St. Louis Rams
Studs: Zac Stacy, RB
Stacy came out of nowhere last year, as he finally got his shot once running backs Daryl Richardson, Isaiah Pead, and Benny Cunningham all faltered. He became the Rams' workhorse and became one of the rare players who didn't have to worry about a second back cutting into his carries. He finished 14th in rushing yards last year, despite starting only 12 games. He managed to score seven rushing TDs, all while playing in the toughest division in the NFL on a team with a passing offense that did very little. Given his body build and youth, there shouldn't be any concern about overworking him, at least at this point in his career. With a full training camp as the starter, he should be even better this year, despite being in a division with San Francisco, Seattle, and Arizona.
Bust: Stacy
Stacy is mainly here because he was the only one to do consistently well last year for this team. There's also the fact that Stacy will likely cost you a second or third round pick this year, compared to picking him up off waivers last year. Prior to Stacy emerging, the Rams were willing to use a full on rotation of running backs, so it will be interesting to see if they go that route if Stacy struggles. Tre Mason, the Rams' third round pick this year, is also getting a lot of hype as a guy who could cut into Stacy's carries. Mason was the workhorse on the Auburn team that lost in the National Championship game. I think it will take a string of bad games from Stacy for him to lose the job, but if he does, all bets are off.
Sleeper: Sam Bradford, QB
Bradford probably won't be drafted in most leagues, but if you're doing a QB week by week rotation, or your first round pick goes down with injury, Bradford is the guy to watch. Heck, he might even be a solid starter for some fantasy teams this year week in and week out. Certainly injury is always a concern with him, but when he plays, he's actually pretty good. Before going down last year, he passed for 1687 yards, 14 TDs, and only four interceptions in seven games. The Rams bolstered the offensive line by drafting Greg Robinson number two overall. They also added Mason, and already have Stacy, Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, and Kenny Britt. The skill players are good, so now it's up to Bradford to get it done.
Bottom Line
The Rams should be better on both sides of the ball this year. There's a lot of potential here, but not a lot of sure things so don't expect the world from the skill players on this team. The defense/special teams unit is one that could really emerge. Their defense, particularly their front seven, is one of the best in the NFL, and Austin is a dangerous returner. The defense should finish in the top 10 for fantasy, possibly even top 5.
Seattle Seahawks
Studs: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Defense/Special Teams
Lynch, like Stacy, is one of those rare backs that is the unquestioned starter for his team. Similar to the Rams, the Seahawks are big fans of running the football. Lynch is a beast of a man, known for breaking tackles and busting big runs in the process. Also, given his size, his 36 receptions are a bit of a surprise and a nice addition for PPR leagues. He's a touchdown machine and has an offensive line in front of him that is very physical. With Percy Harvin being fully healthy, it will be interesting to see if they try to throw the ball around more this year, or possibly even give Harvin carries out of the backfield (they did in Minnesota when Adrian Peterson was back there). Still, he should continue to see a large amount of carries this year.
What more can be said about this defense? Russell Wilson and Lynch did what they needed to do, but the defense is what took them to and won them the Super Bowl last year. Harvin showed what he can bring to the return game, and they'll have him available right from the start this year. Had it not been for the surprising number of TDs the Chiefs defense scored last year, the Seahawks unit would have finished first in fantasy points last year. They're decent on the road, but absolutely dominant at home with that crowd behind them. It's hard for fantasy defenses to repeat as top units, but expect this one to be top 3.
Bust: Percy Harvin, WR
Harvin always gets plenty of hype every year, and this year is no different. His explosiveness is certainly there, but injuries have plagued him his whole career. The 'Hawks will say that Harvin will be used more and they will try to get the ball in his hands, but I still think they pound the football. I'm also not the biggest believer in Wilson when it comes to making explosive plays. Wilson's calling card is not making the big mistake, rather than trying to make the big play. Even if Harvin doesn't get injured, I just don't think he sees enough looks to justify drafting him as a WR2/FLEX. He might be nice trade bait given his name, and will be a nice asset if your league awards points for return yards. Other than that though, he's a big risk/reward pick.
Sleeper: Paul Richardson, WR
Richardson, the Seahawks' second round pick in this year's draft, is a small, pure speed receiver. I still bet on Harvin getting injured this year, leaving Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse as the only two WRs ahead of Robinson. Robinson will be someone you can snag off of waivers and I think he makes some noise if/when Harvin goes down.
Bottom Line
Despite being the Super Bowl champs, there's not that much fantasy gold to be found here. Wilson will provide you with a solid, but unextraordinary option at QB. Harvin has the potential to go off, but is still a big risk/reward. The defense will give you a great option at defense and Lynch should continue to do what he does.
Arizona Cardinals
Studs: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Michael Floyd, WR
If these two had a decent QB, we might be talking about them as the best WR duo in the league, ahead of Atlanta and Chicago. As it stands, however, Carson Palmer is still the guy throwing them the ball. Despite this, they both managed to put up decent numbers last year. Obviously Fitz is the more well known of the two, but Floyd actually finished with more yards than Fitz last year, but half as many TDs. These two will be very similar to what Washington has formed with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Floyd and Jackson are two guys who can kill you deep at any time. Garcon and Fitz can do the same, but are more reliable pass catchers in the middle of the field and have the ability to run more routes.
