Eight Is Great
After a dreadful round of 32 and a less than memorable Sweet 16, I was beginning to wonder if all the excitement of this year's tourney had been used up on Day 1. Even going into the Elite Eight matchups, I had my doubts about how much excitement we would see. Arizona and Wisconsin was going to be a sure fire great game, but the other three had potential snooze fest written all over them. Kentucky just came off an obliteration of West Virginia, and Notre Dame had cut it close in every game they had played up to that point, including a first round, four point win over Northeastern. Louisville might have been the higher seed, but they were still a poor offensive team and faced the 13, 5, and 8 seeds to get to the Elite Eight, while Michigan State had to beat the 10, 2, and 3 seeds to get there. Duke and Gonzaga had potential, but the Zags had yet to be truly tested and Duke had been rolling up to that point.
Thankfully, all four games were competitive with the Kentucky-Notre Dame game sure to go down as an instant classic. I thought Kentucky was dead in the water, but the Harrison twins came up big down the stretch. The Zona-Wisconsin game was as good as advertised as Frank Kaminsky may have led the Badgers in scoring, but it was Sam Dekker that put the nail in Arizona's coffin. MSU-Louisville went all the way to overtime as the duo of Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice led the Spartans. Duke-Gonzaga was a close game until there was five minutes left to go in the game. From then, with Duke only up by two, the Zags scored only one point in the final five minutes and lost by 14. Both Final Four matchups should provide us with the same amount of excitement with Wisconsin-Kentucky on one side and Duke-Michigan State on the other.
Undefeated, Unbeatable, Un-Hateable?
Hatred in sports is often fueled by winning. Entering the tournament, who hated Georgia State? Who envied Hampton and wanted them to lose with a passion? A select few, and even that might be an overestimation. They don't have rich histories, they don't win titles, and they don't have five star recruits lining up to go to their school. On the other end of that spectrum is a team like Kentucky. UK essentially plays next year's NBA All-Rookie team, has a future Hall of Fame coach in John Calipari, and has as rich of a basketball tradition as anyone. So, why do I find myself actually rooting for them? Why am I hoping for this undefeated season to come true?
Maybe it's my love for another polarizing team (Dallas Cowboys) that blinds me, but I just don't see what you can hate about this team in particular. Most of the time elite teams have that one player that you can rally your hate around. In recent memory, you think about the likes of Adam Morrison, JJ Redick, Tyler Hansbrough, and my personal favorite player to hate, Aaron Craft, and it would stand to reason that someone on this undefeated Kentucky team should be labeled as "hateable." I have yet to find that player. Perhaps it's because Coach Cal plays so many players that it is impossible for fans to pick out someone to hate. All I know is that this team doesn't showboat, they don't get in trouble off the court, and they accept their roles as part of a team, rather than pursuing individual fame.
Kentucky has also had the added benefit of playing not-so-likealbe teams so far. The Hampton game was whatever, but the Cincy game got pretty rough. Cincy, in my opinion, took it too far and were acting like punks, intentionally trying to rattle Kentucky. Intentional or not, it sparked the Wildcats down the stretch and turned a competitive game into a comfortable win. West Virginia might have gotten the people's sympathy if freshman Daxter Miles Jr. hadn't run his mouth and said Kentucky doesn't play hard. UK embarrassed West Virginia and doubled their score. Their last game was conveniently against one of the most hated (and loved) sports programs in America, Notre Dame. The fact that it was such a good game should have left fans with nothing but respect for both teams. For history and interest in the tournament's sake, I hope these Wildcats can close it out and finish undefeated.
Coaching Excellence
No offense to Bo Ryan, but if Roy Williams and North Carolina had beaten Wisconsin and Arizona to get to the Final Four, this group of coaches would have been even better. Regardless, this is still a fantastic group in the Final Four. John Calipari, Tom Izzo, Mike Krzyzewski, and Ryan are four of the best coaches in college basketball, with the former three arguably the top three. It's incredible to think that at least one of these coaches have been in every Final Four since 2007. Heck, Coach Cal even made it in 2008 without wearing Kentucky Blue (he coached Derrick Rose's Memphis team). Given the volatile behavior and mentality of 18-22 year old college kids, it really is an amazing feat to sustain that level of consistency. The battle that rages between the players on the court will be what gets the attention, but the battle of strategy and motivational tactics between the coaches may be what decides these two games.
All Big Ten Final
If MSU and Wisconsin both win, then there would be an all Big Ten final, as the teams would meet for the third time this season. A championship game with two teams from the same conference hasn't happened since 1988 when Kansas and Oklahoma met as members of the Big Eight Conference. Due to scheduling, these two teams only met once during the regular season, with Wisconsin coming away with a seven point victory at home. They met two weeks later in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. State appeared to have the game in hand as they were up 11 with seven and a half minutes left to play, and were controlling the game. Wisconsin rallied to tie the game in regulation, before shutting out the Spartans in overtime and winning the Big Ten title. I have no doubt a potential third matchup would be another tight one, but both will have to beat the odds and pull upsets in the Final Four.
Kentucky vs Wisconsin
I would've felt better about Wisconsin's chances before this past weekend's Elite Eight games. I say that, not because of how Kentucky or Wisconsin played, but because Notre Dame played a hellacious game and still lost to the Wildcats. While UK was unlucky at times and simply missed some easy shots, there were a couple things that Notre Dame exposed in their loss. The first is that UK is not the greatest team in their half court offense. If you can get numbers back so they can't fast break, they sometimes struggle finding a good shot. Wisconsin is great in their half court defense and could cause a cold spell for UK's offense. Wisconsin is an experienced and disciplined enough team to know that getting into a shootout with UK is a recipe for failure. The second thing is that Kentucky's bigs can be beat defensively. Zach Auguste shredded the Cats inside, particularly Karl Anthony Towns, to the point where Coach Cal had to substitute Towns off the court for defensive possessions. Auguste is a great player, but he's no Frank Kaminsky. Frank the Tank should, and will need to, have a big game down low in the post.
From Kentucky's vantage point, however, they have to feel great about their matchup inside on the offensive end. I mentioned how Towns was subbed out for defensive possessions because he struggled so much, but he was put right back in for offensive possessions because he was so unstoppable. Towns finished with 25 points on 10 of 13 shooting and was automatic once he established position down low. It will be interesting to see if Wisconsin chooses to double him. Notre Dame refused to do so, even as Towns was racking up points. Kaminsky is a good defender, but Towns has the ability to out-muscle Frank. Bo Ryan may even put Kaminsky on Willie Cauley-Stein because of the length and athleticism of both players. Regardless, I think Kentucky, like Wisconsin, will have an advantage down low on the offensive end.
So what decides this game? Well, with things sort of washing out down low, I think it will come down to how both teams won their Elite Eight matchups. If Sam Dekker can provide solid complimentary scoring to Kaminsky while keeping the threat of the three pointer in the minds of Kentucky defenders, then I think they have a great shot. While the Harrison twins didn't score a lot of points in the Elite Eight game, they made crucial shots down the stretch. If both of them, along with Devin Booker can knock down their shots, then Kentucky will have a great chance to win. In the end, I think Kentucky's depth gets to Wisconsin and Dekker hits some, but not enough, big shots down the stretch as the Cats win a tight one.
Final Score: Kentucky - 76, Wisconsin - 72
Michigan State vs Duke
If I were the Spartans, I wouldn't worry about that 10 point loss to Duke early in the season. Both teams were still figuring out who they were and both teams have improved immensely. I would, however, worry about Jahlil Okafor and the fact that MSU doesn't have anyone that can guard him one on one. Don't feel too bad though, not many teams have that. The key will be how often, and when, MSU does double Okafor. The Zags and Utes did that all game, leading to a combined 15 points for Okafor in the last two rounds. The bad news is that it freed up Duke's guards for wide open shots. Therein lies the problem for any team that faces Duke. Even if you stop Okafor's point totals, he is still a major factor because it opens up someone else on the floor. Okafor can be one of the players of the game without scoring in double digits because of the attention that he draws on every possession. I suppose forcing Duke to make shots rather than allowing Okafor to work people over down low is the better of the two options, but neither is enticing for a coach.
I still can't figure out how this Spartan team has come so far. Yes, Tom Izzo is a whiz in March, but he usually does it with more talented teams than this. Even he has admitted that, talent wise, this team is not the greatest. They have been successful by improving in all aspects throughout the year and playing as a unit. Their defense has been spectacular this tournament and is the foundation of why they are playing in the Final Four as a seven seed. Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine, and Branden Dawson are the trio that runs the show on the offensive side of the ball. Trice has developed into a do-it-all kind of player with a propensity to hit clutch shots. Valentine can play big, but still has a shooters touch. Dawson is their guy down low and should see plenty of Okafor on Saturday.
This game will be strength on strength. Duke is one of the most balanced offensive teams in the nation and will put points on the board no matter what defensive strategy their opponent draws up. MSU has played lights out defense this tournament, albeit against teams that were not the greatest offensively. This game's deciding factor is pretty simple; can Duke make their threes? Okafor will get doubled, players will be open, and shots will be fired. I think this winds up being a classic, hard fought game, but I think Michigan State's lack of pure talent finally catches up with them as Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow make enough shots for Duke to advance.
Final Score: Duke - 68, Michigan State - 67
Duke vs Kentucky
This would be a nightmare matchup for Duke because of Willie Cauley-Stein and the depth of Kentucky. Duke essentially plays four guards with Justice Winslow listed as a forward even though he's only 6'6". This normally wouldn't be a problem except Cauley-Stein can move and keep up with guards, but just so happens to be seven feet tall. Coach K can choose to put in a Amile Jefferson, but then one of his talented guards will be off the floor. Towns and Okafor would be a heck of a matchup down low between two likely NBA lottery picks, but Cauley Stein would be the deciding factor on the perimeter. Duke also has virtually no bench to go to, while UK subs people in and out, early and often. This will wear on the Blue Devis, particularly Okafor. Dakari Johnson, Cauley-Stein, and Towns would collectively be able to wear down Okafor as Okafor has no backup that is even close to his skill level. Duke would hang early on, but Kentucky would pull away and win by a comfortable margin.
