Buffalo Bills
Studs: CJ Spiller, RB
Since Spiller came into the league, his fantasy value has been limited by the fact that he had to split carries in the backfield with the older, slower Fred Jackson. Now, with a new coaching staff and Jackson another year older, all signs point to Spiller getting a lot of touches and being the number one guy in the backfield. He showed what he could do when given the chance last year as he rushed for 100+ yards five times, and reached double digit fantasy points 12 times. This was done despite having six games where he saw less than 10 carries. Good news for PPR leagues is that Spiller also catches out of the backfield as he racked up 43 receptions. Jackson is still in town, but I expect him to be relegated to goal line duties and just giving Spiller a rest once in a while. Spiller is the guy to own in Buffalo.
Busts: None
It was either going to be CJ or no one. Spiller will be taken in the top 5, and the next relevant Bills player isn't going until the late 7th, early 8th round. Who might said character be?
Sleeper: Steve Johnson, WR
Listed as the 78th overall player off the board, Johnson has now posted back to back to back 1,000 yard seasons. Losing Ryan Fitzpatrick to Kevin Kolb or EJ Manuel is a bit of a downgrade and chemistry will have to be made with the two new QBs, but for where he is being drafted, I think Johnson will be a great pick. Despite finishing 2012 tied for 18th in receptions (79), he was ninth in the league in targets last year (148). He's the best, most experienced WR they have right now and, similar to in year's past, I expect them to look his way early and often. While reports coming out of Buffalo's camp is that they will run and feed the ball to Spiller more, that doesn't mean they won't pass at all. Johnson will put up another 1,000 yard campaign, something which cannot be said for Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, and Sidney Rice; three players being drafted around Johnson.
Bottom Line:
The Bills, like the Vikings last year, are putting all their hope in their RB. If Spiller cannot produce, then this offense and team as a whole, will struggle. EJ Manuel might be worth a late round flier, but anyone expecting the next RG3 will be mistaken. He might give you rushing yards some games, but his passing ability and decision making is average at best. Take Spiller, take a chance on Johnson if you're weak at WR, avoid the rest.
New York Jets
Studs: None
It's very rare that a team has zero studs, but then again, just look at last year's Jets. Now, during the offseason, they lost their starting RB (Shonn Greene), their starting TE (Dustin Keller), and their veteran and probably still most skilled receiver is still not back from injury recovery (Santonio Holmes). This team isn't devoid of talent, it's just that no one knows who will emerge, if anyone.
Busts: Chris Ivory, RB
Since he came into the league, Ivory has played on a team with an explosive offense, but a lot of RBs. While in New Orleans, he was usually stuck behind Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Mark Ingram in the battle for carries and playing time. The good news is he will most likely be the number one featured back on a new team that likes to run the football (494 attempts, 6th in the NFL). The bad news is that throughout his career, Ivory has battled multiple injuries, causing him to miss time in training camp and losing reps in practice. Also, even though they ran the ball a lot last year, it's not like they were good at it. They finished 23rd in yards per attempt with a lowly 3.8 YPA. Currently going in the mid fifth round, I think Ivory will disappoint a lot of owners this year.
Sleeper: Jeremy Kerley, WR
Out of all my sleepers, this is probably the one I am least confident about, but you never know. He is miles ahead of any of the other WRs on the roster (Holmes is still not playing), and should see the majority of the targets. I expect the Jets to be behind most games, so the passing game will need to be an option. With Keller gone, it gives Kerley even more chances to make a name for himself. On a terrible offense last year, his yardage total wasn't awful (827) and he did get 96 targets. He'll certainly not be a WR1 or WR2, but if things work out in New York, he could be a serviceable FLEX later on in the year. He is currently going undrafted in most leagues.
Miami Dolphins
Studs: Mike Wallace, WR
Wallace is one of the fastest players in the NFL, whose trademark is going deep. He should benefit the Dolphins' offense as a whole by stretching the field and opening up the underneath stuff. When he does break free, however, Ryan Tannehill has the arm to get the ball there. Just like in Pittsburgh, Wallace still comes with the feast or famine warning meaning he has big play ability, but won't show it every week. Just take a look at the second half of the season last year. He puts up four fantasy points combined in Weeks 11-13, and then goes for 112 yards and 2 TDs in Week 14. Then, he finishes the last three games with a combined 10 points. Perhaps a new system and new QB will help improve his consistency.
