Studs: Peyton Manning, QB, Demaryius Thomas, WR, Julius Thomas, TE
What else can be said about Manning? Even at his advanced age (38), he's still one of the best, if not the best, QB in the league today. He has everything going for him with a great offensive line, weapons all around him, and the freedom to put everyone in a position to succeed. To be honest, I thought he was going to struggle after leaving Indy and having neck surgery. So, of course he has the best regular season a QB has ever had last year, becoming one of the most valuable fantasy assets in recent memory. Even with all the weapons around him, it will be hard to repeat last season (they play the NFC West this year), but he should still put up the best fantasy numbers by any QB. He'll cost you a higher pick than last year, but he's one of the safer options to match or outperform his draft position.
Thomas has, surprisingly quietly, turned into one of the best WRs in the league. While he might not have the public reputation of a Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant, he puts up the stats that prove he's at least in the top five WRs in the game. Even with all the mouths to feed on the Broncos, you can bet that Thomas will be able to get his. He finished second last year in fantasy points, with only Josh Gordon beating him out. Despite this, he's still ranked behind Megatron and I could see people being tempted to take someone like Dez, Julio Jones, or AJ Green ahead of Thomas. I would still probably take Megatron based on his track record, but would definitely take Thomas number two. He should have another great season.
Yes, the sample size is small, but J. Thomas is in the same mold of these big, physical, athletic tight ends (Jimmy Graham, Gronk), that have taken over the league as of late. Given his build and place in this offense, I think it's fair to expect great production going forward. J. Thomas, thanks to the potent WRs on the outside, will almost always have favorable matchups particularly in the middle of the field. He's money in the red zone, finishing with 12 TDs last year, third only to Vernon Davis and Graham among tight ends. He missed two games during the middle of the year last year, but finished perfectly fine. While he has room to improve, I still don't think he touches Graham or a healthy Gronk's numbers, but should settle in as the number two or three TE for fantasy this year.
Bust: Montee Ball, RB
I've been going back and forth on Ball, and it's certainly possible he could have a good year (just look at Peyton's history with running backs), but I don't trust him as a top 15 back, which is where he's being drafted currently. He finished the year strong, but had a case of fumble-itis early on. The main reason he didn't see as much playing time as he should have was his poor pass protection, which is fairly important when your franchise QB is 38 and not the most fleet of foot. Moreno might be gone, but that doesn't automatically make him a better pass blocker. If he doesn't perform in that area, the coaching staff won't hesitate to pull back his snaps. Heck, he couldn't start over Knowshon Moreno last year who was pretty much a bust prior to 2013. The opportunity is there for Ball, given the explosiveness of this offense, but there are concerns.
Sleeper: Cody Latimer, WR
Emmanuel Sanders would also fit this label, but let me use this space to hype up Latimer. Latimer is likely unknown due to the college team he played for (Indiana), but this guy is the real deal. Latimer is another big, strong WR (6'2", 215 lbs.) that will probably see limited snaps to start the year, but hopefully gets more responsibility later on in the year. Wes Welker has not exactly been a picture of health lately, so an injury there could open up room for Latimer in three WR sets. Latimer finished third in the Big Ten last year for receiving yards, topping 1,000 yards and racking up nine TDs. This sleeper prediction might be a year too soon, but if something happens to either Welker, D. Thomas, or Sanders, Latimer will be a hot commodity.
Bottom Line
Picking anyone in this offense is probably a good pick. I might be down on Ball, but like I said, the opportunity is there and it's possible he turns in a top 15 season. On the defensive side of the ball, you have to be excited about all the new acquisitions they made. They had their moments last year, but finished middle of the pack fantasy wise. I think they turn that around and are a safe bet to wind up as a top 10 fantasy defense.
Kansas City Chiefs
Studs: Jamaal Charles, RB
Fantasy MVP from last year, Charles showed explosiveness throughout the year. As an added bonus, especially for those PPR people, he racked up 70 receptions as he became quite the security blanket for game manager Alex Smith. He is the center piece of their entire offense, which is extremely rare to say about a RB in this day and age. Knile Davis, the RB behind him, showed flashes of what he can do, but Charles should be able to keep that hype at bay for 2014. Charles will most likely be one of the first three picks in any draft, and deservedly so.
