Buffalo Bills
Studs: CJ Spiller, RB
If Spiller were used correctly, he would probably have better numbers and less injuries. The new coaching staff in Buffalo seems intent on making Spiller a between the tackles runner, which doesn't suit his small stature. He does his best out in space where he is as dangerous as anyone. Last year he was nagged by a persistent ankle injury, but in 2012, he ran for 1,244 yards, 6 TDs, and caught 43 passes for an offensively challenged Buffalo team. His touches might be low, but he has the home run ability to take any carry or catch to the house in the blink of an eye. Due to his low volume with Fred Jackson around, he won't be the most consistent of all players. Still, health pending, he's a good bet to go over 1,000 yards rushing again with at least 40 catches. There's risk in drafting him, but is it any more risk than the RBs directly after him (Frank Gore, Andre Ellington, Trent Richardson)?
Bust: Sammy Watkins, WR
The highest WR taken in this year's draft, Watkins has decent size and speed for days. The problem is he's still a rookie and has an average at best QB throwing him the ball on a run first team. He'll likely get the opponent's top corner week in and week out and see defenses shading his way. Apart from being from Clemson, Watkins shares the big play ability that Spiller also has. In single coverage, Watkins is a good bet to beat his man with pure speed for a 50 or 60 yard bomb on any given play. Can EJ Manuel make the read and get him the ball is the important question. I say no, more often than not, as Watkins struggles to find consistency. I think there's one or two weeks where he goes off and everyone proclaims him as the second coming of Jerry Rice, but the other weeks he'll put up weak numbers in a weak aerial attack.
Sleeper: Fred Jackson, RB
Run, run, run. Even if Spiller is healthy, Jackson will get his. Jackson remains an ageless wonder, mainly due to the fact that he is able to run in a committee alongside Spiller, and now Bryce Brown. He is Buffalo's unquestioned goal line back and would get close to full time duties if Spiller were to go down. Jackson won't bust that big gain like Spiller, but he'll give you nice chunks that lead to a score. He's also quite adept in the passing game as well, securing at least 31 catches every year since his rookie season. He's a great bargain in the 8th round and needs to be owned by all Spiller owners as well.
Bottom Line
Lots of potential for this Buffalo squad, but I'm not sure they make it all gel. They're still looking for their franchise QB, and I doubt they have it in Manuel. The skill position players are there for this offense, but the ability to make all these parts click is not.
Miami Dolphins
Studs: None
The Dolphins actually have quite a few similarities to the Bills. They both have young QBs, backfield committees that limit their running backs' value, and a big name WR that will not reach their full potential on their respective squads.
Bust: Knowshon Moreno, RB
The Dolphins signed Moreno this summer, but Peyton Manning didn't come with him. That's an issue. Manning, as he's done with many RBs in the past, turned Moreno into an absolute superstar. He finished as the fifth best fantasy RB last year, while holding off the much hyped Montee Ball in the process. In Miami, however, he'll see more stacked boxes and Ryan Tannehill standing next to him instead of Manning. Prior to last year, Moreno hadn't played a full season since his 2009 rookie year, played only 15 games combined from 2011-12, never rushed for over 1,000 yards, and lost a fumble in every season prior to last. Whether it's injury or performance, I think Moreno takes a big jump back, enough to make him a non factor in fantasy this year. Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas, and Mike Gillislee will also be in the mix for touches as well.
Sleeper: Mike Wallace, WR
Believe it or not, Wallace actually set a career high in receptions last year in his first year with the Dolphins. His 930 yards were third best in his five year career, but his five TDs were the lowest. With someone as explosive as Wallace, you'd expect the yards and TDs to come once the receptions start racking up. He had an extremely disappointing debut with one catch for 15 yards, but played well down the stretch. While Tannehill might not make the best decisions, he does have the arm to get the ball down field to Wallace. Wallace is the unquestioned number one option in Miami and should continue to see plenty of looks. He also won't cost you as high of a pick like he did when he was in Pittsburgh.
Bottom Line
Much of the success of this offense centers around Tannehill's progress. He's improving, but far from being elite. Charles Clay turned into a nice safety valve for him last year and Moreno should at least be able to keep some of the other backs fresher. This team doesn't excite me fantasy wise in 2014, but they could have a few good players a couple years from now.