Final Score: Kentucky - 82, Duke - 72
Matty O
Monday, March 30, 2015
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
2015 Regional Breakdown: Final Four & Final Thoughts
Kentucky vs North Carolina
Kentucky vs anybody would not be good for the "anybody." UNC's depth will be neutralized in this game as Kentucky has even better depth. There is little, if any, drop off from Kentucky's starters to their subs that they bring in. Marcus Paige could still go off, but even that probably won't be enough. Kentucky is simply too deep, too balanced, and too good. Carolina keeps it close, but can't close it out in the end.
Virginia vs Gonzaga
This is your classic unstoppable force meets the immovable object. Virginia is first in the nation in points allowed, limiting opponents to just over 50 points per game. They dictate the tempo of the game and limit the pressure put on their average offense to score. The 'Zags meanwhile, rank 10th in points per game and first in field goal percentage. The 'Zags need to press the issue, similar to when Duke beat Virginia, and try to get a lot of fast break opportunities, even if they don't always convert those opportunities into points. If you let Virginia set up in their half court defense, even the 'Zags will find it hard to score. At this stage in the tourney, I'll take an elite defense over an elite offense any day of the week. Virginia's defense has been battle tested in a loaded ACC this year. With Justin Anderson fully back in the swing of things by this point, I think the Cavaliers pull it out.
Championship Game: Kentucky vs Virginia
If you believe in the adage that "offense wins games, defense wins championships," then this is the game for you. Virginia might be first in points allowed, but UK is right behind them in third and also are second in the nation in blocks per game. I think this is a defensive, grind-it-out kind of game, as neither of these teams have seen a defense quite like the one they will face in the title game. I'll still go with UK because their offense has improved and is certainly better than Virginia's. The Wildcats also possess the height and length advantage over Virginia. It will be a close, low-scoring game, but I think the Wildcats finish off their season as National Champions and undefeated.
Final Thoughts
Beware The Twos - Virginia, Gonzaga, and Arizona all could make a case to be one seeds. Kansas drew a tough matchup in the second round, but if Wichita falls in the first round, then the Jayhawks could make some noise.
Top Seed Tourney - While I have some upsets scattered around my bracket, I don't see any crazy deep runs by lower seeds. My Elite Eight has three number one seeds, two number twos, two number threes, and a four.
I Got A Feeling Upsets - There are always those upsets that happen where you can't explain them, but you just have a feeling that something fishy might happen. Here are a few that I have a bad feeling about, but I couldn't actually pull the trigger and put them in my bracket.
Kentucky vs anybody would not be good for the "anybody." UNC's depth will be neutralized in this game as Kentucky has even better depth. There is little, if any, drop off from Kentucky's starters to their subs that they bring in. Marcus Paige could still go off, but even that probably won't be enough. Kentucky is simply too deep, too balanced, and too good. Carolina keeps it close, but can't close it out in the end.
Virginia vs Gonzaga
This is your classic unstoppable force meets the immovable object. Virginia is first in the nation in points allowed, limiting opponents to just over 50 points per game. They dictate the tempo of the game and limit the pressure put on their average offense to score. The 'Zags meanwhile, rank 10th in points per game and first in field goal percentage. The 'Zags need to press the issue, similar to when Duke beat Virginia, and try to get a lot of fast break opportunities, even if they don't always convert those opportunities into points. If you let Virginia set up in their half court defense, even the 'Zags will find it hard to score. At this stage in the tourney, I'll take an elite defense over an elite offense any day of the week. Virginia's defense has been battle tested in a loaded ACC this year. With Justin Anderson fully back in the swing of things by this point, I think the Cavaliers pull it out.
Championship Game: Kentucky vs Virginia
If you believe in the adage that "offense wins games, defense wins championships," then this is the game for you. Virginia might be first in points allowed, but UK is right behind them in third and also are second in the nation in blocks per game. I think this is a defensive, grind-it-out kind of game, as neither of these teams have seen a defense quite like the one they will face in the title game. I'll still go with UK because their offense has improved and is certainly better than Virginia's. The Wildcats also possess the height and length advantage over Virginia. It will be a close, low-scoring game, but I think the Wildcats finish off their season as National Champions and undefeated.
Final Thoughts
Beware The Twos - Virginia, Gonzaga, and Arizona all could make a case to be one seeds. Kansas drew a tough matchup in the second round, but if Wichita falls in the first round, then the Jayhawks could make some noise.
Top Seed Tourney - While I have some upsets scattered around my bracket, I don't see any crazy deep runs by lower seeds. My Elite Eight has three number one seeds, two number twos, two number threes, and a four.
I Got A Feeling Upsets - There are always those upsets that happen where you can't explain them, but you just have a feeling that something fishy might happen. Here are a few that I have a bad feeling about, but I couldn't actually pull the trigger and put them in my bracket.
- Midwest - Buffalo over West Virginia, Texas over Butler, Wichita State over Notre Dame
- East - Northern Iowa over Villanova, UC Irvine over Louisville
- South - San Diego State over Duke, Davidson over Iowa
- West - Georgia State over Baylor, Ohio State over Arizona
2015 Regional Breakdown: West
Participants
Wisconsin, Coastal Carolina, Oregon, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Wofford, North Carolina, Xavier, Ole Miss, Baylor, Georgia State, VCU, Ohio State, Arizona, Texas Southern
Team That Will Overachieve: North Carolina
The combination of a favorable opening weekend draw and the ability to match up well with the number one seeded Badgers, makes the Tar Heels a dark horse in this region. UNC has the talent to knock off anybody in the country, they just have had a hard time closing out games. At Louisville, at Duke, and in the ACC Championship against Notre Dame are all games they had in hand and let slip away. The good news is they have also shown their own resilience, particularly their comeback win against Louisville after being down 13 with eight minutes left to play. Harvard barely made it into the tournament, and Wofford and Arkansas don't worry me at all. Stylistically, UNC plays very similar to Duke, apart from the increase in zone defense that Duke has run this year. Duke just happens to be the only non-Big 10 team to beat Wisconsin this year, winning by 10 at the Kohl Center where Wisconsin is invincible. UNC runs deep, as they have 10 players averaging at least 10 minutes a game. UNC doesn't have an individual that can stop Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky, but a collective effort from Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson could slow him down. Offensively, Marcus Paige is the kind of player that, if he gets hot, can carry a team through a single elimination tournament such as this (think Stephen Curry of Davidson or Kemba Walker of UConn). If UNC can close out games, it would not surprise me if they win this region.
Team That Will Underachieve: Arizona
Maybe it's because their games don't start until after my bedtime, but I'm not a believer in this team despite a lot of experts picking them as a popular selection to win this region. Admittedly, there is a lot to like about them though. Arizona won all their marquee games, including non-conference wins over San Diego State and Gonzaga, and haven't lost since early February. They have arguably the best starting five in the country (including Kentucky) and are in the top 22 in points per game and points against. So why the doubt? For starters, they have to face the winner of the best 7/10 matchup in the tournament. They will either be matched up against VCU's HAVOC defense that pressures the heck out of teams, or they will be given the unenviable task of trying to stop future top five NBA draft pick D'Angelo Russell of the Ohio State Buckeyes. If they get by that, I think a potential Sweet 16 matchup with Baylor could be their downfall, given Baylor's athleticism and rebounding prowess. I still have the Wildcats advancing to the Sweet 16, but I'm sure they would be looking for more than that.
Bold Prediction: Top Four Seeds Advance To Sweet 16
None of my other regions have all top four seeds advancing to the Sweet 16, and this is one of the most difficult regions for all four top seeds to advance past the first weekend. Oregon can give Wisconsin trouble for a good 25 minutes before the Badgers likely pull away. 'Zona has the hardest second round matchup in the region. Baylor should be on upset alert right from the start as Georgia State has a legitimate backcourt with RJ Hunter and Ryan Harrow, though they don't have much else. UNC is the only top seed that should get a fairly calm first weekend. Normally, however, something crazy happens during the first weekend to prevent a top four seed from reaching the Sweet 16. While I do have two first round upsets in this region (Wofford over Arkansas, Ohio State over VCU), I don't think any Cinderella shenanigans happen in the second round of this region.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 10
This region has quality teams from top to bottom. 'Zona, based on resume alone, could argue that they deserve to be a one seed. UNC has all the tools to advance far in any region and they are the fourth seed. VCU and OSU will at least knock one or the other out of the tournament, but the remaining team is one to watch out for. Number 12 Wofford pulls the upset I believe, and Georgia State should give Baylor all it can handle in the first round. While I would have liked BYU's chances more, 11th seeded Ole Miss could make some noise as there is usually one play-in team that performs decently in the tournament.
Winner Of Region: North Carolina
UNC's depth is key with the two games in two days format of the tournament. Closing out games will be key no matter who their opponent is, but especially down the stretch against teams like Wisconsin. Marcus Paige is the ultimate x-factor as he can single handedly turn UNC from an early exit team to a Final Four team.
