Dallas Cowboys
Studs: Tony Romo, QB, Dez Bryant, WR, Jason Witten, TE
Romo is the poster boy for why you should consider stats instead of reputation for fantasy football. For the second year in a row, he's ranked fairly low (outside the top 10 QBs) despite finishing in the top 10 for QBs the past three seasons. He plays on a pass happy team with one of the best WRs in the game, and is called upon to try and outscore the opposition given that the Cowboys' defense is so awful. I'm a Cowboys fan and I hate the real life Romo. He throws backbreaking interceptions and makes decisions that show why he was undrafted in the first place. For fantasy purposes, however, he's gold. Consider the Broncos game last year where he threw a terrible interception late in that game to seal the deal for Denver, but also had 506 yards and five TDs. He's one of the best values in all of fantasy football and should, once again, post a top 10 season.
The past two seasons, Dez has turned into one of the best WRs in the NFL. With his off the field problems seemingly behind him, Dez is now the number one option on this explosive offense. He finished sixth in fantasy points last year and proved how much of a TD machine he is with the third most TD grabs in the NFL, behind only Jimmy Graham and Demaryius Thomas. I would expect those numbers to stay about the same given his size, aggressiveness, and leaping ability. Calvin Johnson will still go first in most drafts, but Dez is in the tier right behind him with Thomas, AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, and Julio Jones. I'd take Dez behind only Calvin and Thomas. Having played a full season the past two years with at least 92 receptions and 12 TDs in each, Dez is an extremely safe pick.
Dez may have become the first option on this team, but Witten will still get his share of looks. Although his 851 yards in 2013 were his lowest since 2006, it was still good for fifth among TEs as he finished sixth in fantasy last year. He doesn't have the upside as a lot of the young TEs available and won't wow anyone on draft day. What he does have is a QB who still looks his way quite often and the size and route running ability to still be a threat in the passing game. The ceiling is low, but the floor is high. Expect another top eight finish, which is about how he's being drafted.
Bust: DeMarco Murray, RB
It's hard for me to slander this guy because he helped me to a third place finish in PPR last year, but, similar to someone like Knowshon Moreno, I think 2013 was more of an outlier than the norm. Owners of Murray, particularly those in PPR, were happy with his 1,471 all purpose yards, 10 TDs, and 53 receptions. The problem is that, including last year, injuries have always nagged him. He has yet to play a full 16 games, and will continue to be held back by the coaching staff. Unlike smart coaching staffs, Jason Garrett likes to throw it all the time instead of run it, even if the Boys are up by two with less than three minutes to go. The Cowboys, and the entire division see the NFC West this year which is bad news for any of these backs. While the 49ers, Cards, and Rams can be passed on, they're very stout in the run game (Seattle is the reverse of that). Murray is certainly safer in PPR formats because I do think the reception totals will be 40+, but drafting him as a top 10 back is risky.
Sleeper: Terrance Williams, WR
Defenses know who Dez Bryant is. Defenses know who Jason Witten is. This is good news for Williams. As a rookie, Williams put up great numbers for being the third option on this team with 736 yards and five TDs (by the way, those yardage totals are higher than Dez's rookie year when Dez was behind Miles Austin). While I don't think a Marshall/Jeffery or White/Jones situation develops, I do think Williams puts up enough stats to be a WR2 in any format. The Cowboys don't really have a viable WR3 so Williams should see just as much of the field as Dez. This could be his breakout year.
Bottom Line
Bad defense + good offense = awesome for fantasy. If Murray stays healthy, you could argue the Cowboys are right behind the Broncos for overall fantasy strength. Romo, Murray, Dez, and Witten all finished in the top 10 at their respective positions last year. They will be behind in most games and should have to rely on their offense to pick up wins.
New York Giants
Studs: Eli Manning, QB, Victor Cruz, WR
Just like Murray's case where one great season shouldn't cancel out the other bad ones, one bad season shouldn't cancel out all the other good ones either. Last year was a disaster for Eli and the entire Giants' offense. He had his lowest yardage totals since 2008, had a ridiculous 27 interceptions, and had his lowest TD total since he became a starter for the G-Men. The good news is that his passing attempts stayed about where he normally is (551 attempts), they're implementing a West Coast scheme which will get the ball out of Eli's hands quicker, and the Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams combo will be better than the disaster of a backfield they had last year. I'm not too concerned if the yardage stays about the same, but if he can bring his TDs up in the mid 20s and drop his INTs to the teens, he could be a great value considering he'll probably go undrafted in most leagues.
Cruz got off to an amazing start last year, finishing with 118+ yards in three of his first four games with four total TDs. After that, you could have dropped him to waivers. He didn't score another TD, only had one more triple digit yard game, and didn't play the last two weeks of the season. Amazingly, he still almost finished among the top 25 WRs for fantasy, despite the lack of offense. If he'll finish as a top 25 WR when everything went wrong, then definitely sign me up as a Cruz believer in 2014. He still has big play ability and can turn a five yard slant into a TD at any time. He's Manning's unquestioned number one option and should get plenty of chances to shine with the porous Giants' defense. Look for Cruz to challenge for a spot among the top 12 WRs.
Bust: None
I actually think most players on this team are being under drafted, probably due to their disaster 2013. Remember folks, this is 2014.
Sleeper: Andre Williams and Rashad Jennings, RB
It's very rare that two players at the same position are sleepers, but that is the case here. Jennings gained recognition in Oakland, filling the "guy who would come in when Darren McFadden got injured" role and did quite well. He had six double digit fantasy games last year in his limited work. Now he'll pretty much be a featured back in this offense as the Giants try to find a consistent backfield option. He's being drafted around the number 25 RB, but I think he easily finishes in the top 20, maybe top 15 but it would require a few injuries to the guys ahead of him.
The reason why I'm skeptical Jennings will break the top 15 is because of Williams. If you're in a PPR league, you can stop reading right now because Williams doesn't really have value there. He caught a grand total of zero passes in 13 games at BC last year and I expect that number to be about the same. Standard leagues, however, are more reliant on TDs and that is what Williams will bring. He's a great, bowling ball style runner who should see pretty much all of the goal line carries for this squad. He may even see some between the 20s early down work given how well he's played this preseason. A Heisman candidate a year ago, Williams will be a TD dependent player on a better than most think offense.
Bottom Line
The hope here with the Giants is that they can't be as bad as they were last year. All members of this team became useless by year's end. New pieces are always good to a team who performed like they did last year, while Cruz and Manning should be expected to return to form, or at least better than last year.
Philadelphia Eagles
Studs: LeSean McCoy, RB
Chip Kelly's no huddle offense has upgraded McCoy from a great player to an elite player. Along with Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, and Matt Forte, McCoy will be one of the first picks off the board in all drafts (number one or two in PPR). He's one of the most talented runners in the game and catches his fair share of balls out of the backfield (52 in 2013). Sure, newly acquired RB Darren Sproles could eat into some of that, but there will be plenty to go around with the volume of plays the Eagles run. McCoy is a safe bet to finish in the top five with a number one RB finish not out of the question.
Bust: Nick Foles, QB
To be fair, I still think he puts up solid numbers and should be someone's starter in a 10 team league. This is simply a warning against reaching for his 27 TD/2 INT performance last year. That crazy ratio isn't going to happen again. Also keep in mind that more than a quarter of his TDs came in one game last year when he tossed seven of them against the Raiders. Despite playing in a defensively weak division, he performed rather poorly against the NFC East last year. There's also the fact that defense is very reactionary. Consider the RG3/Kaepernick/Cam Newton read option year when they were going bananas. It took defenses a year, but they closed the gap. We've seen hurry up offense in the NFL before, but never like the Eagles ran last year. It will still be effective, but to a lesser extent this season as teams have dissected it in the offseason. Apart from Trent Richardson, Foles may be the most polarizing player in this year's draft. Some say last year was a fluke, some say it's a sign of things to come. I'm in the middle, leaning towards the fluke side, but still think he stays as a top 10 QB.
Sleeper: Jeremy Maclin, WR
Heading into last season, I was really high on Maclin in Kelly's explosive offense. Unfortunately, he suffered an ACL injury and missed all of 2013. It sounds like he'll be healthy to start the year in 2014, and should start the year as the number one WR on this squad with DeSean Jackson now in Washington. In 2012, Maclin's last playing season, he put up 857 yards and seven TDs in 15 games without a no huddle offense. With Jackson's departure, I think Maclin eclipses 1,000 yards (career high is 964 in 2010) and finishes in the 6-9 TD range. His upside is huge playing in this offense. He's going behind the likes of Percy Harvin, Julian Edelman, and Cordarrelle Patterson, all of whom I think he outperforms.
Bottom Line
Kelly's offense hit the NFL like a hurricane last year as defenses struggled to keep up. It won't be quite as explosive this year, but should be one of the top five offensive units in the league. A lot rests on Foles' development as a QB and if he can sustain close to the same success he had last year. If so, then you can feel safe taking just about anyone on this squad.
Washington Redskins
Studs: Pierre Garcon, WR, DeSean Jackson, WR, Alfred Morris, RB, Robert Griffin III, QB
After four years of playing with Peyton Manning in Indy, Garcon seems to have found a nice landing spot in DC. For PPR purposes, he's as safe as you can get as he had 5+ catches in every game last year while putting up 1,346 yards and 5 TDs. RG3 looks to him early and often, and I don't think that changes even with the signing of D-Jax and Jordan Reed's emergence. He runs any route they need him to and should be drafted ahead of fellow wideout D-Jax.
The deep ball is D-Jax's calling card. While Garcon can make those plays, Jackson is better at it. He's lightning fast and just has a knack for getting open deep, even with safety help. As you might have guessed, this can lead to weeks where he wins it for you, and others where he does close to nothing. He had just as many 100+ yard games last year as he did games where he had 36 yards or less. If you're willing to deal with that week to week fluctuation, then D-Jax could be a solid pick for you.
Morris is extremely TD dependent and loses quite a bit of value in PPR as he rarely catches the ball. After finishing as the fifth best fantasy RB in 2012 thanks to 13 TDs, he dropped all the way to 15th due to only scoring seven TDs. The good news is he has yet to miss a game in his NFL career and should still finish in the top 20 in standard leagues. He seems to have the backfield job sewn up so it's really just a matter of finding the end zone, as the yards should be there. Low ceiling, high floor, but be wary in PPR leagues.
RG3 retains his stud status, though he certainly regressed last year. He may have thrown for more yards, but his 16:12 TD to INT ratio was a major step back from his rookie year 20:5 ratio. Injury was once again a concern for him as he only played in 13 games and looked almost scared to run free like he did his rookie year. RG3's usage is probably what will limit his value, but if he is unleashed, I think he returns to his unstoppable rookie year form. I've been saying it since he got drafted, but RG3 is an average thrower, at best. When the threat of the running game is there, however, he's lethal. The problem is the Redskins view RG3 as an investment and are trying to protect him physically by telling him to stay in the pocket and limit his runs. This, in turn, limits his effectiveness as well as his fantasy value. He has the potential to finish top five, but will likely finish towards the back of the top 10. Still a starter.
Bust: DeSean Jackson, WR
While Jackson is a nice pickup for the Redskins' team, I think it kills his value. Garcon is the number one option with his team as he already has chemistry with RG3 and has proved he can put up the numbers. He was inconsistent in Philly and will bring the same boom or bust style over to DC. Last year was great for him, but that was mainly a product of the quick tempo offense that the Eagles ran last year. He had 20 more catches than he ever had in a season last year, out gained his previous career high in yards by a little under 200, and tied his career high in TDs that he got back in 2009. I think he puts up two or three huge games, then does very little in between. His threat of the deep ball should help his teammates, but I don't like his current second round draft position. I actually think Jackson is a candidate for one of the worst busts of the year.
Sleeper: Jordan Reed, TE
Had Reed not gotten a concussion which cost him the rest of the year in Week 11, there's a chance he would be ranked higher. Good news for those who know how effective Reed was last year. Reed started off slow, but really came on in Weeks 7-10, highlighted by a 9 catch, 134 yard, 1 TD performance against the Bears. The sample size is obviously small, but for those who watched him those games, you could tell that he was another TE in the recent line of athletic, mismatch TEs. He's extremely athletic with decent hands, and great ability to run after the catch. D-Jax over the top should help clear up even more space than last year. He, along with Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz are guys that are being drafted outside of the top five TEs that have a real shot of being there by the end of the year.
Bottom Line
There's a bit of unpredictability surrounding the Redskins this year, even if it's mixed with feelings of excitement. They have a new OC, a new deep threat WR, and RG3 and Reed coming back from injury. On paper, this offense looks unstoppable. Still, everyone except Morris has a bit of injury history and all it takes is one hit on RG3 for the whole narrative in DC to change.
That'll wrap up another year of breakdowns for fantasy football. Thanks for reading along and hopefully these have confirmed your preexisting thoughts about a player or made you look at a player in a different light for better or worse. Remember, the draft is just the starting point and weekly start/sit decisions and working the waiver wire are just as important. Good luck to all of you in your drafts, unless you're in a league with me. In that case, I advise you take the Cowboys defense first round. Trust me, they're due. Happy drafting!
Matty O
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
2014 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Studs: CJ Spiller, RB
If Spiller were used correctly, he would probably have better numbers and less injuries. The new coaching staff in Buffalo seems intent on making Spiller a between the tackles runner, which doesn't suit his small stature. He does his best out in space where he is as dangerous as anyone. Last year he was nagged by a persistent ankle injury, but in 2012, he ran for 1,244 yards, 6 TDs, and caught 43 passes for an offensively challenged Buffalo team. His touches might be low, but he has the home run ability to take any carry or catch to the house in the blink of an eye. Due to his low volume with Fred Jackson around, he won't be the most consistent of all players. Still, health pending, he's a good bet to go over 1,000 yards rushing again with at least 40 catches. There's risk in drafting him, but is it any more risk than the RBs directly after him (Frank Gore, Andre Ellington, Trent Richardson)?
Bust: Sammy Watkins, WR
The highest WR taken in this year's draft, Watkins has decent size and speed for days. The problem is he's still a rookie and has an average at best QB throwing him the ball on a run first team. He'll likely get the opponent's top corner week in and week out and see defenses shading his way. Apart from being from Clemson, Watkins shares the big play ability that Spiller also has. In single coverage, Watkins is a good bet to beat his man with pure speed for a 50 or 60 yard bomb on any given play. Can EJ Manuel make the read and get him the ball is the important question. I say no, more often than not, as Watkins struggles to find consistency. I think there's one or two weeks where he goes off and everyone proclaims him as the second coming of Jerry Rice, but the other weeks he'll put up weak numbers in a weak aerial attack.
Sleeper: Fred Jackson, RB
Run, run, run. Even if Spiller is healthy, Jackson will get his. Jackson remains an ageless wonder, mainly due to the fact that he is able to run in a committee alongside Spiller, and now Bryce Brown. He is Buffalo's unquestioned goal line back and would get close to full time duties if Spiller were to go down. Jackson won't bust that big gain like Spiller, but he'll give you nice chunks that lead to a score. He's also quite adept in the passing game as well, securing at least 31 catches every year since his rookie season. He's a great bargain in the 8th round and needs to be owned by all Spiller owners as well.
Bottom Line
Lots of potential for this Buffalo squad, but I'm not sure they make it all gel. They're still looking for their franchise QB, and I doubt they have it in Manuel. The skill position players are there for this offense, but the ability to make all these parts click is not.
Miami Dolphins
Studs: None
The Dolphins actually have quite a few similarities to the Bills. They both have young QBs, backfield committees that limit their running backs' value, and a big name WR that will not reach their full potential on their respective squads.
Bust: Knowshon Moreno, RB
The Dolphins signed Moreno this summer, but Peyton Manning didn't come with him. That's an issue. Manning, as he's done with many RBs in the past, turned Moreno into an absolute superstar. He finished as the fifth best fantasy RB last year, while holding off the much hyped Montee Ball in the process. In Miami, however, he'll see more stacked boxes and Ryan Tannehill standing next to him instead of Manning. Prior to last year, Moreno hadn't played a full season since his 2009 rookie year, played only 15 games combined from 2011-12, never rushed for over 1,000 yards, and lost a fumble in every season prior to last. Whether it's injury or performance, I think Moreno takes a big jump back, enough to make him a non factor in fantasy this year. Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas, and Mike Gillislee will also be in the mix for touches as well.
Sleeper: Mike Wallace, WR
Believe it or not, Wallace actually set a career high in receptions last year in his first year with the Dolphins. His 930 yards were third best in his five year career, but his five TDs were the lowest. With someone as explosive as Wallace, you'd expect the yards and TDs to come once the receptions start racking up. He had an extremely disappointing debut with one catch for 15 yards, but played well down the stretch. While Tannehill might not make the best decisions, he does have the arm to get the ball down field to Wallace. Wallace is the unquestioned number one option in Miami and should continue to see plenty of looks. He also won't cost you as high of a pick like he did when he was in Pittsburgh.
Bottom Line
Much of the success of this offense centers around Tannehill's progress. He's improving, but far from being elite. Charles Clay turned into a nice safety valve for him last year and Moreno should at least be able to keep some of the other backs fresher. This team doesn't excite me fantasy wise in 2014, but they could have a few good players a couple years from now.
New England Patriots
Studs: Tom Brady, QB, Rob Gronkowski, TE (health pending)
Brady's 2013 was a rocky one. Without Gronk early on, Shane Vereen going down, and a bunch of rookie WRs, Brady struggled, as many QBs would. His consistency was better down the stretch, however, once more players got healthy and the rooks started to get it. 2014 looks much brighter. For starters, it looks like Brady will have Gronk much sooner than last year, if not by Week 1. Vereen, their best receiving back, is once again healthy. All the rookies have had a full season and another offseason to get better. They also got Brandon LaFell, a bigger, veteran WR for Brady on the outside. I think Brady easily gets back into the top 10, and maybe even pushes top five if Gronk stays healthy.