Based on name alone, Fitz will get drafted ahead of Floyd, but I actually think Floyd outperforms Fitz in fantasy. I think Floyd racks up a few more TDs and once again, out gains Fitz in receiving yards. Fitz is still the guy for reception numbers, so his value gets a bump in PPR leagues, but Floyd is a dangerous up and coming receiver. The only thing I would be wary about with these two is one going off one week, then the other, then the other, depending on who the top corner is covering. These two compliment each other very well, however, as Fitz could get eight catches for 90 yards with Floyd only needing three catches for 105.
Bust: Larry Fitzgerald, WR
See above. If their draft positions were switched, I think both would be drafted correctly.
Sleeper: Andre Ellington, RB
This is mainly for PPR, as I don't think Ellington outperforms his draft position in standard, but this guy is the real deal. The problem is that it seems like everyone in the world can see that except the Cardinals' coaching staff. Despite clearly being the more explosive player, the coaching staff continued to give Rashard Mendenhall a large amount of snaps. Mendenhall is gone, but Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor are still hanging around. The good news for PPR people, however, is the staff does realize that he is a good pass catcher and dangerous in open space. He's not going to rack up big TD numbers, as I doubt he sees any looks inside the five yard line, but he's far and away the best RB on this roster. If the staff unleashes him, I could see him easily being a top 10 back in PPR.
Bottom Line
There's great skill on the offensive side of the ball, but once again, Palmer is the distributor to all these players. That could be problematic. The two receivers are probably the safest, with Ellington needing the help of the coaching staff to outperform his draft position. Like the other teams in this division, the Cards' defense/ST should be great, and give you a top 10 unit at that position.
San Francisco 49ers
Studs: Vernon Davis, TE, Michael Crabtree, WR, Colin Kaepernick, QB
Davis struggled in 2012, but bounced back in a big way last year, particularly when Crabtree was out of the lineup. His yards and receptions aren't the most impressive things in the world, but his TD total (13 last year) helps out his total fantasy points. He's being drafted behind Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, and Gronk, but I think he finishes ahead of one of these guys. You should be able to fill out your WRs and RBs before drafting him, so the value is there for the number two tight end from last year.
Crabtree has come to develop great chemistry with Kaepernick since being drafted in 2009. Injury killed his numbers last year, but in 2012, he played all 16 games and finished with 85 receptions, 1,105 yards, and nine TDs. His performance in the playoffs, particularly against Green Bay (8 catches, 125 yards) was encouraging coming into this year. Anquan Boldin and newly acquired Stevie Johnson should make this passing offense even more dangerous, and possibly draw even more coverage away from Crabtree. Just don't start him when Richard Sherman is playing.
Kap had a terrible start to last year, posting single digit fantasy games in three of his first five games. He played well down the stretch though, throwing only three interceptions after their bye week. His legs always gives him a chance to put up great fantasy numbers, though I still think his passing skills are mediocre, leading to the single digit duds that he posts from time to time. When the 49er offense is clicking and the read option is in full swing, however, Kap becomes one of the most dangerous QBs in the league. I think with the weapons around him, he has a better year than 2013 and finishes in the top 6 for QBs.
Bust: Frank Gore, RB
One of these years, Gore will break down. He's been extremely resistant to doing so however. Gore, once again, eclipsed 1000 yards last year, and added nine TDs for good measure. Most RBs experience a rather sharp decline after the age of 30 and I'll say that this is the season it hits Gore. The good news for Gore is the Jim Harbaugh is committed to running the ball and the Niners offensive line is one of the best in the league. With the wealth of RB talent behind him though, I wouldn't be surprised if the Niners executed some kind of pitch count, where Gore gets his carries cut back. I've thought his decline was going to come for a couple seasons now, so it's entirely possible I'm wrong on this one, but the drop off has to happen at some point.
Sleeper: Stevie Johnson, WR
Despite being billed as the number two WR behind Boldin and Crabtree, I think he'll put up solid numbers. Keep in mind Johnson was the number one WR in Buffalo and put up three straight 1,000 yard seasons from 2010-2012. The talent that he'll be playing with in San Fran is also extremely better than what he ever had in Buffalo. Crabtree will almost always see the other team's top corner, giving Johnson an opportunity to get favorable matchups. He'll act more like a slot receiver than the big play role he had in Buffalo, but I think, particularly in PPR, Johnson puts up respectable numbers given the low draft pick it will cost you.
Bottom Line
The Niners have the most fantasy relevant skill players in this division. I actually think, at least from a fantasy perspective, that the Niners have the weakest defense in the division and could finish outside the top 10 with Bowman probably not available until the middle of the season and Aldon Smith's uncertain status. They'll need all the offensive firepower they can get when they see their other division rivals.
Matty O
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