This post will go through everything you need to know to have the most successful draft possible. Even though you can trade and acquire players off the waiver wire in season, the draft is usually what determines how well you will do in fantasy that year. Save for a lopsided trade or an Alfred Morris type who explodes off the waiver wire, most people will have to ride it out with their draft day players whether they want to or not. Here are some helpful strategies to make your roster the envy of your league mates.
League Types (The most common I have seen)
Standard - This is just your standard league with default settings. Great for beginners or people who just want to jump right in without worrying about how changing points or lineups will affect the league. Most of the articles you see that contains fantasy advice are based off of standard leagues.
PPR - PPR, or point per reception, are leagues that award one point for every catch a player makes. This obviously raises the value of wide receivers and pass catching running backs (Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush). At the same time, this decreases the value of quarterbacks and blocking tight ends. PPR was developed because of the over emphasis of having elite running backs in standard leagues. This allows players like Danny Amendola to be elite options.
2 Quarterback - I've personally never been in such a league, but some leagues use two quarterbacks with the reasoning that picking a QB in a 10 or 12 team league is too easy since there are 32 teams in the NFL. These leagues obviously boost the value of QBs and force you to take a QB earlier than you normally would.
Bonus Points - This is my least favorite kind of scoring, but some leagues award bonuses when players reach certain statistical categories or do certain things. For instance, you might get a point bonus for a TD pass of 60+ yards, then a higher bonus for one of 70+ yards, and so on. I think that system is a bit gimmicky, but if you are doing that, then I would target players like Torrey Smith and Chris Givens who may only catch a few balls a game, but one of them is probably going deep.
You Are Creating A Team, Not Picking A Player
This is particularly important to remember in the early rounds. For instance, Calvin Johnson will be very tempting to take in the first round. There's a good chance that if you're picking at the end of the first round that the players available will be something like Johnson, Alfred Morris, and LeSean McCoy. Will Johnson outscore the two backs in overall points at the end of the year? Probably. But given how deep wide receiver is and how shallow running back is, it would make more sense to draft Morris or McCoy. Here's an example.
Team X will have the 9th pick and choose Johnson . Team Y will have the 10th and 11th picks (due to the snake draft format) and they will go with the RB-RB strategy and pick Morris and McCoy. Team X, in need of a RB, could go with Steven Jackson with the 12th pick. At this point, the teams look fairly even, but the problems start at the next picks for these teams. Team X won't get another pick until number 29. At this point, the next three running backs available will be David Wilson, Darren McFadden, and DeMarco Murray. A timeshare, unproven back, and two injury prone players. Team Y, meanwhile already has his two backs. The wide receivers available when he picks will be Andre Johnson, Randall Cobb, and Larry Fitzgerald. I would trust these three receivers over those three running backs any day of the week. This situation will continue for these two teams even further into the draft, causing Team X to reach for players, while Team Y can draft fairly comfortably. Just remember that your 8th round pick can be just as important as your 1st round pick.
If You Ain't First, You Better Be Last
I'm talking here about quarterback and tight end. At the QB position, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are the only two I would even consider taking early. Then, I would load up on RBs and WRs. As mentioned in the above section, if you take a non-RB early, you're just setting yourself up for a bad draft. Brees and Rodgers are good players and will probably finish with the most fantasy points this year, but the point differential between the first and 10th QB in 2012 (78) was not as much as the differential between the first and 10th RB (107). If you have already secured your two starting RBs, then I would consider going after Brees or Rodgers, but if not, hold steady and take a Tony Romo or Matthew Stafford who will finish in the top 10 anyways.
The same goes for tight end where Jimmy Graham should be the only one taken early. PPR obviously changes this as I would also recommend Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez to be taken higher than normal. For standard leagues, however, you can find plenty of guys late. Graham will most likely lead all tight ends in points this year, but with so many upside guys (Jordan Cameron, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett), there's no reason to waste a high pick on a TE early. The one owner that gets Graham will probably outscore your TE most weeks, but you'll probably be competitive with the rest of your league mates because their TEs won't be any good either.
Since there are 32 teams in the league, you can find a quality QB or TE in the 10th round because, well, there are 10 pretty good QBs and TEs out there. Since every owner only needs one, it doesn't make sense to reach for them. It's very possible this year that you could actually draft two QBs late and just rotate them in and out and play the matchups. Any QB can go off with a good matchup, and there are certainly more than 10 decent QBs in the NFL. A rotational system might work this year, allowing you to load up on your other positions.
Risky vs Safe
There will come a point in the draft where someone is staring Darren McFadden in the face. The knock on McFadden is he is injury prone, plays behind a horrendous offensive line, and will probably see stacked boxes since his QB play is so bad. But every time he is up to be drafted, there's that one owner that says to himself, "Alright, this is the year he stays healthy and plays like the pro he was supposed to be." He is drafted, he is injured in Week 6, and the owner scrambles to find a decent replacement. This is really a boom or bust strategy when drafting players like these with known risks. If McFadden were to play all 16 games and somehow play up to his skill level, then that owner would probably be in the playoffs, if not in the championship game. If not, however, then the pick is wasted and the mad dash to the waiver wire is on.
The safe owner picks players with a history of being low risk, putting up numbers, but with perhaps a more limited ceiling than a McFadden. An example of a player like that would be Steve Smith, WR for the Panthers. He's not going to win you any matchups by himself and won't wow any of the other owners when you select him on draft day. Still, you know he's going to go for at least 1,000 yards and a few scores as he's proven throughout his career. He's performed well with different QBs, and particularly well with current QB Cam Newton. His upside is certainly lower than a McFadden, but you're pretty much guaranteed that he will put up solid numbers and will be available all year.
Neither strategy is particularly "right," it just depends on if you want to roll the dice or not. I'm also not saying that the safe way guarantees that you won't have a team that does poorly, as anything can happen in football. The safe way just decreases the amount of worry that you'll probably have from week to week about your team.
Pass With Your Heart, But Don't Reach With Your Heart
What I mean by this is that you can come into the draft with a bias towards your favorite team and against your rivals, but don't let it cause you to make dumb draft choices. For instance, if you are a Bears fan and Packers WR James Jones is the best available player on the board, then by all means pass him for someone that you know might perform a little less poorly, but is not a Packer. On the other hand, don't go taking Matt Forte with the number one overall pick just because he's your homeboy and you think he's going to do well this year. He probably will do well, but reaching for a guy just because he plays for your favorite team is a bit absurd.
The Same Team Debate
There are differing schools of thought when it comes to drafting players that are on the same team. For instance, would it be smart for me to draft Matt Forte as well as Brandon Marshall even though they're both on the Bears? Well, it depends. For me, I don't like drafting a RB and WR on the same team, but I wouldn't mind a QB and WR or two WRs. The QB-WR combo is especially enticing because you get "double points" every time a pass is completed to that WR. For instance, if you own Jay Cutler and Marshall and they connect for a 25 yard TD, then you would get 1 point for Cutler's 25 passing yards, 2.5 points for Marshall's receiving yards, 4 or 6 (depending on your scoring settings) points for Cutler's passing TD, and 6 points for Marshall's receiving TD. Up to 15.5 points on one play! The downside is that during their bye week or if they have a bad game, then you'll have two positions that will under perform instead of just one.
This strategy obviously works best with the offenses that score the most. For instance, if you had Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White last year, you probably did pretty good even though they are all on the same team. Jones and White take targets away from each other, but when that offense is clicking (and is usually is) both of them can put up more points than a different receiver, who might get the most targets, on another team. This year, I would say this strategy applies to players on the Packers, Saints, Broncos, Patriots, Eagles, and Falcons.
Bye Week Vacation
One strategy I have seen utilized to combat bye weeks in the middle of the year is to draft all of your starters with the same bye week. This way, even though, barring a miracle, you essentially forfeit that week, you are at full strength for the other weeks while your opponents will likely be missing one or multiple starters. It's an interesting strategy to use, but very shortsighted. With all the injuries and depth chart movement that goes on during the year, it is highly likely that one of your starters won't even play all 16 weeks. There's usually also plenty of players to plug in during bye weeks that can have a good week based on their matchup. For instance, last year my QB had his bye in Week 7. I picked up Josh Freeman off of waivers because they were playing the hilariously bad Saints defense. Freeman went for 420 yards, three TDs, and no picks. Trying to get all your starter's bye weeks to match up is near impossible on draft day, so just draft as you normally would.
Handcuff
A handcuff in fantasy football applies to running backs and the strategy of drafting their backup regardless of where he is projected to be taken. Handcuffs will usually start going later in drafts. For example, Arian Foster is the number one guy in Houston. If anything were to happen to him, Ben Tate would be the next guy in line. If you didn't have Tate, you essentially just wasted your first round pick because now you have to find someone on waivers or trade for a serviceable back. If you have Tate, however, then you still have a decent back on a good running offense.
This isn't to say you should always take a handcuff. Handcuffs should really only be taken for players on teams that a) have a good offensive line or b) run the ball a lot. For example, drafting a handcuff to the Packers' starting RB wouldn't make much sense. Their offensive line is average at best and they don't run that often. Would that backup RB put up numbers if he were inserted in the lineup? It would just make more sense to pick a high upside player than a handcuff in that scenario. Taking Michael Bush as a handcuff to Forte, however, would make a lot of sense. Forte has missed some games recently and Bush has shown, in Chicago and Oakland, that he can perform when called upon. The Bears' offensive line is much better run blocking than they are at pass blocking, so it is more than likely that Bush will still put up good numbers if anything were to happen to Forte.
The Last 2 Rounds
The last two rounds should be reserved for defenses and kickers. Your league will more than likely have someone reach for Seattle or San Fran's defense and maybe even for a kicker. Do not be that person. The later rounds is when you should be drafting players with upside that could develop into starters or trade bait. Last year, Arizona, St. Louis, San Diego, Cincinnati, Denver, and New England were all ranked outside of the preseason top 10 last year, but all finished in the top 10 by the end of the year. Defensive staples like the Steelers, Ravens, and Jets however, were projected to be sure thing top 10 defenses and finished 23rd, 14th, and 20th, respectively. There are always multiple defenses that can be taken late that will emerge to be startable.
If you take a kicker prior to the last round, you need to have your head checked. Just wait until the last round and pick one on a good offense.
There it is folks, the last of my fantasy advice I can give you before draft day. I know a lot of drafts will probably be taking place this weekend, with some more taking place next weekend. Drafting well is the first key to a successful fantasy season so just remember a) wait on TE and QB b) RB is shallow and WR is deep c) brains over emotion d) handcuff when necessary e) for the love of God wait until the last round to draft a kicker.
Matty O
Friday, August 23, 2013
Thursday, August 22, 2013
2013 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Studs: CJ Spiller, RB
Since Spiller came into the league, his fantasy value has been limited by the fact that he had to split carries in the backfield with the older, slower Fred Jackson. Now, with a new coaching staff and Jackson another year older, all signs point to Spiller getting a lot of touches and being the number one guy in the backfield. He showed what he could do when given the chance last year as he rushed for 100+ yards five times, and reached double digit fantasy points 12 times. This was done despite having six games where he saw less than 10 carries. Good news for PPR leagues is that Spiller also catches out of the backfield as he racked up 43 receptions. Jackson is still in town, but I expect him to be relegated to goal line duties and just giving Spiller a rest once in a while. Spiller is the guy to own in Buffalo.
Busts: None
It was either going to be CJ or no one. Spiller will be taken in the top 5, and the next relevant Bills player isn't going until the late 7th, early 8th round. Who might said character be?
Sleeper: Steve Johnson, WR
Listed as the 78th overall player off the board, Johnson has now posted back to back to back 1,000 yard seasons. Losing Ryan Fitzpatrick to Kevin Kolb or EJ Manuel is a bit of a downgrade and chemistry will have to be made with the two new QBs, but for where he is being drafted, I think Johnson will be a great pick. Despite finishing 2012 tied for 18th in receptions (79), he was ninth in the league in targets last year (148). He's the best, most experienced WR they have right now and, similar to in year's past, I expect them to look his way early and often. While reports coming out of Buffalo's camp is that they will run and feed the ball to Spiller more, that doesn't mean they won't pass at all. Johnson will put up another 1,000 yard campaign, something which cannot be said for Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, and Sidney Rice; three players being drafted around Johnson.
Bottom Line:
The Bills, like the Vikings last year, are putting all their hope in their RB. If Spiller cannot produce, then this offense and team as a whole, will struggle. EJ Manuel might be worth a late round flier, but anyone expecting the next RG3 will be mistaken. He might give you rushing yards some games, but his passing ability and decision making is average at best. Take Spiller, take a chance on Johnson if you're weak at WR, avoid the rest.
New York Jets
Studs: None
It's very rare that a team has zero studs, but then again, just look at last year's Jets. Now, during the offseason, they lost their starting RB (Shonn Greene), their starting TE (Dustin Keller), and their veteran and probably still most skilled receiver is still not back from injury recovery (Santonio Holmes). This team isn't devoid of talent, it's just that no one knows who will emerge, if anyone.
Busts: Chris Ivory, RB
Since he came into the league, Ivory has played on a team with an explosive offense, but a lot of RBs. While in New Orleans, he was usually stuck behind Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Mark Ingram in the battle for carries and playing time. The good news is he will most likely be the number one featured back on a new team that likes to run the football (494 attempts, 6th in the NFL). The bad news is that throughout his career, Ivory has battled multiple injuries, causing him to miss time in training camp and losing reps in practice. Also, even though they ran the ball a lot last year, it's not like they were good at it. They finished 23rd in yards per attempt with a lowly 3.8 YPA. Currently going in the mid fifth round, I think Ivory will disappoint a lot of owners this year.
Sleeper: Jeremy Kerley, WR
Out of all my sleepers, this is probably the one I am least confident about, but you never know. He is miles ahead of any of the other WRs on the roster (Holmes is still not playing), and should see the majority of the targets. I expect the Jets to be behind most games, so the passing game will need to be an option. With Keller gone, it gives Kerley even more chances to make a name for himself. On a terrible offense last year, his yardage total wasn't awful (827) and he did get 96 targets. He'll certainly not be a WR1 or WR2, but if things work out in New York, he could be a serviceable FLEX later on in the year. He is currently going undrafted in most leagues.
Miami Dolphins
Studs: Mike Wallace, WR
Wallace is one of the fastest players in the NFL, whose trademark is going deep. He should benefit the Dolphins' offense as a whole by stretching the field and opening up the underneath stuff. When he does break free, however, Ryan Tannehill has the arm to get the ball there. Just like in Pittsburgh, Wallace still comes with the feast or famine warning meaning he has big play ability, but won't show it every week. Just take a look at the second half of the season last year. He puts up four fantasy points combined in Weeks 11-13, and then goes for 112 yards and 2 TDs in Week 14. Then, he finishes the last three games with a combined 10 points. Perhaps a new system and new QB will help improve his consistency.
Busts: Miami Running Backs (Possibly)
The news has changed from Lamar Miller being the number one guy to Miller sharing carries with Daniel Thomas too many times to count. If Miller gets the starting job and the majority of the carries, then I think he is draftable where he is projected. Yet, even into late August when Miller should have had the competition wrapped up by now, there are still rumblings of a backfield committee which is a fantasy owner's worst nightmare. Stay tuned to this scenario. If it is a committee, then anyone that drafts Miller had better get Thomas in the later rounds.
Sleeper: Brian Hartline, WR
My original sleeper, Dustin Keller, was just recently lost for the season due to a low hit in a preseason game. Hartline still fits the bill. While he is no longer the "number one" WR with Wallace in town, I think he is still Tannehill's most trusted weapon, which is important when playing with a second year QB. Despite Tannehill's struggles last year, Hartline still topped 1,000 yards, despite finding the end zone only once. As previously mentioned, with Wallace opening up the middle, Hartline can fill in underneath and rack up yards and, for the PPR people out there, receptions. If chemistry between Tannehill and Wallace doesn't click, look for him to go back to Hartline and for him to have a solid year as someone's FLEX.
Bottom Line:
Losing Reggie Bush and now Dustin Keller really hurts this offense. Sure, Wallace is a nice addition, but it's not enough when you're trying to catch the New England Patriots. I think one, maybe two, players will emerge on this offense to be relevant, but not more than that. I think they finish behind New England once again and miss the playoffs once again.
New England Patriots
Studs: Tom Brady, QB, Stevan Ridley, RB, Rob Gronkowski, TE (Injury Pending)
When Brandon Lloyd left, Aaron Hernandez got caught, Wes Welker went to Denver, and Gronk remained injured, Brady's draft stock dropped like a stone. People forget that none of those players, apart from Lloyd, were anything before they played with Brady. He makes great WRs, not the other way around. They have a lot of great young talent and, when Gronk comes back, will probably not miss a beat. They might have some growing pains and struggles early on, but by the end of the year, Brady will have you saying, "Wes who?"
With BenJarvaus Green-Ellis gone, Ridley showed what he could do. He rushed for over 1200 yards and 12 TDs last year. Also, unlike some highly drafted backs, the Patriots leave him in near the goal line, so I would expect double digit TDs once again. The Patriots' running game is probably the best kept secret in the NFL. People just think Brady, and hurry up, and pass, pass, pass when they think of New England, but there's much more to it than that. The Pats actually had the second most attempts last year behind Seattle and led the league in rushing TDs as well. I think this theme holds and Ridley becomes a top 10 RB you can get in the second round.
Injuries are becoming a concern for the Gronk and it is unsure if he will start the year on the PUP list, which will cost him the first six games of the year. If that is the case, his draft stock will drop significantly. The reason it is still so high is because of how great he is when he does suit up. He was arguably Brady's favorite target along with Welker. I actually think it might be better if he does start on the PUP list. I would rather have a fully healthy, locked and loaded Gronk for the second half of the year and my playoff run, than a decent Gronk being an injury risk for the whole year. Either way, once he starts playing again, I expect his production to stay the same. No drop off here.
Bust: Danny Amendola, WR
11 out of 32 games. That's how many Amendola has been able to play in. He is one of those players that you wonder not if he will get injured, but when. People will point to his high reception and yardage totals in St. Louis, but I believe that was more of a case of him being the only guy there. Although he is touted as the main WR in New England, I'm not sure that is the case. The Pats have some promising upcoming receivers (Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson) and will be targeting their big tight ends early and often (Gronk when healthy, Zach Sudfield). While I do think he puts up decent numbers, I don't think they will reach WR1 numbers and might even disappoint as a WR2.
Sleeper: Shane Vereen, RB
There are quite a few sleepers on this team, but I think Vereen is the best bet to make some noise. Vereen benefits from Danny Woodhead leaving New England for San Diego. In the preseason, Vereen has looked impressive as he's lined up in the backfield and out at receiver to try and get a mismatch against a linebacker. While his value might be limited in standard leagues, I think he is a bona fide lock to be someone's FLEX in PPR. He is a great pass catcher and can move in space. Add in the fact that he will get some carries and chances at TDs, and you have a great value for someone going in the 9th round.
Bottom Line:
Despite all the change on offense, I don't think they miss a step. Brady will get these receivers up to par and once Gronk comes back, this offense will be scary to play against. The Pats should win this division once again as unknown names on this receiving corps will become household names by the time the season is through.
That's the end of the fantasy breakdown series. Thanks for reading folks. With a lot of drafts coming up this weekend, I'll be sure to post my draft strategy article between now and Saturday so you can draft the best team possible. Look for that coming soon.
