Houston Texans
Studs: Andre Johnson, WR, Arian Foster, RB
Everyone, including Johnson himself, wishes he was on a different team. After going through a mini-holdout where he tried to get the Texans to trade him to a Super Bowl contender, Johnson will once again line up as the top WR for the Texans. Despite playing with average QB talent on a run first team, Johnson continues to put up stellar numbers. He caught 109 balls for 1,407 yards and five TDs last year for the last place Texans. You'd like the TD numbers to be higher, but the Texans were putrid last year in every phase of the game. He'll once again have average QB talent throwing him the ball, but that doesn't seem to effect his numbers. He's getting up there in age, but I still think Johnson has two or three more good fantasy seasons left.
Spoiler alert, he'll be in the bust section as well but let's consider the good first when drafting Foster. Prior to an injury shortened 2013, he had three straight years of 1,200+ yards with at least 10 TDs. The Texans are still a run first team and Foster will probably be relied on to carry the load. The defense should be much improved from last year, allowing more offensive possessions and carries for Foster. He's also a talented back catching passes, boosting his value in PPR leagues. He'll still cost you a high pick, but it won't be in the top 5 like he used to be.
Bust: Foster, RB
The bust, or risk factor for Foster, is his injury history. Back in 2011, Foster suffered a hamstring injury which cost him three games. In 2013, he suffered a back injury in Week 9 and was out the rest of the year. His hamstring was aggravated once again this summer during training camp and he has just now gotten back with the team to continue practicing. Recurring hamstring injuries are not good news, particularly when they flare up this close to the start of the season. I doubt Foster will see any preseason time as the coaching staff will be very cautious with him. When he's on the field, the talent is certainly there, but the injury risk is off the charts. Draft him at your own peril.
Sleeper: Jonathan Grimes, RB
If you are going to take a chance on Foster, make sure your draft this dude. Grimes has emerged as the backup for Foster should he go down. While Grimes hasn't really done anything too impressive in his short NFL career, he did survive the RB cuts the Texans made as Andre Brown and Dennis Johnson were both kicked to the curb. Grimes is easily one of the top RB handcuffs this season.
Bottom Line
Not too much to get excited about here with the Texans. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can simply manage the game, then the offense might put up better numbers this year. The defense should be better, but I'm not ready to call them a viable option yet for fantasy purposes. Their front seven is great when Brian Cushing is healthy, but their secondary has loads of questions.
Indianapolis Colts
Studs: Andrew Luck, QB, Reggie Wayne, WR
2014 has a chance to be Luck's best year yet as a pro. In his rookie season, the yards were there, but he threw 18 interceptions. Last year, the yards dipped, but he also cut his interceptions in half. He still lagged behind the elite QBs in TDs as he only threw for 23 last year and his rookie year. This year, he has Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen back from injury, Coby Fleener is still there, and Hakeem Nicks is looking to bounce back. I think his yardage totals and TDs go up as he chases the elite QB numbers in a relatively weak division.
Considering Wayne hadn't missed a game since his rookie season (2001), I wouldn't be too worried about him coming back from an injury that cost him most of last year. Wayne could also go on the sleeper list considering teammate T.Y. Hilton is being taken ahead of him in drafts. Let's take a look back at Luck's rookie season when he had Wayne for a full 16 games. Wayne had a ridiculous 194 targets (most in his career) and 1,355 yards (second most in his career). By the way, Peyton Manning happened to be the QB Wayne used to catch balls from. Luck will continue to pepper Wayne with targets and he'll continue to post solid numbers, particularly in PPR. Wayne is easily the safest of the Colt's WRs.
Bust: Hilton, WR
Hilton will be the guy starting opposite Wayne. Hilton is one of those boom or bust guys, evidenced by his extremely up and down 2013. His ups were awesome as he posted 26 against Seattle and a 30 in Houston in Week 9. The rest of his games, to be quite honest, were pretty quiet. This included a stretch during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14, 15, and 16) where he put up yardage totals of 7, 78, and 52 with zero TDs in those three games. Maybe he does better as a number two WR and maybe Wayne has lost a step, but I think Hilton is being drafted far too high for how inconsistent he is. If you do draft him, I would advise selling him high after his first huge game.