Health is the only thing that can hold Gronk back. If you were to turn injuries off like in a video game, the argument could be made for taking Gronk over Jimmy Graham. Alas, Gronk's injury problems are well documented as he has played a total of 18 games the last two years. Gronk's return was highly anticipated last year after he missed the first six weeks of the season. He came in, did work for a few weeks, then got injured again in Week 14 making his status for the start of this season uncertain. When he plays, he's a target and TD monster as he's close to impossible to cover given his size. His third round draft position makes him a bargain if he stays healthy, and a bust if he doesn't. Are you willing to risk missing the playoffs for a chance to win the whole thing?
Bust: Stevan Ridley, RB
Oh how the mighty have fallen. After being picked in the first or second rounds last year, Ridley struggled to pick up yards, but was excellent at giving the ball away. Coach Bill Belichick benched Ridley in favor of Brandon Bolden and LeGarrette Blount with Vereen injured. Ridley wound up with a pedestrian 773 yards and seven TDs. Even with Blount gone, I'm not sure how Ridley is going in the 6th/7th round. Rookie James White will push for between the tackles work and Vereen being healthy will limit Ridley's snaps. Ridley hardly ever catches the ball, so his value drops for PPR leagues. I would shy away from Ridley, as he's one fumble away from being benched for a game or more.
Sleeper: Shane Vereen, RB
For PPR, Vereen is a monster. Even though he missed eight games last year, he still racked up 47 catches. He's quick in space and is good after the catch as well. The WRs on this team might be more experienced, but still aren't the greatest bunch in the world. I think Vereen becomes the preferred target for Brady after Gronk. He does still carry value in standard leagues as he's likely to get you solid all purpose yardage numbers, but PPR is where he really shines. I would consider Vereen a RB1 in PPR leagues and a RB2/FLEX in standard leagues.
Bottom Line
The favorite once again to win the division, the Patriots have talent all over the field and should see their defensive unit move into the top five this year. The one warning I will give with the Pats is they, maybe more than anyone in the league, are extremely hard to predict fantasy wise. For example, you know the Saints are going to pass to win and a team like the Chiefs are going to run to win pretty much every game. The Pats, meanwhile, are happy running it 50 times one week and passing it 50 times the next if it means winning the game. It's great for their real life team, not so much for us fantasy owners. Just be sure to keep an eye on the rumblings throughout the week so you know if they will be pass heavy, run heavy, or balanced that week. Otherwise you might have started Danny Amendola, but Brady only throws it 12 times.
New York Jets
Studs: None
Bust: Any Jets RB
While the Jets added Chris Johnson in the offseason, I'm not so sure he's even the starter. Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell both had their moments last year, though neither has the impressive track record that Johnson has. Like any running back committee they will eat into each other's value. Johnson is probably the most valuable out of this group as he can run and catch, and can still burn people with his speed, though those situations are harder to come by nowadays. Joique Bell and Shane Vereen are going right after Johnson and I would rather have either of them. Ivory will probably be their between the tackles grinder but is far from being an elite talent.
Sleeper: Eric Decker, WR
I've said that Emmanuel Sanders is an upgrade from Decker in Denver (try saying that ten times fast), but that doesn't mean he carries no value. The Peyton Manning numbers are hard to compare to any team, so let's take a look at Decker's 2011. This was the Tebow year so footballs were hardly flying all over the place. Still, Decker averaged 13.9 yards per catch (more than he did in Manning's first season in Denver) and found the end zone eight times. Geno Smith and Michael Vick are both better passers than Tebow and Decker will now be the number one guy after playing behind Demaryius Thomas in Denver. The upside is limited because it's the Jets but his floor is safe. He's a big, strong WR who should lead this Jets team in targets by a significant margin.
Bottom Line
The Jets are the Jets. They want to win in the trenches and by playing great defense. Their games probably won't be that exciting but Rex Ryan could care less. I think Decker is the only one who carries nice value on this team offensively, while their defense should improve from their awful fantasy and real life season last year.
Matty O
Studs: CJ Spiller, RB
If Spiller were used correctly, he would probably have better numbers and less injuries. The new coaching staff in Buffalo seems intent on making Spiller a between the tackles runner, which doesn't suit his small stature. He does his best out in space where he is as dangerous as anyone. Last year he was nagged by a persistent ankle injury, but in 2012, he ran for 1,244 yards, 6 TDs, and caught 43 passes for an offensively challenged Buffalo team. His touches might be low, but he has the home run ability to take any carry or catch to the house in the blink of an eye. Due to his low volume with Fred Jackson around, he won't be the most consistent of all players. Still, health pending, he's a good bet to go over 1,000 yards rushing again with at least 40 catches. There's risk in drafting him, but is it any more risk than the RBs directly after him (Frank Gore, Andre Ellington, Trent Richardson)?
Bust: Sammy Watkins, WR
The highest WR taken in this year's draft, Watkins has decent size and speed for days. The problem is he's still a rookie and has an average at best QB throwing him the ball on a run first team. He'll likely get the opponent's top corner week in and week out and see defenses shading his way. Apart from being from Clemson, Watkins shares the big play ability that Spiller also has. In single coverage, Watkins is a good bet to beat his man with pure speed for a 50 or 60 yard bomb on any given play. Can EJ Manuel make the read and get him the ball is the important question. I say no, more often than not, as Watkins struggles to find consistency. I think there's one or two weeks where he goes off and everyone proclaims him as the second coming of Jerry Rice, but the other weeks he'll put up weak numbers in a weak aerial attack.
Sleeper: Fred Jackson, RB
Run, run, run. Even if Spiller is healthy, Jackson will get his. Jackson remains an ageless wonder, mainly due to the fact that he is able to run in a committee alongside Spiller, and now Bryce Brown. He is Buffalo's unquestioned goal line back and would get close to full time duties if Spiller were to go down. Jackson won't bust that big gain like Spiller, but he'll give you nice chunks that lead to a score. He's also quite adept in the passing game as well, securing at least 31 catches every year since his rookie season. He's a great bargain in the 8th round and needs to be owned by all Spiller owners as well.
Bottom Line
Lots of potential for this Buffalo squad, but I'm not sure they make it all gel. They're still looking for their franchise QB, and I doubt they have it in Manuel. The skill position players are there for this offense, but the ability to make all these parts click is not.
Miami Dolphins
Studs: None
The Dolphins actually have quite a few similarities to the Bills. They both have young QBs, backfield committees that limit their running backs' value, and a big name WR that will not reach their full potential on their respective squads.
Bust: Knowshon Moreno, RB
The Dolphins signed Moreno this summer, but Peyton Manning didn't come with him. That's an issue. Manning, as he's done with many RBs in the past, turned Moreno into an absolute superstar. He finished as the fifth best fantasy RB last year, while holding off the much hyped Montee Ball in the process. In Miami, however, he'll see more stacked boxes and Ryan Tannehill standing next to him instead of Manning. Prior to last year, Moreno hadn't played a full season since his 2009 rookie year, played only 15 games combined from 2011-12, never rushed for over 1,000 yards, and lost a fumble in every season prior to last. Whether it's injury or performance, I think Moreno takes a big jump back, enough to make him a non factor in fantasy this year. Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas, and Mike Gillislee will also be in the mix for touches as well.
Sleeper: Mike Wallace, WR
Believe it or not, Wallace actually set a career high in receptions last year in his first year with the Dolphins. His 930 yards were third best in his five year career, but his five TDs were the lowest. With someone as explosive as Wallace, you'd expect the yards and TDs to come once the receptions start racking up. He had an extremely disappointing debut with one catch for 15 yards, but played well down the stretch. While Tannehill might not make the best decisions, he does have the arm to get the ball down field to Wallace. Wallace is the unquestioned number one option in Miami and should continue to see plenty of looks. He also won't cost you as high of a pick like he did when he was in Pittsburgh.
Bottom Line
Much of the success of this offense centers around Tannehill's progress. He's improving, but far from being elite. Charles Clay turned into a nice safety valve for him last year and Moreno should at least be able to keep some of the other backs fresher. This team doesn't excite me fantasy wise in 2014, but they could have a few good players a couple years from now.
New England Patriots
Studs: Tom Brady, QB, Rob Gronkowski, TE (health pending)
Brady's 2013 was a rocky one. Without Gronk early on, Shane Vereen going down, and a bunch of rookie WRs, Brady struggled, as many QBs would. His consistency was better down the stretch, however, once more players got healthy and the rooks started to get it. 2014 looks much brighter. For starters, it looks like Brady will have Gronk much sooner than last year, if not by Week 1. Vereen, their best receiving back, is once again healthy. All the rookies have had a full season and another offseason to get better. They also got Brandon LaFell, a bigger, veteran WR for Brady on the outside. I think Brady easily gets back into the top 10, and maybe even pushes top five if Gronk stays healthy.
Health is the only thing that can hold Gronk back. If you were to turn injuries off like in a video game, the argument could be made for taking Gronk over Jimmy Graham. Alas, Gronk's injury problems are well documented as he has played a total of 18 games the last two years. Gronk's return was highly anticipated last year after he missed the first six weeks of the season. He came in, did work for a few weeks, then got injured again in Week 14 making his status for the start of this season uncertain. When he plays, he's a target and TD monster as he's close to impossible to cover given his size. His third round draft position makes him a bargain if he stays healthy, and a bust if he doesn't. Are you willing to risk missing the playoffs for a chance to win the whole thing?
Bust: Stevan Ridley, RB
Oh how the mighty have fallen. After being picked in the first or second rounds last year, Ridley struggled to pick up yards, but was excellent at giving the ball away. Coach Bill Belichick benched Ridley in favor of Brandon Bolden and LeGarrette Blount with Vereen injured. Ridley wound up with a pedestrian 773 yards and seven TDs. Even with Blount gone, I'm not sure how Ridley is going in the 6th/7th round. Rookie James White will push for between the tackles work and Vereen being healthy will limit Ridley's snaps. Ridley hardly ever catches the ball, so his value drops for PPR leagues. I would shy away from Ridley, as he's one fumble away from being benched for a game or more.
Sleeper: Shane Vereen, RB
For PPR, Vereen is a monster. Even though he missed eight games last year, he still racked up 47 catches. He's quick in space and is good after the catch as well. The WRs on this team might be more experienced, but still aren't the greatest bunch in the world. I think Vereen becomes the preferred target for Brady after Gronk. He does still carry value in standard leagues as he's likely to get you solid all purpose yardage numbers, but PPR is where he really shines. I would consider Vereen a RB1 in PPR leagues and a RB2/FLEX in standard leagues.
Bottom Line
The favorite once again to win the division, the Patriots have talent all over the field and should see their defensive unit move into the top five this year. The one warning I will give with the Pats is they, maybe more than anyone in the league, are extremely hard to predict fantasy wise. For example, you know the Saints are going to pass to win and a team like the Chiefs are going to run to win pretty much every game. The Pats, meanwhile, are happy running it 50 times one week and passing it 50 times the next if it means winning the game. It's great for their real life team, not so much for us fantasy owners. Just be sure to keep an eye on the rumblings throughout the week so you know if they will be pass heavy, run heavy, or balanced that week. Otherwise you might have started Danny Amendola, but Brady only throws it 12 times.
New York Jets
Studs: None
Bust: Any Jets RB
While the Jets added Chris Johnson in the offseason, I'm not so sure he's even the starter. Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell both had their moments last year, though neither has the impressive track record that Johnson has. Like any running back committee they will eat into each other's value. Johnson is probably the most valuable out of this group as he can run and catch, and can still burn people with his speed, though those situations are harder to come by nowadays. Joique Bell and Shane Vereen are going right after Johnson and I would rather have either of them. Ivory will probably be their between the tackles grinder but is far from being an elite talent.
Sleeper: Eric Decker, WR
I've said that Emmanuel Sanders is an upgrade from Decker in Denver (try saying that ten times fast), but that doesn't mean he carries no value. The Peyton Manning numbers are hard to compare to any team, so let's take a look at Decker's 2011. This was the Tebow year so footballs were hardly flying all over the place. Still, Decker averaged 13.9 yards per catch (more than he did in Manning's first season in Denver) and found the end zone eight times. Geno Smith and Michael Vick are both better passers than Tebow and Decker will now be the number one guy after playing behind Demaryius Thomas in Denver. The upside is limited because it's the Jets but his floor is safe. He's a big, strong WR who should lead this Jets team in targets by a significant margin.
Bottom Line
The Jets are the Jets. They want to win in the trenches and by playing great defense. Their games probably won't be that exciting but Rex Ryan could care less. I think Decker is the only one who carries nice value on this team offensively, while their defense should improve from their awful fantasy and real life season last year.
Matty O
Friday, August 15, 2014
2014 Fantasy Breakdown: NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Studs: Matt Ryan, QB, Julio Jones, WR
Injuries to the weapons around him along with terrible line play was the main reason Ryan had a down year. The good news is that he still threw for over 4500 yards and gets his best offensive weapon in Julio Jones back. In the four full games that Jones played last year, Ryan had three of his best fantasy performances all year. The loss of Tony Gonzalez certainly hurts, but while Jones was out last year, Harry Douglas proved to be a capable WR opposite Roddy White, and should continue to be effective as the third WR this year. Ryan won't give you huge, monster numbers on a regular basis, but won't give you many duds either. With practically no injury history, Ryan is a safe, consistent pick.
Julio's injury history is what might cause him to drop in drafts, but his pure athleticism is what might cause him to be reached for in drafts. He's only played one full season in three years and had to have a specially made cleat for him this offseason to try and help him with his foot pains. When he's on the field, however, he's easily one of the top five WRs in the NFL. He's fast, strong, tall, and plays in an offense where they like to throw the ball. Where and if you take him all depends on how you feel about his health. If he does play a full 16 games, you can pretty much guarantee a top eight, maybe top five season.
Bust: Steven Jackson, RB
I'll admit, I thought Jackson was going to come in and light it up for the Falcons. After putting up respectable fantasy numbers in St. Louis, it only made sense that he would put up elite numbers in an offense that made Michael Turner a highly sought after fantasy player. Instead, injury and overall ineptitude of Atlanta's offense caused him to put up his worst yardage and yards per carry average of his career. To his credit, he did have a couple nice games late in the year, but I doubt that carries over into this year. He's 31 and is no longer a three down workhorse like he was in St. Louis. Joique Bell, Shane Vereen, and Bishop Sankey are all going after him, and are all players I would rather have.
Sleeper: Roddy White, WR
Not too long ago, White was a no brainer WR1 in fantasy. While I don't think he reaches that level again, I do think he can be very helpful to a lot of owners this year. His rocky start last year was probably due to him not being at full health, but he cranked out some nice games once he was 100% (Week 13 & 16). When both are healthy, White is now technically behind Jones but given how much this team likes to pass and how awful their defense is, White should still get a good amount of looks. I could see him dropping in a good number of drafts since he's kind of been forgotten in the Julio Jones hype the past couple years. Take him if you get the chance.
Bottom Line
There will be plenty of shootouts this year when the Falcons are playing. Half of their games are in the comfort of the Georgia Dome and their defense is not so good. Mike Smith and the Falcons have no problem getting into shootouts with teams, which is great news for the options involved in the aerial attack for this team.
Carolina Panthers
Studs: Cam Newton, QB
Newton does not come worry free in 2014. He had offseason ankle surgery, has an average at best line, and has a completely new receiving corps. His passing yards have dropped since his rookie year as he wound up with 3,379 last year. While it's too harsh to expect him to finish under 3,000, he's certainly not going to even sniff Rodgers or Brees numbers. Thankfully for Cam, his rushing yards and TDs save his fantasy value. He still has TE Greg Olsen and rookie Kelvin Benjamin is one of the top three WRs from this year's draft. Despite all the changes, he'll still finish as a top eight fantasy QB.
Bust: Carolina RBs
I'm pretty sure this will be Carolina's bust selection until they break that backfield up. As it stands, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert are all on the roster and all have different roles for the team. Williams is the one most likely to break a long one, Stewart is the oft injured one who frustrates everyone when he goes in the game, and Tolbert is the one most likely to get the short TDs. Any one game, all three could cancel out each other's production, or one will go off while the other two do absolutely nothing. If you do wind up with one of these backs, prepare for a season full of headaches as you try to figure out when to start any one of them.
Sleeper: Greg Olsen, TE
Olsen may not have the hype of a Jordan Cameron, he may not have the athleticism of a Vernon Davis, but Olsen is a consistently solid TE who should match or better his past performances in 2014. After years of being, in my opinion, underutilized in Chicago, Olsen has been a great fit in Carolina the past three seasons with back to back seasons of triple digit targets. While some may think the absence of Steve Smith will put more defensive focus on Olsen, I don't think it will be too big of a deal given his size, hands, and route running. What the Smith departure will certainly do is give Olsen more targets. He's not a burner and, unfortunately, the Panthers love to run it in the red zone despite Olsen's size, but he'll still put up great numbers. He's going seventh right now, but I would predict that in a PPR league, he'll finish top four, maybe even top three pending Gronk and Julius Thomas' health.
Bottom Line
On offense, Carolina has got to rebuild. Once they are able to get rid of Williams and Stewart, then they can really start putting some good, young players around Cam. For 2014, however, it might be a bit of a grind. Their defense is still one of the best in the league and should win a fair share of games for them this year.
New Orleans Saints
Studs: Drew Brees, QB, Jimmy Graham, TE, Marques Colston, WR
Since arriving in New Orleans, Brees has been a blessing to both the Saints organization and fantasy football owners. Now entering his ninth season as a Saint, Brees will look to put up his fourth 5,000 yard season in a row this year. There's really not much to say about him, other than he's a lock to finish right behind Peyton Manning for fantasy points this year (sorry, Rodgers fans). The weapons are all around him with one of the most creative offensive play callers in the league. Trust in Breesus.
