Dallas Cowboys
Studs: Tony Romo, QB, Dez Bryant, WR
Despite finishing 23rd in pass attempts and missing a game due to injury, Romo still managed to finish 11th in fantasy points among QBs, making him a starter in 12 team leagues. He was able to achieve this by cutting down on the turnovers and consistently producing TDs. In fact, he had more TDs and the same amount of interceptions as Ben Roethlisberger, despite Big Ben throwing for six TDs in back to back games. The Cowboys will probably still want to establish the run behind their massive offensive line, but with DeMarco Murray gone, I think they will air it out a bit more in 2015. If Romo can stay healthy and get up to around 500 pass attempts (435 in 2014), he should be a top eight fantasy QB.
There was some concern this offseason that Dez would holdout into the regular season due to disagreements in contract negotiations. Thankfully, for the Cowboys and fantasy owners, the receiving TD leader in 2014 got a new contract and is good to go for 2015. Dez is one of the safer WRs to pick up as he has no real threat for targets behind him, has the trust of his QB, and is one of the best red zone threats in the league along with Rob Gronkowski and Demaryius Thomas. While Romo ranked 23rd in pass attempts, Dez ranked 12th in targets, though I expect him to rise in those ranks this season. Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, and Keenan Lewis are all on the schedule this season, but I still expect Dez to have a top five WR year.
Bust: Joseph Randle, RB
This pick is likely to blow up in my face, but I simply think that Randle's draft stock has risen too high. While it's true that he will be running behind one of the best lines in the league, it is likely he won't be the only one doing so. Word out of camp is that Darren McFadden will get a handful of reps and Lance Dunbar will see his share of passing down work. While McFadden is made of glass and gets injured every time he sneezes, Randle is not without his problems as well. Randle has been battling an oblique injury recently and has been in trouble off the field for drug charges and shoplifting. While neither were particularly serious charges, it's never a good sign to have that kind of stuff in your recent history, particularly with the league cracking down on off the field incidents. Randle could finish as a top 10 back if McFadden's health fails him once again, but his price is simply too high for me right now. Draft him as a high risk, high reward RB.
Sleeper: None
I'm tempted to put this D/ST unit here because Sean Lee is healthy (for now) and Greg Hardy will play at some point this season for this team, but the back end is so underwhelming that I can't bring myself to call them a Sleeper. They could have success late in the year however, as they face the Bucs, Panthers, Redskins, Jets, and Bills in the second half of the season, all of whom have questionable offenses at this point.
Bottom Line
The Cowboys should once again be in contention for a playoff spot, and possibly a deep run in the playoffs if one of their RBs emerges as a bell cow type RB. The defense is an obvious question mark, though they certainly look better on paper than the unit last year. Terrance Williams or Cole Beasley (PPR) might find some value in the passing game, but I think Dez hogs most of the targets for Dallas, leaving Williams and Beasley as bye week fill ins at best.
New York Giants
Studs: Odell Beckham, Jr., WR
ODB probably won a lot of people's leagues last year. People were wary of drafting or even claiming him off of waivers after it was known that he would miss the first quarter of the season with an injury. With no training camp and Victor Cruz to contend with, many thought that Beckham could contribute some, but certainly not reach the levels that he did. Well, Cruz went down with his own season ending injury, and Beckham became one of the best fantasy options at WR. In only 12 games last season, ODB had 91 receptions, 1305 yards, and 12 TDs. While Cruz is coming back this season, ODB has clearly established that he is the number one WR for the Giants, and certainly the best red zone threat on this team. The Giants' defense is arguably worse than it was last year, so expect them to fling the ball all over the place as they play catch up. Health permitting, ODB is a candidate for top overall WR this season.
Bust: Rashad Jennings, RB
Jennings started out the year strong, highlighted by a 176 yard, one TD performance in Week 3, but then cooled off on the stat sheet and was bitten by the injury bug. He wound up only playing in 11 games, perhaps showing that he is not built to handle a full workload. Before coming to the Giants, he had been a backup and only had to handle a lot of carries if the starter went down. In fact, he got more carries in 11 games last season than he did in 2013 in Oakland when he played in 15 games. I think the Giants are very aware of this fact and will likely give Andre Williams more between the tackles work. They also picked up Shane Vereen in the offseason, who will undoubtedly take most, if not all, of the passing down snaps. The decrease in workload coupled with a lot of games where the Giants will be trailing, puts Jennings in the FLEX or even bench role if his touches are severely limited.
Sleeper: Eli Manning, QB
Sometimes it's not how good you are, it's how good the players around you are. That is the case with Eli as he now has some of the best passing weapons in the game, though his tendency to throw head scratching interceptions will probably remain. ODB was a big reason why Eli was able to finish 10th among fantasy QBs last season, and now he gets Cruz back, along with the newly acquired Shane Vereen. While ODB might get a lot of the hype, I think Vereen is the most important guy in making Manning successful. He provides the short, dump off option that the Giants lacked last season, which resulted in Manning throwing the ball into coverage. Vereen's presence should allow for safer throws and less turnovers for Manning in 2015. There will still be occasional horrific games from Eli (Week 11 vs San Fran in 2014 he threw five interceptions), but his highs and lows should be better in 2015. Look for Eli to have a top eight QB season.
Bottom Line
Like the other teams in the NFC East, the offense is looking up, but the defense is a definite concern. The Gaints should air it out this season with ODB and Vereen being the most reliable options. If Cruz can stay healthy, he should be productive, particularly in PPR leagues where he plays out of the slot. Larry Donnell was a popular pick up early in 2014 at TE, but failed to score TDs with ODB playing. When Donnell doesn't find the end zone, he offers little to no fantasy value.