Busts: Miami Running Backs (Possibly)
The news has changed from Lamar Miller being the number one guy to Miller sharing carries with Daniel Thomas too many times to count. If Miller gets the starting job and the majority of the carries, then I think he is draftable where he is projected. Yet, even into late August when Miller should have had the competition wrapped up by now, there are still rumblings of a backfield committee which is a fantasy owner's worst nightmare. Stay tuned to this scenario. If it is a committee, then anyone that drafts Miller had better get Thomas in the later rounds.
Sleeper: Brian Hartline, WR
My original sleeper, Dustin Keller, was just recently lost for the season due to a low hit in a preseason game. Hartline still fits the bill. While he is no longer the "number one" WR with Wallace in town, I think he is still Tannehill's most trusted weapon, which is important when playing with a second year QB. Despite Tannehill's struggles last year, Hartline still topped 1,000 yards, despite finding the end zone only once. As previously mentioned, with Wallace opening up the middle, Hartline can fill in underneath and rack up yards and, for the PPR people out there, receptions. If chemistry between Tannehill and Wallace doesn't click, look for him to go back to Hartline and for him to have a solid year as someone's FLEX.
Bottom Line:
Losing Reggie Bush and now Dustin Keller really hurts this offense. Sure, Wallace is a nice addition, but it's not enough when you're trying to catch the New England Patriots. I think one, maybe two, players will emerge on this offense to be relevant, but not more than that. I think they finish behind New England once again and miss the playoffs once again.
New England Patriots
Studs: Tom Brady, QB, Stevan Ridley, RB, Rob Gronkowski, TE (Injury Pending)
When Brandon Lloyd left, Aaron Hernandez got caught, Wes Welker went to Denver, and Gronk remained injured, Brady's draft stock dropped like a stone. People forget that none of those players, apart from Lloyd, were anything before they played with Brady. He makes great WRs, not the other way around. They have a lot of great young talent and, when Gronk comes back, will probably not miss a beat. They might have some growing pains and struggles early on, but by the end of the year, Brady will have you saying, "Wes who?"
With BenJarvaus Green-Ellis gone, Ridley showed what he could do. He rushed for over 1200 yards and 12 TDs last year. Also, unlike some highly drafted backs, the Patriots leave him in near the goal line, so I would expect double digit TDs once again. The Patriots' running game is probably the best kept secret in the NFL. People just think Brady, and hurry up, and pass, pass, pass when they think of New England, but there's much more to it than that. The Pats actually had the second most attempts last year behind Seattle and led the league in rushing TDs as well. I think this theme holds and Ridley becomes a top 10 RB you can get in the second round.
Injuries are becoming a concern for the Gronk and it is unsure if he will start the year on the PUP list, which will cost him the first six games of the year. If that is the case, his draft stock will drop significantly. The reason it is still so high is because of how great he is when he does suit up. He was arguably Brady's favorite target along with Welker. I actually think it might be better if he does start on the PUP list. I would rather have a fully healthy, locked and loaded Gronk for the second half of the year and my playoff run, than a decent Gronk being an injury risk for the whole year. Either way, once he starts playing again, I expect his production to stay the same. No drop off here.
Bust: Danny Amendola, WR
11 out of 32 games. That's how many Amendola has been able to play in. He is one of those players that you wonder not if he will get injured, but when. People will point to his high reception and yardage totals in St. Louis, but I believe that was more of a case of him being the only guy there. Although he is touted as the main WR in New England, I'm not sure that is the case. The Pats have some promising upcoming receivers (Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson) and will be targeting their big tight ends early and often (Gronk when healthy, Zach Sudfield). While I do think he puts up decent numbers, I don't think they will reach WR1 numbers and might even disappoint as a WR2.
Sleeper: Shane Vereen, RB
There are quite a few sleepers on this team, but I think Vereen is the best bet to make some noise. Vereen benefits from Danny Woodhead leaving New England for San Diego. In the preseason, Vereen has looked impressive as he's lined up in the backfield and out at receiver to try and get a mismatch against a linebacker. While his value might be limited in standard leagues, I think he is a bona fide lock to be someone's FLEX in PPR. He is a great pass catcher and can move in space. Add in the fact that he will get some carries and chances at TDs, and you have a great value for someone going in the 9th round.
Bottom Line:
Despite all the change on offense, I don't think they miss a step. Brady will get these receivers up to par and once Gronk comes back, this offense will be scary to play against. The Pats should win this division once again as unknown names on this receiving corps will become household names by the time the season is through.
That's the end of the fantasy breakdown series. Thanks for reading folks. With a lot of drafts coming up this weekend, I'll be sure to post my draft strategy article between now and Saturday so you can draft the best team possible. Look for that coming soon.
Matty O
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