New England Patriots
Studs: Tom Brady, QB, Rob Gronkowski, TE (health pending)
Brady's 2013 was a rocky one. Without Gronk early on, Shane Vereen going down, and a bunch of rookie WRs, Brady struggled, as many QBs would. His consistency was better down the stretch, however, once more players got healthy and the rooks started to get it. 2014 looks much brighter. For starters, it looks like Brady will have Gronk much sooner than last year, if not by Week 1. Vereen, their best receiving back, is once again healthy. All the rookies have had a full season and another offseason to get better. They also got Brandon LaFell, a bigger, veteran WR for Brady on the outside. I think Brady easily gets back into the top 10, and maybe even pushes top five if Gronk stays healthy.
Health is the only thing that can hold Gronk back. If you were to turn injuries off like in a video game, the argument could be made for taking Gronk over Jimmy Graham. Alas, Gronk's injury problems are well documented as he has played a total of 18 games the last two years. Gronk's return was highly anticipated last year after he missed the first six weeks of the season. He came in, did work for a few weeks, then got injured again in Week 14 making his status for the start of this season uncertain. When he plays, he's a target and TD monster as he's close to impossible to cover given his size. His third round draft position makes him a bargain if he stays healthy, and a bust if he doesn't. Are you willing to risk missing the playoffs for a chance to win the whole thing?
Bust: Stevan Ridley, RB
Oh how the mighty have fallen. After being picked in the first or second rounds last year, Ridley struggled to pick up yards, but was excellent at giving the ball away. Coach Bill Belichick benched Ridley in favor of Brandon Bolden and LeGarrette Blount with Vereen injured. Ridley wound up with a pedestrian 773 yards and seven TDs. Even with Blount gone, I'm not sure how Ridley is going in the 6th/7th round. Rookie James White will push for between the tackles work and Vereen being healthy will limit Ridley's snaps. Ridley hardly ever catches the ball, so his value drops for PPR leagues. I would shy away from Ridley, as he's one fumble away from being benched for a game or more.
Sleeper: Shane Vereen, RB
For PPR, Vereen is a monster. Even though he missed eight games last year, he still racked up 47 catches. He's quick in space and is good after the catch as well. The WRs on this team might be more experienced, but still aren't the greatest bunch in the world. I think Vereen becomes the preferred target for Brady after Gronk. He does still carry value in standard leagues as he's likely to get you solid all purpose yardage numbers, but PPR is where he really shines. I would consider Vereen a RB1 in PPR leagues and a RB2/FLEX in standard leagues.
Bottom Line
The favorite once again to win the division, the Patriots have talent all over the field and should see their defensive unit move into the top five this year. The one warning I will give with the Pats is they, maybe more than anyone in the league, are extremely hard to predict fantasy wise. For example, you know the Saints are going to pass to win and a team like the Chiefs are going to run to win pretty much every game. The Pats, meanwhile, are happy running it 50 times one week and passing it 50 times the next if it means winning the game. It's great for their real life team, not so much for us fantasy owners. Just be sure to keep an eye on the rumblings throughout the week so you know if they will be pass heavy, run heavy, or balanced that week. Otherwise you might have started Danny Amendola, but Brady only throws it 12 times.
New York Jets
Studs: None
Bust: Any Jets RB
While the Jets added Chris Johnson in the offseason, I'm not so sure he's even the starter. Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell both had their moments last year, though neither has the impressive track record that Johnson has. Like any running back committee they will eat into each other's value. Johnson is probably the most valuable out of this group as he can run and catch, and can still burn people with his speed, though those situations are harder to come by nowadays. Joique Bell and Shane Vereen are going right after Johnson and I would rather have either of them. Ivory will probably be their between the tackles grinder but is far from being an elite talent.
Sleeper: Eric Decker, WR
I've said that Emmanuel Sanders is an upgrade from Decker in Denver (try saying that ten times fast), but that doesn't mean he carries no value. The Peyton Manning numbers are hard to compare to any team, so let's take a look at Decker's 2011. This was the Tebow year so footballs were hardly flying all over the place. Still, Decker averaged 13.9 yards per catch (more than he did in Manning's first season in Denver) and found the end zone eight times. Geno Smith and Michael Vick are both better passers than Tebow and Decker will now be the number one guy after playing behind Demaryius Thomas in Denver. The upside is limited because it's the Jets but his floor is safe. He's a big, strong WR who should lead this Jets team in targets by a significant margin.
Bottom Line
The Jets are the Jets. They want to win in the trenches and by playing great defense. Their games probably won't be that exciting but Rex Ryan could care less. I think Decker is the only one who carries nice value on this team offensively, while their defense should improve from their awful fantasy and real life season last year.
Matty O
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