Graham is the most dangerous of all Brees' weapons. While there was a debate this offseason about whether or not he was a WR or TE, there is no debate that he is the number one fantasy TE, and is worthy of a first or second round pick (in PPR, he's a first round lock). He might present the most dangerous matchup problem in all the NFL and is moved and used in multiple formations. Brees can literally just throw it up for Graham in a crowd of corners and safeties, and there's a 90% chance that Graham will come away with the football. He's just as safe a Brees is.
Colston was looking like he lost a step early last year, but rebounded down the stretch. Colston showed up just in time for the fantasy playoffs, catching 22 passes for 280 yards and three TDs. He was nagged by injuries early on, so I expect him to carry over his end of the year performance into 2014. Prior to last year, he had put up four straight 1,000 yard seasons with no less than 106 targets during that time. He has always been they guy that won't get you any, "Good pick," remarks from your friends, but will still be a solid part of your fantasy thing. Upside is low, but his floor is high. Taking the number one WR in this offense shouldn't be too difficult.
Bust: Saints RBs
Similar to the Panthers, there are three backs that will likely get legitimate playing time in different roles. Pierre Thomas is the most likely to do well, and will probably be the main target on passing downs. Mark Ingram is the between the tackles, bowling ball back. Khiry Robinson has been hyped as the best out of all of them, but it seems as though the staff are bringing him along slowly. Just like in Carolina, I think they eat into each other's value, making each one of them a gamble to start each week. Thomas probably has the best chance to stand out given his pass catching ability and experience, but a rotation of backs is highly likely in the Big Easy.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills also fit the bill here, but let's check out this Saints defensive unit. After being fired by the Dallas Cowboys, Rob Ryan has completely transformed this Saints defense into a highly aggressive unit. They finished 11th in fantasy points last year and I'm predicting a top five finish by this unit this year. With the acquisition of Jairus Byrd, the Saints might just have the best safety duo in the league with Kenny Vaccaro on the other side. They're still going to give up yardage and points, but that's only part of what makes a good fantasy defense. Their ability to get turnovers will be big and Ryan will be preaching that over and over again. The noise of the Superdome is a significant advantage for this unit, and I expect to see a couple 20 pointers put up in New Orleans. Great bargain considering they're going 12th in drafts.
Bottom Line
The Saints should once again be playoff bound and possible Super Bowl contenders. The loss of Darren Sproles will not go unnoticed, but I think they've done enough to allow this offense to still flourish. They put up mind boggling stats whenever they're in the Dome, no matter who they play, which is just an added boost for this team. Be excited about any Saint you draft.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Studs: Vincent Jackson, WR
While V-Jax might have been more well known when Phillip Rivers was throwing him the ball in San Diego, he's actually found more success in the two years he's been in Tampa. He's gotten at least 147 targets and put up his two highest receiving totals of his career. The problem with Jackson, and what keeps him from being in the elite discussion, is that he has been inconsistent during his time with the Bucs. He had four games of 114+ yards, but also had five of 35 or less. He'll once again have a new QB throwing to him in Josh McCown and will have rookie Mike Evans opposite him, hopefully drawing away more coverage than targets. If you can deal with the peaks and valleys, Jackson is a solid WR2, borderline WR1.
Bust: Doug Martin, RB
While I warned against drafting him last year, I didn't think the reason he would fail would be because of injury. Alas, in Week 7 Martin suffered a season ending injury after being taken in the first round of a lot of fantasy drafts. What people forget is how, similar to Jackson, madly inconsistent Martin has been. His rookie year numbers were nice, but most of the damage and hype came from a four TD performance against the Raiders. In the five full games he played last year, Martin was given the workload but didn't deliver. He had 20+ carries in the first four games but only managed one TD and went over 100 yards one time. While he was injured, Bobby Rainey and Mike James flashed their own playmaking abilities. Even if he were guaranteed all the carries for the Bucs, I'm still not sure he would produce RB1 numbers. With Rainey and James lurking, I think Martin owners could be in for a disappointing year.
Sleeper: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE
ASJ probably won't get drafted, but he's definitely someone to keep an eye on, particularly if you have an injury prone player like Gronk as your starting TE. ASJ is 6'5", 262 lbs. and will probably be best utilized in the red zone. The Bucs seem to be trying to duplicate the size that McCown had to throw to last year, and Martellus Bennett wound up finishing 12th in fantasy points. I'm not saying ASJ finishes that high, but I'm willing to bet he makes a better than normal bye week fill in TE, and maybe even has a couple two or three TD games this year. His size should present problems for defenses, though the elite numbers might be a few years away.
Bottom Line
From the coaching staff to the QB, there's a lot of new faces in Tampa this year. Hopefully for fantasy owners, Lovie Smith doesn't hold back the explosive potential that this offense has. He will bring improved numbers to this defense though, as this unit has sleeper top five potential. They might start off slow with all the new pieces in place, but they should start clicking after the first few weeks.
Matty O
Studs: Matt Ryan, QB, Julio Jones, WR
Injuries to the weapons around him along with terrible line play was the main reason Ryan had a down year. The good news is that he still threw for over 4500 yards and gets his best offensive weapon in Julio Jones back. In the four full games that Jones played last year, Ryan had three of his best fantasy performances all year. The loss of Tony Gonzalez certainly hurts, but while Jones was out last year, Harry Douglas proved to be a capable WR opposite Roddy White, and should continue to be effective as the third WR this year. Ryan won't give you huge, monster numbers on a regular basis, but won't give you many duds either. With practically no injury history, Ryan is a safe, consistent pick.
Julio's injury history is what might cause him to drop in drafts, but his pure athleticism is what might cause him to be reached for in drafts. He's only played one full season in three years and had to have a specially made cleat for him this offseason to try and help him with his foot pains. When he's on the field, however, he's easily one of the top five WRs in the NFL. He's fast, strong, tall, and plays in an offense where they like to throw the ball. Where and if you take him all depends on how you feel about his health. If he does play a full 16 games, you can pretty much guarantee a top eight, maybe top five season.
Bust: Steven Jackson, RB
I'll admit, I thought Jackson was going to come in and light it up for the Falcons. After putting up respectable fantasy numbers in St. Louis, it only made sense that he would put up elite numbers in an offense that made Michael Turner a highly sought after fantasy player. Instead, injury and overall ineptitude of Atlanta's offense caused him to put up his worst yardage and yards per carry average of his career. To his credit, he did have a couple nice games late in the year, but I doubt that carries over into this year. He's 31 and is no longer a three down workhorse like he was in St. Louis. Joique Bell, Shane Vereen, and Bishop Sankey are all going after him, and are all players I would rather have.
Sleeper: Roddy White, WR
Not too long ago, White was a no brainer WR1 in fantasy. While I don't think he reaches that level again, I do think he can be very helpful to a lot of owners this year. His rocky start last year was probably due to him not being at full health, but he cranked out some nice games once he was 100% (Week 13 & 16). When both are healthy, White is now technically behind Jones but given how much this team likes to pass and how awful their defense is, White should still get a good amount of looks. I could see him dropping in a good number of drafts since he's kind of been forgotten in the Julio Jones hype the past couple years. Take him if you get the chance.
Bottom Line
There will be plenty of shootouts this year when the Falcons are playing. Half of their games are in the comfort of the Georgia Dome and their defense is not so good. Mike Smith and the Falcons have no problem getting into shootouts with teams, which is great news for the options involved in the aerial attack for this team.
Carolina Panthers
Studs: Cam Newton, QB
Newton does not come worry free in 2014. He had offseason ankle surgery, has an average at best line, and has a completely new receiving corps. His passing yards have dropped since his rookie year as he wound up with 3,379 last year. While it's too harsh to expect him to finish under 3,000, he's certainly not going to even sniff Rodgers or Brees numbers. Thankfully for Cam, his rushing yards and TDs save his fantasy value. He still has TE Greg Olsen and rookie Kelvin Benjamin is one of the top three WRs from this year's draft. Despite all the changes, he'll still finish as a top eight fantasy QB.
Bust: Carolina RBs
I'm pretty sure this will be Carolina's bust selection until they break that backfield up. As it stands, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert are all on the roster and all have different roles for the team. Williams is the one most likely to break a long one, Stewart is the oft injured one who frustrates everyone when he goes in the game, and Tolbert is the one most likely to get the short TDs. Any one game, all three could cancel out each other's production, or one will go off while the other two do absolutely nothing. If you do wind up with one of these backs, prepare for a season full of headaches as you try to figure out when to start any one of them.
Sleeper: Greg Olsen, TE
Olsen may not have the hype of a Jordan Cameron, he may not have the athleticism of a Vernon Davis, but Olsen is a consistently solid TE who should match or better his past performances in 2014. After years of being, in my opinion, underutilized in Chicago, Olsen has been a great fit in Carolina the past three seasons with back to back seasons of triple digit targets. While some may think the absence of Steve Smith will put more defensive focus on Olsen, I don't think it will be too big of a deal given his size, hands, and route running. What the Smith departure will certainly do is give Olsen more targets. He's not a burner and, unfortunately, the Panthers love to run it in the red zone despite Olsen's size, but he'll still put up great numbers. He's going seventh right now, but I would predict that in a PPR league, he'll finish top four, maybe even top three pending Gronk and Julius Thomas' health.
Bottom Line
On offense, Carolina has got to rebuild. Once they are able to get rid of Williams and Stewart, then they can really start putting some good, young players around Cam. For 2014, however, it might be a bit of a grind. Their defense is still one of the best in the league and should win a fair share of games for them this year.
New Orleans Saints
Studs: Drew Brees, QB, Jimmy Graham, TE, Marques Colston, WR
Since arriving in New Orleans, Brees has been a blessing to both the Saints organization and fantasy football owners. Now entering his ninth season as a Saint, Brees will look to put up his fourth 5,000 yard season in a row this year. There's really not much to say about him, other than he's a lock to finish right behind Peyton Manning for fantasy points this year (sorry, Rodgers fans). The weapons are all around him with one of the most creative offensive play callers in the league. Trust in Breesus.
Graham is the most dangerous of all Brees' weapons. While there was a debate this offseason about whether or not he was a WR or TE, there is no debate that he is the number one fantasy TE, and is worthy of a first or second round pick (in PPR, he's a first round lock). He might present the most dangerous matchup problem in all the NFL and is moved and used in multiple formations. Brees can literally just throw it up for Graham in a crowd of corners and safeties, and there's a 90% chance that Graham will come away with the football. He's just as safe a Brees is.
Colston was looking like he lost a step early last year, but rebounded down the stretch. Colston showed up just in time for the fantasy playoffs, catching 22 passes for 280 yards and three TDs. He was nagged by injuries early on, so I expect him to carry over his end of the year performance into 2014. Prior to last year, he had put up four straight 1,000 yard seasons with no less than 106 targets during that time. He has always been they guy that won't get you any, "Good pick," remarks from your friends, but will still be a solid part of your fantasy thing. Upside is low, but his floor is high. Taking the number one WR in this offense shouldn't be too difficult.
Bust: Saints RBs
Similar to the Panthers, there are three backs that will likely get legitimate playing time in different roles. Pierre Thomas is the most likely to do well, and will probably be the main target on passing downs. Mark Ingram is the between the tackles, bowling ball back. Khiry Robinson has been hyped as the best out of all of them, but it seems as though the staff are bringing him along slowly. Just like in Carolina, I think they eat into each other's value, making each one of them a gamble to start each week. Thomas probably has the best chance to stand out given his pass catching ability and experience, but a rotation of backs is highly likely in the Big Easy.
Sleeper: Defense/Special Teams
Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills also fit the bill here, but let's check out this Saints defensive unit. After being fired by the Dallas Cowboys, Rob Ryan has completely transformed this Saints defense into a highly aggressive unit. They finished 11th in fantasy points last year and I'm predicting a top five finish by this unit this year. With the acquisition of Jairus Byrd, the Saints might just have the best safety duo in the league with Kenny Vaccaro on the other side. They're still going to give up yardage and points, but that's only part of what makes a good fantasy defense. Their ability to get turnovers will be big and Ryan will be preaching that over and over again. The noise of the Superdome is a significant advantage for this unit, and I expect to see a couple 20 pointers put up in New Orleans. Great bargain considering they're going 12th in drafts.
Bottom Line
The Saints should once again be playoff bound and possible Super Bowl contenders. The loss of Darren Sproles will not go unnoticed, but I think they've done enough to allow this offense to still flourish. They put up mind boggling stats whenever they're in the Dome, no matter who they play, which is just an added boost for this team. Be excited about any Saint you draft.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Studs: Vincent Jackson, WR
While V-Jax might have been more well known when Phillip Rivers was throwing him the ball in San Diego, he's actually found more success in the two years he's been in Tampa. He's gotten at least 147 targets and put up his two highest receiving totals of his career. The problem with Jackson, and what keeps him from being in the elite discussion, is that he has been inconsistent during his time with the Bucs. He had four games of 114+ yards, but also had five of 35 or less. He'll once again have a new QB throwing to him in Josh McCown and will have rookie Mike Evans opposite him, hopefully drawing away more coverage than targets. If you can deal with the peaks and valleys, Jackson is a solid WR2, borderline WR1.
Bust: Doug Martin, RB
While I warned against drafting him last year, I didn't think the reason he would fail would be because of injury. Alas, in Week 7 Martin suffered a season ending injury after being taken in the first round of a lot of fantasy drafts. What people forget is how, similar to Jackson, madly inconsistent Martin has been. His rookie year numbers were nice, but most of the damage and hype came from a four TD performance against the Raiders. In the five full games he played last year, Martin was given the workload but didn't deliver. He had 20+ carries in the first four games but only managed one TD and went over 100 yards one time. While he was injured, Bobby Rainey and Mike James flashed their own playmaking abilities. Even if he were guaranteed all the carries for the Bucs, I'm still not sure he would produce RB1 numbers. With Rainey and James lurking, I think Martin owners could be in for a disappointing year.
Sleeper: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE
ASJ probably won't get drafted, but he's definitely someone to keep an eye on, particularly if you have an injury prone player like Gronk as your starting TE. ASJ is 6'5", 262 lbs. and will probably be best utilized in the red zone. The Bucs seem to be trying to duplicate the size that McCown had to throw to last year, and Martellus Bennett wound up finishing 12th in fantasy points. I'm not saying ASJ finishes that high, but I'm willing to bet he makes a better than normal bye week fill in TE, and maybe even has a couple two or three TD games this year. His size should present problems for defenses, though the elite numbers might be a few years away.
Bottom Line
From the coaching staff to the QB, there's a lot of new faces in Tampa this year. Hopefully for fantasy owners, Lovie Smith doesn't hold back the explosive potential that this offense has. He will bring improved numbers to this defense though, as this unit has sleeper top five potential. They might start off slow with all the new pieces in place, but they should start clicking after the first few weeks.
Matty O
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
2014 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC South
Houston Texans
Studs: Andre Johnson, WR, Arian Foster, RB
Everyone, including Johnson himself, wishes he was on a different team. After going through a mini-holdout where he tried to get the Texans to trade him to a Super Bowl contender, Johnson will once again line up as the top WR for the Texans. Despite playing with average QB talent on a run first team, Johnson continues to put up stellar numbers. He caught 109 balls for 1,407 yards and five TDs last year for the last place Texans. You'd like the TD numbers to be higher, but the Texans were putrid last year in every phase of the game. He'll once again have average QB talent throwing him the ball, but that doesn't seem to effect his numbers. He's getting up there in age, but I still think Johnson has two or three more good fantasy seasons left.
Spoiler alert, he'll be in the bust section as well but let's consider the good first when drafting Foster. Prior to an injury shortened 2013, he had three straight years of 1,200+ yards with at least 10 TDs. The Texans are still a run first team and Foster will probably be relied on to carry the load. The defense should be much improved from last year, allowing more offensive possessions and carries for Foster. He's also a talented back catching passes, boosting his value in PPR leagues. He'll still cost you a high pick, but it won't be in the top 5 like he used to be.
Bust: Foster, RB
The bust, or risk factor for Foster, is his injury history. Back in 2011, Foster suffered a hamstring injury which cost him three games. In 2013, he suffered a back injury in Week 9 and was out the rest of the year. His hamstring was aggravated once again this summer during training camp and he has just now gotten back with the team to continue practicing. Recurring hamstring injuries are not good news, particularly when they flare up this close to the start of the season. I doubt Foster will see any preseason time as the coaching staff will be very cautious with him. When he's on the field, the talent is certainly there, but the injury risk is off the charts. Draft him at your own peril.
Sleeper: Jonathan Grimes, RB
If you are going to take a chance on Foster, make sure your draft this dude. Grimes has emerged as the backup for Foster should he go down. While Grimes hasn't really done anything too impressive in his short NFL career, he did survive the RB cuts the Texans made as Andre Brown and Dennis Johnson were both kicked to the curb. Grimes is easily one of the top RB handcuffs this season.
Bottom Line
Not too much to get excited about here with the Texans. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can simply manage the game, then the offense might put up better numbers this year. The defense should be better, but I'm not ready to call them a viable option yet for fantasy purposes. Their front seven is great when Brian Cushing is healthy, but their secondary has loads of questions.
Indianapolis Colts
Studs: Andrew Luck, QB, Reggie Wayne, WR
2014 has a chance to be Luck's best year yet as a pro. In his rookie season, the yards were there, but he threw 18 interceptions. Last year, the yards dipped, but he also cut his interceptions in half. He still lagged behind the elite QBs in TDs as he only threw for 23 last year and his rookie year. This year, he has Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen back from injury, Coby Fleener is still there, and Hakeem Nicks is looking to bounce back. I think his yardage totals and TDs go up as he chases the elite QB numbers in a relatively weak division.
