Kentucky vs anybody would not be good for the "anybody." UNC's depth will be neutralized in this game as Kentucky has even better depth. There is little, if any, drop off from Kentucky's starters to their subs that they bring in. Marcus Paige could still go off, but even that probably won't be enough. Kentucky is simply too deep, too balanced, and too good. Carolina keeps it close, but can't close it out in the end.
Virginia vs Gonzaga
This is your classic unstoppable force meets the immovable object. Virginia is first in the nation in points allowed, limiting opponents to just over 50 points per game. They dictate the tempo of the game and limit the pressure put on their average offense to score. The 'Zags meanwhile, rank 10th in points per game and first in field goal percentage. The 'Zags need to press the issue, similar to when Duke beat Virginia, and try to get a lot of fast break opportunities, even if they don't always convert those opportunities into points. If you let Virginia set up in their half court defense, even the 'Zags will find it hard to score. At this stage in the tourney, I'll take an elite defense over an elite offense any day of the week. Virginia's defense has been battle tested in a loaded ACC this year. With Justin Anderson fully back in the swing of things by this point, I think the Cavaliers pull it out.
Championship Game: Kentucky vs Virginia
If you believe in the adage that "offense wins games, defense wins championships," then this is the game for you. Virginia might be first in points allowed, but UK is right behind them in third and also are second in the nation in blocks per game. I think this is a defensive, grind-it-out kind of game, as neither of these teams have seen a defense quite like the one they will face in the title game. I'll still go with UK because their offense has improved and is certainly better than Virginia's. The Wildcats also possess the height and length advantage over Virginia. It will be a close, low-scoring game, but I think the Wildcats finish off their season as National Champions and undefeated.
Final Thoughts
Beware The Twos - Virginia, Gonzaga, and Arizona all could make a case to be one seeds. Kansas drew a tough matchup in the second round, but if Wichita falls in the first round, then the Jayhawks could make some noise.
Top Seed Tourney - While I have some upsets scattered around my bracket, I don't see any crazy deep runs by lower seeds. My Elite Eight has three number one seeds, two number twos, two number threes, and a four.
I Got A Feeling Upsets - There are always those upsets that happen where you can't explain them, but you just have a feeling that something fishy might happen. Here are a few that I have a bad feeling about, but I couldn't actually pull the trigger and put them in my bracket.
- Midwest - Buffalo over West Virginia, Texas over Butler, Wichita State over Notre Dame
- East - Northern Iowa over Villanova, UC Irvine over Louisville
- South - San Diego State over Duke, Davidson over Iowa
- West - Georgia State over Baylor, Ohio State over Arizona
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