Bust: Defense/Special Teams
This unit came out of nowhere last year to finish as the top fantasy defense. Unfortunately, I don't think they stay there and even drop out of the top 15. For starters, they lost their top corner in Brandon Flowers to division rival San Diego. They scored a ridiculous 11 TDs, which will be extremely hard to repeat no matter the defense. They also put up some absolute duds down the stretch last year. They put in great performances in Weeks 14 and 15 against Washington and Oakland, but Washington had pretty much given up at that point and Oakland is hardly scary on offense. Around those performances, they put up -1 (Denver), -7 (San Diego), 1 (Denver), 0 (Indianapolis), 2 (San Diego). Ouch. And don't even bring up the disaster that was their playoff game. Oakland's offense should be better this year and Denver and San Diego will do what they do. I think the drop off could be extreme for this unit. I don't say this about many units coming off a big year, but I wouldn't even draft these guys.
Sleeper: De'Anthony Thomas, RB
I'm trying to avoid putting none in categories like I did last year, so I'll go with the highest upside guy on this team. While I don't truly see any real sleepers on this team, I could see Thomas going off in one or two games this year. He'll be one of the smaller guys on the field, but he is crazy fast and can break off a big one at any time. He's listed as a RB, but will more likely be used as a pass catcher than a runner. Screens and short passes with the hope of yards after catch is what you're hoping for with Thomas. He'll definitely see time as a returner for this team, but his offensive snaps will be limited. Look for a couple Tavon Austin-like performances from last year, where Thomas maybe gets only three or four touches, but turns them into long gains and TDs.
Bottom Line
As you can tell, I don't have a lot of optimism when it comes to this Chiefs team. Charles will still put up numbers, but there's little to be excited about beyond him. Surprisingly, they chose not to aggressively draft anything to help out the offensive side of the ball. That costs them this year.
Oakland Raiders
Studs: None
I know I said I didn't want to put none in these categories, but who would you put here? Maurice Jones-Drew is the only one who comes close, but his recent seasons haven't been anything close to great.
Bust: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB
His recent seasons haven't been great and I don't think this one will be either. Even at a lower than normal draft position for him, I still don't think he's worth it. His best days are behind him, and he should concede carries to Darren McFadden and Latavius Murphy. MJD might become Oakland's goal line back, though you have to wonder how many chances he'll get down there. He'll be a decent FLEX fill in during bye weeks, and possibly even trade bait given the reputation of his name. Still, I would wait until late until considering him.
Sleeper: James Jones, WR
Here's hoping for the 2012 Jones, not the 2013 Jones. In 2012, with Jordy Nelson missing time due to injury, Jones posted 784 yards and a surprising 14 TDs for the Packers. Obviously there is a significant downgrade at QB, but I could see Jones making noise this year. The Raiders will be trailing in a lot of games and Jones may avoid the other team's top corner as they put him on either Denarius Moore or Rod Streater. I certainly don't have a lot of confidence in this choice, but someone has to catch the ball for the Raiders. Limited upside here, but could develop into the clear number one receiver for the Raiders.
Bottom Line
Lots of questions here for the Raiders. Who will be the starting QB? What will the WR depth chart look like? How will carries be split, if at all? Too many questions to feel safe about drafting anyone on this team. Someone could emerge from the backfield so that will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the start of the season. While I wish no ill will on anyone, if McFadden or MJD were to get injured before the season started, that would certainly boost the other one's stock.
San Diego Chargers
Studs: Phillip Rivers, QB, Keenan Allen, WR
After an atrocious 2012, Rivers bounced under new coach Mike McCoy in 2013 to finish 6th in fantasy points last year. Now in his second season with McCoy, I expect Rivers to maintain that level of success, if not eclipse that. He has great skill players around him and, as long as he takes care of the ball, should return to top 10 status this year at QB. He'll still make some head scratching decisions at times, but look for a more consistent Rivers in 2014.