Matty O
Wisconsin, Coastal Carolina, Oregon, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Wofford, North Carolina, Xavier, Ole Miss, Baylor, Georgia State, VCU, Ohio State, Arizona, Texas Southern
Team That Will Overachieve: North Carolina
The combination of a favorable opening weekend draw and the ability to match up well with the number one seeded Badgers, makes the Tar Heels a dark horse in this region. UNC has the talent to knock off anybody in the country, they just have had a hard time closing out games. At Louisville, at Duke, and in the ACC Championship against Notre Dame are all games they had in hand and let slip away. The good news is they have also shown their own resilience, particularly their comeback win against Louisville after being down 13 with eight minutes left to play. Harvard barely made it into the tournament, and Wofford and Arkansas don't worry me at all. Stylistically, UNC plays very similar to Duke, apart from the increase in zone defense that Duke has run this year. Duke just happens to be the only non-Big 10 team to beat Wisconsin this year, winning by 10 at the Kohl Center where Wisconsin is invincible. UNC runs deep, as they have 10 players averaging at least 10 minutes a game. UNC doesn't have an individual that can stop Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky, but a collective effort from Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson could slow him down. Offensively, Marcus Paige is the kind of player that, if he gets hot, can carry a team through a single elimination tournament such as this (think Stephen Curry of Davidson or Kemba Walker of UConn). If UNC can close out games, it would not surprise me if they win this region.
Team That Will Underachieve: Arizona
Maybe it's because their games don't start until after my bedtime, but I'm not a believer in this team despite a lot of experts picking them as a popular selection to win this region. Admittedly, there is a lot to like about them though. Arizona won all their marquee games, including non-conference wins over San Diego State and Gonzaga, and haven't lost since early February. They have arguably the best starting five in the country (including Kentucky) and are in the top 22 in points per game and points against. So why the doubt? For starters, they have to face the winner of the best 7/10 matchup in the tournament. They will either be matched up against VCU's HAVOC defense that pressures the heck out of teams, or they will be given the unenviable task of trying to stop future top five NBA draft pick D'Angelo Russell of the Ohio State Buckeyes. If they get by that, I think a potential Sweet 16 matchup with Baylor could be their downfall, given Baylor's athleticism and rebounding prowess. I still have the Wildcats advancing to the Sweet 16, but I'm sure they would be looking for more than that.
Bold Prediction: Top Four Seeds Advance To Sweet 16
None of my other regions have all top four seeds advancing to the Sweet 16, and this is one of the most difficult regions for all four top seeds to advance past the first weekend. Oregon can give Wisconsin trouble for a good 25 minutes before the Badgers likely pull away. 'Zona has the hardest second round matchup in the region. Baylor should be on upset alert right from the start as Georgia State has a legitimate backcourt with RJ Hunter and Ryan Harrow, though they don't have much else. UNC is the only top seed that should get a fairly calm first weekend. Normally, however, something crazy happens during the first weekend to prevent a top four seed from reaching the Sweet 16. While I do have two first round upsets in this region (Wofford over Arkansas, Ohio State over VCU), I don't think any Cinderella shenanigans happen in the second round of this region.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 10
This region has quality teams from top to bottom. 'Zona, based on resume alone, could argue that they deserve to be a one seed. UNC has all the tools to advance far in any region and they are the fourth seed. VCU and OSU will at least knock one or the other out of the tournament, but the remaining team is one to watch out for. Number 12 Wofford pulls the upset I believe, and Georgia State should give Baylor all it can handle in the first round. While I would have liked BYU's chances more, 11th seeded Ole Miss could make some noise as there is usually one play-in team that performs decently in the tournament.
Winner Of Region: North Carolina
UNC's depth is key with the two games in two days format of the tournament. Closing out games will be key no matter who their opponent is, but especially down the stretch against teams like Wisconsin. Marcus Paige is the ultimate x-factor as he can single handedly turn UNC from an early exit team to a Final Four team.
Matty O
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
2015 Regional Breakdown: South
Participants
Duke, North Florida/Robert Morris, San Diego State, St. John's, Utah, Stephen F. Austin, Georgetown, Eastern Washington, SMU, UCLA, Iowa State, UAB, Iowa, Davidson, Gonzaga, North Dakota State
Team That Will Overachieve: Gonzaga
Seems strange to call the second seeded 'Zags an overachiever, but given their tournament history, it will be considered an impressive feat if they even get by the first weekend. Consider that the 'Zags have lost in the first or second round every year since 2009. They haven't even made it to their regional final since 1999. They schedule challenging non-conference games, but are rarely tested once West Coast Conference games begin. So why do I think they will go far this year? The main reason is because they have three of the best college basketball players in the country who fill their roles nicely. Kevin Pangos, who it seems like has played there since the dawn of time, runs the show at the point as a distributor and decent scorer. Kyle Wiltjer is probably the most recognizable name on this team because he used to play for Kentucky. He was on UK's 2012 Championship team and won the SEC Sixth Man of the Year Award in 2013 for his excellent shooting coming off the bench. He still shoots lights out from three (46.6%), only now he's a starter at Gonzaga. The final piece to the puzzle is 7'1" center Przemek Karnowski. He clogs the lane and is third on the team in scoring behind Pangos and Wiltjer. This is the best team that coach Mark Few has had, and I think they make it all the way to the Final Four.
Team That Will Underachieve: Georgetown
While it would go against recent trends if the 'Zags were to make the Final Four, it would be right in line with recent trends if Georgetown were to go out early. They have lost in the first or second round every year they've made the tourney since 2008 (2009 and 2014 they didn't make the tournament). The list of debacles includes losing to 10th seeded Davidson in the second round (2008), losing to 14th seeded Ohio in the first round (2010), losing to 11th seeded VCU in the first round (2011), losing to 11th seeded NC State in the second round (2012), and losing to 15th seeded Florida Gulf Coast in the first round (2013). Their only notable road win all year was a six point win at Butler. They face a high flying Eastern Washington team in the first round that I think will show the Hoyas the door in the first round once again.
Bold Prediction: The 12 and 13 Seeds Will Win And Face Each Other In The Second Round
Although this sounds like a bold prediction, the numbers would actually tell you that a scenario like this is likely to happen. Since 2008, this 12/13 matchup has surprisingly happened six times (2013, 2012, 2011, 2009, twice in 2008). The 12 seed is 4-2 in those games, but none of them have advanced any farther. If there is going to be a 12/13 matchup in any region this year, I think it is this one. Eastern Washington's defense is ridiculously bad, but their offense is ridiculously good. They are third in the nation in points per game and 19th in field goal percentage. Georgetown is the more talented team though, and should win this game, but they should've won all those games mentioned above when they got upset. Stephen F. Austin has only lost once since November and returns a lot of the same team that pulled off a 12/5 upset last year over VCU. Utah, like Georgetown, is more talented than their opponent in this matchup, but they failed to win their marquee games (0-4 vs Arizona and Oregon) and wound up with the dreaded five seed. It won't be easy, but both teams have a chance to pull the upsets.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 9
Collectively, this might be the best #1, 2, and 3 seed of all the regions. Duke is Duke, the 'Zags have their triple headed monster, and I like what Iowa State brings to the table athletically with the likes of Georges Niang and Jameel McKay. A potential Sweet 16 matchup between the 'Zags and Cyclones would be a candidate for Game of the Tournament. Stephen F. Austin and Eastern Washington are teams that have a legitimate shot at pulling upsets and San Diego State will give Duke its toughest game until they reach the regional final.
Winner Of Region: Gonzaga
See above. The balance of a point guard, sniper shooter, and big man down low should help them buck the trend of early exits. The 7/10 matchup in their region is also, by far, the weakest of all the 7/10 matchups in the tournament. The 'Zags should cruise until Iowa State.
Matty O
Duke, North Florida/Robert Morris, San Diego State, St. John's, Utah, Stephen F. Austin, Georgetown, Eastern Washington, SMU, UCLA, Iowa State, UAB, Iowa, Davidson, Gonzaga, North Dakota State
Team That Will Overachieve: Gonzaga
Seems strange to call the second seeded 'Zags an overachiever, but given their tournament history, it will be considered an impressive feat if they even get by the first weekend. Consider that the 'Zags have lost in the first or second round every year since 2009. They haven't even made it to their regional final since 1999. They schedule challenging non-conference games, but are rarely tested once West Coast Conference games begin. So why do I think they will go far this year? The main reason is because they have three of the best college basketball players in the country who fill their roles nicely. Kevin Pangos, who it seems like has played there since the dawn of time, runs the show at the point as a distributor and decent scorer. Kyle Wiltjer is probably the most recognizable name on this team because he used to play for Kentucky. He was on UK's 2012 Championship team and won the SEC Sixth Man of the Year Award in 2013 for his excellent shooting coming off the bench. He still shoots lights out from three (46.6%), only now he's a starter at Gonzaga. The final piece to the puzzle is 7'1" center Przemek Karnowski. He clogs the lane and is third on the team in scoring behind Pangos and Wiltjer. This is the best team that coach Mark Few has had, and I think they make it all the way to the Final Four.
Team That Will Underachieve: Georgetown
While it would go against recent trends if the 'Zags were to make the Final Four, it would be right in line with recent trends if Georgetown were to go out early. They have lost in the first or second round every year they've made the tourney since 2008 (2009 and 2014 they didn't make the tournament). The list of debacles includes losing to 10th seeded Davidson in the second round (2008), losing to 14th seeded Ohio in the first round (2010), losing to 11th seeded VCU in the first round (2011), losing to 11th seeded NC State in the second round (2012), and losing to 15th seeded Florida Gulf Coast in the first round (2013). Their only notable road win all year was a six point win at Butler. They face a high flying Eastern Washington team in the first round that I think will show the Hoyas the door in the first round once again.
