Indianapolis Colts
Studs: Andrew Luck, QB, Reggie Wayne, WR
While I thought Luck would have a fairly decent rookie year, I didn't think he would set the record for the most passing yards by a rookie in a season. He did this without his head coach for much of the season and without an established running back. Apart from Wayne on the outside, his weapons were very limited and very inexperienced. He also helped owners by adding on 255 rushing yards and 5 TDs. The only concerning thing is the 18 INTs as well as numerous potential INTs that were dropped. While not considered a sleeper, he is certainly undervalued as the 11th projected QB off the board. Even in a 10 team league, I would be fine with him as my QB for 2013.
Wayne was the sleeper pick I was most confident about last year. Peyton Manning was great no doubt about it, but from everything we saw in college at Stanford, it wasn't like Luck was going to be terrible. Wayne, who could have left Indy but decided to help Luck transition from the Manning era, was Luck's safety blanket throughout the year and was targeted frequently. In the Colts' first four games, Wayne hauled in 36 passes. His lowest reception total was three in Week 15 against Houston. Apart from that, he hovered consistently around 7 or 8 catches a game. He is getting older, and definitely has more value in a PPR league than a standard league, but Wayne is so skilled that even a QB switch from a legend to a rookie doesn't effect his performance.
Bust: Colts RBs
Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard are the front runners for the position currently with Donald Brown and Dalone Carter a distant third and fourth. Bradshaw, unfortunately, can never stay healthy as he has had foot and ankle problems throughout his career; one of the reasons why the Giants let him go. Ballard had some decent games last year, along with a very memorable twisting, turning, and diving touchdown against the Titans. Still, he never eclipsed 13 fantasy points, only had 100 yards rushing one time, and scored a grand total of two rushing TDs. Even if Bradshaw gets injured (72% chance he will) it's not like Ballard will come in and propel you to the fantasy playoffs. If I had to choose, I would rather draft Bradshaw and just pray he doesn't get injured and can return to his early New York Giant days, but I still wouldn't want either one.
Sleeper: T.Y. Hilton, WR
He might not even be a sleeper for some of you who owned him last year, but he is still going in the late, late rounds so he can certainly be a bargain. Hilton, playing opposite Wayne and learning from him, started the year very slow. He needed time to develop chemistry with Luck and time for Luck to stop looking Wayne's way every single throw. Once that happened, from Week 9-17, Hilton racked up four games of 100 yards or more, scored six TDs, and posted only three single digit games. He hopes to carry that momentum into this year. Even though I think Wayne still gets his share, I expect Hilton to see an increase in his targets this year resulting in some respectable numbers. He will probably be drafted for your bench or FLEX position, but I think he has WR2 potential. At the price you can get him for, he's one of the best bargains out there.
Bottom Line:
The passing game is the only thing that should concern you here fantasy wise. Along with Hilton, I wouldn't be surprised if former Luck Stanford teammate Coby Fleener finally emerges as a nice tight end option. I don't think he has the high upside as say a Jared Cook or Jordan Cameron, but he's more of a sure thing to put up decent numbers. He could sneak in as a playable TE1 by the end of the year. Despite making the playoffs last year, the Colts will look to go a step further and win the division crown from Houston. Luck and this offense will be the ones that make or break that dream.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Studs: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Cecil Shorts, WR
I thought MJD would have a down year last year, but not because of injury. The main concern coming out of last season's off season was whether MJD's long holdout would effect his play on the field. He put those concerns to rest fairly quickly by racking up 12 in Week 2 and 24 in Week 3. Then, Week 7 came around and he injured his foot and was out for the rest of the season. This injury may have been a blessing in disguise for his 2013 fantasy campaign as he's had extra time to rest. The offensive line and inconsistent play of the Jags' QBs is certainly a worry, but MJD is one of those rare backs that can still produce when those limitations are in play. I expect him to bounce back this year, though I won't say into the upper echelon of backs. I think he finishes in the top 15 at RB, making him a solid RB2 in most formats.
Shorts was a guy that was getting overlooked (no pun intended). MJD is in the backfield and Justin Blackmon was getting all the hype at WR. In comes Shorts who puts up close to 1000 yards and seven TDs from an on and off dose of Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert. Unlike most receivers that come out of nowhere and have one or two spectacular games then stink the rest of the time, Shorts was very consistent tallying nine double digit games out of the 14 he played. He did put up a couple zeroes last year, but I would blame that more on the Jags' horrendous QB play than Shorts. He is a consistent guy who, due to the Jags offense as a whole, won't win you any weeks, but will give you consistency week in and week out.
Bust: MJD, RB
Not a lot of options here, but there are a couple things that concern me about MJD. The first is this quick, no huddle offense the Jags have been running in preseason. I'm not sure if they will stick to that, but I think MJD would prefer to just line it up and ram it at the defense. At his age, I doubt that no huddling is the best thing for him. The second concern is that the Jags will most likely be playing from behind a lot. MJD won't be able to get the carries that he wants and needs to get those large yardage totals. While he is a respectable catcher out of the backfield, I think he would rather just run. The last concern is the schedule which is tough. They play the AFC West and NFC West this year which is no walk in the park for RBs, especially the latter. Like I said, I still think he finishes top 15, but this is just a warning to owners of the downsides of drafting MJD as well.
