Wisconsin, Coastal Carolina, Oregon, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Wofford, North Carolina, Xavier, Ole Miss, Baylor, Georgia State, VCU, Ohio State, Arizona, Texas Southern
Team That Will Overachieve: North Carolina
The combination of a favorable opening weekend draw and the ability to match up well with the number one seeded Badgers, makes the Tar Heels a dark horse in this region. UNC has the talent to knock off anybody in the country, they just have had a hard time closing out games. At Louisville, at Duke, and in the ACC Championship against Notre Dame are all games they had in hand and let slip away. The good news is they have also shown their own resilience, particularly their comeback win against Louisville after being down 13 with eight minutes left to play. Harvard barely made it into the tournament, and Wofford and Arkansas don't worry me at all. Stylistically, UNC plays very similar to Duke, apart from the increase in zone defense that Duke has run this year. Duke just happens to be the only non-Big 10 team to beat Wisconsin this year, winning by 10 at the Kohl Center where Wisconsin is invincible. UNC runs deep, as they have 10 players averaging at least 10 minutes a game. UNC doesn't have an individual that can stop Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky, but a collective effort from Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson could slow him down. Offensively, Marcus Paige is the kind of player that, if he gets hot, can carry a team through a single elimination tournament such as this (think Stephen Curry of Davidson or Kemba Walker of UConn). If UNC can close out games, it would not surprise me if they win this region.
Team That Will Underachieve: Arizona
Maybe it's because their games don't start until after my bedtime, but I'm not a believer in this team despite a lot of experts picking them as a popular selection to win this region. Admittedly, there is a lot to like about them though. Arizona won all their marquee games, including non-conference wins over San Diego State and Gonzaga, and haven't lost since early February. They have arguably the best starting five in the country (including Kentucky) and are in the top 22 in points per game and points against. So why the doubt? For starters, they have to face the winner of the best 7/10 matchup in the tournament. They will either be matched up against VCU's HAVOC defense that pressures the heck out of teams, or they will be given the unenviable task of trying to stop future top five NBA draft pick D'Angelo Russell of the Ohio State Buckeyes. If they get by that, I think a potential Sweet 16 matchup with Baylor could be their downfall, given Baylor's athleticism and rebounding prowess. I still have the Wildcats advancing to the Sweet 16, but I'm sure they would be looking for more than that.
Bold Prediction: Top Four Seeds Advance To Sweet 16
None of my other regions have all top four seeds advancing to the Sweet 16, and this is one of the most difficult regions for all four top seeds to advance past the first weekend. Oregon can give Wisconsin trouble for a good 25 minutes before the Badgers likely pull away. 'Zona has the hardest second round matchup in the region. Baylor should be on upset alert right from the start as Georgia State has a legitimate backcourt with RJ Hunter and Ryan Harrow, though they don't have much else. UNC is the only top seed that should get a fairly calm first weekend. Normally, however, something crazy happens during the first weekend to prevent a top four seed from reaching the Sweet 16. While I do have two first round upsets in this region (Wofford over Arkansas, Ohio State over VCU), I don't think any Cinderella shenanigans happen in the second round of this region.
Difficulty Of Region (1-10): 10
This region has quality teams from top to bottom. 'Zona, based on resume alone, could argue that they deserve to be a one seed. UNC has all the tools to advance far in any region and they are the fourth seed. VCU and OSU will at least knock one or the other out of the tournament, but the remaining team is one to watch out for. Number 12 Wofford pulls the upset I believe, and Georgia State should give Baylor all it can handle in the first round. While I would have liked BYU's chances more, 11th seeded Ole Miss could make some noise as there is usually one play-in team that performs decently in the tournament.
Winner Of Region: North Carolina
UNC's depth is key with the two games in two days format of the tournament. Closing out games will be key no matter who their opponent is, but especially down the stretch against teams like Wisconsin. Marcus Paige is the ultimate x-factor as he can single handedly turn UNC from an early exit team to a Final Four team.
Matty O
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