Eight Is Great
After a dreadful round of 32 and a less than memorable Sweet 16, I was beginning to wonder if all the excitement of this year's tourney had been used up on Day 1. Even going into the Elite Eight matchups, I had my doubts about how much excitement we would see. Arizona and Wisconsin was going to be a sure fire great game, but the other three had potential snooze fest written all over them. Kentucky just came off an obliteration of West Virginia, and Notre Dame had cut it close in every game they had played up to that point, including a first round, four point win over Northeastern. Louisville might have been the higher seed, but they were still a poor offensive team and faced the 13, 5, and 8 seeds to get to the Elite Eight, while Michigan State had to beat the 10, 2, and 3 seeds to get there. Duke and Gonzaga had potential, but the Zags had yet to be truly tested and Duke had been rolling up to that point.
Thankfully, all four games were competitive with the Kentucky-Notre Dame game sure to go down as an instant classic. I thought Kentucky was dead in the water, but the Harrison twins came up big down the stretch. The Zona-Wisconsin game was as good as advertised as Frank Kaminsky may have led the Badgers in scoring, but it was Sam Dekker that put the nail in Arizona's coffin. MSU-Louisville went all the way to overtime as the duo of Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice led the Spartans. Duke-Gonzaga was a close game until there was five minutes left to go in the game. From then, with Duke only up by two, the Zags scored only one point in the final five minutes and lost by 14. Both Final Four matchups should provide us with the same amount of excitement with Wisconsin-Kentucky on one side and Duke-Michigan State on the other.
Undefeated, Unbeatable, Un-Hateable?
Hatred in sports is often fueled by winning. Entering the tournament, who hated Georgia State? Who envied Hampton and wanted them to lose with a passion? A select few, and even that might be an overestimation. They don't have rich histories, they don't win titles, and they don't have five star recruits lining up to go to their school. On the other end of that spectrum is a team like Kentucky. UK essentially plays next year's NBA All-Rookie team, has a future Hall of Fame coach in John Calipari, and has as rich of a basketball tradition as anyone. So, why do I find myself actually rooting for them? Why am I hoping for this undefeated season to come true?
Maybe it's my love for another polarizing team (Dallas Cowboys) that blinds me, but I just don't see what you can hate about this team in particular. Most of the time elite teams have that one player that you can rally your hate around. In recent memory, you think about the likes of Adam Morrison, JJ Redick, Tyler Hansbrough, and my personal favorite player to hate, Aaron Craft, and it would stand to reason that someone on this undefeated Kentucky team should be labeled as "hateable." I have yet to find that player. Perhaps it's because Coach Cal plays so many players that it is impossible for fans to pick out someone to hate. All I know is that this team doesn't showboat, they don't get in trouble off the court, and they accept their roles as part of a team, rather than pursuing individual fame.
Kentucky has also had the added benefit of playing not-so-likealbe teams so far. The Hampton game was whatever, but the Cincy game got pretty rough. Cincy, in my opinion, took it too far and were acting like punks, intentionally trying to rattle Kentucky. Intentional or not, it sparked the Wildcats down the stretch and turned a competitive game into a comfortable win. West Virginia might have gotten the people's sympathy if freshman Daxter Miles Jr. hadn't run his mouth and said Kentucky doesn't play hard. UK embarrassed West Virginia and doubled their score. Their last game was conveniently against one of the most hated (and loved) sports programs in America, Notre Dame. The fact that it was such a good game should have left fans with nothing but respect for both teams. For history and interest in the tournament's sake, I hope these Wildcats can close it out and finish undefeated.
Coaching Excellence
No offense to Bo Ryan, but if Roy Williams and North Carolina had beaten Wisconsin and Arizona to get to the Final Four, this group of coaches would have been even better. Regardless, this is still a fantastic group in the Final Four. John Calipari, Tom Izzo, Mike Krzyzewski, and Ryan are four of the best coaches in college basketball, with the former three arguably the top three. It's incredible to think that at least one of these coaches have been in every Final Four since 2007. Heck, Coach Cal even made it in 2008 without wearing Kentucky Blue (he coached Derrick Rose's Memphis team). Given the volatile behavior and mentality of 18-22 year old college kids, it really is an amazing feat to sustain that level of consistency. The battle that rages between the players on the court will be what gets the attention, but the battle of strategy and motivational tactics between the coaches may be what decides these two games.
All Big Ten Final
If MSU and Wisconsin both win, then there would be an all Big Ten final, as the teams would meet for the third time this season. A championship game with two teams from the same conference hasn't happened since 1988 when Kansas and Oklahoma met as members of the Big Eight Conference. Due to scheduling, these two teams only met once during the regular season, with Wisconsin coming away with a seven point victory at home. They met two weeks later in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. State appeared to have the game in hand as they were up 11 with seven and a half minutes left to play, and were controlling the game. Wisconsin rallied to tie the game in regulation, before shutting out the Spartans in overtime and winning the Big Ten title. I have no doubt a potential third matchup would be another tight one, but both will have to beat the odds and pull upsets in the Final Four.