Bold Prediction: The 12 and 13 Seeds Will Win And Face Each Other In The Second Round
Although this sounds like a bold prediction, the numbers would actually tell you that a scenario like this is likely to happen. Since 2008, this 12/13 matchup has surprisingly happened six times (2013, 2012, 2011, 2009, twice in 2008). The 12 seed is 4-2 in those games, but none of them have advanced any farther. If there is going to be a 12/13 matchup in any region this year, I think it is this one. Eastern Washington's defense is ridiculously bad, but their offense is ridiculously good. They are third in the nation in points per game and 19th in field goal percentage. Georgetown is the more talented team though, and should win this game, but they should've won all those games mentioned above when they got upset. Stephen F. Austin has only lost once since November and returns a lot of the same team that pulled off a 12/5 upset last year over VCU. Utah, like Georgetown, is more talented than their opponent in this matchup, but they failed to win their marquee games (0-4 vs Arizona and Oregon) and wound up with the dreaded five seed. It won't be easy, but both teams have a chance to pull the upsets.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 9
Collectively, this might be the best #1, 2, and 3 seed of all the regions. Duke is Duke, the 'Zags have their triple headed monster, and I like what Iowa State brings to the table athletically with the likes of Georges Niang and Jameel McKay. A potential Sweet 16 matchup between the 'Zags and Cyclones would be a candidate for Game of the Tournament. Stephen F. Austin and Eastern Washington are teams that have a legitimate shot at pulling upsets and San Diego State will give Duke its toughest game until they reach the regional final.
Winner Of Region: Gonzaga
See above. The balance of a point guard, sniper shooter, and big man down low should help them buck the trend of early exits. The 7/10 matchup in their region is also, by far, the weakest of all the 7/10 matchups in the tournament. The 'Zags should cruise until Iowa State.
Matty O
Monday, March 16, 2015
2015 Regional Breakdown: East
Participants
Villanova, Louisiana Lafayette, North Carolina State, LSU, Northern Iowa, Wyoming, Louisville, UC Irvine, Providence, Boise State/Dayton, Oklahoma, Albany, Michigan State, Georgia, Virginia, Belmont
Team That Will Overachieve: Providence
Providence, and the Big East as a whole, has flown under the radar this year. Their best win was in early February in Georgetown, and they played Villanova tough in the Big East Tournament before falling by two. They get a favorable draw on opening weekend with a game against either Boise State or Dayton, followed by a likely matchup with Oklahoma. Neither play-in team scares me, and Oklahoma hasn't won a significant game away from Norman since beating Texas back in early January. Since then, they lost at West Virginia, at Kansas, at Baylor, at Kansas State, at Iowa State, then at a neutral site in the Big 12 Tournament to Iowa State again. I think Providence rides Kris Dunn, one of the best points guards in the country, to the Sweet 16.
Team That Will Underachieve: Louisville
Some might argue that they have already underachieved quite a bit this year. They've played at a good level this year, but not an elite level, especially since kicking Chris Jones off the team. Since early February, they have only one win against a ranked team (season finale vs Virginia) with losses at Virginia, home against NC State, at Syracuse, home against Notre Dame, then in the ACC Tournament against North Carolina. Their defense is stout, but they are one of the more offensively challenged teams in the nation as they rank 130th in points per game and 211th in field goal percentage. UC Irvine will be a tougher matchup than people think, but I think the Cards at least get to a likely matchup against Northern Iowa. UNI should carry in momentum from a Missouri Valley Conference title and utilize Seth Tuttle all the way to the Sweet 16, ending Louisville's disappointing season.
Bold Prediction: No First Round Upsets
The lower seeded teams just don't interest me. Irvine will make things interesting, but Louisville's talent and Rick Pitino's coaching should win out. The 8-9 matchups are usually a toss up, but LSU is a sloppy team and NC State finished the year strong after a horrific month of January. Georgia is a team that wins the games they are supposed to, but loses the ones against the top teams. Going up against a Tom Izzo Michigan State team in the NCAA Tournament is not the best draw for the Bulldogs.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 8
While it is not a deep region, the teams at the top are really good. Villanova, like fellow Big East member Providence has achieved possibly the quietest 32-2 record ever. They haven't lost since January 19th and have since racked up eight wins against teams in the field of 64. You could argue that Virginia deserves to be a number one seed and will likely play like one with guard Justin Anderson getting healthier. Their opening round glorified scrimmage against Belmont should help get him back into his groove. Northern Iowa will be a popular sleeper Final Four pick, and even my underachieving pick Louisville could defend its way deep into the tournament. The seventh seeded Spartans and eighth seeded Wolfpack will give the two top seeds a run for their money in the second round.
Winner Of Region: Virginia
If Justin Anderson gets back into the flow of things, this is a team that could reach the Final Four and beyond. They are right there with Kentucky when discussing the best defensive team in the nation, and play efficient, though not very exciting, offense. Being a two seed should actually help Virginia as I think they have an easier path to the regional final than the top seeded Wildcats. The only game I'm worried about, and a game that could be one of the best in the entire tourney, is a potential second round game against Michigan State. Tom Izzo's success in tournaments is well known, and his Spartans are coming off an impressive three game stretch in the Big Ten Tournament, beating Ohio State, Maryland, and then losing the title to Wisconsin even though they had the game in hand. I'm nervous about putting UVA in the Final Four because they could be out before the second weekend of the tournament, but I think they squeeze by the Spartans. The Cavaliers are one of only a handful of teams that I think could beat Kentucky.
Matty O
Villanova, Louisiana Lafayette, North Carolina State, LSU, Northern Iowa, Wyoming, Louisville, UC Irvine, Providence, Boise State/Dayton, Oklahoma, Albany, Michigan State, Georgia, Virginia, Belmont
Team That Will Overachieve: Providence
Providence, and the Big East as a whole, has flown under the radar this year. Their best win was in early February in Georgetown, and they played Villanova tough in the Big East Tournament before falling by two. They get a favorable draw on opening weekend with a game against either Boise State or Dayton, followed by a likely matchup with Oklahoma. Neither play-in team scares me, and Oklahoma hasn't won a significant game away from Norman since beating Texas back in early January. Since then, they lost at West Virginia, at Kansas, at Baylor, at Kansas State, at Iowa State, then at a neutral site in the Big 12 Tournament to Iowa State again. I think Providence rides Kris Dunn, one of the best points guards in the country, to the Sweet 16.
Team That Will Underachieve: Louisville
Some might argue that they have already underachieved quite a bit this year. They've played at a good level this year, but not an elite level, especially since kicking Chris Jones off the team. Since early February, they have only one win against a ranked team (season finale vs Virginia) with losses at Virginia, home against NC State, at Syracuse, home against Notre Dame, then in the ACC Tournament against North Carolina. Their defense is stout, but they are one of the more offensively challenged teams in the nation as they rank 130th in points per game and 211th in field goal percentage. UC Irvine will be a tougher matchup than people think, but I think the Cards at least get to a likely matchup against Northern Iowa. UNI should carry in momentum from a Missouri Valley Conference title and utilize Seth Tuttle all the way to the Sweet 16, ending Louisville's disappointing season.
Bold Prediction: No First Round Upsets
The lower seeded teams just don't interest me. Irvine will make things interesting, but Louisville's talent and Rick Pitino's coaching should win out. The 8-9 matchups are usually a toss up, but LSU is a sloppy team and NC State finished the year strong after a horrific month of January. Georgia is a team that wins the games they are supposed to, but loses the ones against the top teams. Going up against a Tom Izzo Michigan State team in the NCAA Tournament is not the best draw for the Bulldogs.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 8
While it is not a deep region, the teams at the top are really good. Villanova, like fellow Big East member Providence has achieved possibly the quietest 32-2 record ever. They haven't lost since January 19th and have since racked up eight wins against teams in the field of 64. You could argue that Virginia deserves to be a number one seed and will likely play like one with guard Justin Anderson getting healthier. Their opening round glorified scrimmage against Belmont should help get him back into his groove. Northern Iowa will be a popular sleeper Final Four pick, and even my underachieving pick Louisville could defend its way deep into the tournament. The seventh seeded Spartans and eighth seeded Wolfpack will give the two top seeds a run for their money in the second round.
Winner Of Region: Virginia
If Justin Anderson gets back into the flow of things, this is a team that could reach the Final Four and beyond. They are right there with Kentucky when discussing the best defensive team in the nation, and play efficient, though not very exciting, offense. Being a two seed should actually help Virginia as I think they have an easier path to the regional final than the top seeded Wildcats. The only game I'm worried about, and a game that could be one of the best in the entire tourney, is a potential second round game against Michigan State. Tom Izzo's success in tournaments is well known, and his Spartans are coming off an impressive three game stretch in the Big Ten Tournament, beating Ohio State, Maryland, and then losing the title to Wisconsin even though they had the game in hand. I'm nervous about putting UVA in the Final Four because they could be out before the second weekend of the tournament, but I think they squeeze by the Spartans. The Cavaliers are one of only a handful of teams that I think could beat Kentucky.
Matty O
Sunday, March 15, 2015
2015 Regional Breakdown: Midwest
Participants
Kentucky, Hampton/Manhattan, Cincinnati, Purdue, West Virginia, Buffalo, Maryland, Valparaiso, Butler, Texas, Notre Dame, Northeastern, Wichita State, Indiana, Kansas, New Mexico State
Team That Will Overachieve: Wichita State
WSU got a favorable and exciting draw. Their opening game matches them up against an Indiana team that hasn't beaten a ranked team since January 22nd against Maryland. Since that game, they have gone 5-9 and limped to the finish. WSU certainly didn't leave a good taste in their mouth either after getting upset by Illinois State in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Still, they are only two games removed from a beat down of fellow MVC tournament participant Northern Iowa. I think they win comfortably over Indiana, and get the matchup against Kansas they have been craving. WSU has claimed that Kansas is afraid to face their instate rival because KU doesn't want to lose to a mid-major. This will give the Shockers a great stage to make a statement and have bragging rights in the state of Kansas for a year. I see it as an emotional game, with WSU pulling off the upset and advancing to the Sweet 16.
