Minnesota Vikings
Studs: Adrian Peterson, RB
It's safe to assume that AP will be the number one overall player off draft boards, and for good reason. The only concern last year was how he would respond coming off ACL surgery on such a short time frame, and he surpassed all expectations. The fact that he came up only nine yards short of the single season rushing record is impressive, but what's more impressive is that he started last year relatively slow. In five out of the first six games last year, he failed to register 100 yards, including in games against the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans; not the best of all run defenses. That seems like a distant memory now as he steamrolled the competition the rest of the way (excluding Week 16 in Houston) and cemented himself as the best player in the NFL.
Bust: Kyle Rudolph, TE
Rudolph is currently the 5th tight end off the board, ahead of guys like Owen Daniels, Greg Olsen, and Antonio Gates. Sorry, but that's way too high. He's also in the overall neighborhood of guys like Tony Romo, Sidney Rice, and Stevie Johnson. I would rather have any of the aforementioned six players than Rudolph. He has a sporadic good game here or there, but is too inconsistent and relies too heavily on TDs. He had less receiving yards last year than Dwayne Allen and Jermaine Gresham, both of whom are going undrafted with Rudolph going somewhere in the 8th or 9th round. Like last year, I expect him to be used more as a blocker for AP than a safety valve for Christian Ponder. Expect the receiving yards to stay relatively the same, but his nine TDs to drop.
Sleeper: Greg Jennings, WR
This is really just a case of, "well someone has to catch the ball." Now that Percy Harvin is gone and little to no competition for the WR1 job, Jennings is in line to see a lot of targets this year. While it's true that Minnesota doesn't pass the ball a lot (28th in the league in attempts), they do complete a fairly high percentage of those passes (12th in completion percentage). While he's certainly not as fast as Harvin, I think Jennings is the better route runner and should give Ponder a reliable weapon to throw to. If teams continue to stack the box against AP, then the play action pass should be very effective with Jennings being on the receiving end of those passes more often than not. Slowed by injury last year, he did finish strong with 165 yards and 3 TDs over the final two regular season games. If he can stay healthy, he could be fairly valuable in fantasy and very valuable to Ponder.
Bottom Line:
There are a lot of question marks on this team, with AP being the only real safe pick from the Vikings. If Ponder progresses this year, then expect the passing game to be a bit more threatening and hopefully open up the line of scrimmage for AP. If he regresses, however, AP will need to carry this team on his back once again if they are to reach the playoffs for the second year in a row.
Chicago Bears
Studs: Matt Forte, RB, Brandon Marshall, WR
Forte is a difficult back to assess. Yes, he gets a significant amount of attempts rushing the ball, and yes, he is a great pass catching back. Still, the injury concern with him is real as is his baffling inability to score TDs. The Bears finally gave up on feeding the ball to Forte close to the goal line and just brought in Michael Bush. Bush, believe it or not, had the same amount of rushing TDs as Forte despite seeing 134 less carries. Forte is still the featured back and Marc Trestman's new offense might spark Forte to even greater heights. Just know that you're probably getting a RB that will do okay for nearly every game, but won't win you a matchup by himself.
Unlike Forte, I am high on Marshall this year. Trestman should bring out the best in Jay Cutler, which should mean even better numbers for Marshall. He seems to have gotten his off the field distractions under control and didn't miss a step reuniting with Cutler from their days in Denver. He finished second in targets last year, racking up over 1500 yards receiving and 11 TDs. Cutler seemed to have tunnel vision at times, forgetting that the Bears have other players not named Marshall to throw to. That might be a bad strategy in real life, but is great for Marshall owners. Marshall is a solid WR1 and I would take him ahead of guys like Dez Bryant and Julio Jones (behind Calvin Johnson, of course).