Philadelphia Eagles
Studs: DeMarco Murray, RB, Jordan Matthews, WR
After being the most productive RB in 2014, the Cowboys decided to let Murray go, and he just happened to wind up with the rival Philadelphia Eagles. The situation is so different for Murray that it is hard to project just how well he will do. The offensive line is a downgrade and he is sure to see a drop in his 393 rushes last season, but the Eagles operate their offense at a lightning fast pace, which should still allow Murray enough touches to make plays. He is one of the riskier top RBs to take because no one knows exactly how many touches he will get or what role he will play, but he has the upside to be a top five back.
I was high on Matthews coming out of Vanderbilt last season and, although it took him a while to get playing time, he made it count once he became a permanent starter. After the Eagles' Week 7 bye, Matthews hauled in six TDs and had three 100+ yard games. He was a reliable option out of the slot and should get even more looks now that Jeremy Maclin is in Kansas City. The tempo and movement of Chip Kelly's offense should get him into plenty of open space this season, making Matthews one of the better WR2 options, with upside to climb into the WR1 tier.
Bust: Eagles' RBs
I think this situation is going to turn into a DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart type situation where you have two talented backs that make for a dangerous combo for their real life team, but a frustrating combo for fantasy owners. While Murray is the number one back in Philly, Ryan Mathews is not far behind and should get his fair share of touches. Kelly likes to rotate backs to keep them fresh all game, which can lead to inconsistent numbers for his RBs at times. Darren Sproles is also still around to take receptions and a handful of carries away from Mathews and Murray. It is also important to note that, prior to 2014, Murray had not played a full 16 game season, and Mathews has only played a full 16 games once in his five year career. The pace of the offense and the demanding practices that Kelly runs could wear one, if not both of them down by the end of the year. Any player has upside with the tempo of this offense, but Murray and Mathews in particular, come with a high amount of risk.
Sleeper: Nelson Agholor, WR
The rookie out of USC could have a similar season to Matthews' 2014, as he is eased into the offense before putting up starting fantasy numbers late in the year. Agholor is a shifty slot WR who makes his money getting yards after the catch. He will probably be the go to guy on bubble screens or reveres, just to try and get him in the open field. While this offense is run oriented, it was able to support both Maclin and Matthews down the stretch last season, so Agholor has a chance to put up at least WR3/FLEX numbers. You can snag him late or off waivers.
Bottom Line
Everything with the Eagles hinges on if QB Sam Bradford can stay healthy, and if you truly believe in Chip Kelly's system. If Bradford goes down, I don't see the likes of Mark Sanchez or Matt Barkley leading this team to the playoffs. The value of a lot of the guys mentioned above would likely drop and Agholor could become a complete non-factor. This defense won't duplicate their 11 D/ST TDs from last season, but they should be a solid option in average to good matchups. The Eagles are the biggest threat to the Cowboys in the NFC East.
Washington Redskins
Studs: Alfred Morris, RB, DeSean Jackson, WR
Morris may not have the upside of a lot of the top NFL RBs, but he has one of the safest floors. Even with the entire offense in tatters last season, Morris still managed to go over 1,000 yards and score eight times. His value should be lowered in PPR leagues as he has never had more than 17 receptions in a season. Due to the uncertainty at QB and the fact that the Redskins play from behind a lot, Morris likely won't crack the top eight RBs, but he is someone you don't have to worry about and can feel good trotting him out as a RB2 any week of the season.
Jackson is the ultimate boom or bust, but if you don't mind players like that, then Jackson can provide some huge weeks for you. He racked up 1,169 receiving yards last season on only 56 receptions, an average of 20.9 yards per catch. That's the kind of player Jackson has been his whole career and that is what you'll get when you draft him. If he doesn't get that long bomb, he'll likely sink your fantasy team, but when he can connect on one or two of them, he can post WR1 numbers at a WR2 price. His volatility makes starting him and facing him a game long nightmare.
Bust: Robert Griffin III, QB
It's not really that he will be a bust as his draft stock has dropped significantly, but this will be RG3's last hurrah in Washington, and he should at least start in Week 1. He might post a couple good games to begin the year, but injuries and poor decision making will be his downfall for the Redskins and fantasy owners alike. When RG3 is starting and healthy, it raises the value of everyone around him, but once the threat of RG3 running is taken away, he becomes a mediocre QB at best. While I'm actually rooting for him to succeed, I think he flounders once again and ends his time in DC on a low note. It will be interesting to see if anyone can revitalize this talented, young QB's career.
Sleeper: Jordan Reed, TE
If not now, then when? The past two seasons Reed has shown incredible skill on the field as well as a knack for getting injured on it. He's only played 20 games the past two seasons, frustrating fantasy owners as he has posted good games when healthy. It looked as though Niles Paul was going to enter the season as the starting TE for the Redskins, but he has already suffered a season ending injury. Reed himself is already battling a hamstring injury this offseason, though it doesn't look to be serious. If he can somehow stay healthy, Reed would be in the TE1 conversation regardless of who Washington throws out at QB. He's currently going undrafted so it won't cost much to take a chance on him.
Bottom Line
An unstable QB situation, bottom of the league defense, and injuries before the season starts leads me to believe that the Redskins are heading for another last place finish. Morris is the only safe option in Washington, though Pierre Garcon could come back to fantasy relevance if RG3 somehow stays healthy, as those two had a solid connection in RG3's rookie season. This is not a good time to be a Redskins fan.
Matty O
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