Team That Will Underachieve: Maryland
In 2015, Maryland was a lingerer in the top 25 rankings. They built up their ranking with a win against Iowa State early in the year, but really didn't do too much else after that. They were extremely lucky with the Big Ten schedule as they only had to face Wisconsin and Ohio State once during the regular season. They split those games, beating Wisconsin in College Park by 6, but getting obliterated by 24 points in Columbus. They lost in the Big Ten Tournament to Michigan State, and had Big Ten losses at Iowa, at Indiana, and at Illinois (Whoo!). Valparaiso won the Horizon League regular season and tournament titles, and I think they stun Maryland in the opening round.
Bold Prediction: Kentucky Wins Each Of Their Games In This Region By At Least 15 Points
This is really the Kentucky Region, not the Midwest Region. Every week people tried to come up with ways that Kentucky might lose any given night. While the SEC wasn't a daunting conference this year, UK always got each team's best shot. Each and every night, they fought back the challenges, often times in dominating fashion. They are arguably the best defensive team in America (Virginia is a close second) and have improved offensively throughout the year. No team in their region matches up well with them so I think they cruise every single game.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 6
Everyone not named Kentucky will think it's a difficult region because they have to face the Wildcats to reach the Final Four. I only have one double digit seed winning in the first round (13 Valpo), only to be dispatched the following game. WSU shouldn't really be considered a sleeper so their inclusion into the Sweet 16 isn't too much of a stretch. Even if this region goes chalk and all the high seeds win, I still think UK cruises through this rather bland region.
Winner Of Region: Kentucky
Was there any doubt? Kentucky plays the winner of the Manhattan/Hampton play-in game. I truly believe that if Manhattan and Hampton were to combine their stating fives and play 10 on five versus Kentucky, that Kentucky would still win. UK is at the point where, they would have to play at around 60% and their opponent would have to play the best game of their season in order to have a chance of knocking them off. It would, and should, be considered a monumental upset if they do not reach the Final Four.
Upcoming Regional Breakdowns
Monday - East
Tuesday - South
Wednesday - West & Final Four
Matty O
Kentucky, Hampton/Manhattan, Cincinnati, Purdue, West Virginia, Buffalo, Maryland, Valparaiso, Butler, Texas, Notre Dame, Northeastern, Wichita State, Indiana, Kansas, New Mexico State
Team That Will Overachieve: Wichita State
WSU got a favorable and exciting draw. Their opening game matches them up against an Indiana team that hasn't beaten a ranked team since January 22nd against Maryland. Since that game, they have gone 5-9 and limped to the finish. WSU certainly didn't leave a good taste in their mouth either after getting upset by Illinois State in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Still, they are only two games removed from a beat down of fellow MVC tournament participant Northern Iowa. I think they win comfortably over Indiana, and get the matchup against Kansas they have been craving. WSU has claimed that Kansas is afraid to face their instate rival because KU doesn't want to lose to a mid-major. This will give the Shockers a great stage to make a statement and have bragging rights in the state of Kansas for a year. I see it as an emotional game, with WSU pulling off the upset and advancing to the Sweet 16.
Team That Will Underachieve: Maryland
In 2015, Maryland was a lingerer in the top 25 rankings. They built up their ranking with a win against Iowa State early in the year, but really didn't do too much else after that. They were extremely lucky with the Big Ten schedule as they only had to face Wisconsin and Ohio State once during the regular season. They split those games, beating Wisconsin in College Park by 6, but getting obliterated by 24 points in Columbus. They lost in the Big Ten Tournament to Michigan State, and had Big Ten losses at Iowa, at Indiana, and at Illinois (Whoo!). Valparaiso won the Horizon League regular season and tournament titles, and I think they stun Maryland in the opening round.
Bold Prediction: Kentucky Wins Each Of Their Games In This Region By At Least 15 Points
This is really the Kentucky Region, not the Midwest Region. Every week people tried to come up with ways that Kentucky might lose any given night. While the SEC wasn't a daunting conference this year, UK always got each team's best shot. Each and every night, they fought back the challenges, often times in dominating fashion. They are arguably the best defensive team in America (Virginia is a close second) and have improved offensively throughout the year. No team in their region matches up well with them so I think they cruise every single game.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 6
Everyone not named Kentucky will think it's a difficult region because they have to face the Wildcats to reach the Final Four. I only have one double digit seed winning in the first round (13 Valpo), only to be dispatched the following game. WSU shouldn't really be considered a sleeper so their inclusion into the Sweet 16 isn't too much of a stretch. Even if this region goes chalk and all the high seeds win, I still think UK cruises through this rather bland region.
Winner Of Region: Kentucky
Was there any doubt? Kentucky plays the winner of the Manhattan/Hampton play-in game. I truly believe that if Manhattan and Hampton were to combine their stating fives and play 10 on five versus Kentucky, that Kentucky would still win. UK is at the point where, they would have to play at around 60% and their opponent would have to play the best game of their season in order to have a chance of knocking them off. It would, and should, be considered a monumental upset if they do not reach the Final Four.
Upcoming Regional Breakdowns
Monday - East
Tuesday - South
Wednesday - West & Final Four
Matty O
Thursday, March 12, 2015
Free Agent Frenzy
Prior to the official start of free agency, we knew that some marquee players were going to be on the move. We already knew Ndamukong Suh was going to Miami, Julius Thomas was going to Jacksonville, and LeSean McCoy and Kiko Alonso were switching teams. What we didn't know was the chaos that would ensue once the clock struck four o'clock eastern time on March 10th. Along with a number of notable releases and signings, there were also trades that completely blindsided those who keep up with the NFL. This post will analyze a couple of those trades, as well as review how teams did in building their teams in free agency so far.
Jimmy Graham Trade
This was the blockbuster that started everything off. Similar to the McCoy/Alonso trade, this trade came out of nowhere as the Saints sent their superstar Pro Bowl tight end and a fourth round draft pick, to the defending NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks for center Max Unger and a first round pick. I really like the trade for both sides as long as both Unger and Graham stay healthy (both battled injuries last year). From the Saints perspective, it is clear that they are trying to move towards a more balanced, if not run-heavy, offense. Quarterback Drew Brees is getting up there in age and he wasn't able to single handedly bring the Saints back in games last year like he could in the past. Mark Ingram had a pretty good year running the ball in 2014, and acquiring Unger was a great move if they want to go more smash mouth. While Graham has commanded triple digit targets each of the last four years, the Saints have some talented players to help make up for that. Marques Colston is still an above average receiver, and Kenny Stills and Brandin Cooks are two of the best young wide receivers in the game. Add in a possible Reggie Bush reunion coming out of the backfield, and I think the Saints will be okay when they do decide to throw.
From the Seahawks perspective, they acquire a matchup nightmare and someone that teams actually have to scheme against in the passing game. No one in the Seattle receiving corps should strike fear in anyone's heart, which enables teams to commit more to stopping the run with Marshawn Lynch. Graham's addition will be especially useful in goal line situations as the Hawks can split Graham out wide, have Russell Wilson read the defense, then either throw a lob to Graham or hand it off to Lynch in a thinned out box. Either option is attractive. For the record, however, even if they had Jimmy Graham, the Seahawks still should have run it in the Super Bowl. Just sayin'.
Sam Bradford Flip Flops With Nick Foles
The idea that "maybe all a player needs is a fresh start somewhere else," comes into play here. Each quarterback has serious questions, and each are, for now, being counted on to be the franchise QB for their new team. I've always been a Bradford fan and have long touted him in fantasy football. His injury history goes all the way back to college, but when he can stay healthy, he is certainly talented. He has only played two full NFL seasons (2010 and 2012), but at least improved during those two years. He threw for more yards, three more TDs, and two less interceptions in 2012 than he did in 2010. He played in a shotgun spread offense in college at Oklahoma, and will see something similar in Philly. While Chip Kelly brags that his sport science people can keep Bradford healthy, it is important to note that quarterbacks Nick Foles and Michael Vick have gotten hurt during Kelly's regime. If Bradford goes down, it's back to, gulp, Mark Sanchez.
While Foles did get injured last year, durability hasn't really been a question mark for him. The question surrounding Foles is how good he actually is? The Foles hype gained a lot of momentum when Vick was struggling at QB and, eventually, got injured. Foles had one of the best runs a QB has ever had in 2013, as he had a 27 to 2 touchdown to interception ratio in 13 games. His numbers were much worse in 2014 though, as he had a 13 to 10 TD to INT ratio in just eight games. He also had DeSean Jackson in 2013, Jeremy Maclin in 2014, and LeSean McCoy both years. The St. Louis Rams can't touch that talent. Running back Tre Mason is emerging, but their wide receiver corps is up in the air. I have no doubt that they'll draft a WR high in this year's draft, but that is still a downgrade in talent for Foles. Ram fans are hoping Foles does not bring about the same disappointment that Bradford did.
Dictator Kelly
I commented on how Chip Kelly is set on doing things his own way in my post on the McCoy trade, but he has gone even further. His most recent splash came in signing former Cowboy running back DeMarco Murray along with former Charger running back Ryan Mathews. While both have talent, both, like almost every other player Kelly has brought in, have injury histories. Murray hadn't played a full 16 games until last year, and was subsequently run into the ground by the Cowboys to the tune of 392 rushing attempts. Mathews has also only played one full NFL season (2013), never scored more than seven TDs in a single season, and consistently left Charger fans wanting more as he was touted as LaDamian Tomlinson's successor. Considering recently released Eagle cornerback Cary Williams complained this year about practices being too demanding, I'm not so sure two oft injured running backs with one coming off 392 attempts are the recipe to success.