Matty O
Studs: CJ Spiller, RB
Since Spiller came into the league, his fantasy value has been limited by the fact that he had to split carries in the backfield with the older, slower Fred Jackson. Now, with a new coaching staff and Jackson another year older, all signs point to Spiller getting a lot of touches and being the number one guy in the backfield. He showed what he could do when given the chance last year as he rushed for 100+ yards five times, and reached double digit fantasy points 12 times. This was done despite having six games where he saw less than 10 carries. Good news for PPR leagues is that Spiller also catches out of the backfield as he racked up 43 receptions. Jackson is still in town, but I expect him to be relegated to goal line duties and just giving Spiller a rest once in a while. Spiller is the guy to own in Buffalo.
Busts: None
It was either going to be CJ or no one. Spiller will be taken in the top 5, and the next relevant Bills player isn't going until the late 7th, early 8th round. Who might said character be?
Sleeper: Steve Johnson, WR
Listed as the 78th overall player off the board, Johnson has now posted back to back to back 1,000 yard seasons. Losing Ryan Fitzpatrick to Kevin Kolb or EJ Manuel is a bit of a downgrade and chemistry will have to be made with the two new QBs, but for where he is being drafted, I think Johnson will be a great pick. Despite finishing 2012 tied for 18th in receptions (79), he was ninth in the league in targets last year (148). He's the best, most experienced WR they have right now and, similar to in year's past, I expect them to look his way early and often. While reports coming out of Buffalo's camp is that they will run and feed the ball to Spiller more, that doesn't mean they won't pass at all. Johnson will put up another 1,000 yard campaign, something which cannot be said for Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, and Sidney Rice; three players being drafted around Johnson.
Bottom Line:
The Bills, like the Vikings last year, are putting all their hope in their RB. If Spiller cannot produce, then this offense and team as a whole, will struggle. EJ Manuel might be worth a late round flier, but anyone expecting the next RG3 will be mistaken. He might give you rushing yards some games, but his passing ability and decision making is average at best. Take Spiller, take a chance on Johnson if you're weak at WR, avoid the rest.
New York Jets
Studs: None
It's very rare that a team has zero studs, but then again, just look at last year's Jets. Now, during the offseason, they lost their starting RB (Shonn Greene), their starting TE (Dustin Keller), and their veteran and probably still most skilled receiver is still not back from injury recovery (Santonio Holmes). This team isn't devoid of talent, it's just that no one knows who will emerge, if anyone.
Busts: Chris Ivory, RB
Since he came into the league, Ivory has played on a team with an explosive offense, but a lot of RBs. While in New Orleans, he was usually stuck behind Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Mark Ingram in the battle for carries and playing time. The good news is he will most likely be the number one featured back on a new team that likes to run the football (494 attempts, 6th in the NFL). The bad news is that throughout his career, Ivory has battled multiple injuries, causing him to miss time in training camp and losing reps in practice. Also, even though they ran the ball a lot last year, it's not like they were good at it. They finished 23rd in yards per attempt with a lowly 3.8 YPA. Currently going in the mid fifth round, I think Ivory will disappoint a lot of owners this year.
Sleeper: Jeremy Kerley, WR
Out of all my sleepers, this is probably the one I am least confident about, but you never know. He is miles ahead of any of the other WRs on the roster (Holmes is still not playing), and should see the majority of the targets. I expect the Jets to be behind most games, so the passing game will need to be an option. With Keller gone, it gives Kerley even more chances to make a name for himself. On a terrible offense last year, his yardage total wasn't awful (827) and he did get 96 targets. He'll certainly not be a WR1 or WR2, but if things work out in New York, he could be a serviceable FLEX later on in the year. He is currently going undrafted in most leagues.
Miami Dolphins
Studs: Mike Wallace, WR
Wallace is one of the fastest players in the NFL, whose trademark is going deep. He should benefit the Dolphins' offense as a whole by stretching the field and opening up the underneath stuff. When he does break free, however, Ryan Tannehill has the arm to get the ball there. Just like in Pittsburgh, Wallace still comes with the feast or famine warning meaning he has big play ability, but won't show it every week. Just take a look at the second half of the season last year. He puts up four fantasy points combined in Weeks 11-13, and then goes for 112 yards and 2 TDs in Week 14. Then, he finishes the last three games with a combined 10 points. Perhaps a new system and new QB will help improve his consistency.
Busts: Miami Running Backs (Possibly)
The news has changed from Lamar Miller being the number one guy to Miller sharing carries with Daniel Thomas too many times to count. If Miller gets the starting job and the majority of the carries, then I think he is draftable where he is projected. Yet, even into late August when Miller should have had the competition wrapped up by now, there are still rumblings of a backfield committee which is a fantasy owner's worst nightmare. Stay tuned to this scenario. If it is a committee, then anyone that drafts Miller had better get Thomas in the later rounds.
Sleeper: Brian Hartline, WR
My original sleeper, Dustin Keller, was just recently lost for the season due to a low hit in a preseason game. Hartline still fits the bill. While he is no longer the "number one" WR with Wallace in town, I think he is still Tannehill's most trusted weapon, which is important when playing with a second year QB. Despite Tannehill's struggles last year, Hartline still topped 1,000 yards, despite finding the end zone only once. As previously mentioned, with Wallace opening up the middle, Hartline can fill in underneath and rack up yards and, for the PPR people out there, receptions. If chemistry between Tannehill and Wallace doesn't click, look for him to go back to Hartline and for him to have a solid year as someone's FLEX.
Bottom Line:
Losing Reggie Bush and now Dustin Keller really hurts this offense. Sure, Wallace is a nice addition, but it's not enough when you're trying to catch the New England Patriots. I think one, maybe two, players will emerge on this offense to be relevant, but not more than that. I think they finish behind New England once again and miss the playoffs once again.
New England Patriots
Studs: Tom Brady, QB, Stevan Ridley, RB, Rob Gronkowski, TE (Injury Pending)
When Brandon Lloyd left, Aaron Hernandez got caught, Wes Welker went to Denver, and Gronk remained injured, Brady's draft stock dropped like a stone. People forget that none of those players, apart from Lloyd, were anything before they played with Brady. He makes great WRs, not the other way around. They have a lot of great young talent and, when Gronk comes back, will probably not miss a beat. They might have some growing pains and struggles early on, but by the end of the year, Brady will have you saying, "Wes who?"
With BenJarvaus Green-Ellis gone, Ridley showed what he could do. He rushed for over 1200 yards and 12 TDs last year. Also, unlike some highly drafted backs, the Patriots leave him in near the goal line, so I would expect double digit TDs once again. The Patriots' running game is probably the best kept secret in the NFL. People just think Brady, and hurry up, and pass, pass, pass when they think of New England, but there's much more to it than that. The Pats actually had the second most attempts last year behind Seattle and led the league in rushing TDs as well. I think this theme holds and Ridley becomes a top 10 RB you can get in the second round.
Injuries are becoming a concern for the Gronk and it is unsure if he will start the year on the PUP list, which will cost him the first six games of the year. If that is the case, his draft stock will drop significantly. The reason it is still so high is because of how great he is when he does suit up. He was arguably Brady's favorite target along with Welker. I actually think it might be better if he does start on the PUP list. I would rather have a fully healthy, locked and loaded Gronk for the second half of the year and my playoff run, than a decent Gronk being an injury risk for the whole year. Either way, once he starts playing again, I expect his production to stay the same. No drop off here.
Bust: Danny Amendola, WR
11 out of 32 games. That's how many Amendola has been able to play in. He is one of those players that you wonder not if he will get injured, but when. People will point to his high reception and yardage totals in St. Louis, but I believe that was more of a case of him being the only guy there. Although he is touted as the main WR in New England, I'm not sure that is the case. The Pats have some promising upcoming receivers (Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson) and will be targeting their big tight ends early and often (Gronk when healthy, Zach Sudfield). While I do think he puts up decent numbers, I don't think they will reach WR1 numbers and might even disappoint as a WR2.
Sleeper: Shane Vereen, RB
There are quite a few sleepers on this team, but I think Vereen is the best bet to make some noise. Vereen benefits from Danny Woodhead leaving New England for San Diego. In the preseason, Vereen has looked impressive as he's lined up in the backfield and out at receiver to try and get a mismatch against a linebacker. While his value might be limited in standard leagues, I think he is a bona fide lock to be someone's FLEX in PPR. He is a great pass catcher and can move in space. Add in the fact that he will get some carries and chances at TDs, and you have a great value for someone going in the 9th round.
Bottom Line:
Despite all the change on offense, I don't think they miss a step. Brady will get these receivers up to par and once Gronk comes back, this offense will be scary to play against. The Pats should win this division once again as unknown names on this receiving corps will become household names by the time the season is through.
That's the end of the fantasy breakdown series. Thanks for reading folks. With a lot of drafts coming up this weekend, I'll be sure to post my draft strategy article between now and Saturday so you can draft the best team possible. Look for that coming soon.
Matty O
Tuesday, August 20, 2013
2013 Fantasy Breakdown: NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
Studs: LeSean McCoy, RB, DeSean Jackson, WR
Last year, McCoy was near the top of fantasy draft boards, going somewhere between three and five overall. After a disappointing 2012, his draft stock has dropped a bit, enabling you to get a potential top 3 RB in the late first, perhaps early second depending on how your league drafts. He missed four games last year due to concussion and was limited by Andy Reid's play calling. He still finished with 840 yards and made PPR owners happy with 54 receptions. His five total TDs are what killed him and was one of the reasons the Eagles wound up in last place. New head coach Chip Kelly will run the ball more and, given the wide open style of his offense, should be able to get McCoy into space where he is especially dangerous. I think McCoy has a monster comeback year and thrives in Kelly's system.
Jackson may not have made this section had it not been for Maclin's injury. Jackson once again becomes the number one guy for the Eagles. He had a rough and injury plagued year, playing in only 11 games. The key for Jackson is that Michael Vick appears to be at full health and he's proven he can put up numbers in the past. He had back to back 1,000 yard receiving years in 2009 and 2010, posting 15 TDs in the process. In their first preseason game, Vick connected on a long bomb to Jackson for a 47 yard TD. That's what I expect from Jackson this year. His value is very limited in PPR, but he will have at least three or four chances each game to connect on a long catch and/or TD. Currently projected as the 27th WR off the board, I think he has some value this year as a boom or bust WR.
Bust: None
Like many other teams that have no one to put in the bust category, the Eagles were pretty awful last year. The only one worthy of a bust prediction would be McCoy, but obviously I don't think that will happen. Apart from McCoy, Jackson, and possibly Bryce Brown and Michael Vick, the rest of the Eagles will go undrafted.
Sleeper: Michael Vick, QB
Vick is in the same mold of players like Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray; when they're healthy and play well, then they're fantasy gold, unfortunately they usually don't do that. Still, Vick is one of the most talented runners at the QB position and proved he can still throw the rock every once in a while (threw for over 300 yards three times in 2012). Kelly will bring in a new option read scheme, which could make Vick's rushing numbers even better. It will be up to him to avoid those big hits though. We've seen in the past how Vick's ability can win you a mtachup, so the fact that he is projected as the 16th QB off the board makes him a steal. I would rather select Vick (No. 16 QB) who has top 5 upside, rather than draft Joe Flacco (No. 15 QB) whose upside is little to none. At the very least if Vick goes off early in the season, he can be trade bait. Speed is the name of the game with Kelly's offense, and Vick still has plenty of it.
Bottom Line:
Fantasy wise, the offense looks very exciting. If Kelly can even come close to the numbers his teams put up at Oregon, then many of the Eagles' offensive players will be great to own. In real life, however, I still think they finish last in the division because of their porous defense. The good part about that for fantasy owners? Shootouts. Enter Jackson, McCoy, and Vick to put up numbers.
New York Giants
Studs: Victor Cruz, WR
Cruz is the only consistent, reliable weapon currently on the Giants' roster. With the departure of Ahmad Bradshaw, the backfield looks like it is heading towards committee territory with David Wilson and Andre Brown sharing time. The Giants' former number one WR Hakeem Nicks, can't stay healthy, and they lost their breakout tight end in Martellus Bennett to the Bears. Cruz should provide some stability though as he put up another 1,000 yard campaign and bumped his TDs into double digits (10). He would have had an even bigger year had it not been for Eli Manning's atrocious three game slump from Week 8 to Week 10 where he threw for an average of 177 yards for those three games with zero passing TDs. Barring another slump of that magnitude, Cruz will once again put up great numbers as he salsa dances your fantasy team into the playoffs.
Bust: Giants Running Backs
It is certainly possible that either David Wilson or Andre Brown emerges to distinguish themselves, but I'm not sure who at this point. Wilson got a lot of hype from last year as he had two great games to end the year; Week 14 against New Orleans and Week 17 against Philadelphia. He now gets the chance to take over the number one spot with Bradshaw gone, but Brown is lurking. Brown's hype was the exact opposite because his two great games were at the beginning of the year; Week 2 against Tampa Bay and Week 3 in Carolina. Brown actually finished last year with more carries and TDs than Wilson last year, yet is projected lower than him this year. I see a situation developing where either one goes off one week, then the other, etc., or they both perform okay most weeks, but limit each others' fantasy value. If the price is right, I might take one of these two, but probably only as my FLEX and certainly not a RB2.
Sleeper: Brandon Myers, TE
While Bennett was having a breakout year in New York, Myers was having one of his own in Oakland on a much worse team. Myers put up nearly 200 more yards than Bennett with 24 more receptions. Manning clearly enjoys throwing it to his tight ends as he turned Jake Ballard into a usable fantasy TE before Bennett came over from the Cowboys. Myers should slide right into that role and perform even better than both of them. Projected as the 10th TE off the board, Myers could be a value for those owners who wait on TE and load up on the other positions early. If, or when, Nicks gets injured, his value rises even more.
Bottom Line:
The Giants need more consistent QB play from Manning if they are to win the division this year. They have plenty of weapons to do so, including two running backs that are waiting to break out. Cruz is definitely the safest pick here with Nicks being a potential bargain if he can stay healthy (that's a big if).
Washington Redskins
Studs: Robert Griffin III, QB, Alfred Morris, RB
Even though people thought RG3 would be a great QB, I don't think anyone thought it would happen that quickly. Not only did he carry a lot of fantasy teams into the playoffs, he also resurrected the Redskins from annual cellar dwellers to the playoffs. He lit up fantasy scoreboards as he rushed for 826 yards and finished the year with 27 total TDs. While most people marvel at those rushing stats, I was more impressed with the fact that he only threw five interceptions last year which is unheard of for a rookie QB. If he can stay healthy this year, he is primed for another big season for fantasy owners and the Redskins.
Morris went from waiver wire fodder to fantasy gold last year. He finished as the number five fantasy running back, rushing for over 1500 yards and 13 TDs. RG3's injury actually helps Morris quite a bit because of the increase in carries he will get. The Redskins still want to run the ball, but I have a feeling the designed runs for RG3 will go down. Who will pick up those carries? Morris. His value in PPR leagues is much lower than standard given his mere 11 receptions last year, but he'll still be a starting RB for any fantasy team. I think his numbers dip a little bit this year (13 TDs is quite a bit), but not enough to push him out of the fantasy stud section.
Bust: RG3, QB
Similar to Vick, RG3's running style should worry people when it comes to injuries. He runs with reckless abandon and, although it's easy to say he will be more careful this year, I still think he will revert back to his old ways in the heat of the moment. In 2012, RG3 missed part of the Falcons game, missed part of the Ravens game, and missed the entire Browns game. I mentioned earlier how the Redskins will probably be more conservative with RG3's running, which is good for the Redskins but bad for fantasy owners. His running numbers masked his often times mediocre passing stats. Not including the games he didn't finish or didn't play in, RG3 threw for 215 yards or less in eight games last year. The final two games for the Redskins after he came back from injury? 298 yards, 2 TDs, one INT. Drew Brees puts up better numbers in three quarters. If he is limited in the running game at all, his passing deficiencies will start to show and he will no longer by the fantasy guarantee that he was last year.
Sleeper: Pierre Garcon, WR
When Garcon and RG3 were both healthy last year, they were one of the top QB-WR combos in the NFL. Garcon exploded with a 109 yard, 1 TD performance in Week 1, but was injured in the process. He didn't manage to really get his feet back under him until Week 12. Then, just like in Week 1, he took off posting three double digit games from Week 12 to Week 14. He finished the year quietly, however, coinciding with the Browns game RG3 missed and the final two games where RG3 was average at best as a passer. He is the unquestioned number one WR on this team, but is being drafted in fantasy as a FLEX. If both he and RG3 can stay healthy, Garcon is a top 5 WR. Yep, top 5. He may be the best value out there right now, showing just how deep WR is this year.
Bottom Line:
A year after winning the division, expectations are high in D.C. The Redskins' fate really all comes down to RG3's health and how his play style will be different. I still think this offense puts up numbers, but it might come from different places other than RG3's legs this year. If he goes down, I think Morris still has value, but everyone else is in trouble.
Dallas Cowboys
Studs: Dez Bryant, WR, Jason Witten, TE
Finally, Dez woke up and realized his potential. As a Cowboys fan, I was ecstatic when they drafted him back in 2010 as he put up great numbers in college and was, and still is, an athletic freak of nature. Inconsistency, injuries, and off the field problems soon ended that excitement as it looked like Dez was heading towards bust territory. Then, in Week 10 last year, everything just seemed to click. From Week 10 to the end of the year, he had only one single digit game and put up number one overall WR numbers. Three times he went for 145 yards or more including a 224 yard masterpiece in many people's fantasy championship game. He also scored at least one TD from Week 10 to Week 16. He put up phenomenal numbers for the year, despite starting the season very slow. He had three one point games and only two double digit games prior to Week 10. Of all the WRs not named Calvin Johnson, I think he has the best upside to be the number one overall WR this year.
Witten just keeps on chugging. Another 1,000 yard season as his chemistry with Tony Romo has continued. The only concerning thing with Witten is that his TD total has dropped the past two years, all the way down to three last year. Still, predicting TDs with tight ends is difficult so I wouldn't be too concerned. For PPR leagues, Witten is a monster as shown in Week 8 last year against the Giants. He actually scored more fantasy points for his receptions (18 points) than for his overall yardage (16 points). He is about as safe of a pick as you can get in all of fantasy football.
Bust: DeMarco Murray, RB
Darren McFadden, Dallas edition. That is what Murray is turning into as he has now missed nine games in two seasons. He can run with the best of them when he is out there, but the injuries are mounting. Even more concerning is that he had these problems in college as well, so it's likely that his body is fragile or broken down from these injuries, making it difficult for him to play a whole season. His TD total is also quite low as he only had four last year in 10 games. He is currently the 21st projected RB off the board meaning someone will have him as their RB2 in 12 team leagues, and someone will probably reach for him in 10 team leagues as their RB2. I might be comfortable with him as my FLEX, but there are safer, higher upside options out there.
