Prior to the official start of free agency, we knew that some marquee players were going to be on the move. We already knew Ndamukong Suh was going to Miami, Julius Thomas was going to Jacksonville, and LeSean McCoy and Kiko Alonso were switching teams. What we didn't know was the chaos that would ensue once the clock struck four o'clock eastern time on March 10th. Along with a number of notable releases and signings, there were also trades that completely blindsided those who keep up with the NFL. This post will analyze a couple of those trades, as well as review how teams did in building their teams in free agency so far.
Jimmy Graham Trade
This was the blockbuster that started everything off. Similar to the McCoy/Alonso trade, this trade came out of nowhere as the Saints sent their superstar Pro Bowl tight end and a fourth round draft pick, to the defending NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks for center Max Unger and a first round pick. I really like the trade for both sides as long as both Unger and Graham stay healthy (both battled injuries last year). From the Saints perspective, it is clear that they are trying to move towards a more balanced, if not run-heavy, offense. Quarterback Drew Brees is getting up there in age and he wasn't able to single handedly bring the Saints back in games last year like he could in the past. Mark Ingram had a pretty good year running the ball in 2014, and acquiring Unger was a great move if they want to go more smash mouth. While Graham has commanded triple digit targets each of the last four years, the Saints have some talented players to help make up for that. Marques Colston is still an above average receiver, and Kenny Stills and Brandin Cooks are two of the best young wide receivers in the game. Add in a possible Reggie Bush reunion coming out of the backfield, and I think the Saints will be okay when they do decide to throw.
From the Seahawks perspective, they acquire a matchup nightmare and someone that teams actually have to scheme against in the passing game. No one in the Seattle receiving corps should strike fear in anyone's heart, which enables teams to commit more to stopping the run with Marshawn Lynch. Graham's addition will be especially useful in goal line situations as the Hawks can split Graham out wide, have Russell Wilson read the defense, then either throw a lob to Graham or hand it off to Lynch in a thinned out box. Either option is attractive. For the record, however, even if they had Jimmy Graham, the Seahawks still should have run it in the Super Bowl. Just sayin'.
Sam Bradford Flip Flops With Nick Foles
The idea that "maybe all a player needs is a fresh start somewhere else," comes into play here. Each quarterback has serious questions, and each are, for now, being counted on to be the franchise QB for their new team. I've always been a Bradford fan and have long touted him in fantasy football. His injury history goes all the way back to college, but when he can stay healthy, he is certainly talented. He has only played two full NFL seasons (2010 and 2012), but at least improved during those two years. He threw for more yards, three more TDs, and two less interceptions in 2012 than he did in 2010. He played in a shotgun spread offense in college at Oklahoma, and will see something similar in Philly. While Chip Kelly brags that his sport science people can keep Bradford healthy, it is important to note that quarterbacks Nick Foles and Michael Vick have gotten hurt during Kelly's regime. If Bradford goes down, it's back to, gulp, Mark Sanchez.
While Foles did get injured last year, durability hasn't really been a question mark for him. The question surrounding Foles is how good he actually is? The Foles hype gained a lot of momentum when Vick was struggling at QB and, eventually, got injured. Foles had one of the best runs a QB has ever had in 2013, as he had a 27 to 2 touchdown to interception ratio in 13 games. His numbers were much worse in 2014 though, as he had a 13 to 10 TD to INT ratio in just eight games. He also had DeSean Jackson in 2013, Jeremy Maclin in 2014, and LeSean McCoy both years. The St. Louis Rams can't touch that talent. Running back Tre Mason is emerging, but their wide receiver corps is up in the air. I have no doubt that they'll draft a WR high in this year's draft, but that is still a downgrade in talent for Foles. Ram fans are hoping Foles does not bring about the same disappointment that Bradford did.
Dictator Kelly
I commented on how Chip Kelly is set on doing things his own way in my post on the McCoy trade, but he has gone even further. His most recent splash came in signing former Cowboy running back DeMarco Murray along with former Charger running back Ryan Mathews. While both have talent, both, like almost every other player Kelly has brought in, have injury histories. Murray hadn't played a full 16 games until last year, and was subsequently run into the ground by the Cowboys to the tune of 392 rushing attempts. Mathews has also only played one full NFL season (2013), never scored more than seven TDs in a single season, and consistently left Charger fans wanting more as he was touted as LaDamian Tomlinson's successor. Considering recently released Eagle cornerback Cary Williams complained this year about practices being too demanding, I'm not so sure two oft injured running backs with one coming off 392 attempts are the recipe to success.
Chip's defensive moves at least make a little more sense. His big name move was getting cornerback Byron Maxwell from the Seattle Seahawks. I had criticized Kelly in my last post for going after a linebacker instead of a secondary player, so he clearly knew that had to be addressed in some way. The NFC East has three elite wide receivers (Dez Bryant, DeSean Jackson, Odell Beckham Jr.) so this was a logical move. An under the radar move was acquiring cornerback Walter Thurmond III from the Giants. He also played for the Seattle Seahawks prior to 2014, and was on their Super Bowl winning squad. He got shipped to the Giants in 2014 and got injured in Week 2. He fits the Kelly mold to a tee. Injured last year? Check. Bargain? Check. Played college ball at Oregon? Check. If those two can mesh, it will address a major weakness from last year.