Considering Wayne hadn't missed a game since his rookie season (2001), I wouldn't be too worried about him coming back from an injury that cost him most of last year. Wayne could also go on the sleeper list considering teammate T.Y. Hilton is being taken ahead of him in drafts. Let's take a look back at Luck's rookie season when he had Wayne for a full 16 games. Wayne had a ridiculous 194 targets (most in his career) and 1,355 yards (second most in his career). By the way, Peyton Manning happened to be the QB Wayne used to catch balls from. Luck will continue to pepper Wayne with targets and he'll continue to post solid numbers, particularly in PPR. Wayne is easily the safest of the Colt's WRs.
Bust: Hilton, WR
Hilton will be the guy starting opposite Wayne. Hilton is one of those boom or bust guys, evidenced by his extremely up and down 2013. His ups were awesome as he posted 26 against Seattle and a 30 in Houston in Week 9. The rest of his games, to be quite honest, were pretty quiet. This included a stretch during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14, 15, and 16) where he put up yardage totals of 7, 78, and 52 with zero TDs in those three games. Maybe he does better as a number two WR and maybe Wayne has lost a step, but I think Hilton is being drafted far too high for how inconsistent he is. If you do draft him, I would advise selling him high after his first huge game.
Sleeper: Trent Richardson, RB
Some people might be rolling their eyes already, but call me a T-Rich believer. There's no denying that his 2013 was statistically awful, but he still has that big frame and can catch the ball surprisingly well for his size. He made the switch from Cleveland to Indy in the middle of the season (a trade I'm still confused by), so it's possible the transition period was simply too tough on him. Now he has a full off season with a healthy Colts' offense to try and learn the offense better. He's undoubtedly big enough to be their goal line bruiser, and TDs were what made him such a big fantasy hit in the first place (11 his rookie year in Cleveland). Richardson might be the player with the most split opinion this year, but I'm leaning more towards his rookie year production than his 2013 production.
Bottom Line
The Colts have the best team in this division by far. Luck, Hilton, and Richardson are all young players who might get even better this season. Wayne, and to a lesser extent Nicks, will give Luck options to throw to. The defense isn't anything impressive but that's not too much of a concern with the firepower they have on offense. I'm not saying this offense will be Peyton Manning-like when he was in Indy, but it'll be close.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Studs: None
Have you seen their roster?
Bust: Toby Gerhart, RB
Maybe he turns into the workhorse for this team, but I'm not buying it yet. Even if he does turn into the workhorse, I'm not sure he puts up the numbers necessary to warrant his fifth round selection. He's great for around the goal line, but it's fair to question how often the Jags will even wind up there this year. It also wouldn't surprise me if some kind of running back by committee develops with Gerhart, Jordan Todman, and Storm Johnson. This will be Gerhart's first full time starting gig after backing up Adrian Peterson, but I don't think he's the answer in the backfield for the Jags.
Sleeper: Blake Bortles, QB
This all hinges on if the Jags are serious about their whole "redshirting" of Bortles. Supposedly, they will make Bortles sit for an entire year, allowing Chad Henne to play the Jags into last place. If the front office ever wakes up, however, and puts Bortles in, I think he could have an outstanding rookie year even with the lack of weapons on the Jags. He's the best QB to be drafted in the past two years and the Jags were smart to take him so high. If the Jags allow him to play a full 16 games, I think he finishes in the top 12 for fantasy QBs. Pretty good for a guy that might go undrafted in your league.
Bottom Line
This team is all about the future. Like I said, if the redshirt thing is true, then the Jags will be a true contender for the number one overall pick this year. Unless Bortles emerges, I would stay away from anyone on this roster.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: None
The Titans and Jags are almost exactly alike. New RB situation, veteran QB preventing talented rookie from playing, skilled but inconsistent WRs, and bad defenses.
Bust: Any Titans WR
The three fantasy relevant ones on this roster are Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, and Nate Washington. Wright might be considered for PPR leagues, but he still only had two TDs last year on 94 receptions. Hunter probably has the most potential out of this group, but people were saying the same thing last year and he didn't perform. Washington has a good game here or there, but nothing to write home about. I don't think any of them excel and probably cancel out any significant numbers that any one of them might get. Hunter would probably be the one to own out of this group considering his ceiling is highest, but I wouldn't feel good about any of these guys.
Sleeper: Delanie Walker, TE
Again, I remind you to wait on TE if you can't grab Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, or Rob Gronkowski. After playing second fiddle to Vernon Davis for years in San Francisco, Walker finally got his chance at the full time starting job in Tennessee last year. He wound up with 60 catches, 571 yards, and six TDs. That was good for 12th among TEs last year for fantasy points, meaning he could be a starter in a 12 team league. Ken Whisenhunt comes over from the TE happy Chargers and I wouldn't be surprised if he brings some of that TE emphasis with him. Walker's not the biggest or fastest of all guys, but he can put up numbers if given the chance. I think he improves on his numbers from last year and moves up into the top 10 for TEs.
Bottom Line
Like the Jags, this team is all about the future. Bishop Sankey and Hunter might turn into early rounders in a couple years, but for now, it's best to look elsewhere for solid fantasy talent, though I think Sankey puts up decent numbers this year.
Matty O
Studs: Andre Johnson, WR, Arian Foster, RB
Everyone, including Johnson himself, wishes he was on a different team. After going through a mini-holdout where he tried to get the Texans to trade him to a Super Bowl contender, Johnson will once again line up as the top WR for the Texans. Despite playing with average QB talent on a run first team, Johnson continues to put up stellar numbers. He caught 109 balls for 1,407 yards and five TDs last year for the last place Texans. You'd like the TD numbers to be higher, but the Texans were putrid last year in every phase of the game. He'll once again have average QB talent throwing him the ball, but that doesn't seem to effect his numbers. He's getting up there in age, but I still think Johnson has two or three more good fantasy seasons left.
Spoiler alert, he'll be in the bust section as well but let's consider the good first when drafting Foster. Prior to an injury shortened 2013, he had three straight years of 1,200+ yards with at least 10 TDs. The Texans are still a run first team and Foster will probably be relied on to carry the load. The defense should be much improved from last year, allowing more offensive possessions and carries for Foster. He's also a talented back catching passes, boosting his value in PPR leagues. He'll still cost you a high pick, but it won't be in the top 5 like he used to be.
Bust: Foster, RB
The bust, or risk factor for Foster, is his injury history. Back in 2011, Foster suffered a hamstring injury which cost him three games. In 2013, he suffered a back injury in Week 9 and was out the rest of the year. His hamstring was aggravated once again this summer during training camp and he has just now gotten back with the team to continue practicing. Recurring hamstring injuries are not good news, particularly when they flare up this close to the start of the season. I doubt Foster will see any preseason time as the coaching staff will be very cautious with him. When he's on the field, the talent is certainly there, but the injury risk is off the charts. Draft him at your own peril.
Sleeper: Jonathan Grimes, RB
If you are going to take a chance on Foster, make sure your draft this dude. Grimes has emerged as the backup for Foster should he go down. While Grimes hasn't really done anything too impressive in his short NFL career, he did survive the RB cuts the Texans made as Andre Brown and Dennis Johnson were both kicked to the curb. Grimes is easily one of the top RB handcuffs this season.
Bottom Line
Not too much to get excited about here with the Texans. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can simply manage the game, then the offense might put up better numbers this year. The defense should be better, but I'm not ready to call them a viable option yet for fantasy purposes. Their front seven is great when Brian Cushing is healthy, but their secondary has loads of questions.
Indianapolis Colts
Studs: Andrew Luck, QB, Reggie Wayne, WR
2014 has a chance to be Luck's best year yet as a pro. In his rookie season, the yards were there, but he threw 18 interceptions. Last year, the yards dipped, but he also cut his interceptions in half. He still lagged behind the elite QBs in TDs as he only threw for 23 last year and his rookie year. This year, he has Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen back from injury, Coby Fleener is still there, and Hakeem Nicks is looking to bounce back. I think his yardage totals and TDs go up as he chases the elite QB numbers in a relatively weak division.
Considering Wayne hadn't missed a game since his rookie season (2001), I wouldn't be too worried about him coming back from an injury that cost him most of last year. Wayne could also go on the sleeper list considering teammate T.Y. Hilton is being taken ahead of him in drafts. Let's take a look back at Luck's rookie season when he had Wayne for a full 16 games. Wayne had a ridiculous 194 targets (most in his career) and 1,355 yards (second most in his career). By the way, Peyton Manning happened to be the QB Wayne used to catch balls from. Luck will continue to pepper Wayne with targets and he'll continue to post solid numbers, particularly in PPR. Wayne is easily the safest of the Colt's WRs.
Bust: Hilton, WR
Hilton will be the guy starting opposite Wayne. Hilton is one of those boom or bust guys, evidenced by his extremely up and down 2013. His ups were awesome as he posted 26 against Seattle and a 30 in Houston in Week 9. The rest of his games, to be quite honest, were pretty quiet. This included a stretch during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14, 15, and 16) where he put up yardage totals of 7, 78, and 52 with zero TDs in those three games. Maybe he does better as a number two WR and maybe Wayne has lost a step, but I think Hilton is being drafted far too high for how inconsistent he is. If you do draft him, I would advise selling him high after his first huge game.
Sleeper: Trent Richardson, RB
Some people might be rolling their eyes already, but call me a T-Rich believer. There's no denying that his 2013 was statistically awful, but he still has that big frame and can catch the ball surprisingly well for his size. He made the switch from Cleveland to Indy in the middle of the season (a trade I'm still confused by), so it's possible the transition period was simply too tough on him. Now he has a full off season with a healthy Colts' offense to try and learn the offense better. He's undoubtedly big enough to be their goal line bruiser, and TDs were what made him such a big fantasy hit in the first place (11 his rookie year in Cleveland). Richardson might be the player with the most split opinion this year, but I'm leaning more towards his rookie year production than his 2013 production.
Bottom Line
The Colts have the best team in this division by far. Luck, Hilton, and Richardson are all young players who might get even better this season. Wayne, and to a lesser extent Nicks, will give Luck options to throw to. The defense isn't anything impressive but that's not too much of a concern with the firepower they have on offense. I'm not saying this offense will be Peyton Manning-like when he was in Indy, but it'll be close.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Studs: None
Have you seen their roster?
Bust: Toby Gerhart, RB
Maybe he turns into the workhorse for this team, but I'm not buying it yet. Even if he does turn into the workhorse, I'm not sure he puts up the numbers necessary to warrant his fifth round selection. He's great for around the goal line, but it's fair to question how often the Jags will even wind up there this year. It also wouldn't surprise me if some kind of running back by committee develops with Gerhart, Jordan Todman, and Storm Johnson. This will be Gerhart's first full time starting gig after backing up Adrian Peterson, but I don't think he's the answer in the backfield for the Jags.
Sleeper: Blake Bortles, QB
This all hinges on if the Jags are serious about their whole "redshirting" of Bortles. Supposedly, they will make Bortles sit for an entire year, allowing Chad Henne to play the Jags into last place. If the front office ever wakes up, however, and puts Bortles in, I think he could have an outstanding rookie year even with the lack of weapons on the Jags. He's the best QB to be drafted in the past two years and the Jags were smart to take him so high. If the Jags allow him to play a full 16 games, I think he finishes in the top 12 for fantasy QBs. Pretty good for a guy that might go undrafted in your league.
Bottom Line
This team is all about the future. Like I said, if the redshirt thing is true, then the Jags will be a true contender for the number one overall pick this year. Unless Bortles emerges, I would stay away from anyone on this roster.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: None
The Titans and Jags are almost exactly alike. New RB situation, veteran QB preventing talented rookie from playing, skilled but inconsistent WRs, and bad defenses.
Bust: Any Titans WR
The three fantasy relevant ones on this roster are Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, and Nate Washington. Wright might be considered for PPR leagues, but he still only had two TDs last year on 94 receptions. Hunter probably has the most potential out of this group, but people were saying the same thing last year and he didn't perform. Washington has a good game here or there, but nothing to write home about. I don't think any of them excel and probably cancel out any significant numbers that any one of them might get. Hunter would probably be the one to own out of this group considering his ceiling is highest, but I wouldn't feel good about any of these guys.
Sleeper: Delanie Walker, TE
Again, I remind you to wait on TE if you can't grab Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, or Rob Gronkowski. After playing second fiddle to Vernon Davis for years in San Francisco, Walker finally got his chance at the full time starting job in Tennessee last year. He wound up with 60 catches, 571 yards, and six TDs. That was good for 12th among TEs last year for fantasy points, meaning he could be a starter in a 12 team league. Ken Whisenhunt comes over from the TE happy Chargers and I wouldn't be surprised if he brings some of that TE emphasis with him. Walker's not the biggest or fastest of all guys, but he can put up numbers if given the chance. I think he improves on his numbers from last year and moves up into the top 10 for TEs.
Bottom Line
Like the Jags, this team is all about the future. Bishop Sankey and Hunter might turn into early rounders in a couple years, but for now, it's best to look elsewhere for solid fantasy talent, though I think Sankey puts up decent numbers this year.
Matty O
Sunday, August 10, 2014
2014 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Studs: Ray Rice, RB
Down year in 2013 aside, Rice has always been one of the top backs taken, particularly in PPR with all the checkdowns and screens Joe Flacco throws. The difference is that this year he can be drafted for cheap. Rice is playing this preseason, but cannot play the first two weeks of the season so you should prepare for that if you are drafting him, intending to use him as a starter. If you're doing a standard league, then it's fair to be less optimistic about Rice, but he averaged 11.87 points per game last year in PPR, mainly due to his receptions. RB1 numbers will be hard to match, but you could do worse than picking Rice in the middle rounds.
Bust: Rice, RB
The above was the good, but there is a lot of risk with Rice here. As already mentioned, he's already two games of production behind anybody else. During that time, it's not out of the question that Bernard Pierce could establish himself as the go to guy, or at least turn the backfield into a frustrating timeshare. He's getting up there in age for running backs, and certainly up there in touches of the ball so perhaps last year was the start of his decline. The Baltimore offensive line is average, so without his quick cuts, he could be looking at another struggling season. He has a better chance this year to outplay his low draft position, but with already being two games behind, competing with an established backup, and running behind an okay line, it's possible Rice fades during this 2014 fantasy season.
Sleeper: Steve Smith, WR
Similar to Stevie Johnson, I like when productive number one WRs come over from one team to be the second or third option on their new team. Normally, the season why they're not the WR1 is because there are established players ahead of them. This doesn't mean, however, that their skills have diminished. It's truly amazing that Smith has been able to post seven 1,000 yard seasons with the numerous and poor quality QBs that have come through Carolina. Now he becomes a possession kind of guy as the likes of Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones make the deep plays. He has a low ceiling, but a low floor as well. Given that he's going in the 10th round or later, I think he makes for a nice pickup.
Bottom Line
The Ravens have a lot of uncertainty going into this year. Their backfield is unclear once Rice comes back. Flacco needs to improve on a down year last year. How will Dennis Pitta fare coming back from a season hampered by injury? Will this defense go back to being elite?
Cincinnati Bengals
Studs: AJ Green, WR
Green was a big reason, if not the reason, why Andy Dalton just got a huge contract extension. Green has turned into one of the top five receivers in the game, and should be drafted as such. He has no injury concerns, can kill a defense deep, and puts up great reception numbers for those PPR league people. He, along with Calvin Johnson and Demariyus Thomas are probably the safest WRs, and maybe safest players you can draft. Second rounder for standard, end of the first in a 12 team PPR.
Bust: Giovani Bernard, RB
This has nothing to do with his skill, but has a lot to do with one Jeremy Hill, who was drafted this past spring. Taken in the second round, Hill is sure to find some playing time this year in this offense. He's a between the tackles kind of guy who could become the Bengals' goal line back. Consider also that despite the hype and production of Bernard last year, BenJarvus Green-Ellis still saw 220 carries. Hill may get a similar workload, and BJGE is still on the roster so some touches could be in store for him as well. The good news for Gio is he will be the only one catching passes out of the backfield for this team, which could save his value in PPR. The upside is there, but he will have to do the most with the limited touches he receives.
Sleeper: Andy Dalton, QB
The Red Rocket just can't seem to get any love. Despite finishing fifth in fantasy this year, he's ranked outside the top 12, meaning he won't be any team's starter. Last year was his first 4,000+ yard season and his 33 TD passes were third most behind Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. He lit the world on fire last year from Weeks 6-8 as he threw for 1,034 yards and 11 TDs. His interceptions (20) could use to come down a bit, but I think he should be viewed more as a QB1 than a QB2. Drafting Dalton late will allow you to build depth for the rest of your team.
Bottom Line
The favorites of the division, the backfield situation will be one to keep a close eye on. Marvin Jones or Mohamed Sanu may emerge as a WR2. Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert are both great players, but since the Bengals actively use both, it's hard to determine production week from week. This defensive unit should be great once again.
Cleveland Browns
Studs: None
It's hard to find studs on this team because everyone is basically new and Josh Gordon is facing a season long suspension. Jordan Cameron is possible, but he tailed off last year and Norv Turner is gone.
Bust: Ben Tate, RB
Despite being a backup RB, Tate has been injured recently more often than not. It's very rare for a backup to be consistently struggling with injury. Now he starts Week 1 as the starting RB, which is bad news for his durability. Without Gordon, teams will undoubtedly stack the box, allowing Tate to be teed off on by linebackers and safeties. Draftee Terrance West has also gotten a lot of hype to take carries away from Tate, even if he stays healthy. In West's final year at Towson, he ran for 2,509 yards and got a ridiculous 41 TDs. I can't care who you play for or against, that's insane. Tate is going in the third which is far too high to risk a back like this.
Sleeper: Andrew Hawkins, WR
File this under the idea that someone has to catch the ball for this team. While we don't know for how long, it's safe to say that Gordon will miss some time this year. Hard to hype this guy beyond that. His best year was in 2012 when he caught 51 yards for 533 yards and four TDs. Not that impressive, though he was the third option on the Bengals at the time. He's a small guy (5'7") and will likely play out of the slot. He might find some value in PPR leagues as he will likely be assigned to running short, quick routes for easy throws from Dalton. Can't give him a ringing endorsement, but for those in 14 team PPR leagues, he may provide some value.
