Chicago Bears
Studs: Brandon Marshall, WR, Alshon Jeffery, WR, Matt Forte, RB
After an injury plagued and mediocre rookie season, Jeffery exploded in his second year using his 6'3", 216 lb. frame to his advantage to rack up 1,421 yards and seven TDs in 2013. While his best game came when Josh McCown was under center (Week 13 @ Minnesota, 249 yards, 2 TDs), he still performed well when Cutler was there. Mark Trestman's system puts any QB in a position to succeed, while allowing both Marshall and Jeffery to get theirs. Marshall is the more consistent guy, particularly when Cutler is under center, but Jeffery has now established himself as a legitimate threat in this offense.
Forte, particularly in PPR, has to be considered one of the top three picks off the board along with Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. Heck, you could make an argument he should go one overall. 2014 provides even more optimism as he finally proved he could score TDs, which was something that held him back fantasy wise and made a guy like Michael Bush relevant. Those days are gone as he adds scoring ability with a runner who is a near lock for 1,000 yards and 50+ catches. He had his highest reception total of his career with Trestman in 2013 and will look to match or improve upon the 74 he hauled in last year. Draft him early with confidence.
Bust: Jeffery, WR
Maybe bust is the wrong word, but I don't think he'll play up to where he's being drafted. Jeffery is currently one of the top 10 WRs off the board and I think that's too high for him. I still think he'll have a decent year, but there's a few things to keep in mind here. For starters, he's the deep ball threat of the two wideouts which means he's more likely to win you a week, but also more likely to put up a dud. While he might have put up 20+ points three times last year, he also put up seven or less seven times last year. Compare that to Marshall who had three such games last year. Also, unlike last year, Jeffery is now a known weapon out wide so more defenses may put their top corner on him or shift the defense his way more rather than towards Marshall. Again, top 25, even top 20 numbers are probable, but top 10 numbers might be difficult to duplicate in 2014 with Cutler under center.
Sleeper: Cutler, QB
When looking at fantasy QBs, you could care less who they throw to. Thankfully for Cutler, he was Jeffery, Marshall, Forte, and Martellus Bennett to throw to. Cutler was thriving under Trestman's system prior to his injury throwing for 1,630 yards and 12 TDs. The interceptions also came with, but that's something that you have to take if you own Cutler. Similar to a Brett Favre or Tony Romo type QB, no system or any amount of weapons will change their gun slinging mentality. If you can live with the picks, then Cutler will make a nice addition to anyone's fantasy squad. Cutler is currently the 15th ranked QB, which is really low given the weapons around him. He's proven he can put up big numbers (see: 2008 in Denver, 2009 in Chicago) so it's fair to say he is poised for a big year. Given his draft position, you can load up at the other positions and still grab a great starting QB.
Bottom Line
Look for the passing game to once again explode in Chicago. The only significant concern is if Cutler goes down. They won the backup QB lottery last year as Josh McCown played out of his mind, but you certainly can't expect that every year. If Cutler goes, I think Marshall and Forte stay relevant, but Jeffery could drop off a cliff. Best to just pray that doesn't happen.
Detroit Lions
Studs: Calvin Johnson, WR, Matthew Stafford, QB
Johnson, aka Megatron, is the gold standard for WRs. He has size, speed, and chemistry with his QB, making him the consensus number one WR off the board for a few years now. Bothered by knee and finger injuries, including missing a game Week 5, Megatron still finished as the third best fantasy WR. He's a lock to finish top three and should be the first WR taken in all drafts. In a PPR setting, I could see him going as high as four once Forte, McCoy, and Charles are off the board. Last year I escaped the RB minefield that was the first round by taking Megatron and finishing first in the regular season of my PPR league. He's an extremely safe pick.
The guy throwing him the ball, Stafford, is a rich man's Cutler. He'll put up more yards and TDs, but he also has that reckless mentality and makes some throws that just make you cringe. If it weren't for his decision making, he could easily finish top three year in and year out, but his interception totals have been and will continue to be, high. The good news is the Lions, for the first time in a while, made a real effort to acquire more weapons than just Megatron. They got Golden Tate from Seattle and drafted Eric Ebron in the first round. He has the tools around him to turn in a top five season if he can clean up the turnovers.
Bust: Reggie Bush, RB, Sleeper: Joique Bell, RB
Explosiveness, big play ability, inconsistency, injury prone. These are all adjectives that can be used to describe Reggie Bush. Bush, one of the more dangerous players in open space, can quickly give owners headaches by putting up dud performances every other week, or being unavailable to play. I had him a couple years ago and you would literally hold your breath every time you saw him get hit in a game. The one saving grace that Bush has is his ability to catch the football. In PPR leagues, his value is boosted substantially due to the high volume of catches he brings in (54 in 14 games last year).
Unfortunately for Bush, his backup, Joique Bell performed very well when his number was called. Bell signed an extension this year and looks to be a larger part of this offense. Given Bush's injury history, I wouldn't be surprised. A running back committee will probably be established to start the year, but I could see Bell earning the job away from Bush by mid season. Bush will still break off some long ones, but Bell will see more playing time and have more opportunity to rack up points. Bell could be one of the best values this year.
Bottom Line
Even with new head coach Jim Caldwell, expect the Lions' passing attack to be one of the best in the NFL. There will probably be a three player rotation at tight end in Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew, and Joseph Fauria so it will be hard to determine a clear starter there. I like Ebron's potential, but it would take an injury to both Pettigrew and Fauria for him to make an impact this year.
