Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Studs: Doug Martin, RB, Vincent Jackson, WR
Martin was on people's radar last year, but I don't think anyone expected him to do that well. Unsure if he would even get the starting job over LeGarrette Blount, Martin struggled out of the gate rushing for less than 100 yards in his first four games with only one TD. After the bye week, however, he started putting up productive numbers. His coming out party, or rather parties, were in Weeks 8 and 9. Week 8 saw him rack up 32 fantasy points in Minnesota, only to follow that up with a whopping 51 in Oakland in Week 9. Unheard of for a fantasy player. Now he is the unquestioned starter and has a QB with limited skills. The Bucs should run the ball a lot and give Martin plenty of opportunities to put up numbers.
The fact that Jackson was productive for the Bucs and Phillip Rivers struggled so much without him, goes to show just how good of a receiver Jackson is. He topped 100 yards five times last year including the pass-a-palooza against the Saints in Week 7 where he racked up 216 yards on only seven catches. As mentioned before, he is limited by QB Josh Freeman's skill, but he's definitely the number one target on that team with Mike Williams a distant second. Martin's emergence might even work in Jackson's favor as team's may stack the box now that they have had a whole offseason to prepare for Martin. If that is the case, Freeman can use the play action and find Jackson deep. When Freeman has time, he can certainly sling the rock, and Jackson will be doing most of the catching.
Bust: Martin, RB
Weeks 8 and 9 were awesome for Martin, but the rest of the games? He was so-so. He only had one other game where he went over 20 points, and was held to single digit points in four games last year including a two in Week 15 against the Saints. How many playoff runs did that end for Martin owners? There is also the fact that he won't surprise anyone this year and defenses will be ready for the Muscle Hamster in 2013. I expect more teams to stack the box and dare Freeman to throw it. While Martin may be able to break through, I'm not completely sold on his draft position where he is going as high as number three. That's very high for a second year player who scored one third of his points in two games last year. I'd rather take a proven player like Marshawn Lynch or Jamaal Charles than Martin.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Revis Island can turn a sub par defense into an elite one. On top of that, they picked up former 49er and two time Pro Bowler, in safety Dashon Goldson. Team those two up with safety Mark Barron and you have a respectable secondary. Despite getting torched by teams last year, the Bucs actually boasted the best run defense in terms of yards per game in the league. Keeping that front seven intact and adding skilled players in the secondary makes this defense one to reckon with. They get a bit of a bad break by having three explosive offenses within their division (Carolina, New Orleans, Atlanta). Still, they might surprise those teams and fantasy owners alike when they lock down teams and become a very good fantasy defense.
Bottom Line:
Even with all the firepower in Atlanta and New Orleans, I think Tampa Bay will have something to say before the division is decided. Although Martin is in the bust section, I still think he will do well. I expect them to run even more this year and try to keep the opposing offense off the field. Even when that offense does come on, Revis Island will be waiting with a stout run defense. This team could surprise people and, depending on what happens during their head to head matchups, could unseat Atlanta for the division crown.
Carolina Panthers
Studs: Cam Newton, QB, Steve Smith, WR
Newton, due to his running prowess, will always have the potential to put up big fantasy numbers. Unlike some other running QBs in the league (Vick, Kaepernick), his arm is unquestioned. While his decision making could still use some work at times, he does have a cannon for an arm. His rushing yards and especially TDs are even more valuable in standard scoring leagues. It's an interesting year for Cam as the owner has expressed his concern about Cam not winning in real life, yet he has produced since he came into the league in fantasy. Despite the front office wanting Cam to win more, I doubt the Panthers do as the other teams in this division are simply more talented. I expect the Panthers to come in last, but for Cam to still have a good year.
As Cam goes, so goes Steve Smith. There are plenty of reasons not to believe in Smith; he's 34, he's constantly double teamed, and he's also on the small side. Year in and year out, however, he continues to produce respectable fantasy numbers. His value in PPR leagues is much higher than in standard, but he will still put up WR2 and certainly FLEX production. His low TDs total last year are what brought his overall fantasy numbers down. While I do not expect that number to drastically go up, I'm not really expecting him to put up that production anyways. Where he is drafted provides great value as he will be Cam's first option in the Panthers' passing game.