Bottom Line
There are so many new faces on this team that I really wouldn't be comfortable drafting any of them. I think West gives you the most upside, but he's an unproven rookie from a small school. Johnny Manziel will always be a hot debate to how he does, but I think he will struggle this year. There's a lack of skill players around him and his passing decision making will get him into trouble in 2014. The defense has improved and should finish in the top 10 if they can force more turnovers.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs: Antonio Brown, WR, Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Le'Veon Bell, RB
While he might not look as physically imposing as a Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant, Brown has quietly become one of the better WRs in the league. He runs every route in the book, has elite quickness, and can turn a five yard slant into a 70 yard TD. Emmanuel Sanders is now in Denver, opening up more catches and looks for Brown. He never had less than five catches last year and should be a PPR monster once again. He's a top five PPR WR and could easily finish in the top three.
Big Ben doesn't have the upside like Brown or Bell, but he is one of those reliable options that will get you what you expect more often than not. Around 4,000 yards, decent TD total, and average INT total is what Ben will give you. He's probably the best backup fantasy QB you can have, but you can justify him as a starter if you loaded up on skill positions earlier in your draft. Injury will always be a concern because of his tendency to hold onto the ball to make a play, but he's got the body to endure the hits. He's a great option given his draft position.
Once Bell got the start in Week 4, he never looked back. He churned out a nice rookie year with 860 yards and eight TDs. He also tacked on 45 receptions which was nice for those PPR-ers. Some might be concerned with LaGarrette Blount coming off a good year in New England to become Bell's backup. I wouldn't be too worried as Blount's opportunity only came because the Patriots' backfield was an absolute mess last year. Bell is the guy and should only cede carries when tired, and possibly in goal line situations, though Bell is large enough to handle that duty as well. His value is boosted in PPR leagues.
Bust: None
Have to go with none here simply because Brown and Bell are the only ones going high this year. I've already expressed my confidence in these two so a bust is hard to find in Pittsburgh.
Sleeper: Markus Wheaton, WR
The opportunity is here for the speedy second year man as Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery are gone, leaving the WR2 slot open to Wheaton. He didn't get a lot of experience last year as the WR corps was crowded, but should have plenty of chances to earn his way into two WR sets. He's not very big, but he's quick and fast which works in the Steelers short, quick pass offense. He could put up some nice reception totals depending on how the Steelers use him. This prediction is all about his upside as he did very little last year with very little opportunity.
Bottom Line
The Steelers will continue to use the quick, short pass offense to try and protect Big Ben from himself, forcing him to get the ball out early. Heath Miller might be a nice draft choice late at TE. While the Steelers defense would like to, and are building towards being better, I think they once again struggle as a fantasy defense.
Matty O
Studs: Ray Rice, RB
Down year in 2013 aside, Rice has always been one of the top backs taken, particularly in PPR with all the checkdowns and screens Joe Flacco throws. The difference is that this year he can be drafted for cheap. Rice is playing this preseason, but cannot play the first two weeks of the season so you should prepare for that if you are drafting him, intending to use him as a starter. If you're doing a standard league, then it's fair to be less optimistic about Rice, but he averaged 11.87 points per game last year in PPR, mainly due to his receptions. RB1 numbers will be hard to match, but you could do worse than picking Rice in the middle rounds.
Bust: Rice, RB
The above was the good, but there is a lot of risk with Rice here. As already mentioned, he's already two games of production behind anybody else. During that time, it's not out of the question that Bernard Pierce could establish himself as the go to guy, or at least turn the backfield into a frustrating timeshare. He's getting up there in age for running backs, and certainly up there in touches of the ball so perhaps last year was the start of his decline. The Baltimore offensive line is average, so without his quick cuts, he could be looking at another struggling season. He has a better chance this year to outplay his low draft position, but with already being two games behind, competing with an established backup, and running behind an okay line, it's possible Rice fades during this 2014 fantasy season.
Sleeper: Steve Smith, WR
Similar to Stevie Johnson, I like when productive number one WRs come over from one team to be the second or third option on their new team. Normally, the season why they're not the WR1 is because there are established players ahead of them. This doesn't mean, however, that their skills have diminished. It's truly amazing that Smith has been able to post seven 1,000 yard seasons with the numerous and poor quality QBs that have come through Carolina. Now he becomes a possession kind of guy as the likes of Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones make the deep plays. He has a low ceiling, but a low floor as well. Given that he's going in the 10th round or later, I think he makes for a nice pickup.
Bottom Line
The Ravens have a lot of uncertainty going into this year. Their backfield is unclear once Rice comes back. Flacco needs to improve on a down year last year. How will Dennis Pitta fare coming back from a season hampered by injury? Will this defense go back to being elite?
Cincinnati Bengals
Studs: AJ Green, WR
Green was a big reason, if not the reason, why Andy Dalton just got a huge contract extension. Green has turned into one of the top five receivers in the game, and should be drafted as such. He has no injury concerns, can kill a defense deep, and puts up great reception numbers for those PPR league people. He, along with Calvin Johnson and Demariyus Thomas are probably the safest WRs, and maybe safest players you can draft. Second rounder for standard, end of the first in a 12 team PPR.
Bust: Giovani Bernard, RB
This has nothing to do with his skill, but has a lot to do with one Jeremy Hill, who was drafted this past spring. Taken in the second round, Hill is sure to find some playing time this year in this offense. He's a between the tackles kind of guy who could become the Bengals' goal line back. Consider also that despite the hype and production of Bernard last year, BenJarvus Green-Ellis still saw 220 carries. Hill may get a similar workload, and BJGE is still on the roster so some touches could be in store for him as well. The good news for Gio is he will be the only one catching passes out of the backfield for this team, which could save his value in PPR. The upside is there, but he will have to do the most with the limited touches he receives.
Sleeper: Andy Dalton, QB
The Red Rocket just can't seem to get any love. Despite finishing fifth in fantasy this year, he's ranked outside the top 12, meaning he won't be any team's starter. Last year was his first 4,000+ yard season and his 33 TD passes were third most behind Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. He lit the world on fire last year from Weeks 6-8 as he threw for 1,034 yards and 11 TDs. His interceptions (20) could use to come down a bit, but I think he should be viewed more as a QB1 than a QB2. Drafting Dalton late will allow you to build depth for the rest of your team.
Bottom Line
The favorites of the division, the backfield situation will be one to keep a close eye on. Marvin Jones or Mohamed Sanu may emerge as a WR2. Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert are both great players, but since the Bengals actively use both, it's hard to determine production week from week. This defensive unit should be great once again.
Cleveland Browns
Studs: None
It's hard to find studs on this team because everyone is basically new and Josh Gordon is facing a season long suspension. Jordan Cameron is possible, but he tailed off last year and Norv Turner is gone.
Bust: Ben Tate, RB
Despite being a backup RB, Tate has been injured recently more often than not. It's very rare for a backup to be consistently struggling with injury. Now he starts Week 1 as the starting RB, which is bad news for his durability. Without Gordon, teams will undoubtedly stack the box, allowing Tate to be teed off on by linebackers and safeties. Draftee Terrance West has also gotten a lot of hype to take carries away from Tate, even if he stays healthy. In West's final year at Towson, he ran for 2,509 yards and got a ridiculous 41 TDs. I can't care who you play for or against, that's insane. Tate is going in the third which is far too high to risk a back like this.
Sleeper: Andrew Hawkins, WR
File this under the idea that someone has to catch the ball for this team. While we don't know for how long, it's safe to say that Gordon will miss some time this year. Hard to hype this guy beyond that. His best year was in 2012 when he caught 51 yards for 533 yards and four TDs. Not that impressive, though he was the third option on the Bengals at the time. He's a small guy (5'7") and will likely play out of the slot. He might find some value in PPR leagues as he will likely be assigned to running short, quick routes for easy throws from Dalton. Can't give him a ringing endorsement, but for those in 14 team PPR leagues, he may provide some value.
Bottom Line
There are so many new faces on this team that I really wouldn't be comfortable drafting any of them. I think West gives you the most upside, but he's an unproven rookie from a small school. Johnny Manziel will always be a hot debate to how he does, but I think he will struggle this year. There's a lack of skill players around him and his passing decision making will get him into trouble in 2014. The defense has improved and should finish in the top 10 if they can force more turnovers.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs: Antonio Brown, WR, Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Le'Veon Bell, RB
While he might not look as physically imposing as a Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant, Brown has quietly become one of the better WRs in the league. He runs every route in the book, has elite quickness, and can turn a five yard slant into a 70 yard TD. Emmanuel Sanders is now in Denver, opening up more catches and looks for Brown. He never had less than five catches last year and should be a PPR monster once again. He's a top five PPR WR and could easily finish in the top three.
Big Ben doesn't have the upside like Brown or Bell, but he is one of those reliable options that will get you what you expect more often than not. Around 4,000 yards, decent TD total, and average INT total is what Ben will give you. He's probably the best backup fantasy QB you can have, but you can justify him as a starter if you loaded up on skill positions earlier in your draft. Injury will always be a concern because of his tendency to hold onto the ball to make a play, but he's got the body to endure the hits. He's a great option given his draft position.
Once Bell got the start in Week 4, he never looked back. He churned out a nice rookie year with 860 yards and eight TDs. He also tacked on 45 receptions which was nice for those PPR-ers. Some might be concerned with LaGarrette Blount coming off a good year in New England to become Bell's backup. I wouldn't be too worried as Blount's opportunity only came because the Patriots' backfield was an absolute mess last year. Bell is the guy and should only cede carries when tired, and possibly in goal line situations, though Bell is large enough to handle that duty as well. His value is boosted in PPR leagues.
Bust: None
Have to go with none here simply because Brown and Bell are the only ones going high this year. I've already expressed my confidence in these two so a bust is hard to find in Pittsburgh.
Sleeper: Markus Wheaton, WR
The opportunity is here for the speedy second year man as Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery are gone, leaving the WR2 slot open to Wheaton. He didn't get a lot of experience last year as the WR corps was crowded, but should have plenty of chances to earn his way into two WR sets. He's not very big, but he's quick and fast which works in the Steelers short, quick pass offense. He could put up some nice reception totals depending on how the Steelers use him. This prediction is all about his upside as he did very little last year with very little opportunity.
Bottom Line
The Steelers will continue to use the quick, short pass offense to try and protect Big Ben from himself, forcing him to get the ball out early. Heath Miller might be a nice draft choice late at TE. While the Steelers defense would like to, and are building towards being better, I think they once again struggle as a fantasy defense.
Matty O
Thursday, August 7, 2014
2014 Fantasy Breakdown: NFC North
Chicago Bears
Studs: Brandon Marshall, WR, Alshon Jeffery, WR, Matt Forte, RB
After an injury plagued and mediocre rookie season, Jeffery exploded in his second year using his 6'3", 216 lb. frame to his advantage to rack up 1,421 yards and seven TDs in 2013. While his best game came when Josh McCown was under center (Week 13 @ Minnesota, 249 yards, 2 TDs), he still performed well when Cutler was there. Mark Trestman's system puts any QB in a position to succeed, while allowing both Marshall and Jeffery to get theirs. Marshall is the more consistent guy, particularly when Cutler is under center, but Jeffery has now established himself as a legitimate threat in this offense.
Forte, particularly in PPR, has to be considered one of the top three picks off the board along with Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. Heck, you could make an argument he should go one overall. 2014 provides even more optimism as he finally proved he could score TDs, which was something that held him back fantasy wise and made a guy like Michael Bush relevant. Those days are gone as he adds scoring ability with a runner who is a near lock for 1,000 yards and 50+ catches. He had his highest reception total of his career with Trestman in 2013 and will look to match or improve upon the 74 he hauled in last year. Draft him early with confidence.
Bust: Jeffery, WR
Maybe bust is the wrong word, but I don't think he'll play up to where he's being drafted. Jeffery is currently one of the top 10 WRs off the board and I think that's too high for him. I still think he'll have a decent year, but there's a few things to keep in mind here. For starters, he's the deep ball threat of the two wideouts which means he's more likely to win you a week, but also more likely to put up a dud. While he might have put up 20+ points three times last year, he also put up seven or less seven times last year. Compare that to Marshall who had three such games last year. Also, unlike last year, Jeffery is now a known weapon out wide so more defenses may put their top corner on him or shift the defense his way more rather than towards Marshall. Again, top 25, even top 20 numbers are probable, but top 10 numbers might be difficult to duplicate in 2014 with Cutler under center.
Sleeper: Cutler, QB
When looking at fantasy QBs, you could care less who they throw to. Thankfully for Cutler, he was Jeffery, Marshall, Forte, and Martellus Bennett to throw to. Cutler was thriving under Trestman's system prior to his injury throwing for 1,630 yards and 12 TDs. The interceptions also came with, but that's something that you have to take if you own Cutler. Similar to a Brett Favre or Tony Romo type QB, no system or any amount of weapons will change their gun slinging mentality. If you can live with the picks, then Cutler will make a nice addition to anyone's fantasy squad. Cutler is currently the 15th ranked QB, which is really low given the weapons around him. He's proven he can put up big numbers (see: 2008 in Denver, 2009 in Chicago) so it's fair to say he is poised for a big year. Given his draft position, you can load up at the other positions and still grab a great starting QB.
Bottom Line
Look for the passing game to once again explode in Chicago. The only significant concern is if Cutler goes down. They won the backup QB lottery last year as Josh McCown played out of his mind, but you certainly can't expect that every year. If Cutler goes, I think Marshall and Forte stay relevant, but Jeffery could drop off a cliff. Best to just pray that doesn't happen.
Detroit Lions
Studs: Calvin Johnson, WR, Matthew Stafford, QB
Johnson, aka Megatron, is the gold standard for WRs. He has size, speed, and chemistry with his QB, making him the consensus number one WR off the board for a few years now. Bothered by knee and finger injuries, including missing a game Week 5, Megatron still finished as the third best fantasy WR. He's a lock to finish top three and should be the first WR taken in all drafts. In a PPR setting, I could see him going as high as four once Forte, McCoy, and Charles are off the board. Last year I escaped the RB minefield that was the first round by taking Megatron and finishing first in the regular season of my PPR league. He's an extremely safe pick.
The guy throwing him the ball, Stafford, is a rich man's Cutler. He'll put up more yards and TDs, but he also has that reckless mentality and makes some throws that just make you cringe. If it weren't for his decision making, he could easily finish top three year in and year out, but his interception totals have been and will continue to be, high. The good news is the Lions, for the first time in a while, made a real effort to acquire more weapons than just Megatron. They got Golden Tate from Seattle and drafted Eric Ebron in the first round. He has the tools around him to turn in a top five season if he can clean up the turnovers.
Bust: Reggie Bush, RB, Sleeper: Joique Bell, RB
Explosiveness, big play ability, inconsistency, injury prone. These are all adjectives that can be used to describe Reggie Bush. Bush, one of the more dangerous players in open space, can quickly give owners headaches by putting up dud performances every other week, or being unavailable to play. I had him a couple years ago and you would literally hold your breath every time you saw him get hit in a game. The one saving grace that Bush has is his ability to catch the football. In PPR leagues, his value is boosted substantially due to the high volume of catches he brings in (54 in 14 games last year).
Unfortunately for Bush, his backup, Joique Bell performed very well when his number was called. Bell signed an extension this year and looks to be a larger part of this offense. Given Bush's injury history, I wouldn't be surprised. A running back committee will probably be established to start the year, but I could see Bell earning the job away from Bush by mid season. Bush will still break off some long ones, but Bell will see more playing time and have more opportunity to rack up points. Bell could be one of the best values this year.
Bottom Line
Even with new head coach Jim Caldwell, expect the Lions' passing attack to be one of the best in the NFL. There will probably be a three player rotation at tight end in Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew, and Joseph Fauria so it will be hard to determine a clear starter there. I like Ebron's potential, but it would take an injury to both Pettigrew and Fauria for him to make an impact this year.
Green Bay Packers
Studs: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Eddie Lacy, RB, Jordy Nelson, WR
Mr. Discount Double Check, Rodgers is back from an injury shortened season, looking to finish as one of the top three QBs in the league in 2014. A lot of the same weapons come back for him so I don't expect him to miss a beat. Lacy is now an established threat in the backfield, making it harder for defenses to simply defend the pass and not worry about the run. The fact that Rodgers came back to play at the end of last year should alleviate any concerns about his injury. Expect top three production out of Rodgers this year.
I did not see Lacy's fantastic rookie year coming. I thought he was alright in college and wasn't sure how his game would transition to the pros. Well, he ran for over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs, despite having Matt Flynn in charge as his QB. Probably the most surprising stat is the fact that Lacy managed to haul in 35 receptions last year, despite his big size. With Rodgers back, his receptions should only go up. Lacy also has the goal line back duties sewn up, which is rare seeing as how most teams have a designated goal line back nowadays. Lacy should go top 10 overall, and should improve upon his rookie campaign with a healthy Rodgers for all 16 games.
With the departure of Greg Jennings to Minnesota, Nelson stepped up in a big way last year finishing with 1,314 yards and 8 TDs. This was with some Flynn thrown in there and coming back from an injury shortened 2012 campaign. Nelson is a PPR monster, particularly when Rodgers is on the field. In their final division clinching win over the Bears last year, Nelson was targeted 16 times, hauling in 10 of those passes. Like everyone on this Packers team, Nelson's numbers should only improve with Rodgers back at full health. Nelson is a safe pick as the number one guy in this offense.
Bust: Randall Cobb, WR
Cobb became a fantasy sensation two years ago as he went for nearly 1,000 yards and caught eight TDs. He started off last year playing well the first two games, struggled for two games, then broke his leg in Week 6 in Baltimore. He's a talented enough player, but the boom or bust label is there when it comes to this guy, and his size (5'10", 192 lbs.) is a bit of a concern. He's not going to lead the team in targets week to week (see: Nelson) and is far from a red zone threat. His size makes me wonder if his injury last year was just a one time thing or the start of a recurring trend. Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, and Keenan Allen are all being taken after him; all of whom are safer, potentially better options.