Sleeper: Tony Romo, QB
Even as a Cowboys fan, I dislike Romo, but he is the ultimate fantasy vs reality player. The perception that he gets in reality is that he is no good, chokes in games, and makes bad decisions. In fantasy football, however, like any fantasy game, it is all about stats. That's it. And when it comes to stats, Romo is near the top. In every year since he has been a starter (excluding his injury shortened 2010), Romo has finished in the top 10 fantasy QBs. He finished in the top 6 last year in yards, TDs, and completion percentage. The only other players to accomplish the same feat? Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning, both being taken several rounds before Romo. Despite the perception that he chokes towards the end of the year, Romo's only two single digit games were actually at the beginning of the year in Weeks 3 and 4. In Weeks 15 and 16 (most league's fantasy playoffs), he put up 21 and 32 points, respectively. He's currently projected as the 12th QB off the board, which is crazy for a QB that so consistently finishes in the top 10. I will gladly load up on RBs and WRs early and wait until the later rounds to draft a top 10 QB.
Bottom Line:
I'm biased here, but I expect a good year out of the Cowboys. I won't guarantee a playoff berth, but they will definitely be knocking on the door. The defense could actually wind up as a top 10 unit as they switched to a 4-3 with DeMarcus Ware now on the line and Sean Lee back at middle linebacker. Still, the story for this team is on offense as the passing game should thrive once again. Draft Murray with caution, but feel safe about the rest of them.
Matty O
Studs: LeSean McCoy, RB, DeSean Jackson, WR
Last year, McCoy was near the top of fantasy draft boards, going somewhere between three and five overall. After a disappointing 2012, his draft stock has dropped a bit, enabling you to get a potential top 3 RB in the late first, perhaps early second depending on how your league drafts. He missed four games last year due to concussion and was limited by Andy Reid's play calling. He still finished with 840 yards and made PPR owners happy with 54 receptions. His five total TDs are what killed him and was one of the reasons the Eagles wound up in last place. New head coach Chip Kelly will run the ball more and, given the wide open style of his offense, should be able to get McCoy into space where he is especially dangerous. I think McCoy has a monster comeback year and thrives in Kelly's system.
Jackson may not have made this section had it not been for Maclin's injury. Jackson once again becomes the number one guy for the Eagles. He had a rough and injury plagued year, playing in only 11 games. The key for Jackson is that Michael Vick appears to be at full health and he's proven he can put up numbers in the past. He had back to back 1,000 yard receiving years in 2009 and 2010, posting 15 TDs in the process. In their first preseason game, Vick connected on a long bomb to Jackson for a 47 yard TD. That's what I expect from Jackson this year. His value is very limited in PPR, but he will have at least three or four chances each game to connect on a long catch and/or TD. Currently projected as the 27th WR off the board, I think he has some value this year as a boom or bust WR.
Bust: None
Like many other teams that have no one to put in the bust category, the Eagles were pretty awful last year. The only one worthy of a bust prediction would be McCoy, but obviously I don't think that will happen. Apart from McCoy, Jackson, and possibly Bryce Brown and Michael Vick, the rest of the Eagles will go undrafted.
Sleeper: Michael Vick, QB
Vick is in the same mold of players like Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray; when they're healthy and play well, then they're fantasy gold, unfortunately they usually don't do that. Still, Vick is one of the most talented runners at the QB position and proved he can still throw the rock every once in a while (threw for over 300 yards three times in 2012). Kelly will bring in a new option read scheme, which could make Vick's rushing numbers even better. It will be up to him to avoid those big hits though. We've seen in the past how Vick's ability can win you a mtachup, so the fact that he is projected as the 16th QB off the board makes him a steal. I would rather select Vick (No. 16 QB) who has top 5 upside, rather than draft Joe Flacco (No. 15 QB) whose upside is little to none. At the very least if Vick goes off early in the season, he can be trade bait. Speed is the name of the game with Kelly's offense, and Vick still has plenty of it.
Bottom Line:
Fantasy wise, the offense looks very exciting. If Kelly can even come close to the numbers his teams put up at Oregon, then many of the Eagles' offensive players will be great to own. In real life, however, I still think they finish last in the division because of their porous defense. The good part about that for fantasy owners? Shootouts. Enter Jackson, McCoy, and Vick to put up numbers.
New York Giants
Studs: Victor Cruz, WR
Cruz is the only consistent, reliable weapon currently on the Giants' roster. With the departure of Ahmad Bradshaw, the backfield looks like it is heading towards committee territory with David Wilson and Andre Brown sharing time. The Giants' former number one WR Hakeem Nicks, can't stay healthy, and they lost their breakout tight end in Martellus Bennett to the Bears. Cruz should provide some stability though as he put up another 1,000 yard campaign and bumped his TDs into double digits (10). He would have had an even bigger year had it not been for Eli Manning's atrocious three game slump from Week 8 to Week 10 where he threw for an average of 177 yards for those three games with zero passing TDs. Barring another slump of that magnitude, Cruz will once again put up great numbers as he salsa dances your fantasy team into the playoffs.
Bust: Giants Running Backs
It is certainly possible that either David Wilson or Andre Brown emerges to distinguish themselves, but I'm not sure who at this point. Wilson got a lot of hype from last year as he had two great games to end the year; Week 14 against New Orleans and Week 17 against Philadelphia. He now gets the chance to take over the number one spot with Bradshaw gone, but Brown is lurking. Brown's hype was the exact opposite because his two great games were at the beginning of the year; Week 2 against Tampa Bay and Week 3 in Carolina. Brown actually finished last year with more carries and TDs than Wilson last year, yet is projected lower than him this year. I see a situation developing where either one goes off one week, then the other, etc., or they both perform okay most weeks, but limit each others' fantasy value. If the price is right, I might take one of these two, but probably only as my FLEX and certainly not a RB2.
Sleeper: Brandon Myers, TE
While Bennett was having a breakout year in New York, Myers was having one of his own in Oakland on a much worse team. Myers put up nearly 200 more yards than Bennett with 24 more receptions. Manning clearly enjoys throwing it to his tight ends as he turned Jake Ballard into a usable fantasy TE before Bennett came over from the Cowboys. Myers should slide right into that role and perform even better than both of them. Projected as the 10th TE off the board, Myers could be a value for those owners who wait on TE and load up on the other positions early. If, or when, Nicks gets injured, his value rises even more.
Bottom Line:
The Giants need more consistent QB play from Manning if they are to win the division this year. They have plenty of weapons to do so, including two running backs that are waiting to break out. Cruz is definitely the safest pick here with Nicks being a potential bargain if he can stay healthy (that's a big if).
Washington Redskins
Studs: Robert Griffin III, QB, Alfred Morris, RB
Even though people thought RG3 would be a great QB, I don't think anyone thought it would happen that quickly. Not only did he carry a lot of fantasy teams into the playoffs, he also resurrected the Redskins from annual cellar dwellers to the playoffs. He lit up fantasy scoreboards as he rushed for 826 yards and finished the year with 27 total TDs. While most people marvel at those rushing stats, I was more impressed with the fact that he only threw five interceptions last year which is unheard of for a rookie QB. If he can stay healthy this year, he is primed for another big season for fantasy owners and the Redskins.
Morris went from waiver wire fodder to fantasy gold last year. He finished as the number five fantasy running back, rushing for over 1500 yards and 13 TDs. RG3's injury actually helps Morris quite a bit because of the increase in carries he will get. The Redskins still want to run the ball, but I have a feeling the designed runs for RG3 will go down. Who will pick up those carries? Morris. His value in PPR leagues is much lower than standard given his mere 11 receptions last year, but he'll still be a starting RB for any fantasy team. I think his numbers dip a little bit this year (13 TDs is quite a bit), but not enough to push him out of the fantasy stud section.
Bust: RG3, QB
Similar to Vick, RG3's running style should worry people when it comes to injuries. He runs with reckless abandon and, although it's easy to say he will be more careful this year, I still think he will revert back to his old ways in the heat of the moment. In 2012, RG3 missed part of the Falcons game, missed part of the Ravens game, and missed the entire Browns game. I mentioned earlier how the Redskins will probably be more conservative with RG3's running, which is good for the Redskins but bad for fantasy owners. His running numbers masked his often times mediocre passing stats. Not including the games he didn't finish or didn't play in, RG3 threw for 215 yards or less in eight games last year. The final two games for the Redskins after he came back from injury? 298 yards, 2 TDs, one INT. Drew Brees puts up better numbers in three quarters. If he is limited in the running game at all, his passing deficiencies will start to show and he will no longer by the fantasy guarantee that he was last year.
Sleeper: Pierre Garcon, WR
When Garcon and RG3 were both healthy last year, they were one of the top QB-WR combos in the NFL. Garcon exploded with a 109 yard, 1 TD performance in Week 1, but was injured in the process. He didn't manage to really get his feet back under him until Week 12. Then, just like in Week 1, he took off posting three double digit games from Week 12 to Week 14. He finished the year quietly, however, coinciding with the Browns game RG3 missed and the final two games where RG3 was average at best as a passer. He is the unquestioned number one WR on this team, but is being drafted in fantasy as a FLEX. If both he and RG3 can stay healthy, Garcon is a top 5 WR. Yep, top 5. He may be the best value out there right now, showing just how deep WR is this year.
Bottom Line:
A year after winning the division, expectations are high in D.C. The Redskins' fate really all comes down to RG3's health and how his play style will be different. I still think this offense puts up numbers, but it might come from different places other than RG3's legs this year. If he goes down, I think Morris still has value, but everyone else is in trouble.
Dallas Cowboys
Studs: Dez Bryant, WR, Jason Witten, TE
Finally, Dez woke up and realized his potential. As a Cowboys fan, I was ecstatic when they drafted him back in 2010 as he put up great numbers in college and was, and still is, an athletic freak of nature. Inconsistency, injuries, and off the field problems soon ended that excitement as it looked like Dez was heading towards bust territory. Then, in Week 10 last year, everything just seemed to click. From Week 10 to the end of the year, he had only one single digit game and put up number one overall WR numbers. Three times he went for 145 yards or more including a 224 yard masterpiece in many people's fantasy championship game. He also scored at least one TD from Week 10 to Week 16. He put up phenomenal numbers for the year, despite starting the season very slow. He had three one point games and only two double digit games prior to Week 10. Of all the WRs not named Calvin Johnson, I think he has the best upside to be the number one overall WR this year.
Witten just keeps on chugging. Another 1,000 yard season as his chemistry with Tony Romo has continued. The only concerning thing with Witten is that his TD total has dropped the past two years, all the way down to three last year. Still, predicting TDs with tight ends is difficult so I wouldn't be too concerned. For PPR leagues, Witten is a monster as shown in Week 8 last year against the Giants. He actually scored more fantasy points for his receptions (18 points) than for his overall yardage (16 points). He is about as safe of a pick as you can get in all of fantasy football.
Bust: DeMarco Murray, RB
Darren McFadden, Dallas edition. That is what Murray is turning into as he has now missed nine games in two seasons. He can run with the best of them when he is out there, but the injuries are mounting. Even more concerning is that he had these problems in college as well, so it's likely that his body is fragile or broken down from these injuries, making it difficult for him to play a whole season. His TD total is also quite low as he only had four last year in 10 games. He is currently the 21st projected RB off the board meaning someone will have him as their RB2 in 12 team leagues, and someone will probably reach for him in 10 team leagues as their RB2. I might be comfortable with him as my FLEX, but there are safer, higher upside options out there.
Sleeper: Tony Romo, QB
Even as a Cowboys fan, I dislike Romo, but he is the ultimate fantasy vs reality player. The perception that he gets in reality is that he is no good, chokes in games, and makes bad decisions. In fantasy football, however, like any fantasy game, it is all about stats. That's it. And when it comes to stats, Romo is near the top. In every year since he has been a starter (excluding his injury shortened 2010), Romo has finished in the top 10 fantasy QBs. He finished in the top 6 last year in yards, TDs, and completion percentage. The only other players to accomplish the same feat? Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning, both being taken several rounds before Romo. Despite the perception that he chokes towards the end of the year, Romo's only two single digit games were actually at the beginning of the year in Weeks 3 and 4. In Weeks 15 and 16 (most league's fantasy playoffs), he put up 21 and 32 points, respectively. He's currently projected as the 12th QB off the board, which is crazy for a QB that so consistently finishes in the top 10. I will gladly load up on RBs and WRs early and wait until the later rounds to draft a top 10 QB.
Bottom Line:
I'm biased here, but I expect a good year out of the Cowboys. I won't guarantee a playoff berth, but they will definitely be knocking on the door. The defense could actually wind up as a top 10 unit as they switched to a 4-3 with DeMarcus Ware now on the line and Sean Lee back at middle linebacker. Still, the story for this team is on offense as the passing game should thrive once again. Draft Murray with caution, but feel safe about the rest of them.
Matty O
Sunday, August 18, 2013
2013 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
Studs: Andrew Luck, QB, Reggie Wayne, WR
While I thought Luck would have a fairly decent rookie year, I didn't think he would set the record for the most passing yards by a rookie in a season. He did this without his head coach for much of the season and without an established running back. Apart from Wayne on the outside, his weapons were very limited and very inexperienced. He also helped owners by adding on 255 rushing yards and 5 TDs. The only concerning thing is the 18 INTs as well as numerous potential INTs that were dropped. While not considered a sleeper, he is certainly undervalued as the 11th projected QB off the board. Even in a 10 team league, I would be fine with him as my QB for 2013.
Wayne was the sleeper pick I was most confident about last year. Peyton Manning was great no doubt about it, but from everything we saw in college at Stanford, it wasn't like Luck was going to be terrible. Wayne, who could have left Indy but decided to help Luck transition from the Manning era, was Luck's safety blanket throughout the year and was targeted frequently. In the Colts' first four games, Wayne hauled in 36 passes. His lowest reception total was three in Week 15 against Houston. Apart from that, he hovered consistently around 7 or 8 catches a game. He is getting older, and definitely has more value in a PPR league than a standard league, but Wayne is so skilled that even a QB switch from a legend to a rookie doesn't effect his performance.
Bust: Colts RBs
Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard are the front runners for the position currently with Donald Brown and Dalone Carter a distant third and fourth. Bradshaw, unfortunately, can never stay healthy as he has had foot and ankle problems throughout his career; one of the reasons why the Giants let him go. Ballard had some decent games last year, along with a very memorable twisting, turning, and diving touchdown against the Titans. Still, he never eclipsed 13 fantasy points, only had 100 yards rushing one time, and scored a grand total of two rushing TDs. Even if Bradshaw gets injured (72% chance he will) it's not like Ballard will come in and propel you to the fantasy playoffs. If I had to choose, I would rather draft Bradshaw and just pray he doesn't get injured and can return to his early New York Giant days, but I still wouldn't want either one.
Sleeper: T.Y. Hilton, WR
He might not even be a sleeper for some of you who owned him last year, but he is still going in the late, late rounds so he can certainly be a bargain. Hilton, playing opposite Wayne and learning from him, started the year very slow. He needed time to develop chemistry with Luck and time for Luck to stop looking Wayne's way every single throw. Once that happened, from Week 9-17, Hilton racked up four games of 100 yards or more, scored six TDs, and posted only three single digit games. He hopes to carry that momentum into this year. Even though I think Wayne still gets his share, I expect Hilton to see an increase in his targets this year resulting in some respectable numbers. He will probably be drafted for your bench or FLEX position, but I think he has WR2 potential. At the price you can get him for, he's one of the best bargains out there.
Bottom Line:
The passing game is the only thing that should concern you here fantasy wise. Along with Hilton, I wouldn't be surprised if former Luck Stanford teammate Coby Fleener finally emerges as a nice tight end option. I don't think he has the high upside as say a Jared Cook or Jordan Cameron, but he's more of a sure thing to put up decent numbers. He could sneak in as a playable TE1 by the end of the year. Despite making the playoffs last year, the Colts will look to go a step further and win the division crown from Houston. Luck and this offense will be the ones that make or break that dream.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Studs: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Cecil Shorts, WR
I thought MJD would have a down year last year, but not because of injury. The main concern coming out of last season's off season was whether MJD's long holdout would effect his play on the field. He put those concerns to rest fairly quickly by racking up 12 in Week 2 and 24 in Week 3. Then, Week 7 came around and he injured his foot and was out for the rest of the season. This injury may have been a blessing in disguise for his 2013 fantasy campaign as he's had extra time to rest. The offensive line and inconsistent play of the Jags' QBs is certainly a worry, but MJD is one of those rare backs that can still produce when those limitations are in play. I expect him to bounce back this year, though I won't say into the upper echelon of backs. I think he finishes in the top 15 at RB, making him a solid RB2 in most formats.
Shorts was a guy that was getting overlooked (no pun intended). MJD is in the backfield and Justin Blackmon was getting all the hype at WR. In comes Shorts who puts up close to 1000 yards and seven TDs from an on and off dose of Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert. Unlike most receivers that come out of nowhere and have one or two spectacular games then stink the rest of the time, Shorts was very consistent tallying nine double digit games out of the 14 he played. He did put up a couple zeroes last year, but I would blame that more on the Jags' horrendous QB play than Shorts. He is a consistent guy who, due to the Jags offense as a whole, won't win you any weeks, but will give you consistency week in and week out.
Bust: MJD, RB
Not a lot of options here, but there are a couple things that concern me about MJD. The first is this quick, no huddle offense the Jags have been running in preseason. I'm not sure if they will stick to that, but I think MJD would prefer to just line it up and ram it at the defense. At his age, I doubt that no huddling is the best thing for him. The second concern is that the Jags will most likely be playing from behind a lot. MJD won't be able to get the carries that he wants and needs to get those large yardage totals. While he is a respectable catcher out of the backfield, I think he would rather just run. The last concern is the schedule which is tough. They play the AFC West and NFC West this year which is no walk in the park for RBs, especially the latter. Like I said, I still think he finishes top 15, but this is just a warning to owners of the downsides of drafting MJD as well.
Sleeper: Shorts, WR
Somehow, despite his consistency and experts knowing the Jags will have to throw this year, Shorts is still projected as the 26th WR off the board. That's FLEX territory for 10 and 12 team leagues, although I believe he is a WR2. The volume will be there, as will the opportunity as Justin Blackmon is suspended for the first four games of the season. I'll mention this again in my upcoming "Draft Strategy" article, but this just shows you how deep WR is this year.
Bottom Line:
Unfortunately, even with a healthy MJD and youngster Shorts, the Jags will probably once again finish last in the AFC South due to their awful QBs. If they would have landed a QB or drafted one in the offseason, then there would be hope, but we've seen Gabbert and Henne be consistently inconsistent. MJD and Shorts are the only two you should be looking at here.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: Chris Johnson, RB
CJ2K rewarded his owners last year who had patience. Following a dreadful 2011 campaign, 2012 looked like much of the same early on. He was awful in the first five weeks, tallying only one double digit game and zero TDs. While his big breakout came in Week 7 to the tune of 31 points, I thought the key turnaround game was the week prior against Pittsburgh. Although he didn't score, he managed to get 91 yards on 19 carries against one of the best run Ds in the league. I think it was a real confidence booster and set him up for success the rest of the year. He put up six straight double digit points from Week 6 to Week 12 (bye week in Week 11). He was on and off down the stretch, but 2012 was certainly an improvement. The Titans once against bolstered their offensive line and have looked good in preseason so far. It is amazing that the number 15 projected RB has number 1 overall upside.
