Philadelphia Eagles
Studs: LeSean McCoy, RB, DeSean Jackson, WR
Last year, McCoy was near the top of fantasy draft boards, going somewhere between three and five overall. After a disappointing 2012, his draft stock has dropped a bit, enabling you to get a potential top 3 RB in the late first, perhaps early second depending on how your league drafts. He missed four games last year due to concussion and was limited by Andy Reid's play calling. He still finished with 840 yards and made PPR owners happy with 54 receptions. His five total TDs are what killed him and was one of the reasons the Eagles wound up in last place. New head coach Chip Kelly will run the ball more and, given the wide open style of his offense, should be able to get McCoy into space where he is especially dangerous. I think McCoy has a monster comeback year and thrives in Kelly's system.
Jackson may not have made this section had it not been for Maclin's injury. Jackson once again becomes the number one guy for the Eagles. He had a rough and injury plagued year, playing in only 11 games. The key for Jackson is that Michael Vick appears to be at full health and he's proven he can put up numbers in the past. He had back to back 1,000 yard receiving years in 2009 and 2010, posting 15 TDs in the process. In their first preseason game, Vick connected on a long bomb to Jackson for a 47 yard TD. That's what I expect from Jackson this year. His value is very limited in PPR, but he will have at least three or four chances each game to connect on a long catch and/or TD. Currently projected as the 27th WR off the board, I think he has some value this year as a boom or bust WR.
Bust: None
Like many other teams that have no one to put in the bust category, the Eagles were pretty awful last year. The only one worthy of a bust prediction would be McCoy, but obviously I don't think that will happen. Apart from McCoy, Jackson, and possibly Bryce Brown and Michael Vick, the rest of the Eagles will go undrafted.
Sleeper: Michael Vick, QB
Vick is in the same mold of players like Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray; when they're healthy and play well, then they're fantasy gold, unfortunately they usually don't do that. Still, Vick is one of the most talented runners at the QB position and proved he can still throw the rock every once in a while (threw for over 300 yards three times in 2012). Kelly will bring in a new option read scheme, which could make Vick's rushing numbers even better. It will be up to him to avoid those big hits though. We've seen in the past how Vick's ability can win you a mtachup, so the fact that he is projected as the 16th QB off the board makes him a steal. I would rather select Vick (No. 16 QB) who has top 5 upside, rather than draft Joe Flacco (No. 15 QB) whose upside is little to none. At the very least if Vick goes off early in the season, he can be trade bait. Speed is the name of the game with Kelly's offense, and Vick still has plenty of it.
Bottom Line:
Fantasy wise, the offense looks very exciting. If Kelly can even come close to the numbers his teams put up at Oregon, then many of the Eagles' offensive players will be great to own. In real life, however, I still think they finish last in the division because of their porous defense. The good part about that for fantasy owners? Shootouts. Enter Jackson, McCoy, and Vick to put up numbers.
New York Giants
Studs: Victor Cruz, WR
Cruz is the only consistent, reliable weapon currently on the Giants' roster. With the departure of Ahmad Bradshaw, the backfield looks like it is heading towards committee territory with David Wilson and Andre Brown sharing time. The Giants' former number one WR Hakeem Nicks, can't stay healthy, and they lost their breakout tight end in Martellus Bennett to the Bears. Cruz should provide some stability though as he put up another 1,000 yard campaign and bumped his TDs into double digits (10). He would have had an even bigger year had it not been for Eli Manning's atrocious three game slump from Week 8 to Week 10 where he threw for an average of 177 yards for those three games with zero passing TDs. Barring another slump of that magnitude, Cruz will once again put up great numbers as he salsa dances your fantasy team into the playoffs.