Sleeper: Jarrett Boykin, WR
For those that played last year, you probably remember this name. Boykin, while inconsistent, had a smattering of nice games, most of them with backup Matt Flynn. With James Jones now in Oakland, Boykin is the clear number three WR behind Nelson and Cobb. While I don't think he sets the world on fire, he is being taken behind the likes of Hakeem Nicks, Dwayne Bowe, and Rueben Randle. He makes a nice FLEX play in PPR, and instantly becomes a WR2 if Cobb or Nelson were to go down.
Bottom Line
The Packers as a whole should be better this year. It's nothing short of miraculous that they won the NFC North last year given the injuries that they had. If Clay Matthews can stay healthy, this defense could become fantasy relevant once again. The passing game is safe to invest in here, as well as Lacy on the ground.
Minnesota Vikings
Studs: Adrian Peterson, RB
Peterson is similar to Megatron in that no matter what is going on around them (change in QB, change in coaching staff), you still expect them to put up great numbers. After a 2,000+ yard season in 2012, Peterson had a "down" year with 1,266 yards and 10 TDs in 14 games. He's one of the few backs that has the backfield to himself and is the centerpiece of this offense. While his yardage totals were down, he once again achieved double digit TDs, something he's done every year in the NFL (including his 12 game 2011 season). He did struggle a bit with injuries down the stretch last year, but I wouldn't be too worried about that. While he's no longer the consensus number one RB with players like Charles, McCoy, and Forte catching up, he's still one of the best in the league and should go in the top five or six picks overall.
Bust: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR
This is a case of hype outweighing the truth. Everyone fell in love with Patterson last year, mainly because of his explosiveness on special teams in the return game. His offensive stats were not impressive at all, however. He had one breakout game in Week 14 where he went for 141 yards and a TD. Apart from that though, very little was done. I do think he improves upon his offensive numbers in his second year as a pro, but him being taken ahead of proven guys like Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston is too high. Even taking him ahead of other high upside guys like Jeremy Maclin and Emmanuel Sanders, both of whom are on explosive offenses, is ill advised. If he falls to me, I'll take him, but I think he disappoints a lot of people in the fantasy community this year.
Sleeper: Kyle Rudolph, TE
Norv Turner. In truth, I could stop this segment right there. His recent success with tight ends is impressive. As the head coach of the Chargers from 2007-2012, Antonio Gates played his best football. As the offensive coordinator for the Browns last year, Jordan Cameron made everyone's sleeper prediction look good. Now he gets Rudolph, a 6'6", 259 lb. beast. Rudolph's less than impressive numbers have mainly been due to the fact that he's never really been a focus of their offense, and their QB situation has never really been stable. Regardless of who gets the QB start, I think Norv will make it a point to get Rudolph involved. He did have nine TDs in 2012 so his red zone threat has already been established. If Norv can get him more involved between the 20s, this could be a great year for Rudolph. He won't cost you a high draft pick either.
Bottom Line
The Vikings are clearly at the bottom of this division, but they're making progress. It will be interesting to see when, or if, the coaching staff allows rookie Teddy Bridgewater to take over the starting QB job. After years of Christian Ponder and now Matt Cassel, I think Bridgewater would be a welcome sight under center. He might even make a nice matchup start once the bye weeks start.
Matty O
Studs: Brandon Marshall, WR, Alshon Jeffery, WR, Matt Forte, RB
After an injury plagued and mediocre rookie season, Jeffery exploded in his second year using his 6'3", 216 lb. frame to his advantage to rack up 1,421 yards and seven TDs in 2013. While his best game came when Josh McCown was under center (Week 13 @ Minnesota, 249 yards, 2 TDs), he still performed well when Cutler was there. Mark Trestman's system puts any QB in a position to succeed, while allowing both Marshall and Jeffery to get theirs. Marshall is the more consistent guy, particularly when Cutler is under center, but Jeffery has now established himself as a legitimate threat in this offense.
Forte, particularly in PPR, has to be considered one of the top three picks off the board along with Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. Heck, you could make an argument he should go one overall. 2014 provides even more optimism as he finally proved he could score TDs, which was something that held him back fantasy wise and made a guy like Michael Bush relevant. Those days are gone as he adds scoring ability with a runner who is a near lock for 1,000 yards and 50+ catches. He had his highest reception total of his career with Trestman in 2013 and will look to match or improve upon the 74 he hauled in last year. Draft him early with confidence.
Bust: Jeffery, WR
Maybe bust is the wrong word, but I don't think he'll play up to where he's being drafted. Jeffery is currently one of the top 10 WRs off the board and I think that's too high for him. I still think he'll have a decent year, but there's a few things to keep in mind here. For starters, he's the deep ball threat of the two wideouts which means he's more likely to win you a week, but also more likely to put up a dud. While he might have put up 20+ points three times last year, he also put up seven or less seven times last year. Compare that to Marshall who had three such games last year. Also, unlike last year, Jeffery is now a known weapon out wide so more defenses may put their top corner on him or shift the defense his way more rather than towards Marshall. Again, top 25, even top 20 numbers are probable, but top 10 numbers might be difficult to duplicate in 2014 with Cutler under center.
Sleeper: Cutler, QB
When looking at fantasy QBs, you could care less who they throw to. Thankfully for Cutler, he was Jeffery, Marshall, Forte, and Martellus Bennett to throw to. Cutler was thriving under Trestman's system prior to his injury throwing for 1,630 yards and 12 TDs. The interceptions also came with, but that's something that you have to take if you own Cutler. Similar to a Brett Favre or Tony Romo type QB, no system or any amount of weapons will change their gun slinging mentality. If you can live with the picks, then Cutler will make a nice addition to anyone's fantasy squad. Cutler is currently the 15th ranked QB, which is really low given the weapons around him. He's proven he can put up big numbers (see: 2008 in Denver, 2009 in Chicago) so it's fair to say he is poised for a big year. Given his draft position, you can load up at the other positions and still grab a great starting QB.
Bottom Line
Look for the passing game to once again explode in Chicago. The only significant concern is if Cutler goes down. They won the backup QB lottery last year as Josh McCown played out of his mind, but you certainly can't expect that every year. If Cutler goes, I think Marshall and Forte stay relevant, but Jeffery could drop off a cliff. Best to just pray that doesn't happen.
Detroit Lions
Studs: Calvin Johnson, WR, Matthew Stafford, QB
Johnson, aka Megatron, is the gold standard for WRs. He has size, speed, and chemistry with his QB, making him the consensus number one WR off the board for a few years now. Bothered by knee and finger injuries, including missing a game Week 5, Megatron still finished as the third best fantasy WR. He's a lock to finish top three and should be the first WR taken in all drafts. In a PPR setting, I could see him going as high as four once Forte, McCoy, and Charles are off the board. Last year I escaped the RB minefield that was the first round by taking Megatron and finishing first in the regular season of my PPR league. He's an extremely safe pick.
The guy throwing him the ball, Stafford, is a rich man's Cutler. He'll put up more yards and TDs, but he also has that reckless mentality and makes some throws that just make you cringe. If it weren't for his decision making, he could easily finish top three year in and year out, but his interception totals have been and will continue to be, high. The good news is the Lions, for the first time in a while, made a real effort to acquire more weapons than just Megatron. They got Golden Tate from Seattle and drafted Eric Ebron in the first round. He has the tools around him to turn in a top five season if he can clean up the turnovers.
Bust: Reggie Bush, RB, Sleeper: Joique Bell, RB
Explosiveness, big play ability, inconsistency, injury prone. These are all adjectives that can be used to describe Reggie Bush. Bush, one of the more dangerous players in open space, can quickly give owners headaches by putting up dud performances every other week, or being unavailable to play. I had him a couple years ago and you would literally hold your breath every time you saw him get hit in a game. The one saving grace that Bush has is his ability to catch the football. In PPR leagues, his value is boosted substantially due to the high volume of catches he brings in (54 in 14 games last year).
Unfortunately for Bush, his backup, Joique Bell performed very well when his number was called. Bell signed an extension this year and looks to be a larger part of this offense. Given Bush's injury history, I wouldn't be surprised. A running back committee will probably be established to start the year, but I could see Bell earning the job away from Bush by mid season. Bush will still break off some long ones, but Bell will see more playing time and have more opportunity to rack up points. Bell could be one of the best values this year.
Bottom Line
Even with new head coach Jim Caldwell, expect the Lions' passing attack to be one of the best in the NFL. There will probably be a three player rotation at tight end in Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew, and Joseph Fauria so it will be hard to determine a clear starter there. I like Ebron's potential, but it would take an injury to both Pettigrew and Fauria for him to make an impact this year.
Green Bay Packers
Studs: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Eddie Lacy, RB, Jordy Nelson, WR
Mr. Discount Double Check, Rodgers is back from an injury shortened season, looking to finish as one of the top three QBs in the league in 2014. A lot of the same weapons come back for him so I don't expect him to miss a beat. Lacy is now an established threat in the backfield, making it harder for defenses to simply defend the pass and not worry about the run. The fact that Rodgers came back to play at the end of last year should alleviate any concerns about his injury. Expect top three production out of Rodgers this year.
I did not see Lacy's fantastic rookie year coming. I thought he was alright in college and wasn't sure how his game would transition to the pros. Well, he ran for over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs, despite having Matt Flynn in charge as his QB. Probably the most surprising stat is the fact that Lacy managed to haul in 35 receptions last year, despite his big size. With Rodgers back, his receptions should only go up. Lacy also has the goal line back duties sewn up, which is rare seeing as how most teams have a designated goal line back nowadays. Lacy should go top 10 overall, and should improve upon his rookie campaign with a healthy Rodgers for all 16 games.
With the departure of Greg Jennings to Minnesota, Nelson stepped up in a big way last year finishing with 1,314 yards and 8 TDs. This was with some Flynn thrown in there and coming back from an injury shortened 2012 campaign. Nelson is a PPR monster, particularly when Rodgers is on the field. In their final division clinching win over the Bears last year, Nelson was targeted 16 times, hauling in 10 of those passes. Like everyone on this Packers team, Nelson's numbers should only improve with Rodgers back at full health. Nelson is a safe pick as the number one guy in this offense.
Bust: Randall Cobb, WR
Cobb became a fantasy sensation two years ago as he went for nearly 1,000 yards and caught eight TDs. He started off last year playing well the first two games, struggled for two games, then broke his leg in Week 6 in Baltimore. He's a talented enough player, but the boom or bust label is there when it comes to this guy, and his size (5'10", 192 lbs.) is a bit of a concern. He's not going to lead the team in targets week to week (see: Nelson) and is far from a red zone threat. His size makes me wonder if his injury last year was just a one time thing or the start of a recurring trend. Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, and Keenan Allen are all being taken after him; all of whom are safer, potentially better options.
Sleeper: Jarrett Boykin, WR
For those that played last year, you probably remember this name. Boykin, while inconsistent, had a smattering of nice games, most of them with backup Matt Flynn. With James Jones now in Oakland, Boykin is the clear number three WR behind Nelson and Cobb. While I don't think he sets the world on fire, he is being taken behind the likes of Hakeem Nicks, Dwayne Bowe, and Rueben Randle. He makes a nice FLEX play in PPR, and instantly becomes a WR2 if Cobb or Nelson were to go down.
Bottom Line
The Packers as a whole should be better this year. It's nothing short of miraculous that they won the NFC North last year given the injuries that they had. If Clay Matthews can stay healthy, this defense could become fantasy relevant once again. The passing game is safe to invest in here, as well as Lacy on the ground.
Minnesota Vikings
Studs: Adrian Peterson, RB
Peterson is similar to Megatron in that no matter what is going on around them (change in QB, change in coaching staff), you still expect them to put up great numbers. After a 2,000+ yard season in 2012, Peterson had a "down" year with 1,266 yards and 10 TDs in 14 games. He's one of the few backs that has the backfield to himself and is the centerpiece of this offense. While his yardage totals were down, he once again achieved double digit TDs, something he's done every year in the NFL (including his 12 game 2011 season). He did struggle a bit with injuries down the stretch last year, but I wouldn't be too worried about that. While he's no longer the consensus number one RB with players like Charles, McCoy, and Forte catching up, he's still one of the best in the league and should go in the top five or six picks overall.
Bust: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR
This is a case of hype outweighing the truth. Everyone fell in love with Patterson last year, mainly because of his explosiveness on special teams in the return game. His offensive stats were not impressive at all, however. He had one breakout game in Week 14 where he went for 141 yards and a TD. Apart from that though, very little was done. I do think he improves upon his offensive numbers in his second year as a pro, but him being taken ahead of proven guys like Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston is too high. Even taking him ahead of other high upside guys like Jeremy Maclin and Emmanuel Sanders, both of whom are on explosive offenses, is ill advised. If he falls to me, I'll take him, but I think he disappoints a lot of people in the fantasy community this year.
Sleeper: Kyle Rudolph, TE
Norv Turner. In truth, I could stop this segment right there. His recent success with tight ends is impressive. As the head coach of the Chargers from 2007-2012, Antonio Gates played his best football. As the offensive coordinator for the Browns last year, Jordan Cameron made everyone's sleeper prediction look good. Now he gets Rudolph, a 6'6", 259 lb. beast. Rudolph's less than impressive numbers have mainly been due to the fact that he's never really been a focus of their offense, and their QB situation has never really been stable. Regardless of who gets the QB start, I think Norv will make it a point to get Rudolph involved. He did have nine TDs in 2012 so his red zone threat has already been established. If Norv can get him more involved between the 20s, this could be a great year for Rudolph. He won't cost you a high draft pick either.
Bottom Line
The Vikings are clearly at the bottom of this division, but they're making progress. It will be interesting to see when, or if, the coaching staff allows rookie Teddy Bridgewater to take over the starting QB job. After years of Christian Ponder and now Matt Cassel, I think Bridgewater would be a welcome sight under center. He might even make a nice matchup start once the bye weeks start.
Matty O
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
2014 Fantasy Breakdown: AFC West
Denver Broncos
Studs: Peyton Manning, QB, Demaryius Thomas, WR, Julius Thomas, TE
What else can be said about Manning? Even at his advanced age (38), he's still one of the best, if not the best, QB in the league today. He has everything going for him with a great offensive line, weapons all around him, and the freedom to put everyone in a position to succeed. To be honest, I thought he was going to struggle after leaving Indy and having neck surgery. So, of course he has the best regular season a QB has ever had last year, becoming one of the most valuable fantasy assets in recent memory. Even with all the weapons around him, it will be hard to repeat last season (they play the NFC West this year), but he should still put up the best fantasy numbers by any QB. He'll cost you a higher pick than last year, but he's one of the safer options to match or outperform his draft position.
Thomas has, surprisingly quietly, turned into one of the best WRs in the league. While he might not have the public reputation of a Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant, he puts up the stats that prove he's at least in the top five WRs in the game. Even with all the mouths to feed on the Broncos, you can bet that Thomas will be able to get his. He finished second last year in fantasy points, with only Josh Gordon beating him out. Despite this, he's still ranked behind Megatron and I could see people being tempted to take someone like Dez, Julio Jones, or AJ Green ahead of Thomas. I would still probably take Megatron based on his track record, but would definitely take Thomas number two. He should have another great season.
Yes, the sample size is small, but J. Thomas is in the same mold of these big, physical, athletic tight ends (Jimmy Graham, Gronk), that have taken over the league as of late. Given his build and place in this offense, I think it's fair to expect great production going forward. J. Thomas, thanks to the potent WRs on the outside, will almost always have favorable matchups particularly in the middle of the field. He's money in the red zone, finishing with 12 TDs last year, third only to Vernon Davis and Graham among tight ends. He missed two games during the middle of the year last year, but finished perfectly fine. While he has room to improve, I still don't think he touches Graham or a healthy Gronk's numbers, but should settle in as the number two or three TE for fantasy this year.
Bust: Montee Ball, RB
I've been going back and forth on Ball, and it's certainly possible he could have a good year (just look at Peyton's history with running backs), but I don't trust him as a top 15 back, which is where he's being drafted currently. He finished the year strong, but had a case of fumble-itis early on. The main reason he didn't see as much playing time as he should have was his poor pass protection, which is fairly important when your franchise QB is 38 and not the most fleet of foot. Moreno might be gone, but that doesn't automatically make him a better pass blocker. If he doesn't perform in that area, the coaching staff won't hesitate to pull back his snaps. Heck, he couldn't start over Knowshon Moreno last year who was pretty much a bust prior to 2013. The opportunity is there for Ball, given the explosiveness of this offense, but there are concerns.
Sleeper: Cody Latimer, WR
Emmanuel Sanders would also fit this label, but let me use this space to hype up Latimer. Latimer is likely unknown due to the college team he played for (Indiana), but this guy is the real deal. Latimer is another big, strong WR (6'2", 215 lbs.) that will probably see limited snaps to start the year, but hopefully gets more responsibility later on in the year. Wes Welker has not exactly been a picture of health lately, so an injury there could open up room for Latimer in three WR sets. Latimer finished third in the Big Ten last year for receiving yards, topping 1,000 yards and racking up nine TDs. This sleeper prediction might be a year too soon, but if something happens to either Welker, D. Thomas, or Sanders, Latimer will be a hot commodity.
Bottom Line
Picking anyone in this offense is probably a good pick. I might be down on Ball, but like I said, the opportunity is there and it's possible he turns in a top 15 season. On the defensive side of the ball, you have to be excited about all the new acquisitions they made. They had their moments last year, but finished middle of the pack fantasy wise. I think they turn that around and are a safe bet to wind up as a top 10 fantasy defense.
