Duke, North Florida/Robert Morris, San Diego State, St. John's, Utah, Stephen F. Austin, Georgetown, Eastern Washington, SMU, UCLA, Iowa State, UAB, Iowa, Davidson, Gonzaga, North Dakota State
Team That Will Overachieve: Gonzaga
Seems strange to call the second seeded 'Zags an overachiever, but given their tournament history, it will be considered an impressive feat if they even get by the first weekend. Consider that the 'Zags have lost in the first or second round every year since 2009. They haven't even made it to their regional final since 1999. They schedule challenging non-conference games, but are rarely tested once West Coast Conference games begin. So why do I think they will go far this year? The main reason is because they have three of the best college basketball players in the country who fill their roles nicely. Kevin Pangos, who it seems like has played there since the dawn of time, runs the show at the point as a distributor and decent scorer. Kyle Wiltjer is probably the most recognizable name on this team because he used to play for Kentucky. He was on UK's 2012 Championship team and won the SEC Sixth Man of the Year Award in 2013 for his excellent shooting coming off the bench. He still shoots lights out from three (46.6%), only now he's a starter at Gonzaga. The final piece to the puzzle is 7'1" center Przemek Karnowski. He clogs the lane and is third on the team in scoring behind Pangos and Wiltjer. This is the best team that coach Mark Few has had, and I think they make it all the way to the Final Four.
Team That Will Underachieve: Georgetown
While it would go against recent trends if the 'Zags were to make the Final Four, it would be right in line with recent trends if Georgetown were to go out early. They have lost in the first or second round every year they've made the tourney since 2008 (2009 and 2014 they didn't make the tournament). The list of debacles includes losing to 10th seeded Davidson in the second round (2008), losing to 14th seeded Ohio in the first round (2010), losing to 11th seeded VCU in the first round (2011), losing to 11th seeded NC State in the second round (2012), and losing to 15th seeded Florida Gulf Coast in the first round (2013). Their only notable road win all year was a six point win at Butler. They face a high flying Eastern Washington team in the first round that I think will show the Hoyas the door in the first round once again.
Bold Prediction: The 12 and 13 Seeds Will Win And Face Each Other In The Second Round
Although this sounds like a bold prediction, the numbers would actually tell you that a scenario like this is likely to happen. Since 2008, this 12/13 matchup has surprisingly happened six times (2013, 2012, 2011, 2009, twice in 2008). The 12 seed is 4-2 in those games, but none of them have advanced any farther. If there is going to be a 12/13 matchup in any region this year, I think it is this one. Eastern Washington's defense is ridiculously bad, but their offense is ridiculously good. They are third in the nation in points per game and 19th in field goal percentage. Georgetown is the more talented team though, and should win this game, but they should've won all those games mentioned above when they got upset. Stephen F. Austin has only lost once since November and returns a lot of the same team that pulled off a 12/5 upset last year over VCU. Utah, like Georgetown, is more talented than their opponent in this matchup, but they failed to win their marquee games (0-4 vs Arizona and Oregon) and wound up with the dreaded five seed. It won't be easy, but both teams have a chance to pull the upsets.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 9
Collectively, this might be the best #1, 2, and 3 seed of all the regions. Duke is Duke, the 'Zags have their triple headed monster, and I like what Iowa State brings to the table athletically with the likes of Georges Niang and Jameel McKay. A potential Sweet 16 matchup between the 'Zags and Cyclones would be a candidate for Game of the Tournament. Stephen F. Austin and Eastern Washington are teams that have a legitimate shot at pulling upsets and San Diego State will give Duke its toughest game until they reach the regional final.
Winner Of Region: Gonzaga
See above. The balance of a point guard, sniper shooter, and big man down low should help them buck the trend of early exits. The 7/10 matchup in their region is also, by far, the weakest of all the 7/10 matchups in the tournament. The 'Zags should cruise until Iowa State.
Matty O
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