Bust: Giants Running Backs
It is certainly possible that either David Wilson or Andre Brown emerges to distinguish themselves, but I'm not sure who at this point. Wilson got a lot of hype from last year as he had two great games to end the year; Week 14 against New Orleans and Week 17 against Philadelphia. He now gets the chance to take over the number one spot with Bradshaw gone, but Brown is lurking. Brown's hype was the exact opposite because his two great games were at the beginning of the year; Week 2 against Tampa Bay and Week 3 in Carolina. Brown actually finished last year with more carries and TDs than Wilson last year, yet is projected lower than him this year. I see a situation developing where either one goes off one week, then the other, etc., or they both perform okay most weeks, but limit each others' fantasy value. If the price is right, I might take one of these two, but probably only as my FLEX and certainly not a RB2.
Sleeper: Brandon Myers, TE
While Bennett was having a breakout year in New York, Myers was having one of his own in Oakland on a much worse team. Myers put up nearly 200 more yards than Bennett with 24 more receptions. Manning clearly enjoys throwing it to his tight ends as he turned Jake Ballard into a usable fantasy TE before Bennett came over from the Cowboys. Myers should slide right into that role and perform even better than both of them. Projected as the 10th TE off the board, Myers could be a value for those owners who wait on TE and load up on the other positions early. If, or when, Nicks gets injured, his value rises even more.
Bottom Line:
The Giants need more consistent QB play from Manning if they are to win the division this year. They have plenty of weapons to do so, including two running backs that are waiting to break out. Cruz is definitely the safest pick here with Nicks being a potential bargain if he can stay healthy (that's a big if).
Washington Redskins
Studs: Robert Griffin III, QB, Alfred Morris, RB
Even though people thought RG3 would be a great QB, I don't think anyone thought it would happen that quickly. Not only did he carry a lot of fantasy teams into the playoffs, he also resurrected the Redskins from annual cellar dwellers to the playoffs. He lit up fantasy scoreboards as he rushed for 826 yards and finished the year with 27 total TDs. While most people marvel at those rushing stats, I was more impressed with the fact that he only threw five interceptions last year which is unheard of for a rookie QB. If he can stay healthy this year, he is primed for another big season for fantasy owners and the Redskins.
Morris went from waiver wire fodder to fantasy gold last year. He finished as the number five fantasy running back, rushing for over 1500 yards and 13 TDs. RG3's injury actually helps Morris quite a bit because of the increase in carries he will get. The Redskins still want to run the ball, but I have a feeling the designed runs for RG3 will go down. Who will pick up those carries? Morris. His value in PPR leagues is much lower than standard given his mere 11 receptions last year, but he'll still be a starting RB for any fantasy team. I think his numbers dip a little bit this year (13 TDs is quite a bit), but not enough to push him out of the fantasy stud section.
Bust: RG3, QB
Similar to Vick, RG3's running style should worry people when it comes to injuries. He runs with reckless abandon and, although it's easy to say he will be more careful this year, I still think he will revert back to his old ways in the heat of the moment. In 2012, RG3 missed part of the Falcons game, missed part of the Ravens game, and missed the entire Browns game. I mentioned earlier how the Redskins will probably be more conservative with RG3's running, which is good for the Redskins but bad for fantasy owners. His running numbers masked his often times mediocre passing stats. Not including the games he didn't finish or didn't play in, RG3 threw for 215 yards or less in eight games last year. The final two games for the Redskins after he came back from injury? 298 yards, 2 TDs, one INT. Drew Brees puts up better numbers in three quarters. If he is limited in the running game at all, his passing deficiencies will start to show and he will no longer by the fantasy guarantee that he was last year.
Sleeper: Pierre Garcon, WR
When Garcon and RG3 were both healthy last year, they were one of the top QB-WR combos in the NFL. Garcon exploded with a 109 yard, 1 TD performance in Week 1, but was injured in the process. He didn't manage to really get his feet back under him until Week 12. Then, just like in Week 1, he took off posting three double digit games from Week 12 to Week 14. He finished the year quietly, however, coinciding with the Browns game RG3 missed and the final two games where RG3 was average at best as a passer. He is the unquestioned number one WR on this team, but is being drafted in fantasy as a FLEX. If both he and RG3 can stay healthy, Garcon is a top 5 WR. Yep, top 5. He may be the best value out there right now, showing just how deep WR is this year.