Allen is one reason why Rivers will maintain his high ranking. Allen eclipsed 1,000 yards and scored eight TDs as a rookie last year, despite doing next to nothing the first three games of the season (in fact, he wound up with one reception for negative four yards in Week 3 in Tennessee). He rebounded in a big way to become Rivers' favorite target down the stretch, and a big reason why the Chargers rallied to make the playoffs last year. Similar to J. Thomas of the Broncos, the sample size is indeed small, but given the system and the way Allen plays, he should be okay. Unlike Rivers' former favorite WR, Vincent Jackson, Allen is more of a possession, yards after catch guy rather than the downfield big play WR. He racks up plenty of targets and has even more value in PPR leagues. Draft him with confidence.
Bust: Ryan Mathews, RB
16 games played by Mathews. That might have been the most surprising stat in the NFL last year. After being hyped coming out of Fresno State in the draft, Mathews has failed to live up to his potential due to his constant injury concerns. 12, 14, and 12 were his games played numbers before last year. To his credit, when he's healthy, he truly is a good RB. He proved it last year as he finished with 1,255 yards and seven total TDs, despite sharing time with Danny Woodhead. I just don't trust him not getting injured again. The timeshare with Woodhead is also a concern as Woodhead actually finished with more total TDs (eight), then Mathews last year. PPR league people might even take Woodhead above Mathews. If you do feel the need to draft him, it is an absolute must that you also draft Woodhead, and possibly even Donald Brown.
Sleeper: Ladarius Green, TE
Aka, the second coming of Antonio Gates. Green is 6'6", 240 lbs., and is faster and more athletic than Gates at this point in their careers. Gates is still there and will probably start the year listed as the "first" tight end. Prior to last year, however, Gates was showing signs of wearing down (10 games played in 2010, 13 in 2011, 15 in 2012). He's certainly lost a step and I think Green becomes the guy to stretch the field. San Diego might run a lot of two TE sets this year with the receivers behind Allen being less than impressive. The prediction for Green's coronation might be a year too early, but his upside is ridiculous. If he's given the opportunity, Green could be one of the best value picks in 2014.
Bottom Line
San Diego made strides last year under McCoy, particularly towards the end of the year, and I think they bring that momentum into this year. Someone from the backfield will have a good game each week, but good luck figuring out who. Allen is safe and, while Green is the up and comer, Gates should still see his share of red zone looks. The opportunity is there for someone to snag that WR2 spot, but I don't think anyone makes considerable fantasy noise from that position.
Matty O
Thomas has, surprisingly quietly, turned into one of the best WRs in the league. While he might not have the public reputation of a Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant, he puts up the stats that prove he's at least in the top five WRs in the game. Even with all the mouths to feed on the Broncos, you can bet that Thomas will be able to get his. He finished second last year in fantasy points, with only Josh Gordon beating him out. Despite this, he's still ranked behind Megatron and I could see people being tempted to take someone like Dez, Julio Jones, or AJ Green ahead of Thomas. I would still probably take Megatron based on his track record, but would definitely take Thomas number two. He should have another great season.
Yes, the sample size is small, but J. Thomas is in the same mold of these big, physical, athletic tight ends (Jimmy Graham, Gronk), that have taken over the league as of late. Given his build and place in this offense, I think it's fair to expect great production going forward. J. Thomas, thanks to the potent WRs on the outside, will almost always have favorable matchups particularly in the middle of the field. He's money in the red zone, finishing with 12 TDs last year, third only to Vernon Davis and Graham among tight ends. He missed two games during the middle of the year last year, but finished perfectly fine. While he has room to improve, I still don't think he touches Graham or a healthy Gronk's numbers, but should settle in as the number two or three TE for fantasy this year.
Bust: Montee Ball, RB
I've been going back and forth on Ball, and it's certainly possible he could have a good year (just look at Peyton's history with running backs), but I don't trust him as a top 15 back, which is where he's being drafted currently. He finished the year strong, but had a case of fumble-itis early on. The main reason he didn't see as much playing time as he should have was his poor pass protection, which is fairly important when your franchise QB is 38 and not the most fleet of foot. Moreno might be gone, but that doesn't automatically make him a better pass blocker. If he doesn't perform in that area, the coaching staff won't hesitate to pull back his snaps. Heck, he couldn't start over Knowshon Moreno last year who was pretty much a bust prior to 2013. The opportunity is there for Ball, given the explosiveness of this offense, but there are concerns.