Bust: Bears D/ST
I was a year early on this prediction. The Bears D went bananas last year, tallying a ridiculous 44 turnovers and 10 TDs. Similar to Rudolph's receiving TDs, I don't think you can expect that type of production again. Also, there is a lot of change for this unit, none of which I see as good. Brian Urlacher is gone. Lovie Smith is gone. Rod Marinelli is gone. All three were a significant reason why this unit was so good and will be sorely missed in 2013. Despite their dominance, the 2012 Bears had their lows as well. They put up a zero in Week 11 in San Francisco then followed it up two weeks later with a negative one against Seattle (the Broncos and Steelers had no such game last year). Their 20+ games came against St. Louis, Dallas, Jacksonville (sans MJD), Tennessee, and Arizona. All teams that missed the playoffs. While I do not think they will drastically fall off, you shouldn't draft them expecting the 2012 version. The 2013 version will finish out of the top 5 and, depending which defenses step up this year, could finish outside the top 10.
Sleeper: Alshon Jeffery, WR
Just like the bust pick, I was a year early on this one too. I had Jeffery pegged as the best WR to come out of the 2012 draft class, despite being the 7th one taken. He was a monster at South Carolina and I thought he would dominate in the pros. Unfortunately, he went to the conservative Bears, and even more unfortunately, Marshall was already there as the established number one WR. Despite these limitations, Jeffery exploded onto the fantasy scene scoring 14 points in Week 1. Unfortunately he suffered a knee injury and was never really the same when he came back. Now he gets the pass happy Trestman as his coach and a whole year to rest his knee. Marshall should take away a lot of coverage, especially at the start of the year, leaving one on one matchups for the 6'3" Jeffery. If he can see a good number of those, he will be a solid FLEX and potentially a WR2 depending on how Trestman's offense actually plays out.
Bottom Line:
As you may have noticed, Trestman's offense is the deciding factor. Will he turn Culter into a quality QB? Will he really throw it as much as people are assuming? What does that mean for Forte? Lots of questions to be answered with Marshall being the safest bet fantasy wise on this team. I think with a drop off in the defense, this offense will have to be more explosive. Whether they will or not remains to be seen, but they certainly have all the weapons to do so.
Detroit Lions
Studs: Calvin Johnson, WR, Matthew Stafford, QB
Johnson, or Megatron, was a men amongst boys last year. The scary part is that a lot of signs point to him putting up even better fantasy numbers this year. For starters, he only scored five TDs and was tackled at the one yard line four times. He set the single season mark for receiving yards despite recently admitting to having finger problems in 2012. 2000 yards is a heck of a lot for a WR, but there's no reason to think that he can't do it. He's been seeing double and triple coverage his entire career and has still dominated. Even in a WR class that is so deep, Megatron is so far ahead of his peers that he is the only non-RB I would select in the first round.
Stafford, similar to Cutler, has tunnel vision when it comes to Megatron, and it sometimes costs him. The most enticing thing about Stafford is that he throws the ball...a lot. He set the NFL record for pass attempts, although 17 of those wound up in the wrong team's hands. That wouldn't be that bad if it wasn't for his low 20 TD total. He's a guarantee to throw for more than 4,500 yards every year, but it would be nice if he had some other weapons in the passing game. Still, he only had two single digit games last year and torched the highly touted Seahawks defense to the tune of 352 yards and 3 TDs. Projected as the 9th QB off the board, Stafford has great value this year and should be an excellent starting QB for anyone's fantasy team.
Bust: Reggie Bush, RB
There are certainly reasons to like Bush this year. He will more than likely be the undisputed number one back in the regular season, and he showed that he still has the quickness and skills he had at USC as he was an important part of the Miami attack last year. That's the good. One of the concerns now that Bush is a Lion is that he is back to playing on astro turf. While this would not normally be that big of a deal, the last time he was playing for a team whose home field was turf (Saints) he was oft injured and suffered recurring knee injuries. If it happened only once then I wouldn't be concerned, but he was injured every year in New Orleans except for his rookie season. There's also the fact that the Lions don't have the easiest run defenses on their schedule. They face the Bears (twice), Bucs, Steelers, Bengals, Redskins, and Vikings (twice) who all finished 2012 ranked in the top 12 in rushing defense. I think his numbers in the passing game will increase, and should be highly valued in PPR leagues, but in standard ones I would be wary.