Bust: Titans WR
Trying to figure out who will have a good week in this receiving corps is darn near impossible. Last year the three starters, Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and Kendall Wright, all had at least 589 yards, but no more than 746. Combined, they had nine times where one of them went for double digits, but none of them did it in the same week. The Titans complicated things even further by drafting Justin Hunter to compete for a receiver spot. Britt is the highest projected one, but has had injury and off the field problems throughout his career. Maybe use one as a bye week fill in, but good luck guessing who that will be.
Sleeper: None
There's just not enough talent or opportunity there.
Bottom Line:
The Titans will most likely battle for last with the Jags in this division. If CJ2K returns to form, there's a chance that they could push Indy, but as a team, they're not good enough to catch the Colts. I'm predicting/hoping that CJ puts together a great season. He's a home run threat, but is just as likely to get you 4 or 5 points per week.
Houston Texans
Arian Foster, RB, Defense and Special Teams
There's not much left to say for Foster. A fantasy stud year in and year out, he continues to be the centerpiece of this Houston Texans' offense. He only had two single digit games last year and went for over 100 rushing yards seven times, including against the Bears in Chicago. He's a safe bet to be taken anywhere in the first round, but will most likely be off the board by the time the fourth pick rolls around.
Brian Cushing, Jonathan Joseph, Ed Reed, and J. J. Watt. Pretty good list of defenders, no? Reed provides that extra coverage over the top for this defense that they were lacking last year as they were oft beat on long balls. Reed also brings his interception and run back ability, which will help boost fantasy stats. Cushing was hurt last year, but now one of the best linebackers in the game looks to be at full health. Joseph is a good corner who usually matches up against the other team's number one WR. Add in J. J. Swatt and this defense should perform very well this year. They avoid some of the more explosive offenses this year (Saints, Packers) and welcome the likes of the Raiders and Chargers. Expect good things from this D/ST.
Bust: Andre Johnson, WR
Johnson had a nice year last year, but has had injury history on a team that likes to run the ball. Most of his production comes from play action plays, but his targets in the red zone are limited by Foster and the Texans' commitment to the run. He posted nine single digit games last year and his two biggest games came against Jacksonville and Indy, not exactly the most fierce some of all pass defenses. I feel like he will always be the odd man out when it comes to touches for this offense. Teams can double cover him when the Texans are in a passing situation because they don't have someone opposite Johnson. Or, at least they didn't...
Sleeper: DeAndre Hopkins, WR
A bit of a risky call here with Hopkins considering I just mentioned how run oriented the Texans are. Still when teams are focusing on Johnson, or if Johnson gets injured, Hopkins has the ability to run good routes, burn people deep, and make solid catches. He certainly won't put up WR1 numbers and probably not Andre Johnson numbers, but the fact that he's currently going undrafted or in the last few rounds makes him an excellent pickup. If Johnson gets hurt, I think Hopkins becomes a solid FLEX. Even if Johnson stays healthy, I think Hopkins' speed and play making ability could merit him bye week fill in or borderline FLEX consideration.
Bottom Line:
After not being challenged in 2011, the Texans found out last year just how close the Colts are to them. The return of Brian Cushing is huge for the defense and if Hopkins can develop into another threat opposite Johnson, then the offense will look even better than they have. Talented roster here in Houston as they seek another division title.
Matty O
Studs: Andrew Luck, QB, Reggie Wayne, WR
While I thought Luck would have a fairly decent rookie year, I didn't think he would set the record for the most passing yards by a rookie in a season. He did this without his head coach for much of the season and without an established running back. Apart from Wayne on the outside, his weapons were very limited and very inexperienced. He also helped owners by adding on 255 rushing yards and 5 TDs. The only concerning thing is the 18 INTs as well as numerous potential INTs that were dropped. While not considered a sleeper, he is certainly undervalued as the 11th projected QB off the board. Even in a 10 team league, I would be fine with him as my QB for 2013.
Wayne was the sleeper pick I was most confident about last year. Peyton Manning was great no doubt about it, but from everything we saw in college at Stanford, it wasn't like Luck was going to be terrible. Wayne, who could have left Indy but decided to help Luck transition from the Manning era, was Luck's safety blanket throughout the year and was targeted frequently. In the Colts' first four games, Wayne hauled in 36 passes. His lowest reception total was three in Week 15 against Houston. Apart from that, he hovered consistently around 7 or 8 catches a game. He is getting older, and definitely has more value in a PPR league than a standard league, but Wayne is so skilled that even a QB switch from a legend to a rookie doesn't effect his performance.
Bust: Colts RBs
Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard are the front runners for the position currently with Donald Brown and Dalone Carter a distant third and fourth. Bradshaw, unfortunately, can never stay healthy as he has had foot and ankle problems throughout his career; one of the reasons why the Giants let him go. Ballard had some decent games last year, along with a very memorable twisting, turning, and diving touchdown against the Titans. Still, he never eclipsed 13 fantasy points, only had 100 yards rushing one time, and scored a grand total of two rushing TDs. Even if Bradshaw gets injured (72% chance he will) it's not like Ballard will come in and propel you to the fantasy playoffs. If I had to choose, I would rather draft Bradshaw and just pray he doesn't get injured and can return to his early New York Giant days, but I still wouldn't want either one.
Sleeper: T.Y. Hilton, WR
He might not even be a sleeper for some of you who owned him last year, but he is still going in the late, late rounds so he can certainly be a bargain. Hilton, playing opposite Wayne and learning from him, started the year very slow. He needed time to develop chemistry with Luck and time for Luck to stop looking Wayne's way every single throw. Once that happened, from Week 9-17, Hilton racked up four games of 100 yards or more, scored six TDs, and posted only three single digit games. He hopes to carry that momentum into this year. Even though I think Wayne still gets his share, I expect Hilton to see an increase in his targets this year resulting in some respectable numbers. He will probably be drafted for your bench or FLEX position, but I think he has WR2 potential. At the price you can get him for, he's one of the best bargains out there.
Bottom Line:
The passing game is the only thing that should concern you here fantasy wise. Along with Hilton, I wouldn't be surprised if former Luck Stanford teammate Coby Fleener finally emerges as a nice tight end option. I don't think he has the high upside as say a Jared Cook or Jordan Cameron, but he's more of a sure thing to put up decent numbers. He could sneak in as a playable TE1 by the end of the year. Despite making the playoffs last year, the Colts will look to go a step further and win the division crown from Houston. Luck and this offense will be the ones that make or break that dream.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Studs: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Cecil Shorts, WR
I thought MJD would have a down year last year, but not because of injury. The main concern coming out of last season's off season was whether MJD's long holdout would effect his play on the field. He put those concerns to rest fairly quickly by racking up 12 in Week 2 and 24 in Week 3. Then, Week 7 came around and he injured his foot and was out for the rest of the season. This injury may have been a blessing in disguise for his 2013 fantasy campaign as he's had extra time to rest. The offensive line and inconsistent play of the Jags' QBs is certainly a worry, but MJD is one of those rare backs that can still produce when those limitations are in play. I expect him to bounce back this year, though I won't say into the upper echelon of backs. I think he finishes in the top 15 at RB, making him a solid RB2 in most formats.
Shorts was a guy that was getting overlooked (no pun intended). MJD is in the backfield and Justin Blackmon was getting all the hype at WR. In comes Shorts who puts up close to 1000 yards and seven TDs from an on and off dose of Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert. Unlike most receivers that come out of nowhere and have one or two spectacular games then stink the rest of the time, Shorts was very consistent tallying nine double digit games out of the 14 he played. He did put up a couple zeroes last year, but I would blame that more on the Jags' horrendous QB play than Shorts. He is a consistent guy who, due to the Jags offense as a whole, won't win you any weeks, but will give you consistency week in and week out.
Bust: MJD, RB
Not a lot of options here, but there are a couple things that concern me about MJD. The first is this quick, no huddle offense the Jags have been running in preseason. I'm not sure if they will stick to that, but I think MJD would prefer to just line it up and ram it at the defense. At his age, I doubt that no huddling is the best thing for him. The second concern is that the Jags will most likely be playing from behind a lot. MJD won't be able to get the carries that he wants and needs to get those large yardage totals. While he is a respectable catcher out of the backfield, I think he would rather just run. The last concern is the schedule which is tough. They play the AFC West and NFC West this year which is no walk in the park for RBs, especially the latter. Like I said, I still think he finishes top 15, but this is just a warning to owners of the downsides of drafting MJD as well.
Sleeper: Shorts, WR
Somehow, despite his consistency and experts knowing the Jags will have to throw this year, Shorts is still projected as the 26th WR off the board. That's FLEX territory for 10 and 12 team leagues, although I believe he is a WR2. The volume will be there, as will the opportunity as Justin Blackmon is suspended for the first four games of the season. I'll mention this again in my upcoming "Draft Strategy" article, but this just shows you how deep WR is this year.
Bottom Line:
Unfortunately, even with a healthy MJD and youngster Shorts, the Jags will probably once again finish last in the AFC South due to their awful QBs. If they would have landed a QB or drafted one in the offseason, then there would be hope, but we've seen Gabbert and Henne be consistently inconsistent. MJD and Shorts are the only two you should be looking at here.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: Chris Johnson, RB
CJ2K rewarded his owners last year who had patience. Following a dreadful 2011 campaign, 2012 looked like much of the same early on. He was awful in the first five weeks, tallying only one double digit game and zero TDs. While his big breakout came in Week 7 to the tune of 31 points, I thought the key turnaround game was the week prior against Pittsburgh. Although he didn't score, he managed to get 91 yards on 19 carries against one of the best run Ds in the league. I think it was a real confidence booster and set him up for success the rest of the year. He put up six straight double digit points from Week 6 to Week 12 (bye week in Week 11). He was on and off down the stretch, but 2012 was certainly an improvement. The Titans once against bolstered their offensive line and have looked good in preseason so far. It is amazing that the number 15 projected RB has number 1 overall upside.
Bust: Titans WR
Trying to figure out who will have a good week in this receiving corps is darn near impossible. Last year the three starters, Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and Kendall Wright, all had at least 589 yards, but no more than 746. Combined, they had nine times where one of them went for double digits, but none of them did it in the same week. The Titans complicated things even further by drafting Justin Hunter to compete for a receiver spot. Britt is the highest projected one, but has had injury and off the field problems throughout his career. Maybe use one as a bye week fill in, but good luck guessing who that will be.
Sleeper: None
There's just not enough talent or opportunity there.
Bottom Line:
The Titans will most likely battle for last with the Jags in this division. If CJ2K returns to form, there's a chance that they could push Indy, but as a team, they're not good enough to catch the Colts. I'm predicting/hoping that CJ puts together a great season. He's a home run threat, but is just as likely to get you 4 or 5 points per week.
Houston Texans
Arian Foster, RB, Defense and Special Teams
There's not much left to say for Foster. A fantasy stud year in and year out, he continues to be the centerpiece of this Houston Texans' offense. He only had two single digit games last year and went for over 100 rushing yards seven times, including against the Bears in Chicago. He's a safe bet to be taken anywhere in the first round, but will most likely be off the board by the time the fourth pick rolls around.
Brian Cushing, Jonathan Joseph, Ed Reed, and J. J. Watt. Pretty good list of defenders, no? Reed provides that extra coverage over the top for this defense that they were lacking last year as they were oft beat on long balls. Reed also brings his interception and run back ability, which will help boost fantasy stats. Cushing was hurt last year, but now one of the best linebackers in the game looks to be at full health. Joseph is a good corner who usually matches up against the other team's number one WR. Add in J. J. Swatt and this defense should perform very well this year. They avoid some of the more explosive offenses this year (Saints, Packers) and welcome the likes of the Raiders and Chargers. Expect good things from this D/ST.
Bust: Andre Johnson, WR
Johnson had a nice year last year, but has had injury history on a team that likes to run the ball. Most of his production comes from play action plays, but his targets in the red zone are limited by Foster and the Texans' commitment to the run. He posted nine single digit games last year and his two biggest games came against Jacksonville and Indy, not exactly the most fierce some of all pass defenses. I feel like he will always be the odd man out when it comes to touches for this offense. Teams can double cover him when the Texans are in a passing situation because they don't have someone opposite Johnson. Or, at least they didn't...
Sleeper: DeAndre Hopkins, WR
A bit of a risky call here with Hopkins considering I just mentioned how run oriented the Texans are. Still when teams are focusing on Johnson, or if Johnson gets injured, Hopkins has the ability to run good routes, burn people deep, and make solid catches. He certainly won't put up WR1 numbers and probably not Andre Johnson numbers, but the fact that he's currently going undrafted or in the last few rounds makes him an excellent pickup. If Johnson gets hurt, I think Hopkins becomes a solid FLEX. Even if Johnson stays healthy, I think Hopkins' speed and play making ability could merit him bye week fill in or borderline FLEX consideration.
Bottom Line:
After not being challenged in 2011, the Texans found out last year just how close the Colts are to them. The return of Brian Cushing is huge for the defense and if Hopkins can develop into another threat opposite Johnson, then the offense will look even better than they have. Talented roster here in Houston as they seek another division title.
Matty O
Thursday, August 15, 2013
2013 Fantasy Breakdown: NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Studs: Doug Martin, RB, Vincent Jackson, WR
Martin was on people's radar last year, but I don't think anyone expected him to do that well. Unsure if he would even get the starting job over LeGarrette Blount, Martin struggled out of the gate rushing for less than 100 yards in his first four games with only one TD. After the bye week, however, he started putting up productive numbers. His coming out party, or rather parties, were in Weeks 8 and 9. Week 8 saw him rack up 32 fantasy points in Minnesota, only to follow that up with a whopping 51 in Oakland in Week 9. Unheard of for a fantasy player. Now he is the unquestioned starter and has a QB with limited skills. The Bucs should run the ball a lot and give Martin plenty of opportunities to put up numbers.
The fact that Jackson was productive for the Bucs and Phillip Rivers struggled so much without him, goes to show just how good of a receiver Jackson is. He topped 100 yards five times last year including the pass-a-palooza against the Saints in Week 7 where he racked up 216 yards on only seven catches. As mentioned before, he is limited by QB Josh Freeman's skill, but he's definitely the number one target on that team with Mike Williams a distant second. Martin's emergence might even work in Jackson's favor as team's may stack the box now that they have had a whole offseason to prepare for Martin. If that is the case, Freeman can use the play action and find Jackson deep. When Freeman has time, he can certainly sling the rock, and Jackson will be doing most of the catching.
Bust: Martin, RB
Weeks 8 and 9 were awesome for Martin, but the rest of the games? He was so-so. He only had one other game where he went over 20 points, and was held to single digit points in four games last year including a two in Week 15 against the Saints. How many playoff runs did that end for Martin owners? There is also the fact that he won't surprise anyone this year and defenses will be ready for the Muscle Hamster in 2013. I expect more teams to stack the box and dare Freeman to throw it. While Martin may be able to break through, I'm not completely sold on his draft position where he is going as high as number three. That's very high for a second year player who scored one third of his points in two games last year. I'd rather take a proven player like Marshawn Lynch or Jamaal Charles than Martin.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Revis Island can turn a sub par defense into an elite one. On top of that, they picked up former 49er and two time Pro Bowler, in safety Dashon Goldson. Team those two up with safety Mark Barron and you have a respectable secondary. Despite getting torched by teams last year, the Bucs actually boasted the best run defense in terms of yards per game in the league. Keeping that front seven intact and adding skilled players in the secondary makes this defense one to reckon with. They get a bit of a bad break by having three explosive offenses within their division (Carolina, New Orleans, Atlanta). Still, they might surprise those teams and fantasy owners alike when they lock down teams and become a very good fantasy defense.
Bottom Line:
Even with all the firepower in Atlanta and New Orleans, I think Tampa Bay will have something to say before the division is decided. Although Martin is in the bust section, I still think he will do well. I expect them to run even more this year and try to keep the opposing offense off the field. Even when that offense does come on, Revis Island will be waiting with a stout run defense. This team could surprise people and, depending on what happens during their head to head matchups, could unseat Atlanta for the division crown.
Carolina Panthers
Studs: Cam Newton, QB, Steve Smith, WR
Newton, due to his running prowess, will always have the potential to put up big fantasy numbers. Unlike some other running QBs in the league (Vick, Kaepernick), his arm is unquestioned. While his decision making could still use some work at times, he does have a cannon for an arm. His rushing yards and especially TDs are even more valuable in standard scoring leagues. It's an interesting year for Cam as the owner has expressed his concern about Cam not winning in real life, yet he has produced since he came into the league in fantasy. Despite the front office wanting Cam to win more, I doubt the Panthers do as the other teams in this division are simply more talented. I expect the Panthers to come in last, but for Cam to still have a good year.
As Cam goes, so goes Steve Smith. There are plenty of reasons not to believe in Smith; he's 34, he's constantly double teamed, and he's also on the small side. Year in and year out, however, he continues to produce respectable fantasy numbers. His value in PPR leagues is much higher than in standard, but he will still put up WR2 and certainly FLEX production. His low TDs total last year are what brought his overall fantasy numbers down. While I do not expect that number to drastically go up, I'm not really expecting him to put up that production anyways. Where he is drafted provides great value as he will be Cam's first option in the Panthers' passing game.
Bust: Any Panthers Running Back
I did this last year, and I'll probably do it every year until either DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart leave Carolina. Throw in Mike Tolbert as well. Then take into account that they have to compete with their own QB for rushing yards and rushing TDs and you can see why you want to avoid this situation. If one or two of the three gets injured or traded, then the odd one out is the one to own. Still, I wouldn't take any of them until the situation becomes clearer.
Sleeper: Greg Olsen, TE
At a position that has very few sure things this year, Olsen seems like a safe pick with upside. He finished with close to 850 yards last year with 5 TDs. They lined him up in the slot often, as he became the second option after Steve Smith. He has a big frame and above average speed for a TE. If Cam has a better statistical year this year, then Olsen could very well be the primary beneficiary. Instead of springing for Graham in one of the earlier rounds, look to pick up Olsen in the middle rounds. At best, he could be a top three fantasy TE, at worst he will probably perform where you drafted him. High ceiling and high floor for this guy.
Bottom Line:
The Panthers are an explosive offense that handcuff fantasy owners because of the committee that they have at running back. If they could sort that out, that would make the Panthers much more attractive fantasy wise. As it stands Cam is probably the safest bet here with Smith being guaranteed solid production, but nothing more. It's possible Brandon LaFell finally emerges this year, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Atlanta Falcons
Studs: Steven Jackson, RB, Julio Jones, WR, Roddy White, WR, Matt Ryan, QB
I have honestly been waiting for this division because now I can talk about the player I think will make the biggest jump this year, Steven Jackson. He's currently going in the second round, but I think he is a first round back and will finish in the top 5 for backs this year. Why? Well, for starters, the fact that he produced for the Rams and their miserable offense is a testament to his skill. Secondly, despite his large frame, he is a great pass catching back who is now on a team that threw that ball 615 times last year. Third, consider that Michael Turner put up respectable fantasy numbers with the Falcons. I love me some Turner the Burner, but anyone that thinks that he is better than S-Jax is crazy. The Falcons high flying act should open up the line of scrimmage for S-Jax and/or put the Falcons up by so much that they can just feed S-Jax late in the game to rack up those garbage yards. I am very high on S-Jax this year and I imagine he will be on a lot of teams that win their leagues this year.