Bust: Any Panthers Running Back
I did this last year, and I'll probably do it every year until either DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart leave Carolina. Throw in Mike Tolbert as well. Then take into account that they have to compete with their own QB for rushing yards and rushing TDs and you can see why you want to avoid this situation. If one or two of the three gets injured or traded, then the odd one out is the one to own. Still, I wouldn't take any of them until the situation becomes clearer.
Sleeper: Greg Olsen, TE
At a position that has very few sure things this year, Olsen seems like a safe pick with upside. He finished with close to 850 yards last year with 5 TDs. They lined him up in the slot often, as he became the second option after Steve Smith. He has a big frame and above average speed for a TE. If Cam has a better statistical year this year, then Olsen could very well be the primary beneficiary. Instead of springing for Graham in one of the earlier rounds, look to pick up Olsen in the middle rounds. At best, he could be a top three fantasy TE, at worst he will probably perform where you drafted him. High ceiling and high floor for this guy.
Bottom Line:
The Panthers are an explosive offense that handcuff fantasy owners because of the committee that they have at running back. If they could sort that out, that would make the Panthers much more attractive fantasy wise. As it stands Cam is probably the safest bet here with Smith being guaranteed solid production, but nothing more. It's possible Brandon LaFell finally emerges this year, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Atlanta Falcons
Studs: Steven Jackson, RB, Julio Jones, WR, Roddy White, WR, Matt Ryan, QB
I have honestly been waiting for this division because now I can talk about the player I think will make the biggest jump this year, Steven Jackson. He's currently going in the second round, but I think he is a first round back and will finish in the top 5 for backs this year. Why? Well, for starters, the fact that he produced for the Rams and their miserable offense is a testament to his skill. Secondly, despite his large frame, he is a great pass catching back who is now on a team that threw that ball 615 times last year. Third, consider that Michael Turner put up respectable fantasy numbers with the Falcons. I love me some Turner the Burner, but anyone that thinks that he is better than S-Jax is crazy. The Falcons high flying act should open up the line of scrimmage for S-Jax and/or put the Falcons up by so much that they can just feed S-Jax late in the game to rack up those garbage yards. I am very high on S-Jax this year and I imagine he will be on a lot of teams that win their leagues this year.
Jones has possibly the biggest upside of any fantasy player, but is limited by the numerous other weapons on this team. Still, he's a big play threat every time he touches the ball, and I expect him to see even more targets this year. His only weakness seems to be playing at home. I don't think I've ever seen a more interesting discrepancy between home and away stats. His home numbers (in fantasy points): 1, 3, 6, 12, 3, 4, 20, 5. His away numbers: 22, 12, 15, 18, 7, 20, 12, 13. Shouldn't influence you taking him in the second round, but just a weird disparity.
Opposite Jones is the veteran Roddy White who just keeps doing his thing. Despite Jones getting all the preseason hype this year, it was White that finished last year with more targets, catches, and receiving yards than Jones. Jones, however, is more athletically gifted at this stage in their careers and can more easily make something out of nothing. These two are almost developing into the Panthers backfield situation as there were only three games last year where both had double digit points. It was usually either Jones going big or White scoring big. I think that gets pulled more in Jones's favor this year, but I still wouldn't mind having White as my WR1 and certainly as my WR2.
Ryan, or Matty Ice, went for 4700 yards last year and bumped his TD total up to 32. The addition of S-Jax only further helps Ryan who should see those numbers stay the same, and hopefully see his interceptions (14) drop. Ryan only had two single digit games last year; Week 6 against Oakland where he scored 8 fantasy points, and a five interception debacle against Arizona where he scored 2 fantasy points (Atlanta won both games somehow). He's a safe bet to be a top 5 QB, and possibly a top 3 QB if the offense clicks like it looks on paper.