Sleeper: Cody Latimer, WR
Emmanuel Sanders would also fit this label, but let me use this space to hype up Latimer. Latimer is likely unknown due to the college team he played for (Indiana), but this guy is the real deal. Latimer is another big, strong WR (6'2", 215 lbs.) that will probably see limited snaps to start the year, but hopefully gets more responsibility later on in the year. Wes Welker has not exactly been a picture of health lately, so an injury there could open up room for Latimer in three WR sets. Latimer finished third in the Big Ten last year for receiving yards, topping 1,000 yards and racking up nine TDs. This sleeper prediction might be a year too soon, but if something happens to either Welker, D. Thomas, or Sanders, Latimer will be a hot commodity.
Bottom Line
Picking anyone in this offense is probably a good pick. I might be down on Ball, but like I said, the opportunity is there and it's possible he turns in a top 15 season. On the defensive side of the ball, you have to be excited about all the new acquisitions they made. They had their moments last year, but finished middle of the pack fantasy wise. I think they turn that around and are a safe bet to wind up as a top 10 fantasy defense.
Kansas City Chiefs
Studs: Jamaal Charles, RB
Fantasy MVP from last year, Charles showed explosiveness throughout the year. As an added bonus, especially for those PPR people, he racked up 70 receptions as he became quite the security blanket for game manager Alex Smith. He is the center piece of their entire offense, which is extremely rare to say about a RB in this day and age. Knile Davis, the RB behind him, showed flashes of what he can do, but Charles should be able to keep that hype at bay for 2014. Charles will most likely be one of the first three picks in any draft, and deservedly so.
Bust: Defense/Special Teams
This unit came out of nowhere last year to finish as the top fantasy defense. Unfortunately, I don't think they stay there and even drop out of the top 15. For starters, they lost their top corner in Brandon Flowers to division rival San Diego. They scored a ridiculous 11 TDs, which will be extremely hard to repeat no matter the defense. They also put up some absolute duds down the stretch last year. They put in great performances in Weeks 14 and 15 against Washington and Oakland, but Washington had pretty much given up at that point and Oakland is hardly scary on offense. Around those performances, they put up -1 (Denver), -7 (San Diego), 1 (Denver), 0 (Indianapolis), 2 (San Diego). Ouch. And don't even bring up the disaster that was their playoff game. Oakland's offense should be better this year and Denver and San Diego will do what they do. I think the drop off could be extreme for this unit. I don't say this about many units coming off a big year, but I wouldn't even draft these guys.
Sleeper: De'Anthony Thomas, RB
I'm trying to avoid putting none in categories like I did last year, so I'll go with the highest upside guy on this team. While I don't truly see any real sleepers on this team, I could see Thomas going off in one or two games this year. He'll be one of the smaller guys on the field, but he is crazy fast and can break off a big one at any time. He's listed as a RB, but will more likely be used as a pass catcher than a runner. Screens and short passes with the hope of yards after catch is what you're hoping for with Thomas. He'll definitely see time as a returner for this team, but his offensive snaps will be limited. Look for a couple Tavon Austin-like performances from last year, where Thomas maybe gets only three or four touches, but turns them into long gains and TDs.
Bottom Line
As you can tell, I don't have a lot of optimism when it comes to this Chiefs team. Charles will still put up numbers, but there's little to be excited about beyond him. Surprisingly, they chose not to aggressively draft anything to help out the offensive side of the ball. That costs them this year.
Oakland Raiders
Studs: None
I know I said I didn't want to put none in these categories, but who would you put here? Maurice Jones-Drew is the only one who comes close, but his recent seasons haven't been anything close to great.
Bust: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB
His recent seasons haven't been great and I don't think this one will be either. Even at a lower than normal draft position for him, I still don't think he's worth it. His best days are behind him, and he should concede carries to Darren McFadden and Latavius Murphy. MJD might become Oakland's goal line back, though you have to wonder how many chances he'll get down there. He'll be a decent FLEX fill in during bye weeks, and possibly even trade bait given the reputation of his name. Still, I would wait until late until considering him.