Bottom Line:
A year after winning the division, expectations are high in D.C. The Redskins' fate really all comes down to RG3's health and how his play style will be different. I still think this offense puts up numbers, but it might come from different places other than RG3's legs this year. If he goes down, I think Morris still has value, but everyone else is in trouble.
Dallas Cowboys
Studs: Dez Bryant, WR, Jason Witten, TE
Finally, Dez woke up and realized his potential. As a Cowboys fan, I was ecstatic when they drafted him back in 2010 as he put up great numbers in college and was, and still is, an athletic freak of nature. Inconsistency, injuries, and off the field problems soon ended that excitement as it looked like Dez was heading towards bust territory. Then, in Week 10 last year, everything just seemed to click. From Week 10 to the end of the year, he had only one single digit game and put up number one overall WR numbers. Three times he went for 145 yards or more including a 224 yard masterpiece in many people's fantasy championship game. He also scored at least one TD from Week 10 to Week 16. He put up phenomenal numbers for the year, despite starting the season very slow. He had three one point games and only two double digit games prior to Week 10. Of all the WRs not named Calvin Johnson, I think he has the best upside to be the number one overall WR this year.
Witten just keeps on chugging. Another 1,000 yard season as his chemistry with Tony Romo has continued. The only concerning thing with Witten is that his TD total has dropped the past two years, all the way down to three last year. Still, predicting TDs with tight ends is difficult so I wouldn't be too concerned. For PPR leagues, Witten is a monster as shown in Week 8 last year against the Giants. He actually scored more fantasy points for his receptions (18 points) than for his overall yardage (16 points). He is about as safe of a pick as you can get in all of fantasy football.
Bust: DeMarco Murray, RB
Darren McFadden, Dallas edition. That is what Murray is turning into as he has now missed nine games in two seasons. He can run with the best of them when he is out there, but the injuries are mounting. Even more concerning is that he had these problems in college as well, so it's likely that his body is fragile or broken down from these injuries, making it difficult for him to play a whole season. His TD total is also quite low as he only had four last year in 10 games. He is currently the 21st projected RB off the board meaning someone will have him as their RB2 in 12 team leagues, and someone will probably reach for him in 10 team leagues as their RB2. I might be comfortable with him as my FLEX, but there are safer, higher upside options out there.
Sleeper: Tony Romo, QB
Even as a Cowboys fan, I dislike Romo, but he is the ultimate fantasy vs reality player. The perception that he gets in reality is that he is no good, chokes in games, and makes bad decisions. In fantasy football, however, like any fantasy game, it is all about stats. That's it. And when it comes to stats, Romo is near the top. In every year since he has been a starter (excluding his injury shortened 2010), Romo has finished in the top 10 fantasy QBs. He finished in the top 6 last year in yards, TDs, and completion percentage. The only other players to accomplish the same feat? Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning, both being taken several rounds before Romo. Despite the perception that he chokes towards the end of the year, Romo's only two single digit games were actually at the beginning of the year in Weeks 3 and 4. In Weeks 15 and 16 (most league's fantasy playoffs), he put up 21 and 32 points, respectively. He's currently projected as the 12th QB off the board, which is crazy for a QB that so consistently finishes in the top 10. I will gladly load up on RBs and WRs early and wait until the later rounds to draft a top 10 QB.
Bottom Line:
I'm biased here, but I expect a good year out of the Cowboys. I won't guarantee a playoff berth, but they will definitely be knocking on the door. The defense could actually wind up as a top 10 unit as they switched to a 4-3 with DeMarcus Ware now on the line and Sean Lee back at middle linebacker. Still, the story for this team is on offense as the passing game should thrive once again. Draft Murray with caution, but feel safe about the rest of them.
Matty O
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