Sleeper: Shorts, WR
Somehow, despite his consistency and experts knowing the Jags will have to throw this year, Shorts is still projected as the 26th WR off the board. That's FLEX territory for 10 and 12 team leagues, although I believe he is a WR2. The volume will be there, as will the opportunity as Justin Blackmon is suspended for the first four games of the season. I'll mention this again in my upcoming "Draft Strategy" article, but this just shows you how deep WR is this year.
Bottom Line:
Unfortunately, even with a healthy MJD and youngster Shorts, the Jags will probably once again finish last in the AFC South due to their awful QBs. If they would have landed a QB or drafted one in the offseason, then there would be hope, but we've seen Gabbert and Henne be consistently inconsistent. MJD and Shorts are the only two you should be looking at here.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: Chris Johnson, RB
CJ2K rewarded his owners last year who had patience. Following a dreadful 2011 campaign, 2012 looked like much of the same early on. He was awful in the first five weeks, tallying only one double digit game and zero TDs. While his big breakout came in Week 7 to the tune of 31 points, I thought the key turnaround game was the week prior against Pittsburgh. Although he didn't score, he managed to get 91 yards on 19 carries against one of the best run Ds in the league. I think it was a real confidence booster and set him up for success the rest of the year. He put up six straight double digit points from Week 6 to Week 12 (bye week in Week 11). He was on and off down the stretch, but 2012 was certainly an improvement. The Titans once against bolstered their offensive line and have looked good in preseason so far. It is amazing that the number 15 projected RB has number 1 overall upside.
Bust: Titans WR
Trying to figure out who will have a good week in this receiving corps is darn near impossible. Last year the three starters, Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and Kendall Wright, all had at least 589 yards, but no more than 746. Combined, they had nine times where one of them went for double digits, but none of them did it in the same week. The Titans complicated things even further by drafting Justin Hunter to compete for a receiver spot. Britt is the highest projected one, but has had injury and off the field problems throughout his career. Maybe use one as a bye week fill in, but good luck guessing who that will be.
Sleeper: None
There's just not enough talent or opportunity there.
Bottom Line:
The Titans will most likely battle for last with the Jags in this division. If CJ2K returns to form, there's a chance that they could push Indy, but as a team, they're not good enough to catch the Colts. I'm predicting/hoping that CJ puts together a great season. He's a home run threat, but is just as likely to get you 4 or 5 points per week.
Houston Texans
Arian Foster, RB, Defense and Special Teams
There's not much left to say for Foster. A fantasy stud year in and year out, he continues to be the centerpiece of this Houston Texans' offense. He only had two single digit games last year and went for over 100 rushing yards seven times, including against the Bears in Chicago. He's a safe bet to be taken anywhere in the first round, but will most likely be off the board by the time the fourth pick rolls around.
Brian Cushing, Jonathan Joseph, Ed Reed, and J. J. Watt. Pretty good list of defenders, no? Reed provides that extra coverage over the top for this defense that they were lacking last year as they were oft beat on long balls. Reed also brings his interception and run back ability, which will help boost fantasy stats. Cushing was hurt last year, but now one of the best linebackers in the game looks to be at full health. Joseph is a good corner who usually matches up against the other team's number one WR. Add in J. J. Swatt and this defense should perform very well this year. They avoid some of the more explosive offenses this year (Saints, Packers) and welcome the likes of the Raiders and Chargers. Expect good things from this D/ST.
Bust: Andre Johnson, WR
Johnson had a nice year last year, but has had injury history on a team that likes to run the ball. Most of his production comes from play action plays, but his targets in the red zone are limited by Foster and the Texans' commitment to the run. He posted nine single digit games last year and his two biggest games came against Jacksonville and Indy, not exactly the most fierce some of all pass defenses. I feel like he will always be the odd man out when it comes to touches for this offense. Teams can double cover him when the Texans are in a passing situation because they don't have someone opposite Johnson. Or, at least they didn't...
Sleeper: DeAndre Hopkins, WR
A bit of a risky call here with Hopkins considering I just mentioned how run oriented the Texans are. Still when teams are focusing on Johnson, or if Johnson gets injured, Hopkins has the ability to run good routes, burn people deep, and make solid catches. He certainly won't put up WR1 numbers and probably not Andre Johnson numbers, but the fact that he's currently going undrafted or in the last few rounds makes him an excellent pickup. If Johnson gets hurt, I think Hopkins becomes a solid FLEX. Even if Johnson stays healthy, I think Hopkins' speed and play making ability could merit him bye week fill in or borderline FLEX consideration.
Bottom Line:
After not being challenged in 2011, the Texans found out last year just how close the Colts are to them. The return of Brian Cushing is huge for the defense and if Hopkins can develop into another threat opposite Johnson, then the offense will look even better than they have. Talented roster here in Houston as they seek another division title.
Matty O
No comments:
Post a Comment