Jones has possibly the biggest upside of any fantasy player, but is limited by the numerous other weapons on this team. Still, he's a big play threat every time he touches the ball, and I expect him to see even more targets this year. His only weakness seems to be playing at home. I don't think I've ever seen a more interesting discrepancy between home and away stats. His home numbers (in fantasy points): 1, 3, 6, 12, 3, 4, 20, 5. His away numbers: 22, 12, 15, 18, 7, 20, 12, 13. Shouldn't influence you taking him in the second round, but just a weird disparity.
Opposite Jones is the veteran Roddy White who just keeps doing his thing. Despite Jones getting all the preseason hype this year, it was White that finished last year with more targets, catches, and receiving yards than Jones. Jones, however, is more athletically gifted at this stage in their careers and can more easily make something out of nothing. These two are almost developing into the Panthers backfield situation as there were only three games last year where both had double digit points. It was usually either Jones going big or White scoring big. I think that gets pulled more in Jones's favor this year, but I still wouldn't mind having White as my WR1 and certainly as my WR2.
Ryan, or Matty Ice, went for 4700 yards last year and bumped his TD total up to 32. The addition of S-Jax only further helps Ryan who should see those numbers stay the same, and hopefully see his interceptions (14) drop. Ryan only had two single digit games last year; Week 6 against Oakland where he scored 8 fantasy points, and a five interception debacle against Arizona where he scored 2 fantasy points (Atlanta won both games somehow). He's a safe bet to be a top 5 QB, and possibly a top 3 QB if the offense clicks like it looks on paper.
Bust: Tony Gonzalez, TE
Gonzo did finish in the top three for TEs in nearly every major statistical category last year. Still, he's not getting any younger and S-Jax in town means even less targets than he was getting last year when Julio and Roddy were around. Apart from the players that retire early, every player has a year where they fall off the proverbial cliff no matter how good they are. I believed in him prior to last year, but not in 2013. He is TD dependent and certainly lacks the speed he used to have to break a big play. I think he fades in this explosive Falcons offense.
Sleeper: None
I mentioned every single relevant Falcons fantasy player above.
Bottom Line:
The division winners last year will be the favorites to do so again despite three dangerous teams lurking in their division. If everything goes according to plan, then this could be one of the greatest offenses the NFL has ever seen. You have an elite QB, two elite WRs, an elite RB, and pretty good, although aging, TE. Feel confident drafting anyone on this offense.
New Orleans Saints
Studs: Drew Brees, QB, Jimmy Graham, TE, Darren Sproles, RB, Marques Colston, WR
Even without Sean Payton, Brees still put up monster numbers. 5,177 yards and 43 TDs?! And he's still projected to go behind Aaron Rodgers in the draft? C'mon man. He only had one single digit game last year which was the disaster 5 interception game against the Falcons in Week 13. That anomaly aside, he went for more than 20 points nine times last year, despite rushing for five total yards and only one rushing TD. Now he gets offensive minded Payton back at the helm. All I can say is yikes! While Rodgers will probably be the first QB off your draft board, it is Brees that should be the first one off.
Graham missed time last year and still finished as fantasy's top TE. Now that Gronk is questionable coming back from an injury, Graham looks to be the clear cut number on TE in fantasy and it's not even close. His size and production allows owners to essentially treat him as another WR, which would have been unheard of for a TE a few years ago (exception: Antonio Gates). I've already mentioned that I'm high on the Brees-Payton combo returning to New Orleans and I think Graham will benefit the most.
Sproles is a beast for PPR leagues, but still serviceable in standard ones as well. Although Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas see their share of playing time, it is Sproles who has consistently separated himself from the other two. They move him all over the field and he is a matchup nightmare in open space against a linebacker. His first two games last year he registered double digit fantasy points without taking a single hand off. He's a player with a diverse skill set that drives defenses crazy, but makes fantasy owners happy.
Colston won't be a spectacular WR, but he'll be consistent. While Graham is driving defenses up the field, Colston usually hangs out in the area underneath, giving Brees a tall target to throw to. Every once in a while he'll have a monster game like in Week 5 against San Diego where he put up 131 yards and 3 TDs, but mostly he'll just put up decent numbers. Similar to Sproles, Colston is even more valuable in PPR as Brees slings the ball around on a vast majority of plays. He is a solid WR2.
Bust: None
I think everyone will be drafted where they need to be with this team. You'll either be getting your value or something better if you pick a Saint this year.
Sleeper: Nick Toon, WR
Toon, unless you have a high number of teams in your league, will not be drafted. That doesn't mean he should go unnoticed. Now that Devery Henderson is gone and Joe Morgan got injured in training camp, the WR3 slot opens up behind Colston and Lance Moore. The Saints did just sign Steve Breaston, but I would not be surprised if they gave the young, unproven rookie a shot, rather than the older, proven he's not that good, veteran. Brees threw the ball 670 times last season and those footballs have to go to someone. Even though the Saints claim they will run the ball more in 2013, I think those attempts stay around the same, if not go up. If Toon can solidify himself as the third WR, it will be interesting to see how he meshes in that offense.
Bottom Line:
Ironically, the best helper of this explosive offense might just be their defense. Their defense is so bad that Brees has to get into shootouts just to win football games. That's unfortunate for the Saints, but awesome for fantasy football players. This offense should be even more explosive than last year, if that's even possible, and Brees and Graham should both wind up as the number one player at their position at the end of the year.
Matty O
Studs: Doug Martin, RB, Vincent Jackson, WR
Martin was on people's radar last year, but I don't think anyone expected him to do that well. Unsure if he would even get the starting job over LeGarrette Blount, Martin struggled out of the gate rushing for less than 100 yards in his first four games with only one TD. After the bye week, however, he started putting up productive numbers. His coming out party, or rather parties, were in Weeks 8 and 9. Week 8 saw him rack up 32 fantasy points in Minnesota, only to follow that up with a whopping 51 in Oakland in Week 9. Unheard of for a fantasy player. Now he is the unquestioned starter and has a QB with limited skills. The Bucs should run the ball a lot and give Martin plenty of opportunities to put up numbers.
The fact that Jackson was productive for the Bucs and Phillip Rivers struggled so much without him, goes to show just how good of a receiver Jackson is. He topped 100 yards five times last year including the pass-a-palooza against the Saints in Week 7 where he racked up 216 yards on only seven catches. As mentioned before, he is limited by QB Josh Freeman's skill, but he's definitely the number one target on that team with Mike Williams a distant second. Martin's emergence might even work in Jackson's favor as team's may stack the box now that they have had a whole offseason to prepare for Martin. If that is the case, Freeman can use the play action and find Jackson deep. When Freeman has time, he can certainly sling the rock, and Jackson will be doing most of the catching.
Bust: Martin, RB
Weeks 8 and 9 were awesome for Martin, but the rest of the games? He was so-so. He only had one other game where he went over 20 points, and was held to single digit points in four games last year including a two in Week 15 against the Saints. How many playoff runs did that end for Martin owners? There is also the fact that he won't surprise anyone this year and defenses will be ready for the Muscle Hamster in 2013. I expect more teams to stack the box and dare Freeman to throw it. While Martin may be able to break through, I'm not completely sold on his draft position where he is going as high as number three. That's very high for a second year player who scored one third of his points in two games last year. I'd rather take a proven player like Marshawn Lynch or Jamaal Charles than Martin.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Revis Island can turn a sub par defense into an elite one. On top of that, they picked up former 49er and two time Pro Bowler, in safety Dashon Goldson. Team those two up with safety Mark Barron and you have a respectable secondary. Despite getting torched by teams last year, the Bucs actually boasted the best run defense in terms of yards per game in the league. Keeping that front seven intact and adding skilled players in the secondary makes this defense one to reckon with. They get a bit of a bad break by having three explosive offenses within their division (Carolina, New Orleans, Atlanta). Still, they might surprise those teams and fantasy owners alike when they lock down teams and become a very good fantasy defense.
Bottom Line:
Even with all the firepower in Atlanta and New Orleans, I think Tampa Bay will have something to say before the division is decided. Although Martin is in the bust section, I still think he will do well. I expect them to run even more this year and try to keep the opposing offense off the field. Even when that offense does come on, Revis Island will be waiting with a stout run defense. This team could surprise people and, depending on what happens during their head to head matchups, could unseat Atlanta for the division crown.
Carolina Panthers
Studs: Cam Newton, QB, Steve Smith, WR
Newton, due to his running prowess, will always have the potential to put up big fantasy numbers. Unlike some other running QBs in the league (Vick, Kaepernick), his arm is unquestioned. While his decision making could still use some work at times, he does have a cannon for an arm. His rushing yards and especially TDs are even more valuable in standard scoring leagues. It's an interesting year for Cam as the owner has expressed his concern about Cam not winning in real life, yet he has produced since he came into the league in fantasy. Despite the front office wanting Cam to win more, I doubt the Panthers do as the other teams in this division are simply more talented. I expect the Panthers to come in last, but for Cam to still have a good year.
As Cam goes, so goes Steve Smith. There are plenty of reasons not to believe in Smith; he's 34, he's constantly double teamed, and he's also on the small side. Year in and year out, however, he continues to produce respectable fantasy numbers. His value in PPR leagues is much higher than in standard, but he will still put up WR2 and certainly FLEX production. His low TDs total last year are what brought his overall fantasy numbers down. While I do not expect that number to drastically go up, I'm not really expecting him to put up that production anyways. Where he is drafted provides great value as he will be Cam's first option in the Panthers' passing game.
Bust: Any Panthers Running Back
I did this last year, and I'll probably do it every year until either DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart leave Carolina. Throw in Mike Tolbert as well. Then take into account that they have to compete with their own QB for rushing yards and rushing TDs and you can see why you want to avoid this situation. If one or two of the three gets injured or traded, then the odd one out is the one to own. Still, I wouldn't take any of them until the situation becomes clearer.
Sleeper: Greg Olsen, TE
At a position that has very few sure things this year, Olsen seems like a safe pick with upside. He finished with close to 850 yards last year with 5 TDs. They lined him up in the slot often, as he became the second option after Steve Smith. He has a big frame and above average speed for a TE. If Cam has a better statistical year this year, then Olsen could very well be the primary beneficiary. Instead of springing for Graham in one of the earlier rounds, look to pick up Olsen in the middle rounds. At best, he could be a top three fantasy TE, at worst he will probably perform where you drafted him. High ceiling and high floor for this guy.
Bottom Line:
The Panthers are an explosive offense that handcuff fantasy owners because of the committee that they have at running back. If they could sort that out, that would make the Panthers much more attractive fantasy wise. As it stands Cam is probably the safest bet here with Smith being guaranteed solid production, but nothing more. It's possible Brandon LaFell finally emerges this year, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Atlanta Falcons
Studs: Steven Jackson, RB, Julio Jones, WR, Roddy White, WR, Matt Ryan, QB
I have honestly been waiting for this division because now I can talk about the player I think will make the biggest jump this year, Steven Jackson. He's currently going in the second round, but I think he is a first round back and will finish in the top 5 for backs this year. Why? Well, for starters, the fact that he produced for the Rams and their miserable offense is a testament to his skill. Secondly, despite his large frame, he is a great pass catching back who is now on a team that threw that ball 615 times last year. Third, consider that Michael Turner put up respectable fantasy numbers with the Falcons. I love me some Turner the Burner, but anyone that thinks that he is better than S-Jax is crazy. The Falcons high flying act should open up the line of scrimmage for S-Jax and/or put the Falcons up by so much that they can just feed S-Jax late in the game to rack up those garbage yards. I am very high on S-Jax this year and I imagine he will be on a lot of teams that win their leagues this year.
Jones has possibly the biggest upside of any fantasy player, but is limited by the numerous other weapons on this team. Still, he's a big play threat every time he touches the ball, and I expect him to see even more targets this year. His only weakness seems to be playing at home. I don't think I've ever seen a more interesting discrepancy between home and away stats. His home numbers (in fantasy points): 1, 3, 6, 12, 3, 4, 20, 5. His away numbers: 22, 12, 15, 18, 7, 20, 12, 13. Shouldn't influence you taking him in the second round, but just a weird disparity.
Opposite Jones is the veteran Roddy White who just keeps doing his thing. Despite Jones getting all the preseason hype this year, it was White that finished last year with more targets, catches, and receiving yards than Jones. Jones, however, is more athletically gifted at this stage in their careers and can more easily make something out of nothing. These two are almost developing into the Panthers backfield situation as there were only three games last year where both had double digit points. It was usually either Jones going big or White scoring big. I think that gets pulled more in Jones's favor this year, but I still wouldn't mind having White as my WR1 and certainly as my WR2.
Ryan, or Matty Ice, went for 4700 yards last year and bumped his TD total up to 32. The addition of S-Jax only further helps Ryan who should see those numbers stay the same, and hopefully see his interceptions (14) drop. Ryan only had two single digit games last year; Week 6 against Oakland where he scored 8 fantasy points, and a five interception debacle against Arizona where he scored 2 fantasy points (Atlanta won both games somehow). He's a safe bet to be a top 5 QB, and possibly a top 3 QB if the offense clicks like it looks on paper.
Bust: Tony Gonzalez, TE
Gonzo did finish in the top three for TEs in nearly every major statistical category last year. Still, he's not getting any younger and S-Jax in town means even less targets than he was getting last year when Julio and Roddy were around. Apart from the players that retire early, every player has a year where they fall off the proverbial cliff no matter how good they are. I believed in him prior to last year, but not in 2013. He is TD dependent and certainly lacks the speed he used to have to break a big play. I think he fades in this explosive Falcons offense.
Sleeper: None
I mentioned every single relevant Falcons fantasy player above.
Bottom Line:
The division winners last year will be the favorites to do so again despite three dangerous teams lurking in their division. If everything goes according to plan, then this could be one of the greatest offenses the NFL has ever seen. You have an elite QB, two elite WRs, an elite RB, and pretty good, although aging, TE. Feel confident drafting anyone on this offense.
New Orleans Saints
Studs: Drew Brees, QB, Jimmy Graham, TE, Darren Sproles, RB, Marques Colston, WR
Even without Sean Payton, Brees still put up monster numbers. 5,177 yards and 43 TDs?! And he's still projected to go behind Aaron Rodgers in the draft? C'mon man. He only had one single digit game last year which was the disaster 5 interception game against the Falcons in Week 13. That anomaly aside, he went for more than 20 points nine times last year, despite rushing for five total yards and only one rushing TD. Now he gets offensive minded Payton back at the helm. All I can say is yikes! While Rodgers will probably be the first QB off your draft board, it is Brees that should be the first one off.
Graham missed time last year and still finished as fantasy's top TE. Now that Gronk is questionable coming back from an injury, Graham looks to be the clear cut number on TE in fantasy and it's not even close. His size and production allows owners to essentially treat him as another WR, which would have been unheard of for a TE a few years ago (exception: Antonio Gates). I've already mentioned that I'm high on the Brees-Payton combo returning to New Orleans and I think Graham will benefit the most.
Sproles is a beast for PPR leagues, but still serviceable in standard ones as well. Although Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas see their share of playing time, it is Sproles who has consistently separated himself from the other two. They move him all over the field and he is a matchup nightmare in open space against a linebacker. His first two games last year he registered double digit fantasy points without taking a single hand off. He's a player with a diverse skill set that drives defenses crazy, but makes fantasy owners happy.
Colston won't be a spectacular WR, but he'll be consistent. While Graham is driving defenses up the field, Colston usually hangs out in the area underneath, giving Brees a tall target to throw to. Every once in a while he'll have a monster game like in Week 5 against San Diego where he put up 131 yards and 3 TDs, but mostly he'll just put up decent numbers. Similar to Sproles, Colston is even more valuable in PPR as Brees slings the ball around on a vast majority of plays. He is a solid WR2.
Bust: None
I think everyone will be drafted where they need to be with this team. You'll either be getting your value or something better if you pick a Saint this year.
Sleeper: Nick Toon, WR
Toon, unless you have a high number of teams in your league, will not be drafted. That doesn't mean he should go unnoticed. Now that Devery Henderson is gone and Joe Morgan got injured in training camp, the WR3 slot opens up behind Colston and Lance Moore. The Saints did just sign Steve Breaston, but I would not be surprised if they gave the young, unproven rookie a shot, rather than the older, proven he's not that good, veteran. Brees threw the ball 670 times last season and those footballs have to go to someone. Even though the Saints claim they will run the ball more in 2013, I think those attempts stay around the same, if not go up. If Toon can solidify himself as the third WR, it will be interesting to see how he meshes in that offense.
Bottom Line:
Ironically, the best helper of this explosive offense might just be their defense. Their defense is so bad that Brees has to get into shootouts just to win football games. That's unfortunate for the Saints, but awesome for fantasy football players. This offense should be even more explosive than last year, if that's even possible, and Brees and Graham should both wind up as the number one player at their position at the end of the year.
Matty O
Reasons To Be Excited For The Premier League On NBC
Although soccer may have worldwide appeal, it certainly lags behind in popularity here in the US. Thankfully, the NBC Sports Network decided to make a bold move and air numerous English Premier League (EPL) games and stream all of them via the NBC Sports Live Extra App. So rather than having the occasional Manchester United vs (insert bottom standing team here) on ESPN or Fox, you'll now be able to see Manchester United vs Manchester City on a major US cable network. I have waited a long time for a major network to pick up a full season of the League and hopefully this will spark some interest here in the states. Here are some reasons why you should also be excited for the EPL coming to NBC.
Crowds
I've always argued that the three rowdiest and loudest crowds in sports are college basketball crowds, college football crowds, and soccer crowds. The main thing that all three have in common is the high amount of passion that they have for their team. Here's a photo from a Manchester City vs Manchester United match. Those are the Man U fans on the right, Man City fans on the left and an entire column of security who stayed there the whole game. That might speak to more rowdiness than passion, but you won't see that at a Red Sox Yankees game.
Similar to college stadiums, some EPL teams have certain sections reserved for die hard fans, similar to student sections a la Cameron Crazies, that are designed to rattle the opponent. Throughout the game you'll hear chants, songs, cheers, and jeers from the first whistle to the last. An NBA crowd during a regular season game doing that? Forget about it. While the crowd is just one part of the whole sporting experience, it can make an impact on how enjoyable the game is to watch. I'd rather watch a LSU-Eastern Illinois game at Tiger Stadium than watch it at EIU's stadium. The atmosphere is more intense, adding to the whole experience. You'll find plenty of raucous crowds in the EPL, making the games quite enjoyable to watch.
Morning Sports
I don't know about you, but I can only take Sports Center so many times. Unfortunately, there's nothing else sports related on so it's either watch SC or listen to Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith argue about Tebow for the umpteenth time. Relief comes in the form of EPL games which, due to the time difference, will have the majority of their games aired before noon. The opening day of the EPL has game start times of 6:45 am, 9 am, and 11:30 am central time, with the two earlier slots on NBC Sports Network and the latter on NBC. I would much rather watch soccer, or rather any sport, than hear about Mark Sanchez getting a hangnail in practice.
One thing that concerned me at the start was that games would overlap with college football and/or the NFL. While some of them do, it wouldn't cut into the football games that much because the start times are so early. This could actually work out perfectly if the EPL games finish on time. For instance, on Sunday, September 22nd, Man U plays Man City at 10am central. NFL games don't start until noon so whatever overlap there will be, won't affect your NFL watching that much.