Chip's defensive moves at least make a little more sense. His big name move was getting cornerback Byron Maxwell from the Seattle Seahawks. I had criticized Kelly in my last post for going after a linebacker instead of a secondary player, so he clearly knew that had to be addressed in some way. The NFC East has three elite wide receivers (Dez Bryant, DeSean Jackson, Odell Beckham Jr.) so this was a logical move. An under the radar move was acquiring cornerback Walter Thurmond III from the Giants. He also played for the Seattle Seahawks prior to 2014, and was on their Super Bowl winning squad. He got shipped to the Giants in 2014 and got injured in Week 2. He fits the Kelly mold to a tee. Injured last year? Check. Bargain? Check. Played college ball at Oregon? Check. If those two can mesh, it will address a major weakness from last year.
Best Line In The NFL
While some people might debate this, I believe that with the signing of Ndamukong Suh, that the Miami Dolphins have the best defensive line in football and it is not even close. With Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon flanking Suh, the Dolphins should create havoc up front this year. Wake, a four time Pro-Bowler, recorded 11 1/2 sacks last year and terrorized the best QB in his division, Tom Brady. Vernon, who is often overshadowed by Wake, recorded six and a half sacks last year and has yet to miss a game in his three year career. Add in Suh, who can stop the run and brings over eight and a half 2014 sacks of his own, and you have a nightmare of a line. Even with below average linebackers, I think this defense can become elite simply because of the three monsters up front. Every non-Patriot AFC East team has been active this offseason, and the Suh signing could be the cornerstone for the Dolphins to finally knock the Pats from their perch.
New England Up To Old Tricks
Unlike Chip Kelly who has zero credibility yet in the NFL, Bill Belichick has earned the benefit of the doubt. The problem is that there is a lot of doubt building up. The Pats have already let their two starting, elite cornerbacks go (Brandon Browner, Darrelle Revis) and a crucial member of the backfield in Shane Vereen. Vereen isn't your typical three down back, but he is one of, if not the best, in catching passes out of the backfield. The Pats don't win the Super Bowl if Vereen isn't the reliable check down option that he was, as he hauled in 11 catches. While keeping Revis would have been a financial stretch, I thought the Pats would at least keep Browner. Instead, they let the physical corner sign with the New Orleans Saints. I'm sure Belichick has something up his sleeve, but there can't be a lot of excitement in Boston right now. Even with the credibility that Belichick has earned, giving up two elite corners and one of Brady's best check down options who consistently gets matched up against a linebacker, put the Pats in a worse position on paper. I had the same kind of doubt after the Kansas City debacle last year though, and look how that turned out. One of these years though, I have a feeling that the idea that system is everything and players can be replaced will eventually fail and cause the Pats to fall flat on their face.
Quarterback Uncertainty
One thing free agency has taught me so far is how desperate teams are for quarterbacks. I don't mean good quarterbacks, I mean any quarterback. When teams are happy to sign Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown, you know times are tough. Looking at the current state of all NFL teams and their QBs, the majority of them either have a quarterback that has significant concerns, or they don't have a quarterback at all. Take the AFC East for example. One of the reasons why New England has enjoyed so much success lately is because the teams in their division (Jets, Dolphins, Bills) have all missed wildly on quarterback. The Jets just made a move to bring in Ryan Fitzpatrick to start over/backup Geno Smith. Rex Ryan must believe that Matt Cassel is worth a darn as he actually traded away a draft pick to get him to Buffalo. The 'Phins have Ryan Tannehill who hasn't been terrible, but certainly hasn't lived up to his eighth overall draft pick.
This graveyard of quarterback talent is one of the reasons why it was wise for teams like the Bears with Jay Cutler to hold serve and just kind of wait it out. So you get rid of Jay Cutler to sign Ryan Mallet. Congratulations, you just gave Aaron Rodgers another division title. I'm fairly concerned about the state of the quarterback position moving forward, especially once some of the older guys retire. A lot of the elite talent is getting up there in age (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees), and the only two young'uns who are carrying the load are Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck. Even the top two guys coming out this year (Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota) have legitimate concerns about their projected success in the NFL. The era of the QB might be gone faster than we realize.
Winner Of Free Agency So Far
As far as activity goes, you would obviously have to give it to the Eagles, but as a lot of people have said, no one knows what the heck Kelly is doing. With that in mind, I'll pick another team with green in its logo - the New York Jets. The Jets were 14th in the league in passing yards against last year, but also gave up the third most TDs, and were tied for last in interceptions. They decided to get the band back together, as they signed both Revis and Antonio Cromartie, both of whom excelled as a duo under Rex Ryan. New head coach Todd Bowles is a defensive whiz in his own right, so I expect this Jets defense to put up similar outstanding numbers that they did when Rex was head coach. Keep in mind that, despite the porous pass defense, the Jets run defense was very stout in 2014, finishing fifth in yards allowed. They're not losing anyone important, so expect this defense to be top five overall next year, possibly number one.
Similar to the defense, the Jet offense isn't losing anyone important either. Percy Harvin is a recognizable name, but he did very little for them last year in actual stats (350 yards, one TD). They still need a quarterback, but as I noted above, it's not like there's a gold mine of replacements out there. I'm guessing they draft one in the middle rounds and they give Geno Smith one last try. Running back is a question mark, but this years class is loaded with talent. They made the Brandon Marshall trade, which is still puzzling to me from both sides, but he certainly won't be a detriment to this offense. If this team makes noise in 2015, it will be because of their defense and special teams, which is fine. If they can find a rookie of the year QB or running back, however, the Patriots might want to look out.
Matty O
Jimmy Graham Trade
This was the blockbuster that started everything off. Similar to the McCoy/Alonso trade, this trade came out of nowhere as the Saints sent their superstar Pro Bowl tight end and a fourth round draft pick, to the defending NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks for center Max Unger and a first round pick. I really like the trade for both sides as long as both Unger and Graham stay healthy (both battled injuries last year). From the Saints perspective, it is clear that they are trying to move towards a more balanced, if not run-heavy, offense. Quarterback Drew Brees is getting up there in age and he wasn't able to single handedly bring the Saints back in games last year like he could in the past. Mark Ingram had a pretty good year running the ball in 2014, and acquiring Unger was a great move if they want to go more smash mouth. While Graham has commanded triple digit targets each of the last four years, the Saints have some talented players to help make up for that. Marques Colston is still an above average receiver, and Kenny Stills and Brandin Cooks are two of the best young wide receivers in the game. Add in a possible Reggie Bush reunion coming out of the backfield, and I think the Saints will be okay when they do decide to throw.
From the Seahawks perspective, they acquire a matchup nightmare and someone that teams actually have to scheme against in the passing game. No one in the Seattle receiving corps should strike fear in anyone's heart, which enables teams to commit more to stopping the run with Marshawn Lynch. Graham's addition will be especially useful in goal line situations as the Hawks can split Graham out wide, have Russell Wilson read the defense, then either throw a lob to Graham or hand it off to Lynch in a thinned out box. Either option is attractive. For the record, however, even if they had Jimmy Graham, the Seahawks still should have run it in the Super Bowl. Just sayin'.
Sam Bradford Flip Flops With Nick Foles
The idea that "maybe all a player needs is a fresh start somewhere else," comes into play here. Each quarterback has serious questions, and each are, for now, being counted on to be the franchise QB for their new team. I've always been a Bradford fan and have long touted him in fantasy football. His injury history goes all the way back to college, but when he can stay healthy, he is certainly talented. He has only played two full NFL seasons (2010 and 2012), but at least improved during those two years. He threw for more yards, three more TDs, and two less interceptions in 2012 than he did in 2010. He played in a shotgun spread offense in college at Oklahoma, and will see something similar in Philly. While Chip Kelly brags that his sport science people can keep Bradford healthy, it is important to note that quarterbacks Nick Foles and Michael Vick have gotten hurt during Kelly's regime. If Bradford goes down, it's back to, gulp, Mark Sanchez.
While Foles did get injured last year, durability hasn't really been a question mark for him. The question surrounding Foles is how good he actually is? The Foles hype gained a lot of momentum when Vick was struggling at QB and, eventually, got injured. Foles had one of the best runs a QB has ever had in 2013, as he had a 27 to 2 touchdown to interception ratio in 13 games. His numbers were much worse in 2014 though, as he had a 13 to 10 TD to INT ratio in just eight games. He also had DeSean Jackson in 2013, Jeremy Maclin in 2014, and LeSean McCoy both years. The St. Louis Rams can't touch that talent. Running back Tre Mason is emerging, but their wide receiver corps is up in the air. I have no doubt that they'll draft a WR high in this year's draft, but that is still a downgrade in talent for Foles. Ram fans are hoping Foles does not bring about the same disappointment that Bradford did.
Dictator Kelly
I commented on how Chip Kelly is set on doing things his own way in my post on the McCoy trade, but he has gone even further. His most recent splash came in signing former Cowboy running back DeMarco Murray along with former Charger running back Ryan Mathews. While both have talent, both, like almost every other player Kelly has brought in, have injury histories. Murray hadn't played a full 16 games until last year, and was subsequently run into the ground by the Cowboys to the tune of 392 rushing attempts. Mathews has also only played one full NFL season (2013), never scored more than seven TDs in a single season, and consistently left Charger fans wanting more as he was touted as LaDamian Tomlinson's successor. Considering recently released Eagle cornerback Cary Williams complained this year about practices being too demanding, I'm not so sure two oft injured running backs with one coming off 392 attempts are the recipe to success.
