Baltimore Ravens
Studs: Ray Rice, RB
Down year in 2013 aside, Rice has always been one of the top backs taken, particularly in PPR with all the checkdowns and screens Joe Flacco throws. The difference is that this year he can be drafted for cheap. Rice is playing this preseason, but cannot play the first two weeks of the season so you should prepare for that if you are drafting him, intending to use him as a starter. If you're doing a standard league, then it's fair to be less optimistic about Rice, but he averaged 11.87 points per game last year in PPR, mainly due to his receptions. RB1 numbers will be hard to match, but you could do worse than picking Rice in the middle rounds.
Bust: Rice, RB
The above was the good, but there is a lot of risk with Rice here. As already mentioned, he's already two games of production behind anybody else. During that time, it's not out of the question that Bernard Pierce could establish himself as the go to guy, or at least turn the backfield into a frustrating timeshare. He's getting up there in age for running backs, and certainly up there in touches of the ball so perhaps last year was the start of his decline. The Baltimore offensive line is average, so without his quick cuts, he could be looking at another struggling season. He has a better chance this year to outplay his low draft position, but with already being two games behind, competing with an established backup, and running behind an okay line, it's possible Rice fades during this 2014 fantasy season.
Sleeper: Steve Smith, WR
Similar to Stevie Johnson, I like when productive number one WRs come over from one team to be the second or third option on their new team. Normally, the season why they're not the WR1 is because there are established players ahead of them. This doesn't mean, however, that their skills have diminished. It's truly amazing that Smith has been able to post seven 1,000 yard seasons with the numerous and poor quality QBs that have come through Carolina. Now he becomes a possession kind of guy as the likes of Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones make the deep plays. He has a low ceiling, but a low floor as well. Given that he's going in the 10th round or later, I think he makes for a nice pickup.
Bottom Line
The Ravens have a lot of uncertainty going into this year. Their backfield is unclear once Rice comes back. Flacco needs to improve on a down year last year. How will Dennis Pitta fare coming back from a season hampered by injury? Will this defense go back to being elite?
Cincinnati Bengals
Studs: AJ Green, WR
Green was a big reason, if not the reason, why Andy Dalton just got a huge contract extension. Green has turned into one of the top five receivers in the game, and should be drafted as such. He has no injury concerns, can kill a defense deep, and puts up great reception numbers for those PPR league people. He, along with Calvin Johnson and Demariyus Thomas are probably the safest WRs, and maybe safest players you can draft. Second rounder for standard, end of the first in a 12 team PPR.
Bust: Giovani Bernard, RB
This has nothing to do with his skill, but has a lot to do with one Jeremy Hill, who was drafted this past spring. Taken in the second round, Hill is sure to find some playing time this year in this offense. He's a between the tackles kind of guy who could become the Bengals' goal line back. Consider also that despite the hype and production of Bernard last year, BenJarvus Green-Ellis still saw 220 carries. Hill may get a similar workload, and BJGE is still on the roster so some touches could be in store for him as well. The good news for Gio is he will be the only one catching passes out of the backfield for this team, which could save his value in PPR. The upside is there, but he will have to do the most with the limited touches he receives.
Sleeper: Andy Dalton, QB
The Red Rocket just can't seem to get any love. Despite finishing fifth in fantasy this year, he's ranked outside the top 12, meaning he won't be any team's starter. Last year was his first 4,000+ yard season and his 33 TD passes were third most behind Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. He lit the world on fire last year from Weeks 6-8 as he threw for 1,034 yards and 11 TDs. His interceptions (20) could use to come down a bit, but I think he should be viewed more as a QB1 than a QB2. Drafting Dalton late will allow you to build depth for the rest of your team.
Bottom Line
The favorites of the division, the backfield situation will be one to keep a close eye on. Marvin Jones or Mohamed Sanu may emerge as a WR2. Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert are both great players, but since the Bengals actively use both, it's hard to determine production week from week. This defensive unit should be great once again.