Best Line In The NFL
While some people might debate this, I believe that with the signing of Ndamukong Suh, that the Miami Dolphins have the best defensive line in football and it is not even close. With Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon flanking Suh, the Dolphins should create havoc up front this year. Wake, a four time Pro-Bowler, recorded 11 1/2 sacks last year and terrorized the best QB in his division, Tom Brady. Vernon, who is often overshadowed by Wake, recorded six and a half sacks last year and has yet to miss a game in his three year career. Add in Suh, who can stop the run and brings over eight and a half 2014 sacks of his own, and you have a nightmare of a line. Even with below average linebackers, I think this defense can become elite simply because of the three monsters up front. Every non-Patriot AFC East team has been active this offseason, and the Suh signing could be the cornerstone for the Dolphins to finally knock the Pats from their perch.
New England Up To Old Tricks
Unlike Chip Kelly who has zero credibility yet in the NFL, Bill Belichick has earned the benefit of the doubt. The problem is that there is a lot of doubt building up. The Pats have already let their two starting, elite cornerbacks go (Brandon Browner, Darrelle Revis) and a crucial member of the backfield in Shane Vereen. Vereen isn't your typical three down back, but he is one of, if not the best, in catching passes out of the backfield. The Pats don't win the Super Bowl if Vereen isn't the reliable check down option that he was, as he hauled in 11 catches. While keeping Revis would have been a financial stretch, I thought the Pats would at least keep Browner. Instead, they let the physical corner sign with the New Orleans Saints. I'm sure Belichick has something up his sleeve, but there can't be a lot of excitement in Boston right now. Even with the credibility that Belichick has earned, giving up two elite corners and one of Brady's best check down options who consistently gets matched up against a linebacker, put the Pats in a worse position on paper. I had the same kind of doubt after the Kansas City debacle last year though, and look how that turned out. One of these years though, I have a feeling that the idea that system is everything and players can be replaced will eventually fail and cause the Pats to fall flat on their face.
Quarterback Uncertainty
One thing free agency has taught me so far is how desperate teams are for quarterbacks. I don't mean good quarterbacks, I mean any quarterback. When teams are happy to sign Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown, you know times are tough. Looking at the current state of all NFL teams and their QBs, the majority of them either have a quarterback that has significant concerns, or they don't have a quarterback at all. Take the AFC East for example. One of the reasons why New England has enjoyed so much success lately is because the teams in their division (Jets, Dolphins, Bills) have all missed wildly on quarterback. The Jets just made a move to bring in Ryan Fitzpatrick to start over/backup Geno Smith. Rex Ryan must believe that Matt Cassel is worth a darn as he actually traded away a draft pick to get him to Buffalo. The 'Phins have Ryan Tannehill who hasn't been terrible, but certainly hasn't lived up to his eighth overall draft pick.
This graveyard of quarterback talent is one of the reasons why it was wise for teams like the Bears with Jay Cutler to hold serve and just kind of wait it out. So you get rid of Jay Cutler to sign Ryan Mallet. Congratulations, you just gave Aaron Rodgers another division title. I'm fairly concerned about the state of the quarterback position moving forward, especially once some of the older guys retire. A lot of the elite talent is getting up there in age (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees), and the only two young'uns who are carrying the load are Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck. Even the top two guys coming out this year (Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota) have legitimate concerns about their projected success in the NFL. The era of the QB might be gone faster than we realize.
Winner Of Free Agency So Far
As far as activity goes, you would obviously have to give it to the Eagles, but as a lot of people have said, no one knows what the heck Kelly is doing. With that in mind, I'll pick another team with green in its logo - the New York Jets. The Jets were 14th in the league in passing yards against last year, but also gave up the third most TDs, and were tied for last in interceptions. They decided to get the band back together, as they signed both Revis and Antonio Cromartie, both of whom excelled as a duo under Rex Ryan. New head coach Todd Bowles is a defensive whiz in his own right, so I expect this Jets defense to put up similar outstanding numbers that they did when Rex was head coach. Keep in mind that, despite the porous pass defense, the Jets run defense was very stout in 2014, finishing fifth in yards allowed. They're not losing anyone important, so expect this defense to be top five overall next year, possibly number one.
Similar to the defense, the Jet offense isn't losing anyone important either. Percy Harvin is a recognizable name, but he did very little for them last year in actual stats (350 yards, one TD). They still need a quarterback, but as I noted above, it's not like there's a gold mine of replacements out there. I'm guessing they draft one in the middle rounds and they give Geno Smith one last try. Running back is a question mark, but this years class is loaded with talent. They made the Brandon Marshall trade, which is still puzzling to me from both sides, but he certainly won't be a detriment to this offense. If this team makes noise in 2015, it will be because of their defense and special teams, which is fine. If they can find a rookie of the year QB or running back, however, the Patriots might want to look out.
Matty O
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