Chip's defensive moves at least make a little more sense. His big name move was getting cornerback Byron Maxwell from the Seattle Seahawks. I had criticized Kelly in my last post for going after a linebacker instead of a secondary player, so he clearly knew that had to be addressed in some way. The NFC East has three elite wide receivers (Dez Bryant, DeSean Jackson, Odell Beckham Jr.) so this was a logical move. An under the radar move was acquiring cornerback Walter Thurmond III from the Giants. He also played for the Seattle Seahawks prior to 2014, and was on their Super Bowl winning squad. He got shipped to the Giants in 2014 and got injured in Week 2. He fits the Kelly mold to a tee. Injured last year? Check. Bargain? Check. Played college ball at Oregon? Check. If those two can mesh, it will address a major weakness from last year.
Best Line In The NFL
While some people might debate this, I believe that with the signing of Ndamukong Suh, that the Miami Dolphins have the best defensive line in football and it is not even close. With Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon flanking Suh, the Dolphins should create havoc up front this year. Wake, a four time Pro-Bowler, recorded 11 1/2 sacks last year and terrorized the best QB in his division, Tom Brady. Vernon, who is often overshadowed by Wake, recorded six and a half sacks last year and has yet to miss a game in his three year career. Add in Suh, who can stop the run and brings over eight and a half 2014 sacks of his own, and you have a nightmare of a line. Even with below average linebackers, I think this defense can become elite simply because of the three monsters up front. Every non-Patriot AFC East team has been active this offseason, and the Suh signing could be the cornerstone for the Dolphins to finally knock the Pats from their perch.
New England Up To Old Tricks
Unlike Chip Kelly who has zero credibility yet in the NFL, Bill Belichick has earned the benefit of the doubt. The problem is that there is a lot of doubt building up. The Pats have already let their two starting, elite cornerbacks go (Brandon Browner, Darrelle Revis) and a crucial member of the backfield in Shane Vereen. Vereen isn't your typical three down back, but he is one of, if not the best, in catching passes out of the backfield. The Pats don't win the Super Bowl if Vereen isn't the reliable check down option that he was, as he hauled in 11 catches. While keeping Revis would have been a financial stretch, I thought the Pats would at least keep Browner. Instead, they let the physical corner sign with the New Orleans Saints. I'm sure Belichick has something up his sleeve, but there can't be a lot of excitement in Boston right now. Even with the credibility that Belichick has earned, giving up two elite corners and one of Brady's best check down options who consistently gets matched up against a linebacker, put the Pats in a worse position on paper. I had the same kind of doubt after the Kansas City debacle last year though, and look how that turned out. One of these years though, I have a feeling that the idea that system is everything and players can be replaced will eventually fail and cause the Pats to fall flat on their face.
Quarterback Uncertainty
One thing free agency has taught me so far is how desperate teams are for quarterbacks. I don't mean good quarterbacks, I mean any quarterback. When teams are happy to sign Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown, you know times are tough. Looking at the current state of all NFL teams and their QBs, the majority of them either have a quarterback that has significant concerns, or they don't have a quarterback at all. Take the AFC East for example. One of the reasons why New England has enjoyed so much success lately is because the teams in their division (Jets, Dolphins, Bills) have all missed wildly on quarterback. The Jets just made a move to bring in Ryan Fitzpatrick to start over/backup Geno Smith. Rex Ryan must believe that Matt Cassel is worth a darn as he actually traded away a draft pick to get him to Buffalo. The 'Phins have Ryan Tannehill who hasn't been terrible, but certainly hasn't lived up to his eighth overall draft pick.
This graveyard of quarterback talent is one of the reasons why it was wise for teams like the Bears with Jay Cutler to hold serve and just kind of wait it out. So you get rid of Jay Cutler to sign Ryan Mallet. Congratulations, you just gave Aaron Rodgers another division title. I'm fairly concerned about the state of the quarterback position moving forward, especially once some of the older guys retire. A lot of the elite talent is getting up there in age (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees), and the only two young'uns who are carrying the load are Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck. Even the top two guys coming out this year (Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota) have legitimate concerns about their projected success in the NFL. The era of the QB might be gone faster than we realize.
Winner Of Free Agency So Far
As far as activity goes, you would obviously have to give it to the Eagles, but as a lot of people have said, no one knows what the heck Kelly is doing. With that in mind, I'll pick another team with green in its logo - the New York Jets. The Jets were 14th in the league in passing yards against last year, but also gave up the third most TDs, and were tied for last in interceptions. They decided to get the band back together, as they signed both Revis and Antonio Cromartie, both of whom excelled as a duo under Rex Ryan. New head coach Todd Bowles is a defensive whiz in his own right, so I expect this Jets defense to put up similar outstanding numbers that they did when Rex was head coach. Keep in mind that, despite the porous pass defense, the Jets run defense was very stout in 2014, finishing fifth in yards allowed. They're not losing anyone important, so expect this defense to be top five overall next year, possibly number one.
Similar to the defense, the Jet offense isn't losing anyone important either. Percy Harvin is a recognizable name, but he did very little for them last year in actual stats (350 yards, one TD). They still need a quarterback, but as I noted above, it's not like there's a gold mine of replacements out there. I'm guessing they draft one in the middle rounds and they give Geno Smith one last try. Running back is a question mark, but this years class is loaded with talent. They made the Brandon Marshall trade, which is still puzzling to me from both sides, but he certainly won't be a detriment to this offense. If this team makes noise in 2015, it will be because of their defense and special teams, which is fine. If they can find a rookie of the year QB or running back, however, the Patriots might want to look out.
Matty O
Saturday, March 7, 2015
Two Surprising NFL Trades
RB LeSean McCoy traded from Eagles to Bills
LB Kiko Alonso traded from Bills to Eagles
This was a stunner. Normally before a trade happens, there are at least rumblings about the two teams involved, or at least about a team shopping a player. Adam Schefter will usually inform the public that, "according to his sources, Team A has interest in trading away so and so." There were no hints until the trade was announced. As a Cowboys fan, I was happy this trade happened as I think the Eagles will come out on the losing end of this trade. For starters, I think they could have gotten more than just Alonso from the Bills. Alonso had a heck of a rookie season in 2013, but missed all of last year with a torn ACL. McCoy on the other hand, hasn't missed a game since 2012 and is just one year removed from winning the NFL Rushing Title by almost 300 yards. Even in a "down" year in 2014, he still finished third in the league in rushing yards with 1,319. The Eagles should've been able to squeeze at least one or two draft picks out of the Bills.
Determining who wins and loses this deal will all come down to whether Chip Kelly's master plan is going to work. It seems as though he is getting rid of anyone who doesn't fit his system, regardless of who they are and what they have done in the past, in order to handpick his entire roster. McCoy does clear up quite a bit of cap space, allowing Kelly to shop around for his kind of running back once free agency begins. Some people are making a big deal about the fact that he has nine ex-Oregon players on his roster, but that is to be expected. He wants to get as close to what Kelly's Oregon teams looked like in the pros, and there are very few colleges that run their team at the same break neck speed Oregon does. Some get close, but most can't match (Auburn is probably the closest thing).
The other thing I find puzzling from the Eagles side of things is the position that they acquired. Alonso played under Kelly at Oregon so that probably factored a bit into it, but linebacker wasn't really the problem last year. Their secondary got absolutely smoked in 2014. They finished 31st out of 32 teams and lost some crucial games because of that porous defense. When they played the Packers, both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb went over 100 yards receiving. In the second game against Dallas, when the Eagles were still in the race for the NFC East, they allowed Dez Bryant to go bananas for 114 yards on six catches and three TDs. Alonso, if he stays healthy, will make this Eagles defense, or any defense for that matter, better as a whole. In a division with Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham, Jr., and DeSean Jackson, however, I thought their secondary should have been priority numero uno.
The Bills side of things is much clearer. It was not surprising at all that new head coach Rex Ryan made an aggressive move for a top level RB. Rex has always built his teams around running the football and playing solid defense. Fred Jackson is getting up there in age and CJ Spiller cannot handle the workloads that Rex would demand from him. While they did lose a playmaker on defense, consider that they were fourth in the NFL last year in total defense, as Alonso watched from the sidelines. Considering the Bills ranked 25th in team rushing yards, the addition of McCoy should help more than the loss of Alonso hurts.
The only two concerns I have is that the Philly offensive line was much better than what the Bills have now, and the run defenses in the AFC East are much better compared to those in the NFC East. I'm sure that Rex has a plan to address the line situation in either free agency or the draft. The opposing run defenses, however, will probably still be stout. Last year, the Jets (5th), Patriots (9th), and Dolphins (24th) were stronger collectively than the Cowboys (8th), Redskins (12th), and Giants (30th). Also, and most Cowboy fans know this, that lofty eighth ranking for the Boys was simply because they weren't on the field that often, not because they were actually good at stopping the run. When you look at yards per attempt allowed, everyone's ranking stays about the same, but the Cowboys go from 8th to 16th. McCoy will have a harder time finding open running room, but I think the increased volume and commitment to the run should help make up for it.
WR Brandon Marshall traded from Bears to Jets
5th Round Pick traded from Jets to Bears
Unlike the Kiko/McCoy trade, there were rumblings early on in the day about Marshall being traded. I was surprised, however, when the Jets were the team they traded with. I can't say I'm in love with the trade from either side. While the Jets may have gotten a tall, top 20 WR in Marshall, they still don't have a quarterback. Marshall joins a WR corps of Eric Decker and Percy Harvin, though Harvin is likely to be released. Two big, strong WRs are great, but not if the guy taking the snaps can't get them the ball. The Tampa Bay Bucs had two big, strong WRs last year in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. With no QB, however, the Bucs finished 25th in the league in total passing and "earned" the number one overall draft pick.