No Commercials
Extra point, good. Let's go to commercial. Kickoff for a touchback. We'll be right back after this commercial. Three and out, punt. Fair catch. We'll be right back after this commercial. This was the exact sequence I saw in a preseason game earlier this year, and a sequence that is frequent in the NFL. NBA is the same way especially in the last minute of a close game. I'll know more about the new Lexus car model that is coming out than I will about the two teams playing by the end of the game. Soccer doesn't play that game. It's 45 minutes of straight play, plus stoppage time which is usually no more than four or five minutes. Then halftime, then repeat.
People criticize soccer for being too boring, but I would argue that when you factor in the time outs and commercial breaks, that soccer has the same number of exciting moments as football, if not more. If football players had to play for 90+ minutes with only halftime as a break, I'm sure there would be some lulls in the action. It would be ridiculous to think you could go full speed for 90 minutes (exception: Adrian Peterson). Commercial breaks just ruin the flow of the games. With soccer, anything can happen at anytime which makes every kick of the ball that much more important. Even if you're not that interested in the game, it's still something good to have on in the background while you're doing something. I do that with baseball games now. So forgot those small commercial breaks where Bob Rohrman tries to sell me a Hyundai; now I can enjoy sports for a guaranteed 45 minutes before I see a commercial.
International Appeal
America is a melting pot of different ethnicities, yet does a sub par job of representing that diversity in sports. Baseball and recently the NBA have been good about expanding, but the NFL, America's most popular sport, falls way behind. It makes it much easier for someone to get interested and involved in a sport if someone from their home country and/or town plays for a team in said sport. Let's take Manchester United's upcoming squad as an example, as they are one of the best teams in the EPL and probably the most well known here in the US.
They feature players from (not including England) Spain, Brazil, France, Northern Ireland, Wales, Denmark, Mexico, Serbia, Portugal, Netherlands, Chile, Scotland, Ecuador, Italy, Japan, and Belgium. Now let's say that Shinji Kagawa (Japan) finishes in the top 10 in scoring this year in the EPL. You don't think that Japanese interest in soccer in the US (Japanese people in the U.S. ≈ 1.2 million) would increase due to the exposure that he would get with the NBC Sports Network? Of course it would. There would probably be more interest in Kagawa scoring than if Forte scored in the NFL, even if football is the preferred sport of interest. I think the increased exposure will help drive an interest in soccer in numerous ethnic groups, allowing the sport to become more significant in the U.S.
Bad Team vs Bad Team Matters
Last year, Week 17 of the NFL season, Kansas City (2-14) played San Diego (7-9). Did anyone watch or care? Didn't think so. That's because what was the incentive there to win? If anything, there was an incentive to lose to obtain a higher draft pick. So in that scenario, the winner actually loses in the long run, and doesn't do anything to help their cause in the current season. Luckily the EPL has a promotion and relegation system that takes care of this problem.
The way this works is that, after the season is over, the bottom three teams from the EPL move down and are replaced by the top three teams from the league below them. A demotion from the EPL is an important issue as TV rights, money, and general interest are all lost. You can imagine then, how fierce the race to stay out of those last three spots is. If the bottom two teams are playing on the last weekend of the season, you can expect a competitive, intense game. It might not be the prettiest of all things since these teams aren't exactly the most skilled, but the atmosphere and excitement should reach a fever pitch. You won't get that in any of the major sports over here because there is really no threat to losing late in the year if you're already eliminated from the playoffs. This makes it so the games other than Man U vs Man City can be looked forward to and watched.
Rivalries
Rivalries are what make sports. You can go 0-15, but if the Bears beat the Packers to ruin their perfect season, then all is well in the world. Rivalries bring out the best, or worst, in fans, players, and cities. Being a Cowboys fan, watching a game against the Broncos is okay, but watching one against the Giants is much more intriguing. I have no problem if Peyton Manning stays in the game and goes for 300 yards, but I would want Demarcus Ware to injure Eli Manning on the first play of the game. Rivalries add the needed spice to long sports seasons and the EPL is no different.
These rivalries are made even more intense simply because of the size of England. There are some great rivalries here in the US, but the US is pretty big. Imagine if 20 teams (size of the EPL) was confined in a space the size of about Wyoming. You can imagine how easy it would be to ignite rivalries. Add in the fact that many of these teams have seen each other often, whether it is within the league or other tournaments, and you have everything you need for a good rivalry. Skim this article and tell me honestly if anything in the US gets that rowdy. A 2 1/2 mile alcohol exclusion zone? Golf balls and darts that were to be used to throw at opposing players confiscated?
There are three kinds of rivalries in my opinion and that's players vs players, fans vs fans, and players vs fans. EPL rivalries seem to cover all three. For instance, a players vs players rivalry would be something like Eagles-Giants where the players really do not like each other. A fans vs fans rivalry would be something like Mets-Yankees. The two fan bases can't stand each other, but apart from when Roger Clemens threw a broken bat at Mike Piazza, the play on the field has been tame. A player vs fan rivalry would be something like Maryland-Duke in college basketball. Maryland fans make it a point to harass Duke's players as much as possible, regardless of their records. The EPL incorporates all of these elements, making rivalries in the EPL some of the more explosive in any sport in the world.
Make US Soccer Stronger
The popularity that hopefully grows from seeing more high level soccer could influence younger, highly skilled athletes to choose soccer instead of football or basketball. Since countries can only pull from those that are citizens, it puts the US at a disadvantage since the culture of soccer is not as prevalent as it is in the Brazils and Spains of the world. The demand for a better US soccer team is there as my Facebook blows up every time the US national team plays a game. Still, the fact that the US needs a second half hat trick to beat Bosnia by one goal shows how far behind the US is. By comparison, in the 2013 Confederations Cup, Spain put in all of their back ups (their B-Team) and beat Tahiti 10-0. Clearly there is work to be done.
Things seem to be trending in the right direction though. Clint Dempsey, one of the more popular US players, decided to come back to the States and leave the EPL club Tottenham Hotspur and join the Seattle Sounders. This is a great move for US soccer and is something that more US born players should do. The MLS is considered a joke because most of the US's highly skilled players go play overseas. If more would stay, then the MLS might turn into a formidable league and gain popularity within the States. Another good thing are the new concussion studies that are coming out. Now, I'm not saying concussions are good, but the results of these studies might cause parents to steer their kids towards soccer rather than football. This way soccer would acquire the naturally gifted athletes, making it easier to develop them into skilled soccer players. Even though the games are in England, I think seeing the likes of Chelsea, Man U, and Man City play instead of Chicago, Dallas, and New York will spark interest in youths, leading to wanting to play soccer, leading to honing their soccer skills, leading to a better US national team that can legitimately contend for a World Cup.
The EPL on NBC starts at 6:45 am central time on August 17th with Liverpool vs Stoke. Give the EPL a chance even if you have preconceived notions of what soccer is. Hopefully you can learn to appreciate the sport and be all "soccer-ed" up by the time next summer rolls around when the US will battle in Brazil for the 2014 World Cup.
Matty O
Crowds
I've always argued that the three rowdiest and loudest crowds in sports are college basketball crowds, college football crowds, and soccer crowds. The main thing that all three have in common is the high amount of passion that they have for their team. Here's a photo from a Manchester City vs Manchester United match. Those are the Man U fans on the right, Man City fans on the left and an entire column of security who stayed there the whole game. That might speak to more rowdiness than passion, but you won't see that at a Red Sox Yankees game.
Similar to college stadiums, some EPL teams have certain sections reserved for die hard fans, similar to student sections a la Cameron Crazies, that are designed to rattle the opponent. Throughout the game you'll hear chants, songs, cheers, and jeers from the first whistle to the last. An NBA crowd during a regular season game doing that? Forget about it. While the crowd is just one part of the whole sporting experience, it can make an impact on how enjoyable the game is to watch. I'd rather watch a LSU-Eastern Illinois game at Tiger Stadium than watch it at EIU's stadium. The atmosphere is more intense, adding to the whole experience. You'll find plenty of raucous crowds in the EPL, making the games quite enjoyable to watch.
Morning Sports
I don't know about you, but I can only take Sports Center so many times. Unfortunately, there's nothing else sports related on so it's either watch SC or listen to Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith argue about Tebow for the umpteenth time. Relief comes in the form of EPL games which, due to the time difference, will have the majority of their games aired before noon. The opening day of the EPL has game start times of 6:45 am, 9 am, and 11:30 am central time, with the two earlier slots on NBC Sports Network and the latter on NBC. I would much rather watch soccer, or rather any sport, than hear about Mark Sanchez getting a hangnail in practice.
One thing that concerned me at the start was that games would overlap with college football and/or the NFL. While some of them do, it wouldn't cut into the football games that much because the start times are so early. This could actually work out perfectly if the EPL games finish on time. For instance, on Sunday, September 22nd, Man U plays Man City at 10am central. NFL games don't start until noon so whatever overlap there will be, won't affect your NFL watching that much.
No Commercials
Extra point, good. Let's go to commercial. Kickoff for a touchback. We'll be right back after this commercial. Three and out, punt. Fair catch. We'll be right back after this commercial. This was the exact sequence I saw in a preseason game earlier this year, and a sequence that is frequent in the NFL. NBA is the same way especially in the last minute of a close game. I'll know more about the new Lexus car model that is coming out than I will about the two teams playing by the end of the game. Soccer doesn't play that game. It's 45 minutes of straight play, plus stoppage time which is usually no more than four or five minutes. Then halftime, then repeat.
People criticize soccer for being too boring, but I would argue that when you factor in the time outs and commercial breaks, that soccer has the same number of exciting moments as football, if not more. If football players had to play for 90+ minutes with only halftime as a break, I'm sure there would be some lulls in the action. It would be ridiculous to think you could go full speed for 90 minutes (exception: Adrian Peterson). Commercial breaks just ruin the flow of the games. With soccer, anything can happen at anytime which makes every kick of the ball that much more important. Even if you're not that interested in the game, it's still something good to have on in the background while you're doing something. I do that with baseball games now. So forgot those small commercial breaks where Bob Rohrman tries to sell me a Hyundai; now I can enjoy sports for a guaranteed 45 minutes before I see a commercial.
International Appeal
America is a melting pot of different ethnicities, yet does a sub par job of representing that diversity in sports. Baseball and recently the NBA have been good about expanding, but the NFL, America's most popular sport, falls way behind. It makes it much easier for someone to get interested and involved in a sport if someone from their home country and/or town plays for a team in said sport. Let's take Manchester United's upcoming squad as an example, as they are one of the best teams in the EPL and probably the most well known here in the US.
They feature players from (not including England) Spain, Brazil, France, Northern Ireland, Wales, Denmark, Mexico, Serbia, Portugal, Netherlands, Chile, Scotland, Ecuador, Italy, Japan, and Belgium. Now let's say that Shinji Kagawa (Japan) finishes in the top 10 in scoring this year in the EPL. You don't think that Japanese interest in soccer in the US (Japanese people in the U.S. ≈ 1.2 million) would increase due to the exposure that he would get with the NBC Sports Network? Of course it would. There would probably be more interest in Kagawa scoring than if Forte scored in the NFL, even if football is the preferred sport of interest. I think the increased exposure will help drive an interest in soccer in numerous ethnic groups, allowing the sport to become more significant in the U.S.
Bad Team vs Bad Team Matters
Last year, Week 17 of the NFL season, Kansas City (2-14) played San Diego (7-9). Did anyone watch or care? Didn't think so. That's because what was the incentive there to win? If anything, there was an incentive to lose to obtain a higher draft pick. So in that scenario, the winner actually loses in the long run, and doesn't do anything to help their cause in the current season. Luckily the EPL has a promotion and relegation system that takes care of this problem.
The way this works is that, after the season is over, the bottom three teams from the EPL move down and are replaced by the top three teams from the league below them. A demotion from the EPL is an important issue as TV rights, money, and general interest are all lost. You can imagine then, how fierce the race to stay out of those last three spots is. If the bottom two teams are playing on the last weekend of the season, you can expect a competitive, intense game. It might not be the prettiest of all things since these teams aren't exactly the most skilled, but the atmosphere and excitement should reach a fever pitch. You won't get that in any of the major sports over here because there is really no threat to losing late in the year if you're already eliminated from the playoffs. This makes it so the games other than Man U vs Man City can be looked forward to and watched.
Rivalries
Rivalries are what make sports. You can go 0-15, but if the Bears beat the Packers to ruin their perfect season, then all is well in the world. Rivalries bring out the best, or worst, in fans, players, and cities. Being a Cowboys fan, watching a game against the Broncos is okay, but watching one against the Giants is much more intriguing. I have no problem if Peyton Manning stays in the game and goes for 300 yards, but I would want Demarcus Ware to injure Eli Manning on the first play of the game. Rivalries add the needed spice to long sports seasons and the EPL is no different.
These rivalries are made even more intense simply because of the size of England. There are some great rivalries here in the US, but the US is pretty big. Imagine if 20 teams (size of the EPL) was confined in a space the size of about Wyoming. You can imagine how easy it would be to ignite rivalries. Add in the fact that many of these teams have seen each other often, whether it is within the league or other tournaments, and you have everything you need for a good rivalry. Skim this article and tell me honestly if anything in the US gets that rowdy. A 2 1/2 mile alcohol exclusion zone? Golf balls and darts that were to be used to throw at opposing players confiscated?
There are three kinds of rivalries in my opinion and that's players vs players, fans vs fans, and players vs fans. EPL rivalries seem to cover all three. For instance, a players vs players rivalry would be something like Eagles-Giants where the players really do not like each other. A fans vs fans rivalry would be something like Mets-Yankees. The two fan bases can't stand each other, but apart from when Roger Clemens threw a broken bat at Mike Piazza, the play on the field has been tame. A player vs fan rivalry would be something like Maryland-Duke in college basketball. Maryland fans make it a point to harass Duke's players as much as possible, regardless of their records. The EPL incorporates all of these elements, making rivalries in the EPL some of the more explosive in any sport in the world.
Make US Soccer Stronger
The popularity that hopefully grows from seeing more high level soccer could influence younger, highly skilled athletes to choose soccer instead of football or basketball. Since countries can only pull from those that are citizens, it puts the US at a disadvantage since the culture of soccer is not as prevalent as it is in the Brazils and Spains of the world. The demand for a better US soccer team is there as my Facebook blows up every time the US national team plays a game. Still, the fact that the US needs a second half hat trick to beat Bosnia by one goal shows how far behind the US is. By comparison, in the 2013 Confederations Cup, Spain put in all of their back ups (their B-Team) and beat Tahiti 10-0. Clearly there is work to be done.
Things seem to be trending in the right direction though. Clint Dempsey, one of the more popular US players, decided to come back to the States and leave the EPL club Tottenham Hotspur and join the Seattle Sounders. This is a great move for US soccer and is something that more US born players should do. The MLS is considered a joke because most of the US's highly skilled players go play overseas. If more would stay, then the MLS might turn into a formidable league and gain popularity within the States. Another good thing are the new concussion studies that are coming out. Now, I'm not saying concussions are good, but the results of these studies might cause parents to steer their kids towards soccer rather than football. This way soccer would acquire the naturally gifted athletes, making it easier to develop them into skilled soccer players. Even though the games are in England, I think seeing the likes of Chelsea, Man U, and Man City play instead of Chicago, Dallas, and New York will spark interest in youths, leading to wanting to play soccer, leading to honing their soccer skills, leading to a better US national team that can legitimately contend for a World Cup.
The EPL on NBC starts at 6:45 am central time on August 17th with Liverpool vs Stoke. Give the EPL a chance even if you have preconceived notions of what soccer is. Hopefully you can learn to appreciate the sport and be all "soccer-ed" up by the time next summer rolls around when the US will battle in Brazil for the 2014 World Cup.
Matty O
Sunday, August 11, 2013
2013 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC North
Cleveland Browns
Studs: Trent Richardson, RB
Richardson is the Browns' offense. He runs inside, outside, and catches the ball. This is great news if you're looking for a player that will get a lot of touches, but worrying news when it comes to injury concerns. He already struggled with injuries last year including a broken rib and ankle problems, and has not exactly been a picture of health early on in this off season either. Still, the Browns really don't have anyone else to go to, so expect them to keep feeding him the rock until, or if, he gets injured. As long as he can tough it out, he's a top 10 back and worthy of a late first round pick.
Bust: None
As previously mentioned, their offense was centered around one player. Their defense is towards the bottom so there's really no bust candidates on this team.
Sleeper: Jordan Cameron, TE
Cameron has done little in his short two year NFL career with the Browns, but now that the starting TE position is open, he looks like the best candidate to fill that void. He's similar to the new age pass catching tight ends that have come into the league as of late (Gronk, Graham) and at 6'5", 245 lbs., he certainly has the tools to become a great pass catcher. Norv Turner came over from San Diego and is now calling the shots on offense. Remember how he turned Antonio Gates into a star in San Diego? I would not be surprised if he looks to do the same here given Cameron's size and Weeden's limited passing skills as a QB. Depending on how big your league is, he will probably go undrafted. Maybe snag him with your last pick if you missed out on the TE train, or scoop him up off waivers. Keep an eye on him to see how he does early in the year.
Bottom Line:
The Browns are still the Browns, and no amount of T-Rich can change that. I do think they will be better this year as T-Rich and Weeden will have another year under their belt and WRs such as Josh Gordon showed they have ability. The defense picked up Paul Kruger and they still have one of the best defensive backs in the game in Joe Haden. Still, T-Rich is the only fantasy relevant person on this team at this time, as the Browns will likely finish last in the AFC North once again.
Cincinnati Bengals
Studs: AJ Green, WR
Green is living up to his number four overall NFL draft selection by following up his rookie year with an even better 2012. Green went for 1,350 receiving yards and 11 TDs. Rather than simply line him up on the outside, the Bengals did a great job last year of moving him all around the formations. He is a great route runner, has great hands, and is clearly QB Andy Dalton's favorite target. He played in all 16 games last year and posted two games of 20+ points. Consider him a good bet to finish in the top 5 WRs, as he will probably be the second WR off the board.
Bust: None
Sorry to give you guys two "nones" in a row, but who fits that description on this team? Dalton will go undrafted. Their defense, if anything, is underrated. AJ is going to put up numbers. Well, what about their RBs? Well, allow me to direct you to the sleeper section for the Bengals.
Sleeper: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB
The popular belief in fantasy football right now is that by the end of the year, rookie Giovani Bernard will replace BJGE and receive the majority of the carries. While that might happen, I don't think it will be until very late in the year and I think BJGE will put up decent fantasy numbers before it's all said and done. People lost interest in BJGE when he left New England claiming he benefited from an explosive offense and great offensive line. True, but that doesn't mean he's a scrub. He rushed for 1,094 yards last year, which was more than Richardson, LeSean McCoy, Steven Jackson, and tied with Matt Forte. He also tagged on six TDs, which was more than Forte, Jamaal Charles, and Jackson, and tied with CJ Spiller and Chris Johnson. So why is he projected as the 29th back off the board? I'm not sure. At worst, he will see a 50/50 split to start the season, and at best he'll get a good chunk of the carries once again. He certainly won't win you a week, and he will have those spurts where he puts up less than stellar numbers. Still, getting him after Ryan Mathews, a handful of unproven rookies, and the oft injured Ahmad Bradshaw? Sign me up.