Sleeper: James Jones, WR
Here's hoping for the 2012 Jones, not the 2013 Jones. In 2012, with Jordy Nelson missing time due to injury, Jones posted 784 yards and a surprising 14 TDs for the Packers. Obviously there is a significant downgrade at QB, but I could see Jones making noise this year. The Raiders will be trailing in a lot of games and Jones may avoid the other team's top corner as they put him on either Denarius Moore or Rod Streater. I certainly don't have a lot of confidence in this choice, but someone has to catch the ball for the Raiders. Limited upside here, but could develop into the clear number one receiver for the Raiders.
Bottom Line
Lots of questions here for the Raiders. Who will be the starting QB? What will the WR depth chart look like? How will carries be split, if at all? Too many questions to feel safe about drafting anyone on this team. Someone could emerge from the backfield so that will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the start of the season. While I wish no ill will on anyone, if McFadden or MJD were to get injured before the season started, that would certainly boost the other one's stock.
San Diego Chargers
Studs: Phillip Rivers, QB, Keenan Allen, WR
After an atrocious 2012, Rivers bounced under new coach Mike McCoy in 2013 to finish 6th in fantasy points last year. Now in his second season with McCoy, I expect Rivers to maintain that level of success, if not eclipse that. He has great skill players around him and, as long as he takes care of the ball, should return to top 10 status this year at QB. He'll still make some head scratching decisions at times, but look for a more consistent Rivers in 2014.
Allen is one reason why Rivers will maintain his high ranking. Allen eclipsed 1,000 yards and scored eight TDs as a rookie last year, despite doing next to nothing the first three games of the season (in fact, he wound up with one reception for negative four yards in Week 3 in Tennessee). He rebounded in a big way to become Rivers' favorite target down the stretch, and a big reason why the Chargers rallied to make the playoffs last year. Similar to J. Thomas of the Broncos, the sample size is indeed small, but given the system and the way Allen plays, he should be okay. Unlike Rivers' former favorite WR, Vincent Jackson, Allen is more of a possession, yards after catch guy rather than the downfield big play WR. He racks up plenty of targets and has even more value in PPR leagues. Draft him with confidence.
Bust: Ryan Mathews, RB
16 games played by Mathews. That might have been the most surprising stat in the NFL last year. After being hyped coming out of Fresno State in the draft, Mathews has failed to live up to his potential due to his constant injury concerns. 12, 14, and 12 were his games played numbers before last year. To his credit, when he's healthy, he truly is a good RB. He proved it last year as he finished with 1,255 yards and seven total TDs, despite sharing time with Danny Woodhead. I just don't trust him not getting injured again. The timeshare with Woodhead is also a concern as Woodhead actually finished with more total TDs (eight), then Mathews last year. PPR league people might even take Woodhead above Mathews. If you do feel the need to draft him, it is an absolute must that you also draft Woodhead, and possibly even Donald Brown.
Sleeper: Ladarius Green, TE
Aka, the second coming of Antonio Gates. Green is 6'6", 240 lbs., and is faster and more athletic than Gates at this point in their careers. Gates is still there and will probably start the year listed as the "first" tight end. Prior to last year, however, Gates was showing signs of wearing down (10 games played in 2010, 13 in 2011, 15 in 2012). He's certainly lost a step and I think Green becomes the guy to stretch the field. San Diego might run a lot of two TE sets this year with the receivers behind Allen being less than impressive. The prediction for Green's coronation might be a year too early, but his upside is ridiculous. If he's given the opportunity, Green could be one of the best value picks in 2014.
Bottom Line
San Diego made strides last year under McCoy, particularly towards the end of the year, and I think they bring that momentum into this year. Someone from the backfield will have a good game each week, but good luck figuring out who. Allen is safe and, while Green is the up and comer, Gates should still see his share of red zone looks. The opportunity is there for someone to snag that WR2 spot, but I don't think anyone makes considerable fantasy noise from that position.
Matty O
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