A silver lining for the Jets is that Marshall has still been able to put up good numbers with non-Jay Cutler QBs. Marshall stayed in Denver one year longer than Cutler and topped 100 receptions, racked up 1120 yards, and 10 TDs with Kyle Orton. He was then traded to Miami, where he spent two years catching passes from Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen, and Matt Moore. Despite that hilarious trio of QBs, he still put up over 1,000 yards each season and caught at least 80 passes. Geno Smith is no Joe Montana, but I have seen him be better than Henne, Thigpen, and Moore. Marshall will help whoever is signal calling for the Jets next year, I'm just not sure to what extent.
For the Bears, the reasons for trading away Marshall at least make sense. Marshall struggled with injuries last year and put up his lowest yardage and reception totals since his rookie season. He is an outspoken player and, with a new regime in town, sometimes you have to remove those players so the new voices of the coaching staff can be heard. Also, like Kelly and the Eagles, it clears up cap space so John Fox and the Bears can build the team they want to. The problem is that I thought Marshall was one of the brighter spots for the Bears last year. Yes, he had a locker room outburst after the Miami game, but I thought that was a good thing to call out his teammates. They were 3-4 after that Miami loss, and had just gotten embarrassed by the Dolphins in Soldier Field. The Bears put up 224 yards of total offense that game, and running back Matt Forte was the leading receiver with 60 yards. Someone had to say something, and Marshall just happened to be that guy.
Thankfully for the Bears, they still have Alshon Jeffery who is a monster of a receiver and should start to get even more targets now that Marshall is gone (fantasy footballers should be excited). This year's WR class is also fairly deep, so if the Bears wish to go that route, then the opportunity is certainly there. The main thing that should bother Bears fans is that they only got a fifth round pick. Marshall did have a down year last year, but prior to 2014, he had seven consecutive seasons of at least 1,000 yards. He's 30 years old which is a concern for running backs, but receivers usually have a longer shelf life. Another thing to consider is that the Bears haven't exactly struck gold in the fifth round. Since 2005, their fifth round picks have been Airese Currie (2005), Mark Anderson (2006), Kevin Payne (2007), Corey Graham (2007), Zackary Bowman (2008), Kellen Davis (2008), Johnny Knox (2009), Marcus Freeman (2009), Joshua Moore (2010), Nathan Enderle (2011), and Jordan Mills (2013). Maybe they can find their guy this year.
Like the NFL Draft, we'll really never know if any of these four teams got it right. Maybe the Eagles become the number one ranked defense next year. Maybe McCoy wins another rushing title and gets the Bills to the playoffs. Maybe Marshall and Decker help a young QB muscle their way to relevancy. Maybe the Bears find a QB to replace Cutler in the fifth round. Who knows? What I do know is that moves like these can make or break careers. You'll either be touted as a genius for having the foresight to know what your team needs, or you'll be ridiculed for making such a risky move, and have to look for a new job sooner rather than later.
Matty O
LB Kiko Alonso traded from Bills to Eagles
This was a stunner. Normally before a trade happens, there are at least rumblings about the two teams involved, or at least about a team shopping a player. Adam Schefter will usually inform the public that, "according to his sources, Team A has interest in trading away so and so." There were no hints until the trade was announced. As a Cowboys fan, I was happy this trade happened as I think the Eagles will come out on the losing end of this trade. For starters, I think they could have gotten more than just Alonso from the Bills. Alonso had a heck of a rookie season in 2013, but missed all of last year with a torn ACL. McCoy on the other hand, hasn't missed a game since 2012 and is just one year removed from winning the NFL Rushing Title by almost 300 yards. Even in a "down" year in 2014, he still finished third in the league in rushing yards with 1,319. The Eagles should've been able to squeeze at least one or two draft picks out of the Bills.
Determining who wins and loses this deal will all come down to whether Chip Kelly's master plan is going to work. It seems as though he is getting rid of anyone who doesn't fit his system, regardless of who they are and what they have done in the past, in order to handpick his entire roster. McCoy does clear up quite a bit of cap space, allowing Kelly to shop around for his kind of running back once free agency begins. Some people are making a big deal about the fact that he has nine ex-Oregon players on his roster, but that is to be expected. He wants to get as close to what Kelly's Oregon teams looked like in the pros, and there are very few colleges that run their team at the same break neck speed Oregon does. Some get close, but most can't match (Auburn is probably the closest thing).
The other thing I find puzzling from the Eagles side of things is the position that they acquired. Alonso played under Kelly at Oregon so that probably factored a bit into it, but linebacker wasn't really the problem last year. Their secondary got absolutely smoked in 2014. They finished 31st out of 32 teams and lost some crucial games because of that porous defense. When they played the Packers, both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb went over 100 yards receiving. In the second game against Dallas, when the Eagles were still in the race for the NFC East, they allowed Dez Bryant to go bananas for 114 yards on six catches and three TDs. Alonso, if he stays healthy, will make this Eagles defense, or any defense for that matter, better as a whole. In a division with Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham, Jr., and DeSean Jackson, however, I thought their secondary should have been priority numero uno.
The Bills side of things is much clearer. It was not surprising at all that new head coach Rex Ryan made an aggressive move for a top level RB. Rex has always built his teams around running the football and playing solid defense. Fred Jackson is getting up there in age and CJ Spiller cannot handle the workloads that Rex would demand from him. While they did lose a playmaker on defense, consider that they were fourth in the NFL last year in total defense, as Alonso watched from the sidelines. Considering the Bills ranked 25th in team rushing yards, the addition of McCoy should help more than the loss of Alonso hurts.
The only two concerns I have is that the Philly offensive line was much better than what the Bills have now, and the run defenses in the AFC East are much better compared to those in the NFC East. I'm sure that Rex has a plan to address the line situation in either free agency or the draft. The opposing run defenses, however, will probably still be stout. Last year, the Jets (5th), Patriots (9th), and Dolphins (24th) were stronger collectively than the Cowboys (8th), Redskins (12th), and Giants (30th). Also, and most Cowboy fans know this, that lofty eighth ranking for the Boys was simply because they weren't on the field that often, not because they were actually good at stopping the run. When you look at yards per attempt allowed, everyone's ranking stays about the same, but the Cowboys go from 8th to 16th. McCoy will have a harder time finding open running room, but I think the increased volume and commitment to the run should help make up for it.
WR Brandon Marshall traded from Bears to Jets
5th Round Pick traded from Jets to Bears
Unlike the Kiko/McCoy trade, there were rumblings early on in the day about Marshall being traded. I was surprised, however, when the Jets were the team they traded with. I can't say I'm in love with the trade from either side. While the Jets may have gotten a tall, top 20 WR in Marshall, they still don't have a quarterback. Marshall joins a WR corps of Eric Decker and Percy Harvin, though Harvin is likely to be released. Two big, strong WRs are great, but not if the guy taking the snaps can't get them the ball. The Tampa Bay Bucs had two big, strong WRs last year in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. With no QB, however, the Bucs finished 25th in the league in total passing and "earned" the number one overall draft pick.
A silver lining for the Jets is that Marshall has still been able to put up good numbers with non-Jay Cutler QBs. Marshall stayed in Denver one year longer than Cutler and topped 100 receptions, racked up 1120 yards, and 10 TDs with Kyle Orton. He was then traded to Miami, where he spent two years catching passes from Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen, and Matt Moore. Despite that hilarious trio of QBs, he still put up over 1,000 yards each season and caught at least 80 passes. Geno Smith is no Joe Montana, but I have seen him be better than Henne, Thigpen, and Moore. Marshall will help whoever is signal calling for the Jets next year, I'm just not sure to what extent.
For the Bears, the reasons for trading away Marshall at least make sense. Marshall struggled with injuries last year and put up his lowest yardage and reception totals since his rookie season. He is an outspoken player and, with a new regime in town, sometimes you have to remove those players so the new voices of the coaching staff can be heard. Also, like Kelly and the Eagles, it clears up cap space so John Fox and the Bears can build the team they want to. The problem is that I thought Marshall was one of the brighter spots for the Bears last year. Yes, he had a locker room outburst after the Miami game, but I thought that was a good thing to call out his teammates. They were 3-4 after that Miami loss, and had just gotten embarrassed by the Dolphins in Soldier Field. The Bears put up 224 yards of total offense that game, and running back Matt Forte was the leading receiver with 60 yards. Someone had to say something, and Marshall just happened to be that guy.
Thankfully for the Bears, they still have Alshon Jeffery who is a monster of a receiver and should start to get even more targets now that Marshall is gone (fantasy footballers should be excited). This year's WR class is also fairly deep, so if the Bears wish to go that route, then the opportunity is certainly there. The main thing that should bother Bears fans is that they only got a fifth round pick. Marshall did have a down year last year, but prior to 2014, he had seven consecutive seasons of at least 1,000 yards. He's 30 years old which is a concern for running backs, but receivers usually have a longer shelf life. Another thing to consider is that the Bears haven't exactly struck gold in the fifth round. Since 2005, their fifth round picks have been Airese Currie (2005), Mark Anderson (2006), Kevin Payne (2007), Corey Graham (2007), Zackary Bowman (2008), Kellen Davis (2008), Johnny Knox (2009), Marcus Freeman (2009), Joshua Moore (2010), Nathan Enderle (2011), and Jordan Mills (2013). Maybe they can find their guy this year.
Like the NFL Draft, we'll really never know if any of these four teams got it right. Maybe the Eagles become the number one ranked defense next year. Maybe McCoy wins another rushing title and gets the Bills to the playoffs. Maybe Marshall and Decker help a young QB muscle their way to relevancy. Maybe the Bears find a QB to replace Cutler in the fifth round. Who knows? What I do know is that moves like these can make or break careers. You'll either be touted as a genius for having the foresight to know what your team needs, or you'll be ridiculed for making such a risky move, and have to look for a new job sooner rather than later.
Matty O
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)