Kentucky vs Wisconsin
I would've felt better about Wisconsin's chances before this past weekend's Elite Eight games. I say that, not because of how Kentucky or Wisconsin played, but because Notre Dame played a hellacious game and still lost to the Wildcats. While UK was unlucky at times and simply missed some easy shots, there were a couple things that Notre Dame exposed in their loss. The first is that UK is not the greatest team in their half court offense. If you can get numbers back so they can't fast break, they sometimes struggle finding a good shot. Wisconsin is great in their half court defense and could cause a cold spell for UK's offense. Wisconsin is an experienced and disciplined enough team to know that getting into a shootout with UK is a recipe for failure. The second thing is that Kentucky's bigs can be beat defensively. Zach Auguste shredded the Cats inside, particularly Karl Anthony Towns, to the point where Coach Cal had to substitute Towns off the court for defensive possessions. Auguste is a great player, but he's no Frank Kaminsky. Frank the Tank should, and will need to, have a big game down low in the post.
From Kentucky's vantage point, however, they have to feel great about their matchup inside on the offensive end. I mentioned how Towns was subbed out for defensive possessions because he struggled so much, but he was put right back in for offensive possessions because he was so unstoppable. Towns finished with 25 points on 10 of 13 shooting and was automatic once he established position down low. It will be interesting to see if Wisconsin chooses to double him. Notre Dame refused to do so, even as Towns was racking up points. Kaminsky is a good defender, but Towns has the ability to out-muscle Frank. Bo Ryan may even put Kaminsky on Willie Cauley-Stein because of the length and athleticism of both players. Regardless, I think Kentucky, like Wisconsin, will have an advantage down low on the offensive end.
So what decides this game? Well, with things sort of washing out down low, I think it will come down to how both teams won their Elite Eight matchups. If Sam Dekker can provide solid complimentary scoring to Kaminsky while keeping the threat of the three pointer in the minds of Kentucky defenders, then I think they have a great shot. While the Harrison twins didn't score a lot of points in the Elite Eight game, they made crucial shots down the stretch. If both of them, along with Devin Booker can knock down their shots, then Kentucky will have a great chance to win. In the end, I think Kentucky's depth gets to Wisconsin and Dekker hits some, but not enough, big shots down the stretch as the Cats win a tight one.
Final Score: Kentucky - 76, Wisconsin - 72
Michigan State vs Duke
If I were the Spartans, I wouldn't worry about that 10 point loss to Duke early in the season. Both teams were still figuring out who they were and both teams have improved immensely. I would, however, worry about Jahlil Okafor and the fact that MSU doesn't have anyone that can guard him one on one. Don't feel too bad though, not many teams have that. The key will be how often, and when, MSU does double Okafor. The Zags and Utes did that all game, leading to a combined 15 points for Okafor in the last two rounds. The bad news is that it freed up Duke's guards for wide open shots. Therein lies the problem for any team that faces Duke. Even if you stop Okafor's point totals, he is still a major factor because it opens up someone else on the floor. Okafor can be one of the players of the game without scoring in double digits because of the attention that he draws on every possession. I suppose forcing Duke to make shots rather than allowing Okafor to work people over down low is the better of the two options, but neither is enticing for a coach.
I still can't figure out how this Spartan team has come so far. Yes, Tom Izzo is a whiz in March, but he usually does it with more talented teams than this. Even he has admitted that, talent wise, this team is not the greatest. They have been successful by improving in all aspects throughout the year and playing as a unit. Their defense has been spectacular this tournament and is the foundation of why they are playing in the Final Four as a seven seed. Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine, and Branden Dawson are the trio that runs the show on the offensive side of the ball. Trice has developed into a do-it-all kind of player with a propensity to hit clutch shots. Valentine can play big, but still has a shooters touch. Dawson is their guy down low and should see plenty of Okafor on Saturday.
This game will be strength on strength. Duke is one of the most balanced offensive teams in the nation and will put points on the board no matter what defensive strategy their opponent draws up. MSU has played lights out defense this tournament, albeit against teams that were not the greatest offensively. This game's deciding factor is pretty simple; can Duke make their threes? Okafor will get doubled, players will be open, and shots will be fired. I think this winds up being a classic, hard fought game, but I think Michigan State's lack of pure talent finally catches up with them as Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow make enough shots for Duke to advance.
Final Score: Duke - 68, Michigan State - 67
Duke vs Kentucky
This would be a nightmare matchup for Duke because of Willie Cauley-Stein and the depth of Kentucky. Duke essentially plays four guards with Justice Winslow listed as a forward even though he's only 6'6". This normally wouldn't be a problem except Cauley-Stein can move and keep up with guards, but just so happens to be seven feet tall. Coach K can choose to put in a Amile Jefferson, but then one of his talented guards will be off the floor. Towns and Okafor would be a heck of a matchup down low between two likely NBA lottery picks, but Cauley Stein would be the deciding factor on the perimeter. Duke also has virtually no bench to go to, while UK subs people in and out, early and often. This will wear on the Blue Devis, particularly Okafor. Dakari Johnson, Cauley-Stein, and Towns would collectively be able to wear down Okafor as Okafor has no backup that is even close to his skill level. Duke would hang early on, but Kentucky would pull away and win by a comfortable margin.
Final Score: Kentucky - 82, Duke - 72
Matty O
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