Bust: Tony Gonzalez, TE
Gonzo did finish in the top three for TEs in nearly every major statistical category last year. Still, he's not getting any younger and S-Jax in town means even less targets than he was getting last year when Julio and Roddy were around. Apart from the players that retire early, every player has a year where they fall off the proverbial cliff no matter how good they are. I believed in him prior to last year, but not in 2013. He is TD dependent and certainly lacks the speed he used to have to break a big play. I think he fades in this explosive Falcons offense.
Sleeper: None
I mentioned every single relevant Falcons fantasy player above.
Bottom Line:
The division winners last year will be the favorites to do so again despite three dangerous teams lurking in their division. If everything goes according to plan, then this could be one of the greatest offenses the NFL has ever seen. You have an elite QB, two elite WRs, an elite RB, and pretty good, although aging, TE. Feel confident drafting anyone on this offense.
New Orleans Saints
Studs: Drew Brees, QB, Jimmy Graham, TE, Darren Sproles, RB, Marques Colston, WR
Even without Sean Payton, Brees still put up monster numbers. 5,177 yards and 43 TDs?! And he's still projected to go behind Aaron Rodgers in the draft? C'mon man. He only had one single digit game last year which was the disaster 5 interception game against the Falcons in Week 13. That anomaly aside, he went for more than 20 points nine times last year, despite rushing for five total yards and only one rushing TD. Now he gets offensive minded Payton back at the helm. All I can say is yikes! While Rodgers will probably be the first QB off your draft board, it is Brees that should be the first one off.
Graham missed time last year and still finished as fantasy's top TE. Now that Gronk is questionable coming back from an injury, Graham looks to be the clear cut number on TE in fantasy and it's not even close. His size and production allows owners to essentially treat him as another WR, which would have been unheard of for a TE a few years ago (exception: Antonio Gates). I've already mentioned that I'm high on the Brees-Payton combo returning to New Orleans and I think Graham will benefit the most.
Sproles is a beast for PPR leagues, but still serviceable in standard ones as well. Although Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas see their share of playing time, it is Sproles who has consistently separated himself from the other two. They move him all over the field and he is a matchup nightmare in open space against a linebacker. His first two games last year he registered double digit fantasy points without taking a single hand off. He's a player with a diverse skill set that drives defenses crazy, but makes fantasy owners happy.
Colston won't be a spectacular WR, but he'll be consistent. While Graham is driving defenses up the field, Colston usually hangs out in the area underneath, giving Brees a tall target to throw to. Every once in a while he'll have a monster game like in Week 5 against San Diego where he put up 131 yards and 3 TDs, but mostly he'll just put up decent numbers. Similar to Sproles, Colston is even more valuable in PPR as Brees slings the ball around on a vast majority of plays. He is a solid WR2.
Bust: None
I think everyone will be drafted where they need to be with this team. You'll either be getting your value or something better if you pick a Saint this year.
Sleeper: Nick Toon, WR
Toon, unless you have a high number of teams in your league, will not be drafted. That doesn't mean he should go unnoticed. Now that Devery Henderson is gone and Joe Morgan got injured in training camp, the WR3 slot opens up behind Colston and Lance Moore. The Saints did just sign Steve Breaston, but I would not be surprised if they gave the young, unproven rookie a shot, rather than the older, proven he's not that good, veteran. Brees threw the ball 670 times last season and those footballs have to go to someone. Even though the Saints claim they will run the ball more in 2013, I think those attempts stay around the same, if not go up. If Toon can solidify himself as the third WR, it will be interesting to see how he meshes in that offense.
Bottom Line:
Ironically, the best helper of this explosive offense might just be their defense. Their defense is so bad that Brees has to get into shootouts just to win football games. That's unfortunate for the Saints, but awesome for fantasy football players. This offense should be even more explosive than last year, if that's even possible, and Brees and Graham should both wind up as the number one player at their position at the end of the year.
Matty O
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