Cleveland Browns
Studs: None
It's hard to find studs on this team because everyone is basically new and Josh Gordon is facing a season long suspension. Jordan Cameron is possible, but he tailed off last year and Norv Turner is gone.
Bust: Ben Tate, RB
Despite being a backup RB, Tate has been injured recently more often than not. It's very rare for a backup to be consistently struggling with injury. Now he starts Week 1 as the starting RB, which is bad news for his durability. Without Gordon, teams will undoubtedly stack the box, allowing Tate to be teed off on by linebackers and safeties. Draftee Terrance West has also gotten a lot of hype to take carries away from Tate, even if he stays healthy. In West's final year at Towson, he ran for 2,509 yards and got a ridiculous 41 TDs. I can't care who you play for or against, that's insane. Tate is going in the third which is far too high to risk a back like this.
Sleeper: Andrew Hawkins, WR
File this under the idea that someone has to catch the ball for this team. While we don't know for how long, it's safe to say that Gordon will miss some time this year. Hard to hype this guy beyond that. His best year was in 2012 when he caught 51 yards for 533 yards and four TDs. Not that impressive, though he was the third option on the Bengals at the time. He's a small guy (5'7") and will likely play out of the slot. He might find some value in PPR leagues as he will likely be assigned to running short, quick routes for easy throws from Dalton. Can't give him a ringing endorsement, but for those in 14 team PPR leagues, he may provide some value.
Bottom Line
There are so many new faces on this team that I really wouldn't be comfortable drafting any of them. I think West gives you the most upside, but he's an unproven rookie from a small school. Johnny Manziel will always be a hot debate to how he does, but I think he will struggle this year. There's a lack of skill players around him and his passing decision making will get him into trouble in 2014. The defense has improved and should finish in the top 10 if they can force more turnovers.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Studs: Antonio Brown, WR, Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Le'Veon Bell, RB
While he might not look as physically imposing as a Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant, Brown has quietly become one of the better WRs in the league. He runs every route in the book, has elite quickness, and can turn a five yard slant into a 70 yard TD. Emmanuel Sanders is now in Denver, opening up more catches and looks for Brown. He never had less than five catches last year and should be a PPR monster once again. He's a top five PPR WR and could easily finish in the top three.
Big Ben doesn't have the upside like Brown or Bell, but he is one of those reliable options that will get you what you expect more often than not. Around 4,000 yards, decent TD total, and average INT total is what Ben will give you. He's probably the best backup fantasy QB you can have, but you can justify him as a starter if you loaded up on skill positions earlier in your draft. Injury will always be a concern because of his tendency to hold onto the ball to make a play, but he's got the body to endure the hits. He's a great option given his draft position.
Once Bell got the start in Week 4, he never looked back. He churned out a nice rookie year with 860 yards and eight TDs. He also tacked on 45 receptions which was nice for those PPR-ers. Some might be concerned with LaGarrette Blount coming off a good year in New England to become Bell's backup. I wouldn't be too worried as Blount's opportunity only came because the Patriots' backfield was an absolute mess last year. Bell is the guy and should only cede carries when tired, and possibly in goal line situations, though Bell is large enough to handle that duty as well. His value is boosted in PPR leagues.
Bust: None
Have to go with none here simply because Brown and Bell are the only ones going high this year. I've already expressed my confidence in these two so a bust is hard to find in Pittsburgh.
Sleeper: Markus Wheaton, WR
The opportunity is here for the speedy second year man as Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery are gone, leaving the WR2 slot open to Wheaton. He didn't get a lot of experience last year as the WR corps was crowded, but should have plenty of chances to earn his way into two WR sets. He's not very big, but he's quick and fast which works in the Steelers short, quick pass offense. He could put up some nice reception totals depending on how the Steelers use him. This prediction is all about his upside as he did very little last year with very little opportunity.
Bottom Line
The Steelers will continue to use the quick, short pass offense to try and protect Big Ben from himself, forcing him to get the ball out early. Heath Miller might be a nice draft choice late at TE. While the Steelers defense would like to, and are building towards being better, I think they once again struggle as a fantasy defense.
Matty O
No comments:
Post a Comment