Cleveland Browns
Studs: Trent Richardson, RB
Richardson is the Browns' offense. He runs inside, outside, and catches the ball. This is great news if you're looking for a player that will get a lot of touches, but worrying news when it comes to injury concerns. He already struggled with injuries last year including a broken rib and ankle problems, and has not exactly been a picture of health early on in this off season either. Still, the Browns really don't have anyone else to go to, so expect them to keep feeding him the rock until, or if, he gets injured. As long as he can tough it out, he's a top 10 back and worthy of a late first round pick.
Bust: None
As previously mentioned, their offense was centered around one player. Their defense is towards the bottom so there's really no bust candidates on this team.
Sleeper: Jordan Cameron, TE
Cameron has done little in his short two year NFL career with the Browns, but now that the starting TE position is open, he looks like the best candidate to fill that void. He's similar to the new age pass catching tight ends that have come into the league as of late (Gronk, Graham) and at 6'5", 245 lbs., he certainly has the tools to become a great pass catcher. Norv Turner came over from San Diego and is now calling the shots on offense. Remember how he turned Antonio Gates into a star in San Diego? I would not be surprised if he looks to do the same here given Cameron's size and Weeden's limited passing skills as a QB. Depending on how big your league is, he will probably go undrafted. Maybe snag him with your last pick if you missed out on the TE train, or scoop him up off waivers. Keep an eye on him to see how he does early in the year.
Bottom Line:
The Browns are still the Browns, and no amount of T-Rich can change that. I do think they will be better this year as T-Rich and Weeden will have another year under their belt and WRs such as Josh Gordon showed they have ability. The defense picked up Paul Kruger and they still have one of the best defensive backs in the game in Joe Haden. Still, T-Rich is the only fantasy relevant person on this team at this time, as the Browns will likely finish last in the AFC North once again.
Cincinnati Bengals
Studs: AJ Green, WR
Green is living up to his number four overall NFL draft selection by following up his rookie year with an even better 2012. Green went for 1,350 receiving yards and 11 TDs. Rather than simply line him up on the outside, the Bengals did a great job last year of moving him all around the formations. He is a great route runner, has great hands, and is clearly QB Andy Dalton's favorite target. He played in all 16 games last year and posted two games of 20+ points. Consider him a good bet to finish in the top 5 WRs, as he will probably be the second WR off the board.
Bust: None
Sorry to give you guys two "nones" in a row, but who fits that description on this team? Dalton will go undrafted. Their defense, if anything, is underrated. AJ is going to put up numbers. Well, what about their RBs? Well, allow me to direct you to the sleeper section for the Bengals.
Sleeper: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB
The popular belief in fantasy football right now is that by the end of the year, rookie Giovani Bernard will replace BJGE and receive the majority of the carries. While that might happen, I don't think it will be until very late in the year and I think BJGE will put up decent fantasy numbers before it's all said and done. People lost interest in BJGE when he left New England claiming he benefited from an explosive offense and great offensive line. True, but that doesn't mean he's a scrub. He rushed for 1,094 yards last year, which was more than Richardson, LeSean McCoy, Steven Jackson, and tied with Matt Forte. He also tagged on six TDs, which was more than Forte, Jamaal Charles, and Jackson, and tied with CJ Spiller and Chris Johnson. So why is he projected as the 29th back off the board? I'm not sure. At worst, he will see a 50/50 split to start the season, and at best he'll get a good chunk of the carries once again. He certainly won't win you a week, and he will have those spurts where he puts up less than stellar numbers. Still, getting him after Ryan Mathews, a handful of unproven rookies, and the oft injured Ahmad Bradshaw? Sign me up.
Bottom Line:
The RB situation is the one to watch in Cincy to see if Bernard does overtake BJGE. He certainly has more explosive ability, but it will be up to the coaching staff to decide if they trust the rookie enough to carry the load. Green is the safest bet on this team and it's possible that a WR2 will emerge, although I don't think he will be fantasy relevant except in deep leagues.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs: Antonio Brown, WR, Ben Roethlisberger, QB
Brown was a borderline choice to make this category, but I'll put him here now that Mike Wallace is gone. Brown should be Ben's go to guy and will be very attractive in PPR leagues. He had 66 receptions despite missing three games and being the number two receiver behind Wallace. Those 66 receptions were still more than Percy Harvin, Anquan Boldin, and yes, his own teammate, Wallace. Brown will be moved all over the place as he is a great possession receiver with the ability to break lose every so often. He showed great chemistry with Big Ben and should benefit from Todd Haley's quick pass offense. He should be a solid WR2 for this upcoming year.