Bottom Line:
The RB situation is the one to watch in Cincy to see if Bernard does overtake BJGE. He certainly has more explosive ability, but it will be up to the coaching staff to decide if they trust the rookie enough to carry the load. Green is the safest bet on this team and it's possible that a WR2 will emerge, although I don't think he will be fantasy relevant except in deep leagues.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs: Antonio Brown, WR, Ben Roethlisberger, QB
Brown was a borderline choice to make this category, but I'll put him here now that Mike Wallace is gone. Brown should be Ben's go to guy and will be very attractive in PPR leagues. He had 66 receptions despite missing three games and being the number two receiver behind Wallace. Those 66 receptions were still more than Percy Harvin, Anquan Boldin, and yes, his own teammate, Wallace. Brown will be moved all over the place as he is a great possession receiver with the ability to break lose every so often. He showed great chemistry with Big Ben and should benefit from Todd Haley's quick pass offense. He should be a solid WR2 for this upcoming year.
Big Ben's 2012 will probably be remembered for his injury problems, as the Steelers went 1-2 in the three games he missed, then lost three straight when he came back from his injury. Don't forget, however, that he started the year on a tear. He threw for over 240 yards in each of his first three games, accumulating eight TDs and only one INT. He cooled off after that start, but still threw for over 300 yards two more times and put up two more 20+ games. Although he clashed with Haley on his philosophy of offense, it seemed to do Big Ben good as the quick throws added up. Now, with even more time to familiarize himself with Haley's system, Big Ben should be a viable starting fantasy QB.
Bust: Le'Veon Bell, RB
The thing causing Bell to move up draft boards is the hype. He's a second round pick coming into a backfield where he has the opportunity to (and probably will) be the number one back and get the majority of the carries. People that have seen him in camp have raved about how well he is performing and Pittsburgh is known for its smash mouth style. Or are they? Haley has changed how the Steelers' offense looks. Gone are the days of smashing the line of scrimmage with backs and in are these quick passes to get receivers in space. The Steelers finished in the bottom half of the league in rushing attempts last year with a mere 412. On the flip side, they finished tied for 10th in passing attempts last year. I expect that discrepancy to become even greater now that Haley's system is firmly in place. Bell is a respectable pass catcher, but certainly has less than spectacular speed. He's still an unproven rookie so while the opportunity is there, I think that the bar is being set too high as he will finish the year as maybe a FLEX option.
Sleeper: Big Ben, QB
I should point out that, on top of what I said earlier, Big Ben is currently projected as the 14th QB off the board. This means that, in most leagues, he won't be a starter for a team. Despite missing time last year, he only had one single digit game where he played the entire game. That is the same amount as Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning. He also put up 31 against Oakland in Week 3. 31 points is a mark that Brees, Manning, and Colin Kaepernick were not able to reach last year. And yet he's the 14th off the board? Depending on who falls where in your draft, if you can load up on the other positions and let your league mates take QBs early, Big Ben would not be the worst guy to have as your starter. Definitely draft a backup and don't be too shocked if he misses some time due to injury. Still, for a guy that will probably put up around 250 and 2 TDs each game including the occasional QB sneak, I would think that 14th overall is much too low.
Bottom Line:
Lots of uncertainty here with the Steelers. They lost their starting WR and still have a mess to sort out at running back as they got rid of Rashard Mendenhall and brought in Bell. I think the Steelers could surprise some people with the turnover in Baltimore (spoiler alert) and the Bengals being vulnerable. The defense was still pretty good, just not at forcing turnovers last year. Expect those numbers to go up as the Steelers return to the playoffs in 2013.
Baltimore Ravens
Studs: Ray Rice, RB
Rice, similar to T-Rich, does it all. His running speaks for itself, but his ability to catch the ball and make plays is what sets him apart and keeps him in the top 10 fantasy picks year in and year out. Late July brought good news for Rice as the Ravens resigned Pro Bowl fullback Vonta Leach. Leach should continue to pave the way for Rice, and the screen game and dump off yards should make owners very pleased. There are rumblings that backup running back Bernard Pierce will take some of Rice's carries, but I doubt it will be significant enough to keep from Rice finishing in the top 10 RBs again.
Bust: Torrey Smith, WR
Smith will drive you crazy if he is on your team. He is one of the most up and down players that I've ever seen. His ups from last year included a 24 pointer against the Patriots, and an 18 pointer against the Raiders. His lows included a zero against the Steelers, a one against the Broncos, and a two against the Redskins. Smith does have the luxury of being the man at WR now that Boldin is gone, although I'm not sure if that is the best thing for him. Smith, similar to a DeSean Jackson, is a straight line speed player. As long as teams can keep a safety over the top, it really limits what Smith can do offensively. He'll probably be drafted as a FLEX for some team, possibly even a WR2. I don't think he's either as the lows are too devastating and frequent to make up for his occasional high. Draft him at your own risk.
Sleeper: Dallas Clark, TE
This was convenient for me that this story broke today, otherwise coming up with a sleeper would have been tough. Clark signed with the Ravens due to Dennis Pitta's season ending injury and Ed Dickson's injury issues as well. While I think Dickson recovers from the injury, I like Clark as one of those older players that has one more good year left in him. Clark was limited by Josh Freeman last year, and saw less than ideal receptions. Now he moves to a team that, in 2012, saw Pitta tally almost as many receptions (61) as Clark had targets (76). He might be 34 years old, but he's proven in Indy that he can be a productive real life and fantasy tight end. I think he clicks with Flacco and becomes his go to safety valve as Clark becomes a playable starting TE in fantasy by the end of the year.
Bottom Line:
The mass exodus of players from the Ravens' defense could have more of an impact than the Ravens realize. Obviously the defense will struggle to find an identity, but I also think this will force the offense into catch up mode for a lot of games. This is bad news for Rice owners as this means less carries, and bad news for the offense as Flacco is not the guy I would want leading a comeback game in and game out. He's just too inconsistent. Rice should still be taken in the top 10, probably the top 8 of drafts, but barring a major injury, the rest of the Ravens can be passed on.
Matty O.
Studs: Trent Richardson, RB
Richardson is the Browns' offense. He runs inside, outside, and catches the ball. This is great news if you're looking for a player that will get a lot of touches, but worrying news when it comes to injury concerns. He already struggled with injuries last year including a broken rib and ankle problems, and has not exactly been a picture of health early on in this off season either. Still, the Browns really don't have anyone else to go to, so expect them to keep feeding him the rock until, or if, he gets injured. As long as he can tough it out, he's a top 10 back and worthy of a late first round pick.
Bust: None
As previously mentioned, their offense was centered around one player. Their defense is towards the bottom so there's really no bust candidates on this team.
Sleeper: Jordan Cameron, TE
Cameron has done little in his short two year NFL career with the Browns, but now that the starting TE position is open, he looks like the best candidate to fill that void. He's similar to the new age pass catching tight ends that have come into the league as of late (Gronk, Graham) and at 6'5", 245 lbs., he certainly has the tools to become a great pass catcher. Norv Turner came over from San Diego and is now calling the shots on offense. Remember how he turned Antonio Gates into a star in San Diego? I would not be surprised if he looks to do the same here given Cameron's size and Weeden's limited passing skills as a QB. Depending on how big your league is, he will probably go undrafted. Maybe snag him with your last pick if you missed out on the TE train, or scoop him up off waivers. Keep an eye on him to see how he does early in the year.
Bottom Line:
The Browns are still the Browns, and no amount of T-Rich can change that. I do think they will be better this year as T-Rich and Weeden will have another year under their belt and WRs such as Josh Gordon showed they have ability. The defense picked up Paul Kruger and they still have one of the best defensive backs in the game in Joe Haden. Still, T-Rich is the only fantasy relevant person on this team at this time, as the Browns will likely finish last in the AFC North once again.
Cincinnati Bengals
Studs: AJ Green, WR
Green is living up to his number four overall NFL draft selection by following up his rookie year with an even better 2012. Green went for 1,350 receiving yards and 11 TDs. Rather than simply line him up on the outside, the Bengals did a great job last year of moving him all around the formations. He is a great route runner, has great hands, and is clearly QB Andy Dalton's favorite target. He played in all 16 games last year and posted two games of 20+ points. Consider him a good bet to finish in the top 5 WRs, as he will probably be the second WR off the board.
Bust: None
Sorry to give you guys two "nones" in a row, but who fits that description on this team? Dalton will go undrafted. Their defense, if anything, is underrated. AJ is going to put up numbers. Well, what about their RBs? Well, allow me to direct you to the sleeper section for the Bengals.
Sleeper: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB
The popular belief in fantasy football right now is that by the end of the year, rookie Giovani Bernard will replace BJGE and receive the majority of the carries. While that might happen, I don't think it will be until very late in the year and I think BJGE will put up decent fantasy numbers before it's all said and done. People lost interest in BJGE when he left New England claiming he benefited from an explosive offense and great offensive line. True, but that doesn't mean he's a scrub. He rushed for 1,094 yards last year, which was more than Richardson, LeSean McCoy, Steven Jackson, and tied with Matt Forte. He also tagged on six TDs, which was more than Forte, Jamaal Charles, and Jackson, and tied with CJ Spiller and Chris Johnson. So why is he projected as the 29th back off the board? I'm not sure. At worst, he will see a 50/50 split to start the season, and at best he'll get a good chunk of the carries once again. He certainly won't win you a week, and he will have those spurts where he puts up less than stellar numbers. Still, getting him after Ryan Mathews, a handful of unproven rookies, and the oft injured Ahmad Bradshaw? Sign me up.
Bottom Line:
The RB situation is the one to watch in Cincy to see if Bernard does overtake BJGE. He certainly has more explosive ability, but it will be up to the coaching staff to decide if they trust the rookie enough to carry the load. Green is the safest bet on this team and it's possible that a WR2 will emerge, although I don't think he will be fantasy relevant except in deep leagues.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs: Antonio Brown, WR, Ben Roethlisberger, QB
Brown was a borderline choice to make this category, but I'll put him here now that Mike Wallace is gone. Brown should be Ben's go to guy and will be very attractive in PPR leagues. He had 66 receptions despite missing three games and being the number two receiver behind Wallace. Those 66 receptions were still more than Percy Harvin, Anquan Boldin, and yes, his own teammate, Wallace. Brown will be moved all over the place as he is a great possession receiver with the ability to break lose every so often. He showed great chemistry with Big Ben and should benefit from Todd Haley's quick pass offense. He should be a solid WR2 for this upcoming year.
Big Ben's 2012 will probably be remembered for his injury problems, as the Steelers went 1-2 in the three games he missed, then lost three straight when he came back from his injury. Don't forget, however, that he started the year on a tear. He threw for over 240 yards in each of his first three games, accumulating eight TDs and only one INT. He cooled off after that start, but still threw for over 300 yards two more times and put up two more 20+ games. Although he clashed with Haley on his philosophy of offense, it seemed to do Big Ben good as the quick throws added up. Now, with even more time to familiarize himself with Haley's system, Big Ben should be a viable starting fantasy QB.
Bust: Le'Veon Bell, RB
The thing causing Bell to move up draft boards is the hype. He's a second round pick coming into a backfield where he has the opportunity to (and probably will) be the number one back and get the majority of the carries. People that have seen him in camp have raved about how well he is performing and Pittsburgh is known for its smash mouth style. Or are they? Haley has changed how the Steelers' offense looks. Gone are the days of smashing the line of scrimmage with backs and in are these quick passes to get receivers in space. The Steelers finished in the bottom half of the league in rushing attempts last year with a mere 412. On the flip side, they finished tied for 10th in passing attempts last year. I expect that discrepancy to become even greater now that Haley's system is firmly in place. Bell is a respectable pass catcher, but certainly has less than spectacular speed. He's still an unproven rookie so while the opportunity is there, I think that the bar is being set too high as he will finish the year as maybe a FLEX option.
Sleeper: Big Ben, QB
I should point out that, on top of what I said earlier, Big Ben is currently projected as the 14th QB off the board. This means that, in most leagues, he won't be a starter for a team. Despite missing time last year, he only had one single digit game where he played the entire game. That is the same amount as Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning. He also put up 31 against Oakland in Week 3. 31 points is a mark that Brees, Manning, and Colin Kaepernick were not able to reach last year. And yet he's the 14th off the board? Depending on who falls where in your draft, if you can load up on the other positions and let your league mates take QBs early, Big Ben would not be the worst guy to have as your starter. Definitely draft a backup and don't be too shocked if he misses some time due to injury. Still, for a guy that will probably put up around 250 and 2 TDs each game including the occasional QB sneak, I would think that 14th overall is much too low.
Bottom Line:
Lots of uncertainty here with the Steelers. They lost their starting WR and still have a mess to sort out at running back as they got rid of Rashard Mendenhall and brought in Bell. I think the Steelers could surprise some people with the turnover in Baltimore (spoiler alert) and the Bengals being vulnerable. The defense was still pretty good, just not at forcing turnovers last year. Expect those numbers to go up as the Steelers return to the playoffs in 2013.
Baltimore Ravens
Studs: Ray Rice, RB
Rice, similar to T-Rich, does it all. His running speaks for itself, but his ability to catch the ball and make plays is what sets him apart and keeps him in the top 10 fantasy picks year in and year out. Late July brought good news for Rice as the Ravens resigned Pro Bowl fullback Vonta Leach. Leach should continue to pave the way for Rice, and the screen game and dump off yards should make owners very pleased. There are rumblings that backup running back Bernard Pierce will take some of Rice's carries, but I doubt it will be significant enough to keep from Rice finishing in the top 10 RBs again.
Bust: Torrey Smith, WR
Smith will drive you crazy if he is on your team. He is one of the most up and down players that I've ever seen. His ups from last year included a 24 pointer against the Patriots, and an 18 pointer against the Raiders. His lows included a zero against the Steelers, a one against the Broncos, and a two against the Redskins. Smith does have the luxury of being the man at WR now that Boldin is gone, although I'm not sure if that is the best thing for him. Smith, similar to a DeSean Jackson, is a straight line speed player. As long as teams can keep a safety over the top, it really limits what Smith can do offensively. He'll probably be drafted as a FLEX for some team, possibly even a WR2. I don't think he's either as the lows are too devastating and frequent to make up for his occasional high. Draft him at your own risk.
Sleeper: Dallas Clark, TE
This was convenient for me that this story broke today, otherwise coming up with a sleeper would have been tough. Clark signed with the Ravens due to Dennis Pitta's season ending injury and Ed Dickson's injury issues as well. While I think Dickson recovers from the injury, I like Clark as one of those older players that has one more good year left in him. Clark was limited by Josh Freeman last year, and saw less than ideal receptions. Now he moves to a team that, in 2012, saw Pitta tally almost as many receptions (61) as Clark had targets (76). He might be 34 years old, but he's proven in Indy that he can be a productive real life and fantasy tight end. I think he clicks with Flacco and becomes his go to safety valve as Clark becomes a playable starting TE in fantasy by the end of the year.
Bottom Line:
The mass exodus of players from the Ravens' defense could have more of an impact than the Ravens realize. Obviously the defense will struggle to find an identity, but I also think this will force the offense into catch up mode for a lot of games. This is bad news for Rice owners as this means less carries, and bad news for the offense as Flacco is not the guy I would want leading a comeback game in and game out. He's just too inconsistent. Rice should still be taken in the top 10, probably the top 8 of drafts, but barring a major injury, the rest of the Ravens can be passed on.
Matty O.
Thursday, August 8, 2013
2013 Fantasy Breakdown: NFC North
Minnesota Vikings
Studs: Adrian Peterson, RB
It's safe to assume that AP will be the number one overall player off draft boards, and for good reason. The only concern last year was how he would respond coming off ACL surgery on such a short time frame, and he surpassed all expectations. The fact that he came up only nine yards short of the single season rushing record is impressive, but what's more impressive is that he started last year relatively slow. In five out of the first six games last year, he failed to register 100 yards, including in games against the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans; not the best of all run defenses. That seems like a distant memory now as he steamrolled the competition the rest of the way (excluding Week 16 in Houston) and cemented himself as the best player in the NFL.
Bust: Kyle Rudolph, TE
Rudolph is currently the 5th tight end off the board, ahead of guys like Owen Daniels, Greg Olsen, and Antonio Gates. Sorry, but that's way too high. He's also in the overall neighborhood of guys like Tony Romo, Sidney Rice, and Stevie Johnson. I would rather have any of the aforementioned six players than Rudolph. He has a sporadic good game here or there, but is too inconsistent and relies too heavily on TDs. He had less receiving yards last year than Dwayne Allen and Jermaine Gresham, both of whom are going undrafted with Rudolph going somewhere in the 8th or 9th round. Like last year, I expect him to be used more as a blocker for AP than a safety valve for Christian Ponder. Expect the receiving yards to stay relatively the same, but his nine TDs to drop.
Sleeper: Greg Jennings, WR
This is really just a case of, "well someone has to catch the ball." Now that Percy Harvin is gone and little to no competition for the WR1 job, Jennings is in line to see a lot of targets this year. While it's true that Minnesota doesn't pass the ball a lot (28th in the league in attempts), they do complete a fairly high percentage of those passes (12th in completion percentage). While he's certainly not as fast as Harvin, I think Jennings is the better route runner and should give Ponder a reliable weapon to throw to. If teams continue to stack the box against AP, then the play action pass should be very effective with Jennings being on the receiving end of those passes more often than not. Slowed by injury last year, he did finish strong with 165 yards and 3 TDs over the final two regular season games. If he can stay healthy, he could be fairly valuable in fantasy and very valuable to Ponder.
Bottom Line:
There are a lot of question marks on this team, with AP being the only real safe pick from the Vikings. If Ponder progresses this year, then expect the passing game to be a bit more threatening and hopefully open up the line of scrimmage for AP. If he regresses, however, AP will need to carry this team on his back once again if they are to reach the playoffs for the second year in a row.
Chicago Bears
Studs: Matt Forte, RB, Brandon Marshall, WR
Forte is a difficult back to assess. Yes, he gets a significant amount of attempts rushing the ball, and yes, he is a great pass catching back. Still, the injury concern with him is real as is his baffling inability to score TDs. The Bears finally gave up on feeding the ball to Forte close to the goal line and just brought in Michael Bush. Bush, believe it or not, had the same amount of rushing TDs as Forte despite seeing 134 less carries. Forte is still the featured back and Marc Trestman's new offense might spark Forte to even greater heights. Just know that you're probably getting a RB that will do okay for nearly every game, but won't win you a matchup by himself.
Unlike Forte, I am high on Marshall this year. Trestman should bring out the best in Jay Cutler, which should mean even better numbers for Marshall. He seems to have gotten his off the field distractions under control and didn't miss a step reuniting with Cutler from their days in Denver. He finished second in targets last year, racking up over 1500 yards receiving and 11 TDs. Cutler seemed to have tunnel vision at times, forgetting that the Bears have other players not named Marshall to throw to. That might be a bad strategy in real life, but is great for Marshall owners. Marshall is a solid WR1 and I would take him ahead of guys like Dez Bryant and Julio Jones (behind Calvin Johnson, of course).