Kansas City Chiefs
Studs: Jamaal Charles, RB
Fantasy MVP from last year, Charles showed explosiveness throughout the year. As an added bonus, especially for those PPR people, he racked up 70 receptions as he became quite the security blanket for game manager Alex Smith. He is the center piece of their entire offense, which is extremely rare to say about a RB in this day and age. Knile Davis, the RB behind him, showed flashes of what he can do, but Charles should be able to keep that hype at bay for 2014. Charles will most likely be one of the first three picks in any draft, and deservedly so.
Bust: Defense/Special Teams
This unit came out of nowhere last year to finish as the top fantasy defense. Unfortunately, I don't think they stay there and even drop out of the top 15. For starters, they lost their top corner in Brandon Flowers to division rival San Diego. They scored a ridiculous 11 TDs, which will be extremely hard to repeat no matter the defense. They also put up some absolute duds down the stretch last year. They put in great performances in Weeks 14 and 15 against Washington and Oakland, but Washington had pretty much given up at that point and Oakland is hardly scary on offense. Around those performances, they put up -1 (Denver), -7 (San Diego), 1 (Denver), 0 (Indianapolis), 2 (San Diego). Ouch. And don't even bring up the disaster that was their playoff game. Oakland's offense should be better this year and Denver and San Diego will do what they do. I think the drop off could be extreme for this unit. I don't say this about many units coming off a big year, but I wouldn't even draft these guys.
Sleeper: De'Anthony Thomas, RB
I'm trying to avoid putting none in categories like I did last year, so I'll go with the highest upside guy on this team. While I don't truly see any real sleepers on this team, I could see Thomas going off in one or two games this year. He'll be one of the smaller guys on the field, but he is crazy fast and can break off a big one at any time. He's listed as a RB, but will more likely be used as a pass catcher than a runner. Screens and short passes with the hope of yards after catch is what you're hoping for with Thomas. He'll definitely see time as a returner for this team, but his offensive snaps will be limited. Look for a couple Tavon Austin-like performances from last year, where Thomas maybe gets only three or four touches, but turns them into long gains and TDs.
Bottom Line
As you can tell, I don't have a lot of optimism when it comes to this Chiefs team. Charles will still put up numbers, but there's little to be excited about beyond him. Surprisingly, they chose not to aggressively draft anything to help out the offensive side of the ball. That costs them this year.
Oakland Raiders
Studs: None
I know I said I didn't want to put none in these categories, but who would you put here? Maurice Jones-Drew is the only one who comes close, but his recent seasons haven't been anything close to great.
Bust: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB
His recent seasons haven't been great and I don't think this one will be either. Even at a lower than normal draft position for him, I still don't think he's worth it. His best days are behind him, and he should concede carries to Darren McFadden and Latavius Murphy. MJD might become Oakland's goal line back, though you have to wonder how many chances he'll get down there. He'll be a decent FLEX fill in during bye weeks, and possibly even trade bait given the reputation of his name. Still, I would wait until late until considering him.
Sleeper: James Jones, WR
Here's hoping for the 2012 Jones, not the 2013 Jones. In 2012, with Jordy Nelson missing time due to injury, Jones posted 784 yards and a surprising 14 TDs for the Packers. Obviously there is a significant downgrade at QB, but I could see Jones making noise this year. The Raiders will be trailing in a lot of games and Jones may avoid the other team's top corner as they put him on either Denarius Moore or Rod Streater. I certainly don't have a lot of confidence in this choice, but someone has to catch the ball for the Raiders. Limited upside here, but could develop into the clear number one receiver for the Raiders.
Bottom Line
Lots of questions here for the Raiders. Who will be the starting QB? What will the WR depth chart look like? How will carries be split, if at all? Too many questions to feel safe about drafting anyone on this team. Someone could emerge from the backfield so that will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the start of the season. While I wish no ill will on anyone, if McFadden or MJD were to get injured before the season started, that would certainly boost the other one's stock.
San Diego Chargers
Studs: Phillip Rivers, QB, Keenan Allen, WR
After an atrocious 2012, Rivers bounced under new coach Mike McCoy in 2013 to finish 6th in fantasy points last year. Now in his second season with McCoy, I expect Rivers to maintain that level of success, if not eclipse that. He has great skill players around him and, as long as he takes care of the ball, should return to top 10 status this year at QB. He'll still make some head scratching decisions at times, but look for a more consistent Rivers in 2014.
Allen is one reason why Rivers will maintain his high ranking. Allen eclipsed 1,000 yards and scored eight TDs as a rookie last year, despite doing next to nothing the first three games of the season (in fact, he wound up with one reception for negative four yards in Week 3 in Tennessee). He rebounded in a big way to become Rivers' favorite target down the stretch, and a big reason why the Chargers rallied to make the playoffs last year. Similar to J. Thomas of the Broncos, the sample size is indeed small, but given the system and the way Allen plays, he should be okay. Unlike Rivers' former favorite WR, Vincent Jackson, Allen is more of a possession, yards after catch guy rather than the downfield big play WR. He racks up plenty of targets and has even more value in PPR leagues. Draft him with confidence.
Bust: Ryan Mathews, RB
16 games played by Mathews. That might have been the most surprising stat in the NFL last year. After being hyped coming out of Fresno State in the draft, Mathews has failed to live up to his potential due to his constant injury concerns. 12, 14, and 12 were his games played numbers before last year. To his credit, when he's healthy, he truly is a good RB. He proved it last year as he finished with 1,255 yards and seven total TDs, despite sharing time with Danny Woodhead. I just don't trust him not getting injured again. The timeshare with Woodhead is also a concern as Woodhead actually finished with more total TDs (eight), then Mathews last year. PPR league people might even take Woodhead above Mathews. If you do feel the need to draft him, it is an absolute must that you also draft Woodhead, and possibly even Donald Brown.
Sleeper: Ladarius Green, TE
Aka, the second coming of Antonio Gates. Green is 6'6", 240 lbs., and is faster and more athletic than Gates at this point in their careers. Gates is still there and will probably start the year listed as the "first" tight end. Prior to last year, however, Gates was showing signs of wearing down (10 games played in 2010, 13 in 2011, 15 in 2012). He's certainly lost a step and I think Green becomes the guy to stretch the field. San Diego might run a lot of two TE sets this year with the receivers behind Allen being less than impressive. The prediction for Green's coronation might be a year too early, but his upside is ridiculous. If he's given the opportunity, Green could be one of the best value picks in 2014.
Bottom Line
San Diego made strides last year under McCoy, particularly towards the end of the year, and I think they bring that momentum into this year. Someone from the backfield will have a good game each week, but good luck figuring out who. Allen is safe and, while Green is the up and comer, Gates should still see his share of red zone looks. The opportunity is there for someone to snag that WR2 spot, but I don't think anyone makes considerable fantasy noise from that position.
Matty O
Thomas has, surprisingly quietly, turned into one of the best WRs in the league. While he might not have the public reputation of a Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant, he puts up the stats that prove he's at least in the top five WRs in the game. Even with all the mouths to feed on the Broncos, you can bet that Thomas will be able to get his. He finished second last year in fantasy points, with only Josh Gordon beating him out. Despite this, he's still ranked behind Megatron and I could see people being tempted to take someone like Dez, Julio Jones, or AJ Green ahead of Thomas. I would still probably take Megatron based on his track record, but would definitely take Thomas number two. He should have another great season.
Yes, the sample size is small, but J. Thomas is in the same mold of these big, physical, athletic tight ends (Jimmy Graham, Gronk), that have taken over the league as of late. Given his build and place in this offense, I think it's fair to expect great production going forward. J. Thomas, thanks to the potent WRs on the outside, will almost always have favorable matchups particularly in the middle of the field. He's money in the red zone, finishing with 12 TDs last year, third only to Vernon Davis and Graham among tight ends. He missed two games during the middle of the year last year, but finished perfectly fine. While he has room to improve, I still don't think he touches Graham or a healthy Gronk's numbers, but should settle in as the number two or three TE for fantasy this year.
Bust: Montee Ball, RB
I've been going back and forth on Ball, and it's certainly possible he could have a good year (just look at Peyton's history with running backs), but I don't trust him as a top 15 back, which is where he's being drafted currently. He finished the year strong, but had a case of fumble-itis early on. The main reason he didn't see as much playing time as he should have was his poor pass protection, which is fairly important when your franchise QB is 38 and not the most fleet of foot. Moreno might be gone, but that doesn't automatically make him a better pass blocker. If he doesn't perform in that area, the coaching staff won't hesitate to pull back his snaps. Heck, he couldn't start over Knowshon Moreno last year who was pretty much a bust prior to 2013. The opportunity is there for Ball, given the explosiveness of this offense, but there are concerns.
Sleeper: Cody Latimer, WR
Emmanuel Sanders would also fit this label, but let me use this space to hype up Latimer. Latimer is likely unknown due to the college team he played for (Indiana), but this guy is the real deal. Latimer is another big, strong WR (6'2", 215 lbs.) that will probably see limited snaps to start the year, but hopefully gets more responsibility later on in the year. Wes Welker has not exactly been a picture of health lately, so an injury there could open up room for Latimer in three WR sets. Latimer finished third in the Big Ten last year for receiving yards, topping 1,000 yards and racking up nine TDs. This sleeper prediction might be a year too soon, but if something happens to either Welker, D. Thomas, or Sanders, Latimer will be a hot commodity.
Bottom Line
Picking anyone in this offense is probably a good pick. I might be down on Ball, but like I said, the opportunity is there and it's possible he turns in a top 15 season. On the defensive side of the ball, you have to be excited about all the new acquisitions they made. They had their moments last year, but finished middle of the pack fantasy wise. I think they turn that around and are a safe bet to wind up as a top 10 fantasy defense.
Kansas City Chiefs
Studs: Jamaal Charles, RB
Fantasy MVP from last year, Charles showed explosiveness throughout the year. As an added bonus, especially for those PPR people, he racked up 70 receptions as he became quite the security blanket for game manager Alex Smith. He is the center piece of their entire offense, which is extremely rare to say about a RB in this day and age. Knile Davis, the RB behind him, showed flashes of what he can do, but Charles should be able to keep that hype at bay for 2014. Charles will most likely be one of the first three picks in any draft, and deservedly so.
Bust: Defense/Special Teams
This unit came out of nowhere last year to finish as the top fantasy defense. Unfortunately, I don't think they stay there and even drop out of the top 15. For starters, they lost their top corner in Brandon Flowers to division rival San Diego. They scored a ridiculous 11 TDs, which will be extremely hard to repeat no matter the defense. They also put up some absolute duds down the stretch last year. They put in great performances in Weeks 14 and 15 against Washington and Oakland, but Washington had pretty much given up at that point and Oakland is hardly scary on offense. Around those performances, they put up -1 (Denver), -7 (San Diego), 1 (Denver), 0 (Indianapolis), 2 (San Diego). Ouch. And don't even bring up the disaster that was their playoff game. Oakland's offense should be better this year and Denver and San Diego will do what they do. I think the drop off could be extreme for this unit. I don't say this about many units coming off a big year, but I wouldn't even draft these guys.
Sleeper: De'Anthony Thomas, RB
I'm trying to avoid putting none in categories like I did last year, so I'll go with the highest upside guy on this team. While I don't truly see any real sleepers on this team, I could see Thomas going off in one or two games this year. He'll be one of the smaller guys on the field, but he is crazy fast and can break off a big one at any time. He's listed as a RB, but will more likely be used as a pass catcher than a runner. Screens and short passes with the hope of yards after catch is what you're hoping for with Thomas. He'll definitely see time as a returner for this team, but his offensive snaps will be limited. Look for a couple Tavon Austin-like performances from last year, where Thomas maybe gets only three or four touches, but turns them into long gains and TDs.
Bottom Line
As you can tell, I don't have a lot of optimism when it comes to this Chiefs team. Charles will still put up numbers, but there's little to be excited about beyond him. Surprisingly, they chose not to aggressively draft anything to help out the offensive side of the ball. That costs them this year.
Oakland Raiders
Studs: None
I know I said I didn't want to put none in these categories, but who would you put here? Maurice Jones-Drew is the only one who comes close, but his recent seasons haven't been anything close to great.
Bust: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB
His recent seasons haven't been great and I don't think this one will be either. Even at a lower than normal draft position for him, I still don't think he's worth it. His best days are behind him, and he should concede carries to Darren McFadden and Latavius Murphy. MJD might become Oakland's goal line back, though you have to wonder how many chances he'll get down there. He'll be a decent FLEX fill in during bye weeks, and possibly even trade bait given the reputation of his name. Still, I would wait until late until considering him.
Sleeper: James Jones, WR
Here's hoping for the 2012 Jones, not the 2013 Jones. In 2012, with Jordy Nelson missing time due to injury, Jones posted 784 yards and a surprising 14 TDs for the Packers. Obviously there is a significant downgrade at QB, but I could see Jones making noise this year. The Raiders will be trailing in a lot of games and Jones may avoid the other team's top corner as they put him on either Denarius Moore or Rod Streater. I certainly don't have a lot of confidence in this choice, but someone has to catch the ball for the Raiders. Limited upside here, but could develop into the clear number one receiver for the Raiders.
Bottom Line
Lots of questions here for the Raiders. Who will be the starting QB? What will the WR depth chart look like? How will carries be split, if at all? Too many questions to feel safe about drafting anyone on this team. Someone could emerge from the backfield so that will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the start of the season. While I wish no ill will on anyone, if McFadden or MJD were to get injured before the season started, that would certainly boost the other one's stock.
San Diego Chargers
Studs: Phillip Rivers, QB, Keenan Allen, WR
After an atrocious 2012, Rivers bounced under new coach Mike McCoy in 2013 to finish 6th in fantasy points last year. Now in his second season with McCoy, I expect Rivers to maintain that level of success, if not eclipse that. He has great skill players around him and, as long as he takes care of the ball, should return to top 10 status this year at QB. He'll still make some head scratching decisions at times, but look for a more consistent Rivers in 2014.
Allen is one reason why Rivers will maintain his high ranking. Allen eclipsed 1,000 yards and scored eight TDs as a rookie last year, despite doing next to nothing the first three games of the season (in fact, he wound up with one reception for negative four yards in Week 3 in Tennessee). He rebounded in a big way to become Rivers' favorite target down the stretch, and a big reason why the Chargers rallied to make the playoffs last year. Similar to J. Thomas of the Broncos, the sample size is indeed small, but given the system and the way Allen plays, he should be okay. Unlike Rivers' former favorite WR, Vincent Jackson, Allen is more of a possession, yards after catch guy rather than the downfield big play WR. He racks up plenty of targets and has even more value in PPR leagues. Draft him with confidence.
Bust: Ryan Mathews, RB
16 games played by Mathews. That might have been the most surprising stat in the NFL last year. After being hyped coming out of Fresno State in the draft, Mathews has failed to live up to his potential due to his constant injury concerns. 12, 14, and 12 were his games played numbers before last year. To his credit, when he's healthy, he truly is a good RB. He proved it last year as he finished with 1,255 yards and seven total TDs, despite sharing time with Danny Woodhead. I just don't trust him not getting injured again. The timeshare with Woodhead is also a concern as Woodhead actually finished with more total TDs (eight), then Mathews last year. PPR league people might even take Woodhead above Mathews. If you do feel the need to draft him, it is an absolute must that you also draft Woodhead, and possibly even Donald Brown.
Sleeper: Ladarius Green, TE
Aka, the second coming of Antonio Gates. Green is 6'6", 240 lbs., and is faster and more athletic than Gates at this point in their careers. Gates is still there and will probably start the year listed as the "first" tight end. Prior to last year, however, Gates was showing signs of wearing down (10 games played in 2010, 13 in 2011, 15 in 2012). He's certainly lost a step and I think Green becomes the guy to stretch the field. San Diego might run a lot of two TE sets this year with the receivers behind Allen being less than impressive. The prediction for Green's coronation might be a year too early, but his upside is ridiculous. If he's given the opportunity, Green could be one of the best value picks in 2014.
Bottom Line
San Diego made strides last year under McCoy, particularly towards the end of the year, and I think they bring that momentum into this year. Someone from the backfield will have a good game each week, but good luck figuring out who. Allen is safe and, while Green is the up and comer, Gates should still see his share of red zone looks. The opportunity is there for someone to snag that WR2 spot, but I don't think anyone makes considerable fantasy noise from that position.
Matty O
Sunday, August 3, 2014
2014 Fantasy Breakdown: NFC West
St. Louis Rams
Studs: Zac Stacy, RB
Stacy came out of nowhere last year, as he finally got his shot once running backs Daryl Richardson, Isaiah Pead, and Benny Cunningham all faltered. He became the Rams' workhorse and became one of the rare players who didn't have to worry about a second back cutting into his carries. He finished 14th in rushing yards last year, despite starting only 12 games. He managed to score seven rushing TDs, all while playing in the toughest division in the NFL on a team with a passing offense that did very little. Given his body build and youth, there shouldn't be any concern about overworking him, at least at this point in his career. With a full training camp as the starter, he should be even better this year, despite being in a division with San Francisco, Seattle, and Arizona.
Bust: Stacy
Stacy is mainly here because he was the only one to do consistently well last year for this team. There's also the fact that Stacy will likely cost you a second or third round pick this year, compared to picking him up off waivers last year. Prior to Stacy emerging, the Rams were willing to use a full on rotation of running backs, so it will be interesting to see if they go that route if Stacy struggles. Tre Mason, the Rams' third round pick this year, is also getting a lot of hype as a guy who could cut into Stacy's carries. Mason was the workhorse on the Auburn team that lost in the National Championship game. I think it will take a string of bad games from Stacy for him to lose the job, but if he does, all bets are off.
Sleeper: Sam Bradford, QB
Bradford probably won't be drafted in most leagues, but if you're doing a QB week by week rotation, or your first round pick goes down with injury, Bradford is the guy to watch. Heck, he might even be a solid starter for some fantasy teams this year week in and week out. Certainly injury is always a concern with him, but when he plays, he's actually pretty good. Before going down last year, he passed for 1687 yards, 14 TDs, and only four interceptions in seven games. The Rams bolstered the offensive line by drafting Greg Robinson number two overall. They also added Mason, and already have Stacy, Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, and Kenny Britt. The skill players are good, so now it's up to Bradford to get it done.
