about him because he left Chicago. Don't forget, and snag him as a WR2.
Rarely do I put an unproven player or unit in the Stud section, but this is a special case. The Jets D/ST finished 27th in fantasy points among D/ST units last season, largely because they couldn't produce turnovers and couldn't stop the pass. Things are looking much brighter after they picked up Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie through free agency, and then they drafted the best defensive player in this year's draft in Leonard Williams. Their front seven was already stout and the Revis and Cromartie additions should significantly shore up their secondary. Add in new head coach, former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles calling the shots, and I see this unit returning to top 10, possibly top 5 status.
Bust: Eric Decker, WR
I simply don't think this offense can support two WRs. I have no doubt that, health permitting, Marshall will lead this team in targets. The Jets also selected WR Devin Smith in the second round, though his early season status may be in jeopardy due to injury. The Jets will likely emphasize the run due to their poor QB situation and rely on their stout defense to give them good field position and more time of possession. I don't think Decker is a bad player by any means, but this offense will be limited in their aerial attack and Marshall is the only one that I think puts up enough numbers to be a fantasy starter.
Sleeper: Chris Ivory, RB
Ivory has great value this season as a lot of backs that also play two downs and are their teams' thumper (Alfred Morris, Mark Ingram) are going way ahead of him. Let others get those guys, and you wait to snag Ivory. Ivory struggled with injuries early in his career in New Orleans, but has played in every game except one since coming over to the Jets in 2013. He's faster than you think for his size and has always done well with his touches, never dipping under 4.1 yards per carry in any of his five NFL seasons. The Jets have terrible and/or injured backups behind Ivory, so perhaps he will finally get the full workload that the Jets have been hesitant to give him the last couple years. He is a lock to get all the goal line looks, and there has even been talk about getting him involved in the passing game. Ivory is one of my favorite sleepers in 2015.
Bottom Line
It's going to be ugly, it might be boring to watch, but I think the Jets are going to grind out a lot more victories than people think. With all the question marks the Patriots have, this division is really up for grabs and the Jets have a shot if they can cut down on the turnovers and create some with their defense. That formula might make it hard to win the division, but I could see them getting a Wild Card spot.
Matty O
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