Sleeper: Ryan Broyles, WR
727 passes. That's how many Stafford threw last year. I know Megatron is good, but someone else on this team has to step up to the plate. Enter Broyles who showed flashes last year but continued to battle ACL injuries that have plagued him since college at Oklahoma. Hopefully this does not become a recurring theme, as he has great hands and should see a lot of opportunities with teams doubling or even tripling Megatron. I think his ceiling is fairly high, especially now that Titus Young is gone and his only competition is aging Nate Burleson. Take a late flier on him and see what develops.
Bottom Line:
Pass, pass, pass. Even if Bush does become a fantasy stud, it will be because of the dump off and screen game. Footballs will be flying all over the place in Detroit, which means selecting anyone in the passing game should yield good rewards. Keep an eye on Bush's health and the emergence of either a receiver or tight end as Stafford's number two option to Megatron.
Green Bay Packers
Studs: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Randall Cobb, WR
A-Rod is, without a doubt, the best QB in the league right now. His precision is deadly and he is able to do all this playing behind an average offensive line (second most sacks given up behind Arizona in 2012). His only bad game last year was the Monday Night fiasco in Seattle, but that defense was fierce and no visitor plays that well in that stadium. He should be the first QB off the board and is one of a handful of players that can single handedly win you a matchup. The loss of Bryan Bulaga concerns me, but at this point in his career, it seems silly to question anything that A-Rod does.
The second stud slot was going to go to Jordy Nelson, but he is once again injured as he was in 2012. Now that Jennings is gone, the number one target for Rodgers is open and I think Cobb will do an excellent job in filling that void. The Pack will probably move him all over the place, similar to what the Vikings did with Percy Harvin in Minnesota. He'll be out wide some plays, in the slot, in the backfield, anywhere he's needed. He's more quick than fast and is great in tight spaces. I think it is Cobb, and not Nelson or Jones, who becomes Rodgers' go to guy and develops into a fantasy WR1.
Bust: Eddie Lacy, RB
Lacy has gained a lot of hype because of his big size and play at Alabama. I would actually like him if he were projected lower and was drafted to a run oriented team. Unfortunately, neither is the case as he is currently projected ahead of Lamar Miller and Le'Veon Bell; both of whom are on teams that are more run oriented than the pack. The Pack claim they will run they ball more, but would you trust a rookie back or a MVP QB? Yeah, exactly. The question with Lacy, when he does get the ball, will be if he will be more like former 'Bama Heisman winner Mark Ingram or former team mate Trent Richardson? If it's Ingram, expect Lacy to struggle to find holes and get clogged at the line of scrimmage. If it's Richardson, expect Lacy to put up decent numbers, but still be hampered down by the limited carries he will get.
Sleeper: James Jones, WR
While I think Cobb becomes the go to guy, I think Jones jumps Nelson as the other Pack receiver to own. His 14 TDs from last year probably won't be repeated, but he put up decent yardage totals and found chemistry with Rodgers. He finished the year strong with 24 points in Chicago, 16 against Tennessee, and 12 in Minnesota in the final three weeks. Nelson's injury problem is real so if he misses any time, Jones' value goes up even more. As evidenced by my Broncos breakdown, I'm a fan of any receiver in a pass heavy offense. Jones' TD total goes down this year, but his yardage goes up as he gets just over 1000 yards.
Bottom Line:
What was the most talented team in the division at the start of the off season now has a plethora of question marks. How will Bulaga's loss effect the offense? Can they find an actual running back? Who will step up in Jennings' absence? Does anyone on the defense not named Clay Matthews know how to play defense? The other three teams in the division will be breathing down their necks as the Pack are still the ones with the target on their back. If they cannot figure out the solutions to the above problems then there is a chance, however slight it may be, that they miss the playoffs this year. Fantasy wise though, feel safe grabbing anyone in the passing game and keep an eye on Nelson's injury situation.
Matty O
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