Big Ben's 2012 will probably be remembered for his injury problems, as the Steelers went 1-2 in the three games he missed, then lost three straight when he came back from his injury. Don't forget, however, that he started the year on a tear. He threw for over 240 yards in each of his first three games, accumulating eight TDs and only one INT. He cooled off after that start, but still threw for over 300 yards two more times and put up two more 20+ games. Although he clashed with Haley on his philosophy of offense, it seemed to do Big Ben good as the quick throws added up. Now, with even more time to familiarize himself with Haley's system, Big Ben should be a viable starting fantasy QB.
Bust: Le'Veon Bell, RB
The thing causing Bell to move up draft boards is the hype. He's a second round pick coming into a backfield where he has the opportunity to (and probably will) be the number one back and get the majority of the carries. People that have seen him in camp have raved about how well he is performing and Pittsburgh is known for its smash mouth style. Or are they? Haley has changed how the Steelers' offense looks. Gone are the days of smashing the line of scrimmage with backs and in are these quick passes to get receivers in space. The Steelers finished in the bottom half of the league in rushing attempts last year with a mere 412. On the flip side, they finished tied for 10th in passing attempts last year. I expect that discrepancy to become even greater now that Haley's system is firmly in place. Bell is a respectable pass catcher, but certainly has less than spectacular speed. He's still an unproven rookie so while the opportunity is there, I think that the bar is being set too high as he will finish the year as maybe a FLEX option.
Sleeper: Big Ben, QB
I should point out that, on top of what I said earlier, Big Ben is currently projected as the 14th QB off the board. This means that, in most leagues, he won't be a starter for a team. Despite missing time last year, he only had one single digit game where he played the entire game. That is the same amount as Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning. He also put up 31 against Oakland in Week 3. 31 points is a mark that Brees, Manning, and Colin Kaepernick were not able to reach last year. And yet he's the 14th off the board? Depending on who falls where in your draft, if you can load up on the other positions and let your league mates take QBs early, Big Ben would not be the worst guy to have as your starter. Definitely draft a backup and don't be too shocked if he misses some time due to injury. Still, for a guy that will probably put up around 250 and 2 TDs each game including the occasional QB sneak, I would think that 14th overall is much too low.
Bottom Line:
Lots of uncertainty here with the Steelers. They lost their starting WR and still have a mess to sort out at running back as they got rid of Rashard Mendenhall and brought in Bell. I think the Steelers could surprise some people with the turnover in Baltimore (spoiler alert) and the Bengals being vulnerable. The defense was still pretty good, just not at forcing turnovers last year. Expect those numbers to go up as the Steelers return to the playoffs in 2013.
Baltimore Ravens
Studs: Ray Rice, RB
Rice, similar to T-Rich, does it all. His running speaks for itself, but his ability to catch the ball and make plays is what sets him apart and keeps him in the top 10 fantasy picks year in and year out. Late July brought good news for Rice as the Ravens resigned Pro Bowl fullback Vonta Leach. Leach should continue to pave the way for Rice, and the screen game and dump off yards should make owners very pleased. There are rumblings that backup running back Bernard Pierce will take some of Rice's carries, but I doubt it will be significant enough to keep from Rice finishing in the top 10 RBs again.
Bust: Torrey Smith, WR
Smith will drive you crazy if he is on your team. He is one of the most up and down players that I've ever seen. His ups from last year included a 24 pointer against the Patriots, and an 18 pointer against the Raiders. His lows included a zero against the Steelers, a one against the Broncos, and a two against the Redskins. Smith does have the luxury of being the man at WR now that Boldin is gone, although I'm not sure if that is the best thing for him. Smith, similar to a DeSean Jackson, is a straight line speed player. As long as teams can keep a safety over the top, it really limits what Smith can do offensively. He'll probably be drafted as a FLEX for some team, possibly even a WR2. I don't think he's either as the lows are too devastating and frequent to make up for his occasional high. Draft him at your own risk.
Sleeper: Dallas Clark, TE
This was convenient for me that this story broke today, otherwise coming up with a sleeper would have been tough. Clark signed with the Ravens due to Dennis Pitta's season ending injury and Ed Dickson's injury issues as well. While I think Dickson recovers from the injury, I like Clark as one of those older players that has one more good year left in him. Clark was limited by Josh Freeman last year, and saw less than ideal receptions. Now he moves to a team that, in 2012, saw Pitta tally almost as many receptions (61) as Clark had targets (76). He might be 34 years old, but he's proven in Indy that he can be a productive real life and fantasy tight end. I think he clicks with Flacco and becomes his go to safety valve as Clark becomes a playable starting TE in fantasy by the end of the year.
Bottom Line:
The mass exodus of players from the Ravens' defense could have more of an impact than the Ravens realize. Obviously the defense will struggle to find an identity, but I also think this will force the offense into catch up mode for a lot of games. This is bad news for Rice owners as this means less carries, and bad news for the offense as Flacco is not the guy I would want leading a comeback game in and game out. He's just too inconsistent. Rice should still be taken in the top 10, probably the top 8 of drafts, but barring a major injury, the rest of the Ravens can be passed on.
Matty O.
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