Bottom Line
The Rams should be better on both sides of the ball this year. There's a lot of potential here, but not a lot of sure things so don't expect the world from the skill players on this team. The defense/special teams unit is one that could really emerge. Their defense, particularly their front seven, is one of the best in the NFL, and Austin is a dangerous returner. The defense should finish in the top 10 for fantasy, possibly even top 5.
Seattle Seahawks
Studs: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Defense/Special Teams
Lynch, like Stacy, is one of those rare backs that is the unquestioned starter for his team. Similar to the Rams, the Seahawks are big fans of running the football. Lynch is a beast of a man, known for breaking tackles and busting big runs in the process. Also, given his size, his 36 receptions are a bit of a surprise and a nice addition for PPR leagues. He's a touchdown machine and has an offensive line in front of him that is very physical. With Percy Harvin being fully healthy, it will be interesting to see if they try to throw the ball around more this year, or possibly even give Harvin carries out of the backfield (they did in Minnesota when Adrian Peterson was back there). Still, he should continue to see a large amount of carries this year.
What more can be said about this defense? Russell Wilson and Lynch did what they needed to do, but the defense is what took them to and won them the Super Bowl last year. Harvin showed what he can bring to the return game, and they'll have him available right from the start this year. Had it not been for the surprising number of TDs the Chiefs defense scored last year, the Seahawks unit would have finished first in fantasy points last year. They're decent on the road, but absolutely dominant at home with that crowd behind them. It's hard for fantasy defenses to repeat as top units, but expect this one to be top 3.
Bust: Percy Harvin, WR
Harvin always gets plenty of hype every year, and this year is no different. His explosiveness is certainly there, but injuries have plagued him his whole career. The 'Hawks will say that Harvin will be used more and they will try to get the ball in his hands, but I still think they pound the football. I'm also not the biggest believer in Wilson when it comes to making explosive plays. Wilson's calling card is not making the big mistake, rather than trying to make the big play. Even if Harvin doesn't get injured, I just don't think he sees enough looks to justify drafting him as a WR2/FLEX. He might be nice trade bait given his name, and will be a nice asset if your league awards points for return yards. Other than that though, he's a big risk/reward pick.
Sleeper: Paul Richardson, WR
Richardson, the Seahawks' second round pick in this year's draft, is a small, pure speed receiver. I still bet on Harvin getting injured this year, leaving Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse as the only two WRs ahead of Robinson. Robinson will be someone you can snag off of waivers and I think he makes some noise if/when Harvin goes down.
Bottom Line
Despite being the Super Bowl champs, there's not that much fantasy gold to be found here. Wilson will provide you with a solid, but unextraordinary option at QB. Harvin has the potential to go off, but is still a big risk/reward. The defense will give you a great option at defense and Lynch should continue to do what he does.
Arizona Cardinals
Studs: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Michael Floyd, WR
If these two had a decent QB, we might be talking about them as the best WR duo in the league, ahead of Atlanta and Chicago. As it stands, however, Carson Palmer is still the guy throwing them the ball. Despite this, they both managed to put up decent numbers last year. Obviously Fitz is the more well known of the two, but Floyd actually finished with more yards than Fitz last year, but half as many TDs. These two will be very similar to what Washington has formed with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Floyd and Jackson are two guys who can kill you deep at any time. Garcon and Fitz can do the same, but are more reliable pass catchers in the middle of the field and have the ability to run more routes.
Based on name alone, Fitz will get drafted ahead of Floyd, but I actually think Floyd outperforms Fitz in fantasy. I think Floyd racks up a few more TDs and once again, out gains Fitz in receiving yards. Fitz is still the guy for reception numbers, so his value gets a bump in PPR leagues, but Floyd is a dangerous up and coming receiver. The only thing I would be wary about with these two is one going off one week, then the other, then the other, depending on who the top corner is covering. These two compliment each other very well, however, as Fitz could get eight catches for 90 yards with Floyd only needing three catches for 105.
Bust: Larry Fitzgerald, WR
See above. If their draft positions were switched, I think both would be drafted correctly.
Sleeper: Andre Ellington, RB
This is mainly for PPR, as I don't think Ellington outperforms his draft position in standard, but this guy is the real deal. The problem is that it seems like everyone in the world can see that except the Cardinals' coaching staff. Despite clearly being the more explosive player, the coaching staff continued to give Rashard Mendenhall a large amount of snaps. Mendenhall is gone, but Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor are still hanging around. The good news for PPR people, however, is the staff does realize that he is a good pass catcher and dangerous in open space. He's not going to rack up big TD numbers, as I doubt he sees any looks inside the five yard line, but he's far and away the best RB on this roster. If the staff unleashes him, I could see him easily being a top 10 back in PPR.
Bottom Line
There's great skill on the offensive side of the ball, but once again, Palmer is the distributor to all these players. That could be problematic. The two receivers are probably the safest, with Ellington needing the help of the coaching staff to outperform his draft position. Like the other teams in this division, the Cards' defense/ST should be great, and give you a top 10 unit at that position.
San Francisco 49ers
Studs: Vernon Davis, TE, Michael Crabtree, WR, Colin Kaepernick, QB
Davis struggled in 2012, but bounced back in a big way last year, particularly when Crabtree was out of the lineup. His yards and receptions aren't the most impressive things in the world, but his TD total (13 last year) helps out his total fantasy points. He's being drafted behind Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, and Gronk, but I think he finishes ahead of one of these guys. You should be able to fill out your WRs and RBs before drafting him, so the value is there for the number two tight end from last year.
Crabtree has come to develop great chemistry with Kaepernick since being drafted in 2009. Injury killed his numbers last year, but in 2012, he played all 16 games and finished with 85 receptions, 1,105 yards, and nine TDs. His performance in the playoffs, particularly against Green Bay (8 catches, 125 yards) was encouraging coming into this year. Anquan Boldin and newly acquired Stevie Johnson should make this passing offense even more dangerous, and possibly draw even more coverage away from Crabtree. Just don't start him when Richard Sherman is playing.
Kap had a terrible start to last year, posting single digit fantasy games in three of his first five games. He played well down the stretch though, throwing only three interceptions after their bye week. His legs always gives him a chance to put up great fantasy numbers, though I still think his passing skills are mediocre, leading to the single digit duds that he posts from time to time. When the 49er offense is clicking and the read option is in full swing, however, Kap becomes one of the most dangerous QBs in the league. I think with the weapons around him, he has a better year than 2013 and finishes in the top 6 for QBs.
Bust: Frank Gore, RB
One of these years, Gore will break down. He's been extremely resistant to doing so however. Gore, once again, eclipsed 1000 yards last year, and added nine TDs for good measure. Most RBs experience a rather sharp decline after the age of 30 and I'll say that this is the season it hits Gore. The good news for Gore is the Jim Harbaugh is committed to running the ball and the Niners offensive line is one of the best in the league. With the wealth of RB talent behind him though, I wouldn't be surprised if the Niners executed some kind of pitch count, where Gore gets his carries cut back. I've thought his decline was going to come for a couple seasons now, so it's entirely possible I'm wrong on this one, but the drop off has to happen at some point.
Sleeper: Stevie Johnson, WR
Despite being billed as the number two WR behind Boldin and Crabtree, I think he'll put up solid numbers. Keep in mind Johnson was the number one WR in Buffalo and put up three straight 1,000 yard seasons from 2010-2012. The talent that he'll be playing with in San Fran is also extremely better than what he ever had in Buffalo. Crabtree will almost always see the other team's top corner, giving Johnson an opportunity to get favorable matchups. He'll act more like a slot receiver than the big play role he had in Buffalo, but I think, particularly in PPR, Johnson puts up respectable numbers given the low draft pick it will cost you.
Bottom Line
The Niners have the most fantasy relevant skill players in this division. I actually think, at least from a fantasy perspective, that the Niners have the weakest defense in the division and could finish outside the top 10 with Bowman probably not available until the middle of the season and Aldon Smith's uncertain status. They'll need all the offensive firepower they can get when they see their other division rivals.
Matty O
Studs: Zac Stacy, RB
Stacy came out of nowhere last year, as he finally got his shot once running backs Daryl Richardson, Isaiah Pead, and Benny Cunningham all faltered. He became the Rams' workhorse and became one of the rare players who didn't have to worry about a second back cutting into his carries. He finished 14th in rushing yards last year, despite starting only 12 games. He managed to score seven rushing TDs, all while playing in the toughest division in the NFL on a team with a passing offense that did very little. Given his body build and youth, there shouldn't be any concern about overworking him, at least at this point in his career. With a full training camp as the starter, he should be even better this year, despite being in a division with San Francisco, Seattle, and Arizona.
Bust: Stacy
Stacy is mainly here because he was the only one to do consistently well last year for this team. There's also the fact that Stacy will likely cost you a second or third round pick this year, compared to picking him up off waivers last year. Prior to Stacy emerging, the Rams were willing to use a full on rotation of running backs, so it will be interesting to see if they go that route if Stacy struggles. Tre Mason, the Rams' third round pick this year, is also getting a lot of hype as a guy who could cut into Stacy's carries. Mason was the workhorse on the Auburn team that lost in the National Championship game. I think it will take a string of bad games from Stacy for him to lose the job, but if he does, all bets are off.
Sleeper: Sam Bradford, QB
Bradford probably won't be drafted in most leagues, but if you're doing a QB week by week rotation, or your first round pick goes down with injury, Bradford is the guy to watch. Heck, he might even be a solid starter for some fantasy teams this year week in and week out. Certainly injury is always a concern with him, but when he plays, he's actually pretty good. Before going down last year, he passed for 1687 yards, 14 TDs, and only four interceptions in seven games. The Rams bolstered the offensive line by drafting Greg Robinson number two overall. They also added Mason, and already have Stacy, Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, and Kenny Britt. The skill players are good, so now it's up to Bradford to get it done.
Bottom Line
The Rams should be better on both sides of the ball this year. There's a lot of potential here, but not a lot of sure things so don't expect the world from the skill players on this team. The defense/special teams unit is one that could really emerge. Their defense, particularly their front seven, is one of the best in the NFL, and Austin is a dangerous returner. The defense should finish in the top 10 for fantasy, possibly even top 5.
Seattle Seahawks
Studs: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Defense/Special Teams
Lynch, like Stacy, is one of those rare backs that is the unquestioned starter for his team. Similar to the Rams, the Seahawks are big fans of running the football. Lynch is a beast of a man, known for breaking tackles and busting big runs in the process. Also, given his size, his 36 receptions are a bit of a surprise and a nice addition for PPR leagues. He's a touchdown machine and has an offensive line in front of him that is very physical. With Percy Harvin being fully healthy, it will be interesting to see if they try to throw the ball around more this year, or possibly even give Harvin carries out of the backfield (they did in Minnesota when Adrian Peterson was back there). Still, he should continue to see a large amount of carries this year.
What more can be said about this defense? Russell Wilson and Lynch did what they needed to do, but the defense is what took them to and won them the Super Bowl last year. Harvin showed what he can bring to the return game, and they'll have him available right from the start this year. Had it not been for the surprising number of TDs the Chiefs defense scored last year, the Seahawks unit would have finished first in fantasy points last year. They're decent on the road, but absolutely dominant at home with that crowd behind them. It's hard for fantasy defenses to repeat as top units, but expect this one to be top 3.
Bust: Percy Harvin, WR
Harvin always gets plenty of hype every year, and this year is no different. His explosiveness is certainly there, but injuries have plagued him his whole career. The 'Hawks will say that Harvin will be used more and they will try to get the ball in his hands, but I still think they pound the football. I'm also not the biggest believer in Wilson when it comes to making explosive plays. Wilson's calling card is not making the big mistake, rather than trying to make the big play. Even if Harvin doesn't get injured, I just don't think he sees enough looks to justify drafting him as a WR2/FLEX. He might be nice trade bait given his name, and will be a nice asset if your league awards points for return yards. Other than that though, he's a big risk/reward pick.
Sleeper: Paul Richardson, WR
Richardson, the Seahawks' second round pick in this year's draft, is a small, pure speed receiver. I still bet on Harvin getting injured this year, leaving Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse as the only two WRs ahead of Robinson. Robinson will be someone you can snag off of waivers and I think he makes some noise if/when Harvin goes down.
Bottom Line
Despite being the Super Bowl champs, there's not that much fantasy gold to be found here. Wilson will provide you with a solid, but unextraordinary option at QB. Harvin has the potential to go off, but is still a big risk/reward. The defense will give you a great option at defense and Lynch should continue to do what he does.
Arizona Cardinals
Studs: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Michael Floyd, WR
If these two had a decent QB, we might be talking about them as the best WR duo in the league, ahead of Atlanta and Chicago. As it stands, however, Carson Palmer is still the guy throwing them the ball. Despite this, they both managed to put up decent numbers last year. Obviously Fitz is the more well known of the two, but Floyd actually finished with more yards than Fitz last year, but half as many TDs. These two will be very similar to what Washington has formed with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Floyd and Jackson are two guys who can kill you deep at any time. Garcon and Fitz can do the same, but are more reliable pass catchers in the middle of the field and have the ability to run more routes.
Based on name alone, Fitz will get drafted ahead of Floyd, but I actually think Floyd outperforms Fitz in fantasy. I think Floyd racks up a few more TDs and once again, out gains Fitz in receiving yards. Fitz is still the guy for reception numbers, so his value gets a bump in PPR leagues, but Floyd is a dangerous up and coming receiver. The only thing I would be wary about with these two is one going off one week, then the other, then the other, depending on who the top corner is covering. These two compliment each other very well, however, as Fitz could get eight catches for 90 yards with Floyd only needing three catches for 105.
Bust: Larry Fitzgerald, WR
See above. If their draft positions were switched, I think both would be drafted correctly.
Sleeper: Andre Ellington, RB
This is mainly for PPR, as I don't think Ellington outperforms his draft position in standard, but this guy is the real deal. The problem is that it seems like everyone in the world can see that except the Cardinals' coaching staff. Despite clearly being the more explosive player, the coaching staff continued to give Rashard Mendenhall a large amount of snaps. Mendenhall is gone, but Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor are still hanging around. The good news for PPR people, however, is the staff does realize that he is a good pass catcher and dangerous in open space. He's not going to rack up big TD numbers, as I doubt he sees any looks inside the five yard line, but he's far and away the best RB on this roster. If the staff unleashes him, I could see him easily being a top 10 back in PPR.
Bottom Line
There's great skill on the offensive side of the ball, but once again, Palmer is the distributor to all these players. That could be problematic. The two receivers are probably the safest, with Ellington needing the help of the coaching staff to outperform his draft position. Like the other teams in this division, the Cards' defense/ST should be great, and give you a top 10 unit at that position.
San Francisco 49ers
Studs: Vernon Davis, TE, Michael Crabtree, WR, Colin Kaepernick, QB
Davis struggled in 2012, but bounced back in a big way last year, particularly when Crabtree was out of the lineup. His yards and receptions aren't the most impressive things in the world, but his TD total (13 last year) helps out his total fantasy points. He's being drafted behind Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, and Gronk, but I think he finishes ahead of one of these guys. You should be able to fill out your WRs and RBs before drafting him, so the value is there for the number two tight end from last year.
Crabtree has come to develop great chemistry with Kaepernick since being drafted in 2009. Injury killed his numbers last year, but in 2012, he played all 16 games and finished with 85 receptions, 1,105 yards, and nine TDs. His performance in the playoffs, particularly against Green Bay (8 catches, 125 yards) was encouraging coming into this year. Anquan Boldin and newly acquired Stevie Johnson should make this passing offense even more dangerous, and possibly draw even more coverage away from Crabtree. Just don't start him when Richard Sherman is playing.
Kap had a terrible start to last year, posting single digit fantasy games in three of his first five games. He played well down the stretch though, throwing only three interceptions after their bye week. His legs always gives him a chance to put up great fantasy numbers, though I still think his passing skills are mediocre, leading to the single digit duds that he posts from time to time. When the 49er offense is clicking and the read option is in full swing, however, Kap becomes one of the most dangerous QBs in the league. I think with the weapons around him, he has a better year than 2013 and finishes in the top 6 for QBs.
Bust: Frank Gore, RB
One of these years, Gore will break down. He's been extremely resistant to doing so however. Gore, once again, eclipsed 1000 yards last year, and added nine TDs for good measure. Most RBs experience a rather sharp decline after the age of 30 and I'll say that this is the season it hits Gore. The good news for Gore is the Jim Harbaugh is committed to running the ball and the Niners offensive line is one of the best in the league. With the wealth of RB talent behind him though, I wouldn't be surprised if the Niners executed some kind of pitch count, where Gore gets his carries cut back. I've thought his decline was going to come for a couple seasons now, so it's entirely possible I'm wrong on this one, but the drop off has to happen at some point.
Sleeper: Stevie Johnson, WR
Despite being billed as the number two WR behind Boldin and Crabtree, I think he'll put up solid numbers. Keep in mind Johnson was the number one WR in Buffalo and put up three straight 1,000 yard seasons from 2010-2012. The talent that he'll be playing with in San Fran is also extremely better than what he ever had in Buffalo. Crabtree will almost always see the other team's top corner, giving Johnson an opportunity to get favorable matchups. He'll act more like a slot receiver than the big play role he had in Buffalo, but I think, particularly in PPR, Johnson puts up respectable numbers given the low draft pick it will cost you.
Bottom Line
The Niners have the most fantasy relevant skill players in this division. I actually think, at least from a fantasy perspective, that the Niners have the weakest defense in the division and could finish outside the top 10 with Bowman probably not available until the middle of the season and Aldon Smith's uncertain status. They'll need all the offensive firepower they can get when they see their other division rivals.
Matty O
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