Green Bay Packers
Studs: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Eddie Lacy, RB, Jordy Nelson, WR
Mr. Discount Double Check, Rodgers is back from an injury shortened season, looking to finish as one of the top three QBs in the league in 2014. A lot of the same weapons come back for him so I don't expect him to miss a beat. Lacy is now an established threat in the backfield, making it harder for defenses to simply defend the pass and not worry about the run. The fact that Rodgers came back to play at the end of last year should alleviate any concerns about his injury. Expect top three production out of Rodgers this year.
I did not see Lacy's fantastic rookie year coming. I thought he was alright in college and wasn't sure how his game would transition to the pros. Well, he ran for over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs, despite having Matt Flynn in charge as his QB. Probably the most surprising stat is the fact that Lacy managed to haul in 35 receptions last year, despite his big size. With Rodgers back, his receptions should only go up. Lacy also has the goal line back duties sewn up, which is rare seeing as how most teams have a designated goal line back nowadays. Lacy should go top 10 overall, and should improve upon his rookie campaign with a healthy Rodgers for all 16 games.
With the departure of Greg Jennings to Minnesota, Nelson stepped up in a big way last year finishing with 1,314 yards and 8 TDs. This was with some Flynn thrown in there and coming back from an injury shortened 2012 campaign. Nelson is a PPR monster, particularly when Rodgers is on the field. In their final division clinching win over the Bears last year, Nelson was targeted 16 times, hauling in 10 of those passes. Like everyone on this Packers team, Nelson's numbers should only improve with Rodgers back at full health. Nelson is a safe pick as the number one guy in this offense.
Bust: Randall Cobb, WR
Cobb became a fantasy sensation two years ago as he went for nearly 1,000 yards and caught eight TDs. He started off last year playing well the first two games, struggled for two games, then broke his leg in Week 6 in Baltimore. He's a talented enough player, but the boom or bust label is there when it comes to this guy, and his size (5'10", 192 lbs.) is a bit of a concern. He's not going to lead the team in targets week to week (see: Nelson) and is far from a red zone threat. His size makes me wonder if his injury last year was just a one time thing or the start of a recurring trend. Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, and Keenan Allen are all being taken after him; all of whom are safer, potentially better options.
Sleeper: Jarrett Boykin, WR
For those that played last year, you probably remember this name. Boykin, while inconsistent, had a smattering of nice games, most of them with backup Matt Flynn. With James Jones now in Oakland, Boykin is the clear number three WR behind Nelson and Cobb. While I don't think he sets the world on fire, he is being taken behind the likes of Hakeem Nicks, Dwayne Bowe, and Rueben Randle. He makes a nice FLEX play in PPR, and instantly becomes a WR2 if Cobb or Nelson were to go down.
Bottom Line
The Packers as a whole should be better this year. It's nothing short of miraculous that they won the NFC North last year given the injuries that they had. If Clay Matthews can stay healthy, this defense could become fantasy relevant once again. The passing game is safe to invest in here, as well as Lacy on the ground.
Minnesota Vikings
Studs: Adrian Peterson, RB
Peterson is similar to Megatron in that no matter what is going on around them (change in QB, change in coaching staff), you still expect them to put up great numbers. After a 2,000+ yard season in 2012, Peterson had a "down" year with 1,266 yards and 10 TDs in 14 games. He's one of the few backs that has the backfield to himself and is the centerpiece of this offense. While his yardage totals were down, he once again achieved double digit TDs, something he's done every year in the NFL (including his 12 game 2011 season). He did struggle a bit with injuries down the stretch last year, but I wouldn't be too worried about that. While he's no longer the consensus number one RB with players like Charles, McCoy, and Forte catching up, he's still one of the best in the league and should go in the top five or six picks overall.
Bust: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR
This is a case of hype outweighing the truth. Everyone fell in love with Patterson last year, mainly because of his explosiveness on special teams in the return game. His offensive stats were not impressive at all, however. He had one breakout game in Week 14 where he went for 141 yards and a TD. Apart from that though, very little was done. I do think he improves upon his offensive numbers in his second year as a pro, but him being taken ahead of proven guys like Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston is too high. Even taking him ahead of other high upside guys like Jeremy Maclin and Emmanuel Sanders, both of whom are on explosive offenses, is ill advised. If he falls to me, I'll take him, but I think he disappoints a lot of people in the fantasy community this year.
Sleeper: Kyle Rudolph, TE
Norv Turner. In truth, I could stop this segment right there. His recent success with tight ends is impressive. As the head coach of the Chargers from 2007-2012, Antonio Gates played his best football. As the offensive coordinator for the Browns last year, Jordan Cameron made everyone's sleeper prediction look good. Now he gets Rudolph, a 6'6", 259 lb. beast. Rudolph's less than impressive numbers have mainly been due to the fact that he's never really been a focus of their offense, and their QB situation has never really been stable. Regardless of who gets the QB start, I think Norv will make it a point to get Rudolph involved. He did have nine TDs in 2012 so his red zone threat has already been established. If Norv can get him more involved between the 20s, this could be a great year for Rudolph. He won't cost you a high draft pick either.
Bottom Line
The Vikings are clearly at the bottom of this division, but they're making progress. It will be interesting to see when, or if, the coaching staff allows rookie Teddy Bridgewater to take over the starting QB job. After years of Christian Ponder and now Matt Cassel, I think Bridgewater would be a welcome sight under center. He might even make a nice matchup start once the bye weeks start.
Matty O
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