Bust: Bears D/ST
I was a year early on this prediction. The Bears D went bananas last year, tallying a ridiculous 44 turnovers and 10 TDs. Similar to Rudolph's receiving TDs, I don't think you can expect that type of production again. Also, there is a lot of change for this unit, none of which I see as good. Brian Urlacher is gone. Lovie Smith is gone. Rod Marinelli is gone. All three were a significant reason why this unit was so good and will be sorely missed in 2013. Despite their dominance, the 2012 Bears had their lows as well. They put up a zero in Week 11 in San Francisco then followed it up two weeks later with a negative one against Seattle (the Broncos and Steelers had no such game last year). Their 20+ games came against St. Louis, Dallas, Jacksonville (sans MJD), Tennessee, and Arizona. All teams that missed the playoffs. While I do not think they will drastically fall off, you shouldn't draft them expecting the 2012 version. The 2013 version will finish out of the top 5 and, depending which defenses step up this year, could finish outside the top 10.
Sleeper: Alshon Jeffery, WR
Just like the bust pick, I was a year early on this one too. I had Jeffery pegged as the best WR to come out of the 2012 draft class, despite being the 7th one taken. He was a monster at South Carolina and I thought he would dominate in the pros. Unfortunately, he went to the conservative Bears, and even more unfortunately, Marshall was already there as the established number one WR. Despite these limitations, Jeffery exploded onto the fantasy scene scoring 14 points in Week 1. Unfortunately he suffered a knee injury and was never really the same when he came back. Now he gets the pass happy Trestman as his coach and a whole year to rest his knee. Marshall should take away a lot of coverage, especially at the start of the year, leaving one on one matchups for the 6'3" Jeffery. If he can see a good number of those, he will be a solid FLEX and potentially a WR2 depending on how Trestman's offense actually plays out.
Bottom Line:
As you may have noticed, Trestman's offense is the deciding factor. Will he turn Culter into a quality QB? Will he really throw it as much as people are assuming? What does that mean for Forte? Lots of questions to be answered with Marshall being the safest bet fantasy wise on this team. I think with a drop off in the defense, this offense will have to be more explosive. Whether they will or not remains to be seen, but they certainly have all the weapons to do so.
Detroit Lions
Studs: Calvin Johnson, WR, Matthew Stafford, QB
Johnson, or Megatron, was a men amongst boys last year. The scary part is that a lot of signs point to him putting up even better fantasy numbers this year. For starters, he only scored five TDs and was tackled at the one yard line four times. He set the single season mark for receiving yards despite recently admitting to having finger problems in 2012. 2000 yards is a heck of a lot for a WR, but there's no reason to think that he can't do it. He's been seeing double and triple coverage his entire career and has still dominated. Even in a WR class that is so deep, Megatron is so far ahead of his peers that he is the only non-RB I would select in the first round.
Stafford, similar to Cutler, has tunnel vision when it comes to Megatron, and it sometimes costs him. The most enticing thing about Stafford is that he throws the ball...a lot. He set the NFL record for pass attempts, although 17 of those wound up in the wrong team's hands. That wouldn't be that bad if it wasn't for his low 20 TD total. He's a guarantee to throw for more than 4,500 yards every year, but it would be nice if he had some other weapons in the passing game. Still, he only had two single digit games last year and torched the highly touted Seahawks defense to the tune of 352 yards and 3 TDs. Projected as the 9th QB off the board, Stafford has great value this year and should be an excellent starting QB for anyone's fantasy team.
Bust: Reggie Bush, RB
There are certainly reasons to like Bush this year. He will more than likely be the undisputed number one back in the regular season, and he showed that he still has the quickness and skills he had at USC as he was an important part of the Miami attack last year. That's the good. One of the concerns now that Bush is a Lion is that he is back to playing on astro turf. While this would not normally be that big of a deal, the last time he was playing for a team whose home field was turf (Saints) he was oft injured and suffered recurring knee injuries. If it happened only once then I wouldn't be concerned, but he was injured every year in New Orleans except for his rookie season. There's also the fact that the Lions don't have the easiest run defenses on their schedule. They face the Bears (twice), Bucs, Steelers, Bengals, Redskins, and Vikings (twice) who all finished 2012 ranked in the top 12 in rushing defense. I think his numbers in the passing game will increase, and should be highly valued in PPR leagues, but in standard ones I would be wary.
Sleeper: Ryan Broyles, WR
727 passes. That's how many Stafford threw last year. I know Megatron is good, but someone else on this team has to step up to the plate. Enter Broyles who showed flashes last year but continued to battle ACL injuries that have plagued him since college at Oklahoma. Hopefully this does not become a recurring theme, as he has great hands and should see a lot of opportunities with teams doubling or even tripling Megatron. I think his ceiling is fairly high, especially now that Titus Young is gone and his only competition is aging Nate Burleson. Take a late flier on him and see what develops.
Bottom Line:
Pass, pass, pass. Even if Bush does become a fantasy stud, it will be because of the dump off and screen game. Footballs will be flying all over the place in Detroit, which means selecting anyone in the passing game should yield good rewards. Keep an eye on Bush's health and the emergence of either a receiver or tight end as Stafford's number two option to Megatron.
Green Bay Packers
Studs: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Randall Cobb, WR
A-Rod is, without a doubt, the best QB in the league right now. His precision is deadly and he is able to do all this playing behind an average offensive line (second most sacks given up behind Arizona in 2012). His only bad game last year was the Monday Night fiasco in Seattle, but that defense was fierce and no visitor plays that well in that stadium. He should be the first QB off the board and is one of a handful of players that can single handedly win you a matchup. The loss of Bryan Bulaga concerns me, but at this point in his career, it seems silly to question anything that A-Rod does.
The second stud slot was going to go to Jordy Nelson, but he is once again injured as he was in 2012. Now that Jennings is gone, the number one target for Rodgers is open and I think Cobb will do an excellent job in filling that void. The Pack will probably move him all over the place, similar to what the Vikings did with Percy Harvin in Minnesota. He'll be out wide some plays, in the slot, in the backfield, anywhere he's needed. He's more quick than fast and is great in tight spaces. I think it is Cobb, and not Nelson or Jones, who becomes Rodgers' go to guy and develops into a fantasy WR1.
Bust: Eddie Lacy, RB
Lacy has gained a lot of hype because of his big size and play at Alabama. I would actually like him if he were projected lower and was drafted to a run oriented team. Unfortunately, neither is the case as he is currently projected ahead of Lamar Miller and Le'Veon Bell; both of whom are on teams that are more run oriented than the pack. The Pack claim they will run they ball more, but would you trust a rookie back or a MVP QB? Yeah, exactly. The question with Lacy, when he does get the ball, will be if he will be more like former 'Bama Heisman winner Mark Ingram or former team mate Trent Richardson? If it's Ingram, expect Lacy to struggle to find holes and get clogged at the line of scrimmage. If it's Richardson, expect Lacy to put up decent numbers, but still be hampered down by the limited carries he will get.
Sleeper: James Jones, WR
While I think Cobb becomes the go to guy, I think Jones jumps Nelson as the other Pack receiver to own. His 14 TDs from last year probably won't be repeated, but he put up decent yardage totals and found chemistry with Rodgers. He finished the year strong with 24 points in Chicago, 16 against Tennessee, and 12 in Minnesota in the final three weeks. Nelson's injury problem is real so if he misses any time, Jones' value goes up even more. As evidenced by my Broncos breakdown, I'm a fan of any receiver in a pass heavy offense. Jones' TD total goes down this year, but his yardage goes up as he gets just over 1000 yards.
Bottom Line:
What was the most talented team in the division at the start of the off season now has a plethora of question marks. How will Bulaga's loss effect the offense? Can they find an actual running back? Who will step up in Jennings' absence? Does anyone on the defense not named Clay Matthews know how to play defense? The other three teams in the division will be breathing down their necks as the Pack are still the ones with the target on their back. If they cannot figure out the solutions to the above problems then there is a chance, however slight it may be, that they miss the playoffs this year. Fantasy wise though, feel safe grabbing anyone in the passing game and keep an eye on Nelson's injury situation.
Matty O
Studs: Adrian Peterson, RB
It's safe to assume that AP will be the number one overall player off draft boards, and for good reason. The only concern last year was how he would respond coming off ACL surgery on such a short time frame, and he surpassed all expectations. The fact that he came up only nine yards short of the single season rushing record is impressive, but what's more impressive is that he started last year relatively slow. In five out of the first six games last year, he failed to register 100 yards, including in games against the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans; not the best of all run defenses. That seems like a distant memory now as he steamrolled the competition the rest of the way (excluding Week 16 in Houston) and cemented himself as the best player in the NFL.
Bust: Kyle Rudolph, TE
Rudolph is currently the 5th tight end off the board, ahead of guys like Owen Daniels, Greg Olsen, and Antonio Gates. Sorry, but that's way too high. He's also in the overall neighborhood of guys like Tony Romo, Sidney Rice, and Stevie Johnson. I would rather have any of the aforementioned six players than Rudolph. He has a sporadic good game here or there, but is too inconsistent and relies too heavily on TDs. He had less receiving yards last year than Dwayne Allen and Jermaine Gresham, both of whom are going undrafted with Rudolph going somewhere in the 8th or 9th round. Like last year, I expect him to be used more as a blocker for AP than a safety valve for Christian Ponder. Expect the receiving yards to stay relatively the same, but his nine TDs to drop.
Sleeper: Greg Jennings, WR
This is really just a case of, "well someone has to catch the ball." Now that Percy Harvin is gone and little to no competition for the WR1 job, Jennings is in line to see a lot of targets this year. While it's true that Minnesota doesn't pass the ball a lot (28th in the league in attempts), they do complete a fairly high percentage of those passes (12th in completion percentage). While he's certainly not as fast as Harvin, I think Jennings is the better route runner and should give Ponder a reliable weapon to throw to. If teams continue to stack the box against AP, then the play action pass should be very effective with Jennings being on the receiving end of those passes more often than not. Slowed by injury last year, he did finish strong with 165 yards and 3 TDs over the final two regular season games. If he can stay healthy, he could be fairly valuable in fantasy and very valuable to Ponder.
Bottom Line:
There are a lot of question marks on this team, with AP being the only real safe pick from the Vikings. If Ponder progresses this year, then expect the passing game to be a bit more threatening and hopefully open up the line of scrimmage for AP. If he regresses, however, AP will need to carry this team on his back once again if they are to reach the playoffs for the second year in a row.
Chicago Bears
Studs: Matt Forte, RB, Brandon Marshall, WR
Forte is a difficult back to assess. Yes, he gets a significant amount of attempts rushing the ball, and yes, he is a great pass catching back. Still, the injury concern with him is real as is his baffling inability to score TDs. The Bears finally gave up on feeding the ball to Forte close to the goal line and just brought in Michael Bush. Bush, believe it or not, had the same amount of rushing TDs as Forte despite seeing 134 less carries. Forte is still the featured back and Marc Trestman's new offense might spark Forte to even greater heights. Just know that you're probably getting a RB that will do okay for nearly every game, but won't win you a matchup by himself.
Unlike Forte, I am high on Marshall this year. Trestman should bring out the best in Jay Cutler, which should mean even better numbers for Marshall. He seems to have gotten his off the field distractions under control and didn't miss a step reuniting with Cutler from their days in Denver. He finished second in targets last year, racking up over 1500 yards receiving and 11 TDs. Cutler seemed to have tunnel vision at times, forgetting that the Bears have other players not named Marshall to throw to. That might be a bad strategy in real life, but is great for Marshall owners. Marshall is a solid WR1 and I would take him ahead of guys like Dez Bryant and Julio Jones (behind Calvin Johnson, of course).
Bust: Bears D/ST
I was a year early on this prediction. The Bears D went bananas last year, tallying a ridiculous 44 turnovers and 10 TDs. Similar to Rudolph's receiving TDs, I don't think you can expect that type of production again. Also, there is a lot of change for this unit, none of which I see as good. Brian Urlacher is gone. Lovie Smith is gone. Rod Marinelli is gone. All three were a significant reason why this unit was so good and will be sorely missed in 2013. Despite their dominance, the 2012 Bears had their lows as well. They put up a zero in Week 11 in San Francisco then followed it up two weeks later with a negative one against Seattle (the Broncos and Steelers had no such game last year). Their 20+ games came against St. Louis, Dallas, Jacksonville (sans MJD), Tennessee, and Arizona. All teams that missed the playoffs. While I do not think they will drastically fall off, you shouldn't draft them expecting the 2012 version. The 2013 version will finish out of the top 5 and, depending which defenses step up this year, could finish outside the top 10.
Sleeper: Alshon Jeffery, WR
Just like the bust pick, I was a year early on this one too. I had Jeffery pegged as the best WR to come out of the 2012 draft class, despite being the 7th one taken. He was a monster at South Carolina and I thought he would dominate in the pros. Unfortunately, he went to the conservative Bears, and even more unfortunately, Marshall was already there as the established number one WR. Despite these limitations, Jeffery exploded onto the fantasy scene scoring 14 points in Week 1. Unfortunately he suffered a knee injury and was never really the same when he came back. Now he gets the pass happy Trestman as his coach and a whole year to rest his knee. Marshall should take away a lot of coverage, especially at the start of the year, leaving one on one matchups for the 6'3" Jeffery. If he can see a good number of those, he will be a solid FLEX and potentially a WR2 depending on how Trestman's offense actually plays out.
Bottom Line:
As you may have noticed, Trestman's offense is the deciding factor. Will he turn Culter into a quality QB? Will he really throw it as much as people are assuming? What does that mean for Forte? Lots of questions to be answered with Marshall being the safest bet fantasy wise on this team. I think with a drop off in the defense, this offense will have to be more explosive. Whether they will or not remains to be seen, but they certainly have all the weapons to do so.
Detroit Lions
Studs: Calvin Johnson, WR, Matthew Stafford, QB
Johnson, or Megatron, was a men amongst boys last year. The scary part is that a lot of signs point to him putting up even better fantasy numbers this year. For starters, he only scored five TDs and was tackled at the one yard line four times. He set the single season mark for receiving yards despite recently admitting to having finger problems in 2012. 2000 yards is a heck of a lot for a WR, but there's no reason to think that he can't do it. He's been seeing double and triple coverage his entire career and has still dominated. Even in a WR class that is so deep, Megatron is so far ahead of his peers that he is the only non-RB I would select in the first round.
Stafford, similar to Cutler, has tunnel vision when it comes to Megatron, and it sometimes costs him. The most enticing thing about Stafford is that he throws the ball...a lot. He set the NFL record for pass attempts, although 17 of those wound up in the wrong team's hands. That wouldn't be that bad if it wasn't for his low 20 TD total. He's a guarantee to throw for more than 4,500 yards every year, but it would be nice if he had some other weapons in the passing game. Still, he only had two single digit games last year and torched the highly touted Seahawks defense to the tune of 352 yards and 3 TDs. Projected as the 9th QB off the board, Stafford has great value this year and should be an excellent starting QB for anyone's fantasy team.
Bust: Reggie Bush, RB
There are certainly reasons to like Bush this year. He will more than likely be the undisputed number one back in the regular season, and he showed that he still has the quickness and skills he had at USC as he was an important part of the Miami attack last year. That's the good. One of the concerns now that Bush is a Lion is that he is back to playing on astro turf. While this would not normally be that big of a deal, the last time he was playing for a team whose home field was turf (Saints) he was oft injured and suffered recurring knee injuries. If it happened only once then I wouldn't be concerned, but he was injured every year in New Orleans except for his rookie season. There's also the fact that the Lions don't have the easiest run defenses on their schedule. They face the Bears (twice), Bucs, Steelers, Bengals, Redskins, and Vikings (twice) who all finished 2012 ranked in the top 12 in rushing defense. I think his numbers in the passing game will increase, and should be highly valued in PPR leagues, but in standard ones I would be wary.
Sleeper: Ryan Broyles, WR
727 passes. That's how many Stafford threw last year. I know Megatron is good, but someone else on this team has to step up to the plate. Enter Broyles who showed flashes last year but continued to battle ACL injuries that have plagued him since college at Oklahoma. Hopefully this does not become a recurring theme, as he has great hands and should see a lot of opportunities with teams doubling or even tripling Megatron. I think his ceiling is fairly high, especially now that Titus Young is gone and his only competition is aging Nate Burleson. Take a late flier on him and see what develops.
Bottom Line:
Pass, pass, pass. Even if Bush does become a fantasy stud, it will be because of the dump off and screen game. Footballs will be flying all over the place in Detroit, which means selecting anyone in the passing game should yield good rewards. Keep an eye on Bush's health and the emergence of either a receiver or tight end as Stafford's number two option to Megatron.
Green Bay Packers
Studs: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Randall Cobb, WR
A-Rod is, without a doubt, the best QB in the league right now. His precision is deadly and he is able to do all this playing behind an average offensive line (second most sacks given up behind Arizona in 2012). His only bad game last year was the Monday Night fiasco in Seattle, but that defense was fierce and no visitor plays that well in that stadium. He should be the first QB off the board and is one of a handful of players that can single handedly win you a matchup. The loss of Bryan Bulaga concerns me, but at this point in his career, it seems silly to question anything that A-Rod does.
The second stud slot was going to go to Jordy Nelson, but he is once again injured as he was in 2012. Now that Jennings is gone, the number one target for Rodgers is open and I think Cobb will do an excellent job in filling that void. The Pack will probably move him all over the place, similar to what the Vikings did with Percy Harvin in Minnesota. He'll be out wide some plays, in the slot, in the backfield, anywhere he's needed. He's more quick than fast and is great in tight spaces. I think it is Cobb, and not Nelson or Jones, who becomes Rodgers' go to guy and develops into a fantasy WR1.
Bust: Eddie Lacy, RB
Lacy has gained a lot of hype because of his big size and play at Alabama. I would actually like him if he were projected lower and was drafted to a run oriented team. Unfortunately, neither is the case as he is currently projected ahead of Lamar Miller and Le'Veon Bell; both of whom are on teams that are more run oriented than the pack. The Pack claim they will run they ball more, but would you trust a rookie back or a MVP QB? Yeah, exactly. The question with Lacy, when he does get the ball, will be if he will be more like former 'Bama Heisman winner Mark Ingram or former team mate Trent Richardson? If it's Ingram, expect Lacy to struggle to find holes and get clogged at the line of scrimmage. If it's Richardson, expect Lacy to put up decent numbers, but still be hampered down by the limited carries he will get.
Sleeper: James Jones, WR
While I think Cobb becomes the go to guy, I think Jones jumps Nelson as the other Pack receiver to own. His 14 TDs from last year probably won't be repeated, but he put up decent yardage totals and found chemistry with Rodgers. He finished the year strong with 24 points in Chicago, 16 against Tennessee, and 12 in Minnesota in the final three weeks. Nelson's injury problem is real so if he misses any time, Jones' value goes up even more. As evidenced by my Broncos breakdown, I'm a fan of any receiver in a pass heavy offense. Jones' TD total goes down this year, but his yardage goes up as he gets just over 1000 yards.
Bottom Line:
What was the most talented team in the division at the start of the off season now has a plethora of question marks. How will Bulaga's loss effect the offense? Can they find an actual running back? Who will step up in Jennings' absence? Does anyone on the defense not named Clay Matthews know how to play defense? The other three teams in the division will be breathing down their necks as the Pack are still the ones with the target on their back. If they cannot figure out the solutions to the above problems then there is a chance, however slight it may be, that they miss the playoffs this year. Fantasy wise though, feel safe grabbing anyone in the passing game and keep an eye on Nelson's injury situation.
Matty O
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