Sleeper: Trent Richardson, RB
Some people might be rolling their eyes already, but call me a T-Rich believer. There's no denying that his 2013 was statistically awful, but he still has that big frame and can catch the ball surprisingly well for his size. He made the switch from Cleveland to Indy in the middle of the season (a trade I'm still confused by), so it's possible the transition period was simply too tough on him. Now he has a full off season with a healthy Colts' offense to try and learn the offense better. He's undoubtedly big enough to be their goal line bruiser, and TDs were what made him such a big fantasy hit in the first place (11 his rookie year in Cleveland). Richardson might be the player with the most split opinion this year, but I'm leaning more towards his rookie year production than his 2013 production.
Bottom Line
The Colts have the best team in this division by far. Luck, Hilton, and Richardson are all young players who might get even better this season. Wayne, and to a lesser extent Nicks, will give Luck options to throw to. The defense isn't anything impressive but that's not too much of a concern with the firepower they have on offense. I'm not saying this offense will be Peyton Manning-like when he was in Indy, but it'll be close.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Studs: None
Have you seen their roster?
Bust: Toby Gerhart, RB
Maybe he turns into the workhorse for this team, but I'm not buying it yet. Even if he does turn into the workhorse, I'm not sure he puts up the numbers necessary to warrant his fifth round selection. He's great for around the goal line, but it's fair to question how often the Jags will even wind up there this year. It also wouldn't surprise me if some kind of running back by committee develops with Gerhart, Jordan Todman, and Storm Johnson. This will be Gerhart's first full time starting gig after backing up Adrian Peterson, but I don't think he's the answer in the backfield for the Jags.
Sleeper: Blake Bortles, QB
This all hinges on if the Jags are serious about their whole "redshirting" of Bortles. Supposedly, they will make Bortles sit for an entire year, allowing Chad Henne to play the Jags into last place. If the front office ever wakes up, however, and puts Bortles in, I think he could have an outstanding rookie year even with the lack of weapons on the Jags. He's the best QB to be drafted in the past two years and the Jags were smart to take him so high. If the Jags allow him to play a full 16 games, I think he finishes in the top 12 for fantasy QBs. Pretty good for a guy that might go undrafted in your league.
Bottom Line
This team is all about the future. Like I said, if the redshirt thing is true, then the Jags will be a true contender for the number one overall pick this year. Unless Bortles emerges, I would stay away from anyone on this roster.
Tennessee Titans
Studs: None
The Titans and Jags are almost exactly alike. New RB situation, veteran QB preventing talented rookie from playing, skilled but inconsistent WRs, and bad defenses.
Bust: Any Titans WR
The three fantasy relevant ones on this roster are Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, and Nate Washington. Wright might be considered for PPR leagues, but he still only had two TDs last year on 94 receptions. Hunter probably has the most potential out of this group, but people were saying the same thing last year and he didn't perform. Washington has a good game here or there, but nothing to write home about. I don't think any of them excel and probably cancel out any significant numbers that any one of them might get. Hunter would probably be the one to own out of this group considering his ceiling is highest, but I wouldn't feel good about any of these guys.
Sleeper: Delanie Walker, TE
Again, I remind you to wait on TE if you can't grab Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, or Rob Gronkowski. After playing second fiddle to Vernon Davis for years in San Francisco, Walker finally got his chance at the full time starting job in Tennessee last year. He wound up with 60 catches, 571 yards, and six TDs. That was good for 12th among TEs last year for fantasy points, meaning he could be a starter in a 12 team league. Ken Whisenhunt comes over from the TE happy Chargers and I wouldn't be surprised if he brings some of that TE emphasis with him. Walker's not the biggest or fastest of all guys, but he can put up numbers if given the chance. I think he improves on his numbers from last year and moves up into the top 10 for TEs.
Bottom Line
Like the Jags, this team is all about the future. Bishop Sankey and Hunter might turn into early rounders in a couple years, but for now, it's best to look elsewhere for solid fantasy talent, though I think Sankey puts up decent numbers this year.
Matty O
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