Villanova, Louisiana Lafayette, North Carolina State, LSU, Northern Iowa, Wyoming, Louisville, UC Irvine, Providence, Boise State/Dayton, Oklahoma, Albany, Michigan State, Georgia, Virginia, Belmont
Team That Will Overachieve: Providence
Providence, and the Big East as a whole, has flown under the radar this year. Their best win was in early February in Georgetown, and they played Villanova tough in the Big East Tournament before falling by two. They get a favorable draw on opening weekend with a game against either Boise State or Dayton, followed by a likely matchup with Oklahoma. Neither play-in team scares me, and Oklahoma hasn't won a significant game away from Norman since beating Texas back in early January. Since then, they lost at West Virginia, at Kansas, at Baylor, at Kansas State, at Iowa State, then at a neutral site in the Big 12 Tournament to Iowa State again. I think Providence rides Kris Dunn, one of the best points guards in the country, to the Sweet 16.
Team That Will Underachieve: Louisville
Some might argue that they have already underachieved quite a bit this year. They've played at a good level this year, but not an elite level, especially since kicking Chris Jones off the team. Since early February, they have only one win against a ranked team (season finale vs Virginia) with losses at Virginia, home against NC State, at Syracuse, home against Notre Dame, then in the ACC Tournament against North Carolina. Their defense is stout, but they are one of the more offensively challenged teams in the nation as they rank 130th in points per game and 211th in field goal percentage. UC Irvine will be a tougher matchup than people think, but I think the Cards at least get to a likely matchup against Northern Iowa. UNI should carry in momentum from a Missouri Valley Conference title and utilize Seth Tuttle all the way to the Sweet 16, ending Louisville's disappointing season.
Bold Prediction: No First Round Upsets
The lower seeded teams just don't interest me. Irvine will make things interesting, but Louisville's talent and Rick Pitino's coaching should win out. The 8-9 matchups are usually a toss up, but LSU is a sloppy team and NC State finished the year strong after a horrific month of January. Georgia is a team that wins the games they are supposed to, but loses the ones against the top teams. Going up against a Tom Izzo Michigan State team in the NCAA Tournament is not the best draw for the Bulldogs.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 8
While it is not a deep region, the teams at the top are really good. Villanova, like fellow Big East member Providence has achieved possibly the quietest 32-2 record ever. They haven't lost since January 19th and have since racked up eight wins against teams in the field of 64. You could argue that Virginia deserves to be a number one seed and will likely play like one with guard Justin Anderson getting healthier. Their opening round glorified scrimmage against Belmont should help get him back into his groove. Northern Iowa will be a popular sleeper Final Four pick, and even my underachieving pick Louisville could defend its way deep into the tournament. The seventh seeded Spartans and eighth seeded Wolfpack will give the two top seeds a run for their money in the second round.
Winner Of Region: Virginia
If Justin Anderson gets back into the flow of things, this is a team that could reach the Final Four and beyond. They are right there with Kentucky when discussing the best defensive team in the nation, and play efficient, though not very exciting, offense. Being a two seed should actually help Virginia as I think they have an easier path to the regional final than the top seeded Wildcats. The only game I'm worried about, and a game that could be one of the best in the entire tourney, is a potential second round game against Michigan State. Tom Izzo's success in tournaments is well known, and his Spartans are coming off an impressive three game stretch in the Big Ten Tournament, beating Ohio State, Maryland, and then losing the title to Wisconsin even though they had the game in hand. I'm nervous about putting UVA in the Final Four because they could be out before the second weekend of the tournament, but I think they squeeze by the Spartans. The Cavaliers are one of only a handful of teams that I think could beat Kentucky.
Matty O
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